State of Market: Open 01/14/26
U.S. stocks open softer as metals extend gains; bond prices firm and oil edges up
Banks headline earnings while gold and silver surge; policy uncertainty around the Fed and credit-card rules meets signs of resilient consumers and sticky producer costs.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
•
Markets opened on a cautious note Wednesday, with major U.S. equity ETFs trading modestly lower while haven metals extended their run and oil ticked higher. At the open, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded at 690.88 versus a prior close of 693.77, down roughly 0.4%. The Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) changed hands at 621.79 versus 626.24, down about 0.7%, underperforming the Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) at 490.83 versus 491.94 (-0.2%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at 261.05 versus 261.35 (-0.1%).
The backdrop blends mixed macro signals with sector-specific catalysts. Metals rallied—gold and silver continue to print elevated levels—while crude oil advanced and natural gas fell sharply. In fixed income, Treasury ETFs firmed, consistent with a bid for duration even as the latest available Treasury yield levels remain elevated by historical standards. Early earnings from large financials and fresh policy and regulatory headlines are shaping leadership under the surface.
Macro: yields, inflation, and expectations
The latest available Treasury curve (as of 2026-01-12) puts the 2-year at 3.54%, the 5-year at 3.77%, the 10-year at 4.19%, and the 30-year at 4.83%. With those reference points, bond proxies are slightly firmer out of the gate (TLT last 87.93 vs. 87.82 prior; IEF 96.38 vs. 96.30; SHY 82.875 vs. 82.85), suggesting a modest bid to prices that, if sustained, implies marginally lower yields in early trading.
Inflation inputs look mixed. Headline CPI index level for December 2025 sits at 326.03 and core CPI at 331.86 (index levels; year-over-year rates not provided). Producer-side pressures persisted during the government shutdown period, according to reporting that wholesale costs rose, underscoring sticky elements of inflation. Short- and longer-term inflation expectations remain near the mid-2s by model estimates: about 2.60% for 1-year, 2.33% for 5-year, and roughly 2.32% for 10-year horizons, with 30-year around 2.45%. Those expectations, anchored near (but modestly above) the Fed’s target range, help explain the tug-of-war between growth-sensitive equities and duration assets at the open.
Policy risk is also in focus. European central bankers and others publicly defended Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid political scrutiny, while separate commentary warned that an “obedient” Fed would pose risks to global financial stability. Analysis from MarketWatch flagged that attacks on the Fed could, paradoxically, lift inflation by undermining credibility. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder reiterated a view that policy rates should ultimately move down toward 3% to reach equilibrium. Together, these inputs frame a policy path that remains data- and credibility-dependent, with markets toggling between disinflation progress and pockets of stickiness.
Equities: soft open with tech lagging and banks mixed
Index-level declines are mild, but composition matters. The QQQ’s roughly 0.7% early drop outpaces the SPY’s 0.4% decline, reflecting tech softness that echoes recent sessions. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) opened at 145.53 versus 146.48 (-0.6%). Articles highlighted that Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE) have faced pressure as investors reassess AI implications for their models, while semis and compute remain the bright spots: analysts turned more constructive on both AMD and Intel as AI server CPU dynamics and manufacturing roadmaps improve. Elsewhere in enterprise software, a note argued Microsoft, Oracle, and ServiceNow could be positioned to monetize AI infrastructure and application layers, though today’s open reads as consolidation following a heavy run into year-end.
Financials slipped at the open, with XLF at 54.03 versus 54.23 (-0.4%). Credit-card networks face policy overhang after headlines about routing rules and a separate push to cap APRs at 10%; both could compress economics for issuers and networks, at least at the margin. On the earnings front, the picture is mixed. JPMorgan and Bank of America posted better-than-expected results and struck constructive macro tones, while Wells Fargo missed on revenue despite an earnings beat and set a new profit target. Citigroup’s shares were reported higher despite a profit miss linked to a previously disclosed Russia-related loss, suggesting investors are looking through one-time charges and toward forward profitability and capital return. This blend of positives and policy risk helps explain XLF’s modest dip despite solid prints from some large constituents.
