State of Market: Open 01/13/26
Stocks open mixed as CPI looms; bonds, gold and oil bid to start the day
At the bell, SPY and small caps edge higher while Dow and financials lag; 10-year at 4.18% as of last read, inflation expectations anchored, and safe-haven demand lifts GLD and SLV. Policy risk around the Fed, tariffs, and credit cards stays in focus.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Opening overview
U.S. equities started Tuesday on a mixed footing as investors positioned around the next inflation update and a noisy policy backdrop. At the open, the S&P 500 proxy (SPY) ticked up to 695.43 from Monday’s 695.16 prior close, while the Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) hovered essentially unchanged at 627.15 versus 627.17. The Dow (DIA) was marginally softer at 495.71 from 495.90, and small caps (IWM) led early with an uptick to 262.30 from 261.50. The tone reflects a modestly risk-on bias in cyclicals and small caps, countered by a more cautious read-through for the price-weighted Dow and for Financials at the open.
The pre-market news flow has been dominated by inflation and policy. CNBC flagged a positive bias into the open as Wall Street weighs consumer inflation data, and MarketWatch previewed December CPI as likely “sticky,” a dynamic that could keep the Federal Reserve on hold a bit longer. At the same time, institutional support for the Fed’s independence remains in the headlines: global central bankers and former U.S. officials publicly defended Chair Jerome Powell this week, even as the Justice Department probe adds an unusual political overlay. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court could issue an opinion on Trump-era tariffs as soon as Wednesday, and separate reporting highlights the corporate and labor-market frictions from tariff policy. All of this is feeding into cross-asset positioning: duration is bid, precious metals are firm, and crude is supported on geopolitical tension.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, expectations
Treasury yields remain above late-2025 troughs but have eased from their peaks. As of the latest available reading (January 9), the 2-year sits at 3.54%, the 5-year at 3.75%, the 10-year at 4.18%, and the 30-year at 4.82%. The curve retains a positive slope from the 2-year to the long end, reflecting a market that still demands term premium but that also anticipates some eventual policy normalization. Early trading in duration proxies corroborates a small dip in yields this morning: long (TLT), intermediate (IEF), and front-end (SHY) Treasury ETFs all opened firmer versus Monday’s closes.
On inflation, the most recent headline CPI level is 325.031 (November), with core CPI at 331.068. While these index levels are not directly annualized, the trend discussion in today’s coverage emphasizes “stickiness” into the year-end data. Expectations, however, remain relatively well-anchored: model-based 1-year inflation expectations are 3.20%, while 5-year and 10-year models sit at 2.42% and 2.34%, respectively; market-implied 5- and 10-year measures cluster around 2.28%–2.24%. The mix—elevated near-term expectations with anchored medium-term measures—helps explain why the front end is sensitive to incoming CPI while the long end is supported by confidence in eventual convergence toward target.
A number of high-profile voices continue to shape the policy debate. MarketWatch highlighted BlackRock’s Rick Rieder reiterating a view that the Fed funds rate ultimately needs to move closer to 3%—a level he described as nearer equilibrium. That framing fits with the curve’s modest steepening and with the bid in belly/long duration as investors look past potential short-term “stickiness.” At the same time, policy uncertainty remains a clear risk factor: former and current global officials defended Powell’s independence (CNBC), and multiple pieces explored how political pressure on the Fed could affect inflation psychology—an issue that would matter for the entire curve if confidence were to erode.
Equities and sectors
The opening tape shows a nuanced equity picture. SPY is fractionally higher at 695.43 (from 695.16), QQQ is essentially flat at 627.15 (from 627.17), DIA is a touch softer at 495.71 (from 495.90), and IWM leads with a gain to 262.30 (from 261.50). The small-cap bid is consistent with a modestly pro-cyclical stance into earnings, even as headline risks keep investors selective.
