State of Market: Midday 12/31/25
Midday markets soften into year-end as yields firm and precious metals cool
Equities and bonds ease together while gold and silver give back gains; oil and gas slip; euro steadies near 1.174; crypto drifts lower. Focus turns to Fed pause signals, labor resilience, and commodity market cross-currents.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Overview
U.S. markets are softer at midday in the final trading session of 2025, with modest declines across major equity benchmarks, a slight giveback in Treasurys, and broad-based weakness in commodities. The backdrop features a Federal Reserve that, according to recent minutes, appears comfortable holding rates steady for some time while inflation expectations track toward the low-2% range over longer horizons. Labor remains resilient, with jobless claims recently undershooting forecasts. In this context, stocks are consolidating after a strong year, long-duration bonds are dipping alongside a firmer-rate tone, and the notable 2025 surge in precious metals has seen renewed volatility and profit-taking.
At the index level, SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all trade a bit below their prior closes, indicating a broad but contained pullback. Sector performance is similarly subdued, with technology (XLK), financials (XLF), health care (XLV), and utilities (XLU) all fractionally lower. In bonds, TLT and IEF are down on the day, consistent with the 10-year yield holding above 4%. GLD and SLV are lower, with silver underperforming gold—consistent with recent reports of intense two-way volatility in the metal after a historic year of gains. Oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) are also lower midday, and the diversified commodity proxy DBC is softer. FX is quiet, with EURUSD hovering near 1.174 on the print provided. Crypto is marginally weaker, with BTCUSD and ETHUSD below their session opens.
Macro: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields as of the latest available reading show a curve that remains upward sloping from the 2-year to the long end. The 2-year stands at 3.45%, the 5-year at 3.67%, the 10-year at 4.12%, and the 30-year at 4.80%. This level for the 10-year is consistent with an economy that is not overheating but still running with nominal growth sufficient to keep long rates above 4%. A modest drift higher in yields today aligns with the pullback in duration-sensitive ETFs like TLT and IEF.
On inflation, the most recent CPI and core CPI levels (November) register at 325.031 and 331.068, respectively. While index levels alone do not convey the year-over-year pace, market-based and model-derived expectations provide important context: 1-year inflation expectations sit at 3.20%, with 5-year at 2.42% and 10-year at 2.34%. That term structure suggests the market sees near-term inflation modestly above the Federal Reserve’s target but returning close to 2% over the medium and long run. This dovetails with the latest Fed minutes indicating rates could be on hold “for some time,” allowing policymakers to assess the impact of earlier cuts in 2025 without re-accelerating inflation risk.
At the same time, labor remains firm. Recent weekly jobless claims fell for a third straight week and dipped below 200,000, underscoring steady hiring conditions into year-end. A resilient labor market and anchored medium-term inflation expectations help explain why the front end of the curve (2- to 5-year) remains contained, while the long end (10- to 30-year) reflects term premium and growth/inflation uncertainty.
Equities and sectors
Major U.S. equity ETFs are modestly lower at midday:
- SPY last trades at 685.37 versus a previous close of 687.01.
- QQQ is at 617.87 versus 619.43 prior close.
- DIA is at 482.27 versus 483.59.
- IWM is at 247.175 versus 248.03.
The pullback is orderly, consistent with reports that stocks are slumping into the final session but without signs of stress. Sector performance mirrors the broader indices:
- XLK (technology) last at 144.94 versus 145.41 prior close.
- XLF (financials) at 55.05 versus 55.18.
- XLV (health care) at 155.49 versus 155.68.
- XLU (utilities) at 42.79 versus 42.96 prior close (note: provided sector object shows XLU as the symbol).
Given the rate backdrop, the modest drift lower across both growth-sensitive tech and rate-sensitive utilities is unsurprising. Financials are also slightly weaker despite a constructive medium-term case for regional banks highlighted in recent commentary about a potentially steeper curve and a friendlier regulatory environment in 2026. For now, the day’s tone is more about year-end positioning than any sector-specific shock.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs are edging down:
- TLT last at 87.47 versus 87.86 prior close.
- IEF at 96.26 versus 96.48.
- SHY is nearly unchanged to slightly lower at 82.835 versus 82.85 prior.
With the 10-year yield above 4% and the 30-year around 4.8%, the pressure on intermediate and long-duration bonds is directionally consistent. The move is not large, but it reinforces the idea that a prolonged Fed pause in early 2026, alongside steady economic data, can keep term yields range-bound with a modest upward bias until new growth or inflation surprises emerge.
