State of Market: Open 12/04/25
Stocks open slightly higher as claims hit 3-year low; yields steady, mega-cap tech and media headlines in focus
SPY and QQQ edge up while small caps lag; long-end Treasury yields remain elevated versus the 2-year; silver and natural gas ease, Bitcoin consolidates near recent highs; media M&A chatter and AI-linked earnings remain catalysts.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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U.S. equities opened on a cautious but constructive footing Thursday, with the largest index ETFs inching higher as investors weighed fresh labor-market data, a still-steep longer end of the Treasury curve, and an active slate of corporate headlines in technology and media. The tone follows a prior session that, according to MarketWatch, saw major indexes finish near record territory as investors leaned into the "bright side" of soft private-sector hiring. This morning’s initial jobless claims added a contrasting datapoint, falling to a three-year low around the Thanksgiving period—what MarketWatch described as a “no-hire, no-fire” environment where companies are avoiding layoffs even as hiring slows. That mix keeps growth hopes alive while leaving the interest-rate debate finely balanced.
At the open, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) traded at 685.11 versus a previous close of 683.89, up about 0.18%. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) printed 624.60 against 623.52 yesterday, up roughly 0.17%. The Dow proxy (DIA) was modestly firmer, 479.98 versus 479.41 (+0.12%). Small caps lagged: the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) opened at 249.09 versus 249.63, down about 0.22%. The early profile—large-cap strength and small-cap softness—fits an environment where longer-dated yields remain meaningfully above the 2-year, supporting quality growth but limiting a more cyclical breadth surge.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The Treasury curve continues to show a trough around the 2-year, with the 2-year at 3.51%, the 5-year 3.66%, the 10-year 4.09%, and the 30-year 4.74% (as of 2025-12-02). Very short bills are still comparatively elevated (1-month at 3.90%, 3-month at 3.77%), leaving the front-end firm and the long end higher still, creating a belly-led structure rather than a traditional front/long inversion. Practically, that points to an economy that has cooled from the post-pandemic extremes but still faces term-premia and duration risk on the long end. A long-end yield near 4.1%–4.7% remains a critical valuation input for equities, especially longer-duration assets in technology and communication services.
Inflation data in the payload are through September, with the CPI level at 324.37 and core CPI at 330.54 (indexes). Market-derived inflation expectations as of November show 5-year breakevens at 2.35%, 10-year at 2.27%, and the 5-year/5-year forward at 2.18%. The term structure of expectations remains well anchored near the 2%–2.3% zone, consistent with cooling inflation pressures referenced in services-sector survey commentary. The ISM services report summarized by MarketWatch noted continued expansion in November and easing inflationary pressures, with “tariff uncertainty” cited as a drag on hiring and investment. That nuance matters for cyclicals and for consumer-sensitive segments heading into year-end.
Equities and sectors: a measured bid for mega-cap growth, defensives mixed
Early equity price action reflects the macro contours. SPY and QQQ are both marginally higher. DIA is up modestly, while IWM is lower, suggesting risk appetite remains selective. Among sectors, the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) is up to 290.32 from 289.99 (+0.11%), supported by ongoing AI and cloud narratives in the news flow. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is also slightly firmer at 53.585 versus 53.55 (+0.07%), consistent with the prior day’s strength highlighted by CNBC. Defensives are mixed: Health Care (XLV) is down to 154.92 from 155.08 (-0.10%). Energy (XLE) is softer at 87.33 from 87.60 (-0.31%).
Media and AI remain front-page catalysts. On media consolidation, CNBC reported that bids for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) are in, and MarketWatch said Netflix (NFLX) and Paramount (PARA) have emerged as perceived favorites in the latest round—though investors didn’t like it, with both suitors’ shares down over 5% as details of cash bids emerged. Deal dynamics, balance-sheet capacity, and strategic fit will be front of mind as any path forward takes shape.
In AI and software, multiple pieces underscore a complex setup. MarketWatch noted that Salesforce (CRM) highlighted a “powerful pipeline of future revenue” and AI momentum. Snowflake’s (SNOW) earnings beat, however, wasn’t enough to lift the stock as product revenue growth decelerated, illustrating a higher bar for the data/AI cohort after strong year-to-date performance. Marvell Technology (MRVL) announced it will acquire Celestial AI for up to $5.5 billion (CNBC) in a bid to bolster its networking and AI positioning, a move that complements commentary elsewhere about data center power and capacity bottlenecks. Microsoft (MSFT) faced a negative headline around reported AI sales pressures, though one analyst framed any weakness as an opportunity (MarketWatch), and CNBC highlighted the company “setting the record straight” on related concerns the prior day. CrowdStrike (CRWD) emphasized its growing relationship with Amazon Web Services (AWS), per CNBC, reinforcing the theme that cloud and cybersecurity demand remain intertwined with AI adoption.
