State of Market: Close 12/25/25
U.S. stocks edge higher into the holiday; yields steady, gold cools as silver extends run
SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all finish modestly higher; curve remains positively sloped with 10-year near 4.17%; GLD slips while SLV advances; crypto and EURUSD trade in tight ranges.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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Overview
U.S. equities finished modestly higher into the holiday period, extending the market’s seasonal strength and keeping major benchmarks near record territory. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) gained about 0.3% to 690.28 versus a prior close of 687.96. The Nasdaq 100 tracker (QQQ) added roughly 0.3% to 623.94, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) rose about 0.6% to 486.97. Small caps (IWM) advanced about 0.2% to 252.70. Sector performance was broadly constructive with technology (XLK), financials (XLF), health care (XLV), and utilities (XLU) each in the green.
The macro backdrop remains supportive: Treasury yields sit in a stable range with a positively sloped curve between the 2-year at 3.44% and the 10-year at 4.17%, and long-end yields around 4.84% on the 30-year. Inflation expectations from 1 to 10 years remain anchored between roughly 2.3% and 3.2%, in line with a soft-landing narrative even as individual data points—like robust third-quarter GDP and low jobless claims—signal resilience. Commodities diverged: gold eased modestly after a strong pre-holiday run, but silver extended gains; oil was essentially flat to slightly weaker and natural gas fell. Crypto and EURUSD were rangebound.
Macro: yields, inflation, expectations
Treasury yields, as of the latest available reading, reflect a curve consistent with steady growth and anchored inflation expectations. The 2-year yield stands at 3.44%, the 5-year at 3.71%, the 10-year at 4.17%, and the 30-year at 4.84%. The positive 2s10s slope is notable and indicative of reduced recession probability compared with prior periods of inversion, though today’s shape alone does not guarantee growth.
Inflation data for November show headline CPI at 325.031 and core CPI at 331.068 (index levels), while market- and model-based inflation expectations remain contained: 1-year at 3.20%, 5-year at 2.42%, 10-year at 2.34%, and 30-year at 2.44%. That configuration points to a view that near-term inflation is still working lower toward the Fed’s target over time, with long-term expectations staying well anchored. Articles in the past day highlight ongoing debates: some see risks of stagflation in the near term before a later reacceleration, while others stress the economy’s resilience, citing strong GDP and historically low jobless claims. The combination—solid growth, low layoffs, and anchored expectations—has underpinned equity multiples and kept rate volatility contained.
Equities and sectors
- Broad indices: SPY +0.3% to 690.28 (vs. 687.96 prior close). QQQ +0.3% to 623.94 (vs. 622.11). DIA +0.6% to 486.97 (vs. 484.23). IWM +0.2% to 252.70 (vs. 252.08).
- Sector ETFs: Technology (XLK) rose about 0.25% to 146.31 (from 145.95). Financials (XLF) gained roughly 0.5% to 55.71 (from 55.43), consistent with a positively sloped curve that can support net interest margins. Health Care (XLV) advanced around 0.5% to 155.76 (from 154.99). Utilities (XLU) finished near 42.82 (from 42.62), up about 0.5%—a constructive move for defensives, possibly reflecting appetite for dividend yield and stability into year-end.
Seasonal context remains supportive. Articles noted that the “Santa Claus rally” historically spans the last five trading days of December and the first two of the new year, and that December 26 has been among the most consistently positive sessions historically. The S&P 500 recently set a record on Christmas Eve for the first time in more than a decade, reinforcing the constructive tape. A separate piece observed a subdued “fear gauge” (VIX) heading into 2026, which helps explain a bid for cyclicals and megacap tech.
Within tech and AI, several developments are important for 2026 positioning. Nvidia entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI-chip maker Groq and is set to absorb some of the startup’s executive team—supporting the view that Nvidia continues to expand its ecosystem. Additional commentary suggested one of the “Magnificent Seven” leaders has been “rumbling to life,” with Nvidia again highlighted, and another note framed what Nvidia investors might look forward to in 2026, including the trajectory of OpenAI’s next GPT model and the broader data center build-out. Meanwhile, Meta’s significant AI spending has investors weighing whether the company could revisit a “year of efficiency” to monetize AI more effectively. Alphabet moved to secure power for future AI growth by acquiring its data-center partner Intersect, underscoring how energy availability has become a strategic bottleneck.
