State of Market: Open 12/29/25
Stocks edge lower at the open as bonds firm; gold and silver retreat while oil gains
Final week of 2025 begins with modest equity softness, a bid for Treasurys, and divergent commodity moves amid an AI-heavy news flow and lingering year-end dynamics
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Overview
U.S. equities opened slightly lower to start the final, holiday-shortened trading week of 2025. The S&P 500 proxy SPY is down about 0.4% from Friday’s close, tech-heavy QQQ is off roughly 0.7%, and the Dow tracker DIA is down around 0.2%. Small caps via IWM are also lower by about 0.5%. The early tone reflects modest consolidation after a year of strong gains and a late-December “Santa Claus” seasonal tailwind that, per multiple reports, has been in place.
The macro backdrop remains orderly. Treasury yields, as last reported on December 22, show a 10-year at 4.17% and a 30-year at 4.84%, levels that are still well below peaks seen earlier in the year but above the lows of 2024. Inflation readings through November show headline CPI at 325.03 on the index level and core at 331.07, while modeled inflation expectations into December remain anchored in the 2%–3% range across horizons. Against that backdrop, bond ETFs are bid at the open, with long duration outperforming slightly.
Commodities are split. Precious metals are pulling back sharply after recent strength—GLD and SLV are both lower—while energy is firmer, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) up to start the session. Broad commodities (DBC) are modestly weaker. In FX, EURUSD is near 1.1773, fractionally softer from its indicated open, while crypto is lower with Bitcoin and Ether both under pressure relative to their opening marks.
Macro: Yields, inflation, expectations
Treasury yields as of December 22 are as follows: 2-year at 3.44%, 5-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.17%, and 30-year at 4.84%. The curve remains upward sloping from the 2-year to the 30-year, signaling an environment where term premium has normalized from the extremes of 2023–2024. While these figures are not today’s prints, they help contextualize the early-session strength in bond proxies—particularly as the long end is still priced with a relatively elevated real component versus pre-pandemic norms.
Inflation data through November show headline CPI at 325.031 and core CPI at 331.068 on index levels, indicating that while disinflation has progressed from 2022 peaks, price levels remain meaningfully higher than pre-2020 baselines. Inflation expectations modeled as of December are consistent with that cooling trend: 1-year at 3.20%, 5-year at 2.42%, 10-year at 2.34%, and 30-year at 2.44%. The term structure of expectations suggests markets are pricing a transition from near-term inflation somewhat above target toward longer-term outcomes near 2%–2.5%. That alignment—cooling realized inflation and anchored expectations—supports equity multiples and provides a tailwind for quality duration at the margin.
Equities and sectors
Major U.S. index ETFs are modestly lower at the open.
- SPY last trades at 687.37 versus a prior close of 690.31, off approximately 0.43%.
- QQQ is at 619.72 versus 623.89, down about 0.67%.
- DIA is at 485.99 versus 487.03, lower by roughly 0.21%.
- IWM is at 250.17 versus 251.42, down around 0.50%.
The sector snapshot we have shows a mild defensive-to-mixed pattern rather than a wholesale de-risking:
- XLK (Technology) is at 145.28 versus 146.53, down approximately 0.85%.
- XLF (Financials) is essentially flat at 55.61 versus 55.62.
- XLE (Energy) is fractionally positive at 42.80 versus 42.78.
- XLV (Health Care) is flat to slightly higher at 156.07 versus 156.05.
The early tilt—tech lagging while energy and health care hold steadier—fits with a modest rotation tone that has intermittently surfaced late in the year as investors rebalance gains and manage taxes. News flow over the weekend and into this morning is heavily AI-centric, spanning semiconductors, cloud hyperscalers, and cybersecurity. While that narrative has supported tech leadership in 2025, the first minutes of trade favor balance as participants digest year-end positioning and a wave of sector-specific headlines.
Bonds
Treasury proxies are bid at the open:
- TLT last prints at 87.97 versus 87.74 on Friday, up about 0.26%.
- IEF is at 96.54 versus 96.44, up about 0.10%.
- SHY is at 82.83 versus 82.79, up approximately 0.05%.
The firmness in duration is consistent with the December yield snapshot—10-year around 4.17%—and aligns with an inflation-expectations term structure clustered near 2.3%–2.4% beyond the 5-year horizon. With macro data later this week (details not provided), investors appear content to start the week with a modest duration bid, which also helps equity valuation math at the margin, particularly for cash-flow-dated growth exposures.
