State of Market: Midday 12/23/25
Stocks edge higher at midday as metals surge; yields steady and curve re-steepens
Large caps (SPY, QQQ, DIA) are modestly green while small caps lag; gold and silver extend gains. A firm 4.3% Q3 GDP print and anchored long-term inflation expectations frame the macro, with the 10-year near 4.16%.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Midway through Tuesday’s session, U.S. equities are leaning higher into the holiday-shortened week, with gains led by large-cap benchmarks and a notable bid in precious metals. At 1:30 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 proxy SPY trades near 687.56, up roughly 0.4% versus Monday’s close at 684.83. The Nasdaq-100 tracker QQQ sits around 621.19, about 0.3% above its prior close, and the Dow proxy DIA changes hands near 484.99, up approximately 0.3% on the day. Small caps, however, are lagging: the Russell 2000 ETF IWM is down about 0.4% at 252.59 against a 253.58 prior close, reflecting mixed breadth beneath the surface.
The macro backdrop today combines firm growth signals with a steady, though not falling, rate environment. A delayed report showed the U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, stronger than expected and the biggest gain in two years, according to reporting in both CNBC and MarketWatch. That strength was attributed in part to solid consumer spending, even as several articles highlight ongoing divergences between what consumers say about the economy and how they are spending. For markets, the key is that growth has proven resilient into year-end, setting the stage for investors to weigh momentum into 2026 while monitoring how the rate and inflation picture evolves.
On inflation, the latest available data show the November all-items CPI index at 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068. Without month-on-month or year-on-year changes provided in today’s dataset, markets are instead looking to inflation expectations as a cleaner read on the direction of travel. December model-based expectations sit at 3.20% for one-year, 2.42% for five-year, and 2.34% for ten-year horizons. The combination—short-run still elevated but longer horizons anchored near the mid-2s—suggests investors continue to price an eventual return toward the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone over the medium term, even if near-term disinflation is not linear.
Treasury yields remain a central input. The curve today shows 2-year at roughly 3.48%, 5-year at 3.70%, 10-year at 4.16%, and 30-year at 4.82%. Two dynamics stand out: first, the 10-year remains well above the 2-year, continuing a de-inversion that has been developing; second, the long end (30-year) carries a notable term premium relative to the 10-year. For equities, that mix often tilts factor leadership toward cash-flow-stable large caps rather than more rate-sensitive smaller names, which is consistent with today’s split between the big benchmarks and IWM. In credit and duration proxies, the picture is subdued: the long-duration TLT is modestly higher midday, while intermediate IEF and short-duration SHY are fractionally softer, consistent with a slight steepening of the curve.
Equities and sectors
- SPY: Approximately +0.4% at 687.56 versus 684.83 prior close. The tape is constructive but not euphoric into midday, typical of thin pre-holiday conditions.
- QQQ: Around +0.3% at 621.19 versus 619.21, underscoring continued investor preference for megacap growth and AI-linked franchises.
- DIA: Roughly +0.3% at 484.99 versus 483.46, with blue chips pacing the broader market.
- IWM: About -0.4% at 252.59 versus 253.58, indicative of more selective risk appetite beneath the headline indices.
Across sectors, participation is selective:
- XLK (Technology) is modestly positive at 145.55 versus 145.16 prior close. Headlines in the enterprise software and AI stack remain active. ServiceNow’s agreement to acquire Armis for $7.75 billion expands its reach into cybersecurity as it pursues an “AI control tower,” according to MarketWatch. While we do not have a real-time quote for ServiceNow here, the thematic tie to security spending and AI orchestration adds support to tech risk appetite captured by XLK’s midday gains.
- XLF (Financials) is up around 0.4% at 55.53 versus 55.32. A re-steepening curve can be a modest tailwind for net interest margins over time, though moves today are marginal.
- XLV (Health Care) is fractionally softer at 155.17 versus 155.30. Notably, MarketWatch reports that Novo Nordisk’s oral weight-loss drug secured approval and the stock jumped, but sector performance is mixed intraday, underscoring single-name dispersion and the balance between GLP-1 growth narratives and broader managed-care, biotech, and tools dynamics.