Consumer and discretionary stories were mixed. Nike shares were flagged for a record losing streak even as an insider buy from a prominent board member drew attention. Tesla garnered headlines on two fronts: ongoing regulatory scrutiny of model features and continued focus from investors on robotaxi opportunities despite a downtrend in EV unit sales; commentary suggested the stock is trading around record territory as the autonomous narrative commands attention. Elsewhere, Kroger increased its buyback authorization amid a challenging stock performance into month-end, signaling management’s conviction despite near-term pressure.
Industrials and defense saw positive catalysts. Huntington Ingalls shares were reported to be at record highs following the Navy’s selection of the company to design and build a new class of frigates. In cybersecurity and software, ServiceNow announced the acquisition of Armis for $7.75 billion to bolster an AI-centric “control tower” strategy. Space also drew attention: AST SpaceMobile’s shares were said to be surging ahead of next-generation satellite launches, illustrating continued investor interest in communications infrastructure.
Bonds
Treasuries rallied modestly, reflected in strength across duration proxies:
- TLT (long duration) rose about 0.6% to 88.02 (from 87.50).
- IEF (intermediate) gained roughly 0.25% to 96.34 (from 96.10).
- SHY (short-term) edged up about 0.1% to 82.735 (from 82.68).
The constructive tone in bonds aligns with anchored inflation expectations and a still-elevated but manageable 10-year yield near 4.17%. Notably, recent commentary on GDP at 4.3% annualized in the third quarter and multi-decade-low jobless claims underscores economic resilience. A gauge of bond-market volatility was also said to have signaled an “all-clear” for stocks, consistent with the supportive cross-asset backdrop. Together, these dynamics reduce left-tail risk pricing in rates and support higher equity risk appetites.
Commodities
- Precious metals showed divergence: GLD slipped about 0.4% to 411.93 (from 413.64) while SLV climbed roughly 0.6% to 65.23 (from 64.84). Articles highlighted how the pre-holiday run in metals has been strong—some even called it “unhinged”—with others framing the surge as a revival of the “great debasement trade.” Another view suggested gold could continue to benefit into 2026. Today’s modest pullback in GLD appears more like consolidation within a constructive intermediate trend, while silver’s relative strength continues to outperform.
- Energy was mixed: USO eased about 0.2% to 70.19 (from 70.30). Natural gas (UNG) fell about 3.9% to 12.40 (from 12.90). The broad commodity basket DBC ended essentially unchanged at 22.64. News flow around global oil supply was active, including a report that a sanctions-hit Indian refiner delayed maintenance work, but the price impact as reflected in USO remained modest.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD traded near 1.1781 within a very tight intraday range, reflecting a quiet holiday period. A separate note observed that the U.S. dollar recently printed a “golden cross,” suggesting the potential for early-2026 stabilization after a difficult year; however, today’s EURUSD moves were marginal.
- Crypto was stable. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked around 87,842, within a range of roughly 87,199 to 88,575 and close to its open near 87,727. Ether (ETHUSD) traded around 2,949, ranging 2,910 to 2,971. An article took stock of 2025 for digital assets—despite multiple industry milestones, prices struggled—setting the stage for 2026 policy attention. Today’s price action suggests consolidation, with neither risk-on nor risk-off extremes evident.
Notable company and thematic news
- Nvidia (NVDA): Entered a non-exclusive licensing deal with Groq, and will hire members of the startup’s executive team—supportive for Nvidia’s AI ecosystem positioning. Additional strategy notes point to continued AI buildout as a key 2026 theme.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Acquiring data-center partner Intersect for $4.75 billion to secure power availability for AI infrastructure.
- ServiceNow (NOW): Buying Armis for $7.75 billion, expanding into cybersecurity as part of an “AI control tower” strategy.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): First out with an oral weight-loss drug; shares were said to jump on the news.
- Honeywell (HON): Announced a $470 million Flexjet settlement and lowered profit outlook; the stock fell on the update.
- Huntington Ingalls (HII): Reported at record highs following a major Navy frigate contract.
- Nike (NKE): On pace to extend a record losing streak; insider purchases by a board member drew focus.
- Tesla (TSLA): Renewed regulatory attention on certain vehicle features; separate coverage highlighted investor focus on robotaxis even as EV unit sales fall.
- AMC Entertainment (AMC): Shares sank to a sixth straight record low following another debt-agreement amendment involving share sales.
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Shares were noted as surging ahead of satellite launches; the group remains a focal point within space communications.
- Clearwater Analytics (CWAN): Agreed to an $8.4 billion buyout by private equity following a string of acquisitions; the market had not rewarded its prior M&A.
- Kroger (KR): Boosted its stock buyback program, signaling confidence amid a tough month for the shares.