Commodities
The commodity complex is split to start the session.
- GLD is lower at 402.86 versus 416.74 on Friday, off roughly 3.33%.
- SLV is down to 65.36 from 71.12, a decline of about 8.10%.
- USO is higher at 69.82 versus 68.48, up approximately 1.96%.
- UNG is at 12.965 versus 12.81, up around 1.21%.
- DBC is modestly lower at 22.5595 versus 22.70, down roughly 0.62%.
The sharp pullback in precious metals follows a pre-holiday run-up highlighted in recent coverage and may reflect profit-taking into year-end alongside a firmer tone in real yields relative to mid-year. The metals move contrasts with energy, where both oil and natural gas are higher—an outcome that may reflect ongoing geopolitical sensitivity and seasonal dynamics. Notably, there are reports of fresh geopolitical disruption risks in the energy supply chain, which can feed into crude volatility, though today’s specific drivers are not detailed in the quotes we have. Broad commodities via DBC are a touch softer, consistent with the metals weakness offsetting gains in energy.
FX and crypto
In FX, the EURUSD pair marks around 1.1773, fractionally below its indicated open (1.1784). The dollar context beyond euro-dollar is not provided, so broader DXY inferences are not made here.
Crypto is weaker relative to session opens.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks 87,383.68 versus an open of 90,049.91, down about 2.96%.
- Ether (ETHUSD) marks 2,925.59 versus an open of 3,036.96, down about 3.67%.
The negative tone follows a 2025 in which, per reporting, the industry achieved policy and product milestones yet prices underperformed. The immediate drivers today are not specified, but the early-session softness adds to a cross-asset picture of consolidation as the calendar turns.
Notable news and themes
- Automakers: General Motors’ stock has had its best year since the company’s 2009 reemergence, outpacing both Tesla and Ford in 2025 performance, according to weekend reporting. Thematically, that underscores the year’s rotation within autos away from pure EV momentum toward diversified profitability and capital allocation narratives. Separate coverage notes that Tesla is facing fresh regulatory scrutiny related to its Model 3 doors even as investors remain focused on longer-term robotaxi ambitions and AI alignment. Both storylines highlight the dispersion within autos as 2026 begins.
- AI leadership and chips: Alphabet was cited as the top-performing “Magnificent Seven” stock this year, with debate about what it must do to sustain leadership. AMD’s 2026 roadmap—AI accelerators and its first rack-scale offering—remains a focal point for its competitive posture against Nvidia, while Nvidia itself features in multiple items: expectations into 2026, technical leadership implications for the broader market, and a licensing arrangement involving Groq alongside leadership changes at that startup. Microsoft’s operating strength is also highlighted, with a view that narrative factors tied to OpenAI and Nvidia could matter for incremental stock performance. The common thread: AI capex and execution remain the key investable factors into 2026.
- Cybersecurity consolidation: ServiceNow announced the acquisition of Armis for $7.75 billion, expanding further into cybersecurity with an “AI control tower” aspiration. The deal flow reinforces ongoing consolidation across security and IT operations as enterprises seek integrated AI-era governance, observability, and risk solutions.
- Seasonality and sentiment: Multiple pieces note the “Santa Claus rally” context and a low VIX into year-end, suggesting constructive sentiment but also the potential for complacency. That matches this morning’s slight equity softness amid otherwise calm macro conditions.
- Labor and the consumer: Jobless claims have fallen again and are below last year’s levels, consistent with still-healthy labor demand. At the same time, reporting spotlights affordability concerns and shifting consumption patterns (including rent trends in several cities), highlighting the “K-shaped” consumer that could shape sector winners and losers in early 2026.
- Precious metals debate: Coverage into year-end flagged both enthusiasm and caution around gold and silver after strong runs. Today’s pullback in GLD and SLV is consistent with profit-taking and year-end tax management dynamics discussed in several pieces.
- Geopolitics and energy: Reports of drone strikes against energy infrastructure underscore that geopolitical risks remain a potential source of volatility for crude. USO’s early strength contrasts with the metals’ decline and reinforces the need to watch supply headlines alongside demand data as 2026 begins.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Data and policy signals: There are macroeconomic updates later this week (specific releases not provided). With inflation expectations anchored near 2.3%–2.4% on 5–30 year horizons and the 10-year last at 4.17% (as of Dec. 22), incremental inflation or growth surprises could influence the gentle bid in Treasurys and factor leaders in equities.
