State of Market: Open 12/31/25
Stocks edge higher into the final trading day of 2025 as yields hold a positive slope and metals cool
S&P 500 and Nasdaq open slightly firmer; curve steepness and anchored long-run inflation expectations frame a cautious but constructive backdrop while silver and gold back off and oil firms
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Market Overview
U.S. equities opened the final session of 2025 steady to slightly higher, with large-cap, tech-heavy, and small-cap benchmarks all nudging above Tuesday’s closes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) last traded near 687.08 versus a previous close of 687.01, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was near 619.61 versus 619.43, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) printed 483.66 compared with 483.59, and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) traded around 248.21 versus 248.03. Early tone is calm, typical of a year-end session, but beneath the surface the macro setup—steeper Treasury yield curve, anchored medium-term inflation expectations, and mixed commodity signals—continues to shape sector leadership.
Macro Backdrop: Yields, Inflation, and Expectations
Treasury yields show a notably positive slope from front end to long end. The 2-year sits at 3.45%, the 5-year at 3.67%, the 10-year at 4.12%, and the 30-year at 4.80%. A 2s/10s profile that is positively sloped suggests the market is pricing a more normalized term structure into 2026, with growth and term premium expectations outweighing near-term policy rate risks. Anchored medium- and long-run inflation expectations help frame that view: model-based expectations are 3.20% at 1 year, 2.42% at 5 years, 2.34% at 10 years, and 2.44% at 30 years. The downward step from 1-year to 10-year horizons points to confidence that current price pressures can moderate toward the 2%–2.5% zone over time.
On realized inflation, the November headline CPI index stands at 325.031 and core CPI at 331.068 (data not seasonally parsed here). That level context, alongside the curve’s shape, is consistent with a market that sees restrictive real rates gradually easing as the economy downshifts from 2025’s pace without a break in trend growth.
Labor and policy headlines reinforce that interpretation. New filings for unemployment benefits declined for a third consecutive week, dipping below 200,000 and beating forecasts that centered on 220,000, according to MarketWatch reporting. That supports the “steady labor market” narrative and implies wage and spending resilience into early 2026. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve minutes suggest policy rates could remain on hold “for some time,” allowing officials to assess the impact of three cuts already delivered this year. Together, those developments argue for patience from policymakers and a benign macro setting for risk assets so long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
Equities and Sectors
Across the benchmarks, the modestly positive open is broad-based but incremental. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all sit just above Tuesday’s closes, indicating no dramatic shifts at the bell. Within sectors, the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) is firmer, last around 145.64 versus a prior close of 145.41, reflecting continued market preference for secular growth and AI-enabled winners. Financials via XLF are essentially flat-to-up, last near 55.19 versus 55.18, a reasonable outcome given the yield curve’s positive slope that can support net interest margins over time. Healthcare (XLV) is a touch softer at 155.61 versus 155.68.
While the sector feed shows an “XLE” entry with a symbol label of “XLU,” the last trade there is essentially unchanged to slightly higher versus the prior close. Given that labeling ambiguity in the feed, we won’t ascribe sector-level conclusions from that line item, but we note that the broader commodity complex (see below) and curve dynamics often play materially into both energy and utilities leadership.
Company and thematic news flow remains active into year-end. CNBC reports Nike shares moved higher after significant insider buying by CEO Elliott Hill and director Tim Cook, a potential confidence signal after a challenging year for the retailer. In tech, articles point to big-cap AI positioning, with MarketWatch highlighting a year-end acquisition by Meta as part of a flurry of large-cap transactions to sharpen AI capabilities; and separate commentary outlining what it may take for Microsoft and Alphabet to sustain leadership, as well as where AMD could gain ground in accelerators during 2026. A MarketWatch piece notes Tesla issued a pessimistic fourth-quarter sales outlook, an EV-specific headwind that investors will weigh against broader AI and cloud momentum elsewhere in the mega-cap complex.
