State of Market: Open 01/15/26
U.S. stocks open higher as tech leads; long duration bids, oil and silver ease
TSMC’s upbeat guidance buoys growth proxies, while healthcare sees deal activity; jobless claims dip below 200,000 and tariff pass-throughs keep inflation in focus
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Equities opened in positive territory Thursday with big-cap tech and growth leadership back in front, even as the macro backdrop remains a push-pull between resilient labor data, evolving inflation dynamics, and policy uncertainty. Initial flows favor the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, while small caps and the Dow lag modestly. Long-duration Treasuries are bid at the open, commodities are broadly softer led by oil and silver, and the dollar is firmer versus the euro. Crypto continues to catch a bid after this week’s squeeze in bearish positions.
At the index level, SPY is up roughly 0.6% from Wednesday’s close, with the last trade at 694.65 versus a prior close of 690.36. QQQ is outperforming, up about 1.2% to 626.81 from 619.55, consistent with renewed enthusiasm around semiconductors and AI supply chains. The Dow proxy DIA is modestly higher at 492.59 (+0.2% from 491.58) and small caps via IWM are up about 0.4% to 264.15 from 263.19.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Policy and growth signals remain mixed. On yields, the latest available curve snapshot shows the 10-year at 4.18% and the 30-year at 4.83%, with the 2-year at 3.53% and the 5-year at 3.75% (data as of 2026-01-13). That configuration reflects a curve that is less inverted at the front and still carries a meaningful term premium out the curve. A CNBC report this morning noted Treasury yields nudged higher as investors monitor geopolitical uncertainty; however, at today’s open long duration is modestly bid, suggesting a near-term preference for duration amid softer commodity pricing and a firm dollar.
On inflation, the December CPI basket level stands at 326.03 with core CPI at 331.86 (index levels; year-over-year rates not provided). Fed Beige Book commentary reported by MarketWatch indicated that businesses are beginning to pass tariff-related cost increases to consumers, and separate wholesale-cost reporting highlighted persistent pipeline pressures during the government shutdown period. Taken together, those inputs argue that while goods disinflation has run its course in some categories, the price backdrop still reflects pass-through dynamics and sectoral stickiness.
Crucially, inflation expectations remain anchored: the model-based 1-year expectation sits near 2.60%, while the 5-, 10-, and 30-year expectations cluster around 2.33%, 2.32%, and 2.45%, respectively (as of 2026-01-01). That anchoring helps cap the upside in term yields and, when paired with today’s modest bid in TLT, provides a constructive offset for duration-sensitive equities.
Labor data also lean supportive for growth risk. Initial jobless claims fell below the 200,000 threshold, according to MarketWatch, marking only the second sub-200k print in a year and hinting at improvement in what had been a fragile labor market. That supports the consumer backdrop already reflected in a delayed November retail sales report that pointed to robust spending. The interplay is important: resilient labor and spending elevate growth expectations for cyclicals and tech alike, but they also complicate the pace of policy easing should inflation pass-throughs persist.
Equities and sectors: tech leadership, bank steadiness, healthcare deal flow
Sector performance at the open supports a growth-led tape. Technology (XLK) is up about 1.6% to 147.00 from 144.70, outpacing the broader market on the heels of TSMC’s stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, raised 2026 revenue outlook, and increased AI capex plans. MarketWatch reported TSMC shares jumped 5% on the news, a development that tends to ripple across semiconductor suppliers and cloud infrastructure beneficiaries and is consistent with QQQ’s early strength. Related coverage highlighted contrasting narratives around megacap software—analyst notes flagged Microsoft as underpriced relative to AI enthusiasm, while separate pieces pointed to ongoing pressure in software names like Adobe and Salesforce as investors reassess AI monetization pathways. Those crosscurrents underscore the selective nature of AI-linked performance: hardware and foundational supply chains are enjoying more immediate demand signals than some application-layer software providers.
Financials (XLF) are modestly higher, up about 0.2% at 54.28 versus 54.15. The sector is navigating mixed single-name headlines but an improving macro read. Goldman Sachs reported a strong profit beat on investment banking and equities but posted its first revenue decline in two years, with MarketWatch citing Apple Card headwinds; the stock fell on that revenue disappointment. Conversely, Citigroup’s shares rose Wednesday despite a profit miss driven by previously disclosed Russia-related losses. JPMorgan’s house view, as reported by MarketWatch, still favors banks in a world where the era of rate repression has ended—a thesis that aligns with a positively sloped long-end and anchored inflation expectations. BlackRock’s record $14 trillion in AUM, also reported this morning, reinforces the sector’s asset-gathering momentum.