Select company headlines frame today’s tone. MarketWatch notes that Tesla’s EV sales have continued to decline, but investor focus remains on robotaxis—an example of how secular optionality can overshadow near-term unit trends in market leadership names, which are heavily represented within QQQ. Meanwhile, policy remains a swing factor in the energy complex: MarketWatch highlights a pause on offshore wind projects, potentially lengthening timelines and injecting uncertainty for certain renewables developers and their supply chains. Those headlines arrive as commodity-linked ETFs catch a broad bid, which we discuss below.
Bonds and rates
Treasury ETFs are quiet, aligning with the contained moves in the curve levels cited above. TLT last trades near 87.51, up around 0.17% from 87.36; IEF is marginally lower at 96.11 versus 96.14; and SHY is fractionally softer at 82.68 versus 82.72. This mix—long end up, belly and front end slightly down—maps to a mild steepening impulse and is consistent with a market that is digesting strong Q3 growth while expecting inflation to converge lower over multi-year horizons. The interplay between medium-term anchored inflation expectations and still-elevated 10-year yields near 4.16% keeps the equity risk premium debate front and center, especially for longer-duration growth assets.
Commodities
A notable feature of today’s session is the outperformance of precious metals and a broader firming across the commodity complex:
- GLD (gold) trades around 411.60, up roughly 0.8% from 408.23. CNBC reports gold and silver have been notching fresh highs for a second straight day, with some investors citing ongoing macro hedging demand.
- SLV (silver) is stronger, up about 3.0% to 64.34 from 62.47, extending the outperformance trend in beta metals when gold advances.
- USO (oil) is up roughly 0.6% at 70.14 versus 69.73. While we don’t have spot crude quotes in this payload, the move suggests steady support into year-end as growth data remain firm.
- UNG (natural gas) is up approximately 6.6% to 12.63 from 11.85, a sizable daily gain in an inherently volatile contract.
- DBC (broad commodities) edges up around 0.8% to 22.57 from 22.39, consistent with a day of generalized commodity strength.
The combination of firm growth (per the 4.3% Q3 GDP print) and metals strength invites debate about the balance between reflation and hedging flows. With long-term inflation expectations anchored in the mid-2s, today’s metals rally likely reflects a blend of macro hedging, diversification demand, and idiosyncratic drivers rather than a wholesale change in the inflation outlook embedded in rates.
FX and crypto
On the currency side, EURUSD is quoted near 1.1774 and is essentially unchanged versus its noted session open in this dataset, which was around 1.1773. Without broader DXY context in the payload, we simply observe a stable dollar-euro rate intraday.
Crypto is mixed. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks near 87,770 versus an open around 87,871, essentially flat to fractionally lower on the session. Ether (ETHUSD) is softer, near 2,938 against a 2,982 session open, down roughly 1.5%. The divergence underscores a continued differentiation across crypto assets as year-end liquidity thins.
Notable movers and corporate developments from articles
- U.S. GDP: CNBC and MarketWatch both highlight that a delayed government report showed 4.3% annualized Q3 growth, driven by consumer strength. That print supports risk assets at the margin and aligns with the mild bid in cyclically sensitive commodities.
- Precious metals: CNBC notes gold and silver have set fresh highs for a second day, reflected in GLD and SLV’s outperformance today.
- Technology and AI security: MarketWatch reports ServiceNow will acquire Armis for $7.75 billion, deepening exposure to cybersecurity and framing AI-era governance as a spending priority—helpful context for XLK’s positive tone.
- Autos and autonomy: MarketWatch points out Tesla’s unit sales pressure persists, but investor focus is on robotaxi potential. That’s illustrative for QQQ leadership resilience despite mixed cyclical signals.
- Health care innovation: MarketWatch reports an FDA approval for Novo Nordisk’s oral weight-loss pill, with shares rising on the headline. XLV is only fractionally lower, highlighting that single-name moves can be masked in diversified sector baskets.
- Energy policy: MarketWatch highlights a White House pause on offshore wind projects, introducing uncertainty for certain renewable buildouts. While we don’t have direct utility or renewables ETF quotes here, policy risk remains a consideration for capital allocation in the energy transition value chain.
