State of Market: Open 01/22/26
Stocks open higher as tech and small caps lead; yields elevated, gold firms and oil eases
Improved tone around geopolitics helps risk appetite at the bell. Steeper yield curve lends support to financials while health care lags. Precious metals stay bid; EURUSD edges higher; crypto slips.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Equities opened in the green on Thursday, continuing a rebound from earlier-week volatility as investors digested a steadier macro backdrop and a mix of corporate and policy headlines. At the cash open, broad index ETFs were higher versus Wednesday’s closes: SPY traded above its prior close, QQQ outperformed as growth regained footing, DIA advanced, and small caps via IWM also pushed higher. The early bid aligns with an improved tone around geopolitical risks noted by traders, even as the policy path remains fluid and data-dependent. CNBC highlighted that the S&P 500 advanced this morning as Wall Street cheered signs of easing geopolitical tensions, setting a constructive tone at the bell.
Macro context and rates
The rate backdrop remains a crucial driver. Treasury yields are elevated on the long end relative to the front end, with the most recent readings showing 2-year at 3.60%, 5-year at 3.86%, 10-year at 4.30%, and 30-year at 4.91%. The curve’s steepness from 2s to 10s and 30s—particularly the high 30-year yield—implies term premium and supply considerations remain in play, as does the policy uncertainty premium tied to trade rhetoric and global growth. Earlier this week, long duration endured a sharp selloff, with MarketWatch noting the Treasury market faced its worst day in six months as tariff risks re-emerged; that context helps explain why long-end yields remain firm.
On inflation, the latest published CPI level for December was 326.03 on the headline index and 331.86 on core, while model-based inflation expectations are anchored near 2.3%–2.6%: 1-year at 2.60%, 5-year at 2.33%, and 10-year at 2.32%. These expectations, sitting modestly above the Federal Reserve’s target but not unmoored, provide a backdrop where the Fed can remain data-dependent. Labor market signals this morning point to stability: MarketWatch highlights additional evidence of a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market from jobless claims, which tends to support soft-landing hopes. Meanwhile, growth momentum remains notable, with the economy reported to have grown 4.4% in Q3, driven by consumer spending and business investment. Together, resilient growth, a still-firm labor market, and contained longer-term inflation expectations set a backdrop for earnings to remain the near-term catalyst, while yields and policy remain the key risk toggles.
Equities: strong open with growth leadership
Index ETFs reflected constructive breadth at the open:
- SPY last traded above its previous close of 685.40, up roughly 0.6% on a price basis.
- QQQ led with an early gain of about 0.9% versus its 616.28 prior close, consistent with better risk appetite in mega-cap tech and AI beneficiaries.
- DIA added approximately 0.5% versus its 490.80 prior close, showing participation from the industrial-heavy Dow.
- IWM gained roughly 0.7% from a 267.79 previous close, indicating small caps continue to ride the early-year momentum noted in recent commentary.
Sector performance was mixed but broadly constructive under the surface:
- Technology (XLK) outperformed, trading above its 143.81 prior close with about a 1.2% advance. This aligns with ongoing AI enthusiasm and several supportive analyst narratives in recent days, including constructive views on semiconductor momentum.
- Financials (XLF) rose roughly 0.5% versus the prior close, a move consistent with a steeper yield curve which can aid net interest margins for lenders.
- Utilities (the sector quote provided in the payload carries the XLU symbol) posted modest gains of about 0.5% versus its prior close, a defensive bid that often pairs with firm long-dated yields and geopolitical crosscurrents.
- Health care (XLV) lagged slightly, opening below its 158.26 prior close by roughly 0.3%.
