State of Market: Open 12/01/25
Stocks start December on the back foot as yields firm and metals shine
Large caps and growth lean lower at the open; small caps lead declines. Bond prices slip, while gold and silver catch a bid. Dollar eases versus euro; crypto mixed with Bitcoin steady-to-firm.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Overview
U.S. equities opened softer to kick off December, with major index ETFs down modestly in early trading. The S&P 500 proxy SPY is off about 0.6% from Friday’s close, while the tech-heavy QQQ is down nearly 0.9%. Small caps are underperforming, with IWM lower by roughly 1.3%, and the Dow-tracking DIA is down about 0.6%. Sector tone is broadly cautious at the bell, led by dips in Technology and Energy. Against that backdrop, precious metals are firmer, the U.S. dollar is weaker versus the euro, and Treasury ETFs are in the red, suggesting upward pressure on yields.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, expectations
Treasury yields remain in a two-tiered configuration based on the latest available levels (11/26): the 10-year sits at 4.00% and the 30-year at 4.64%, while the 2-year is at 3.45% and the 5-year at 3.56%. Very short bills (1-month at 4.06% and 3-month at 3.92%) still trade above the 2-year, reflecting lingering inversion at the front end even as the long end holds a higher term premium. The opening dip in Treasury ETFs this morning—TLT, IEF, and SHY are all lower—signals a modest rise in yields versus Friday’s close, consistent with the softer equity tone.
Inflation data through September show headline CPI at 324.368 (index level) and core CPI at 330.542. While we don’t have month-over-month or year-over-year deltas in today’s payload, market-based and model-based expectations remain broadly anchored. Five- and ten-year breakevens are at 2.36% and 2.31%, respectively, with a 5y5y forward of 2.25%. A model-based 1-year expectation prints 2.74%. In practical terms, medium-term inflation expectations in the 2.25%–2.4% zone align with a market still looking for disinflation to persist, even if near-term readings run noisier. This anchoring helps explain why the belly of the curve (2s–5s) sits well below very short bills, while the 30-year retains a higher yield, embedding term premium and longer-horizon uncertainty.
Equities and sectors
- SPY last trades at 679.00 versus a previous close of 683.39, down 0.64%. This sets a cautious tone as investors digest the end-of-month rally into Thanksgiving and look ahead to December seasonality. Articles over the weekend noted that U.S. stock futures opened the week little changed, and that strong Thanksgiving-week performance can sometimes carry into December, but today’s open points to some consolidation.
- QQQ prints 613.88 versus 619.25, down 0.87%. Technology leadership remains in focus after a volatile November for AI beneficiaries. Recent coverage highlighted a resurgence in Big Tech last week and the ongoing, three-year AI-driven reordering of market leadership. Today’s softer open suggests investors are trimming exposure to recent winners at the margin.
- DIA is at 474.42 versus 477.18, down 0.58%. The Dow’s relative stability versus QQQ ties to heavier exposure to value and cyclicals, though it, too, is opening lower.
- IWM trades at 245.54 versus 248.75, down 1.29%. The small-cap underperformance hints at tighter financial conditions and sensitivity to higher real yields at the open.
Sectors are broadly weaker:
- XLK (Technology) is at 283.41 versus 286.22, down 0.98%, underperforming the tape. The move accords with a modestly risk-off tone in growth and ongoing debate around the breadth of AI-and-chip leadership.
- XLE (Energy) is at 90.00 versus 90.63, down 0.69%. The sector tracks softer crude proxies at the bell, even as geopolitical risk lingers around the Black Sea and shipping.
- XLF (Financials) is at 53.08/53.07 with a last of 53.075 versus 53.33, down 0.48%. Banks and diversified financials often key off the yield curve; a small rise in yields today is not translating into sector outperformance at the open.
- XLV (Health Care) is at 157.17 versus 157.65, down 0.30%, faring slightly better than the market but still in the red.
Bond market
Treasury ETFs are lower in early trading:
- TLT last prints 88.84 versus 90.21, down about 1.52%. That decline implies a push higher in long-end yields this morning relative to Friday’s close.
