State of Market: Open 12/30/25
Stocks edge lower at the open as metals surge; bonds soften with long-end yields elevated
Year-end liquidity and policy crosscurrents frame a cautious start: financials firm, tech mixed, energy bid alongside oil; gold and silver extend recovery while Bitcoin and ether trade higher
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Opening overview
U.S. equities opened on a cautious note Tuesday as the final regular session of 2025 gets underway. Broad benchmarks are fractionally softer out of the gate: SPY is trading just below Monday’s close, QQQ is slightly lower, and DIA and IWM are also marginally in the red. Under the surface, sector leadership is mixed. Financials (XLF) are nudging higher at the open, technology (XLK) is a touch lower, energy (XLE) is firmer, and health care (XLV) is slightly weaker.
The early tone is shaped by a combination of holiday-thinned liquidity, a still-elevated long-end yield backdrop, and outsized moves in commodities. Precious metals are resuming their late-year climb after Monday’s pullback: GLD is notably higher versus the prior close and SLV is up sharply. Oil (USO) and U.S. natural gas (UNG) are both bid. In crypto, Bitcoin and ether are trading above their stated opens.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The most recent Treasury curve snapshot shows a still-steep long end relative to the front: the 2-year sits at approximately 3.46%, the 5-year at 3.68%, the 10-year at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 4.81% (as of 2025-12-26). Against that backdrop, long-duration bond proxies (TLT, IEF) are opening weaker versus Monday’s close, consistent with pressure from elevated longer-term rates, while short-duration (SHY) is little changed to slightly firmer.
On inflation, the latest reported CPI (November 2025) stands at 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068 (index levels). Forward-looking inflation expectations from the provided model (December 2025) indicate 1-year expectations around 3.20%, stepping down to 2.42% over five years, 2.34% over ten, and 2.44% at thirty—still consistent with the view that near-term price pressure remains above longer-run expectations, but that the medium-term anchor sits near the low-2s. That mix—sticky near-term but anchored medium-term—helps explain the current yield curve posture and the mild pressure on duration-sensitive assets at the open.
Policy watch and market tone
A pair of policy narratives from the news flow is also in focus. MarketWatch notes the Federal Reserve is in “hibernation,” with Tuesday potentially offering clues on how long it may remain patient. Separately, headlines about potential changes at the Fed’s leadership—“Trump eyes January for announcement of Powell replacement”—add an element of policy uncertainty for 2026. While neither headline carries specific timing or rate guidance, they underscore a transition environment in which markets will likely react quickly to any shift in perceived Fed reaction functions.
Equities: indices and sectors
- SPY opened fractionally below Monday’s close (last trade 687.32 vs. 687.85 prior close), signaling a modest consolidation after a strong year. QQQ is similarly soft (619.98 vs. 620.87 prior). DIA (484.16 vs. 484.59) and IWM (249.81 vs. 249.88) are both marginally lower.
- Sector ETFs show a rotational flavor: XLF is up slightly versus Monday’s close, consistent with a firmer long-end yield environment and a market bid for rate-sensitive financial earnings. XLK is fractionally down, as megacap and AI-related headlines continue but with limited price follow-through at the open. XLE is higher alongside firmer oil, while XLV is a touch softer.
Within megacap and thematic tech, several articles frame the 2026 setup:
- Apple: A MarketWatch piece flags “the sneaky factor” to watch—how well Apple can insulate itself from booming memory prices. While no price action is cited here, the theme speaks to margin management into 2026.
- Amazon: Another MarketWatch article asks what it will take for the stock to “finally take off” after trailing its peers in 2025, pointing to growth reacceleration potential in cloud, ads, and retail.
- Microsoft: MarketWatch highlights strong business momentum while noting the shares’ need for a narrative re-catalyst—potentially renewed focus on OpenAI and Nvidia ecosystems.
- AMD and Nvidia: MarketWatch outlines where AMD can gain AI ground next year; a separate headline notes Nvidia’s licensing deal with Groq and the addition of some executives, underscoring the evolving competitive landscape in accelerators and inference.