Within single-name headlines, several themes are in focus. Chip leadership remains central: MarketWatch reported growing optimism around AMD’s momentum in AI data center CPUs and also noted Intel’s progress with its manufacturing business, with shares having recently approached multi-year highs ahead of earnings. On media and streaming, MarketWatch highlighted that Netflix remains under pressure as investors consider its guidance and a proposed Warner Bros. Discovery transaction. In China tech, Alibaba reportedly exploring an IPO of its T-Head AI chip unit was cited as a positive premarket catalyst. In industrials, MarketWatch flagged General Electric’s shares turning lower pre-open as revenue growth slows despite a broadly solid quarterly print. In consumer and retail, Lululemon drew scrutiny from founder commentary and product quality discussions, while Amazon’s CEO noted consumers are trading down as tariff-driven price pressures filter through, according to MarketWatch. Airlines are also in the spotlight: CNBC reported Spirit Airlines is in deal talks with Castlelake as the carrier seeks a path forward in bankruptcy, while United’s loyalty strategy was cited earlier in the week as a profit driver by MarketWatch.
Policy, trade, and earnings remain the next catalysts. CNBC’s morning setup noted easing geopolitical fears contributing to the bid; MarketWatch earlier pointed to calming market effects from commentary around Greenland in Davos. Still, Bloomberg reported the EU stands ready to respond to tariff threats, underlining that policy risk remains a two-way variable. Morgan Stanley highlighted potential pressure points for autos if memory chips tighten and commodities rise—another reminder of how supply-chain and input-cost dynamics can quickly filter into margins even as demand holds up. These threads will feed into sector dispersion through earnings season.
Bonds
Bond ETFs were slightly softer at the open, tracking the firm long-end yields:
- TLT ticked marginally below its 87.31 prior close.
- IEF also slipped, a touch under its 95.80 previous close.
- SHY eased a hair below 82.84.
The tone suggests investors are comfortable with higher term yields for now, after the earlier-week long-duration drawdown. With inflation expectations near 2.3%–2.6%, the bulk of the yield remains real or term-premium driven, keeping duration positioning tactical around headline risk.
Commodities
Precious metals remain firm amid the policy and geopolitical backdrop, with gold and silver maintaining a safe-haven bid:
- GLD traded modestly above its prior close of 443.60.
- SLV outperformed early, up close to 1% versus its 83.96 prior close. Notably, MarketWatch highlighted a contrarian view suggesting silver may have topped out, citing underperformance versus gold during recent risk episodes; that debate remains live, even as today’s tape shows silver catching up.
At the same time, MarketWatch reported that Goldman Sachs again boosted its gold target with new sources of demand identified, keeping the strategic conversation on bullion constructive.
Energy price action was mixed:
- USO opened below its 73.34 prior close by about 1.2%, indicating some relief in crude-linked benchmarks.
- UNG advanced sharply, up roughly 4.4% from a 13.64 prior close, highlighting ongoing volatility in natural gas.
- DBC was unchanged versus its prior close at the time of the snapshot, leaving the broad commodity basket flat.
FX and crypto
On the currency front, EURUSD’s mark price was modestly higher than its reported open, indicating a mild euro bid against the dollar in early trading. This follows earlier-week dollar weakness tied to policy uncertainty; today’s firmer equities and slightly higher euro point to an incremental risk-on lean and some unwinding of the “Sell America” impulse that flared earlier this week.
Crypto is softer on the session snapshot:
- Bitcoin’s mark price sat modestly below its reported open.
- Ether similarly traded below its open. The slight risk-off in digital assets contrasts with the bullish tone in equities and precious metals, suggesting crypto is not participating in the same “quality and duration” safety bid that has aided gold—or in the cyclical growth impulse lifting tech at the open.
Notable company and thematic developments
- Policy and trade: The EU signaled readiness to retaliate against tariff threats, keeping two-way risk alive even as this morning’s tone improves. A recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the mechanics of potential refunds also linger in the backdrop, with CNBC noting the timing could be drawn out—another axis of uncertainty for globally exposed sectors.
- AI and semiconductors: Momentum narratives around AMD and Intel remain supportive for the broader tech complex, a factor echoed in XLK’s early strength. Uber’s CEO advised investors to distinguish genuine AI adoption from “play-acting,” per MarketWatch, a timely reminder as AI narratives proliferate.
- Media and streaming: Netflix’s strategic ambitions continue to be debated after investors balked at guidance and acquisition headlines, according to MarketWatch.