Healthcare (XLV) is modestly softer at the open, down about 0.3% to 157.40 from 157.86, even as deal activity heats up. Boston Scientific announced a $14.5 billion acquisition of Penumbra to expand into fast-growing vascular segments, with MarketWatch noting a roughly 14% jump in Penumbra’s shares after the deal hit wires. M&A can support valuation floors across medtech subsectors, though integration and regulatory timelines often temper immediate sector-level moves—consistent with XLV’s slight dip today.
Energy (XLE) is fractionally higher—up roughly 0.5% from its prior close—even as crude proxies decline. The divergence likely reflects a blend of company-specific momentum and positioning after strong performance in certain integrated names. MarketWatch earlier highlighted Exxon Mobil’s new high, and while oil prices pulled back after comments suggesting the U.S. could hold off on attacking Iran, equity investors may be leaning into balance-sheet strength and capital return themes within the group.
Bonds: duration bid despite headlines of higher yields
Bond ETFs point to a small bid for duration at the open. TLT is up about 0.35% to 88.64 from 88.33. IEF is essentially unchanged to slightly higher at 96.51, and front-end SHY is fractionally softer at 82.86 from 82.87. The move suggests a modest pull into safety or duration balancing against equity risk-on, consistent with softer commodities, a firmer dollar, and anchored expectations. With the 10-year yield last marked at 4.18% earlier this week, the range remains wide enough for tactical rotations: stronger labor and spending argue for rate stability, while evidence of tariff pass-throughs caps the room for aggressive easing expectations.
Commodities: oil and silver pull back; gold eases
Commodities are broadly lower. USO is down about 1.4% from Wednesday’s close (71.57 vs. 72.61), reflecting the latest pullback in crude after headlines noted the U.S. may hold off on attacking Iran. The softer crude tone removes some of the immediate geopolitical risk premium, even as broader tensions remain in focus.
Precious metals are also under pressure. SLV is off roughly 4.4% to 80.86 from 84.56, a notable breather after silver pushed above the $90 milestone earlier this week, as CNBC highlighted. GLD is down about 0.7% to 423.11 from 425.94. Market commentary had pointed to increased trading costs for silver futures in recent weeks and raised the possibility of a correction in other industrial metals; Bloomberg noted aluminum and copper stabilizing after a bull run into 2026, while Goldman cited speculative inflows as a key driver of copper strength and warned of potential correction risks. DBC, a broader commodity proxy, is down about 1.0% to 23.16 from 23.39, consistent with the cross-commodity softness.
FX and crypto: firmer dollar, crypto bid
EURUSD is lower this morning, with the mark around 1.1606 versus an open of 1.1644—about a 0.3% move in favor of the dollar. The firmer dollar is consistent with the combination of resilient U.S. data and a still-elevated absolute level of Treasury yields at the long end.
Crypto remains firm. BTCUSD trades near 96,772 versus an open of 96,308, up roughly 0.5%, and ETHUSD is up about 1.8% to 3,365 from 3,305. Bloomberg reported a rally that wiped out roughly $600 million in bearish crypto bets, with bitcoin pushing to a two-month high above $96,000 on macro tailwinds. The follow-through at today’s open indicates continued risk appetite in digital assets, even as traditional commodities ease and the dollar firms.
Notable movers and themes from the news flow
- Semiconductors and AI supply chain: TSMC’s strong quarter and raised 2026 guidance, alongside increased AI capex, buoyed sentiment across the chip complex and helped power QQQ and XLK leadership at the open.
- Banks and asset managers: BlackRock’s record AUM underscores robust asset-gathering despite rate volatility. Messaging from major banks remains generally constructive on the U.S. consumer, while single-name results are mixed (Goldman’s revenue disappointment versus Citigroup’s resilience despite Russia-related charges).
- Healthcare M&A: Boston Scientific’s $14.5 billion agreement to acquire Penumbra accelerates consolidation in vascular and interventional niches. Penumbra rallied sharply on the announcement.
- Geopolitics and oil: Crude pulled back after comments suggesting a pause on Iran strikes; energy equities show relative resilience, highlighting company-specific drivers.
- China-related regulatory risk: Reports of a Chinese crackdown on some cybersecurity software weighed on U.S. names in that group, a reminder that policy risk remains a significant factor for certain tech subsectors.
- Precious metals and industrials: After surging, silver is consolidating; aluminum and copper are stabilizing after a bull run, with strategists flagging correction risks in copper given speculative flows.