- Meta: “Meta acquisition is latest megacap tech bet on AI to finish the year,” reinforcing ongoing investment and M&A positioning into 2026.
- Broader AI trade: Pieces caution that 2026 could bring more volatility and a shift from “AI adjacency” to execution, notably for power and infrastructure names, as investors focus on who captures profits rather than top-line AI exposure alone.
These narratives collectively suggest a 2026 in which leadership broadens and the market differentiates between promise and delivered economics—aligned with this morning’s mixed XLK and steadier XLF prints.
Bonds: duration under pressure
- TLT trades below Monday’s close (last 87.76 vs. 88.07 prior), and IEF is similarly softer (96.45 vs. 96.58), echoing the weight of a 10-year around 4.14% and 30-year near 4.81% in the latest available yield snapshot. SHY is essentially flat to slightly higher (82.84 vs. 82.83), typical of front-end stability.
- For equity positioning, the mix of elevated long-end yields and anchored medium-term inflation expectations argues for continued selectivity: financials often benefit from a steeper curve and better net interest margins, while long-duration growth can remain sensitive to any uptick in discount rates.
Commodities: precious metals lead; energy firmer
- Gold and silver: GLD is trading meaningfully above Monday’s close (403.53 vs. 398.60 prior), while SLV is sharply higher (68.96 vs. 66.01 prior). CNBC notes silver “soars after tumbling on Monday,” capping a volatile year. MarketWatch aggregates views including a SocGen debate over whether silver is in a bubble, countered by analysts citing structural tailwinds and potential export restrictions that could tighten already-stretched physical markets. Another article highlights a hedge-fund veteran who was bullish earlier in the year but now warns of short-term risks into the New Year, and a separate strategist called the metals run “unhinged,” cautioning on near-term froth. This dispersion of views fits the current tape: pronounced momentum with elevated, two-sided risk around year-end positioning and tax-driven flows.
- Energy: USO is trading higher versus Monday’s close (70.26 vs. 69.61 prior) as oil extends gains. A Bloomberg report notes Ukraine said drones struck Russia’s largest gas processing plant—part of a series of energy-infrastructure headlines that can color sentiment in fuels. UNG is also higher (13.65 vs. 13.05 prior), reflecting strength in U.S. natural gas proxies. The broad commodity basket proxy DBC shows no change from Monday’s close in the latest update (22.49 vs. 22.49 prior), though live prints at the open are not yet reflected in that dataset.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD: The mark sits near 1.1756 in a very quiet print (volume shows 0 in the provided data). With no comparative prior level in the payload, directionality is inconclusive, but the pair is hovering in a tight range at the open.
- Bitcoin and ether: BTCUSD’s mark is above its stated open (approximately 87,979 vs. 87,196 open), and ETHUSD is also above its open (about 2,964 vs. 2,943 open). A MarketWatch article observes that despite favorable policy developments in 2025, digital asset prices struggled; attention now shifts to whether 2026 policy support can translate into sustained price performance. Early green prints today hint at constructive year-end positioning but do not yet alter the bigger 2025 drawdown context cited in the piece.
Notable movers and themes from news flow
- Silver remains a focal point with a wide range of strategist views—from bubble concerns to structural bull arguments—mirrored by SLV’s strong rebound this morning.
- AI leadership and capital allocation: Meta’s acquisition activity, Nvidia’s licensing deal with Groq, and AMD’s 2026 opportunity set highlight that the competitive race is intensifying. Complementary commentary suggests markets will increasingly reward realized economics (e.g., data center power providers) rather than broad AI adjacency.
- Policy and the Fed: “Hibernation” language and leadership speculation inject policy uncertainty into early 2026. Markets appear to be defaulting to a wait-and-see stance—consistent with today’s muted index moves and bond-market tone.
- Energy security tail risk: Headlines about strikes on Russian energy infrastructure underscore ongoing geopolitical risk premia embedded in oil and gas, aligning with today’s firmer USO and UNG.