Among sectors, moves are incremental but revealing. Technology (XLK) is steady to slightly higher at 146.80 (from 146.79), suggesting no major repositioning in megacap growth at the open. Health Care (XLV) is firmer at 157.63 (from 157.38), a defensive tilt that can perform in both soft-landing and late-cycle narratives. Financials (XLF) are a shade lower at 55.21 (from 55.29). The sector faces competing forces today: firming credit conditions and solid mega-bank earnings on one side, and policy overhangs on the other. MarketWatch reported JPMorgan’s quarterly results beat expectations, with CEO Jamie Dimon underscoring U.S. economic resilience; at the same time, CNBC highlighted that banks could challenge a proposed 10% cap on credit-card APRs. The combination may keep XLF rangebound until investors get more clarity on both earnings guidance and policy feasibility. Separate commentary suggests investors “shouldn’t panic” about the rate-cap proposal’s odds, but the headline risk can still weigh on multiples near-term.
Stock-specific news is active in Industrials and Airlines. MarketWatch reported that Boeing’s order momentum continued—with up to 60 additional planes in the latest batch—pushing the stock to a two-year high. CNBC also noted that Boeing is on pace for its best deliveries since 2018, with production increases to be outlined later this month. On the other side of the ledger, Delta Air Lines shares were under pressure after adjusted revenue missed expectations, per MarketWatch. Additionally, Allegiant’s plan to acquire Sun Country for about $1.5 billion adds another consolidation datapoint in a competitive space. These cross-currents map to a broader theme: aerospace backlogs and defense-adjacent demand on one hand, and consumer-spend normalization plus operational disruptions on the other.
Bonds
Rates markets opened with a constructive tone for duration. TLT is up to 87.89 from 87.67, IEF to 96.345 from 96.18, and SHY to 82.86 from 82.83. The move is modest but directionally consistent with a pre-CPI bid and with anxiety around policy headlines that tends to favor Treasuries as hedges. With the 10-year last at 4.18% as of the latest print and inflation expectations near 2.3% on a 5–10-year horizon, the term premium narrative still has room to evolve as the data flow firms up. Into the CPI release, investors will watch whether shelter and services components continue to resist disinflation; an upside surprise would likely pressure the front end first, while a downside surprise could extend gains in the belly and long end.
Commodities
Gold and silver are again signaling caution and diversification demand. GLD opened at 424.70, up from 422.23, while SLV jumped more sharply to 80.06 from 77.23. Several pieces this week cite a confluence of supports for precious metals—geopolitical tension, policy uncertainty, and the persistence of a commodities “supercycle” narrative. Bloomberg’s investor survey shows managers staying constructive on gold after a record 2025 performance, while MarketWatch framed the latest surge in gold and silver as reflective of broader risk management by investors to start 2026. The bid in metals complements, rather than contradicts, the modest bid in duration today; both can function as hedges against policy volatility and growth shocks.
Energy is also firm. USO is higher at 72.81 from 71.65, while DBC, a broad commodities basket, is up to 23.34 from 23.19. MarketWatch pointed to renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.–Iran tensions and noted that crude rose about 3% last week on catalysts beyond Venezuela alone. The intersection of geopolitics and supply remains a key driver for crude’s risk premium. Natural gas is the outlier at the open: UNG is a touch lower at 11.14 from 11.18, reflecting idiosyncratic weather, storage, and regional dynamics that can diverge from oil’s macro drivers.
FX and crypto
FX data in today’s feed are limited, but EURUSD is quoted around 1.1669. Without a prior-day reference in the dataset, it’s difficult to ascribe directional color at the open. The broader narrative—anchored expectations and a soft bid for duration—would typically align with a modestly softer dollar, though we will defer definitive conclusions until more price context is available.
Crypto is firmer. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) trades near 92,289 with an intraday range of roughly 91,364 to 92,625 versus an open of about 91,417. Ether (ETHUSD) is near 3,151 with a range of about 3,118 to 3,159 versus a 3,119 open. The constructive tone in digital assets is directionally aligned with the bid in metals and bonds—each reflecting, in different ways, portfolio hedging and liquidity preferences as investors await CPI and parse policy headlines.
