State of Market: Close 12/04/25
Small caps lead while megacaps tread water; bonds soften and commodities firm ahead of key inflation print
Mixed finish at the index level masks leadership rotation to cyclicals and small caps. Bond ETFs slip as the curve remains upward sloping; oil and natural gas advance, silver cools after record headlines, and crypto stays elevated.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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Equities finished the session mixed, with a clear tilt toward cyclical and domestically oriented shares while megacaps were flat to slightly lower. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) eked out a modest gain, the Nasdaq 100 proxy (QQQ) slipped, and the Dow proxy (DIA) was little changed. The notable standout was small caps: the Russell 2000 proxy (IWM) outperformed decisively. Beneath the index-level view, sector leadership favored technology and financials, while health care lagged and energy was marginally lower. In fixed income, Treasury ETFs weakened across the curve, consistent with a modest uptick in yields and a still-upward-sloping term structure. Commodities were broadly firmer, led by crude oil and natural gas, while silver gave back some of its recent strength following headlines about record prices. In digital assets, Bitcoin hovered above $92,000 after Bloomberg reported a two-week high earlier this week, and Ethereum eased alongside a broader consolidation.
Macro and policy backdrop
- Treasury yields, as of the latest available readings (2025-12-02), remain in an upward-sloping configuration from the belly to the long end: 2-year at 3.51%, 5-year at 3.66%, 10-year at 4.09%, and 30-year at 4.74%. That term structure aligns with today’s price action in bond ETFs, which finished lower across durations.
- Inflation levels show CPI at 324.368 (September 2025) and core CPI at 330.542. While that is an index level rather than a month-over-month or year-over-year rate, it frames the ongoing debate ahead of Friday’s inflation report. MarketWatch described that upcoming release as a “gut check” for sentiment with stocks near record territory and investors balancing inflation worries with softer consumer mood.
- Market-based inflation expectations as of November point to subdued medium- and longer-term pricing: roughly 2.35% over five years and 2.27% over ten years, with the five-year, five-year forward near 2.18% (data provided for the latter in the expectations feed). Anchored expectations continue to support the soft-landing narrative even as near-term data oscillate.
- Labor mixed signals remain front-and-center. MarketWatch highlighted that ADP’s reading showed the economy losing jobs for the third time in four months, while separate reporting noted jobless claims fell to a more than three-year low around the Thanksgiving period, depicting a “no-hire, no-fire” environment. ISM services data showed ongoing growth with easing inflation pressures but also cited “tariff uncertainty” as a factor depressing sales and hiring plans. MarketWatch also reported that investors recently used a weak private-sector hiring print to solidify expectations for a quarter-point rate cut next week.
Equities: index-level takeaways
- SPY closed at 684.40 versus 683.89 previously (+0.07%). The S&P proxy found incremental support even as breadth rotated toward smaller and more cyclical components.
- QQQ ended at 622.86 versus 623.52 (-0.11%). Megacaps were a drag, consistent with consolidation after a strong run. Several technology and software headlines dotted the tape, but index-level performance stayed subdued.
- DIA finished at 479.16 versus 479.41 (-0.05%), effectively flat and reflecting offsetting moves among industrial stalwarts.
- IWM outperformed: 251.81 versus 249.63 (+0.87%). The small-cap bid aligns with a market leaning into domestic growth sensitivity and a potentially more supportive rate backdrop if upcoming inflation data cooperates.
Sectors and notable themes
- XLK (Technology) rose to 291.06 from 289.99 (+0.37%). The tech tape was busy: CNBC reported Amazon Web Services unveiled new AI chips and deepened Nvidia ties, reiterating that cloud capacity remains the key constraint; CNBC also covered Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI for up to $5.5 billion, an aggressive move to add complementary technology to its networking franchise. MarketWatch highlighted continued debate about how AI impacts traditional software, with Salesforce’s results and commentary earlier in the week emphasizing pipeline strength and AI momentum, while separate coverage noted why Snowflake’s beat didn’t lift shares given decelerating product revenue growth this quarter. The net takeaway is that AI remains a durable demand driver for infrastructure and select platforms, even as monetization timing varies across software models.