- Autos: CNBC highlights GM’s standout 2025 performance relative to Tesla and peers; separate MarketWatch coverage points to Tesla’s regulatory scrutiny and its AI/robotaxi ambitions. No price data are provided for these names today, but the split narrative captures the dispersion within autos heading into 2026.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Policy communication: Any Fed-related remarks or minutes-style clues flagged in MarketWatch’s “hibernation” piece could sway front-end rate expectations and risk sentiment as 2026 begins.
- Year-end flows: Thin liquidity and tax-related positioning can amplify intraday swings, particularly in high-beta areas and in precious metals where positioning is extended.
- Metals volatility: Watch GLD and SLV for signs of exhaustion or follow-through. The interplay of structural demand narratives and near-term froth warnings points to potentially wider ranges in the first sessions of 2026.
- AI execution vs. narrative: As suggested by multiple articles, the market’s focus may shift to realized profitability across the AI stack—chips, software, and power infrastructure—which could drive relative performance dispersion within XLK and adjacent sectors.
- Yields vs. equities: With long-end yields still elevated in the latest snapshot, duration-sensitive equities may remain choppy. Moves in TLT/IEF versus the 10-year and 30-year yields will be a useful cross-check for equity rotations between growth and financials.
Risks
- Policy/leadership uncertainty at the Fed and the timing of any changes to the rate path.
- Liquidity risk around the turn of the year that can exacerbate price gaps.
- Metals market positioning: heightened risk of sharp reversals if profit-taking accelerates.
- Geopolitical shocks, particularly those affecting energy infrastructure and commodity supply chains.
- Execution risk in the AI complex: increased scrutiny on capex returns and monetization timelines could pressure high-valuation names if delivery lags.
- Regulatory scrutiny in autos and tech that could affect product roadmaps and sentiment.
Bottom line
The final opening bell of 2025 greets a market that is consolidating near highs with a cautious tone. Slightly softer index prints, a firmer financials tape, and bid commodities tell a story of elevated long-end yields, ongoing inflation discipline in expectations, and active year-end positioning. Precious metals remain the day’s standout, but the associated debate—bubble risk versus structural scarcity—highlights the two-sided risk as the calendar turns. Into 2026, the core questions are about execution: for AI leaders, for policy makers weighing price stability against growth, and for investors managing duration and commodity exposures as macro crosscurrents persist.
Opening overview
U.S. equities opened on a cautious note Tuesday as the final regular session of 2025 gets underway. Broad benchmarks are fractionally softer out of the gate: SPY is trading just below Monday’s close, QQQ is slightly lower, and DIA and IWM are also marginally in the red. Under the surface, sector leadership is mixed. Financials (XLF) are nudging higher at the open, technology (XLK) is a touch lower, energy (XLE) is firmer, and health care (XLV) is slightly weaker.
The early tone is shaped by a combination of holiday-thinned liquidity, a still-elevated long-end yield backdrop, and outsized moves in commodities. Precious metals are resuming their late-year climb after Monday’s pullback: GLD is notably higher versus the prior close and SLV is up sharply. Oil (USO) and U.S. natural gas (UNG) are both bid. In crypto, Bitcoin and ether are trading above their stated opens.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The most recent Treasury curve snapshot shows a still-steep long end relative to the front: the 2-year sits at approximately 3.46%, the 5-year at 3.68%, the 10-year at 4.14%, and the 30-year at 4.81% (as of 2025-12-26). Against that backdrop, long-duration bond proxies (TLT, IEF) are opening weaker versus Monday’s close, consistent with pressure from elevated longer-term rates, while short-duration (SHY) is little changed to slightly firmer.
On inflation, the latest reported CPI (November 2025) stands at 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068 (index levels). Forward-looking inflation expectations from the provided model (December 2025) indicate 1-year expectations around 3.20%, stepping down to 2.42% over five years, 2.34% over ten, and 2.44% at thirty—still consistent with the view that near-term price pressure remains above longer-run expectations, but that the medium-term anchor sits near the low-2s. That mix—sticky near-term but anchored medium-term—helps explain the current yield curve posture and the mild pressure on duration-sensitive assets at the open.