Commodities
Precious metals are giving back ground midday:
- GLD last at 397.71 versus 398.89 prior close.
- SLV notably softer at 64.76 versus 68.98.
The divergence, with silver underperforming gold, lines up with a series of reports describing heightened volatility in silver following a sharp multi-month advance. Commentary points to thin holiday liquidity, higher margin requirements, and intense positioning as drivers of two-way action. Analysts have also flagged structural tailwinds—industrial demand linked to AI, tech hardware, and solar—alongside potential policy factors, including discussions about China’s influence over the silver supply chain. Separate coverage noted that gold, silver, and copper have trounced stocks this year and are on pace for their biggest annual percentage gains since 1979, underscoring how large the 2025 commodity move has been even with this week’s pullbacks.
Energy and broad commodities are also lower:
- USO at 69.215 versus 69.74 prior close.
- UNG at 12.226 versus 13.12 prior.
- DBC at 22.405 versus 22.64 prior.
Softness in oil aligns with recent headlines around changing crude flows, including disruptions in Russian shipments to India and the role of major refiners in mediating the decline. While these developments can be idiosyncratic, they contribute to a mixed near-term supply picture and a market still sensitive to policy and sanction dynamics. Natural gas remains weak, consistent with a broader commodities downtick into year-end.
FX and crypto
The euro-dollar pair (EURUSD) prints near 1.174 on the mark price provided. Without a comparable prior close or intraday change, the cross looks broadly steady in the absence of fresh catalysts. The broader macro tone—Fed on hold, inflation expectations anchored, resilient labor—does not argue for abrupt FX moves at this midday snapshot.
Crypto is modestly softer:
- BTCUSD marks around 87,816, below its session open of 88,241 with an intraday range noted in the data.
- ETHUSD around 2,978, modestly below its session open near 2,966, showing contained two-way trade on the day.
While single-asset drivers dominate crypto, the slight risk-off tone across equities and commodities may be contributing to a cautious bias into the holiday.
Notable company and thematic news
- Insider buying: Nike shares have moved higher on insider purchases by the CEO and a director, following a difficult year for the stock. Insider buying can help stabilize sentiment, particularly when external conditions are uncertain. The theme of leadership equity purchases extends to other mega-cap leaders as well, with reports highlighting prominent executives adding to positions late in the year.
- AI and dealmaking: Coverage notes that mega-cap tech companies continue to close AI-related acquisitions into year-end, reinforcing the thesis that 2026 will feature continued capital expenditure and M&A in foundational models and infrastructure. This supports the secular narrative underpinning XLK even as near-term price action consolidates.
- Automakers: Reports indicate General Motors has posted a standout stock performance in 2025 relative to peers, while Tesla issued a cautious sales outlook for Q4 and 2025. These cross-currents reflect a market that is sorting winners and laggards within autos after a volatile year for EVs, hybrids, and legacy platforms.
- Precious metals structure: Multiple pieces chronicle the sharp swings in silver this week and the broader 2025 surge in metals, with some analysts debating whether silver is in a bubble or supported by structural demand and potential policy constraints. For equity and commodity investors, this is a reminder that elevated realized volatility can persist even if the medium-term fundamental case remains intact.
Outlook
As 2025 wraps, near-term focus is on the following:
- Fed policy path: Minutes suggest a pause “for some time,” which places a premium on incoming inflation and labor data. With 5- and 10-year inflation expectations close to 2.4% and 2.34%, respectively, the market is poised to reward data confirming disinflation without growth slippage.
- Labor resilience: Jobless claims trending below expectations indicate ongoing labor tightness. Watch whether January seasonality and post-holiday layoffs alter the signal.
- Earnings setup: While there are no major updates in the immediate window, early 2026 commentary will determine whether consensus growth expectations—particularly in tech capex, AI monetization, and services—are met.
- Commodities volatility: Given the scale of 2025 gains and the recent two-way trade in silver and gold, monitor positioning, margin changes, and potential policy developments affecting supply chains.
Risks
- Policy and fiscal: Headlines warn of the possibility of another government shutdown as Congress returns, which would introduce headline risk and potential delays in data releases or fiscal disbursements.
- Commodity policy shocks: Reports around China’s influence over silver supply raise the risk of export or regulatory actions that could exacerbate price swings.