Industrials and travel show a split tape. Delta’s revenue shortfall weighed on its shares, while Boeing continues to build momentum on the back of sizable order wins and stronger deliveries, with coverage citing a two-year high in the stock. In energy-linked industrials and defense, headlines pointed to a $1 billion pre-IPO investment by the War Department in L3Harris, driving shares further into record territory, and a chipmaker leveraged to low-Earth-orbit satellites (Macom) extended a strong run—both examples of the “picks-and-shovels” dynamic tied to space and defense demand.
Sectors: energy steadies, health care flat
Energy opened little changed, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) at 42.84 versus 42.85 (-0.0%), but the commodity tone is firmer. Oil exposure via USO rose to 74.23 from 73.48 (+1.0%), underpinned by a focus on the Strait of Hormuz and other geopolitical pinch points. Exxon Mobil shares were reported at new highs despite Venezuela-related uncertainties, a reminder that company-specific execution and portfolio strategy can dominate near-term geopolitics. Health care (XLV) was essentially flat at 156.68 versus 156.74, while weight-loss drug headlines remained active—Amgen flagged the potential of its program to address adherence, and Novo Nordisk discussed a GLP-1 pill that could expand access; neither item provided price data, but both keep the obesity-treatment narrative front and center for 2026 health care positioning.
Bonds: bid for duration alongside anchored expectations
Treasury ETFs edged higher: TLT 87.93 vs. 87.82 (+0.1%), IEF 96.38 vs. 96.30 (+0.1%), SHY 82.875 vs. 82.85 (flat to slightly higher). With 10s around 4.19% and 30s near 4.83% on the latest available data, the curve remains relatively elevated in term premium terms. Today’s small price gains suggest investors are balancing resilient consumption data and sticky producer prices with signs that inflation expectations stay around the mid-2s. Rhetoric about central-bank independence and the policy glide path adds a two-way element to duration positioning.
Commodities: gold and silver extend leadership; oil up, gas slumps
Gold and silver remain the day’s standouts. GLD traded 425.88 vs. 421.63 (+1.0%), while SLV jumped to 83.14 vs. 78.60 (+5.8%), with CNBC reporting silver’s hold above the $90 level and MarketWatch noting investor focus on the commodity supercycle narrative to start 2026. There is some debate: one analysis suggested investors may be overdoing gold’s diversification role, while others enumerated multiple drivers for continued strength. The price action speaks to robust safe-haven and reflation hedging demand regardless of the rationale investors prefer.
Crude oil advanced (USO 74.23 vs. 73.48, +1.0%) as U.S.–Iran tensions and chokepoint risks keep a risk premium in energy markets. Natural gas fell sharply (UNG 10.54 vs. 11.32, -6.9%), underscoring the divergence within energy commodities. A broad commodities basket (DBC) rose to 23.57 from 23.37 (+0.9%), consistent with metals strength and firmer crude.
FX and crypto: mixed early tone
EURUSD marked at 1.1653. Without a prior-session comparator provided, directional inference is limited, but a steadier euro would be consistent with the bid in metals and commodities more broadly. Crypto was mixed: Bitcoin’s reference price stood at about 95,619, modestly above its provided open (~95,199), while Ether was at roughly 3,316, slightly below its open (~3,337). The divergence mirrors the broader “barbell” tone in risk assets—a preference for balance between secular growth and hard-asset hedges.
Company and theme highlights from the news flow
- Consumers: The delayed November retail sales report pointed to a strong holiday start, consistent with commentary from large banks about a resilient economy and with mortgage activity perking up as rates fell—homeowners and buyers reportedly raced to lock lower rates.
- Banks: JPMorgan and Bank of America beat expectations and struck constructive macro notes; Citigroup shares rose despite a Russia-related charge; Wells Fargo missed on revenue as it set a new profit target. Policy risk looms for card networks via potential routing rules and APR caps.
- Technology and AI: Salesforce and Adobe faced selling as investors reassessed AI’s impact on their models. In contrast, analysts turned more bullish on AMD and Intel, and argued Microsoft, Oracle, and ServiceNow could be prime beneficiaries as AI monetization broadens. Separately, cybersecurity names such as Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks fell on reports of a Beijing crackdown, a reminder of geopolitical risk in U.S.–China tech exposure.
- Media and deals: Reports indicated Netflix may solidify its Warner Bros. bid with an all-cash offer; Paramount sued Warner Bros. over the board’s evaluation, keeping deal-related volatility front and center for the media complex.