- Sector leadership: Today’s opening mix—tech softer, energy and health care steadier—bears watching. If it persists, we could see a mild rotation theme as investors rebalance winners and reposition for 2026 AI “execution” over “promise.”
- Precious metals consolidation: After a sharp pre-holiday surge and this morning’s retracement, bullion may remain sensitive to real-rate expectations and flows around calendar effects.
- Crypto stabilization: With BTC and ETH opening softer versus their marks, watch for whether dip-buying emerges into the New Year or whether positioning continues to lighten.
- Corporate catalysts: AI and cybersecurity deal flow and product roadmaps remain central. Headlines around autos—particularly EV execution versus autonomy narratives—could drive dispersion within the group.
Risks
- Year-end liquidity and tax dynamics: Thin liquidity and tax-related selling/buying can amplify short-term moves, particularly in metals and high-beta tech.
- Policy and macro downside: An upside surprise in inflation or growth reacceleration that pushes longer yields higher could pressure duration and growth multiples.
- AI spending and execution: Multiple articles flag a transition from AI “gravy train” associations to tangible monetization in 2026. Disappointment on execution could challenge tech leadership.
- Geopolitical shocks: Energy infrastructure risks and broader geopolitical tensions can quickly affect crude and risk sentiment.
- Sentiment complacency: A low “fear gauge” noted into year-end raises the bar for positive surprises and leaves markets vulnerable to shocks.
Bottom line
The market opens the final week of 2025 in a consolidative stance: major indices are modestly lower, duration is bid, and commodities are split with energy firmer and precious metals correcting. Inflation expectations remain anchored and yields are steady versus December reference points, an environment that continues to support equities broadly while rewarding selectivity. The news flow is dominated by AI—chips, cloud, and cybersecurity—plus auto-sector dispersion and energy geopolitics. As 2026 approaches, the focus turns from AI association to AI execution, from seasonal tailwinds to fundamental catalysts, and from broad beta to factor and sector nuance. Staying nimble around year-end flow dynamics while watching incoming macro updates should serve investors well into the first days of the new year.
Overview
U.S. equities opened slightly lower to start the final, holiday-shortened trading week of 2025. The S&P 500 proxy SPY is down about 0.4% from Friday’s close, tech-heavy QQQ is off roughly 0.7%, and the Dow tracker DIA is down around 0.2%. Small caps via IWM are also lower by about 0.5%. The early tone reflects modest consolidation after a year of strong gains and a late-December “Santa Claus” seasonal tailwind that, per multiple reports, has been in place.
The macro backdrop remains orderly. Treasury yields, as last reported on December 22, show a 10-year at 4.17% and a 30-year at 4.84%, levels that are still well below peaks seen earlier in the year but above the lows of 2024. Inflation readings through November show headline CPI at 325.03 on the index level and core at 331.07, while modeled inflation expectations into December remain anchored in the 2%–3% range across horizons. Against that backdrop, bond ETFs are bid at the open, with long duration outperforming slightly.
Commodities are split. Precious metals are pulling back sharply after recent strength—GLD and SLV are both lower—while energy is firmer, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) up to start the session. Broad commodities (DBC) are modestly weaker. In FX, EURUSD is near 1.1773, fractionally softer from its indicated open, while crypto is lower with Bitcoin and Ether both under pressure relative to their opening marks.
Macro: Yields, inflation, expectations
Treasury yields as of December 22 are as follows: 2-year at 3.44%, 5-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.17%, and 30-year at 4.84%. The curve remains upward sloping from the 2-year to the 30-year, signaling an environment where term premium has normalized from the extremes of 2023–2024. While these figures are not today’s prints, they help contextualize the early-session strength in bond proxies—particularly as the long end is still priced with a relatively elevated real component versus pre-pandemic norms.
Inflation data through November show headline CPI at 325.031 and core CPI at 331.068 on index levels, indicating that while disinflation has progressed from 2022 peaks, price levels remain meaningfully higher than pre-2020 baselines. Inflation expectations modeled as of December are consistent with that cooling trend: 1-year at 3.20%, 5-year at 2.42%, 10-year at 2.34%, and 30-year at 2.44%. The term structure of expectations suggests markets are pricing a transition from near-term inflation somewhat above target toward longer-term outcomes near 2%–2.5%. That alignment—cooling realized inflation and anchored expectations—supports equity multiples and provides a tailwind for quality duration at the margin.
