State of Market: Midday 12/24/25
Stocks grind higher into Christmas Eve; records in sight as bonds firm and metals cool
Equities broaden gains into the holiday, Treasurys catch a bid, and precious metals consolidate after a torrid run. Macro signals remain benign with subdued inflation expectations and steady long rates.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Midway through the holiday-shortened session, U.S. markets are leaning risk-on, with major equity benchmarks edging higher, rates steady-to-softer, and commodities mixed after an outsized pre-holiday surge in precious metals. Liquidity is characteristically thin, but price action is constructive across most assets as investors look to close the year on a strong note.
The tone aligns with reports that the S&P 500 has pressed to a Christmas Eve record for the first time in more than a decade, underscoring resilient risk appetite at year end. Seasonality adds a tailwind: one study highlighted that December 26 has historically been among the most reliably positive trading days of the year. While history is no guarantee, it helps frame the day’s modest bid as investors weigh lighter macro and corporate calendars against a steady stream of thematic headlines spanning AI, energy, and health care.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields into the holiday reflect a still-restrictive but easing stance at the front end and an anchored long end. As of December 22, the 2-year sat near 3.44%, the 5-year at 3.71%, the 10-year at 4.17%, and the 30-year at 4.84%. The curve profile is consistent with an economy that has cooled from midyear peaks but remains resilient.
On inflation, the latest CPI level for November printed at 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068 (index levels), while model-based inflation expectations for December sit at 3.20% for one year ahead, 2.42% for five years, and 2.34% for ten years. These expectations, hovering close to pre-pandemic norms for the 5–10 year horizon, support equity multiples and credit conditions by signaling that the market still anticipates longer-run price stability.
Recent data headlines also point to continued strength in the real economy. A delayed GDP report showed 4.3% annualized growth in the third quarter, the best in two years, driven by consumer spending. Meanwhile, jobless claims have fallen again and are now below last year’s pace, highlighting a labor market where layoffs remain scarce. Together, these inputs describe a soft-landing consensus: growth moderating from a strong base, disinflation continuing, and labor resilient—conditions that have historically been favorable for risk assets.
That said, a number of commentaries caution against complacency. Banks and strategists have highlighted potential macro “surprises” ahead, including policy shifts, growth scares, or renewed price pressures. One economist warned of a stagflationary period before reacceleration, and a commodity-focused view outlined preparations for a possible “second wave of inflation.” These concerns echo alongside signs of market calm: bond market volatility gauges have been signaling an “all-clear” for stocks, and the VIX is tracking toward year-end lows, a combination that usually supports risk-taking—until it doesn’t. The balance of the day’s trade reflects this dynamic tension: bullish underpinnings, tempered by a healthy awareness of risk.
Equities and sectors: breadth improves into the holiday
At midday, broad U.S. equity ETFs are modestly higher. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) last traded near 690.28 versus a prior close of 687.96, extending gains alongside headlines of a Christmas Eve record. In the growth-heavy cohort, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) last traded around 623.94, up from 622.11, as AI infrastructure and software narratives continue to dominate year-end positioning. The Dow proxy, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), is tracking around 486.97, above its 484.23 prior close, and small caps via iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are modestly firmer near 252.70 versus 252.08, suggesting improving breadth.
Under the hood, sector ETFs echo the broad-based grind higher. Financials (XLF) are up on the day versus the prior close (55.71 vs. 55.43), consistent with a supportive rate backdrop and a steadier growth view. Technology (XLK) is also firmer (146.31 vs. 145.95), backed by AI-related deal and infrastructure headlines, including Alphabet’s power-centric data center acquisition and ServiceNow’s cybersecurity expansion for AI control. Health care (XLV) trades higher (155.76 vs. 154.99), aided by ongoing weight-loss drug news flow. A sector entry labeled under XLE shows a positive change (42.82 vs. 42.62); despite a symbol labelling inconsistency in the feed, the provided quotes point to slight gains for that sector ETF bucket.
