State of Market: Open 01/02/26
Stocks start 2026 firmer as tech, precious metals lead; bonds bid with 10-year near 4.14%
Tariff reprieve boosts home furnishings, AI and tech pace early gains; gold and silver extend strength even as EUR/USD slips. Fed path remains uncertain after split minutes.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Equities opened 2026 on a constructive note, with major U.S. index ETFs in the green and leadership concentrated in technology and growth. At the same time, long-end Treasurys caught a modest bid even as the 10-year yield holds a little above 4%, and precious metals extended their recent outperformance. Early corporate headlines are helping set the tone, including a tariff delay that is lifting home furnishings retailers and ongoing debate over whether mega-cap tech can sustain leadership into the new year.
At the opening bell, SPY last traded at 685.52, up about 0.53% versus its prior close of 681.92. QQQ outperformed, up roughly 0.93% at 620.04 against a previous close of 614.31, highlighting early strength in growth and tech. The Dow proxy DIA edged up 0.16% to 481.355 (previous close 480.57), while small caps via IWM gained about 0.58% to 247.58 from 246.16. The cross-cap picture suggests a modestly risk-on open with breadth skewing toward higher-beta segments.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields provide important context for this opening bid. The most recent snapshot shows the 10-year at 4.14%, the 5-year at 3.68%, the 2-year at 3.45%, and the 30-year at 4.81% (as of 2025-12-30). The curve is upward sloped between 2s and 10s, a configuration that can be supportive for financials’ net interest margins in principle and often aligns with investor preference for cyclicals. However, policy visibility remains clouded after recent minutes indicated a divided Federal Reserve. Bloomberg reported that the committee was split on the pace and necessity of additional rate cuts, even as the target range sits at 3.5%–3.75%. MarketWatch similarly noted the possibility that rates could be on hold “for some time,” underscoring a cautious near-term stance.
On inflation, the most recent CPI level available (November 2025) was 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068 (index levels). While those figures do not provide a year-over-year calculation, they frame a price environment that had been sticky through year end. Inflation expectations derived from model estimates point to a near-term 1-year expectation around 3.20%, drifting down toward approximately 2.34% at the 10-year horizon and about 2.44% at 30 years. This term structure suggests that, while the market anticipates some persistence in near-term price pressures, longer-run expectations remain anchored near the Fed’s target vicinity. That mix—near-term vigilance, longer-run anchor—helps explain the bid in precious metals alongside a still-supported long end of the Treasury curve.
Equities and sectors: tech leads, discretionary gets a tariff tailwind
Within sectors, early prints show technology leading. XLK last traded at 145.69 versus 143.97 previously, a gain of roughly 1.2%. Financials via XLF were marginally higher at 54.78 compared with 54.77 (about +0.02%). Health care, tracked by XLV, ticked up to 154.855 from 154.80 (+0.04%). Data for energy and utilities were limited and/or inconsistent beyond the specific utilities-like print visible, so we do not draw firm sector conclusions there.
The strength in XLK and QQQ aligns with ongoing investor focus on AI and software, although there is no shortage of debate about 2026 leadership. MarketWatch highlighted “overlooked indicators” suggesting tech may not lead in 2026, while another piece cited that 2025 was good for non-U.S. equities and mixed for crypto. Balancing those viewpoints, today’s open reflects investors’ willingness to add to tech exposure, at least tactically, as the calendar turns.
In consumer-related news, CNBC reported that RH and Wayfair shares rose in early trading after President Trump delayed an increase in furniture tariffs. That headline offers a discrete tailwind to home furnishings within consumer discretionary and may alleviate some cost pass-through concerns that had weighed on the category late last year. More broadly, several consumer-facing stories point to a mixed but resilient landscape: minimum wage increases in numerous states as of January could support incomes but also potentially feed cost pressures, while housing commentary suggests elevated prices and rates continuing into 2026 even as some markets see more negotiation room for buyers.
Auto and EVs remain in focus. MarketWatch noted that China’s BYD raised the bar on EV sales, potentially challenging Tesla’s global volume leadership, and a separate report flagged a pessimistic fourth-quarter sales outlook for Tesla. While we do not have real-time price action in TSLA in this payload, those headlines indicate sentiment headwinds for U.S. EV incumbents, which could factor into near-term positioning in the autos ecosystem.
