State of Market: Close 12/09/25
Tech ekes out gains into the close as defensives and banks lag; gold and crypto rally while oil and gas retreat ahead of the Fed
QQQ edges higher while SPY and the Dow slip; silver outperforms gold, oil dips and natural gas tumbles; Nvidia climbs on China-sales developments, CVS rallies on guidance, Marvell underperforms
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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Stocks finished mixed into the close, with modest outperformance from growth and small caps against weakness in the Dow and several defensives. With the Federal Reserve decision expected later this week, cross-asset signals were balanced: long-duration Treasurys were roughly flat to slightly higher, precious metals advanced, the euro softened a touch versus the dollar, and crypto rallied. Sector leadership skewed toward technology, while financials and health care weighed.
Equities overview
- S&P 500 proxy SPY closed at 683.05 versus the prior 683.63, down about 0.08% on the day.
- Nasdaq-100 tracker QQQ ended at 625.11 versus 624.28 previously, up roughly 0.13%.
- The Dow proxy DIA finished at 476.44 versus 478.15, down around 0.36%.
- Small caps outperformed: IWM settled at 251.37 versus 250.87, up roughly 0.20%.
The mixed profile aligns with a market that is calibrating expectations around policy and growth. Gains in QQQ and IWM point to a modest pro-risk tilt within equities, offset by pressure in the Dow where health care and financials feature more prominently.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation and expectations
Treasury yields remain elevated on the long end relative to short tenors. As of the latest available reading (Dec 5), the 2-year Treasury yield stood at 3.56%, the 5-year at 3.72%, the 10-year at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 4.79%. The curve remains upward sloping from 2s to 10s, with term premiums clearly present beyond the 10-year point. This structure helps explain the day’s mixed performance in duration‑sensitive assets: long-duration bond prices were little changed overall, while intermediate tenors softened modestly.
On inflation, the latest reported indices (September) show headline CPI at 324.368 and core CPI at 330.542 (index levels), with PCE at 127.625 and core PCE at 126.954. While these are not expressed as year-over-year rates, they serve as a reminder that the price level remains elevated versus pre-pandemic baselines. Market-based inflation expectations as of November indicate 5-year breakevens around 2.35%, 10-year around 2.27%, and 5y5y forward near 2.18%—levels consistent with longer-run inflation near the Fed’s target range, even as near-term realized inflation data have been choppy.
Labor data headlines underscore a nuanced growth picture. A MarketWatch report noted job openings rebounded while hiring didn’t, framing the U.S. as a “low hire, low fire” economy, potentially influenced by seasonal holiday needs. That combination can sustain spending without overheating wages, but it also warns of fragile momentum beneath headline openings. Against that backdrop, a separate MarketWatch piece described how bond investors have entered a “disappointment phase” of the rate-cutting cycle, with long yields pushing higher despite anticipated policy easing. For equities, disappointment that yields have not fallen more decisively can cap multiple expansion, particularly for rate-sensitive defensives and high-duration assets.
The policy outlook is front and center this week. Several analyses highlight that what the Fed communicates about balance sheet and asset-purchase plans could matter as much as the policy rate path. Messaging that convincingly anchors long-term yields could be supportive for risk assets even if the rate cut itself is widely anticipated.
Sectors
- Technology (XLK 148.04 vs 147.63 prior) gained about 0.28%, continuing to show relative strength into the close.
- Financials (XLF 53.28 vs 53.48) slipped roughly 0.37%.
- Health care (XLV 149.98 vs 151.43) fell around 0.96%.
The sector mix mirrors the index dispersion: tech leadership supported QQQ, while weakness in banks and health care weighed on the Dow and pressured SPY. Within technology, company-specific drivers were active. MarketWatch reported Nvidia’s stock rose as the administration signaled it would allow chip sales to China again; Nvidia previously estimated lost China revenue at about $8 billion per quarter even for a scaled-down product, highlighting the magnitude of the potential opportunity. In contrast, Marvell fell on worries related to its positioning with key hyperscale customers. CNBC noted Broadcom shares recently hit an all-time high, underscoring ongoing enthusiasm for AI infrastructure beneficiaries.
Health care headlines were mixed. MarketWatch noted CVS rallied after boosting 2025 guidance and outlining 2026 expectations; the stock was up about 4% at the open. Separately, CNBC reported the FDA approved a Merck treatment aimed at protecting decimated U.S. cattle herds from screwworm—news that speaks to product-cycle momentum within pharma, though the piece did not specify price action for Merck today.
