State of Market: Close 12/01/25
Stocks slip to start December as yields firm; tech shows relative strength while precious metals advance
Rising long-duration Treasury yields and crosscurrents from global central banks pressured broader equities. Tech edged higher, defensive sectors lagged, and gold and silver extended gains. Crypto remained volatile ahead of a closely watched technical window.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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U.S. equities finished lower on Monday, the first trading day of December, with most major benchmarks slipping as long-duration Treasury yields held near the 4% mark and crosscurrents from global central banks weighed on sentiment. While the day skewed risk-off for the broader tape, technology shares displayed relative resilience, and precious metals advanced alongside a firmer euro and mixed crypto markets.
At the close, SPY settled at 680.27, down 3.12 from Friday’s 683.39 reference. The QQQ benchmark ended at 617.20, lower by 2.05 from 619.25. Blue chips underperformed, with DIA at 473.35, down 3.83 from 477.18, and small caps likewise softened, as IWM closed at 245.64, off 3.11 from 248.75. The tape reflected a cautious tone into month-end positioning shifts and a reassessment of rate dynamics at home and abroad.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields framed the session’s risk appetite. The 10-year finished at 4.00% in the latest available reading, while the 30-year sat higher at 4.64%. The front of the curve remained lower: the 2-year was 3.45% and the 5-year 3.56%, leaving a modest positive slope from 2s to 10s. Price action in duration was consistent with the ETF moves: long and intermediate bond proxies declined on the day (TLT 88.77 vs 90.21 on Friday; IEF 96.69 vs 97.50), pointing to modest upward pressure on yields.
Inflation data are most recently available for September: headline CPI stands at 324.368 on the index level, with core CPI at 330.542. While these are index levels rather than growth rates, market-based inflation expectations remain anchored near the low-2s. The market-implied 5-year breakeven is 2.36% and the 10-year is 2.31%, with a 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A model-based one-year expectation sits higher at 2.745%, reflecting some near-term stickiness relative to longer-term anchors. This backdrop—anchored medium-term expectations with still-firm near-term inflation—helps explain why the long end of the curve is sensitive to global policy signals and why equity multiples may be toggling to rates day by day.
One prominent global driver today came from Japan. As MarketWatch highlighted, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Ueda signaled the prospect of a rate hike this month, an incremental hawkish cue that rattled global bond markets by raising the possibility that Japanese investors could repatriate capital at the margin. A stronger yen and rising JGB yields can reduce the relative appeal of higher-yielding foreign bonds and potentially pull some flows from U.S. Treasurys and equities. The associated push higher in global term premiums aligns with the declines across TLT and IEF.
Economic data and policy narrative
Manufacturing remained a soft spot per a separate MarketWatch report noting the ISM’s finding that U.S. manufacturers contracted for a ninth month, citing tariffs as a factor hurting sales and constraining hiring. While the article points to persistent headwinds in goods-producing sectors, the broader demand picture around the consumer is less uniform. CNBC reported a strong holiday shopping kickoff, challenging the “weak consumer” narrative and pointing to better footing for retailers into December. The juxtaposition—soft manufacturing versus still-resilient consumption—continues to define the late-year macro mix.
Policy remains a swing factor into 2026 as well. MarketWatch flagged that prediction markets see Kevin Hassett as a leading contender for the next Fed chair, according to that article. While personnel choices are inherently political, the pathway for monetary policy and the signaling effect from future leadership can influence risk premiums, especially in the rates-sensitive segments of the market.
Equities: broad softness, tech resilience
The day’s index-level declines masked notable dispersion. Technology shares edged higher at the sector proxy level: XLK closed at 286.51, up 0.29 from 286.22 on Friday, showing relative strength versus broader benchmarks. Financials eased, with XLF at 52.89, down 0.44. Health care lagged, as XLV settled at 155.32, down 2.33, a move that coincided with a MarketWatch report of vaccine stocks trading lower on headlines around safety concerns from an FDA official’s comments. Energy appeared softer as well: the “XLE” line item in the provided sector data shows a last trade of 88.54 versus a previous close of 90.63. Note that this entry’s symbol label reads XLU in the payload despite being under the XLE key—an inconsistency worth noting—but the prices imply sector-level underperformance for Energy in today’s tape.