- Crypto momentum: Short-covering and macro tailwinds support bitcoin and ether into the open.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Earnings season breadth: Watch for follow-through from bank earnings into broader financials pricing (XLF) and whether strong AUM and consumer commentary offset regulatory overhangs on card networks and routing rules. Single-name reactions around tech, particularly semiconductors and software, will remain a key driver of QQQ and XLK dispersion.
- Yields and the curve: The 10-year near 4.18% and the 30-year around 4.83% (latest available) are key reference points. A sustained bid in TLT would support higher-multiple equities; a renewed back-up could pressure them. Any fresh data on inflation pass-throughs or labor tightness will matter for the path of policy expectations.
- Commodities and geopolitics: Oil’s reaction to shifting Middle East rhetoric bears watching. If crude stabilizes after the latest pullback, energy equities could continue to decouple on cash flow and capital return themes.
- Dollar trend: The euro’s slip versus the dollar reflects relative growth and rate differentials. A firmer dollar typically weighs on commodities and can tighten financial conditions at the margin.
- Crypto spillovers: Continued crypto bid could support risk sentiment at the margin, but volatility there typically remains idiosyncratic.
Risks
- Policy uncertainty: Ongoing debates around tariffs, credit card routing, and Federal Reserve independence have the potential to alter inflation, growth, and market structure dynamics. Several articles highlighted tariff pass-throughs and concerns about central bank independence.
- Geopolitical shocks: Middle East tensions can quickly reprice energy markets and risk assets. The recent oil pullback shows sensitivity to headlines.
- Growth-inflation mix: Strong labor and spending alongside tariff pass-throughs could keep inflation stickier than expected, challenging duration and equity multiples.
- Regulatory and cross-border tech risk: China-related actions against cybersecurity software vendors show policy risk remains elevated for exposed tech subsectors.
- Market breadth and positioning: AI-linked enthusiasm remains selective. If leadership narrows further or speculative flows reverse in metals or crypto, volatility could rise.
Bottom line
Today’s open maps cleanly to the data: tech and growth are in front on improving AI supply-chain visibility and resilient macro prints; banks are steady amid mixed single-name results but constructive sector narratives; healthcare’s dealmaking highlights durable innovation demand; and commodities are easing alongside a firmer dollar and a small bid for duration. With inflation expectations anchored but tariff pass-throughs and wholesale costs signaling persistence in some price components, investors should expect continued rotation beneath the surface and stay attuned to curve dynamics, geopolitical headlines, and earnings guidance for confirmation of the growth path into 2026.
Equities opened in positive territory Thursday with big-cap tech and growth leadership back in front, even as the macro backdrop remains a push-pull between resilient labor data, evolving inflation dynamics, and policy uncertainty. Initial flows favor the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, while small caps and the Dow lag modestly. Long-duration Treasuries are bid at the open, commodities are broadly softer led by oil and silver, and the dollar is firmer versus the euro. Crypto continues to catch a bid after this week’s squeeze in bearish positions.
At the index level, SPY is up roughly 0.6% from Wednesday’s close, with the last trade at 694.65 versus a prior close of 690.36. QQQ is outperforming, up about 1.2% to 626.81 from 619.55, consistent with renewed enthusiasm around semiconductors and AI supply chains. The Dow proxy DIA is modestly higher at 492.59 (+0.2% from 491.58) and small caps via IWM are up about 0.4% to 264.15 from 263.19.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Policy and growth signals remain mixed. On yields, the latest available curve snapshot shows the 10-year at 4.18% and the 30-year at 4.83%, with the 2-year at 3.53% and the 5-year at 3.75% (data as of 2026-01-13). That configuration reflects a curve that is less inverted at the front and still carries a meaningful term premium out the curve. A CNBC report this morning noted Treasury yields nudged higher as investors monitor geopolitical uncertainty; however, at today’s open long duration is modestly bid, suggesting a near-term preference for duration amid softer commodity pricing and a firm dollar.
On inflation, the December CPI basket level stands at 326.03 with core CPI at 331.86 (index levels; year-over-year rates not provided). Fed Beige Book commentary reported by MarketWatch indicated that businesses are beginning to pass tariff-related cost increases to consumers, and separate wholesale-cost reporting highlighted persistent pipeline pressures during the government shutdown period. Taken together, those inputs argue that while goods disinflation has run its course in some categories, the price backdrop still reflects pass-through dynamics and sectoral stickiness.
Crucially, inflation expectations remain anchored: the model-based 1-year expectation sits near 2.60%, while the 5-, 10-, and 30-year expectations cluster around 2.33%, 2.32%, and 2.45%, respectively (as of 2026-01-01). That anchoring helps cap the upside in term yields and, when paired with today’s modest bid in TLT, provides a constructive offset for duration-sensitive equities.