- Industrials and travel: Boeing benefited from additional aircraft orders and increasing deliveries; Delta’s revenue shortfall hit the stock. Defense and space themes remain in focus, with L3Harris’ funding highlight and satellite-linked chip demand at Macom supporting the “space economy” narrative.
- Energy and materials: Exxon Mobil’s new high reinforced energy-sector resilience, while BP’s renewables write-off underscored capital allocation challenges even for supermajors. Metals strength—especially silver—continues to be a defining 2026 narrative.
State of play at the open
- SPY 690.88 vs. 693.77 (-0.4%); QQQ 621.79 vs. 626.24 (-0.7%); DIA 490.83 vs. 491.94 (-0.2%); IWM 261.05 vs. 261.35 (-0.1%).
- Sectors: XLF 54.03 vs. 54.23 (-0.4%); XLK 145.53 vs. 146.48 (-0.6%); XLE 42.84 vs. 42.85 (flat); XLV 156.68 vs. 156.74 (flat).
- Bonds: TLT +0.1%, IEF +0.1%, SHY ~flat.
- Commodities: GLD +1.0%; SLV +5.8%; USO +1.0%; UNG -6.9%; DBC +0.9%.
- FX/crypto: EURUSD mark 1.1653; BTC modestly higher vs. its provided open; ETH modestly lower.
Outlook
Investors will watch the incoming data flow on consumption and inflation to refine the policy path, alongside ongoing bank earnings for insight on credit, deposits, and capital return. M&A developments in media, regulatory direction on credit-card networks, and geopolitical currents in energy and cybersecurity remain near-term swing factors. With inflation expectations anchored near the mid-2s and producer costs showing stickiness, market leadership could remain rotational, with metals and energy acting as hedges against policy and geopolitical volatility while selective growth themes in AI and industrials continue to attract capital.
Risks to monitor include policy interference with central-bank independence (and the inflation risk that implies), regulatory shifts in payments and tech platforms, U.S.–China technology frictions, and energy supply disruptions. The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling timeline adds a binary trade risk for global cyclicals and exporters. Against this backdrop, a disciplined approach that balances cyclical exposure with hedges—via quality balance sheets, duration, or commodities—continues to look prudent at the index level.
Markets opened on a cautious note Wednesday, with major U.S. equity ETFs trading modestly lower while haven metals extended their run and oil ticked higher. At the open, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) traded at 690.88 versus a prior close of 693.77, down roughly 0.4%. The Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) changed hands at 621.79 versus 626.24, down about 0.7%, underperforming the Dow Industrials ETF (DIA) at 490.83 versus 491.94 (-0.2%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) at 261.05 versus 261.35 (-0.1%).
The backdrop blends mixed macro signals with sector-specific catalysts. Metals rallied—gold and silver continue to print elevated levels—while crude oil advanced and natural gas fell sharply. In fixed income, Treasury ETFs firmed, consistent with a bid for duration even as the latest available Treasury yield levels remain elevated by historical standards. Early earnings from large financials and fresh policy and regulatory headlines are shaping leadership under the surface.
Macro: yields, inflation, and expectations
The latest available Treasury curve (as of 2026-01-12) puts the 2-year at 3.54%, the 5-year at 3.77%, the 10-year at 4.19%, and the 30-year at 4.83%. With those reference points, bond proxies are slightly firmer out of the gate (TLT last 87.93 vs. 87.82 prior; IEF 96.38 vs. 96.30; SHY 82.875 vs. 82.85), suggesting a modest bid to prices that, if sustained, implies marginally lower yields in early trading.
Inflation inputs look mixed. Headline CPI index level for December 2025 sits at 326.03 and core CPI at 331.86 (index levels; year-over-year rates not provided). Producer-side pressures persisted during the government shutdown period, according to reporting that wholesale costs rose, underscoring sticky elements of inflation. Short- and longer-term inflation expectations remain near the mid-2s by model estimates: about 2.60% for 1-year, 2.33% for 5-year, and roughly 2.32% for 10-year horizons, with 30-year around 2.45%. Those expectations, anchored near (but modestly above) the Fed’s target range, help explain the tug-of-war between growth-sensitive equities and duration assets at the open.