Beneath the surface, AI and semiconductor narratives remained active. MarketWatch highlighted that Nvidia’s valuation is described as “almost historically cheap” by one major bank, with scope for multiple expansion if growth persists. Another MarketWatch piece noted that Alphabet and Nvidia together account for a large share of the S&P 500’s 2025 gains, underscoring concentration risk even as AI leaders continue to draw incremental capital. Meanwhile, MarketWatch reported Nvidia’s $2 billion investment in Synopsys alongside a new partnership—another datapoint on the depth of the AI toolchain. That said, dispersion within software remained evident: CNBC noted that Workday shares fell after the company trimmed subscription revenue guidance, a reminder that even within tech, fundamentals are being differentiated stock by stock.
Consumer and media angles offered counterweights. CNBC’s piece on robust holiday shopping momentum aids the case for steadier discretionary demand into year-end, while MarketWatch and CNBC also pointed out a strong Thanksgiving weekend at the box office, with Disney’s “Zootopia 2” posting a record animated opening and contributing to one of the top five Thanksgiving box office hauls. These developments are not directly captured in the broad ETFs cited above but complement the narrative of selective consumer strength.
Bonds: duration under pressure as yields firm
Bond ETFs fell across the curve. TLT (long duration) ended at 88.77 versus 90.21 on Friday; IEF (intermediate) finished at 96.69 versus 97.50; and SHY (1–3 year) ticked down to 82.77 from 83.08. The magnitude of the move was more pronounced at the long end, consistent with the 30-year yield sitting at 4.64% and the 10-year at 4.00%. The day’s declines line up with the combination of domestic inflation expectations that remain anchored but not collapsing and an incremental global tightening impulse from the BoJ headlines.
Commodities: precious metals lead; oil steady; nat gas firmer
Precious metals advanced. GLD ended at 389.75 versus 387.88 on Friday, while SLV closed at 52.55 versus 51.21. With longer real yields not dramatically rising (given anchored breakevens) and the dollar mixed-to-softer against the euro, gold and silver found support. Broad commodities, as tracked by DBC, edged higher to 23.12 versus 23.06. Crude proxies were little changed: USO closed near flat at 71.09 versus 71.07, despite Bloomberg’s reporting that OPEC+ will pause planned supply increases for three months amid surplus concerns. The cartel’s stance may be tempering downside in crude while the market waits for clearer evidence on demand into early 2026. Natural gas strengthened, with UNG at 15.22 versus 14.73, a constructive shift amid seasonally sensitive weather dynamics (specific demand data were not provided).
FX and crypto: euro firms; crypto churns in a wide range
The euro firmed against the dollar on the day. EURUSD’s mark of 1.1606 sat above its session open of 1.1590, with a tight range in the provided print. A slightly softer dollar versus the euro can be consistent with the day’s bid for precious metals.
Crypto remained volatile. BTCUSD’s mark was 85,614 with an intraday range of roughly 83,790 to 86,962, slightly below its session open of 85,813. ETHUSD marked near 2,759, below its open of 2,823, with a range from about 2,717 to 2,854. MarketWatch carried contrasting crypto headlines: one technical analyst suggested a potential short-term reversal as soon as Tuesday, while another piece highlighted renewed downside pressures and the possibility that the largest corporate holder could be forced to sell if conditions deteriorate. A separate MarketWatch item noted bitcoin’s push back above 90,000 earlier, underscoring how quickly momentum has been shifting in recent sessions. With such crosscurrents, near-term crypto direction remains data- and flow-dependent.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- Nvidia, Alphabet, and concentration dynamics: MarketWatch emphasized that Alphabet and Nvidia together represent a significant share of S&P 500 gains this year, underscoring concentration risk even as a BofA-cited view argues Nvidia’s valuation could expand from here. This backdrop helps explain tech’s relative bid (XLK up on the day) despite broader weakness.
- Synopsys and Nvidia partnership: MarketWatch reported a $2 billion Nvidia investment in Synopsys, highlighting continued investment into the AI design ecosystem.