- Geopolitics and energy flows: Shifts in Russian oil exports and sanction dynamics could inject volatility into crude benchmarks, with spillovers to inflation expectations and rate markets.
- Market structure and leverage: The year’s surge in short-duration options trading and episodes of crowding in commodities underscore the importance of watching liquidity and positioning into thin holiday conditions.
Bottom line
Midday markets are in mild risk-off mode across equities, bonds, and commodities, consistent with a final-session consolidation after a strong year. The macro mosaic—Fed on hold, inflation expectations anchored near target, and resilient labor—remains broadly constructive, but cross-currents in commodities and policy risks argue for maintaining diversification and discipline into early 2026. With breadth modestly weak today and duration under light pressure, price action appears more about calendar effects and profit-taking than a change in trend. The first weeks of 2026 will bring clarity on whether earnings guidance, data momentum, and policy stability can extend the cycle—or whether elevated valuations and commodity volatility temper risk appetite.
Overview
U.S. markets are softer at midday in the final trading session of 2025, with modest declines across major equity benchmarks, a slight giveback in Treasurys, and broad-based weakness in commodities. The backdrop features a Federal Reserve that, according to recent minutes, appears comfortable holding rates steady for some time while inflation expectations track toward the low-2% range over longer horizons. Labor remains resilient, with jobless claims recently undershooting forecasts. In this context, stocks are consolidating after a strong year, long-duration bonds are dipping alongside a firmer-rate tone, and the notable 2025 surge in precious metals has seen renewed volatility and profit-taking.
At the index level, SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all trade a bit below their prior closes, indicating a broad but contained pullback. Sector performance is similarly subdued, with technology (XLK), financials (XLF), health care (XLV), and utilities (XLU) all fractionally lower. In bonds, TLT and IEF are down on the day, consistent with the 10-year yield holding above 4%. GLD and SLV are lower, with silver underperforming gold—consistent with recent reports of intense two-way volatility in the metal after a historic year of gains. Oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) are also lower midday, and the diversified commodity proxy DBC is softer. FX is quiet, with EURUSD hovering near 1.174 on the print provided. Crypto is marginally weaker, with BTCUSD and ETHUSD below their session opens.
Macro: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields as of the latest available reading show a curve that remains upward sloping from the 2-year to the long end. The 2-year stands at 3.45%, the 5-year at 3.67%, the 10-year at 4.12%, and the 30-year at 4.80%. This level for the 10-year is consistent with an economy that is not overheating but still running with nominal growth sufficient to keep long rates above 4%. A modest drift higher in yields today aligns with the pullback in duration-sensitive ETFs like TLT and IEF.
On inflation, the most recent CPI and core CPI levels (November) register at 325.031 and 331.068, respectively. While index levels alone do not convey the year-over-year pace, market-based and model-derived expectations provide important context: 1-year inflation expectations sit at 3.20%, with 5-year at 2.42% and 10-year at 2.34%. That term structure suggests the market sees near-term inflation modestly above the Federal Reserve’s target but returning close to 2% over the medium and long run. This dovetails with the latest Fed minutes indicating rates could be on hold “for some time,” allowing policymakers to assess the impact of earlier cuts in 2025 without re-accelerating inflation risk.
At the same time, labor remains firm. Recent weekly jobless claims fell for a third straight week and dipped below 200,000, underscoring steady hiring conditions into year-end. A resilient labor market and anchored medium-term inflation expectations help explain why the front end of the curve (2- to 5-year) remains contained, while the long end (10- to 30-year) reflects term premium and growth/inflation uncertainty.
Equities and sectors
Major U.S. equity ETFs are modestly lower at midday:
- SPY last trades at 685.37 versus a previous close of 687.01.
- QQQ is at 617.87 versus 619.43 prior close.
- DIA is at 482.27 versus 483.59.
- IWM is at 247.175 versus 248.03.
The pullback is orderly, consistent with reports that stocks are slumping into the final session but without signs of stress. Sector performance mirrors the broader indices:
- XLK (technology) last at 144.94 versus 145.41 prior close.
- XLF (financials) at 55.05 versus 55.18.
- XLV (health care) at 155.49 versus 155.68.
- XLU (utilities) at 42.79 versus 42.96 prior close (note: provided sector object shows XLU as the symbol).
Given the rate backdrop, the modest drift lower across both growth-sensitive tech and rate-sensitive utilities is unsurprising. Financials are also slightly weaker despite a constructive medium-term case for regional banks highlighted in recent commentary about a potentially steeper curve and a friendlier regulatory environment in 2026. For now, the day’s tone is more about year-end positioning than any sector-specific shock.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs are edging down:
- TLT last at 87.47 versus 87.86 prior close.