- XLF (Financials) edged up to 53.655 from 53.55 (+0.20%). Financials often track rate expectations and curve dynamics; today’s modest steepness and small-cap rotation were supportive. Separate articles noted insider buying at Fiserv and profit-taking in a bank stock near record highs; these micro stories reinforce a still-constructive but selective setup within financials.
- XLV (Health Care) slipped to 153.94 from 155.08 (-0.74%). While there was no single sector driver in the tape provided, MarketWatch flagged ongoing consumer cost pressures in areas like healthcare and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy price dispersion, which remains a visible theme in the health-care cost debate.
- XLE (Energy proxy in the sector data) eased to 87.425 from 87.60 (-0.20%). Macro stories were active: MarketWatch discussed OPEC+ dynamics and why producers have been adding supply despite lower crude prices this year, and separately explored how a U.S. push for regime change in Venezuela could be interpreted by oil traders. The price response at the ETF level today was modestly lower even as the broad commodities complex edged up. The commodity sleeve below provides a more direct lens via USO.
Fixed income: duration under pressure
- Treasury ETFs pulled back across the curve: TLT closed at 88.595 versus 89.06 (-0.52%), IEF at 96.675 versus 96.97 (-0.30%), and SHY at 82.805 versus 82.86 (-0.07%). The move is consistent with the yield snapshot’s upward slope and a market leaning cautiously into Friday’s inflation print and the upcoming Fed decision. With medium- to long-term inflation expectations anchored around 2.2–2.35%, duration remains sensitive to incremental upside surprises in realized inflation and term premium dynamics.
Commodities: crude and gas firm; silver cools; broad basket higher
- GLD ticked up to 387.12 from 386.88 (+0.06%), a quiet session for gold as investors balanced anchored long-run inflation expectations with near-term macro uncertainty.
- SLV fell to 51.76 from 53.07 (-2.47%). That pullback follows Bloomberg’s report that silver marked a record high this week amid tight supply and rate-cut hopes. Today’s giveback looks like a consolidation of those outsized gains.
- USO advanced to 71.39 from 70.66 (+1.03%), while UNG rose to 15.67 from 15.47 (+1.29%). The gains unfolded against a backdrop of ongoing OPEC+ supply questions and broader geopolitical risk discussions around Venezuela. Natural gas often trades on distinct weather and storage dynamics; absent specific data in today’s feed, the move can be framed as part of a modestly firmer energy complex.
- DBC, a diversified commodities basket, edged up to 23.195 from 23.13 (+0.28%), validating the day’s general tone of commodity firmness outside of silver’s retracement.
FX and crypto: euro steady; crypto elevated but off highs
- EURUSD traded around 1.164 as of the close snapshot provided, with the displayed intraday range narrow in the data. With no dollar index supplied, the cross-rate read simply indicates a relatively steady euro ahead of U.S. inflation data.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked at 92,513, with an intraday high of 93,681 and low of 90,876; versus an open of 93,381, that is modestly lower on the day but still elevated. Bloomberg earlier reported Bitcoin reached a two-week high near $93,900. MarketWatch also cited a JPMorgan strategist who framed upside scenarios for Bitcoin if it were valued like gold. Together, these items underscore persistent interest in crypto as a macro hedge and speculative asset amid rate-cut hopes.
- Ethereum (ETHUSD) was at 3,140.80 with a 3,228/3,067 day range and a 3,193 open, indicating a small decline. The move aligns with consolidation across large-cap tokens after a strong rebound from late-November lows.
Company and thematic headlines to watch
- Labor and consumer: CNBC reported Starbucks Workers United held a rally in New York as strikes entered a third week, keeping labor relations in focus for large consumer brands. MarketWatch highlighted record use of buy-now-pay-later options during the holidays, as well as lingering consumer affordability pressures, both of which inform retail positioning into year-end.