- Workday guidance reset: CNBC noted Workday’s shares fell on subscription revenue guidance concerns, consistent with the dispersion observed within software and broader tech.
- Vaccine headlines: MarketWatch flagged pressure in vaccine stocks after a safety-related memo discussion; health care (XLV) lagged on the day, consistent with sector headwinds.
- Energy policy and supply: Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ plans to pause supply increases for three months amid surplus concerns, aligning with steady crude proxies and a modestly lower energy-equity read-through in our sector data entry.
- Central-bank watch: MarketWatch’s coverage of the BoJ’s potential hike introduced a global rates variable that helped set the tone for duration and equity risk premia.
Outlook
Into the balance of the week, investors will be focused on whether the modest firming in yields persists and how that interacts with equity leadership. With inflation expectations anchored and policy headlines active, the next leg in rates could dictate factor performance—growth versus value and duration sensitivity in particular. Retail and holiday updates remain another key input: CNBC’s report of a strong kickoff challenges the weak-consumer narrative and may support discretionary names; MarketWatch also noted that a softer Cyber Monday session for retail stocks has sometimes preceded year-end gains in the group, a seasonal nuance to watch.
Crypto markets are facing a near-term technical inflection per MarketWatch coverage; any reversal higher or, alternatively, a break of recent lows could feed back into broader risk sentiment. Energy will trade headlines from OPEC+ and inventories, while precious metals may continue to key off real-rate signals and the dollar. Finally, leadership concentration remains a two-edged sword: it can support index-level resilience if mega-cap tech holds up, but it also raises fragility if leadership stumbles. As MarketWatch highlighted, a large share of year-to-date S&P 500 gains has been driven by a handful of AI beneficiaries, and dispersion within software (e.g., Workday) underlines ongoing selectivity.
Bottom line
Today’s risk-off skew was consistent with firmer long-end yields and global policy uncertainty. Yet the day also showcased resilience where investors perceive durable cash-flow visibility—namely in parts of big-cap tech—and ongoing demand for hedges such as gold and silver. With inflation expectations stable in the low-2% range and the policy debate evolving, the market remains finely balanced between rate sensitivity and earnings durability. Watch for follow-through in yields, incremental consumer data, and any surprises from global central banks to set the tone as December gets underway.
U.S. equities finished lower on Monday, the first trading day of December, with most major benchmarks slipping as long-duration Treasury yields held near the 4% mark and crosscurrents from global central banks weighed on sentiment. While the day skewed risk-off for the broader tape, technology shares displayed relative resilience, and precious metals advanced alongside a firmer euro and mixed crypto markets.
At the close, SPY settled at 680.27, down 3.12 from Friday’s 683.39 reference. The QQQ benchmark ended at 617.20, lower by 2.05 from 619.25. Blue chips underperformed, with DIA at 473.35, down 3.83 from 477.18, and small caps likewise softened, as IWM closed at 245.64, off 3.11 from 248.75. The tape reflected a cautious tone into month-end positioning shifts and a reassessment of rate dynamics at home and abroad.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields framed the session’s risk appetite. The 10-year finished at 4.00% in the latest available reading, while the 30-year sat higher at 4.64%. The front of the curve remained lower: the 2-year was 3.45% and the 5-year 3.56%, leaving a modest positive slope from 2s to 10s. Price action in duration was consistent with the ETF moves: long and intermediate bond proxies declined on the day (TLT 88.77 vs 90.21 on Friday; IEF 96.69 vs 97.50), pointing to modest upward pressure on yields.
Inflation data are most recently available for September: headline CPI stands at 324.368 on the index level, with core CPI at 330.542. While these are index levels rather than growth rates, market-based inflation expectations remain anchored near the low-2s. The market-implied 5-year breakeven is 2.36% and the 10-year is 2.31%, with a 5y5y forward at 2.25%. A model-based one-year expectation sits higher at 2.745%, reflecting some near-term stickiness relative to longer-term anchors. This backdrop—anchored medium-term expectations with still-firm near-term inflation—helps explain why the long end of the curve is sensitive to global policy signals and why equity multiples may be toggling to rates day by day.
