State of Market: Open 01/06/26
Stocks open mixed as tech leadership persists; metals bid and oil firms while long bonds ease
QQQ and XLK edge higher at the bell, while DIA and IWM slip; GLD and SLV extend safety bid, USO firmer amid Venezuela headlines; latest 10-year yield reading at 4.19% with long-duration bonds soft
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
•
The U.S. equity market opened Tuesday on a mixed footing, with mega-cap technology again setting the early tone while cyclicals and small caps lagged. At the bell, the Nasdaq-100 proxy QQQ traded at 619.25, up about 0.20% versus Monday’s close, and the S&P 500 tracker SPY hovered near 688.06, modestly positive by around 0.05%. The Dow-linked DIA was slightly lower at 489.34 (down roughly 0.09%), and small caps, via IWM, slipped about 0.19% to 252.25. The sector picture shows incremental strength in technology and health care, while financials are little softer and utilities are fractionally higher.
The macro backdrop remains defined by moderate inflation expectations and a still-restrictive level of long-term rates. The latest available Treasury curve reading (as of January 2) puts the 10-year at 4.19% and the 30-year at 4.86%. Two-year yields sit at 3.47%, roughly even with the 1-year tenor and below the 5-year at 3.74%, preserving a curve shape that is flat to mildly inverted in the front end and upward sloping further out. Those levels are consistent with this morning’s slight softness in duration-sensitive bond ETFs: TLT opened at 87.16, down about 0.34% versus Monday, and IEF at 96.245, lower by roughly 0.13%. SHY is essentially unchanged at 82.885. The modest decline in TLT and IEF aligns with a long-end term premium that remains elevated relative to 2023 levels.
On inflation, the most recent CPI prints (November) put headline at 325.031 and core at 331.068 (index levels), while market-based inflation expectations are anchored: five-year breakevens at about 2.28% and 10-year at 2.24%, with a model-based one-year expectation of 3.20%. That constellation—an anchored medium-term inflation view but slightly hotter near-term expectation—matches mixed growth signals, including continued manufacturing contraction. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 47.9% in December and marked a 10th consecutive contraction month, according to reporting, underscoring a backdrop of uneven goods demand even as services and tech investment stay resilient.
Against that macro canvas, investors are navigating a heavy stream of AI- and semiconductor-related developments from CES alongside evolving geopolitics in Venezuela. On the tech front, Nvidia’s CEO signaled ongoing momentum—“Vera Rubin is in full production”—with a focus on real-world AI use cases. AMD’s CES keynote highlighted cost and memory advantages as it pursues share in AI accelerators and the broader compute buildout. Complementing those narratives, ASML gained on an analyst upgrade tied to demand from memory producers, and an analyst at Melius Research turned constructive on Intel, arguing its foundry unit may earn more respect. Micron has also been flagged as a standout on forward revenue growth forecasts driven by improving memory pricing. Meanwhile, software selectivity remains a theme; analysts highlighted a set of top-pick names in a choppy sub-sector, while a new Palantir bull at Truist argued that the company’s margin profile plus revenue growth can justify a premium valuation.
These datapoints help explain the early leadership in XLK, which is up about 0.39% to 145.19 at the open, and the modest outperformance of QQQ relative to SPY. The market continues to reward companies with direct exposure to AI infrastructure and memory, even as some strategists caution that 2026 leadership could broaden toward old-economy and value segments. A MarketWatch piece noted that some market veterans view bitcoin’s recent softness as a potential signal of rotation toward traditional industries this year—though, notably, crypto is firmer this morning, suggesting near-term positioning remains fluid.
Beyond AI, autos and autonomous driving are also in the headlines. Tesla’s EV sales fell short of even tempered expectations and marked a second straight annual decline, ceding global leadership to China’s BYD per reporting. Separately, Mobileye’s latest design win was framed as an industry validation of sensor fusion (cameras plus radar) versus a camera-only approach, a philosophical divergence from Tesla’s path. Those contrasts reinforce how capital spending in autonomy remains selective and performance-driven, with investors likely to differentiate based on real-world safety and reliability metrics over the course of 2026.
