State of Market: Close 01/13/26
Stocks ease into the close as policy headlines and earnings crosscurrents temper risk appetite; bonds firm and commodities diverge
Financials lag amid card-routing and rate-cap chatter; tech edges lower despite steady AI news flow; silver and oil advance while gold dips; CPI and tariff rulings now in focus
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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U.S. equities faded into the close on Tuesday, with the major index ETFs ending modestly below their prior settlements and leadership tilting away from financials. At the close, SPY last traded at 693.75 compared with a previous close of 695.16, QQQ at 626.13 versus 627.17, DIA at 491.90 versus 495.90, and IWM at 261.35 versus 261.50. Sector performance reflected ongoing policy and earnings crosscurrents: financials, technology, and health care each finished lower, while the bond complex firmed and commodities delivered a mixed signal—silver and oil advanced as gold slipped. Against this market backdrop, investors weighed a heavy news flow spanning the Federal Reserve’s independence, credit-card regulation, energy geopolitics, airline updates, and another round of AI-centric company narratives.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury market levels remain anchored near last week’s marks, with the curve showing a clear upslope from front-end to long-end based on the most recent available data. As of January 9, the 2-year yield stood at 3.54%, the 5-year at 3.75%, the 10-year at 4.18%, and the 30-year at 4.82%. With the 10-year yield above the 2-year by roughly 64 basis points in that snapshot, investors continue to monitor whether a prospective steepening is signaling incremental confidence in growth or simply compensation for term risk amid policy uncertainty. The CPI index level most recently published (November) stands at 325.031, with core CPI at 331.068; while those are index levels rather than growth rates, upcoming inflation prints will be crucial for gauging momentum.
Inflation expectations point to a notable gap between short- and long-term views. Model-based 1-year expectations sit near 3.20%, while market-based 5-year expectations are around 2.28% and 10-year at approximately 2.24%. That profile—elevated near-term and anchored longer-term—helps explain why rate-sensitive assets continue to trade tactically around data and policy headlines. Bond ETFs reflected a mild bid today: TLT last traded at 87.795 compared with 87.67 previously, IEF at 96.29 versus 96.18, and SHY at 82.86 versus 82.83, consistent with slightly softer yields into the close.
Equities and sectors: softness into the bell, with financials trailing
The broad tape softened through the session. SPY and QQQ posted small declines versus prior closes, while the Dow proxy DIA underperformed among the majors on the day, and small caps (IWM) slipped marginally. Under the surface, financials lagged: XLF ended at 54.25 versus 55.29 previously. The sector had to contend with an active policy backdrop. MarketWatch highlighted fresh investor jitters around card-routing and fee dynamics that weighed on payments names, alongside debate around a potential cap on credit-card APRs at 10%. Banks also kicked off earnings season, with a report noting JPMorgan beat expectations and cited a resilient U.S. economy, but the policy overhang appeared to dominate sector sentiment today.
Technology eased as well, with XLK closing at 146.50 versus 146.79 the prior session. News flow in tech remained brisk and largely AI-centric: commentary highlighted NVIDIA being named a top pick on relative underperformance within AI leaders, while analysts turned more constructive on AMD given tighter server CPU supply and strong AI chip demand. Intel also drew favorable analysis tied to server CPU traction and manufacturing progress. On the software and platform side, separate pieces called out Microsoft, Oracle, and ServiceNow as potential beneficiaries of a software comeback tied to AI, while Amazon’s advertising business was flagged as a secular tailwind that could expand meaningfully. Apple’s reported partnership work around Google’s Gemini was framed as a potential catalyst to re-energize AI narratives around the iPhone ecosystem. Yet despite the supportive stream of AI- and platform-related headlines, the tech complex finished modestly lower on the day, consistent with broad risk taking stepping back ahead of macro catalysts.
Health care (XLV 156.71 vs. 157.38 prior) also slipped. Beyond the day’s prints, the sector remains a focal point thanks to ongoing developments in GLP-1 therapies and broader debates about cost trends and insurance dynamics. The newsflow included a high-level discussion on cost-of-living pressures and wages relative to inflation, as well as incremental commentary on obesity drug access via a new pill format. While that narrative is constructive for long-run demand, near-term trading followed the broader market’s risk-off tilt.