Labor data also lean supportive for growth risk. Initial jobless claims fell below the 200,000 threshold, according to MarketWatch, marking only the second sub-200k print in a year and hinting at improvement in what had been a fragile labor market. That supports the consumer backdrop already reflected in a delayed November retail sales report that pointed to robust spending. The interplay is important: resilient labor and spending elevate growth expectations for cyclicals and tech alike, but they also complicate the pace of policy easing should inflation pass-throughs persist.
Equities and sectors: tech leadership, bank steadiness, healthcare deal flow
Sector performance at the open supports a growth-led tape. Technology (XLK) is up about 1.6% to 147.00 from 144.70, outpacing the broader market on the heels of TSMC’s stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, raised 2026 revenue outlook, and increased AI capex plans. MarketWatch reported TSMC shares jumped 5% on the news, a development that tends to ripple across semiconductor suppliers and cloud infrastructure beneficiaries and is consistent with QQQ’s early strength. Related coverage highlighted contrasting narratives around megacap software—analyst notes flagged Microsoft as underpriced relative to AI enthusiasm, while separate pieces pointed to ongoing pressure in software names like Adobe and Salesforce as investors reassess AI monetization pathways. Those crosscurrents underscore the selective nature of AI-linked performance: hardware and foundational supply chains are enjoying more immediate demand signals than some application-layer software providers.
Financials (XLF) are modestly higher, up about 0.2% at 54.28 versus 54.15. The sector is navigating mixed single-name headlines but an improving macro read. Goldman Sachs reported a strong profit beat on investment banking and equities but posted its first revenue decline in two years, with MarketWatch citing Apple Card headwinds; the stock fell on that revenue disappointment. Conversely, Citigroup’s shares rose Wednesday despite a profit miss driven by previously disclosed Russia-related losses. JPMorgan’s house view, as reported by MarketWatch, still favors banks in a world where the era of rate repression has ended—a thesis that aligns with a positively sloped long-end and anchored inflation expectations. BlackRock’s record $14 trillion in AUM, also reported this morning, reinforces the sector’s asset-gathering momentum.
Healthcare (XLV) is modestly softer at the open, down about 0.3% to 157.40 from 157.86, even as deal activity heats up. Boston Scientific announced a $14.5 billion acquisition of Penumbra to expand into fast-growing vascular segments, with MarketWatch noting a roughly 14% jump in Penumbra’s shares after the deal hit wires. M&A can support valuation floors across medtech subsectors, though integration and regulatory timelines often temper immediate sector-level moves—consistent with XLV’s slight dip today.
Energy (XLE) is fractionally higher—up roughly 0.5% from its prior close—even as crude proxies decline. The divergence likely reflects a blend of company-specific momentum and positioning after strong performance in certain integrated names. MarketWatch earlier highlighted Exxon Mobil’s new high, and while oil prices pulled back after comments suggesting the U.S. could hold off on attacking Iran, equity investors may be leaning into balance-sheet strength and capital return themes within the group.
Bonds: duration bid despite headlines of higher yields
Bond ETFs point to a small bid for duration at the open. TLT is up about 0.35% to 88.64 from 88.33. IEF is essentially unchanged to slightly higher at 96.51, and front-end SHY is fractionally softer at 82.86 from 82.87. The move suggests a modest pull into safety or duration balancing against equity risk-on, consistent with softer commodities, a firmer dollar, and anchored expectations. With the 10-year yield last marked at 4.18% earlier this week, the range remains wide enough for tactical rotations: stronger labor and spending argue for rate stability, while evidence of tariff pass-throughs caps the room for aggressive easing expectations.
Commodities: oil and silver pull back; gold eases
Commodities are broadly lower. USO is down about 1.4% from Wednesday’s close (71.57 vs. 72.61), reflecting the latest pullback in crude after headlines noted the U.S. may hold off on attacking Iran. The softer crude tone removes some of the immediate geopolitical risk premium, even as broader tensions remain in focus.
Precious metals are also under pressure. SLV is off roughly 4.4% to 80.86 from 84.56, a notable breather after silver pushed above the $90 milestone earlier this week, as CNBC highlighted. GLD is down about 0.7% to 423.11 from 425.94. Market commentary had pointed to increased trading costs for silver futures in recent weeks and raised the possibility of a correction in other industrial metals; Bloomberg noted aluminum and copper stabilizing after a bull run into 2026, while Goldman cited speculative inflows as a key driver of copper strength and warned of potential correction risks. DBC, a broader commodity proxy, is down about 1.0% to 23.16 from 23.39, consistent with the cross-commodity softness.