Outlook: what to watch next
As the holiday-shortened week progresses, the focus will remain on participation and leadership under a steady-rate regime. Key items we are watching:
- Follow-through in breadth: whether today’s large-cap leadership broadens to small caps (IWM) into the final sessions of the year.
- Rates into year-end: the 10-year near 4.16% and the shape of the 2s–10s curve; sustained re-steepening could re-rate financials (XLF) relative to higher-duration equities.
- Metals momentum: GLD and SLV leadership and whether broad commodities (DBC) confirm the bid, especially with UNG’s outsized daily move.
- Sector catalysts: integration and spending signals around AI and cybersecurity following the ServiceNow–Armis deal; how that narrative influences XLK.
- Consumer durability: with 4.3% Q3 growth anchored by spending, any late-December reads on consumer behavior will matter for positioning in discretionary vs. staples, even though we do not have those sector ETFs in today’s quotes.
Risks
- Growth downshift: The strong Q3 print may not be repeated in Q4 given prior disruptions; any softening could narrow the path for earnings resilience.
- Rate volatility: A renewed rise in long-end yields would pressure duration-sensitive assets and could weigh on QQQ and parts of SPY.
- Policy and regulatory uncertainty: The offshore wind pause illustrates headline risk for the energy transition; similar shifts could alter capital spending plans across sectors.
- Commodity shocks: Rapid gains in natural gas or oil could tighten financial conditions and complicate the disinflation narrative even as medium-term expectations stay anchored.
- Liquidity and seasonality: Thin year-end liquidity can amplify moves in both directions, potentially exaggerating intraday swings and causing false breakouts/breakdowns.
Bottom line
Today’s midday tape reflects a market balancing constructive growth data with a still-elevated but stable rate environment. Large caps are modestly higher, small caps lag, and metals are leading with conviction. Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 5- to 10-year horizons, which helps risk assets absorb a 10-year yield around 4.16% without derailing the year-end tone. Into the final sessions of 2025, participation breadth, rates, and commodities will set the tone for whether a late “Santa Claus” lift materializes or year-end positioning keeps returns range-bound.
Midway through Tuesday’s session, U.S. equities are leaning higher into the holiday-shortened week, with gains led by large-cap benchmarks and a notable bid in precious metals. At 1:30 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 proxy SPY trades near 687.56, up roughly 0.4% versus Monday’s close at 684.83. The Nasdaq-100 tracker QQQ sits around 621.19, about 0.3% above its prior close, and the Dow proxy DIA changes hands near 484.99, up approximately 0.3% on the day. Small caps, however, are lagging: the Russell 2000 ETF IWM is down about 0.4% at 252.59 against a 253.58 prior close, reflecting mixed breadth beneath the surface.
The macro backdrop today combines firm growth signals with a steady, though not falling, rate environment. A delayed report showed the U.S. economy grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter, stronger than expected and the biggest gain in two years, according to reporting in both CNBC and MarketWatch. That strength was attributed in part to solid consumer spending, even as several articles highlight ongoing divergences between what consumers say about the economy and how they are spending. For markets, the key is that growth has proven resilient into year-end, setting the stage for investors to weigh momentum into 2026 while monitoring how the rate and inflation picture evolves.
On inflation, the latest available data show the November all-items CPI index at 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068. Without month-on-month or year-on-year changes provided in today’s dataset, markets are instead looking to inflation expectations as a cleaner read on the direction of travel. December model-based expectations sit at 3.20% for one-year, 2.42% for five-year, and 2.34% for ten-year horizons. The combination—short-run still elevated but longer horizons anchored near the mid-2s—suggests investors continue to price an eventual return toward the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone over the medium term, even if near-term disinflation is not linear.