Airlines and aerospace were both active in the headlines. MarketWatch noted that Delta’s stock took a hit after revenue fell short of expectations, even as profit topped, while Boeing drew favorable attention on continued orders and deliveries momentum—helping it to a two-year high in recent trading sessions, according to reports. These idiosyncratic drivers underlined that earnings revisions and order flows are taking on greater importance as the macro narrative gets more mature.
Energy and geopolitics
Energy headlines remained prominent. Oil-sensitive products rallied, with USO at 73.47 versus 71.65 previously, aided by reports pointing to the Strait of Hormuz risk premium and broader U.S.–Iran tensions. One piece also noted Exxon Mobil’s shares notching a new high despite noise around Venezuela-related policy comments, underscoring that company-specific positioning and capital allocation can dominate day-to-day swings in headline risk. More broadly, a court decision allowing a wind project to restart provided a modest positive data point for parts of renewables, though ongoing regulatory uncertainties were flagged as a continuing headwind to financing and deployment.
Bonds: steady bid and policy watch
Treasuries ended with a firmer tone via ETFs, suggesting yields edged lower into the close. TLT (87.795 vs. 87.67 prior), IEF (96.29 vs. 96.18), and SHY (82.86 vs. 82.83) all finished slightly higher. The session’s bid is consistent with the ongoing policy debate surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence, after reports that the Justice Department served grand jury subpoenas in a case tied to Fed facilities renovations. International central bankers and former U.S. officials voiced public support for Chair Powell, per separate reports, underscoring that institutional credibility remains a central market variable. On the forward path for rates, one influential investor reiterated a view that the policy rate needs to move toward 3% over time; for now, the market’s term structure shows long-run inflation expectations near 2.2%–2.4%, which has kept rate volatility sensitive to each incremental data point on growth and prices.
Commodities: split tape across precious and energy
Precious metals diverged. Gold (GLD) dipped to 421.62 from 422.23 previously, while silver (SLV) advanced to 78.58 from 77.23. The mixed action landed alongside competing narratives in the day’s research flow. On one hand, MarketWatch highlighted several reasons why bullion’s surge has persisted and what fresh records in gold and silver say about investors’ mindset to start 2026, including elevated geopolitical risk and broader commodities supercycle themes. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs’ investment strategy team pushed back on gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier, warning that piling into gold as a “safety” play may be a mistake. The split underscores that positioning and time horizon matter: gold’s micro pullback today does little to change the broader debate, while silver’s continued strength is consistent with cyclical and industrial demand tailwinds.
Energy and broad commodities were firmer. USO’s gain tracked the geopolitical premium discussion, while DBC—a diversified commodities basket—rose to 23.37 from 23.19. Natural gas (UNG) also finished higher at 11.31 from 11.18. While today’s commodity moves were not extreme, the persistence of geopolitical risk and talk of a commodities supercycle keep the asset class central to cross-asset correlations.
FX and crypto
In foreign exchange, EURUSD’s mark was 1.1645 late in the day, slightly below its listed open of 1.1660 in the provided dataset, suggesting a modestly firmer U.S. dollar on the session. With no volume indicated and a tight range in the feed, it was a relatively quiet day for the pair in the supplied snapshot.
Crypto was constructive. Bitcoin’s mark stood near 94,497 versus an open around 91,417 in today’s data, and Ethereum’s mark near 3,211 compared with an open near 3,119, indicating gains for both larger tokens. While the day’s price action in major coins looked firm, one headline highlighted the risks in smaller tokens, noting controversy around a locally themed coin. The divergence is a reminder that liquidity and network fundamentals are critical differentiators in the asset class.
Notable company and policy narratives
- Banking and payments: JPMorgan’s earnings beat and positive economic comments from management marked the unofficial start of the season, but sector price action skewed lower as the market grappled with the prospect of routing mandates and a debate around capping credit-card APRs.
- Airlines and aerospace: Delta’s revenue miss weighed on sentiment for the day, while Boeing continued to garner constructive headlines tied to rising orders and deliveries.
- Energy: Headlines highlighted both the risk premium from Middle East tensions and idiosyncratic developments around Venezuela, while an onshore wind project ruling in the U.S. gave a small boost to renewables sentiment.