Equities and sectors
Major U.S. index ETFs are modestly lower at the open.
- SPY last trades at 687.37 versus a prior close of 690.31, off approximately 0.43%.
- QQQ is at 619.72 versus 623.89, down about 0.67%.
- DIA is at 485.99 versus 487.03, lower by roughly 0.21%.
- IWM is at 250.17 versus 251.42, down around 0.50%.
The sector snapshot we have shows a mild defensive-to-mixed pattern rather than a wholesale de-risking:
- XLK (Technology) is at 145.28 versus 146.53, down approximately 0.85%.
- XLF (Financials) is essentially flat at 55.61 versus 55.62.
- XLE (Energy) is fractionally positive at 42.80 versus 42.78.
- XLV (Health Care) is flat to slightly higher at 156.07 versus 156.05.
The early tilt—tech lagging while energy and health care hold steadier—fits with a modest rotation tone that has intermittently surfaced late in the year as investors rebalance gains and manage taxes. News flow over the weekend and into this morning is heavily AI-centric, spanning semiconductors, cloud hyperscalers, and cybersecurity. While that narrative has supported tech leadership in 2025, the first minutes of trade favor balance as participants digest year-end positioning and a wave of sector-specific headlines.
Bonds
Treasury proxies are bid at the open:
- TLT last prints at 87.97 versus 87.74 on Friday, up about 0.26%.
- IEF is at 96.54 versus 96.44, up about 0.10%.
- SHY is at 82.83 versus 82.79, up approximately 0.05%.
The firmness in duration is consistent with the December yield snapshot—10-year around 4.17%—and aligns with an inflation-expectations term structure clustered near 2.3%–2.4% beyond the 5-year horizon. With macro data later this week (details not provided), investors appear content to start the week with a modest duration bid, which also helps equity valuation math at the margin, particularly for cash-flow-dated growth exposures.
Commodities
The commodity complex is split to start the session.
- GLD is lower at 402.86 versus 416.74 on Friday, off roughly 3.33%.
- SLV is down to 65.36 from 71.12, a decline of about 8.10%.
- USO is higher at 69.82 versus 68.48, up approximately 1.96%.
- UNG is at 12.965 versus 12.81, up around 1.21%.
- DBC is modestly lower at 22.5595 versus 22.70, down roughly 0.62%.
The sharp pullback in precious metals follows a pre-holiday run-up highlighted in recent coverage and may reflect profit-taking into year-end alongside a firmer tone in real yields relative to mid-year. The metals move contrasts with energy, where both oil and natural gas are higher—an outcome that may reflect ongoing geopolitical sensitivity and seasonal dynamics. Notably, there are reports of fresh geopolitical disruption risks in the energy supply chain, which can feed into crude volatility, though today’s specific drivers are not detailed in the quotes we have. Broad commodities via DBC are a touch softer, consistent with the metals weakness offsetting gains in energy.
FX and crypto
In FX, the EURUSD pair marks around 1.1773, fractionally below its indicated open (1.1784). The dollar context beyond euro-dollar is not provided, so broader DXY inferences are not made here.
Crypto is weaker relative to session opens.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks 87,383.68 versus an open of 90,049.91, down about 2.96%.
- Ether (ETHUSD) marks 2,925.59 versus an open of 3,036.96, down about 3.67%.
The negative tone follows a 2025 in which, per reporting, the industry achieved policy and product milestones yet prices underperformed. The immediate drivers today are not specified, but the early-session softness adds to a cross-asset picture of consolidation as the calendar turns.
Notable news and themes
- Automakers: General Motors’ stock has had its best year since the company’s 2009 reemergence, outpacing both Tesla and Ford in 2025 performance, according to weekend reporting. Thematically, that underscores the year’s rotation within autos away from pure EV momentum toward diversified profitability and capital allocation narratives. Separate coverage notes that Tesla is facing fresh regulatory scrutiny related to its Model 3 doors even as investors remain focused on longer-term robotaxi ambitions and AI alignment. Both storylines highlight the dispersion within autos as 2026 begins.