Industrials and transport also have actionable updates. Boeing (BA) was a positive outlier Wednesday after its CFO said deliveries for key programs should be higher next year (CNBC; MarketWatch), feeding hopes for operating momentum into 2026. Delta (DAL) trimmed its fourth-quarter profit outlook due to a government shutdown impact of roughly $200 million (CNBC), but MarketWatch reported that Wall Street seemed relieved given healthy demand in the December quarter. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) rallied Wednesday on sustained hopes for Cobenfy in Alzheimer’s despite a delayed late-stage trial readout (MarketWatch).
Policy and regulation remain in the foreground. MarketWatch reported that the European Commission accused Meta Platforms (META) of violating antitrust rules—yet another reminder that mega-cap platforms face persistent regulatory overhangs, particularly in Europe. Separately, tariffs and trade continue to shape corporate planning, with the services ISM citing “tariff uncertainty” and MarketWatch noting a looming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs where contingency plans are being considered to maintain levies.
Bonds: duration softens at the open as the curve stays long-end heavy
Treasury ETFs were a touch lower into the open. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) traded 88.92 versus 89.06 yesterday (-0.16%), while the 7–10 year proxy (IEF) was 96.825 versus 96.97 (-0.15%). The 1–3 year SHY edged down to 82.84 from 82.86 (-0.02%). With the 10-year at 4.09% and the 30-year at 4.74% (12/02), long-duration price sensitivity remains elevated; today’s slight bond weakness is consistent with incremental risk-on in mega-cap tech and the strong initial jobless claims print that reduces near-term recession anxiety.
Commodities: precious metals ease; energy mixed, with oil steady and gas softer
Gold (GLD) is marginally lower at 386.59 versus 386.88 (-0.08%), and silver (SLV) is more notably lower at 52.22 versus 53.07 (-1.6%). That pullback comes after Bloomberg reported silver hitting a record high this week on tight supply and rate-cut hopes—today’s giveback looks like consolidation rather than a trend break. Oil and broad commodities were little changed on last prints: USO sits at 70.66, unchanged versus yesterday’s close on the most recent trade, and the diversified commodities fund DBC is similarly flat at 23.13 on last trade. MarketWatch noted that OPEC+ has been adding supply faster than expected this year, pressuring crude amid a global glut; that remains a headwind unless demand reaccelerates or supply discipline tightens. Natural gas (UNG) is lower at 15.29 versus 15.47 (-1.16%).
FX and crypto: euro edges up, crypto cools after a two-week high
In foreign exchange, EURUSD marks around 1.1669, slightly higher than its open print in the feed, reflecting a modest bid against the dollar. On digital assets, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) sits near 92,734, down about 0.7% versus its open in this feed, and Ethereum (ETHUSD) is near 3,184, down roughly 0.3%. Bloomberg reported Bitcoin rose to a two-week high at $93,900 this week even as broader crypto sentiment remained fragile; a MarketWatch piece cited a JPMorgan strategist who framed a scenario where Bitcoin could trade as high as $170,000 if valued like gold. Those commentaries underscore the ongoing narrative tug of war between macro liquidity, institutional adoption, and risk-management discipline after a sharp multi-year recovery.
Notable company and sector stories from the tape
- Media consolidation: CNBC said bids for WBD are in, while MarketWatch noted Netflix and Paramount as perceived favorites, though investors balked at the cash implications. The competitive dynamics and balance-sheet considerations for each suitor will influence sector multiples.
- AI and software: Salesforce emphasized AI-driven pipeline momentum (MarketWatch), Snowflake’s decelerating product growth tempered enthusiasm despite an earnings beat (MarketWatch), and Marvell agreed to buy Celestial AI (CNBC), highlighting the urgency to secure data movement and interconnect technologies for AI workloads. CrowdStrike pointed to AWS partnership benefits (CNBC), reinforcing a security-plus-cloud flywheel.
- Mega-cap platform risk: The European Commission’s antitrust accusations against Meta (MarketWatch) add to a consistent EU regulatory drumbeat around data and market power.
- Industrials and transport: Boeing’s improved 2026 delivery expectations (CNBC; MarketWatch) supported a turnaround narrative. Delta’s update (CNBC; MarketWatch) balanced a discrete Q4 hit with healthy underlying demand trends.