- Technology and AI: Multiple pieces emphasized opportunity across the AI stack—from silicon (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel) to software (Microsoft, Oracle, ServiceNow) to platform monetization (Amazon ads) and ecosystem catalysts (Apple/Gemini). Another article cautioned that the market’s “sugar high” may be fading, suggesting a grind-higher pattern could define 2026.
- Media: Litigation around Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery remained in focus, with corporate actions and board dynamics entering the narrative.
Outlook
With CPI looming, the market appears to be recalibrating risk into data. The modest bid in duration via TLT/IEF/SHY and the drift lower in SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM point to investors trimming exposure ahead of a dense calendar. Sector-level sensitivity is likely to remain elevated in financials as regulatory headlines continue to swirl, while tech will trade off company-specific AI delivery milestones as much as macro rates. Commodities should stay reactive to geopolitical updates, particularly around the Middle East. Finally, policy uncertainty—including the Fed’s leadership trajectory and judicial outcomes around tariffs—could add tactical volatility, even if long-horizon expectations remain anchored.
What to watch next
- December CPI: A confirmation of “sticky” elements would likely keep front-end rate expectations cautious and could pressure equities; a softer surprise would support risk and duration.
- Bank earnings and credit metrics: NIM guidance, credit normalization, and fee income trajectories, alongside any commentary on routing/rate-cap proposals.
- Tariff case timing and outcomes: A Supreme Court ruling—or lack thereof—on tariff authority could influence the dollar, inflation expectations, and industrials.
- Energy supply risks: Any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and updates on Venezuela policy, given oil’s sensitivity.
- AI execution: Evidence of monetization across the stack (chips, cloud, software, ads) will be key for sustaining multiples.
Near-term risks
- Policy and legal uncertainty around the Fed’s independence and leadership.
- Regulatory shifts in payments and card networks.
- Geopolitical flare-ups affecting energy supply lines.
- Corporate guidance disappointments as earnings season ramps.
- A stronger dollar tightening financial conditions if growth differentials widen.
Bottom line: Today’s close reflected modest de-risking into macro catalysts, with Treasurys bid and equities softer. Sector and thematic dispersion remains high, and upcoming CPI and earnings should set the tone for whether the market resumes its climb—or consolidates further—as 2026’s narratives evolve.
U.S. equities faded into the close on Tuesday, with the major index ETFs ending modestly below their prior settlements and leadership tilting away from financials. At the close, SPY last traded at 693.75 compared with a previous close of 695.16, QQQ at 626.13 versus 627.17, DIA at 491.90 versus 495.90, and IWM at 261.35 versus 261.50. Sector performance reflected ongoing policy and earnings crosscurrents: financials, technology, and health care each finished lower, while the bond complex firmed and commodities delivered a mixed signal—silver and oil advanced as gold slipped. Against this market backdrop, investors weighed a heavy news flow spanning the Federal Reserve’s independence, credit-card regulation, energy geopolitics, airline updates, and another round of AI-centric company narratives.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury market levels remain anchored near last week’s marks, with the curve showing a clear upslope from front-end to long-end based on the most recent available data. As of January 9, the 2-year yield stood at 3.54%, the 5-year at 3.75%, the 10-year at 4.18%, and the 30-year at 4.82%. With the 10-year yield above the 2-year by roughly 64 basis points in that snapshot, investors continue to monitor whether a prospective steepening is signaling incremental confidence in growth or simply compensation for term risk amid policy uncertainty. The CPI index level most recently published (November) stands at 325.031, with core CPI at 331.068; while those are index levels rather than growth rates, upcoming inflation prints will be crucial for gauging momentum.
Inflation expectations point to a notable gap between short- and long-term views. Model-based 1-year expectations sit near 3.20%, while market-based 5-year expectations are around 2.28% and 10-year at approximately 2.24%. That profile—elevated near-term and anchored longer-term—helps explain why rate-sensitive assets continue to trade tactically around data and policy headlines. Bond ETFs reflected a mild bid today: TLT last traded at 87.795 compared with 87.67 previously, IEF at 96.29 versus 96.18, and SHY at 82.86 versus 82.83, consistent with slightly softer yields into the close.