Policy watch and market tone
A pair of policy narratives from the news flow is also in focus. MarketWatch notes the Federal Reserve is in “hibernation,” with Tuesday potentially offering clues on how long it may remain patient. Separately, headlines about potential changes at the Fed’s leadership—“Trump eyes January for announcement of Powell replacement”—add an element of policy uncertainty for 2026. While neither headline carries specific timing or rate guidance, they underscore a transition environment in which markets will likely react quickly to any shift in perceived Fed reaction functions.
Equities: indices and sectors
- SPY opened fractionally below Monday’s close (last trade 687.32 vs. 687.85 prior close), signaling a modest consolidation after a strong year. QQQ is similarly soft (619.98 vs. 620.87 prior). DIA (484.16 vs. 484.59) and IWM (249.81 vs. 249.88) are both marginally lower.
- Sector ETFs show a rotational flavor: XLF is up slightly versus Monday’s close, consistent with a firmer long-end yield environment and a market bid for rate-sensitive financial earnings. XLK is fractionally down, as megacap and AI-related headlines continue but with limited price follow-through at the open. XLE is higher alongside firmer oil, while XLV is a touch softer.
Within megacap and thematic tech, several articles frame the 2026 setup:
- Apple: A MarketWatch piece flags “the sneaky factor” to watch—how well Apple can insulate itself from booming memory prices. While no price action is cited here, the theme speaks to margin management into 2026.
- Amazon: Another MarketWatch article asks what it will take for the stock to “finally take off” after trailing its peers in 2025, pointing to growth reacceleration potential in cloud, ads, and retail.
- Microsoft: MarketWatch highlights strong business momentum while noting the shares’ need for a narrative re-catalyst—potentially renewed focus on OpenAI and Nvidia ecosystems.
- AMD and Nvidia: MarketWatch outlines where AMD can gain AI ground next year; a separate headline notes Nvidia’s licensing deal with Groq and the addition of some executives, underscoring the evolving competitive landscape in accelerators and inference.
- Meta: “Meta acquisition is latest megacap tech bet on AI to finish the year,” reinforcing ongoing investment and M&A positioning into 2026.
- Broader AI trade: Pieces caution that 2026 could bring more volatility and a shift from “AI adjacency” to execution, notably for power and infrastructure names, as investors focus on who captures profits rather than top-line AI exposure alone.
These narratives collectively suggest a 2026 in which leadership broadens and the market differentiates between promise and delivered economics—aligned with this morning’s mixed XLK and steadier XLF prints.
Bonds: duration under pressure
- TLT trades below Monday’s close (last 87.76 vs. 88.07 prior), and IEF is similarly softer (96.45 vs. 96.58), echoing the weight of a 10-year around 4.14% and 30-year near 4.81% in the latest available yield snapshot. SHY is essentially flat to slightly higher (82.84 vs. 82.83), typical of front-end stability.
- For equity positioning, the mix of elevated long-end yields and anchored medium-term inflation expectations argues for continued selectivity: financials often benefit from a steeper curve and better net interest margins, while long-duration growth can remain sensitive to any uptick in discount rates.
Commodities: precious metals lead; energy firmer
- Gold and silver: GLD is trading meaningfully above Monday’s close (403.53 vs. 398.60 prior), while SLV is sharply higher (68.96 vs. 66.01 prior). CNBC notes silver “soars after tumbling on Monday,” capping a volatile year. MarketWatch aggregates views including a SocGen debate over whether silver is in a bubble, countered by analysts citing structural tailwinds and potential export restrictions that could tighten already-stretched physical markets. Another article highlights a hedge-fund veteran who was bullish earlier in the year but now warns of short-term risks into the New Year, and a separate strategist called the metals run “unhinged,” cautioning on near-term froth. This dispersion of views fits the current tape: pronounced momentum with elevated, two-sided risk around year-end positioning and tax-driven flows.