Policy and event risks
Policy developments remain front and center. CNBC reported that global central bankers have rallied behind Chair Powell, and a separate roundup of former U.S. officials voiced concern about “prosecutorial attacks” potentially undermining the Fed. MarketWatch outlined how sustained political pressure could, in some scenarios, lift inflation by denting the public’s confidence in the Fed’s commitment. On trade, MarketWatch noted the Supreme Court may rule on Trump’s tariffs as soon as Wednesday, while a CNBC/ASCM survey found rising layoffs and reduced investment within parts of the supply chain. Together, these items sharpen the event-risk calendar for markets over the next 48 hours.
Earnings season is beginning to assert itself. JPMorgan’s better-than-expected results and commentary on U.S. economic resilience are constructive signals for the macro baseline and for Financials’ credit quality. At the same time, the day’s travel and airline headlines (Delta’s revenue miss; Allegiant’s planned acquisition of Sun Country) remind investors that consumer and operational dynamics remain mixed across subsectors. We expect sector-level leadership to rotate as guidance firms up.
Outlook: what to watch next
- CPI print and composition: Shelter and services ex-shelter are key. A sticky read would likely cap today’s bid in duration; a softer print could extend it and support higher-duration equities.
- Fed communication and independence: Any new statements from policymakers or global counterparts can shape expectations. So far, expectations remain anchored in the 2.3% area for 5–10 years, but confidence is a crucial variable.
- Supreme Court on tariffs: A decision, or another deferral, will affect corporate planning and potentially near-term pricing power in exposed industries.
- Bank earnings and guidance: With Financials soft at the open, updates on net interest income, credit costs, and capital plans will be pivotal.
- Geopolitics and energy: Further developments around Iran and shipping lanes, as well as Venezuela policy, will influence crude’s risk premium.
Bottom line
The opening cross-asset message is measured: modest equity gains led by small caps, a gentle bid in duration, and firmer precious metals and crude. Inflation expectations are anchored even as near-term CPI is watched closely. Policy uncertainty—around the Fed, tariffs, and consumer finance—remains a notable overhang, but early bank results and aerospace order strength offer counterweights. Positioning into CPI and early earnings suggests a market comfortable carrying hedges while waiting for clearer signals on growth, prices, and policy trajectory.
Opening overview
U.S. equities started Tuesday on a mixed footing as investors positioned around the next inflation update and a noisy policy backdrop. At the open, the S&P 500 proxy (SPY) ticked up to 695.43 from Monday’s 695.16 prior close, while the Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) hovered essentially unchanged at 627.15 versus 627.17. The Dow (DIA) was marginally softer at 495.71 from 495.90, and small caps (IWM) led early with an uptick to 262.30 from 261.50. The tone reflects a modestly risk-on bias in cyclicals and small caps, countered by a more cautious read-through for the price-weighted Dow and for Financials at the open.
The pre-market news flow has been dominated by inflation and policy. CNBC flagged a positive bias into the open as Wall Street weighs consumer inflation data, and MarketWatch previewed December CPI as likely “sticky,” a dynamic that could keep the Federal Reserve on hold a bit longer. At the same time, institutional support for the Fed’s independence remains in the headlines: global central bankers and former U.S. officials publicly defended Chair Jerome Powell this week, even as the Justice Department probe adds an unusual political overlay. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court could issue an opinion on Trump-era tariffs as soon as Wednesday, and separate reporting highlights the corporate and labor-market frictions from tariff policy. All of this is feeding into cross-asset positioning: duration is bid, precious metals are firm, and crude is supported on geopolitical tension.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, expectations
Treasury yields remain above late-2025 troughs but have eased from their peaks. As of the latest available reading (January 9), the 2-year sits at 3.54%, the 5-year at 3.75%, the 10-year at 4.18%, and the 30-year at 4.82%. The curve retains a positive slope from the 2-year to the long end, reflecting a market that still demands term premium but that also anticipates some eventual policy normalization. Early trading in duration proxies corroborates a small dip in yields this morning: long (TLT), intermediate (IEF), and front-end (SHY) Treasury ETFs all opened firmer versus Monday’s closes.