Equities and sectors: softness into the bell, with financials trailing
The broad tape softened through the session. SPY and QQQ posted small declines versus prior closes, while the Dow proxy DIA underperformed among the majors on the day, and small caps (IWM) slipped marginally. Under the surface, financials lagged: XLF ended at 54.25 versus 55.29 previously. The sector had to contend with an active policy backdrop. MarketWatch highlighted fresh investor jitters around card-routing and fee dynamics that weighed on payments names, alongside debate around a potential cap on credit-card APRs at 10%. Banks also kicked off earnings season, with a report noting JPMorgan beat expectations and cited a resilient U.S. economy, but the policy overhang appeared to dominate sector sentiment today.
Technology eased as well, with XLK closing at 146.50 versus 146.79 the prior session. News flow in tech remained brisk and largely AI-centric: commentary highlighted NVIDIA being named a top pick on relative underperformance within AI leaders, while analysts turned more constructive on AMD given tighter server CPU supply and strong AI chip demand. Intel also drew favorable analysis tied to server CPU traction and manufacturing progress. On the software and platform side, separate pieces called out Microsoft, Oracle, and ServiceNow as potential beneficiaries of a software comeback tied to AI, while Amazon’s advertising business was flagged as a secular tailwind that could expand meaningfully. Apple’s reported partnership work around Google’s Gemini was framed as a potential catalyst to re-energize AI narratives around the iPhone ecosystem. Yet despite the supportive stream of AI- and platform-related headlines, the tech complex finished modestly lower on the day, consistent with broad risk taking stepping back ahead of macro catalysts.
Health care (XLV 156.71 vs. 157.38 prior) also slipped. Beyond the day’s prints, the sector remains a focal point thanks to ongoing developments in GLP-1 therapies and broader debates about cost trends and insurance dynamics. The newsflow included a high-level discussion on cost-of-living pressures and wages relative to inflation, as well as incremental commentary on obesity drug access via a new pill format. While that narrative is constructive for long-run demand, near-term trading followed the broader market’s risk-off tilt.
Airlines and aerospace were both active in the headlines. MarketWatch noted that Delta’s stock took a hit after revenue fell short of expectations, even as profit topped, while Boeing drew favorable attention on continued orders and deliveries momentum—helping it to a two-year high in recent trading sessions, according to reports. These idiosyncratic drivers underlined that earnings revisions and order flows are taking on greater importance as the macro narrative gets more mature.
Energy and geopolitics
Energy headlines remained prominent. Oil-sensitive products rallied, with USO at 73.47 versus 71.65 previously, aided by reports pointing to the Strait of Hormuz risk premium and broader U.S.–Iran tensions. One piece also noted Exxon Mobil’s shares notching a new high despite noise around Venezuela-related policy comments, underscoring that company-specific positioning and capital allocation can dominate day-to-day swings in headline risk. More broadly, a court decision allowing a wind project to restart provided a modest positive data point for parts of renewables, though ongoing regulatory uncertainties were flagged as a continuing headwind to financing and deployment.
Bonds: steady bid and policy watch
Treasuries ended with a firmer tone via ETFs, suggesting yields edged lower into the close. TLT (87.795 vs. 87.67 prior), IEF (96.29 vs. 96.18), and SHY (82.86 vs. 82.83) all finished slightly higher. The session’s bid is consistent with the ongoing policy debate surrounding the Federal Reserve’s independence, after reports that the Justice Department served grand jury subpoenas in a case tied to Fed facilities renovations. International central bankers and former U.S. officials voiced public support for Chair Powell, per separate reports, underscoring that institutional credibility remains a central market variable. On the forward path for rates, one influential investor reiterated a view that the policy rate needs to move toward 3% over time; for now, the market’s term structure shows long-run inflation expectations near 2.2%–2.4%, which has kept rate volatility sensitive to each incremental data point on growth and prices.
Commodities: split tape across precious and energy
Precious metals diverged. Gold (GLD) dipped to 421.62 from 422.23 previously, while silver (SLV) advanced to 78.58 from 77.23. The mixed action landed alongside competing narratives in the day’s research flow. On one hand, MarketWatch highlighted several reasons why bullion’s surge has persisted and what fresh records in gold and silver say about investors’ mindset to start 2026, including elevated geopolitical risk and broader commodities supercycle themes. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs’ investment strategy team pushed back on gold’s role as a portfolio diversifier, warning that piling into gold as a “safety” play may be a mistake. The split underscores that positioning and time horizon matter: gold’s micro pullback today does little to change the broader debate, while silver’s continued strength is consistent with cyclical and industrial demand tailwinds.