Bonds
Treasury proxies are softer this morning, tracking the modestly higher-yield tone. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) last traded near 87.69 compared with 87.86 on Tuesday, while the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) is around 96.34 versus 96.48. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) sits essentially flat at 82.84 versus 82.85. The combination of a positive 2s/10s slope and slight pressure on duration-sensitive ETFs suggests the market is balancing better growth carry at the long end with still-contained inflation expectations. If expectations remain centered near 2.3%–2.4% at the 5- to 10-year horizon, as today’s models indicate, that should help stabilize real rates and leave room for equities to digest higher nominal yields.
Commodities
The precious metals complex is consolidating after a dramatic year. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is a bit lower at 398.41 versus 398.89. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is under more pressure at 65.49 versus 68.98, retracing part of its powerful 2025 advance amid volatile year-end flows and recent margin-related dynamics referenced in several reports. MarketWatch notes that silver, gold, and copper have trounced stocks this year, and CNBC observes silver soaring again yesterday after a sharp selloff, underscoring the crosscurrents in positioning. Bloomberg also highlights silver stabilizing near the $73 spot level after a 9% plunge, consistent with the consolidation narrative.
Beyond positioning, policy and trade are part of the metals story. MarketWatch flags that China may introduce measures affecting silver from January 1, with potential implications for supply availability to Big Tech, AI, and solar—sectors that depend on conductive materials. At the same time, SocGen commentary cited by MarketWatch debates whether silver is in a bubble, juxtaposing model signals with analyst views that emphasize longer-term structural demand tailwinds. For equities, this mix argues for caution around metals-exposed sub-industries while recognizing that on-shoring and grid/renewable investments could provide secular support to certain industrial and utility names over a multi-year horizon.
Energy shows a firmer tone at the open through the United States Oil Fund (USO), last around 70.19 versus 69.74, aided by ongoing supply and trade reshufflings. Bloomberg reports Russian oil flows to India have diminished following sanctions-related adjustments, with the path forward hinging on large private buyers. Such shifts tend to inject episodic volatility into crude, with ripple effects across refiners, transport, and petrochemicals. Natural gas is softer, with the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) around 12.59 versus 13.12.
Broader commodities via DBC last traded 22.64 on Tuesday, with live bid-ask slightly below that mark; we’ll await fresh prints for directional confirmation today.
FX and Crypto
In foreign exchange, EURUSD’s mark price sits near 1.1742. With no prior-day comparator in the feed, we characterize the session tone as neutral at the open. The curve’s positive slope alongside anchored long-run inflation expectations is, in general, consistent with a dollar that trades more on growth and risk sentiment differentials than on “policy surprise” factors into early 2026.
Crypto opens with a modestly constructive tone. Bitcoin’s BTCUSD mark is about 88,777 versus a reported open price near 88,241, and Ether’s ETHUSD mark is near 3,003 versus an open around 2,966. These are incremental gains that track with a stabilization narrative after a volatile year in digital assets, as some companies reassess balance sheet exposure to tokens and investors calibrate between spot ETF adoption, rate paths, and risk appetite.
Notable Corporate and Thematic Headlines
- Labor: Jobless claims fell for a third straight week to below 200,000, signaling steady labor conditions and supporting consumer resilience into 2026 (MarketWatch).
- Policy: Fed minutes indicate policy rates could be on hold “for some time” following three cuts this year, affording time to assess cumulative effects (MarketWatch).
- Retail: Nike shares moved higher after insider purchases by CEO Elliott Hill and director Tim Cook, a vote of confidence late in a difficult year for the company (CNBC).
- Autos/EVs: Tesla guided cautiously on fourth-quarter sales, with 2025 deliveries referenced below prior years; investors will parse impacts on EV supply chains and demand (MarketWatch).
- AI/Tech deal flow: Large-cap tech continues to position via acquisitions to advance AI capabilities (MarketWatch), while outlook pieces examine leadership sustainability for Alphabet and Microsoft, and potential 2026 share gains for AMD in AI accelerators (MarketWatch).
- Metals: Multiple outlets highlighted silver’s outsized 2025 swings and potential policy inflection on January 1 in China that could affect silver markets (MarketWatch, CNBC, Bloomberg).
Outlook: What to Watch Next
- Follow-through on the curve. A 2s/10s slope that remains positive into early January would bolster the case for Financials and cyclicals to participate alongside Tech in the next leg of the rally.