In health care, XLV is up about 0.17% to 155.30, but the group remains headline-sensitive. Novo Nordisk’s announcement that its weight-loss pill is available in the U.S. weighed on peers Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics, per reporting, as investors recalibrate competitive dynamics in GLP-1 therapies. The sector’s long-duration earnings profile also ties it partially to rate moves; with the 10-year still above 4%, valuation support remains strongest for franchises with robust near-term cash flows and clear competitive moats.
Financials opened slightly weaker—XLF is down about 0.09%—even as several pieces highlight ongoing strength at the big banks after a standout 2025. JPMorgan’s scale and relative valuation in the “$900 billion club” drew attention, and CNBC’s look-ahead piece suggested more of the same for bank stocks in 2026. For the moment, early pressure in XLF appears more mechanical with the modest drift higher in long rates and cautious risk sentiment outside of tech leadership.
Utilities are fractionally firmer. Notably, the sector entry provided shows a symbol of XLU (utilities) quoted at 42.77, up about 0.16% versus Monday, though it appears under a line item labeled for energy in the data feed. We reference the symbol displayed (XLU), which aligns with typical utilities exposure, and observe that the group’s defensive and rate-sensitive characteristics are consistent with the tick-by-tick.
Commodities are an important axis this morning. Gold (GLD) is higher by about 0.5% to 410.80, while silver (SLV) extends a stronger move, up roughly 3.5% to 71.47. Reporting tied yesterday’s bid in the metals complex to a flight-to-safety impulse following U.S. intervention in Venezuela. Oil is also firmer, with USO up around 0.61% to 70.65. Several analyses attempt to parse the implications of developments in Venezuela: one strategist projected a potential price premium for crude as regime-change risk perception rises, while other coverage argued that even with policy shifts, rebuilding Venezuela’s energy infrastructure would take time and capital, tempering the near-term supply response. Cramer also warned that chasing Venezuela-linked energy trades could be “all spec,” suggesting that much of the perceived benefit for select U.S. majors may already be in the price. Natural gas is an outlier to the downside; UNG is off about 3.4%, indicative of ample supply and/or seasonal demand dynamics.
Broader commodities via DBC last traded at 22.81, unchanged from Monday’s close. Early bid-ask indications are slightly higher, but no opening print is reflected in the feed; we will monitor for confirmation as price discovery progresses.
In foreign exchange, EURUSD trades near 1.1702, modestly softer versus its stated open of 1.1713. Dollar dynamics will remain linked to incoming growth and inflation data; a push-pull between a cooling manufacturing sector and still-firm services activity, combined with the Fed’s path, will anchor currency ranges barring a larger macro surprise.
Crypto is firmer at the open. Bitcoin’s mark is around 94,238, up roughly 0.5% relative to today’s stated open, with an intraday range so far of about 93,100 to 94,453. Ether is stronger, up about 2.4% versus its open to around 3,300, with a range of roughly 3,210 to 3,310. That rebound contrasts with commentary from market veterans who interpreted recent bitcoin weakness as a sign of rotation to old-economy equities in 2026; today’s bounce underscores that cross-asset rotation calls may not play out in a straight line.
The news flow also spans retail and media. Under Armour drew interest after Fairfax continued building its stake, while Versant—the Comcast spinoff housing cable TV holdings like CNBC and MS NOW—had a rocky first trading day, tumbling nearly 15% on debut, per reports. In consumer discretionary, furniture names rallied on delayed tariffs, and Manchester United shares gained after the club moved on from its coach, illustrating how company-specific catalysts can temporarily override macro currents.
On policy and the economy, several strategists warn that geopolitical realignment and deglobalization could keep structural inflation pressures elevated, complicating the outlook for a traditional 60/40 portfolio and strengthening the case for diversifiers. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that AI adoption may be contributing to a hiring slowdown among large companies, a datapoint that will be watched closely as investors brace for a crucial jobs report later this week. The combination of anchored long-term inflation expectations and mixed near-term growth signals leaves the market acutely sensitive to the labor data path: a softer jobs print would bolster the case for an earlier pivot toward easier policy, while persistent tightness could keep the long end sticky and cap upside for duration plays.
Bottom line at the open: Tech and AI-linked themes continue to carry the tape, metals are bid on a safety bid and geopolitical risk premium, oil is firmer but nuanced by the complexities of Venezuelan supply, and long bonds are a touch heavy with the 10-year’s latest reading still above 4%. With breadth tentative and leadership narrow, incremental macro inputs later this week will likely determine whether this nascent rotation broadens or reverts back to the 2025 playbook of mega-cap dominance.