Company and thematic highlights from the tape and headlines reinforce the day’s tone. AI remains a central growth pillar: Alphabet’s $4.75 billion purchase of Intersect to secure power for data centers illustrates how energy availability is becoming a gating factor for compute expansion. ServiceNow’s $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis extends its footprint in cybersecurity with an eye toward building an “AI control tower.” On the semiconductor front, Nvidia continues to command attention; commentators describe the stock as “rumbling to life” and look ahead to 2026 catalysts around model upgrades and data center buildouts.
In health care, Novo Nordisk received approval for the first oral weight-loss drug, with reports noting a relief rally after a tougher year. The ripple effects for consumer behavior are considerable, with multiple pieces flagging changes in alcohol consumption and food purchasing patterns that could influence staples, beverages, and restaurants. Within consumer discretionary, Nike’s share weakness has extended to a record losing streak—even as an insider purchase from Apple’s CEO and a favorable analyst call offer a counterpoint—illustrating the push-pull investors face between near-term execution questions and longer-term brand confidence.
Media and telecom dealmaking also stays in focus. Commentators flagged new financing details in Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, underscoring how strategic combinations remain an outlet for value creation—or defense—amid shifting streaming economics. Elsewhere, space and defense themes attracted attention: Huntington Ingalls’ contract win for a new class of Navy frigate and renewed interest in satellite communications (with a Starlink rival touted) point to secular growth pockets outside of mega-cap tech.
Bonds: duration bid stabilizes financial conditions
Treasuries are supported into midday, with long-duration bond ETFs in the green. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) last traded around 88.02 versus 87.50 previously. The 7–10 year segment (IEF) is also higher (96.34 vs. 96.10), and the 1–3 year pocket (SHY) is modestly firmer (82.735 vs. 82.68). With the 10-year yield indicated near 4.17% as of December 22 and inflation expectations contained across the medium- and long-term horizons, the rate backdrop remains a tailwind for equity valuation support and credit spreads. Commentary highlighting a drop in bond market volatility further complements this mix; when rate swings calm, equity multiples often have room to expand.
Commodities: precious metals cool, energy mixed
After a powerful pre-holiday surge, precious metals are mixed. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is slightly lower on the session (411.93 vs. 413.64), while iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is higher (65.23 vs. 64.84). The move follows a flurry of views: some strategists caution that the run-up has become “unhinged,” while others argue the “great debasement” trade has resumed, with research houses now floating higher long-term targets for gold into 2026. Today’s consolidation fits a market that has discounted a benign inflation path yet still values portfolio hedges against policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
Energy is mixed. The United States Oil Fund (USO) is marginally softer (70.185 vs. 70.30), while the broad commodity basket (DBC) is essentially unchanged (22.635 vs. 22.64). Natural gas (UNG) is down on the day (12.395 vs. 12.90). The crosscurrents highlight a market weighing slowing growth impulses against supply dynamics and weather-driven demand. Policy decisions also matter at the margin; reports of an offshore wind project pause have stirred fresh questions about renewable timelines, even as AI’s power demand keeps electricity supply in the strategic spotlight.
FX and crypto: dollar watch, digital assets steady
On the currency side, EURUSD’s mark price is around 1.1774. A recent technical note pointed to a “golden cross” for the dollar index, suggesting potential stabilization after a difficult year. While the feed here does not include multi-session comparisons, the broader narrative implies limited FX volatility into the holiday.
Crypto prices are steady to slightly firmer intraday. Bitcoin’s mark is near 87,361, with a session range of roughly 86,315 to 87,633 against an open near 87,091. Ether’s mark is around 2,936 within a 2,886 to 2,953 band and an open around 2,934. This quiet tape contrasts with a year that, by some accounts, delivered regulatory and market structure wins without commensurate price performance. Looking ahead, the sector appears poised to watch for policy clarity and real-world adoption catalysts in 2026.
Notable single-name headlines
- Tesla: Facing fresh regulatory scrutiny over Model 3 door design, even as some commentary emphasizes the longer-term robotaxi opportunity despite slumping EV unit sales. This juxtaposition—near-term operational and legal questions versus far-horizon autonomy narratives—captures a broader 2025 theme of story stocks versus fundamentals.