- Energy: USO is trading higher versus Monday’s close (70.26 vs. 69.61 prior) as oil extends gains. A Bloomberg report notes Ukraine said drones struck Russia’s largest gas processing plant—part of a series of energy-infrastructure headlines that can color sentiment in fuels. UNG is also higher (13.65 vs. 13.05 prior), reflecting strength in U.S. natural gas proxies. The broad commodity basket proxy DBC shows no change from Monday’s close in the latest update (22.49 vs. 22.49 prior), though live prints at the open are not yet reflected in that dataset.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD: The mark sits near 1.1756 in a very quiet print (volume shows 0 in the provided data). With no comparative prior level in the payload, directionality is inconclusive, but the pair is hovering in a tight range at the open.
- Bitcoin and ether: BTCUSD’s mark is above its stated open (approximately 87,979 vs. 87,196 open), and ETHUSD is also above its open (about 2,964 vs. 2,943 open). A MarketWatch article observes that despite favorable policy developments in 2025, digital asset prices struggled; attention now shifts to whether 2026 policy support can translate into sustained price performance. Early green prints today hint at constructive year-end positioning but do not yet alter the bigger 2025 drawdown context cited in the piece.
Notable movers and themes from news flow
- Silver remains a focal point with a wide range of strategist views—from bubble concerns to structural bull arguments—mirrored by SLV’s strong rebound this morning.
- AI leadership and capital allocation: Meta’s acquisition activity, Nvidia’s licensing deal with Groq, and AMD’s 2026 opportunity set highlight that the competitive race is intensifying. Complementary commentary suggests markets will increasingly reward realized economics (e.g., data center power providers) rather than broad AI adjacency.
- Policy and the Fed: “Hibernation” language and leadership speculation inject policy uncertainty into early 2026. Markets appear to be defaulting to a wait-and-see stance—consistent with today’s muted index moves and bond-market tone.
- Energy security tail risk: Headlines about strikes on Russian energy infrastructure underscore ongoing geopolitical risk premia embedded in oil and gas, aligning with today’s firmer USO and UNG.
- Autos: CNBC highlights GM’s standout 2025 performance relative to Tesla and peers; separate MarketWatch coverage points to Tesla’s regulatory scrutiny and its AI/robotaxi ambitions. No price data are provided for these names today, but the split narrative captures the dispersion within autos heading into 2026.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Policy communication: Any Fed-related remarks or minutes-style clues flagged in MarketWatch’s “hibernation” piece could sway front-end rate expectations and risk sentiment as 2026 begins.
- Year-end flows: Thin liquidity and tax-related positioning can amplify intraday swings, particularly in high-beta areas and in precious metals where positioning is extended.
- Metals volatility: Watch GLD and SLV for signs of exhaustion or follow-through. The interplay of structural demand narratives and near-term froth warnings points to potentially wider ranges in the first sessions of 2026.
- AI execution vs. narrative: As suggested by multiple articles, the market’s focus may shift to realized profitability across the AI stack—chips, software, and power infrastructure—which could drive relative performance dispersion within XLK and adjacent sectors.
- Yields vs. equities: With long-end yields still elevated in the latest snapshot, duration-sensitive equities may remain choppy. Moves in TLT/IEF versus the 10-year and 30-year yields will be a useful cross-check for equity rotations between growth and financials.
Risks
- Policy/leadership uncertainty at the Fed and the timing of any changes to the rate path.
- Liquidity risk around the turn of the year that can exacerbate price gaps.
- Metals market positioning: heightened risk of sharp reversals if profit-taking accelerates.
- Geopolitical shocks, particularly those affecting energy infrastructure and commodity supply chains.
- Execution risk in the AI complex: increased scrutiny on capex returns and monetization timelines could pressure high-valuation names if delivery lags.
- Regulatory scrutiny in autos and tech that could affect product roadmaps and sentiment.
Bottom line
The final opening bell of 2025 greets a market that is consolidating near highs with a cautious tone. Slightly softer index prints, a firmer financials tape, and bid commodities tell a story of elevated long-end yields, ongoing inflation discipline in expectations, and active year-end positioning. Precious metals remain the day’s standout, but the associated debate—bubble risk versus structural scarcity—highlights the two-sided risk as the calendar turns. Into 2026, the core questions are about execution: for AI leaders, for policy makers weighing price stability against growth, and for investors managing duration and commodity exposures as macro crosscurrents persist.