Policy risk is also in focus. European central bankers and others publicly defended Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid political scrutiny, while separate commentary warned that an “obedient” Fed would pose risks to global financial stability. Analysis from MarketWatch flagged that attacks on the Fed could, paradoxically, lift inflation by undermining credibility. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder reiterated a view that policy rates should ultimately move down toward 3% to reach equilibrium. Together, these inputs frame a policy path that remains data- and credibility-dependent, with markets toggling between disinflation progress and pockets of stickiness.
Equities: soft open with tech lagging and banks mixed
Index-level declines are mild, but composition matters. The QQQ’s roughly 0.7% early drop outpaces the SPY’s 0.4% decline, reflecting tech softness that echoes recent sessions. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) opened at 145.53 versus 146.48 (-0.6%). Articles highlighted that Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE) have faced pressure as investors reassess AI implications for their models, while semis and compute remain the bright spots: analysts turned more constructive on both AMD and Intel as AI server CPU dynamics and manufacturing roadmaps improve. Elsewhere in enterprise software, a note argued Microsoft, Oracle, and ServiceNow could be positioned to monetize AI infrastructure and application layers, though today’s open reads as consolidation following a heavy run into year-end.
Financials slipped at the open, with XLF at 54.03 versus 54.23 (-0.4%). Credit-card networks face policy overhang after headlines about routing rules and a separate push to cap APRs at 10%; both could compress economics for issuers and networks, at least at the margin. On the earnings front, the picture is mixed. JPMorgan and Bank of America posted better-than-expected results and struck constructive macro tones, while Wells Fargo missed on revenue despite an earnings beat and set a new profit target. Citigroup’s shares were reported higher despite a profit miss linked to a previously disclosed Russia-related loss, suggesting investors are looking through one-time charges and toward forward profitability and capital return. This blend of positives and policy risk helps explain XLF’s modest dip despite solid prints from some large constituents.
Industrials and travel show a split tape. Delta’s revenue shortfall weighed on its shares, while Boeing continues to build momentum on the back of sizable order wins and stronger deliveries, with coverage citing a two-year high in the stock. In energy-linked industrials and defense, headlines pointed to a $1 billion pre-IPO investment by the War Department in L3Harris, driving shares further into record territory, and a chipmaker leveraged to low-Earth-orbit satellites (Macom) extended a strong run—both examples of the “picks-and-shovels” dynamic tied to space and defense demand.
Sectors: energy steadies, health care flat
Energy opened little changed, with the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) at 42.84 versus 42.85 (-0.0%), but the commodity tone is firmer. Oil exposure via USO rose to 74.23 from 73.48 (+1.0%), underpinned by a focus on the Strait of Hormuz and other geopolitical pinch points. Exxon Mobil shares were reported at new highs despite Venezuela-related uncertainties, a reminder that company-specific execution and portfolio strategy can dominate near-term geopolitics. Health care (XLV) was essentially flat at 156.68 versus 156.74, while weight-loss drug headlines remained active—Amgen flagged the potential of its program to address adherence, and Novo Nordisk discussed a GLP-1 pill that could expand access; neither item provided price data, but both keep the obesity-treatment narrative front and center for 2026 health care positioning.
Bonds: bid for duration alongside anchored expectations
Treasury ETFs edged higher: TLT 87.93 vs. 87.82 (+0.1%), IEF 96.38 vs. 96.30 (+0.1%), SHY 82.875 vs. 82.85 (flat to slightly higher). With 10s around 4.19% and 30s near 4.83% on the latest available data, the curve remains relatively elevated in term premium terms. Today’s small price gains suggest investors are balancing resilient consumption data and sticky producer prices with signs that inflation expectations stay around the mid-2s. Rhetoric about central-bank independence and the policy glide path adds a two-way element to duration positioning.
Commodities: gold and silver extend leadership; oil up, gas slumps
Gold and silver remain the day’s standouts. GLD traded 425.88 vs. 421.63 (+1.0%), while SLV jumped to 83.14 vs. 78.60 (+5.8%), with CNBC reporting silver’s hold above the $90 level and MarketWatch noting investor focus on the commodity supercycle narrative to start 2026. There is some debate: one analysis suggested investors may be overdoing gold’s diversification role, while others enumerated multiple drivers for continued strength. The price action speaks to robust safe-haven and reflation hedging demand regardless of the rationale investors prefer.