The U.S. equity market opened Tuesday on a mixed footing, with mega-cap technology again setting the early tone while cyclicals and small caps lagged. At the bell, the Nasdaq-100 proxy QQQ traded at 619.25, up about 0.20% versus Monday’s close, and the S&P 500 tracker SPY hovered near 688.06, modestly positive by around 0.05%. The Dow-linked DIA was slightly lower at 489.34 (down roughly 0.09%), and small caps, via IWM, slipped about 0.19% to 252.25. The sector picture shows incremental strength in technology and health care, while financials are little softer and utilities are fractionally higher.
The macro backdrop remains defined by moderate inflation expectations and a still-restrictive level of long-term rates. The latest available Treasury curve reading (as of January 2) puts the 10-year at 4.19% and the 30-year at 4.86%. Two-year yields sit at 3.47%, roughly even with the 1-year tenor and below the 5-year at 3.74%, preserving a curve shape that is flat to mildly inverted in the front end and upward sloping further out. Those levels are consistent with this morning’s slight softness in duration-sensitive bond ETFs: TLT opened at 87.16, down about 0.34% versus Monday, and IEF at 96.245, lower by roughly 0.13%. SHY is essentially unchanged at 82.885. The modest decline in TLT and IEF aligns with a long-end term premium that remains elevated relative to 2023 levels.
On inflation, the most recent CPI prints (November) put headline at 325.031 and core at 331.068 (index levels), while market-based inflation expectations are anchored: five-year breakevens at about 2.28% and 10-year at 2.24%, with a model-based one-year expectation of 3.20%. That constellation—an anchored medium-term inflation view but slightly hotter near-term expectation—matches mixed growth signals, including continued manufacturing contraction. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to 47.9% in December and marked a 10th consecutive contraction month, according to reporting, underscoring a backdrop of uneven goods demand even as services and tech investment stay resilient.
Against that macro canvas, investors are navigating a heavy stream of AI- and semiconductor-related developments from CES alongside evolving geopolitics in Venezuela. On the tech front, Nvidia’s CEO signaled ongoing momentum—“Vera Rubin is in full production”—with a focus on real-world AI use cases. AMD’s CES keynote highlighted cost and memory advantages as it pursues share in AI accelerators and the broader compute buildout. Complementing those narratives, ASML gained on an analyst upgrade tied to demand from memory producers, and an analyst at Melius Research turned constructive on Intel, arguing its foundry unit may earn more respect. Micron has also been flagged as a standout on forward revenue growth forecasts driven by improving memory pricing. Meanwhile, software selectivity remains a theme; analysts highlighted a set of top-pick names in a choppy sub-sector, while a new Palantir bull at Truist argued that the company’s margin profile plus revenue growth can justify a premium valuation.
These datapoints help explain the early leadership in XLK, which is up about 0.39% to 145.19 at the open, and the modest outperformance of QQQ relative to SPY. The market continues to reward companies with direct exposure to AI infrastructure and memory, even as some strategists caution that 2026 leadership could broaden toward old-economy and value segments. A MarketWatch piece noted that some market veterans view bitcoin’s recent softness as a potential signal of rotation toward traditional industries this year—though, notably, crypto is firmer this morning, suggesting near-term positioning remains fluid.
Beyond AI, autos and autonomous driving are also in the headlines. Tesla’s EV sales fell short of even tempered expectations and marked a second straight annual decline, ceding global leadership to China’s BYD per reporting. Separately, Mobileye’s latest design win was framed as an industry validation of sensor fusion (cameras plus radar) versus a camera-only approach, a philosophical divergence from Tesla’s path. Those contrasts reinforce how capital spending in autonomy remains selective and performance-driven, with investors likely to differentiate based on real-world safety and reliability metrics over the course of 2026.
In health care, XLV is up about 0.17% to 155.30, but the group remains headline-sensitive. Novo Nordisk’s announcement that its weight-loss pill is available in the U.S. weighed on peers Eli Lilly and Viking Therapeutics, per reporting, as investors recalibrate competitive dynamics in GLP-1 therapies. The sector’s long-duration earnings profile also ties it partially to rate moves; with the 10-year still above 4%, valuation support remains strongest for franchises with robust near-term cash flows and clear competitive moats.