- ServiceNow: The $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis expands its AI-era cybersecurity posture with ambitions to build an “AI control tower.”
- Alphabet: Acquiring Intersect for $4.75 billion highlights power constraints as a strategic bottleneck for AI data centers.
- Novo Nordisk: First approval for an oral weight-loss drug and a relief rally, with implications for health care and consumer ecosystems.
- Nike: Shares on pace to extend a record losing streak, tempered by insider buying and supportive sell-side views—illustrative of value-seeking amid execution uncertainty.
- Huntington Ingalls: Secures a Navy frigate contract, emblematic of persistent defense budget support.
- Media/streaming: Paramount’s bid financing update for Warner Bros. Discovery keeps consolidation front and center.
Risks and positioning
A cluster of market signals suggests near-term calm—subdued bond volatility, low equity volatility, contained inflation expectations, and firm growth data. However, the list of flagged risks is nontrivial: the prospect of policy surprises, renewed inflationary waves tied to commodities or power constraints, regulatory scrutiny of high-valuation leaders, and potential growth scares as AI investment cycles ebb and flow. Additionally, market structure in thin holiday trading can amplify moves.
What to watch next
- Seasonality: Attention turns to the post-Christmas session, which historically has skewed positive. Participation and breadth will be key tells.
- Macro: Continued monitoring of jobless claims trends and any incremental growth updates to validate or challenge soft-landing assumptions.
- Rates: With long-end yields anchored around 4.17% (10-year) and 4.84% (30-year), any shift in inflation expectations or term premium could quickly feed back into equity multiples.
- AI and power: Follow-through on data center capacity deals and energy availability—now a material variable for the AI investment cycle and tech sector earnings outlook.
- Metals: After strong gains, gold and silver face a test of momentum versus consolidation. ETF flows and positioning into year end will inform durability.
- Policy and regulation: Developments across EV safety inquiries, renewable project timelines, and crypto policy rhetoric could nudge sector dispersion.
Bottom line: Into midday on Christmas Eve, the market’s message is quietly bullish. Equities are inching higher with improving breadth, bonds are firmer, and metals are catching their breath. Macro expectations remain anchored, and while risks are ever-present, the current setup reflects a market comfortable with the soft-landing narrative as it heads into the final days of the year.
Midway through the holiday-shortened session, U.S. markets are leaning risk-on, with major equity benchmarks edging higher, rates steady-to-softer, and commodities mixed after an outsized pre-holiday surge in precious metals. Liquidity is characteristically thin, but price action is constructive across most assets as investors look to close the year on a strong note.
The tone aligns with reports that the S&P 500 has pressed to a Christmas Eve record for the first time in more than a decade, underscoring resilient risk appetite at year end. Seasonality adds a tailwind: one study highlighted that December 26 has historically been among the most reliably positive trading days of the year. While history is no guarantee, it helps frame the day’s modest bid as investors weigh lighter macro and corporate calendars against a steady stream of thematic headlines spanning AI, energy, and health care.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields into the holiday reflect a still-restrictive but easing stance at the front end and an anchored long end. As of December 22, the 2-year sat near 3.44%, the 5-year at 3.71%, the 10-year at 4.17%, and the 30-year at 4.84%. The curve profile is consistent with an economy that has cooled from midyear peaks but remains resilient.
On inflation, the latest CPI level for November printed at 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068 (index levels), while model-based inflation expectations for December sit at 3.20% for one year ahead, 2.42% for five years, and 2.34% for ten years. These expectations, hovering close to pre-pandemic norms for the 5–10 year horizon, support equity multiples and credit conditions by signaling that the market still anticipates longer-run price stability.
Recent data headlines also point to continued strength in the real economy. A delayed GDP report showed 4.3% annualized growth in the third quarter, the best in two years, driven by consumer spending. Meanwhile, jobless claims have fallen again and are now below last year’s pace, highlighting a labor market where layoffs remain scarce. Together, these inputs describe a soft-landing consensus: growth moderating from a strong base, disinflation continuing, and labor resilient—conditions that have historically been favorable for risk assets.