Crude oil advanced (USO 74.23 vs. 73.48, +1.0%) as U.S.–Iran tensions and chokepoint risks keep a risk premium in energy markets. Natural gas fell sharply (UNG 10.54 vs. 11.32, -6.9%), underscoring the divergence within energy commodities. A broad commodities basket (DBC) rose to 23.57 from 23.37 (+0.9%), consistent with metals strength and firmer crude.
FX and crypto: mixed early tone
EURUSD marked at 1.1653. Without a prior-session comparator provided, directional inference is limited, but a steadier euro would be consistent with the bid in metals and commodities more broadly. Crypto was mixed: Bitcoin’s reference price stood at about 95,619, modestly above its provided open (~95,199), while Ether was at roughly 3,316, slightly below its open (~3,337). The divergence mirrors the broader “barbell” tone in risk assets—a preference for balance between secular growth and hard-asset hedges.
Company and theme highlights from the news flow
- Consumers: The delayed November retail sales report pointed to a strong holiday start, consistent with commentary from large banks about a resilient economy and with mortgage activity perking up as rates fell—homeowners and buyers reportedly raced to lock lower rates.
- Banks: JPMorgan and Bank of America beat expectations and struck constructive macro notes; Citigroup shares rose despite a Russia-related charge; Wells Fargo missed on revenue as it set a new profit target. Policy risk looms for card networks via potential routing rules and APR caps.
- Technology and AI: Salesforce and Adobe faced selling as investors reassessed AI’s impact on their models. In contrast, analysts turned more bullish on AMD and Intel, and argued Microsoft, Oracle, and ServiceNow could be prime beneficiaries as AI monetization broadens. Separately, cybersecurity names such as Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks fell on reports of a Beijing crackdown, a reminder of geopolitical risk in U.S.–China tech exposure.
- Media and deals: Reports indicated Netflix may solidify its Warner Bros. bid with an all-cash offer; Paramount sued Warner Bros. over the board’s evaluation, keeping deal-related volatility front and center for the media complex.
- Industrials and travel: Boeing benefited from additional aircraft orders and increasing deliveries; Delta’s revenue shortfall hit the stock. Defense and space themes remain in focus, with L3Harris’ funding highlight and satellite-linked chip demand at Macom supporting the “space economy” narrative.
- Energy and materials: Exxon Mobil’s new high reinforced energy-sector resilience, while BP’s renewables write-off underscored capital allocation challenges even for supermajors. Metals strength—especially silver—continues to be a defining 2026 narrative.
State of play at the open
- SPY 690.88 vs. 693.77 (-0.4%); QQQ 621.79 vs. 626.24 (-0.7%); DIA 490.83 vs. 491.94 (-0.2%); IWM 261.05 vs. 261.35 (-0.1%).
- Sectors: XLF 54.03 vs. 54.23 (-0.4%); XLK 145.53 vs. 146.48 (-0.6%); XLE 42.84 vs. 42.85 (flat); XLV 156.68 vs. 156.74 (flat).
- Bonds: TLT +0.1%, IEF +0.1%, SHY ~flat.
- Commodities: GLD +1.0%; SLV +5.8%; USO +1.0%; UNG -6.9%; DBC +0.9%.
- FX/crypto: EURUSD mark 1.1653; BTC modestly higher vs. its provided open; ETH modestly lower.
Outlook
Investors will watch the incoming data flow on consumption and inflation to refine the policy path, alongside ongoing bank earnings for insight on credit, deposits, and capital return. M&A developments in media, regulatory direction on credit-card networks, and geopolitical currents in energy and cybersecurity remain near-term swing factors. With inflation expectations anchored near the mid-2s and producer costs showing stickiness, market leadership could remain rotational, with metals and energy acting as hedges against policy and geopolitical volatility while selective growth themes in AI and industrials continue to attract capital.
Risks to monitor include policy interference with central-bank independence (and the inflation risk that implies), regulatory shifts in payments and tech platforms, U.S.–China technology frictions, and energy supply disruptions. The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling timeline adds a binary trade risk for global cyclicals and exporters. Against this backdrop, a disciplined approach that balances cyclical exposure with hedges—via quality balance sheets, duration, or commodities—continues to look prudent at the index level.