On inflation, the most recent headline CPI level is 325.031 (November), with core CPI at 331.068. While these index levels are not directly annualized, the trend discussion in today’s coverage emphasizes “stickiness” into the year-end data. Expectations, however, remain relatively well-anchored: model-based 1-year inflation expectations are 3.20%, while 5-year and 10-year models sit at 2.42% and 2.34%, respectively; market-implied 5- and 10-year measures cluster around 2.28%–2.24%. The mix—elevated near-term expectations with anchored medium-term measures—helps explain why the front end is sensitive to incoming CPI while the long end is supported by confidence in eventual convergence toward target.
A number of high-profile voices continue to shape the policy debate. MarketWatch highlighted BlackRock’s Rick Rieder reiterating a view that the Fed funds rate ultimately needs to move closer to 3%—a level he described as nearer equilibrium. That framing fits with the curve’s modest steepening and with the bid in belly/long duration as investors look past potential short-term “stickiness.” At the same time, policy uncertainty remains a clear risk factor: former and current global officials defended Powell’s independence (CNBC), and multiple pieces explored how political pressure on the Fed could affect inflation psychology—an issue that would matter for the entire curve if confidence were to erode.
Equities and sectors
The opening tape shows a nuanced equity picture. SPY is fractionally higher at 695.43 (from 695.16), QQQ is essentially flat at 627.15 (from 627.17), DIA is a touch softer at 495.71 (from 495.90), and IWM leads with a gain to 262.30 (from 261.50). The small-cap bid is consistent with a modestly pro-cyclical stance into earnings, even as headline risks keep investors selective.
Among sectors, moves are incremental but revealing. Technology (XLK) is steady to slightly higher at 146.80 (from 146.79), suggesting no major repositioning in megacap growth at the open. Health Care (XLV) is firmer at 157.63 (from 157.38), a defensive tilt that can perform in both soft-landing and late-cycle narratives. Financials (XLF) are a shade lower at 55.21 (from 55.29). The sector faces competing forces today: firming credit conditions and solid mega-bank earnings on one side, and policy overhangs on the other. MarketWatch reported JPMorgan’s quarterly results beat expectations, with CEO Jamie Dimon underscoring U.S. economic resilience; at the same time, CNBC highlighted that banks could challenge a proposed 10% cap on credit-card APRs. The combination may keep XLF rangebound until investors get more clarity on both earnings guidance and policy feasibility. Separate commentary suggests investors “shouldn’t panic” about the rate-cap proposal’s odds, but the headline risk can still weigh on multiples near-term.
Stock-specific news is active in Industrials and Airlines. MarketWatch reported that Boeing’s order momentum continued—with up to 60 additional planes in the latest batch—pushing the stock to a two-year high. CNBC also noted that Boeing is on pace for its best deliveries since 2018, with production increases to be outlined later this month. On the other side of the ledger, Delta Air Lines shares were under pressure after adjusted revenue missed expectations, per MarketWatch. Additionally, Allegiant’s plan to acquire Sun Country for about $1.5 billion adds another consolidation datapoint in a competitive space. These cross-currents map to a broader theme: aerospace backlogs and defense-adjacent demand on one hand, and consumer-spend normalization plus operational disruptions on the other.
Bonds
Rates markets opened with a constructive tone for duration. TLT is up to 87.89 from 87.67, IEF to 96.345 from 96.18, and SHY to 82.86 from 82.83. The move is modest but directionally consistent with a pre-CPI bid and with anxiety around policy headlines that tends to favor Treasuries as hedges. With the 10-year last at 4.18% as of the latest print and inflation expectations near 2.3% on a 5–10-year horizon, the term premium narrative still has room to evolve as the data flow firms up. Into the CPI release, investors will watch whether shelter and services components continue to resist disinflation; an upside surprise would likely pressure the front end first, while a downside surprise could extend gains in the belly and long end.