- Metals policy updates. Any formal confirmation of Chinese measures affecting silver could alter supply perceptions quickly; monitor SLV and related mining equities for spillovers.
- Labor resilience. After three weekly declines, the next jobless claims print will test whether sub-200,000 readings persist into the new year, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.
- AI positioning and capital spending. Year-end big-cap AI transactions signal continued investment. Watch for 2026 guidance from platform and semiconductor leaders on accelerator roadmaps and power/infra costs, as highlighted in recent articles.
- Energy trade flows. Evolving Russian exports to India and global refining patterns could affect USO and downstream industries; volatility around sanctions and shipping continues to be a driver.
- Crypto tone. With BTCUSD and ETHUSD opening above their reported daily opens, watch whether spot demand broadens or stalls into the first week of 2026.
Risks
- Policy uncertainty. Headlines around potential changes at the Fed leadership level and the timing of policy updates could introduce rate volatility.
- Commodity shocks. Silver market policy changes and ongoing oil trade reroutes present the risk of abrupt price spikes or air pockets that bleed into equities.
- Growth disappointment. If the labor market softens abruptly after the holidays, earnings expectations for cyclicals and small caps could be vulnerable.
- AI execution risk. As several commentaries note, investors will increasingly demand proof of monetization; under-delivery could compress multiples in AI beneficiaries.
- Liquidity and positioning. Year-end and early-January rebalancing can magnify moves in thin conditions, particularly across duration proxies and metals.
Bottom Line
The opening tape is incrementally risk-on—SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all slightly above Tuesday’s levels—with a macro backdrop defined by a positively sloped curve, contained medium-term inflation expectations, and consolidating precious metals. Tech leadership remains intact at the open via XLK, Financials are stable in the context of a friendlier curve, and Healthcare is modestly softer. TLT and IEF are easing as yields tick higher, while USO is firmer and UNG softer. News flow into the year’s close stays active—steadiest in labor, cautious in certain EV segments, and opportunistic in AI—setting up a 2026 in which execution and cash flows will likely matter more than simple exposure to thematic currents. For today, absent a catalyst, the path of least resistance remains a quiet drift into year-end with eyes on early January data, policy clarity, and any updates on metals trade policy that might sway the commodity complex and related equities.
Market Overview
U.S. equities opened the final session of 2025 steady to slightly higher, with large-cap, tech-heavy, and small-cap benchmarks all nudging above Tuesday’s closes. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) last traded near 687.08 versus a previous close of 687.01, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was near 619.61 versus 619.43, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) printed 483.66 compared with 483.59, and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) traded around 248.21 versus 248.03. Early tone is calm, typical of a year-end session, but beneath the surface the macro setup—steeper Treasury yield curve, anchored medium-term inflation expectations, and mixed commodity signals—continues to shape sector leadership.
Macro Backdrop: Yields, Inflation, and Expectations
Treasury yields show a notably positive slope from front end to long end. The 2-year sits at 3.45%, the 5-year at 3.67%, the 10-year at 4.12%, and the 30-year at 4.80%. A 2s/10s profile that is positively sloped suggests the market is pricing a more normalized term structure into 2026, with growth and term premium expectations outweighing near-term policy rate risks. Anchored medium- and long-run inflation expectations help frame that view: model-based expectations are 3.20% at 1 year, 2.42% at 5 years, 2.34% at 10 years, and 2.44% at 30 years. The downward step from 1-year to 10-year horizons points to confidence that current price pressures can moderate toward the 2%–2.5% zone over time.
On realized inflation, the November headline CPI index stands at 325.031 and core CPI at 331.068 (data not seasonally parsed here). That level context, alongside the curve’s shape, is consistent with a market that sees restrictive real rates gradually easing as the economy downshifts from 2025’s pace without a break in trend growth.