Financials opened slightly weaker—XLF is down about 0.09%—even as several pieces highlight ongoing strength at the big banks after a standout 2025. JPMorgan’s scale and relative valuation in the “$900 billion club” drew attention, and CNBC’s look-ahead piece suggested more of the same for bank stocks in 2026. For the moment, early pressure in XLF appears more mechanical with the modest drift higher in long rates and cautious risk sentiment outside of tech leadership.
Utilities are fractionally firmer. Notably, the sector entry provided shows a symbol of XLU (utilities) quoted at 42.77, up about 0.16% versus Monday, though it appears under a line item labeled for energy in the data feed. We reference the symbol displayed (XLU), which aligns with typical utilities exposure, and observe that the group’s defensive and rate-sensitive characteristics are consistent with the tick-by-tick.
Commodities are an important axis this morning. Gold (GLD) is higher by about 0.5% to 410.80, while silver (SLV) extends a stronger move, up roughly 3.5% to 71.47. Reporting tied yesterday’s bid in the metals complex to a flight-to-safety impulse following U.S. intervention in Venezuela. Oil is also firmer, with USO up around 0.61% to 70.65. Several analyses attempt to parse the implications of developments in Venezuela: one strategist projected a potential price premium for crude as regime-change risk perception rises, while other coverage argued that even with policy shifts, rebuilding Venezuela’s energy infrastructure would take time and capital, tempering the near-term supply response. Cramer also warned that chasing Venezuela-linked energy trades could be “all spec,” suggesting that much of the perceived benefit for select U.S. majors may already be in the price. Natural gas is an outlier to the downside; UNG is off about 3.4%, indicative of ample supply and/or seasonal demand dynamics.
Broader commodities via DBC last traded at 22.81, unchanged from Monday’s close. Early bid-ask indications are slightly higher, but no opening print is reflected in the feed; we will monitor for confirmation as price discovery progresses.
In foreign exchange, EURUSD trades near 1.1702, modestly softer versus its stated open of 1.1713. Dollar dynamics will remain linked to incoming growth and inflation data; a push-pull between a cooling manufacturing sector and still-firm services activity, combined with the Fed’s path, will anchor currency ranges barring a larger macro surprise.
Crypto is firmer at the open. Bitcoin’s mark is around 94,238, up roughly 0.5% relative to today’s stated open, with an intraday range so far of about 93,100 to 94,453. Ether is stronger, up about 2.4% versus its open to around 3,300, with a range of roughly 3,210 to 3,310. That rebound contrasts with commentary from market veterans who interpreted recent bitcoin weakness as a sign of rotation to old-economy equities in 2026; today’s bounce underscores that cross-asset rotation calls may not play out in a straight line.
The news flow also spans retail and media. Under Armour drew interest after Fairfax continued building its stake, while Versant—the Comcast spinoff housing cable TV holdings like CNBC and MS NOW—had a rocky first trading day, tumbling nearly 15% on debut, per reports. In consumer discretionary, furniture names rallied on delayed tariffs, and Manchester United shares gained after the club moved on from its coach, illustrating how company-specific catalysts can temporarily override macro currents.
On policy and the economy, several strategists warn that geopolitical realignment and deglobalization could keep structural inflation pressures elevated, complicating the outlook for a traditional 60/40 portfolio and strengthening the case for diversifiers. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that AI adoption may be contributing to a hiring slowdown among large companies, a datapoint that will be watched closely as investors brace for a crucial jobs report later this week. The combination of anchored long-term inflation expectations and mixed near-term growth signals leaves the market acutely sensitive to the labor data path: a softer jobs print would bolster the case for an earlier pivot toward easier policy, while persistent tightness could keep the long end sticky and cap upside for duration plays.
Bottom line at the open: Tech and AI-linked themes continue to carry the tape, metals are bid on a safety bid and geopolitical risk premium, oil is firmer but nuanced by the complexities of Venezuelan supply, and long bonds are a touch heavy with the 10-year’s latest reading still above 4%. With breadth tentative and leadership narrow, incremental macro inputs later this week will likely determine whether this nascent rotation broadens or reverts back to the 2025 playbook of mega-cap dominance.