Select company items also color today’s narrative. CNBC reported that Nike shares moved higher after sizeable insider purchases by its CEO, with Apple’s Tim Cook having done the same in his own company earlier. Insiders stepping in at perceived bottoms can reinforce investor confidence in valuation floors, particularly in consumer and mega-cap tech franchises. Meanwhile, MarketWatch highlighted Meta’s year-end acquisition activity as another example of mega-cap tech deploying capital to consolidate AI capabilities—a theme that continues to support software, semis, and cloud beneficiaries.
Fixed income: bonds bid alongside a still-anchored long-run inflation outlook
Treasury ETFs reflect a modest bid early in the session. TLT last traded at 87.40 versus 87.16 previously, up about 0.28%. Intermediate duration via IEF was at 96.289, up roughly 0.13% from 96.16. Front-end exposure through SHY ticked to 82.8601 from 82.82, a gain of about 0.05%. With the 10-year yield snapshot near 4.14% and long-run inflation expectations around 2.34%–2.44%, duration remains a tactical lever for portfolios balancing equity risk. The split Fed minutes and the possibility of a longer hold suggest the market will continue to parse incoming data—particularly labor and inflation prints—for confirmation on the path of travel.
Commodities: precious metals extend gains; oil and gas softer
Gold and silver added to recent strength at the open. GLD last traded at 401.66, up about 1.35% from 396.31. Silver via SLV gained roughly 4.5% to 67.31 from 64.42. The move aligns with year-end reporting that precious metals capped a historically strong 2025 despite late volatility; both Bloomberg and CNBC chronicled a sharp pullback followed by a swift rebound. Today’s follow-through suggests investors continue to seek hedges against near-term inflation uncertainty and macro policy risk.
Energy was softer. USO traded at 68.42 versus 69.16 previously, down about 1.1%. Natural gas via UNG fell about 3.2% to 11.865 from 12.26. The broad commodities basket proxy DBC last showed 22.36, unchanged from its previous close in the provided data. With EUR/USD modestly lower (see below) and China-related headlines describing a stabilization in manufacturing PMIs and a new consumer subsidy plan, commodity flows may be choppy as the market weighs demand signals against currency and policy dynamics.
FX and crypto: dollar firmer vs euro; crypto edges higher
EUR/USD marked around 1.1722, a touch below the session open of 1.1751 in the feed provided, indicating modest dollar firmness into the U.S. equity open. A slightly stronger dollar is typically a mild headwind for dollar-denominated commodities, but precious metals’ safe-haven and policy-hedge attributes appear to be dominating early today.
Crypto was firmer. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked near 88,813 versus an open of about 88,526, while Ether (ETHUSD) was around 3,034 versus an open near 3,008. MarketWatch recently observed that 2025 was “surprisingly bad” for crypto overall; early 2026 prints show tentative stabilization. Separate coverage highlighted that some corporates have stepped back from bitcoin as a treasury asset, a reminder that the institutional bid can ebb and flow with volatility and funding considerations.
Notable movers and themes from headlines
- Home furnishings: CNBC reported RH and Wayfair shares rose after a planned tariff increase on furniture was delayed. The policy reprieve alleviates a near-term input cost overhang and may support discretionary demand tied to housing and remodeling.
- Mega-cap and AI: MarketWatch highlighted late-year AI-related dealmaking at Meta, underlining persistent competitive spending that could benefit the broader AI supply chain. A separate story cautioned that “overlooked indicators” argue against tech leadership in 2026, a tension to watch given today’s XLK/QQQ-led start.
- EVs and autos: MarketWatch flagged BYD’s strong sales momentum and a more cautious Tesla sales outlook. The juxtaposition underscores competitive intensity and the potential for shifting share within global EV markets.
- Policy and the Fed: Bloomberg’s readout of the Fed minutes emphasized division over the cut path, while MarketWatch suggested rates could be on hold for some time. That uncertainty keeps duration strategies and inflation hedges in focus.