- Consumer value: Discount retail remains resilient. MarketWatch highlighted Dollar Tree’s sales beat and Dollar General’s traffic gains with shares rallying, suggesting ongoing trade-down behavior and value-seeking by consumers.
Outlook: what to watch next
- The Fed policy debate: MarketWatch reported investors used soft ADP data to bolster expectations for a quarter-point cut next week. Today’s three-year-low jobless claims complicate the picture, reinforcing the need to monitor incoming labor data revisions and the Fed’s communication around growth risks versus inflation progress.
- Yields and the curve: With the 10-year near 4.1% and the 30-year near 4.7%, equity multiples are sensitive to any long-end repricing. Watch auction results, term premium shifts, and any balance-sheet commentary from policymakers if short-term funding conditions tighten (as flagged by MarketWatch in a separate note).
- AI and cloud capex: Company-specific updates (AWS chip strategy, Microsoft sales pacing, and semiconductor interconnect M&A) continue to shape leadership in XLK and QQQ. Execution versus elevated expectations will be the swing factor into year-end.
- Media M&A: Any concrete developments around WBD, NFLX, PARA, and potential partners could move the group and influence broader sentiment toward leveraged “old media.”
- Commodities: Silver’s recent strength and today’s pullback, alongside OPEC+ supply behavior, remain key to inflation narratives and cyclical equities.
Key risks
- Policy and regulation: EU antitrust scrutiny of major platforms and potential U.S. tariff policy uncertainty could dent risk appetite or sector-specific multiples.
- Funding markets: MarketWatch cited potential strains in short-term funding markets; if plumbing issues intensify, the Fed may have to step in, creating cross-asset volatility.
- Growth versus inflation trade-off: A “no-hire, no-fire” labor backdrop can slow disinflation if wage growth outpaces productivity, keeping the long end of the curve elevated and pressuring duration-sensitive equities.
- Execution risk in AI: High expectations across software, semis, and cloud make earnings guides and uptake rates critical; any pauses could trigger deratings after strong runs.
- Energy supply overhang: OPEC+’s contribution to a supply glut (per MarketWatch) could keep oil range-bound, undercutting energy equities and capex plans unless demand improves.
Bottom line
The market opened with a mild pro-risk tilt in mega-cap growth while small caps lagged. The curve remains long-end heavy relative to the 2-year, and inflation expectations are anchored. Sector moves are incremental, consistent with an information-rich but directionally mixed backdrop. Corporate catalysts in AI, media, and industrials, together with evolving labor data and policy headlines, should set the tone into the next Fed decision and year-end positioning.
U.S. equities opened on a cautious but constructive footing Thursday, with the largest index ETFs inching higher as investors weighed fresh labor-market data, a still-steep longer end of the Treasury curve, and an active slate of corporate headlines in technology and media. The tone follows a prior session that, according to MarketWatch, saw major indexes finish near record territory as investors leaned into the "bright side" of soft private-sector hiring. This morning’s initial jobless claims added a contrasting datapoint, falling to a three-year low around the Thanksgiving period—what MarketWatch described as a “no-hire, no-fire” environment where companies are avoiding layoffs even as hiring slows. That mix keeps growth hopes alive while leaving the interest-rate debate finely balanced.
At the open, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) traded at 685.11 versus a previous close of 683.89, up about 0.18%. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) printed 624.60 against 623.52 yesterday, up roughly 0.17%. The Dow proxy (DIA) was modestly firmer, 479.98 versus 479.41 (+0.12%). Small caps lagged: the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) opened at 249.09 versus 249.63, down about 0.22%. The early profile—large-cap strength and small-cap softness—fits an environment where longer-dated yields remain meaningfully above the 2-year, supporting quality growth but limiting a more cyclical breadth surge.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The Treasury curve continues to show a trough around the 2-year, with the 2-year at 3.51%, the 5-year 3.66%, the 10-year 4.09%, and the 30-year 4.74% (as of 2025-12-02). Very short bills are still comparatively elevated (1-month at 3.90%, 3-month at 3.77%), leaving the front-end firm and the long end higher still, creating a belly-led structure rather than a traditional front/long inversion. Practically, that points to an economy that has cooled from the post-pandemic extremes but still faces term-premia and duration risk on the long end. A long-end yield near 4.1%–4.7% remains a critical valuation input for equities, especially longer-duration assets in technology and communication services.
Inflation data in the payload are through September, with the CPI level at 324.37 and core CPI at 330.54 (indexes). Market-derived inflation expectations as of November show 5-year breakevens at 2.35%, 10-year at 2.27%, and the 5-year/5-year forward at 2.18%. The term structure of expectations remains well anchored near the 2%–2.3% zone, consistent with cooling inflation pressures referenced in services-sector survey commentary. The ISM services report summarized by MarketWatch noted continued expansion in November and easing inflationary pressures, with “tariff uncertainty” cited as a drag on hiring and investment. That nuance matters for cyclicals and for consumer-sensitive segments heading into year-end.