Outlook—what to watch
- Seasonality and breadth: The Santa Claus period typically extends into the first two trading days of the new year. Watch if participation broadens beyond megacap tech into small caps and cyclicals; IWM’s steady grind higher is constructive.
- Yields and curve: With 10-year around 4.17% and a positive slope to the curve, incremental moves in the long end will influence financials (XLF) and defensives (XLU). Lower long yields could further support duration-sensitive groups; a backing-up of yields could test equity multiples.
- AI and energy constraints: The scramble to secure data-center power (Alphabet-Intersect) and strategic M&A (ServiceNow-Armis) suggests energy availability and cybersecurity will be 2026 investment priorities. Follow on any updates to capacity additions and grid access.
- Metals leadership: After a powerful run, gold’s consolidation versus silver’s relative strength bears watching. A stable dollar and anchored inflation expectations could temper further upside, but safe-haven and debasement narratives persist.
- Policy and regulation: Tesla’s regulatory headlines illustrate case-specific risks; broader policy signals for crypto into 2026 were also noted by industry watchers. Any shifts in enforcement or clarity could influence risk appetite.
Risks
- Macro downside surprise: Articles flagged the possibility of a stagflation phase before later reacceleration. If growth slows while inflation remains sticky, multiples and margins could compress.
- complacency risk: With the “fear gauge” low, positioning may be skewed to the upside; a volatility shock—via geopolitics or policy—could drive outsized moves.
- AI capex and monetization: If AI spending fails to translate into earnings leverage (e.g., Meta concerns), sentiment could sour sector-wide. Energy constraints for data centers are another bottleneck risk.
- Commodity and currency swings: A renewed dollar uptrend (the “golden cross”) could pressure commodities and multinationals. Conversely, renewed commodity strength could rekindle inflation concerns.
- Regulatory and legal: From Tesla’s vehicle scrutiny to corporate legal charges (Honeywell), idiosyncratic risks remain elevated and can spill over to sector peers.
Bottom line
Equities closed higher across large and small caps, supported by stable yields, anchored inflation expectations, and constructive seasonal dynamics. Sector participation broadened, with financials, health care, utilities, and technology all in the green. Bonds firmed modestly, metals diverged, and crypto and FX traded tight. Into year-end and the early days of 2026, investors will be watching whether breadth continues to improve, whether long-end yields stay contained, and how AI-related capital allocation and energy constraints evolve. The risk-reward remains balanced by resilient macro data and low volatility, but investors should remain attentive to policy, regulatory, and commodity-driven surprises.
Overview
U.S. equities finished modestly higher into the holiday period, extending the market’s seasonal strength and keeping major benchmarks near record territory. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) gained about 0.3% to 690.28 versus a prior close of 687.96. The Nasdaq 100 tracker (QQQ) added roughly 0.3% to 623.94, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) rose about 0.6% to 486.97. Small caps (IWM) advanced about 0.2% to 252.70. Sector performance was broadly constructive with technology (XLK), financials (XLF), health care (XLV), and utilities (XLU) each in the green.
The macro backdrop remains supportive: Treasury yields sit in a stable range with a positively sloped curve between the 2-year at 3.44% and the 10-year at 4.17%, and long-end yields around 4.84% on the 30-year. Inflation expectations from 1 to 10 years remain anchored between roughly 2.3% and 3.2%, in line with a soft-landing narrative even as individual data points—like robust third-quarter GDP and low jobless claims—signal resilience. Commodities diverged: gold eased modestly after a strong pre-holiday run, but silver extended gains; oil was essentially flat to slightly weaker and natural gas fell. Crypto and EURUSD were rangebound.
Macro: yields, inflation, expectations
Treasury yields, as of the latest available reading, reflect a curve consistent with steady growth and anchored inflation expectations. The 2-year yield stands at 3.44%, the 5-year at 3.71%, the 10-year at 4.17%, and the 30-year at 4.84%. The positive 2s10s slope is notable and indicative of reduced recession probability compared with prior periods of inversion, though today’s shape alone does not guarantee growth.
Inflation data for November show headline CPI at 325.031 and core CPI at 331.068 (index levels), while market- and model-based inflation expectations remain contained: 1-year at 3.20%, 5-year at 2.42%, 10-year at 2.34%, and 30-year at 2.44%. That configuration points to a view that near-term inflation is still working lower toward the Fed’s target over time, with long-term expectations staying well anchored. Articles in the past day highlight ongoing debates: some see risks of stagflation in the near term before a later reacceleration, while others stress the economy’s resilience, citing strong GDP and historically low jobless claims. The combination—solid growth, low layoffs, and anchored expectations—has underpinned equity multiples and kept rate volatility contained.