Labor and policy headlines reinforce that interpretation. New filings for unemployment benefits declined for a third consecutive week, dipping below 200,000 and beating forecasts that centered on 220,000, according to MarketWatch reporting. That supports the “steady labor market” narrative and implies wage and spending resilience into early 2026. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve minutes suggest policy rates could remain on hold “for some time,” allowing officials to assess the impact of three cuts already delivered this year. Together, those developments argue for patience from policymakers and a benign macro setting for risk assets so long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
Equities and Sectors
Across the benchmarks, the modestly positive open is broad-based but incremental. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all sit just above Tuesday’s closes, indicating no dramatic shifts at the bell. Within sectors, the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) is firmer, last around 145.64 versus a prior close of 145.41, reflecting continued market preference for secular growth and AI-enabled winners. Financials via XLF are essentially flat-to-up, last near 55.19 versus 55.18, a reasonable outcome given the yield curve’s positive slope that can support net interest margins over time. Healthcare (XLV) is a touch softer at 155.61 versus 155.68.
While the sector feed shows an “XLE” entry with a symbol label of “XLU,” the last trade there is essentially unchanged to slightly higher versus the prior close. Given that labeling ambiguity in the feed, we won’t ascribe sector-level conclusions from that line item, but we note that the broader commodity complex (see below) and curve dynamics often play materially into both energy and utilities leadership.
Company and thematic news flow remains active into year-end. CNBC reports Nike shares moved higher after significant insider buying by CEO Elliott Hill and director Tim Cook, a potential confidence signal after a challenging year for the retailer. In tech, articles point to big-cap AI positioning, with MarketWatch highlighting a year-end acquisition by Meta as part of a flurry of large-cap transactions to sharpen AI capabilities; and separate commentary outlining what it may take for Microsoft and Alphabet to sustain leadership, as well as where AMD could gain ground in accelerators during 2026. A MarketWatch piece notes Tesla issued a pessimistic fourth-quarter sales outlook, an EV-specific headwind that investors will weigh against broader AI and cloud momentum elsewhere in the mega-cap complex.
Bonds
Treasury proxies are softer this morning, tracking the modestly higher-yield tone. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) last traded near 87.69 compared with 87.86 on Tuesday, while the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) is around 96.34 versus 96.48. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) sits essentially flat at 82.84 versus 82.85. The combination of a positive 2s/10s slope and slight pressure on duration-sensitive ETFs suggests the market is balancing better growth carry at the long end with still-contained inflation expectations. If expectations remain centered near 2.3%–2.4% at the 5- to 10-year horizon, as today’s models indicate, that should help stabilize real rates and leave room for equities to digest higher nominal yields.
Commodities
The precious metals complex is consolidating after a dramatic year. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is a bit lower at 398.41 versus 398.89. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is under more pressure at 65.49 versus 68.98, retracing part of its powerful 2025 advance amid volatile year-end flows and recent margin-related dynamics referenced in several reports. MarketWatch notes that silver, gold, and copper have trounced stocks this year, and CNBC observes silver soaring again yesterday after a sharp selloff, underscoring the crosscurrents in positioning. Bloomberg also highlights silver stabilizing near the $73 spot level after a 9% plunge, consistent with the consolidation narrative.
Beyond positioning, policy and trade are part of the metals story. MarketWatch flags that China may introduce measures affecting silver from January 1, with potential implications for supply availability to Big Tech, AI, and solar—sectors that depend on conductive materials. At the same time, SocGen commentary cited by MarketWatch debates whether silver is in a bubble, juxtaposing model signals with analyst views that emphasize longer-term structural demand tailwinds. For equities, this mix argues for caution around metals-exposed sub-industries while recognizing that on-shoring and grid/renewable investments could provide secular support to certain industrial and utility names over a multi-year horizon.
Energy shows a firmer tone at the open through the United States Oil Fund (USO), last around 70.19 versus 69.74, aided by ongoing supply and trade reshufflings. Bloomberg reports Russian oil flows to India have diminished following sanctions-related adjustments, with the path forward hinging on large private buyers. Such shifts tend to inject episodic volatility into crude, with ripple effects across refiners, transport, and petrochemicals. Natural gas is softer, with the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) around 12.59 versus 13.12.
Broader commodities via DBC last traded 22.64 on Tuesday, with live bid-ask slightly below that mark; we’ll await fresh prints for directional confirmation today.
FX and Crypto
In foreign exchange, EURUSD’s mark price sits near 1.1742. With no prior-day comparator in the feed, we characterize the session tone as neutral at the open. The curve’s positive slope alongside anchored long-run inflation expectations is, in general, consistent with a dollar that trades more on growth and risk sentiment differentials than on “policy surprise” factors into early 2026.