- IEF trades at 96.78 versus 97.50, down 0.74%, reflecting pressure in the intermediate maturities consistent with the 10-year hovering around 4% per the latest reading.
- SHY is at 82.79 versus 83.08, down 0.35%. Even the front-end is slipping a touch, suggesting a small parallel shift up at the open.
The move lower in bond prices lines up with the equity softness and could reflect positioning into December and sensitivity to upcoming data (not provided here) as markets recalibrate the pace and timing of any future Fed policy adjustments.
Commodities
- GLD trades at 390.57 versus 387.88, up 0.69%. The bid in gold aligns with a weaker dollar versus the euro and safe-haven demand when equities and bonds slip together. One article highlighted an aggressive longer-term bank forecast for gold, underscoring how the metal’s trading range has expanded.
- SLV is at 51.95 versus 51.21, up 1.45%. Silver’s outperformance versus gold today can occur when both safe-haven and industrial-demand narratives intersect.
- USO is at 70.65 versus 71.07, down 0.59%. Articles noted that oil remains on track for its largest yearly decline since the pandemic, amid rising supply discipline questions and demand concerns; that macro framing aligns with the softer print this morning even as maritime and geopolitical risks persist.
- UNG is at 15.03 versus 14.73, up 2.04%, reflecting resilience in natural gas prices.
- DBC last traded at 23.06 on Friday and is unchanged so far today based on the last print; quotes indicate a slightly higher bid/ask but no new trade at the open. Broad commodities remain mixed at the start of the session.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD marks 1.1632 versus an open of 1.1590, indicating euro strength and a weaker U.S. dollar to start the week. The dollar’s dip is directionally consistent with the morning bid in precious metals.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marked at 86,233 with an intraday high of 86,962 and low of 84,729; that’s modestly above its stated open of 85,813. An article earlier flagged renewed slippage and the possibility that the largest corporate holder could be forced to sell if conditions worsen. At today’s open, Bitcoin is steady-to-firm versus its open level, but the narrative of increasing sensitivity to liquidity and corporate balance sheet dynamics remains relevant.
- Ether (ETHUSD) marks 2,818 versus an open of 2,823, essentially flat to slightly lower. Crypto broadly appears mixed in early U.S. hours.
Notable company and thematic news from the last 24 hours
- Chip design and AI: Synopsys secured a $2 billion investment and a partnership with Nvidia, underscoring the ongoing push to integrate chip-design software with AI workflows. This reinforces the thesis from multiple pieces that AI continues to reorder market leadership and investment priorities, even as near-term tech shares are softer at the open.
- Enterprise software: A separate report noted Workday weakness on subscription revenue guidance concerns, emblematic of investor scrutiny on growth visibility across software after a volatile November. Another article pointed to potential bargains in the software space after sector underperformance this year.
- Aerospace: Airbus shares reportedly suffered their worst day in a year tied to A320 issues, highlighting idiosyncratic risk within industrials and airlines into the busy holiday travel period.
- Energy and geopolitics: Coverage of Black Sea tanker risks and mine threats underscores latent supply chain vulnerabilities, even as crude prices remain subdued on macro concerns.
- Market structure: A Black Friday note on the CME futures halt due to a data center cooling issue serves as a reminder of operational risks in market infrastructure, though trading has since resumed.
- Seasonality and breadth: Recent articles emphasized a strong Thanksgiving week and the potential for December follow-through, juxtaposed with caution around speculative pockets—a theme to watch as leadership remains concentrated.
How it ties together
Today’s opening pattern—equities lower, Treasuries lower (yields up), metals higher, dollar softer versus the euro—suggests modest risk-off but not disorderly dynamics. Higher real rates at the margin can pressure growth equities (QQQ leading the decline), while the small-cap underperformance (IWM) points to sensitivity to financing costs and a still-discerning risk appetite after November’s swings. Anchored medium-term inflation expectations near 2.3%–2.4% keep longer-run valuation assumptions in check, even as near-term growth and policy uncertainties nudge yields slightly higher.
