Shopify Stock Soared Last Year. Can It Do It Again?
01/08/2026 09:31 PM • Shopify's stock surged over 50% in 2025 driven by accelerating revenue growth and excitement around agentic commerce powered by AI. While the company demonstrates strong fundamentals with 32% Q3 revenue growth and substantial free cash flow, the stock's high valuation (P/E of 123, forward P/E of 89) leaves little room for error. The author expresses caution, noting that much of the upside may already be priced in and warning of potential headwinds from competitive pressures and management's guidance for Q4 growth deceleration.
SHOP - While Shopify demonstrates strong business fundamentals with accelerating revenue growth (32% in Q3), robust free cash flow, and promising AI initiatives, the author maintains a neutral stance due to concerns about overvaluation (P/E of 123), limited margin for error, competitive pressures in digital payments, and management's guidance for growth deceleration in Q4. The stock's 50%+ 2025 run-up is viewed as having already priced in much of the upside potential.