Equities and sectors: a measured bid for mega-cap growth, defensives mixed
Early equity price action reflects the macro contours. SPY and QQQ are both marginally higher. DIA is up modestly, while IWM is lower, suggesting risk appetite remains selective. Among sectors, the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) is up to 290.32 from 289.99 (+0.11%), supported by ongoing AI and cloud narratives in the news flow. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is also slightly firmer at 53.585 versus 53.55 (+0.07%), consistent with the prior day’s strength highlighted by CNBC. Defensives are mixed: Health Care (XLV) is down to 154.92 from 155.08 (-0.10%). Energy (XLE) is softer at 87.33 from 87.60 (-0.31%).
Media and AI remain front-page catalysts. On media consolidation, CNBC reported that bids for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) are in, and MarketWatch said Netflix (NFLX) and Paramount (PARA) have emerged as perceived favorites in the latest round—though investors didn’t like it, with both suitors’ shares down over 5% as details of cash bids emerged. Deal dynamics, balance-sheet capacity, and strategic fit will be front of mind as any path forward takes shape.
In AI and software, multiple pieces underscore a complex setup. MarketWatch noted that Salesforce (CRM) highlighted a “powerful pipeline of future revenue” and AI momentum. Snowflake’s (SNOW) earnings beat, however, wasn’t enough to lift the stock as product revenue growth decelerated, illustrating a higher bar for the data/AI cohort after strong year-to-date performance. Marvell Technology (MRVL) announced it will acquire Celestial AI for up to $5.5 billion (CNBC) in a bid to bolster its networking and AI positioning, a move that complements commentary elsewhere about data center power and capacity bottlenecks. Microsoft (MSFT) faced a negative headline around reported AI sales pressures, though one analyst framed any weakness as an opportunity (MarketWatch), and CNBC highlighted the company “setting the record straight” on related concerns the prior day. CrowdStrike (CRWD) emphasized its growing relationship with Amazon Web Services (AWS), per CNBC, reinforcing the theme that cloud and cybersecurity demand remain intertwined with AI adoption.
Industrials and transport also have actionable updates. Boeing (BA) was a positive outlier Wednesday after its CFO said deliveries for key programs should be higher next year (CNBC; MarketWatch), feeding hopes for operating momentum into 2026. Delta (DAL) trimmed its fourth-quarter profit outlook due to a government shutdown impact of roughly $200 million (CNBC), but MarketWatch reported that Wall Street seemed relieved given healthy demand in the December quarter. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) rallied Wednesday on sustained hopes for Cobenfy in Alzheimer’s despite a delayed late-stage trial readout (MarketWatch).
Policy and regulation remain in the foreground. MarketWatch reported that the European Commission accused Meta Platforms (META) of violating antitrust rules—yet another reminder that mega-cap platforms face persistent regulatory overhangs, particularly in Europe. Separately, tariffs and trade continue to shape corporate planning, with the services ISM citing “tariff uncertainty” and MarketWatch noting a looming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs where contingency plans are being considered to maintain levies.
Bonds: duration softens at the open as the curve stays long-end heavy
Treasury ETFs were a touch lower into the open. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) traded 88.92 versus 89.06 yesterday (-0.16%), while the 7–10 year proxy (IEF) was 96.825 versus 96.97 (-0.15%). The 1–3 year SHY edged down to 82.84 from 82.86 (-0.02%). With the 10-year at 4.09% and the 30-year at 4.74% (12/02), long-duration price sensitivity remains elevated; today’s slight bond weakness is consistent with incremental risk-on in mega-cap tech and the strong initial jobless claims print that reduces near-term recession anxiety.
Commodities: precious metals ease; energy mixed, with oil steady and gas softer
Gold (GLD) is marginally lower at 386.59 versus 386.88 (-0.08%), and silver (SLV) is more notably lower at 52.22 versus 53.07 (-1.6%). That pullback comes after Bloomberg reported silver hitting a record high this week on tight supply and rate-cut hopes—today’s giveback looks like consolidation rather than a trend break. Oil and broad commodities were little changed on last prints: USO sits at 70.66, unchanged versus yesterday’s close on the most recent trade, and the diversified commodities fund DBC is similarly flat at 23.13 on last trade. MarketWatch noted that OPEC+ has been adding supply faster than expected this year, pressuring crude amid a global glut; that remains a headwind unless demand reaccelerates or supply discipline tightens. Natural gas (UNG) is lower at 15.29 versus 15.47 (-1.16%).