That said, a number of commentaries caution against complacency. Banks and strategists have highlighted potential macro “surprises” ahead, including policy shifts, growth scares, or renewed price pressures. One economist warned of a stagflationary period before reacceleration, and a commodity-focused view outlined preparations for a possible “second wave of inflation.” These concerns echo alongside signs of market calm: bond market volatility gauges have been signaling an “all-clear” for stocks, and the VIX is tracking toward year-end lows, a combination that usually supports risk-taking—until it doesn’t. The balance of the day’s trade reflects this dynamic tension: bullish underpinnings, tempered by a healthy awareness of risk.
Equities and sectors: breadth improves into the holiday
At midday, broad U.S. equity ETFs are modestly higher. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) last traded near 690.28 versus a prior close of 687.96, extending gains alongside headlines of a Christmas Eve record. In the growth-heavy cohort, Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) last traded around 623.94, up from 622.11, as AI infrastructure and software narratives continue to dominate year-end positioning. The Dow proxy, SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), is tracking around 486.97, above its 484.23 prior close, and small caps via iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are modestly firmer near 252.70 versus 252.08, suggesting improving breadth.
Under the hood, sector ETFs echo the broad-based grind higher. Financials (XLF) are up on the day versus the prior close (55.71 vs. 55.43), consistent with a supportive rate backdrop and a steadier growth view. Technology (XLK) is also firmer (146.31 vs. 145.95), backed by AI-related deal and infrastructure headlines, including Alphabet’s power-centric data center acquisition and ServiceNow’s cybersecurity expansion for AI control. Health care (XLV) trades higher (155.76 vs. 154.99), aided by ongoing weight-loss drug news flow. A sector entry labeled under XLE shows a positive change (42.82 vs. 42.62); despite a symbol labelling inconsistency in the feed, the provided quotes point to slight gains for that sector ETF bucket.
Company and thematic highlights from the tape and headlines reinforce the day’s tone. AI remains a central growth pillar: Alphabet’s $4.75 billion purchase of Intersect to secure power for data centers illustrates how energy availability is becoming a gating factor for compute expansion. ServiceNow’s $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis extends its footprint in cybersecurity with an eye toward building an “AI control tower.” On the semiconductor front, Nvidia continues to command attention; commentators describe the stock as “rumbling to life” and look ahead to 2026 catalysts around model upgrades and data center buildouts.
In health care, Novo Nordisk received approval for the first oral weight-loss drug, with reports noting a relief rally after a tougher year. The ripple effects for consumer behavior are considerable, with multiple pieces flagging changes in alcohol consumption and food purchasing patterns that could influence staples, beverages, and restaurants. Within consumer discretionary, Nike’s share weakness has extended to a record losing streak—even as an insider purchase from Apple’s CEO and a favorable analyst call offer a counterpoint—illustrating the push-pull investors face between near-term execution questions and longer-term brand confidence.
Media and telecom dealmaking also stays in focus. Commentators flagged new financing details in Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, underscoring how strategic combinations remain an outlet for value creation—or defense—amid shifting streaming economics. Elsewhere, space and defense themes attracted attention: Huntington Ingalls’ contract win for a new class of Navy frigate and renewed interest in satellite communications (with a Starlink rival touted) point to secular growth pockets outside of mega-cap tech.
Bonds: duration bid stabilizes financial conditions
Treasuries are supported into midday, with long-duration bond ETFs in the green. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) last traded around 88.02 versus 87.50 previously. The 7–10 year segment (IEF) is also higher (96.34 vs. 96.10), and the 1–3 year pocket (SHY) is modestly firmer (82.735 vs. 82.68). With the 10-year yield indicated near 4.17% as of December 22 and inflation expectations contained across the medium- and long-term horizons, the rate backdrop remains a tailwind for equity valuation support and credit spreads. Commentary highlighting a drop in bond market volatility further complements this mix; when rate swings calm, equity multiples often have room to expand.