One prominent global driver today came from Japan. As MarketWatch highlighted, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Ueda signaled the prospect of a rate hike this month, an incremental hawkish cue that rattled global bond markets by raising the possibility that Japanese investors could repatriate capital at the margin. A stronger yen and rising JGB yields can reduce the relative appeal of higher-yielding foreign bonds and potentially pull some flows from U.S. Treasurys and equities. The associated push higher in global term premiums aligns with the declines across TLT and IEF.
Economic data and policy narrative
Manufacturing remained a soft spot per a separate MarketWatch report noting the ISM’s finding that U.S. manufacturers contracted for a ninth month, citing tariffs as a factor hurting sales and constraining hiring. While the article points to persistent headwinds in goods-producing sectors, the broader demand picture around the consumer is less uniform. CNBC reported a strong holiday shopping kickoff, challenging the “weak consumer” narrative and pointing to better footing for retailers into December. The juxtaposition—soft manufacturing versus still-resilient consumption—continues to define the late-year macro mix.
Policy remains a swing factor into 2026 as well. MarketWatch flagged that prediction markets see Kevin Hassett as a leading contender for the next Fed chair, according to that article. While personnel choices are inherently political, the pathway for monetary policy and the signaling effect from future leadership can influence risk premiums, especially in the rates-sensitive segments of the market.
Equities: broad softness, tech resilience
The day’s index-level declines masked notable dispersion. Technology shares edged higher at the sector proxy level: XLK closed at 286.51, up 0.29 from 286.22 on Friday, showing relative strength versus broader benchmarks. Financials eased, with XLF at 52.89, down 0.44. Health care lagged, as XLV settled at 155.32, down 2.33, a move that coincided with a MarketWatch report of vaccine stocks trading lower on headlines around safety concerns from an FDA official’s comments. Energy appeared softer as well: the “XLE” line item in the provided sector data shows a last trade of 88.54 versus a previous close of 90.63. Note that this entry’s symbol label reads XLU in the payload despite being under the XLE key—an inconsistency worth noting—but the prices imply sector-level underperformance for Energy in today’s tape.
Beneath the surface, AI and semiconductor narratives remained active. MarketWatch highlighted that Nvidia’s valuation is described as “almost historically cheap” by one major bank, with scope for multiple expansion if growth persists. Another MarketWatch piece noted that Alphabet and Nvidia together account for a large share of the S&P 500’s 2025 gains, underscoring concentration risk even as AI leaders continue to draw incremental capital. Meanwhile, MarketWatch reported Nvidia’s $2 billion investment in Synopsys alongside a new partnership—another datapoint on the depth of the AI toolchain. That said, dispersion within software remained evident: CNBC noted that Workday shares fell after the company trimmed subscription revenue guidance, a reminder that even within tech, fundamentals are being differentiated stock by stock.
Consumer and media angles offered counterweights. CNBC’s piece on robust holiday shopping momentum aids the case for steadier discretionary demand into year-end, while MarketWatch and CNBC also pointed out a strong Thanksgiving weekend at the box office, with Disney’s “Zootopia 2” posting a record animated opening and contributing to one of the top five Thanksgiving box office hauls. These developments are not directly captured in the broad ETFs cited above but complement the narrative of selective consumer strength.
Bonds: duration under pressure as yields firm
Bond ETFs fell across the curve. TLT (long duration) ended at 88.77 versus 90.21 on Friday; IEF (intermediate) finished at 96.69 versus 97.50; and SHY (1–3 year) ticked down to 82.77 from 83.08. The magnitude of the move was more pronounced at the long end, consistent with the 30-year yield sitting at 4.64% and the 10-year at 4.00%. The day’s declines line up with the combination of domestic inflation expectations that remain anchored but not collapsing and an incremental global tightening impulse from the BoJ headlines.