The AI-capex narrative is still a major macro input. Articles referencing three years of AI mania, Big Tech’s rebound last week, and new tie-ups in chip design all speak to an investment cycle that is reshaping earnings and capex across sectors. However, this leadership remains concentrated, leaving the broader market exposed to factor rotations when yields back up or when investors reassess revenue durability in software and semis.
Meanwhile, commodity signals are mixed: crude remains soft despite geopolitical noise—consistent with the thesis that supply/demand rebalancing and growth questions outweigh near-term shocks—while precious metals benefit from both the softer dollar and a desire for ballast when both stocks and bonds trade lower together.
Outlook
Into the rest of the day and week, watch for:
- How the 10-year yield trades around the 4% area and whether the curve’s front-end inversion persists—these will inform equity risk appetite and sector leadership.
- Follow-through in precious metals after this morning’s bid; sustained dollar weakness versus the euro would support the move.
- Energy price action relative to geopolitical headlines; any renewed volatility in crude could quickly rotate sector leadership.
- Tech and AI-linked news flow, including partnerships and guidance updates, given their outsized impact on index-level performance.
- Retail sector tone after the holiday shopping weekend, with one analysis noting that weaker post-Thanksgiving performance can sometimes precede a stronger year-end run.
Risks
Key risks to the near-term view include: (1) a renewed rise in real yields that pressures equity multiples, (2) a pullback in AI-related capex that dents the leadership cohort, (3) commodity or shipping disruptions that reintroduce inflation volatility, (4) speculative excess in pockets of the market that could amplify drawdowns, (5) crypto-specific forced selling risks flagged in coverage, and (6) operational risks in market plumbing highlighted by last week’s futures interruption.
Bottom line
The first prints of December show a market catching its breath: stocks lower with growth and small caps leading the decline, bond prices down as yields firm, and metals higher alongside a softer dollar. The macro mix—anchored medium-term inflation expectations but still-sensitive rates—keeps the focus on earnings durability and positioning into year-end. Leadership remains narrow and news-driven, particularly around AI and semis, while commodities reflect a tug-of-war between geopolitics and growth expectations. Staying disciplined on risk, sector balance, and rate sensitivity remains prudent as the new month begins.
Overview
U.S. equities opened softer to kick off December, with major index ETFs down modestly in early trading. The S&P 500 proxy SPY is off about 0.6% from Friday’s close, while the tech-heavy QQQ is down nearly 0.9%. Small caps are underperforming, with IWM lower by roughly 1.3%, and the Dow-tracking DIA is down about 0.6%. Sector tone is broadly cautious at the bell, led by dips in Technology and Energy. Against that backdrop, precious metals are firmer, the U.S. dollar is weaker versus the euro, and Treasury ETFs are in the red, suggesting upward pressure on yields.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, expectations
Treasury yields remain in a two-tiered configuration based on the latest available levels (11/26): the 10-year sits at 4.00% and the 30-year at 4.64%, while the 2-year is at 3.45% and the 5-year at 3.56%. Very short bills (1-month at 4.06% and 3-month at 3.92%) still trade above the 2-year, reflecting lingering inversion at the front end even as the long end holds a higher term premium. The opening dip in Treasury ETFs this morning—TLT, IEF, and SHY are all lower—signals a modest rise in yields versus Friday’s close, consistent with the softer equity tone.
Inflation data through September show headline CPI at 324.368 (index level) and core CPI at 330.542. While we don’t have month-over-month or year-over-year deltas in today’s payload, market-based and model-based expectations remain broadly anchored. Five- and ten-year breakevens are at 2.36% and 2.31%, respectively, with a 5y5y forward of 2.25%. A model-based 1-year expectation prints 2.74%. In practical terms, medium-term inflation expectations in the 2.25%–2.4% zone align with a market still looking for disinflation to persist, even if near-term readings run noisier. This anchoring helps explain why the belly of the curve (2s–5s) sits well below very short bills, while the 30-year retains a higher yield, embedding term premium and longer-horizon uncertainty.