Commodities: precious metals cool, energy mixed
After a powerful pre-holiday surge, precious metals are mixed. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is slightly lower on the session (411.93 vs. 413.64), while iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is higher (65.23 vs. 64.84). The move follows a flurry of views: some strategists caution that the run-up has become “unhinged,” while others argue the “great debasement” trade has resumed, with research houses now floating higher long-term targets for gold into 2026. Today’s consolidation fits a market that has discounted a benign inflation path yet still values portfolio hedges against policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
Energy is mixed. The United States Oil Fund (USO) is marginally softer (70.185 vs. 70.30), while the broad commodity basket (DBC) is essentially unchanged (22.635 vs. 22.64). Natural gas (UNG) is down on the day (12.395 vs. 12.90). The crosscurrents highlight a market weighing slowing growth impulses against supply dynamics and weather-driven demand. Policy decisions also matter at the margin; reports of an offshore wind project pause have stirred fresh questions about renewable timelines, even as AI’s power demand keeps electricity supply in the strategic spotlight.
FX and crypto: dollar watch, digital assets steady
On the currency side, EURUSD’s mark price is around 1.1774. A recent technical note pointed to a “golden cross” for the dollar index, suggesting potential stabilization after a difficult year. While the feed here does not include multi-session comparisons, the broader narrative implies limited FX volatility into the holiday.
Crypto prices are steady to slightly firmer intraday. Bitcoin’s mark is near 87,361, with a session range of roughly 86,315 to 87,633 against an open near 87,091. Ether’s mark is around 2,936 within a 2,886 to 2,953 band and an open around 2,934. This quiet tape contrasts with a year that, by some accounts, delivered regulatory and market structure wins without commensurate price performance. Looking ahead, the sector appears poised to watch for policy clarity and real-world adoption catalysts in 2026.
Notable single-name headlines
- Tesla: Facing fresh regulatory scrutiny over Model 3 door design, even as some commentary emphasizes the longer-term robotaxi opportunity despite slumping EV unit sales. This juxtaposition—near-term operational and legal questions versus far-horizon autonomy narratives—captures a broader 2025 theme of story stocks versus fundamentals.
- ServiceNow: The $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis expands its AI-era cybersecurity posture with ambitions to build an “AI control tower.”
- Alphabet: Acquiring Intersect for $4.75 billion highlights power constraints as a strategic bottleneck for AI data centers.
- Novo Nordisk: First approval for an oral weight-loss drug and a relief rally, with implications for health care and consumer ecosystems.
- Nike: Shares on pace to extend a record losing streak, tempered by insider buying and supportive sell-side views—illustrative of value-seeking amid execution uncertainty.
- Huntington Ingalls: Secures a Navy frigate contract, emblematic of persistent defense budget support.
- Media/streaming: Paramount’s bid financing update for Warner Bros. Discovery keeps consolidation front and center.
Risks and positioning
A cluster of market signals suggests near-term calm—subdued bond volatility, low equity volatility, contained inflation expectations, and firm growth data. However, the list of flagged risks is nontrivial: the prospect of policy surprises, renewed inflationary waves tied to commodities or power constraints, regulatory scrutiny of high-valuation leaders, and potential growth scares as AI investment cycles ebb and flow. Additionally, market structure in thin holiday trading can amplify moves.
What to watch next
- Seasonality: Attention turns to the post-Christmas session, which historically has skewed positive. Participation and breadth will be key tells.
- Macro: Continued monitoring of jobless claims trends and any incremental growth updates to validate or challenge soft-landing assumptions.
- Rates: With long-end yields anchored around 4.17% (10-year) and 4.84% (30-year), any shift in inflation expectations or term premium could quickly feed back into equity multiples.
- AI and power: Follow-through on data center capacity deals and energy availability—now a material variable for the AI investment cycle and tech sector earnings outlook.
- Metals: After strong gains, gold and silver face a test of momentum versus consolidation. ETF flows and positioning into year end will inform durability.
- Policy and regulation: Developments across EV safety inquiries, renewable project timelines, and crypto policy rhetoric could nudge sector dispersion.
Bottom line: Into midday on Christmas Eve, the market’s message is quietly bullish. Equities are inching higher with improving breadth, bonds are firmer, and metals are catching their breath. Macro expectations remain anchored, and while risks are ever-present, the current setup reflects a market comfortable with the soft-landing narrative as it heads into the final days of the year.