- Banks: MarketWatch suggested 2026 could be a banner year for regional banks if curve dynamics, regulation, and M&A align. With XLF slightly higher and the curve positively sloped between 2s and 10s in the latest snapshot, the setup merits monitoring, though evidence at today’s open is incremental rather than decisive.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Follow-through in breadth: Can gains broaden beyond tech-led QQQ and into small caps (IWM) and cyclicals through the session and week?
- Yields as the pivot: Watch the 10-year near 4.14% and the 2s–10s relationship. Sustained stability could support equity multiples; renewed volatility would likely swing leadership.
- Metals momentum: Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are extending strong trends. A hot start raises the bar for confirmation from inflation data and risk sentiment.
- Consumer discretionary dispersion: The tariff delay boosts home furnishings sentiment; monitor whether the bid spills into adjacent housing-related categories.
- EV headlines: Tesla’s sales commentary and BYD’s momentum could influence sector positioning as delivery and production updates emerge.
- Policy risk: MarketWatch flagged a renewed government funding deadline as Congress returns. Any shutdown brinkmanship would present headline and macro risk.
Key risks
- Policy uncertainty: Tariff changes and government funding deadlines could disrupt sentiment and consumer prices.
- Fed path ambiguity: Split minutes raise the risk of miscommunication or repricing if data surprise on inflation or growth.
- Inflation persistence: With 1-year expectations above 3%, any upside surprises could pressure real incomes and multiples.
- Market concentration: A tech-led tape can be vulnerable to factor reversals if leadership narrows further.
- Metals volatility: After outsized moves, precious metals are prone to sharp reversals on margin and positioning shifts.
- Crypto volatility: Corporate participation appears uneven; liquidity swings could amplify moves.
Bottom line
The first trading minutes of 2026 indicate a cautiously risk-on stance with tech and precious metals leading, bonds firm, and the dollar slightly stronger versus the euro. Policy signals—from tariffs to the Fed—remain pivotal. For now, investors are rewarding quality growth and inflation hedges while staying attentive to curve dynamics and macro surprises. The durability of this opening tone will likely hinge on incoming labor and inflation data, as well as clarity on policy timelines in Washington.
Equities opened 2026 on a constructive note, with major U.S. index ETFs in the green and leadership concentrated in technology and growth. At the same time, long-end Treasurys caught a modest bid even as the 10-year yield holds a little above 4%, and precious metals extended their recent outperformance. Early corporate headlines are helping set the tone, including a tariff delay that is lifting home furnishings retailers and ongoing debate over whether mega-cap tech can sustain leadership into the new year.
At the opening bell, SPY last traded at 685.52, up about 0.53% versus its prior close of 681.92. QQQ outperformed, up roughly 0.93% at 620.04 against a previous close of 614.31, highlighting early strength in growth and tech. The Dow proxy DIA edged up 0.16% to 481.355 (previous close 480.57), while small caps via IWM gained about 0.58% to 247.58 from 246.16. The cross-cap picture suggests a modestly risk-on open with breadth skewing toward higher-beta segments.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields provide important context for this opening bid. The most recent snapshot shows the 10-year at 4.14%, the 5-year at 3.68%, the 2-year at 3.45%, and the 30-year at 4.81% (as of 2025-12-30). The curve is upward sloped between 2s and 10s, a configuration that can be supportive for financials’ net interest margins in principle and often aligns with investor preference for cyclicals. However, policy visibility remains clouded after recent minutes indicated a divided Federal Reserve. Bloomberg reported that the committee was split on the pace and necessity of additional rate cuts, even as the target range sits at 3.5%–3.75%. MarketWatch similarly noted the possibility that rates could be on hold “for some time,” underscoring a cautious near-term stance.
On inflation, the most recent CPI level available (November 2025) was 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068 (index levels). While those figures do not provide a year-over-year calculation, they frame a price environment that had been sticky through year end. Inflation expectations derived from model estimates point to a near-term 1-year expectation around 3.20%, drifting down toward approximately 2.34% at the 10-year horizon and about 2.44% at 30 years. This term structure suggests that, while the market anticipates some persistence in near-term price pressures, longer-run expectations remain anchored near the Fed’s target vicinity. That mix—near-term vigilance, longer-run anchor—helps explain the bid in precious metals alongside a still-supported long end of the Treasury curve.