Treasury yields remain a central input. The curve today shows 2-year at roughly 3.48%, 5-year at 3.70%, 10-year at 4.16%, and 30-year at 4.82%. Two dynamics stand out: first, the 10-year remains well above the 2-year, continuing a de-inversion that has been developing; second, the long end (30-year) carries a notable term premium relative to the 10-year. For equities, that mix often tilts factor leadership toward cash-flow-stable large caps rather than more rate-sensitive smaller names, which is consistent with today’s split between the big benchmarks and IWM. In credit and duration proxies, the picture is subdued: the long-duration TLT is modestly higher midday, while intermediate IEF and short-duration SHY are fractionally softer, consistent with a slight steepening of the curve.
Equities and sectors
- SPY: Approximately +0.4% at 687.56 versus 684.83 prior close. The tape is constructive but not euphoric into midday, typical of thin pre-holiday conditions.
- QQQ: Around +0.3% at 621.19 versus 619.21, underscoring continued investor preference for megacap growth and AI-linked franchises.
- DIA: Roughly +0.3% at 484.99 versus 483.46, with blue chips pacing the broader market.
- IWM: About -0.4% at 252.59 versus 253.58, indicative of more selective risk appetite beneath the headline indices.
Across sectors, participation is selective:
- XLK (Technology) is modestly positive at 145.55 versus 145.16 prior close. Headlines in the enterprise software and AI stack remain active. ServiceNow’s agreement to acquire Armis for $7.75 billion expands its reach into cybersecurity as it pursues an “AI control tower,” according to MarketWatch. While we do not have a real-time quote for ServiceNow here, the thematic tie to security spending and AI orchestration adds support to tech risk appetite captured by XLK’s midday gains.
- XLF (Financials) is up around 0.4% at 55.53 versus 55.32. A re-steepening curve can be a modest tailwind for net interest margins over time, though moves today are marginal.
- XLV (Health Care) is fractionally softer at 155.17 versus 155.30. Notably, MarketWatch reports that Novo Nordisk’s oral weight-loss drug secured approval and the stock jumped, but sector performance is mixed intraday, underscoring single-name dispersion and the balance between GLP-1 growth narratives and broader managed-care, biotech, and tools dynamics.
Select company headlines frame today’s tone. MarketWatch notes that Tesla’s EV sales have continued to decline, but investor focus remains on robotaxis—an example of how secular optionality can overshadow near-term unit trends in market leadership names, which are heavily represented within QQQ. Meanwhile, policy remains a swing factor in the energy complex: MarketWatch highlights a pause on offshore wind projects, potentially lengthening timelines and injecting uncertainty for certain renewables developers and their supply chains. Those headlines arrive as commodity-linked ETFs catch a broad bid, which we discuss below.
Bonds and rates
Treasury ETFs are quiet, aligning with the contained moves in the curve levels cited above. TLT last trades near 87.51, up around 0.17% from 87.36; IEF is marginally lower at 96.11 versus 96.14; and SHY is fractionally softer at 82.68 versus 82.72. This mix—long end up, belly and front end slightly down—maps to a mild steepening impulse and is consistent with a market that is digesting strong Q3 growth while expecting inflation to converge lower over multi-year horizons. The interplay between medium-term anchored inflation expectations and still-elevated 10-year yields near 4.16% keeps the equity risk premium debate front and center, especially for longer-duration growth assets.
Commodities
A notable feature of today’s session is the outperformance of precious metals and a broader firming across the commodity complex:
- GLD (gold) trades around 411.60, up roughly 0.8% from 408.23. CNBC reports gold and silver have been notching fresh highs for a second straight day, with some investors citing ongoing macro hedging demand.
- SLV (silver) is stronger, up about 3.0% to 64.34 from 62.47, extending the outperformance trend in beta metals when gold advances.
- USO (oil) is up roughly 0.6% at 70.14 versus 69.73. While we don’t have spot crude quotes in this payload, the move suggests steady support into year-end as growth data remain firm.
- UNG (natural gas) is up approximately 6.6% to 12.63 from 11.85, a sizable daily gain in an inherently volatile contract.
- DBC (broad commodities) edges up around 0.8% to 22.57 from 22.39, consistent with a day of generalized commodity strength.