FX and crypto: euro edges up, crypto cools after a two-week high
In foreign exchange, EURUSD marks around 1.1669, slightly higher than its open print in the feed, reflecting a modest bid against the dollar. On digital assets, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) sits near 92,734, down about 0.7% versus its open in this feed, and Ethereum (ETHUSD) is near 3,184, down roughly 0.3%. Bloomberg reported Bitcoin rose to a two-week high at $93,900 this week even as broader crypto sentiment remained fragile; a MarketWatch piece cited a JPMorgan strategist who framed a scenario where Bitcoin could trade as high as $170,000 if valued like gold. Those commentaries underscore the ongoing narrative tug of war between macro liquidity, institutional adoption, and risk-management discipline after a sharp multi-year recovery.
Notable company and sector stories from the tape
- Media consolidation: CNBC said bids for WBD are in, while MarketWatch noted Netflix and Paramount as perceived favorites, though investors balked at the cash implications. The competitive dynamics and balance-sheet considerations for each suitor will influence sector multiples.
- AI and software: Salesforce emphasized AI-driven pipeline momentum (MarketWatch), Snowflake’s decelerating product growth tempered enthusiasm despite an earnings beat (MarketWatch), and Marvell agreed to buy Celestial AI (CNBC), highlighting the urgency to secure data movement and interconnect technologies for AI workloads. CrowdStrike pointed to AWS partnership benefits (CNBC), reinforcing a security-plus-cloud flywheel.
- Mega-cap platform risk: The European Commission’s antitrust accusations against Meta (MarketWatch) add to a consistent EU regulatory drumbeat around data and market power.
- Industrials and transport: Boeing’s improved 2026 delivery expectations (CNBC; MarketWatch) supported a turnaround narrative. Delta’s update (CNBC; MarketWatch) balanced a discrete Q4 hit with healthy underlying demand trends.
- Consumer value: Discount retail remains resilient. MarketWatch highlighted Dollar Tree’s sales beat and Dollar General’s traffic gains with shares rallying, suggesting ongoing trade-down behavior and value-seeking by consumers.
Outlook: what to watch next
- The Fed policy debate: MarketWatch reported investors used soft ADP data to bolster expectations for a quarter-point cut next week. Today’s three-year-low jobless claims complicate the picture, reinforcing the need to monitor incoming labor data revisions and the Fed’s communication around growth risks versus inflation progress.
- Yields and the curve: With the 10-year near 4.1% and the 30-year near 4.7%, equity multiples are sensitive to any long-end repricing. Watch auction results, term premium shifts, and any balance-sheet commentary from policymakers if short-term funding conditions tighten (as flagged by MarketWatch in a separate note).
- AI and cloud capex: Company-specific updates (AWS chip strategy, Microsoft sales pacing, and semiconductor interconnect M&A) continue to shape leadership in XLK and QQQ. Execution versus elevated expectations will be the swing factor into year-end.
- Media M&A: Any concrete developments around WBD, NFLX, PARA, and potential partners could move the group and influence broader sentiment toward leveraged “old media.”
- Commodities: Silver’s recent strength and today’s pullback, alongside OPEC+ supply behavior, remain key to inflation narratives and cyclical equities.
Key risks
- Policy and regulation: EU antitrust scrutiny of major platforms and potential U.S. tariff policy uncertainty could dent risk appetite or sector-specific multiples.
- Funding markets: MarketWatch cited potential strains in short-term funding markets; if plumbing issues intensify, the Fed may have to step in, creating cross-asset volatility.
- Growth versus inflation trade-off: A “no-hire, no-fire” labor backdrop can slow disinflation if wage growth outpaces productivity, keeping the long end of the curve elevated and pressuring duration-sensitive equities.
- Execution risk in AI: High expectations across software, semis, and cloud make earnings guides and uptake rates critical; any pauses could trigger deratings after strong runs.
- Energy supply overhang: OPEC+’s contribution to a supply glut (per MarketWatch) could keep oil range-bound, undercutting energy equities and capex plans unless demand improves.
Bottom line
The market opened with a mild pro-risk tilt in mega-cap growth while small caps lagged. The curve remains long-end heavy relative to the 2-year, and inflation expectations are anchored. Sector moves are incremental, consistent with an information-rich but directionally mixed backdrop. Corporate catalysts in AI, media, and industrials, together with evolving labor data and policy headlines, should set the tone into the next Fed decision and year-end positioning.