Equities and sectors
- SPY last trades at 679.00 versus a previous close of 683.39, down 0.64%. This sets a cautious tone as investors digest the end-of-month rally into Thanksgiving and look ahead to December seasonality. Articles over the weekend noted that U.S. stock futures opened the week little changed, and that strong Thanksgiving-week performance can sometimes carry into December, but today’s open points to some consolidation.
- QQQ prints 613.88 versus 619.25, down 0.87%. Technology leadership remains in focus after a volatile November for AI beneficiaries. Recent coverage highlighted a resurgence in Big Tech last week and the ongoing, three-year AI-driven reordering of market leadership. Today’s softer open suggests investors are trimming exposure to recent winners at the margin.
- DIA is at 474.42 versus 477.18, down 0.58%. The Dow’s relative stability versus QQQ ties to heavier exposure to value and cyclicals, though it, too, is opening lower.
- IWM trades at 245.54 versus 248.75, down 1.29%. The small-cap underperformance hints at tighter financial conditions and sensitivity to higher real yields at the open.
Sectors are broadly weaker:
- XLK (Technology) is at 283.41 versus 286.22, down 0.98%, underperforming the tape. The move accords with a modestly risk-off tone in growth and ongoing debate around the breadth of AI-and-chip leadership.
- XLE (Energy) is at 90.00 versus 90.63, down 0.69%. The sector tracks softer crude proxies at the bell, even as geopolitical risk lingers around the Black Sea and shipping.
- XLF (Financials) is at 53.08/53.07 with a last of 53.075 versus 53.33, down 0.48%. Banks and diversified financials often key off the yield curve; a small rise in yields today is not translating into sector outperformance at the open.
- XLV (Health Care) is at 157.17 versus 157.65, down 0.30%, faring slightly better than the market but still in the red.
Bond market
Treasury ETFs are lower in early trading:
- TLT last prints 88.84 versus 90.21, down about 1.52%. That decline implies a push higher in long-end yields this morning relative to Friday’s close.
- IEF trades at 96.78 versus 97.50, down 0.74%, reflecting pressure in the intermediate maturities consistent with the 10-year hovering around 4% per the latest reading.
- SHY is at 82.79 versus 83.08, down 0.35%. Even the front-end is slipping a touch, suggesting a small parallel shift up at the open.
The move lower in bond prices lines up with the equity softness and could reflect positioning into December and sensitivity to upcoming data (not provided here) as markets recalibrate the pace and timing of any future Fed policy adjustments.
Commodities
- GLD trades at 390.57 versus 387.88, up 0.69%. The bid in gold aligns with a weaker dollar versus the euro and safe-haven demand when equities and bonds slip together. One article highlighted an aggressive longer-term bank forecast for gold, underscoring how the metal’s trading range has expanded.
- SLV is at 51.95 versus 51.21, up 1.45%. Silver’s outperformance versus gold today can occur when both safe-haven and industrial-demand narratives intersect.
- USO is at 70.65 versus 71.07, down 0.59%. Articles noted that oil remains on track for its largest yearly decline since the pandemic, amid rising supply discipline questions and demand concerns; that macro framing aligns with the softer print this morning even as maritime and geopolitical risks persist.
- UNG is at 15.03 versus 14.73, up 2.04%, reflecting resilience in natural gas prices.
- DBC last traded at 23.06 on Friday and is unchanged so far today based on the last print; quotes indicate a slightly higher bid/ask but no new trade at the open. Broad commodities remain mixed at the start of the session.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD marks 1.1632 versus an open of 1.1590, indicating euro strength and a weaker U.S. dollar to start the week. The dollar’s dip is directionally consistent with the morning bid in precious metals.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marked at 86,233 with an intraday high of 86,962 and low of 84,729; that’s modestly above its stated open of 85,813. An article earlier flagged renewed slippage and the possibility that the largest corporate holder could be forced to sell if conditions worsen. At today’s open, Bitcoin is steady-to-firm versus its open level, but the narrative of increasing sensitivity to liquidity and corporate balance sheet dynamics remains relevant.