Media and communication services saw merger headlines that will likely influence positioning in coming sessions. MarketWatch detailed a bidding war scenario in which Paramount offered substantially more than Netflix for Warner Bros. Discovery, while a separate MarketWatch piece cited comments from the President suggesting Netflix’s original bid “could be a problem,” raising a regulatory flag. The evolving competitive and antitrust landscape could inject volatility into NFLX and WBD. Meanwhile, MarketWatch reported the European Commission opened another antitrust investigation into Google focused on AI, spotlighting ongoing regulatory risk around large platforms’ competitive conduct.
Index composition changes and single-stock stories also colored the tape. MarketWatch highlighted Ares being added to the S&P 500, with its stock surging on the news—index inclusion tends to catalyze flows from passive strategies. An IBM plan to acquire Confluent for $11 billion was framed by MarketWatch as a data-and-AI infrastructure bet; that could have implications across the analytics and streaming-data ecosystem. And CNBC noted Boeing closed a key supplier acquisition, signaling ongoing supply chain and capacity alignment in aerospace.
Bonds
Price action in bond ETFs aligned with a slightly higher-in-duration theme:
- TLT (long Treasurys) ticked up to 87.955 from 87.88, roughly +0.09%.
- IEF (intermediate) eased to 96.135 from 96.27, about -0.14%.
- SHY (short) slipped to 82.72 from 82.75, about -0.04%.
Taken together with the yield levels, the moves suggest modest curve nuance ahead of the Fed: intermediate tenors under a bit of pressure while the long end steadied. Markets remain attentive to any signal on reinvestments or balance sheet that might pull long yields lower.
Commodities
Precious metals outperformed:
- GLD rose to 387.40 from 385.42 (+0.51%).
- SLV jumped to 55.15 from 52.71 (+4.6%).
Energy-linked ETFs lagged:
- USO declined to 69.87 from 70.49 (-0.88%).
- UNG fell sharply to 14.09 from 15.07 (-6.5%).
- The broad commodities basket DBC slipped to 22.985 from 23.04 (-0.24%).
The rare combination of firmer precious metals alongside a slightly stronger dollar (see FX below) points to diversification demand and hedging into the policy event, while lower oil and especially natural gas signal softening momentum on the cyclical commodities side today.
FX and crypto
EURUSD marked 1.1632 with a day range of roughly 1.1611 to 1.1654 and an open at 1.1641, implying a modest euro downtick and a slightly firmer dollar into the close. Dollar firmness alongside resilient U.S. long-end yields remains a near-term constraint for global risk sentiment, though the effect was not decisive today.
Crypto risk rallied. BTCUSD marked 93,121 with a range of about 89,512 to 94,656 and an open near 89,934, up roughly 3.5% on the session. ETHUSD marked 3,327 with a 3,093 to 3,401 range and an open near 3,108, up about 7.1%. With policy in focus, the asset class’s beta and liquidity appeal were evident. MarketWatch commentary last month on crypto volatility highlighted the asset class’s susceptibility to narrative-driven swings; today’s move arrives as a countertrend rally ahead of key macro catalysts. A separate MarketWatch piece noted a bitcoin treasury company “Strategy” added roughly $1 billion of bitcoin last week, underscoring ongoing institutional participation, even as a CNBC survey pointed to public skepticism around AI—illustrating how institutional and public sentiment can diverge across innovation-linked assets.
Notable movers and themes from headlines
- Nvidia (NVDA): Stock rose on the prospect of resumed China chip sales; prior estimates of forgone China revenue (~$8 billion per quarter) underscore the potential market size if restrictions ease sustainably. Other headlines noted enforcement actions around chip smuggling shortly before the green light, highlighting policy volatility risk in the space.
- Broadcom (AVGO): Shares hit an all-time high recently, reinforcing leadership among AI hardware and networking beneficiaries.
- Marvell (MRVL): Shares fell on concerns about hyperscale customer concentration and competitive positioning.
- CVS (CVS): Rallied after boosting 2025 guidance and sharing 2026 expectations.
- Google (GOOGL): New European Commission antitrust probe in AI underscores regulatory headwinds for large platforms.
- M&A/Media: Paramount’s higher bid for WBD versus Netflix’s earlier agreement and presidential antitrust commentary add deal-risk complexity for NFLX and WBD positioning.
- Index changes: Ares (ARES) was added to the S&P 500, with shares surging on the announcement.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Fed decision and guidance: Beyond the policy rate move, watch balance sheet and asset‑purchase communications. Clarity that anchors the long end could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive segments.