FX and crypto: firmer dollar, crypto bid
EURUSD is lower this morning, with the mark around 1.1606 versus an open of 1.1644—about a 0.3% move in favor of the dollar. The firmer dollar is consistent with the combination of resilient U.S. data and a still-elevated absolute level of Treasury yields at the long end.
Crypto remains firm. BTCUSD trades near 96,772 versus an open of 96,308, up roughly 0.5%, and ETHUSD is up about 1.8% to 3,365 from 3,305. Bloomberg reported a rally that wiped out roughly $600 million in bearish crypto bets, with bitcoin pushing to a two-month high above $96,000 on macro tailwinds. The follow-through at today’s open indicates continued risk appetite in digital assets, even as traditional commodities ease and the dollar firms.
Notable movers and themes from the news flow
- Semiconductors and AI supply chain: TSMC’s strong quarter and raised 2026 guidance, alongside increased AI capex, buoyed sentiment across the chip complex and helped power QQQ and XLK leadership at the open.
- Banks and asset managers: BlackRock’s record AUM underscores robust asset-gathering despite rate volatility. Messaging from major banks remains generally constructive on the U.S. consumer, while single-name results are mixed (Goldman’s revenue disappointment versus Citigroup’s resilience despite Russia-related charges).
- Healthcare M&A: Boston Scientific’s $14.5 billion agreement to acquire Penumbra accelerates consolidation in vascular and interventional niches. Penumbra rallied sharply on the announcement.
- Geopolitics and oil: Crude pulled back after comments suggesting a pause on Iran strikes; energy equities show relative resilience, highlighting company-specific drivers.
- China-related regulatory risk: Reports of a Chinese crackdown on some cybersecurity software weighed on U.S. names in that group, a reminder that policy risk remains a significant factor for certain tech subsectors.
- Precious metals and industrials: After surging, silver is consolidating; aluminum and copper are stabilizing after a bull run, with strategists flagging correction risks in copper given speculative flows.
- Crypto momentum: Short-covering and macro tailwinds support bitcoin and ether into the open.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Earnings season breadth: Watch for follow-through from bank earnings into broader financials pricing (XLF) and whether strong AUM and consumer commentary offset regulatory overhangs on card networks and routing rules. Single-name reactions around tech, particularly semiconductors and software, will remain a key driver of QQQ and XLK dispersion.
- Yields and the curve: The 10-year near 4.18% and the 30-year around 4.83% (latest available) are key reference points. A sustained bid in TLT would support higher-multiple equities; a renewed back-up could pressure them. Any fresh data on inflation pass-throughs or labor tightness will matter for the path of policy expectations.
- Commodities and geopolitics: Oil’s reaction to shifting Middle East rhetoric bears watching. If crude stabilizes after the latest pullback, energy equities could continue to decouple on cash flow and capital return themes.
- Dollar trend: The euro’s slip versus the dollar reflects relative growth and rate differentials. A firmer dollar typically weighs on commodities and can tighten financial conditions at the margin.
- Crypto spillovers: Continued crypto bid could support risk sentiment at the margin, but volatility there typically remains idiosyncratic.
Risks
- Policy uncertainty: Ongoing debates around tariffs, credit card routing, and Federal Reserve independence have the potential to alter inflation, growth, and market structure dynamics. Several articles highlighted tariff pass-throughs and concerns about central bank independence.
- Geopolitical shocks: Middle East tensions can quickly reprice energy markets and risk assets. The recent oil pullback shows sensitivity to headlines.
- Growth-inflation mix: Strong labor and spending alongside tariff pass-throughs could keep inflation stickier than expected, challenging duration and equity multiples.
- Regulatory and cross-border tech risk: China-related actions against cybersecurity software vendors show policy risk remains elevated for exposed tech subsectors.
- Market breadth and positioning: AI-linked enthusiasm remains selective. If leadership narrows further or speculative flows reverse in metals or crypto, volatility could rise.
Bottom line
Today’s open maps cleanly to the data: tech and growth are in front on improving AI supply-chain visibility and resilient macro prints; banks are steady amid mixed single-name results but constructive sector narratives; healthcare’s dealmaking highlights durable innovation demand; and commodities are easing alongside a firmer dollar and a small bid for duration. With inflation expectations anchored but tariff pass-throughs and wholesale costs signaling persistence in some price components, investors should expect continued rotation beneath the surface and stay attuned to curve dynamics, geopolitical headlines, and earnings guidance for confirmation of the growth path into 2026.