- Media and M&A: Multiple reports pointed to Netflix and Paramount as perceived front-runners to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, though investor reaction was cautious. Another MarketWatch piece suggested even Paramount sees Netflix in the lead. Deal outcomes could reshuffle streaming content portfolios and balance sheets for several media names.
- Megacap and enterprise tech: MarketWatch covered Tesla as the only major tech platform stock yet to log a new high this year, though it is within striking distance; separate reporting argued Microsoft’s OpenAI partnership acts as a stock “safety net.” Oracle’s sentiment has deteriorated into earnings, according to another piece, placing emphasis on any update to financing needs. Meanwhile, CNBC highlighted AWS’s AI chip announcements and Nvidia partnership updates, and another CNBC story covered CrowdStrike’s deepening ties with AWS. Marvell’s Celestial AI acquisition was framed as an assertive push into accelerated networking.
- Industrials and travel: CNBC noted Boeing’s stock recently jumped on CFO commentary, and Delta discussed a $200 million impact from the government shutdown while maintaining a constructive demand outlook into 2026. These items contribute to a steady industrial/travel narrative with company-specific catalysts.
- Retail: MarketWatch said Costco shares turned negative for the year on decelerating U.S. sales trends, and separate stories covered improving traffic at Dollar General and better-than-expected sales at Dollar Tree, consistent with consumer trade-down dynamics.
What it all means for positioning
Today’s tape reflects a market incrementally broadening beneath the surface while megacaps consolidate. The positive slope of the yield curve from 2s to 30s alongside anchored forward inflation expectations continues to support the case for small-cap relative catch-up, provided the upcoming inflation report cooperates and labor softness does not morph into abrupt demand weakness. Bond ETF softness and commodity firmness suggest investors remain cautious about term premium and real activity into year-end, even as the policy-rate path is expected to ease according to recent commentary cited by MarketWatch.
Outlook
- Friday’s inflation release is the key near-term catalyst. A downside surprise could validate anchored expectations and support duration and small caps. An upside surprise would likely re-price the front end and weigh on risk, particularly rate-sensitive software and long-duration equities.
- The Fed’s final policy meeting of the year follows. MarketWatch noted that investors recently priced a quarter-point cut next week on soft hiring signals; the balance of risks will swing with Friday’s data and any signs of funding-market stress, which MarketWatch also flagged as an area the Fed may need to address.
- In tech, watch ongoing AI infrastructure updates (AWS, semiconductor networking, datacenter power constraints) and software monetization commentary. The Marvell/Celestial AI deal underscores consolidation around interconnects and accelerated compute.
- In media, watch the Warner Bros. Discovery process, with investor sensitivity to bid quality and balance-sheet discipline.
- In energy and metals, monitor OPEC+ supply messaging, Venezuela headlines, and follow-through after silver’s record-setting newsflow; today’s pullback could continue if real yields back up or if positioning unwinds.
Risks
- Upside inflation surprise that reopens the “higher for longer” debate and lifts term premium.
- Labor-market deterioration beyond the “no-hire, no-fire” regime, pressuring cyclical earnings and small-cap credit spreads.
- Funding-market tightness (short-term plumbing) requiring policy response, as noted by MarketWatch.
- Geopolitical escalation tied to energy markets (Venezuela, broader supply dynamics), raising volatility in crude and the broader commodity complex.
- Regulatory and legal risks in tech and media (EU antitrust actions, U.S. tariff rulings), with potential spillovers to margins and capital allocation.
Bottom line
The close showed a healthy rotation into small caps and cyclicals even as megacaps paused, with bonds soft and commodities firmer into Friday’s inflation test. Anchored medium- and long-run inflation expectations remain a tailwind for valuation stability, but near-term data could still inject volatility into rates, software, and highly duration-sensitive growth pockets. For now, the path of least resistance favors breadth, select financials, and quality cyclicals, while maintaining risk controls around policy and macro catalysts in the week ahead.