Equities and sectors
- Broad indices: SPY +0.3% to 690.28 (vs. 687.96 prior close). QQQ +0.3% to 623.94 (vs. 622.11). DIA +0.6% to 486.97 (vs. 484.23). IWM +0.2% to 252.70 (vs. 252.08).
- Sector ETFs: Technology (XLK) rose about 0.25% to 146.31 (from 145.95). Financials (XLF) gained roughly 0.5% to 55.71 (from 55.43), consistent with a positively sloped curve that can support net interest margins. Health Care (XLV) advanced around 0.5% to 155.76 (from 154.99). Utilities (XLU) finished near 42.82 (from 42.62), up about 0.5%—a constructive move for defensives, possibly reflecting appetite for dividend yield and stability into year-end.
Seasonal context remains supportive. Articles noted that the “Santa Claus rally” historically spans the last five trading days of December and the first two of the new year, and that December 26 has been among the most consistently positive sessions historically. The S&P 500 recently set a record on Christmas Eve for the first time in more than a decade, reinforcing the constructive tape. A separate piece observed a subdued “fear gauge” (VIX) heading into 2026, which helps explain a bid for cyclicals and megacap tech.
Within tech and AI, several developments are important for 2026 positioning. Nvidia entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI-chip maker Groq and is set to absorb some of the startup’s executive team—supporting the view that Nvidia continues to expand its ecosystem. Additional commentary suggested one of the “Magnificent Seven” leaders has been “rumbling to life,” with Nvidia again highlighted, and another note framed what Nvidia investors might look forward to in 2026, including the trajectory of OpenAI’s next GPT model and the broader data center build-out. Meanwhile, Meta’s significant AI spending has investors weighing whether the company could revisit a “year of efficiency” to monetize AI more effectively. Alphabet moved to secure power for future AI growth by acquiring its data-center partner Intersect, underscoring how energy availability has become a strategic bottleneck.
Consumer and discretionary stories were mixed. Nike shares were flagged for a record losing streak even as an insider buy from a prominent board member drew attention. Tesla garnered headlines on two fronts: ongoing regulatory scrutiny of model features and continued focus from investors on robotaxi opportunities despite a downtrend in EV unit sales; commentary suggested the stock is trading around record territory as the autonomous narrative commands attention. Elsewhere, Kroger increased its buyback authorization amid a challenging stock performance into month-end, signaling management’s conviction despite near-term pressure.
Industrials and defense saw positive catalysts. Huntington Ingalls shares were reported to be at record highs following the Navy’s selection of the company to design and build a new class of frigates. In cybersecurity and software, ServiceNow announced the acquisition of Armis for $7.75 billion to bolster an AI-centric “control tower” strategy. Space also drew attention: AST SpaceMobile’s shares were said to be surging ahead of next-generation satellite launches, illustrating continued investor interest in communications infrastructure.
Bonds
Treasuries rallied modestly, reflected in strength across duration proxies:
- TLT (long duration) rose about 0.6% to 88.02 (from 87.50).
- IEF (intermediate) gained roughly 0.25% to 96.34 (from 96.10).
- SHY (short-term) edged up about 0.1% to 82.735 (from 82.68).
The constructive tone in bonds aligns with anchored inflation expectations and a still-elevated but manageable 10-year yield near 4.17%. Notably, recent commentary on GDP at 4.3% annualized in the third quarter and multi-decade-low jobless claims underscores economic resilience. A gauge of bond-market volatility was also said to have signaled an “all-clear” for stocks, consistent with the supportive cross-asset backdrop. Together, these dynamics reduce left-tail risk pricing in rates and support higher equity risk appetites.
Commodities
- Precious metals showed divergence: GLD slipped about 0.4% to 411.93 (from 413.64) while SLV climbed roughly 0.6% to 65.23 (from 64.84). Articles highlighted how the pre-holiday run in metals has been strong—some even called it “unhinged”—with others framing the surge as a revival of the “great debasement trade.” Another view suggested gold could continue to benefit into 2026. Today’s modest pullback in GLD appears more like consolidation within a constructive intermediate trend, while silver’s relative strength continues to outperform.
- Energy was mixed: USO eased about 0.2% to 70.19 (from 70.30). Natural gas (UNG) fell about 3.9% to 12.40 (from 12.90). The broad commodity basket DBC ended essentially unchanged at 22.64. News flow around global oil supply was active, including a report that a sanctions-hit Indian refiner delayed maintenance work, but the price impact as reflected in USO remained modest.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD traded near 1.1781 within a very tight intraday range, reflecting a quiet holiday period. A separate note observed that the U.S. dollar recently printed a “golden cross,” suggesting the potential for early-2026 stabilization after a difficult year; however, today’s EURUSD moves were marginal.