Equities and sectors: tech leads, discretionary gets a tariff tailwind
Within sectors, early prints show technology leading. XLK last traded at 145.69 versus 143.97 previously, a gain of roughly 1.2%. Financials via XLF were marginally higher at 54.78 compared with 54.77 (about +0.02%). Health care, tracked by XLV, ticked up to 154.855 from 154.80 (+0.04%). Data for energy and utilities were limited and/or inconsistent beyond the specific utilities-like print visible, so we do not draw firm sector conclusions there.
The strength in XLK and QQQ aligns with ongoing investor focus on AI and software, although there is no shortage of debate about 2026 leadership. MarketWatch highlighted “overlooked indicators” suggesting tech may not lead in 2026, while another piece cited that 2025 was good for non-U.S. equities and mixed for crypto. Balancing those viewpoints, today’s open reflects investors’ willingness to add to tech exposure, at least tactically, as the calendar turns.
In consumer-related news, CNBC reported that RH and Wayfair shares rose in early trading after President Trump delayed an increase in furniture tariffs. That headline offers a discrete tailwind to home furnishings within consumer discretionary and may alleviate some cost pass-through concerns that had weighed on the category late last year. More broadly, several consumer-facing stories point to a mixed but resilient landscape: minimum wage increases in numerous states as of January could support incomes but also potentially feed cost pressures, while housing commentary suggests elevated prices and rates continuing into 2026 even as some markets see more negotiation room for buyers.
Auto and EVs remain in focus. MarketWatch noted that China’s BYD raised the bar on EV sales, potentially challenging Tesla’s global volume leadership, and a separate report flagged a pessimistic fourth-quarter sales outlook for Tesla. While we do not have real-time price action in TSLA in this payload, those headlines indicate sentiment headwinds for U.S. EV incumbents, which could factor into near-term positioning in the autos ecosystem.
Select company items also color today’s narrative. CNBC reported that Nike shares moved higher after sizeable insider purchases by its CEO, with Apple’s Tim Cook having done the same in his own company earlier. Insiders stepping in at perceived bottoms can reinforce investor confidence in valuation floors, particularly in consumer and mega-cap tech franchises. Meanwhile, MarketWatch highlighted Meta’s year-end acquisition activity as another example of mega-cap tech deploying capital to consolidate AI capabilities—a theme that continues to support software, semis, and cloud beneficiaries.
Fixed income: bonds bid alongside a still-anchored long-run inflation outlook
Treasury ETFs reflect a modest bid early in the session. TLT last traded at 87.40 versus 87.16 previously, up about 0.28%. Intermediate duration via IEF was at 96.289, up roughly 0.13% from 96.16. Front-end exposure through SHY ticked to 82.8601 from 82.82, a gain of about 0.05%. With the 10-year yield snapshot near 4.14% and long-run inflation expectations around 2.34%–2.44%, duration remains a tactical lever for portfolios balancing equity risk. The split Fed minutes and the possibility of a longer hold suggest the market will continue to parse incoming data—particularly labor and inflation prints—for confirmation on the path of travel.
Commodities: precious metals extend gains; oil and gas softer
Gold and silver added to recent strength at the open. GLD last traded at 401.66, up about 1.35% from 396.31. Silver via SLV gained roughly 4.5% to 67.31 from 64.42. The move aligns with year-end reporting that precious metals capped a historically strong 2025 despite late volatility; both Bloomberg and CNBC chronicled a sharp pullback followed by a swift rebound. Today’s follow-through suggests investors continue to seek hedges against near-term inflation uncertainty and macro policy risk.
Energy was softer. USO traded at 68.42 versus 69.16 previously, down about 1.1%. Natural gas via UNG fell about 3.2% to 11.865 from 12.26. The broad commodities basket proxy DBC last showed 22.36, unchanged from its previous close in the provided data. With EUR/USD modestly lower (see below) and China-related headlines describing a stabilization in manufacturing PMIs and a new consumer subsidy plan, commodity flows may be choppy as the market weighs demand signals against currency and policy dynamics.