Equities finished the session mixed, with a clear tilt toward cyclical and domestically oriented shares while megacaps were flat to slightly lower. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) eked out a modest gain, the Nasdaq 100 proxy (QQQ) slipped, and the Dow proxy (DIA) was little changed. The notable standout was small caps: the Russell 2000 proxy (IWM) outperformed decisively. Beneath the index-level view, sector leadership favored technology and financials, while health care lagged and energy was marginally lower. In fixed income, Treasury ETFs weakened across the curve, consistent with a modest uptick in yields and a still-upward-sloping term structure. Commodities were broadly firmer, led by crude oil and natural gas, while silver gave back some of its recent strength following headlines about record prices. In digital assets, Bitcoin hovered above $92,000 after Bloomberg reported a two-week high earlier this week, and Ethereum eased alongside a broader consolidation.
Macro and policy backdrop
- Treasury yields, as of the latest available readings (2025-12-02), remain in an upward-sloping configuration from the belly to the long end: 2-year at 3.51%, 5-year at 3.66%, 10-year at 4.09%, and 30-year at 4.74%. That term structure aligns with today’s price action in bond ETFs, which finished lower across durations.
- Inflation levels show CPI at 324.368 (September 2025) and core CPI at 330.542. While that is an index level rather than a month-over-month or year-over-year rate, it frames the ongoing debate ahead of Friday’s inflation report. MarketWatch described that upcoming release as a “gut check” for sentiment with stocks near record territory and investors balancing inflation worries with softer consumer mood.
- Market-based inflation expectations as of November point to subdued medium- and longer-term pricing: roughly 2.35% over five years and 2.27% over ten years, with the five-year, five-year forward near 2.18% (data provided for the latter in the expectations feed). Anchored expectations continue to support the soft-landing narrative even as near-term data oscillate.
- Labor mixed signals remain front-and-center. MarketWatch highlighted that ADP’s reading showed the economy losing jobs for the third time in four months, while separate reporting noted jobless claims fell to a more than three-year low around the Thanksgiving period, depicting a “no-hire, no-fire” environment. ISM services data showed ongoing growth with easing inflation pressures but also cited “tariff uncertainty” as a factor depressing sales and hiring plans. MarketWatch also reported that investors recently used a weak private-sector hiring print to solidify expectations for a quarter-point rate cut next week.
Equities: index-level takeaways
- SPY closed at 684.40 versus 683.89 previously (+0.07%). The S&P proxy found incremental support even as breadth rotated toward smaller and more cyclical components.
- QQQ ended at 622.86 versus 623.52 (-0.11%). Megacaps were a drag, consistent with consolidation after a strong run. Several technology and software headlines dotted the tape, but index-level performance stayed subdued.
- DIA finished at 479.16 versus 479.41 (-0.05%), effectively flat and reflecting offsetting moves among industrial stalwarts.
- IWM outperformed: 251.81 versus 249.63 (+0.87%). The small-cap bid aligns with a market leaning into domestic growth sensitivity and a potentially more supportive rate backdrop if upcoming inflation data cooperates.
Sectors and notable themes
- XLK (Technology) rose to 291.06 from 289.99 (+0.37%). The tech tape was busy: CNBC reported Amazon Web Services unveiled new AI chips and deepened Nvidia ties, reiterating that cloud capacity remains the key constraint; CNBC also covered Marvell’s acquisition of Celestial AI for up to $5.5 billion, an aggressive move to add complementary technology to its networking franchise. MarketWatch highlighted continued debate about how AI impacts traditional software, with Salesforce’s results and commentary earlier in the week emphasizing pipeline strength and AI momentum, while separate coverage noted why Snowflake’s beat didn’t lift shares given decelerating product revenue growth this quarter. The net takeaway is that AI remains a durable demand driver for infrastructure and select platforms, even as monetization timing varies across software models.