Commodities: precious metals lead; oil steady; nat gas firmer
Precious metals advanced. GLD ended at 389.75 versus 387.88 on Friday, while SLV closed at 52.55 versus 51.21. With longer real yields not dramatically rising (given anchored breakevens) and the dollar mixed-to-softer against the euro, gold and silver found support. Broad commodities, as tracked by DBC, edged higher to 23.12 versus 23.06. Crude proxies were little changed: USO closed near flat at 71.09 versus 71.07, despite Bloomberg’s reporting that OPEC+ will pause planned supply increases for three months amid surplus concerns. The cartel’s stance may be tempering downside in crude while the market waits for clearer evidence on demand into early 2026. Natural gas strengthened, with UNG at 15.22 versus 14.73, a constructive shift amid seasonally sensitive weather dynamics (specific demand data were not provided).
FX and crypto: euro firms; crypto churns in a wide range
The euro firmed against the dollar on the day. EURUSD’s mark of 1.1606 sat above its session open of 1.1590, with a tight range in the provided print. A slightly softer dollar versus the euro can be consistent with the day’s bid for precious metals.
Crypto remained volatile. BTCUSD’s mark was 85,614 with an intraday range of roughly 83,790 to 86,962, slightly below its session open of 85,813. ETHUSD marked near 2,759, below its open of 2,823, with a range from about 2,717 to 2,854. MarketWatch carried contrasting crypto headlines: one technical analyst suggested a potential short-term reversal as soon as Tuesday, while another piece highlighted renewed downside pressures and the possibility that the largest corporate holder could be forced to sell if conditions deteriorate. A separate MarketWatch item noted bitcoin’s push back above 90,000 earlier, underscoring how quickly momentum has been shifting in recent sessions. With such crosscurrents, near-term crypto direction remains data- and flow-dependent.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- Nvidia, Alphabet, and concentration dynamics: MarketWatch emphasized that Alphabet and Nvidia together represent a significant share of S&P 500 gains this year, underscoring concentration risk even as a BofA-cited view argues Nvidia’s valuation could expand from here. This backdrop helps explain tech’s relative bid (XLK up on the day) despite broader weakness.
- Synopsys and Nvidia partnership: MarketWatch reported a $2 billion Nvidia investment in Synopsys, highlighting continued investment into the AI design ecosystem.
- Workday guidance reset: CNBC noted Workday’s shares fell on subscription revenue guidance concerns, consistent with the dispersion observed within software and broader tech.
- Vaccine headlines: MarketWatch flagged pressure in vaccine stocks after a safety-related memo discussion; health care (XLV) lagged on the day, consistent with sector headwinds.
- Energy policy and supply: Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ plans to pause supply increases for three months amid surplus concerns, aligning with steady crude proxies and a modestly lower energy-equity read-through in our sector data entry.
- Central-bank watch: MarketWatch’s coverage of the BoJ’s potential hike introduced a global rates variable that helped set the tone for duration and equity risk premia.
Outlook
Into the balance of the week, investors will be focused on whether the modest firming in yields persists and how that interacts with equity leadership. With inflation expectations anchored and policy headlines active, the next leg in rates could dictate factor performance—growth versus value and duration sensitivity in particular. Retail and holiday updates remain another key input: CNBC’s report of a strong kickoff challenges the weak-consumer narrative and may support discretionary names; MarketWatch also noted that a softer Cyber Monday session for retail stocks has sometimes preceded year-end gains in the group, a seasonal nuance to watch.
Crypto markets are facing a near-term technical inflection per MarketWatch coverage; any reversal higher or, alternatively, a break of recent lows could feed back into broader risk sentiment. Energy will trade headlines from OPEC+ and inventories, while precious metals may continue to key off real-rate signals and the dollar. Finally, leadership concentration remains a two-edged sword: it can support index-level resilience if mega-cap tech holds up, but it also raises fragility if leadership stumbles. As MarketWatch highlighted, a large share of year-to-date S&P 500 gains has been driven by a handful of AI beneficiaries, and dispersion within software (e.g., Workday) underlines ongoing selectivity.
Bottom line
Today’s risk-off skew was consistent with firmer long-end yields and global policy uncertainty. Yet the day also showcased resilience where investors perceive durable cash-flow visibility—namely in parts of big-cap tech—and ongoing demand for hedges such as gold and silver. With inflation expectations stable in the low-2% range and the policy debate evolving, the market remains finely balanced between rate sensitivity and earnings durability. Watch for follow-through in yields, incremental consumer data, and any surprises from global central banks to set the tone as December gets underway.