- AI leadership and chips: Alphabet was cited as the top-performing “Magnificent Seven” stock this year, with debate about what it must do to sustain leadership. AMD’s 2026 roadmap—AI accelerators and its first rack-scale offering—remains a focal point for its competitive posture against Nvidia, while Nvidia itself features in multiple items: expectations into 2026, technical leadership implications for the broader market, and a licensing arrangement involving Groq alongside leadership changes at that startup. Microsoft’s operating strength is also highlighted, with a view that narrative factors tied to OpenAI and Nvidia could matter for incremental stock performance. The common thread: AI capex and execution remain the key investable factors into 2026.
- Cybersecurity consolidation: ServiceNow announced the acquisition of Armis for $7.75 billion, expanding further into cybersecurity with an “AI control tower” aspiration. The deal flow reinforces ongoing consolidation across security and IT operations as enterprises seek integrated AI-era governance, observability, and risk solutions.
- Seasonality and sentiment: Multiple pieces note the “Santa Claus rally” context and a low VIX into year-end, suggesting constructive sentiment but also the potential for complacency. That matches this morning’s slight equity softness amid otherwise calm macro conditions.
- Labor and the consumer: Jobless claims have fallen again and are below last year’s levels, consistent with still-healthy labor demand. At the same time, reporting spotlights affordability concerns and shifting consumption patterns (including rent trends in several cities), highlighting the “K-shaped” consumer that could shape sector winners and losers in early 2026.
- Precious metals debate: Coverage into year-end flagged both enthusiasm and caution around gold and silver after strong runs. Today’s pullback in GLD and SLV is consistent with profit-taking and year-end tax management dynamics discussed in several pieces.
- Geopolitics and energy: Reports of drone strikes against energy infrastructure underscore that geopolitical risks remain a potential source of volatility for crude. USO’s early strength contrasts with the metals’ decline and reinforces the need to watch supply headlines alongside demand data as 2026 begins.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Data and policy signals: There are macroeconomic updates later this week (specific releases not provided). With inflation expectations anchored near 2.3%–2.4% on 5–30 year horizons and the 10-year last at 4.17% (as of Dec. 22), incremental inflation or growth surprises could influence the gentle bid in Treasurys and factor leaders in equities.
- Sector leadership: Today’s opening mix—tech softer, energy and health care steadier—bears watching. If it persists, we could see a mild rotation theme as investors rebalance winners and reposition for 2026 AI “execution” over “promise.”
- Precious metals consolidation: After a sharp pre-holiday surge and this morning’s retracement, bullion may remain sensitive to real-rate expectations and flows around calendar effects.
- Crypto stabilization: With BTC and ETH opening softer versus their marks, watch for whether dip-buying emerges into the New Year or whether positioning continues to lighten.
- Corporate catalysts: AI and cybersecurity deal flow and product roadmaps remain central. Headlines around autos—particularly EV execution versus autonomy narratives—could drive dispersion within the group.
Risks
- Year-end liquidity and tax dynamics: Thin liquidity and tax-related selling/buying can amplify short-term moves, particularly in metals and high-beta tech.
- Policy and macro downside: An upside surprise in inflation or growth reacceleration that pushes longer yields higher could pressure duration and growth multiples.
- AI spending and execution: Multiple articles flag a transition from AI “gravy train” associations to tangible monetization in 2026. Disappointment on execution could challenge tech leadership.
- Geopolitical shocks: Energy infrastructure risks and broader geopolitical tensions can quickly affect crude and risk sentiment.
- Sentiment complacency: A low “fear gauge” noted into year-end raises the bar for positive surprises and leaves markets vulnerable to shocks.
Bottom line
The market opens the final week of 2025 in a consolidative stance: major indices are modestly lower, duration is bid, and commodities are split with energy firmer and precious metals correcting. Inflation expectations remain anchored and yields are steady versus December reference points, an environment that continues to support equities broadly while rewarding selectivity. The news flow is dominated by AI—chips, cloud, and cybersecurity—plus auto-sector dispersion and energy geopolitics. As 2026 approaches, the focus turns from AI association to AI execution, from seasonal tailwinds to fundamental catalysts, and from broad beta to factor and sector nuance. Staying nimble around year-end flow dynamics while watching incoming macro updates should serve investors well into the first days of the new year.