FX and crypto: dollar firmer vs euro; crypto edges higher
EUR/USD marked around 1.1722, a touch below the session open of 1.1751 in the feed provided, indicating modest dollar firmness into the U.S. equity open. A slightly stronger dollar is typically a mild headwind for dollar-denominated commodities, but precious metals’ safe-haven and policy-hedge attributes appear to be dominating early today.
Crypto was firmer. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked near 88,813 versus an open of about 88,526, while Ether (ETHUSD) was around 3,034 versus an open near 3,008. MarketWatch recently observed that 2025 was “surprisingly bad” for crypto overall; early 2026 prints show tentative stabilization. Separate coverage highlighted that some corporates have stepped back from bitcoin as a treasury asset, a reminder that the institutional bid can ebb and flow with volatility and funding considerations.
Notable movers and themes from headlines
- Home furnishings: CNBC reported RH and Wayfair shares rose after a planned tariff increase on furniture was delayed. The policy reprieve alleviates a near-term input cost overhang and may support discretionary demand tied to housing and remodeling.
- Mega-cap and AI: MarketWatch highlighted late-year AI-related dealmaking at Meta, underlining persistent competitive spending that could benefit the broader AI supply chain. A separate story cautioned that “overlooked indicators” argue against tech leadership in 2026, a tension to watch given today’s XLK/QQQ-led start.
- EVs and autos: MarketWatch flagged BYD’s strong sales momentum and a more cautious Tesla sales outlook. The juxtaposition underscores competitive intensity and the potential for shifting share within global EV markets.
- Policy and the Fed: Bloomberg’s readout of the Fed minutes emphasized division over the cut path, while MarketWatch suggested rates could be on hold for some time. That uncertainty keeps duration strategies and inflation hedges in focus.
- Banks: MarketWatch suggested 2026 could be a banner year for regional banks if curve dynamics, regulation, and M&A align. With XLF slightly higher and the curve positively sloped between 2s and 10s in the latest snapshot, the setup merits monitoring, though evidence at today’s open is incremental rather than decisive.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Follow-through in breadth: Can gains broaden beyond tech-led QQQ and into small caps (IWM) and cyclicals through the session and week?
- Yields as the pivot: Watch the 10-year near 4.14% and the 2s–10s relationship. Sustained stability could support equity multiples; renewed volatility would likely swing leadership.
- Metals momentum: Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) are extending strong trends. A hot start raises the bar for confirmation from inflation data and risk sentiment.
- Consumer discretionary dispersion: The tariff delay boosts home furnishings sentiment; monitor whether the bid spills into adjacent housing-related categories.
- EV headlines: Tesla’s sales commentary and BYD’s momentum could influence sector positioning as delivery and production updates emerge.
- Policy risk: MarketWatch flagged a renewed government funding deadline as Congress returns. Any shutdown brinkmanship would present headline and macro risk.
Key risks
- Policy uncertainty: Tariff changes and government funding deadlines could disrupt sentiment and consumer prices.
- Fed path ambiguity: Split minutes raise the risk of miscommunication or repricing if data surprise on inflation or growth.
- Inflation persistence: With 1-year expectations above 3%, any upside surprises could pressure real incomes and multiples.
- Market concentration: A tech-led tape can be vulnerable to factor reversals if leadership narrows further.
- Metals volatility: After outsized moves, precious metals are prone to sharp reversals on margin and positioning shifts.
- Crypto volatility: Corporate participation appears uneven; liquidity swings could amplify moves.
Bottom line
The first trading minutes of 2026 indicate a cautiously risk-on stance with tech and precious metals leading, bonds firm, and the dollar slightly stronger versus the euro. Policy signals—from tariffs to the Fed—remain pivotal. For now, investors are rewarding quality growth and inflation hedges while staying attentive to curve dynamics and macro surprises. The durability of this opening tone will likely hinge on incoming labor and inflation data, as well as clarity on policy timelines in Washington.