- Long-end yields: 10-year at 4.14% and 30-year at 4.79% remain a key constraint on multiples. A durable move lower would be supportive of SPY and rate‑sensitive sectors; a renewed drift higher would challenge defensives and longer-duration growth alike.
- AI and semiconductors: Follow-through on Nvidia’s China channel and any additional policy developments after the mixed enforcement/green-light headlines. Monitor second-derivative beneficiaries (accelerator networks, optical, power, and storage) and names under competitive scrutiny like MRVL.
- Media consolidation and antitrust: The NFLX–WBD situation and Paramount’s bid may see incremental regulatory commentary and shareholder responses. Positioning could remain volatile.
- Precious metals: After today’s gains in GLD and outsized strength in SLV, watch whether post-Fed price action confirms hedging demand or unwinds if policy guidance surprises dovishly and the dollar softens.
- Small caps: IWM outperformed today; durability of that trend will hinge on financing costs and earnings revisions. MarketWatch flagged that rising yields could challenge small caps in 2026 even as fundamentals improve—something to monitor if long yields resist moving lower.
Risks
- Policy disappointment: MarketWatch characterized a “disappointment phase” in bonds; if the Fed’s communication fails to pull down the long end, equities could struggle to expand multiples.
- Regulatory and antitrust: EU’s Google probe and U.S. antitrust scrutiny around major media deals create headline risk for mega-cap platforms and streaming.
- Geopolitics and trade: Semiconductor export policy toward China remains fluid; quick shifts can alter revenue expectations for chipmakers and suppliers.
- Consumer dynamics: Changes to student loan repayment programs and uneven hiring could weigh on discretionary spending in early 2026, even if current-season openings look stable.
- Commodity and currency volatility: Further dollar strength can tighten financial conditions and weigh on global risk, while sharp moves in energy (notably natural gas) can impact inflation expectations and cyclicals.
Bottom line
Into the Fed, the market delivered a classic pre‑event session: mixed index performance with tech leadership, modest weakness in banks and health care, firmer precious metals, contained long-duration bonds, a slightly stronger dollar, and a risk-on bid in crypto. The policy communication around the long end of the curve may be the swing factor for whether QQQ’s leadership broadens to SPY and DIA—or whether today’s dispersion persists. Company-specific catalysts in AI infrastructure and media will continue to shape sector leadership alongside the macro path of yields and the dollar.
Stocks finished mixed into the close, with modest outperformance from growth and small caps against weakness in the Dow and several defensives. With the Federal Reserve decision expected later this week, cross-asset signals were balanced: long-duration Treasurys were roughly flat to slightly higher, precious metals advanced, the euro softened a touch versus the dollar, and crypto rallied. Sector leadership skewed toward technology, while financials and health care weighed.
Equities overview
- S&P 500 proxy SPY closed at 683.05 versus the prior 683.63, down about 0.08% on the day.
- Nasdaq-100 tracker QQQ ended at 625.11 versus 624.28 previously, up roughly 0.13%.
- The Dow proxy DIA finished at 476.44 versus 478.15, down around 0.36%.
- Small caps outperformed: IWM settled at 251.37 versus 250.87, up roughly 0.20%.
The mixed profile aligns with a market that is calibrating expectations around policy and growth. Gains in QQQ and IWM point to a modest pro-risk tilt within equities, offset by pressure in the Dow where health care and financials feature more prominently.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation and expectations
Treasury yields remain elevated on the long end relative to short tenors. As of the latest available reading (Dec 5), the 2-year Treasury yield stood at 3.56%, the 5-year at 3.72%, the 10-year at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 4.79%. The curve remains upward sloping from 2s to 10s, with term premiums clearly present beyond the 10-year point. This structure helps explain the day’s mixed performance in duration‑sensitive assets: long-duration bond prices were little changed overall, while intermediate tenors softened modestly.
On inflation, the latest reported indices (September) show headline CPI at 324.368 and core CPI at 330.542 (index levels), with PCE at 127.625 and core PCE at 126.954. While these are not expressed as year-over-year rates, they serve as a reminder that the price level remains elevated versus pre-pandemic baselines. Market-based inflation expectations as of November indicate 5-year breakevens around 2.35%, 10-year around 2.27%, and 5y5y forward near 2.18%—levels consistent with longer-run inflation near the Fed’s target range, even as near-term realized inflation data have been choppy.