- Consumer behavior: Amazon observed trade-down behavior as tariffs filter through pricing, per MarketWatch; that dynamic could favor staples and value-oriented brands while tempering certain discretionary categories.
- Corporate restructurings and deals: Berkshire’s potential exit from Kraft Heinz, reported by CNBC and MarketWatch, underscores portfolio repositioning and sector-specific challenges in packaged foods. Spirit’s talks with Castlelake signal ongoing consolidation pressures in airlines.
Overall market take
This morning’s advance looks like a re-risking balanced by caution in rate-sensitive pockets. Growth leadership in QQQ and XLK, support for small caps in IWM, and a bid for financials in XLF match a backdrop of firm growth, anchored long-run inflation expectations, and a steeper curve. Defensive utilities participating while health care lags signal that the regime is not a classic risk-on blowout; investors remain selective, mindful of policy and earnings risks. Precious metals staying firm while crude eases and natural gas spikes speaks to a market that is hedging geopolitical and policy uncertainty while recalibrating cyclical exposures.
What to watch next
- Data: Additional labor and inflation reads will test the “soft-landing” narrative implied by stable claims and anchored long-term expectations. Growth prints will help validate (or challenge) the resilience reflected in Q3’s 4.4% pace.
- Earnings: Semiconductors, software, and select consumer names will be key for confirming AI-driven demand, pricing power, and margin durability. Watch management guidance language on tariffs, input costs, and foreign demand.
- Policy: Any fresh developments around the U.S.–EU tariff dynamic and related legal timelines could move rates, FX, and sector leadership quickly. A constructive diplomatic track would help sustain today’s bid; renewed escalation would likely revive “risk-off/long-duration-off” pressures.
- Positioning and flows: The recent surge in metals, rotation signals into cyclicals and small caps, and a still-active debate around Big Tech’s valuation and earnings leverage will continue to shape factor performance in the weeks ahead.
Bottom line: At the open, risk assets leaned higher with tech and small caps at the front, supported by improved geopolitical tone and resilient macro underpinnings. Steep long-end yields kept financials firm, while precious metals held their safety premium. The tape remains sensitive to policy headlines and earnings guidance—near-term, that combination should keep dispersion elevated and selectivity rewarded.
Equities opened in the green on Thursday, continuing a rebound from earlier-week volatility as investors digested a steadier macro backdrop and a mix of corporate and policy headlines. At the cash open, broad index ETFs were higher versus Wednesday’s closes: SPY traded above its prior close, QQQ outperformed as growth regained footing, DIA advanced, and small caps via IWM also pushed higher. The early bid aligns with an improved tone around geopolitical risks noted by traders, even as the policy path remains fluid and data-dependent. CNBC highlighted that the S&P 500 advanced this morning as Wall Street cheered signs of easing geopolitical tensions, setting a constructive tone at the bell.
Macro context and rates
The rate backdrop remains a crucial driver. Treasury yields are elevated on the long end relative to the front end, with the most recent readings showing 2-year at 3.60%, 5-year at 3.86%, 10-year at 4.30%, and 30-year at 4.91%. The curve’s steepness from 2s to 10s and 30s—particularly the high 30-year yield—implies term premium and supply considerations remain in play, as does the policy uncertainty premium tied to trade rhetoric and global growth. Earlier this week, long duration endured a sharp selloff, with MarketWatch noting the Treasury market faced its worst day in six months as tariff risks re-emerged; that context helps explain why long-end yields remain firm.
On inflation, the latest published CPI level for December was 326.03 on the headline index and 331.86 on core, while model-based inflation expectations are anchored near 2.3%–2.6%: 1-year at 2.60%, 5-year at 2.33%, and 10-year at 2.32%. These expectations, sitting modestly above the Federal Reserve’s target but not unmoored, provide a backdrop where the Fed can remain data-dependent. Labor market signals this morning point to stability: MarketWatch highlights additional evidence of a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market from jobless claims, which tends to support soft-landing hopes. Meanwhile, growth momentum remains notable, with the economy reported to have grown 4.4% in Q3, driven by consumer spending and business investment. Together, resilient growth, a still-firm labor market, and contained longer-term inflation expectations set a backdrop for earnings to remain the near-term catalyst, while yields and policy remain the key risk toggles.