Commodities
Gold and silver are again signaling caution and diversification demand. GLD opened at 424.70, up from 422.23, while SLV jumped more sharply to 80.06 from 77.23. Several pieces this week cite a confluence of supports for precious metals—geopolitical tension, policy uncertainty, and the persistence of a commodities “supercycle” narrative. Bloomberg’s investor survey shows managers staying constructive on gold after a record 2025 performance, while MarketWatch framed the latest surge in gold and silver as reflective of broader risk management by investors to start 2026. The bid in metals complements, rather than contradicts, the modest bid in duration today; both can function as hedges against policy volatility and growth shocks.
Energy is also firm. USO is higher at 72.81 from 71.65, while DBC, a broad commodities basket, is up to 23.34 from 23.19. MarketWatch pointed to renewed focus on the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.–Iran tensions and noted that crude rose about 3% last week on catalysts beyond Venezuela alone. The intersection of geopolitics and supply remains a key driver for crude’s risk premium. Natural gas is the outlier at the open: UNG is a touch lower at 11.14 from 11.18, reflecting idiosyncratic weather, storage, and regional dynamics that can diverge from oil’s macro drivers.
FX and crypto
FX data in today’s feed are limited, but EURUSD is quoted around 1.1669. Without a prior-day reference in the dataset, it’s difficult to ascribe directional color at the open. The broader narrative—anchored expectations and a soft bid for duration—would typically align with a modestly softer dollar, though we will defer definitive conclusions until more price context is available.
Crypto is firmer. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) trades near 92,289 with an intraday range of roughly 91,364 to 92,625 versus an open of about 91,417. Ether (ETHUSD) is near 3,151 with a range of about 3,118 to 3,159 versus a 3,119 open. The constructive tone in digital assets is directionally aligned with the bid in metals and bonds—each reflecting, in different ways, portfolio hedging and liquidity preferences as investors await CPI and parse policy headlines.
Policy and event risks
Policy developments remain front and center. CNBC reported that global central bankers have rallied behind Chair Powell, and a separate roundup of former U.S. officials voiced concern about “prosecutorial attacks” potentially undermining the Fed. MarketWatch outlined how sustained political pressure could, in some scenarios, lift inflation by denting the public’s confidence in the Fed’s commitment. On trade, MarketWatch noted the Supreme Court may rule on Trump’s tariffs as soon as Wednesday, while a CNBC/ASCM survey found rising layoffs and reduced investment within parts of the supply chain. Together, these items sharpen the event-risk calendar for markets over the next 48 hours.
Earnings season is beginning to assert itself. JPMorgan’s better-than-expected results and commentary on U.S. economic resilience are constructive signals for the macro baseline and for Financials’ credit quality. At the same time, the day’s travel and airline headlines (Delta’s revenue miss; Allegiant’s planned acquisition of Sun Country) remind investors that consumer and operational dynamics remain mixed across subsectors. We expect sector-level leadership to rotate as guidance firms up.
Outlook: what to watch next
- CPI print and composition: Shelter and services ex-shelter are key. A sticky read would likely cap today’s bid in duration; a softer print could extend it and support higher-duration equities.
- Fed communication and independence: Any new statements from policymakers or global counterparts can shape expectations. So far, expectations remain anchored in the 2.3% area for 5–10 years, but confidence is a crucial variable.
- Supreme Court on tariffs: A decision, or another deferral, will affect corporate planning and potentially near-term pricing power in exposed industries.
- Bank earnings and guidance: With Financials soft at the open, updates on net interest income, credit costs, and capital plans will be pivotal.
- Geopolitics and energy: Further developments around Iran and shipping lanes, as well as Venezuela policy, will influence crude’s risk premium.
Bottom line
The opening cross-asset message is measured: modest equity gains led by small caps, a gentle bid in duration, and firmer precious metals and crude. Inflation expectations are anchored even as near-term CPI is watched closely. Policy uncertainty—around the Fed, tariffs, and consumer finance—remains a notable overhang, but early bank results and aerospace order strength offer counterweights. Positioning into CPI and early earnings suggests a market comfortable carrying hedges while waiting for clearer signals on growth, prices, and policy trajectory.