Energy and broad commodities were firmer. USO’s gain tracked the geopolitical premium discussion, while DBC—a diversified commodities basket—rose to 23.37 from 23.19. Natural gas (UNG) also finished higher at 11.31 from 11.18. While today’s commodity moves were not extreme, the persistence of geopolitical risk and talk of a commodities supercycle keep the asset class central to cross-asset correlations.
FX and crypto
In foreign exchange, EURUSD’s mark was 1.1645 late in the day, slightly below its listed open of 1.1660 in the provided dataset, suggesting a modestly firmer U.S. dollar on the session. With no volume indicated and a tight range in the feed, it was a relatively quiet day for the pair in the supplied snapshot.
Crypto was constructive. Bitcoin’s mark stood near 94,497 versus an open around 91,417 in today’s data, and Ethereum’s mark near 3,211 compared with an open near 3,119, indicating gains for both larger tokens. While the day’s price action in major coins looked firm, one headline highlighted the risks in smaller tokens, noting controversy around a locally themed coin. The divergence is a reminder that liquidity and network fundamentals are critical differentiators in the asset class.
Notable company and policy narratives
- Banking and payments: JPMorgan’s earnings beat and positive economic comments from management marked the unofficial start of the season, but sector price action skewed lower as the market grappled with the prospect of routing mandates and a debate around capping credit-card APRs.
- Airlines and aerospace: Delta’s revenue miss weighed on sentiment for the day, while Boeing continued to garner constructive headlines tied to rising orders and deliveries.
- Energy: Headlines highlighted both the risk premium from Middle East tensions and idiosyncratic developments around Venezuela, while an onshore wind project ruling in the U.S. gave a small boost to renewables sentiment.
- Technology and AI: Multiple pieces emphasized opportunity across the AI stack—from silicon (NVIDIA, AMD, Intel) to software (Microsoft, Oracle, ServiceNow) to platform monetization (Amazon ads) and ecosystem catalysts (Apple/Gemini). Another article cautioned that the market’s “sugar high” may be fading, suggesting a grind-higher pattern could define 2026.
- Media: Litigation around Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery remained in focus, with corporate actions and board dynamics entering the narrative.
Outlook
With CPI looming, the market appears to be recalibrating risk into data. The modest bid in duration via TLT/IEF/SHY and the drift lower in SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM point to investors trimming exposure ahead of a dense calendar. Sector-level sensitivity is likely to remain elevated in financials as regulatory headlines continue to swirl, while tech will trade off company-specific AI delivery milestones as much as macro rates. Commodities should stay reactive to geopolitical updates, particularly around the Middle East. Finally, policy uncertainty—including the Fed’s leadership trajectory and judicial outcomes around tariffs—could add tactical volatility, even if long-horizon expectations remain anchored.
What to watch next
- December CPI: A confirmation of “sticky” elements would likely keep front-end rate expectations cautious and could pressure equities; a softer surprise would support risk and duration.
- Bank earnings and credit metrics: NIM guidance, credit normalization, and fee income trajectories, alongside any commentary on routing/rate-cap proposals.
- Tariff case timing and outcomes: A Supreme Court ruling—or lack thereof—on tariff authority could influence the dollar, inflation expectations, and industrials.
- Energy supply risks: Any escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and updates on Venezuela policy, given oil’s sensitivity.
- AI execution: Evidence of monetization across the stack (chips, cloud, software, ads) will be key for sustaining multiples.
Near-term risks
- Policy and legal uncertainty around the Fed’s independence and leadership.
- Regulatory shifts in payments and card networks.
- Geopolitical flare-ups affecting energy supply lines.
- Corporate guidance disappointments as earnings season ramps.
- A stronger dollar tightening financial conditions if growth differentials widen.
Bottom line: Today’s close reflected modest de-risking into macro catalysts, with Treasurys bid and equities softer. Sector and thematic dispersion remains high, and upcoming CPI and earnings should set the tone for whether the market resumes its climb—or consolidates further—as 2026’s narratives evolve.