Crypto opens with a modestly constructive tone. Bitcoin’s BTCUSD mark is about 88,777 versus a reported open price near 88,241, and Ether’s ETHUSD mark is near 3,003 versus an open around 2,966. These are incremental gains that track with a stabilization narrative after a volatile year in digital assets, as some companies reassess balance sheet exposure to tokens and investors calibrate between spot ETF adoption, rate paths, and risk appetite.
Notable Corporate and Thematic Headlines
- Labor: Jobless claims fell for a third straight week to below 200,000, signaling steady labor conditions and supporting consumer resilience into 2026 (MarketWatch).
- Policy: Fed minutes indicate policy rates could be on hold “for some time” following three cuts this year, affording time to assess cumulative effects (MarketWatch).
- Retail: Nike shares moved higher after insider purchases by CEO Elliott Hill and director Tim Cook, a vote of confidence late in a difficult year for the company (CNBC).
- Autos/EVs: Tesla guided cautiously on fourth-quarter sales, with 2025 deliveries referenced below prior years; investors will parse impacts on EV supply chains and demand (MarketWatch).
- AI/Tech deal flow: Large-cap tech continues to position via acquisitions to advance AI capabilities (MarketWatch), while outlook pieces examine leadership sustainability for Alphabet and Microsoft, and potential 2026 share gains for AMD in AI accelerators (MarketWatch).
- Metals: Multiple outlets highlighted silver’s outsized 2025 swings and potential policy inflection on January 1 in China that could affect silver markets (MarketWatch, CNBC, Bloomberg).
Outlook: What to Watch Next
- Follow-through on the curve. A 2s/10s slope that remains positive into early January would bolster the case for Financials and cyclicals to participate alongside Tech in the next leg of the rally.
- Metals policy updates. Any formal confirmation of Chinese measures affecting silver could alter supply perceptions quickly; monitor SLV and related mining equities for spillovers.
- Labor resilience. After three weekly declines, the next jobless claims print will test whether sub-200,000 readings persist into the new year, reinforcing the soft-landing narrative.
- AI positioning and capital spending. Year-end big-cap AI transactions signal continued investment. Watch for 2026 guidance from platform and semiconductor leaders on accelerator roadmaps and power/infra costs, as highlighted in recent articles.
- Energy trade flows. Evolving Russian exports to India and global refining patterns could affect USO and downstream industries; volatility around sanctions and shipping continues to be a driver.
- Crypto tone. With BTCUSD and ETHUSD opening above their reported daily opens, watch whether spot demand broadens or stalls into the first week of 2026.
Risks
- Policy uncertainty. Headlines around potential changes at the Fed leadership level and the timing of policy updates could introduce rate volatility.
- Commodity shocks. Silver market policy changes and ongoing oil trade reroutes present the risk of abrupt price spikes or air pockets that bleed into equities.
- Growth disappointment. If the labor market softens abruptly after the holidays, earnings expectations for cyclicals and small caps could be vulnerable.
- AI execution risk. As several commentaries note, investors will increasingly demand proof of monetization; under-delivery could compress multiples in AI beneficiaries.
- Liquidity and positioning. Year-end and early-January rebalancing can magnify moves in thin conditions, particularly across duration proxies and metals.
Bottom Line
The opening tape is incrementally risk-on—SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all slightly above Tuesday’s levels—with a macro backdrop defined by a positively sloped curve, contained medium-term inflation expectations, and consolidating precious metals. Tech leadership remains intact at the open via XLK, Financials are stable in the context of a friendlier curve, and Healthcare is modestly softer. TLT and IEF are easing as yields tick higher, while USO is firmer and UNG softer. News flow into the year’s close stays active—steadiest in labor, cautious in certain EV segments, and opportunistic in AI—setting up a 2026 in which execution and cash flows will likely matter more than simple exposure to thematic currents. For today, absent a catalyst, the path of least resistance remains a quiet drift into year-end with eyes on early January data, policy clarity, and any updates on metals trade policy that might sway the commodity complex and related equities.