- Crypto was stable. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked around 87,842, within a range of roughly 87,199 to 88,575 and close to its open near 87,727. Ether (ETHUSD) traded around 2,949, ranging 2,910 to 2,971. An article took stock of 2025 for digital assets—despite multiple industry milestones, prices struggled—setting the stage for 2026 policy attention. Today’s price action suggests consolidation, with neither risk-on nor risk-off extremes evident.
Notable company and thematic news
- Nvidia (NVDA): Entered a non-exclusive licensing deal with Groq, and will hire members of the startup’s executive team—supportive for Nvidia’s AI ecosystem positioning. Additional strategy notes point to continued AI buildout as a key 2026 theme.
- Alphabet (GOOGL): Acquiring data-center partner Intersect for $4.75 billion to secure power availability for AI infrastructure.
- ServiceNow (NOW): Buying Armis for $7.75 billion, expanding into cybersecurity as part of an “AI control tower” strategy.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO): First out with an oral weight-loss drug; shares were said to jump on the news.
- Honeywell (HON): Announced a $470 million Flexjet settlement and lowered profit outlook; the stock fell on the update.
- Huntington Ingalls (HII): Reported at record highs following a major Navy frigate contract.
- Nike (NKE): On pace to extend a record losing streak; insider purchases by a board member drew focus.
- Tesla (TSLA): Renewed regulatory attention on certain vehicle features; separate coverage highlighted investor focus on robotaxis even as EV unit sales fall.
- AMC Entertainment (AMC): Shares sank to a sixth straight record low following another debt-agreement amendment involving share sales.
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Shares were noted as surging ahead of satellite launches; the group remains a focal point within space communications.
- Clearwater Analytics (CWAN): Agreed to an $8.4 billion buyout by private equity following a string of acquisitions; the market had not rewarded its prior M&A.
- Kroger (KR): Boosted its stock buyback program, signaling confidence amid a tough month for the shares.
Outlook—what to watch
- Seasonality and breadth: The Santa Claus period typically extends into the first two trading days of the new year. Watch if participation broadens beyond megacap tech into small caps and cyclicals; IWM’s steady grind higher is constructive.
- Yields and curve: With 10-year around 4.17% and a positive slope to the curve, incremental moves in the long end will influence financials (XLF) and defensives (XLU). Lower long yields could further support duration-sensitive groups; a backing-up of yields could test equity multiples.
- AI and energy constraints: The scramble to secure data-center power (Alphabet-Intersect) and strategic M&A (ServiceNow-Armis) suggests energy availability and cybersecurity will be 2026 investment priorities. Follow on any updates to capacity additions and grid access.
- Metals leadership: After a powerful run, gold’s consolidation versus silver’s relative strength bears watching. A stable dollar and anchored inflation expectations could temper further upside, but safe-haven and debasement narratives persist.
- Policy and regulation: Tesla’s regulatory headlines illustrate case-specific risks; broader policy signals for crypto into 2026 were also noted by industry watchers. Any shifts in enforcement or clarity could influence risk appetite.
Risks
- Macro downside surprise: Articles flagged the possibility of a stagflation phase before later reacceleration. If growth slows while inflation remains sticky, multiples and margins could compress.
- complacency risk: With the “fear gauge” low, positioning may be skewed to the upside; a volatility shock—via geopolitics or policy—could drive outsized moves.
- AI capex and monetization: If AI spending fails to translate into earnings leverage (e.g., Meta concerns), sentiment could sour sector-wide. Energy constraints for data centers are another bottleneck risk.
- Commodity and currency swings: A renewed dollar uptrend (the “golden cross”) could pressure commodities and multinationals. Conversely, renewed commodity strength could rekindle inflation concerns.
- Regulatory and legal: From Tesla’s vehicle scrutiny to corporate legal charges (Honeywell), idiosyncratic risks remain elevated and can spill over to sector peers.
Bottom line
Equities closed higher across large and small caps, supported by stable yields, anchored inflation expectations, and constructive seasonal dynamics. Sector participation broadened, with financials, health care, utilities, and technology all in the green. Bonds firmed modestly, metals diverged, and crypto and FX traded tight. Into year-end and the early days of 2026, investors will be watching whether breadth continues to improve, whether long-end yields stay contained, and how AI-related capital allocation and energy constraints evolve. The risk-reward remains balanced by resilient macro data and low volatility, but investors should remain attentive to policy, regulatory, and commodity-driven surprises.