- XLF (Financials) edged up to 53.655 from 53.55 (+0.20%). Financials often track rate expectations and curve dynamics; today’s modest steepness and small-cap rotation were supportive. Separate articles noted insider buying at Fiserv and profit-taking in a bank stock near record highs; these micro stories reinforce a still-constructive but selective setup within financials.
- XLV (Health Care) slipped to 153.94 from 155.08 (-0.74%). While there was no single sector driver in the tape provided, MarketWatch flagged ongoing consumer cost pressures in areas like healthcare and Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy price dispersion, which remains a visible theme in the health-care cost debate.
- XLE (Energy proxy in the sector data) eased to 87.425 from 87.60 (-0.20%). Macro stories were active: MarketWatch discussed OPEC+ dynamics and why producers have been adding supply despite lower crude prices this year, and separately explored how a U.S. push for regime change in Venezuela could be interpreted by oil traders. The price response at the ETF level today was modestly lower even as the broad commodities complex edged up. The commodity sleeve below provides a more direct lens via USO.
Fixed income: duration under pressure
- Treasury ETFs pulled back across the curve: TLT closed at 88.595 versus 89.06 (-0.52%), IEF at 96.675 versus 96.97 (-0.30%), and SHY at 82.805 versus 82.86 (-0.07%). The move is consistent with the yield snapshot’s upward slope and a market leaning cautiously into Friday’s inflation print and the upcoming Fed decision. With medium- to long-term inflation expectations anchored around 2.2–2.35%, duration remains sensitive to incremental upside surprises in realized inflation and term premium dynamics.
Commodities: crude and gas firm; silver cools; broad basket higher
- GLD ticked up to 387.12 from 386.88 (+0.06%), a quiet session for gold as investors balanced anchored long-run inflation expectations with near-term macro uncertainty.
- SLV fell to 51.76 from 53.07 (-2.47%). That pullback follows Bloomberg’s report that silver marked a record high this week amid tight supply and rate-cut hopes. Today’s giveback looks like a consolidation of those outsized gains.
- USO advanced to 71.39 from 70.66 (+1.03%), while UNG rose to 15.67 from 15.47 (+1.29%). The gains unfolded against a backdrop of ongoing OPEC+ supply questions and broader geopolitical risk discussions around Venezuela. Natural gas often trades on distinct weather and storage dynamics; absent specific data in today’s feed, the move can be framed as part of a modestly firmer energy complex.
- DBC, a diversified commodities basket, edged up to 23.195 from 23.13 (+0.28%), validating the day’s general tone of commodity firmness outside of silver’s retracement.
FX and crypto: euro steady; crypto elevated but off highs
- EURUSD traded around 1.164 as of the close snapshot provided, with the displayed intraday range narrow in the data. With no dollar index supplied, the cross-rate read simply indicates a relatively steady euro ahead of U.S. inflation data.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked at 92,513, with an intraday high of 93,681 and low of 90,876; versus an open of 93,381, that is modestly lower on the day but still elevated. Bloomberg earlier reported Bitcoin reached a two-week high near $93,900. MarketWatch also cited a JPMorgan strategist who framed upside scenarios for Bitcoin if it were valued like gold. Together, these items underscore persistent interest in crypto as a macro hedge and speculative asset amid rate-cut hopes.
- Ethereum (ETHUSD) was at 3,140.80 with a 3,228/3,067 day range and a 3,193 open, indicating a small decline. The move aligns with consolidation across large-cap tokens after a strong rebound from late-November lows.
Company and thematic headlines to watch
- Labor and consumer: CNBC reported Starbucks Workers United held a rally in New York as strikes entered a third week, keeping labor relations in focus for large consumer brands. MarketWatch highlighted record use of buy-now-pay-later options during the holidays, as well as lingering consumer affordability pressures, both of which inform retail positioning into year-end.