Equities: strong open with growth leadership
Index ETFs reflected constructive breadth at the open:
- SPY last traded above its previous close of 685.40, up roughly 0.6% on a price basis.
- QQQ led with an early gain of about 0.9% versus its 616.28 prior close, consistent with better risk appetite in mega-cap tech and AI beneficiaries.
- DIA added approximately 0.5% versus its 490.80 prior close, showing participation from the industrial-heavy Dow.
- IWM gained roughly 0.7% from a 267.79 previous close, indicating small caps continue to ride the early-year momentum noted in recent commentary.
Sector performance was mixed but broadly constructive under the surface:
- Technology (XLK) outperformed, trading above its 143.81 prior close with about a 1.2% advance. This aligns with ongoing AI enthusiasm and several supportive analyst narratives in recent days, including constructive views on semiconductor momentum.
- Financials (XLF) rose roughly 0.5% versus the prior close, a move consistent with a steeper yield curve which can aid net interest margins for lenders.
- Utilities (the sector quote provided in the payload carries the XLU symbol) posted modest gains of about 0.5% versus its prior close, a defensive bid that often pairs with firm long-dated yields and geopolitical crosscurrents.
- Health care (XLV) lagged slightly, opening below its 158.26 prior close by roughly 0.3%.
Within single-name headlines, several themes are in focus. Chip leadership remains central: MarketWatch reported growing optimism around AMD’s momentum in AI data center CPUs and also noted Intel’s progress with its manufacturing business, with shares having recently approached multi-year highs ahead of earnings. On media and streaming, MarketWatch highlighted that Netflix remains under pressure as investors consider its guidance and a proposed Warner Bros. Discovery transaction. In China tech, Alibaba reportedly exploring an IPO of its T-Head AI chip unit was cited as a positive premarket catalyst. In industrials, MarketWatch flagged General Electric’s shares turning lower pre-open as revenue growth slows despite a broadly solid quarterly print. In consumer and retail, Lululemon drew scrutiny from founder commentary and product quality discussions, while Amazon’s CEO noted consumers are trading down as tariff-driven price pressures filter through, according to MarketWatch. Airlines are also in the spotlight: CNBC reported Spirit Airlines is in deal talks with Castlelake as the carrier seeks a path forward in bankruptcy, while United’s loyalty strategy was cited earlier in the week as a profit driver by MarketWatch.
Policy, trade, and earnings remain the next catalysts. CNBC’s morning setup noted easing geopolitical fears contributing to the bid; MarketWatch earlier pointed to calming market effects from commentary around Greenland in Davos. Still, Bloomberg reported the EU stands ready to respond to tariff threats, underlining that policy risk remains a two-way variable. Morgan Stanley highlighted potential pressure points for autos if memory chips tighten and commodities rise—another reminder of how supply-chain and input-cost dynamics can quickly filter into margins even as demand holds up. These threads will feed into sector dispersion through earnings season.
Bonds
Bond ETFs were slightly softer at the open, tracking the firm long-end yields:
- TLT ticked marginally below its 87.31 prior close.
- IEF also slipped, a touch under its 95.80 previous close.
- SHY eased a hair below 82.84.
The tone suggests investors are comfortable with higher term yields for now, after the earlier-week long-duration drawdown. With inflation expectations near 2.3%–2.6%, the bulk of the yield remains real or term-premium driven, keeping duration positioning tactical around headline risk.
Commodities
Precious metals remain firm amid the policy and geopolitical backdrop, with gold and silver maintaining a safe-haven bid:
- GLD traded modestly above its prior close of 443.60.
- SLV outperformed early, up close to 1% versus its 83.96 prior close. Notably, MarketWatch highlighted a contrarian view suggesting silver may have topped out, citing underperformance versus gold during recent risk episodes; that debate remains live, even as today’s tape shows silver catching up.
At the same time, MarketWatch reported that Goldman Sachs again boosted its gold target with new sources of demand identified, keeping the strategic conversation on bullion constructive.