The combination of firm growth (per the 4.3% Q3 GDP print) and metals strength invites debate about the balance between reflation and hedging flows. With long-term inflation expectations anchored in the mid-2s, today’s metals rally likely reflects a blend of macro hedging, diversification demand, and idiosyncratic drivers rather than a wholesale change in the inflation outlook embedded in rates.
FX and crypto
On the currency side, EURUSD is quoted near 1.1774 and is essentially unchanged versus its noted session open in this dataset, which was around 1.1773. Without broader DXY context in the payload, we simply observe a stable dollar-euro rate intraday.
Crypto is mixed. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks near 87,770 versus an open around 87,871, essentially flat to fractionally lower on the session. Ether (ETHUSD) is softer, near 2,938 against a 2,982 session open, down roughly 1.5%. The divergence underscores a continued differentiation across crypto assets as year-end liquidity thins.
Notable movers and corporate developments from articles
- U.S. GDP: CNBC and MarketWatch both highlight that a delayed government report showed 4.3% annualized Q3 growth, driven by consumer strength. That print supports risk assets at the margin and aligns with the mild bid in cyclically sensitive commodities.
- Precious metals: CNBC notes gold and silver have set fresh highs for a second day, reflected in GLD and SLV’s outperformance today.
- Technology and AI security: MarketWatch reports ServiceNow will acquire Armis for $7.75 billion, deepening exposure to cybersecurity and framing AI-era governance as a spending priority—helpful context for XLK’s positive tone.
- Autos and autonomy: MarketWatch points out Tesla’s unit sales pressure persists, but investor focus is on robotaxi potential. That’s illustrative for QQQ leadership resilience despite mixed cyclical signals.
- Health care innovation: MarketWatch reports an FDA approval for Novo Nordisk’s oral weight-loss pill, with shares rising on the headline. XLV is only fractionally lower, highlighting that single-name moves can be masked in diversified sector baskets.
- Energy policy: MarketWatch highlights a White House pause on offshore wind projects, introducing uncertainty for certain renewable buildouts. While we don’t have direct utility or renewables ETF quotes here, policy risk remains a consideration for capital allocation in the energy transition value chain.
Outlook: what to watch next
As the holiday-shortened week progresses, the focus will remain on participation and leadership under a steady-rate regime. Key items we are watching:
- Follow-through in breadth: whether today’s large-cap leadership broadens to small caps (IWM) into the final sessions of the year.
- Rates into year-end: the 10-year near 4.16% and the shape of the 2s–10s curve; sustained re-steepening could re-rate financials (XLF) relative to higher-duration equities.
- Metals momentum: GLD and SLV leadership and whether broad commodities (DBC) confirm the bid, especially with UNG’s outsized daily move.
- Sector catalysts: integration and spending signals around AI and cybersecurity following the ServiceNow–Armis deal; how that narrative influences XLK.
- Consumer durability: with 4.3% Q3 growth anchored by spending, any late-December reads on consumer behavior will matter for positioning in discretionary vs. staples, even though we do not have those sector ETFs in today’s quotes.
Risks
- Growth downshift: The strong Q3 print may not be repeated in Q4 given prior disruptions; any softening could narrow the path for earnings resilience.
- Rate volatility: A renewed rise in long-end yields would pressure duration-sensitive assets and could weigh on QQQ and parts of SPY.
- Policy and regulatory uncertainty: The offshore wind pause illustrates headline risk for the energy transition; similar shifts could alter capital spending plans across sectors.
- Commodity shocks: Rapid gains in natural gas or oil could tighten financial conditions and complicate the disinflation narrative even as medium-term expectations stay anchored.
- Liquidity and seasonality: Thin year-end liquidity can amplify moves in both directions, potentially exaggerating intraday swings and causing false breakouts/breakdowns.
Bottom line
Today’s midday tape reflects a market balancing constructive growth data with a still-elevated but stable rate environment. Large caps are modestly higher, small caps lag, and metals are leading with conviction. Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 5- to 10-year horizons, which helps risk assets absorb a 10-year yield around 4.16% without derailing the year-end tone. Into the final sessions of 2025, participation breadth, rates, and commodities will set the tone for whether a late “Santa Claus” lift materializes or year-end positioning keeps returns range-bound.