- Media and M&A: Multiple reports pointed to Netflix and Paramount as perceived front-runners to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, though investor reaction was cautious. Another MarketWatch piece suggested even Paramount sees Netflix in the lead. Deal outcomes could reshuffle streaming content portfolios and balance sheets for several media names.
- Megacap and enterprise tech: MarketWatch covered Tesla as the only major tech platform stock yet to log a new high this year, though it is within striking distance; separate reporting argued Microsoft’s OpenAI partnership acts as a stock “safety net.” Oracle’s sentiment has deteriorated into earnings, according to another piece, placing emphasis on any update to financing needs. Meanwhile, CNBC highlighted AWS’s AI chip announcements and Nvidia partnership updates, and another CNBC story covered CrowdStrike’s deepening ties with AWS. Marvell’s Celestial AI acquisition was framed as an assertive push into accelerated networking.
- Industrials and travel: CNBC noted Boeing’s stock recently jumped on CFO commentary, and Delta discussed a $200 million impact from the government shutdown while maintaining a constructive demand outlook into 2026. These items contribute to a steady industrial/travel narrative with company-specific catalysts.
- Retail: MarketWatch said Costco shares turned negative for the year on decelerating U.S. sales trends, and separate stories covered improving traffic at Dollar General and better-than-expected sales at Dollar Tree, consistent with consumer trade-down dynamics.
What it all means for positioning
Today’s tape reflects a market incrementally broadening beneath the surface while megacaps consolidate. The positive slope of the yield curve from 2s to 30s alongside anchored forward inflation expectations continues to support the case for small-cap relative catch-up, provided the upcoming inflation report cooperates and labor softness does not morph into abrupt demand weakness. Bond ETF softness and commodity firmness suggest investors remain cautious about term premium and real activity into year-end, even as the policy-rate path is expected to ease according to recent commentary cited by MarketWatch.
Outlook
- Friday’s inflation release is the key near-term catalyst. A downside surprise could validate anchored expectations and support duration and small caps. An upside surprise would likely re-price the front end and weigh on risk, particularly rate-sensitive software and long-duration equities.
- The Fed’s final policy meeting of the year follows. MarketWatch noted that investors recently priced a quarter-point cut next week on soft hiring signals; the balance of risks will swing with Friday’s data and any signs of funding-market stress, which MarketWatch also flagged as an area the Fed may need to address.
- In tech, watch ongoing AI infrastructure updates (AWS, semiconductor networking, datacenter power constraints) and software monetization commentary. The Marvell/Celestial AI deal underscores consolidation around interconnects and accelerated compute.
- In media, watch the Warner Bros. Discovery process, with investor sensitivity to bid quality and balance-sheet discipline.
- In energy and metals, monitor OPEC+ supply messaging, Venezuela headlines, and follow-through after silver’s record-setting newsflow; today’s pullback could continue if real yields back up or if positioning unwinds.
Risks
- Upside inflation surprise that reopens the “higher for longer” debate and lifts term premium.
- Labor-market deterioration beyond the “no-hire, no-fire” regime, pressuring cyclical earnings and small-cap credit spreads.
- Funding-market tightness (short-term plumbing) requiring policy response, as noted by MarketWatch.
- Geopolitical escalation tied to energy markets (Venezuela, broader supply dynamics), raising volatility in crude and the broader commodity complex.
- Regulatory and legal risks in tech and media (EU antitrust actions, U.S. tariff rulings), with potential spillovers to margins and capital allocation.
Bottom line
The close showed a healthy rotation into small caps and cyclicals even as megacaps paused, with bonds soft and commodities firmer into Friday’s inflation test. Anchored medium- and long-run inflation expectations remain a tailwind for valuation stability, but near-term data could still inject volatility into rates, software, and highly duration-sensitive growth pockets. For now, the path of least resistance favors breadth, select financials, and quality cyclicals, while maintaining risk controls around policy and macro catalysts in the week ahead.