Labor data headlines underscore a nuanced growth picture. A MarketWatch report noted job openings rebounded while hiring didn’t, framing the U.S. as a “low hire, low fire” economy, potentially influenced by seasonal holiday needs. That combination can sustain spending without overheating wages, but it also warns of fragile momentum beneath headline openings. Against that backdrop, a separate MarketWatch piece described how bond investors have entered a “disappointment phase” of the rate-cutting cycle, with long yields pushing higher despite anticipated policy easing. For equities, disappointment that yields have not fallen more decisively can cap multiple expansion, particularly for rate-sensitive defensives and high-duration assets.
The policy outlook is front and center this week. Several analyses highlight that what the Fed communicates about balance sheet and asset-purchase plans could matter as much as the policy rate path. Messaging that convincingly anchors long-term yields could be supportive for risk assets even if the rate cut itself is widely anticipated.
Sectors
- Technology (XLK 148.04 vs 147.63 prior) gained about 0.28%, continuing to show relative strength into the close.
- Financials (XLF 53.28 vs 53.48) slipped roughly 0.37%.
- Health care (XLV 149.98 vs 151.43) fell around 0.96%.
The sector mix mirrors the index dispersion: tech leadership supported QQQ, while weakness in banks and health care weighed on the Dow and pressured SPY. Within technology, company-specific drivers were active. MarketWatch reported Nvidia’s stock rose as the administration signaled it would allow chip sales to China again; Nvidia previously estimated lost China revenue at about $8 billion per quarter even for a scaled-down product, highlighting the magnitude of the potential opportunity. In contrast, Marvell fell on worries related to its positioning with key hyperscale customers. CNBC noted Broadcom shares recently hit an all-time high, underscoring ongoing enthusiasm for AI infrastructure beneficiaries.
Health care headlines were mixed. MarketWatch noted CVS rallied after boosting 2025 guidance and outlining 2026 expectations; the stock was up about 4% at the open. Separately, CNBC reported the FDA approved a Merck treatment aimed at protecting decimated U.S. cattle herds from screwworm—news that speaks to product-cycle momentum within pharma, though the piece did not specify price action for Merck today.
Media and communication services saw merger headlines that will likely influence positioning in coming sessions. MarketWatch detailed a bidding war scenario in which Paramount offered substantially more than Netflix for Warner Bros. Discovery, while a separate MarketWatch piece cited comments from the President suggesting Netflix’s original bid “could be a problem,” raising a regulatory flag. The evolving competitive and antitrust landscape could inject volatility into NFLX and WBD. Meanwhile, MarketWatch reported the European Commission opened another antitrust investigation into Google focused on AI, spotlighting ongoing regulatory risk around large platforms’ competitive conduct.
Index composition changes and single-stock stories also colored the tape. MarketWatch highlighted Ares being added to the S&P 500, with its stock surging on the news—index inclusion tends to catalyze flows from passive strategies. An IBM plan to acquire Confluent for $11 billion was framed by MarketWatch as a data-and-AI infrastructure bet; that could have implications across the analytics and streaming-data ecosystem. And CNBC noted Boeing closed a key supplier acquisition, signaling ongoing supply chain and capacity alignment in aerospace.
Bonds
Price action in bond ETFs aligned with a slightly higher-in-duration theme:
- TLT (long Treasurys) ticked up to 87.955 from 87.88, roughly +0.09%.
- IEF (intermediate) eased to 96.135 from 96.27, about -0.14%.
- SHY (short) slipped to 82.72 from 82.75, about -0.04%.
Taken together with the yield levels, the moves suggest modest curve nuance ahead of the Fed: intermediate tenors under a bit of pressure while the long end steadied. Markets remain attentive to any signal on reinvestments or balance sheet that might pull long yields lower.
Commodities
Precious metals outperformed:
- GLD rose to 387.40 from 385.42 (+0.51%).
- SLV jumped to 55.15 from 52.71 (+4.6%).
Energy-linked ETFs lagged:
- USO declined to 69.87 from 70.49 (-0.88%).
- UNG fell sharply to 14.09 from 15.07 (-6.5%).
- The broad commodities basket DBC slipped to 22.985 from 23.04 (-0.24%).
The rare combination of firmer precious metals alongside a slightly stronger dollar (see FX below) points to diversification demand and hedging into the policy event, while lower oil and especially natural gas signal softening momentum on the cyclical commodities side today.
FX and crypto
EURUSD marked 1.1632 with a day range of roughly 1.1611 to 1.1654 and an open at 1.1641, implying a modest euro downtick and a slightly firmer dollar into the close. Dollar firmness alongside resilient U.S. long-end yields remains a near-term constraint for global risk sentiment, though the effect was not decisive today.