- Ether (ETHUSD) marks 2,818 versus an open of 2,823, essentially flat to slightly lower. Crypto broadly appears mixed in early U.S. hours.
Notable company and thematic news from the last 24 hours
- Chip design and AI: Synopsys secured a $2 billion investment and a partnership with Nvidia, underscoring the ongoing push to integrate chip-design software with AI workflows. This reinforces the thesis from multiple pieces that AI continues to reorder market leadership and investment priorities, even as near-term tech shares are softer at the open.
- Enterprise software: A separate report noted Workday weakness on subscription revenue guidance concerns, emblematic of investor scrutiny on growth visibility across software after a volatile November. Another article pointed to potential bargains in the software space after sector underperformance this year.
- Aerospace: Airbus shares reportedly suffered their worst day in a year tied to A320 issues, highlighting idiosyncratic risk within industrials and airlines into the busy holiday travel period.
- Energy and geopolitics: Coverage of Black Sea tanker risks and mine threats underscores latent supply chain vulnerabilities, even as crude prices remain subdued on macro concerns.
- Market structure: A Black Friday note on the CME futures halt due to a data center cooling issue serves as a reminder of operational risks in market infrastructure, though trading has since resumed.
- Seasonality and breadth: Recent articles emphasized a strong Thanksgiving week and the potential for December follow-through, juxtaposed with caution around speculative pockets—a theme to watch as leadership remains concentrated.
How it ties together
Today’s opening pattern—equities lower, Treasuries lower (yields up), metals higher, dollar softer versus the euro—suggests modest risk-off but not disorderly dynamics. Higher real rates at the margin can pressure growth equities (QQQ leading the decline), while the small-cap underperformance (IWM) points to sensitivity to financing costs and a still-discerning risk appetite after November’s swings. Anchored medium-term inflation expectations near 2.3%–2.4% keep longer-run valuation assumptions in check, even as near-term growth and policy uncertainties nudge yields slightly higher.
The AI-capex narrative is still a major macro input. Articles referencing three years of AI mania, Big Tech’s rebound last week, and new tie-ups in chip design all speak to an investment cycle that is reshaping earnings and capex across sectors. However, this leadership remains concentrated, leaving the broader market exposed to factor rotations when yields back up or when investors reassess revenue durability in software and semis.
Meanwhile, commodity signals are mixed: crude remains soft despite geopolitical noise—consistent with the thesis that supply/demand rebalancing and growth questions outweigh near-term shocks—while precious metals benefit from both the softer dollar and a desire for ballast when both stocks and bonds trade lower together.
Outlook
Into the rest of the day and week, watch for:
- How the 10-year yield trades around the 4% area and whether the curve’s front-end inversion persists—these will inform equity risk appetite and sector leadership.
- Follow-through in precious metals after this morning’s bid; sustained dollar weakness versus the euro would support the move.
- Energy price action relative to geopolitical headlines; any renewed volatility in crude could quickly rotate sector leadership.
- Tech and AI-linked news flow, including partnerships and guidance updates, given their outsized impact on index-level performance.
- Retail sector tone after the holiday shopping weekend, with one analysis noting that weaker post-Thanksgiving performance can sometimes precede a stronger year-end run.
Risks
Key risks to the near-term view include: (1) a renewed rise in real yields that pressures equity multiples, (2) a pullback in AI-related capex that dents the leadership cohort, (3) commodity or shipping disruptions that reintroduce inflation volatility, (4) speculative excess in pockets of the market that could amplify drawdowns, (5) crypto-specific forced selling risks flagged in coverage, and (6) operational risks in market plumbing highlighted by last week’s futures interruption.
Bottom line
The first prints of December show a market catching its breath: stocks lower with growth and small caps leading the decline, bond prices down as yields firm, and metals higher alongside a softer dollar. The macro mix—anchored medium-term inflation expectations but still-sensitive rates—keeps the focus on earnings durability and positioning into year-end. Leadership remains narrow and news-driven, particularly around AI and semis, while commodities reflect a tug-of-war between geopolitics and growth expectations. Staying disciplined on risk, sector balance, and rate sensitivity remains prudent as the new month begins.