Energy price action was mixed:
- USO opened below its 73.34 prior close by about 1.2%, indicating some relief in crude-linked benchmarks.
- UNG advanced sharply, up roughly 4.4% from a 13.64 prior close, highlighting ongoing volatility in natural gas.
- DBC was unchanged versus its prior close at the time of the snapshot, leaving the broad commodity basket flat.
FX and crypto
On the currency front, EURUSD’s mark price was modestly higher than its reported open, indicating a mild euro bid against the dollar in early trading. This follows earlier-week dollar weakness tied to policy uncertainty; today’s firmer equities and slightly higher euro point to an incremental risk-on lean and some unwinding of the “Sell America” impulse that flared earlier this week.
Crypto is softer on the session snapshot:
- Bitcoin’s mark price sat modestly below its reported open.
- Ether similarly traded below its open. The slight risk-off in digital assets contrasts with the bullish tone in equities and precious metals, suggesting crypto is not participating in the same “quality and duration” safety bid that has aided gold—or in the cyclical growth impulse lifting tech at the open.
Notable company and thematic developments
- Policy and trade: The EU signaled readiness to retaliate against tariff threats, keeping two-way risk alive even as this morning’s tone improves. A recent Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the mechanics of potential refunds also linger in the backdrop, with CNBC noting the timing could be drawn out—another axis of uncertainty for globally exposed sectors.
- AI and semiconductors: Momentum narratives around AMD and Intel remain supportive for the broader tech complex, a factor echoed in XLK’s early strength. Uber’s CEO advised investors to distinguish genuine AI adoption from “play-acting,” per MarketWatch, a timely reminder as AI narratives proliferate.
- Media and streaming: Netflix’s strategic ambitions continue to be debated after investors balked at guidance and acquisition headlines, according to MarketWatch.
- Consumer behavior: Amazon observed trade-down behavior as tariffs filter through pricing, per MarketWatch; that dynamic could favor staples and value-oriented brands while tempering certain discretionary categories.
- Corporate restructurings and deals: Berkshire’s potential exit from Kraft Heinz, reported by CNBC and MarketWatch, underscores portfolio repositioning and sector-specific challenges in packaged foods. Spirit’s talks with Castlelake signal ongoing consolidation pressures in airlines.
Overall market take
This morning’s advance looks like a re-risking balanced by caution in rate-sensitive pockets. Growth leadership in QQQ and XLK, support for small caps in IWM, and a bid for financials in XLF match a backdrop of firm growth, anchored long-run inflation expectations, and a steeper curve. Defensive utilities participating while health care lags signal that the regime is not a classic risk-on blowout; investors remain selective, mindful of policy and earnings risks. Precious metals staying firm while crude eases and natural gas spikes speaks to a market that is hedging geopolitical and policy uncertainty while recalibrating cyclical exposures.
What to watch next
- Data: Additional labor and inflation reads will test the “soft-landing” narrative implied by stable claims and anchored long-term expectations. Growth prints will help validate (or challenge) the resilience reflected in Q3’s 4.4% pace.
- Earnings: Semiconductors, software, and select consumer names will be key for confirming AI-driven demand, pricing power, and margin durability. Watch management guidance language on tariffs, input costs, and foreign demand.
- Policy: Any fresh developments around the U.S.–EU tariff dynamic and related legal timelines could move rates, FX, and sector leadership quickly. A constructive diplomatic track would help sustain today’s bid; renewed escalation would likely revive “risk-off/long-duration-off” pressures.
- Positioning and flows: The recent surge in metals, rotation signals into cyclicals and small caps, and a still-active debate around Big Tech’s valuation and earnings leverage will continue to shape factor performance in the weeks ahead.
Bottom line: At the open, risk assets leaned higher with tech and small caps at the front, supported by improved geopolitical tone and resilient macro underpinnings. Steep long-end yields kept financials firm, while precious metals held their safety premium. The tape remains sensitive to policy headlines and earnings guidance—near-term, that combination should keep dispersion elevated and selectivity rewarded.