Crypto risk rallied. BTCUSD marked 93,121 with a range of about 89,512 to 94,656 and an open near 89,934, up roughly 3.5% on the session. ETHUSD marked 3,327 with a 3,093 to 3,401 range and an open near 3,108, up about 7.1%. With policy in focus, the asset class’s beta and liquidity appeal were evident. MarketWatch commentary last month on crypto volatility highlighted the asset class’s susceptibility to narrative-driven swings; today’s move arrives as a countertrend rally ahead of key macro catalysts. A separate MarketWatch piece noted a bitcoin treasury company “Strategy” added roughly $1 billion of bitcoin last week, underscoring ongoing institutional participation, even as a CNBC survey pointed to public skepticism around AI—illustrating how institutional and public sentiment can diverge across innovation-linked assets.
Notable movers and themes from headlines
- Nvidia (NVDA): Stock rose on the prospect of resumed China chip sales; prior estimates of forgone China revenue (~$8 billion per quarter) underscore the potential market size if restrictions ease sustainably. Other headlines noted enforcement actions around chip smuggling shortly before the green light, highlighting policy volatility risk in the space.
- Broadcom (AVGO): Shares hit an all-time high recently, reinforcing leadership among AI hardware and networking beneficiaries.
- Marvell (MRVL): Shares fell on concerns about hyperscale customer concentration and competitive positioning.
- CVS (CVS): Rallied after boosting 2025 guidance and sharing 2026 expectations.
- Google (GOOGL): New European Commission antitrust probe in AI underscores regulatory headwinds for large platforms.
- M&A/Media: Paramount’s higher bid for WBD versus Netflix’s earlier agreement and presidential antitrust commentary add deal-risk complexity for NFLX and WBD positioning.
- Index changes: Ares (ARES) was added to the S&P 500, with shares surging on the announcement.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Fed decision and guidance: Beyond the policy rate move, watch balance sheet and asset‑purchase communications. Clarity that anchors the long end could support equities, particularly rate-sensitive segments.
- Long-end yields: 10-year at 4.14% and 30-year at 4.79% remain a key constraint on multiples. A durable move lower would be supportive of SPY and rate‑sensitive sectors; a renewed drift higher would challenge defensives and longer-duration growth alike.
- AI and semiconductors: Follow-through on Nvidia’s China channel and any additional policy developments after the mixed enforcement/green-light headlines. Monitor second-derivative beneficiaries (accelerator networks, optical, power, and storage) and names under competitive scrutiny like MRVL.
- Media consolidation and antitrust: The NFLX–WBD situation and Paramount’s bid may see incremental regulatory commentary and shareholder responses. Positioning could remain volatile.
- Precious metals: After today’s gains in GLD and outsized strength in SLV, watch whether post-Fed price action confirms hedging demand or unwinds if policy guidance surprises dovishly and the dollar softens.
- Small caps: IWM outperformed today; durability of that trend will hinge on financing costs and earnings revisions. MarketWatch flagged that rising yields could challenge small caps in 2026 even as fundamentals improve—something to monitor if long yields resist moving lower.
Risks
- Policy disappointment: MarketWatch characterized a “disappointment phase” in bonds; if the Fed’s communication fails to pull down the long end, equities could struggle to expand multiples.
- Regulatory and antitrust: EU’s Google probe and U.S. antitrust scrutiny around major media deals create headline risk for mega-cap platforms and streaming.
- Geopolitics and trade: Semiconductor export policy toward China remains fluid; quick shifts can alter revenue expectations for chipmakers and suppliers.
- Consumer dynamics: Changes to student loan repayment programs and uneven hiring could weigh on discretionary spending in early 2026, even if current-season openings look stable.
- Commodity and currency volatility: Further dollar strength can tighten financial conditions and weigh on global risk, while sharp moves in energy (notably natural gas) can impact inflation expectations and cyclicals.
Bottom line
Into the Fed, the market delivered a classic pre‑event session: mixed index performance with tech leadership, modest weakness in banks and health care, firmer precious metals, contained long-duration bonds, a slightly stronger dollar, and a risk-on bid in crypto. The policy communication around the long end of the curve may be the swing factor for whether QQQ’s leadership broadens to SPY and DIA—or whether today’s dispersion persists. Company-specific catalysts in AI infrastructure and media will continue to shape sector leadership alongside the macro path of yields and the dollar.