- IEF at 96.26 versus 96.48.
- SHY is nearly unchanged to slightly lower at 82.835 versus 82.85 prior.
With the 10-year yield above 4% and the 30-year around 4.8%, the pressure on intermediate and long-duration bonds is directionally consistent. The move is not large, but it reinforces the idea that a prolonged Fed pause in early 2026, alongside steady economic data, can keep term yields range-bound with a modest upward bias until new growth or inflation surprises emerge.
Commodities
Precious metals are giving back ground midday:
- GLD last at 397.71 versus 398.89 prior close.
- SLV notably softer at 64.76 versus 68.98.
The divergence, with silver underperforming gold, lines up with a series of reports describing heightened volatility in silver following a sharp multi-month advance. Commentary points to thin holiday liquidity, higher margin requirements, and intense positioning as drivers of two-way action. Analysts have also flagged structural tailwinds—industrial demand linked to AI, tech hardware, and solar—alongside potential policy factors, including discussions about China’s influence over the silver supply chain. Separate coverage noted that gold, silver, and copper have trounced stocks this year and are on pace for their biggest annual percentage gains since 1979, underscoring how large the 2025 commodity move has been even with this week’s pullbacks.
Energy and broad commodities are also lower:
- USO at 69.215 versus 69.74 prior close.
- UNG at 12.226 versus 13.12 prior.
- DBC at 22.405 versus 22.64 prior.
Softness in oil aligns with recent headlines around changing crude flows, including disruptions in Russian shipments to India and the role of major refiners in mediating the decline. While these developments can be idiosyncratic, they contribute to a mixed near-term supply picture and a market still sensitive to policy and sanction dynamics. Natural gas remains weak, consistent with a broader commodities downtick into year-end.
FX and crypto
The euro-dollar pair (EURUSD) prints near 1.174 on the mark price provided. Without a comparable prior close or intraday change, the cross looks broadly steady in the absence of fresh catalysts. The broader macro tone—Fed on hold, inflation expectations anchored, resilient labor—does not argue for abrupt FX moves at this midday snapshot.
Crypto is modestly softer:
- BTCUSD marks around 87,816, below its session open of 88,241 with an intraday range noted in the data.
- ETHUSD around 2,978, modestly below its session open near 2,966, showing contained two-way trade on the day.
While single-asset drivers dominate crypto, the slight risk-off tone across equities and commodities may be contributing to a cautious bias into the holiday.
Notable company and thematic news
- Insider buying: Nike shares have moved higher on insider purchases by the CEO and a director, following a difficult year for the stock. Insider buying can help stabilize sentiment, particularly when external conditions are uncertain. The theme of leadership equity purchases extends to other mega-cap leaders as well, with reports highlighting prominent executives adding to positions late in the year.
- AI and dealmaking: Coverage notes that mega-cap tech companies continue to close AI-related acquisitions into year-end, reinforcing the thesis that 2026 will feature continued capital expenditure and M&A in foundational models and infrastructure. This supports the secular narrative underpinning XLK even as near-term price action consolidates.
- Automakers: Reports indicate General Motors has posted a standout stock performance in 2025 relative to peers, while Tesla issued a cautious sales outlook for Q4 and 2025. These cross-currents reflect a market that is sorting winners and laggards within autos after a volatile year for EVs, hybrids, and legacy platforms.
- Precious metals structure: Multiple pieces chronicle the sharp swings in silver this week and the broader 2025 surge in metals, with some analysts debating whether silver is in a bubble or supported by structural demand and potential policy constraints. For equity and commodity investors, this is a reminder that elevated realized volatility can persist even if the medium-term fundamental case remains intact.
Outlook
As 2025 wraps, near-term focus is on the following:
- Fed policy path: Minutes suggest a pause “for some time,” which places a premium on incoming inflation and labor data. With 5- and 10-year inflation expectations close to 2.4% and 2.34%, respectively, the market is poised to reward data confirming disinflation without growth slippage.
- Labor resilience: Jobless claims trending below expectations indicate ongoing labor tightness. Watch whether January seasonality and post-holiday layoffs alter the signal.
- Earnings setup: While there are no major updates in the immediate window, early 2026 commentary will determine whether consensus growth expectations—particularly in tech capex, AI monetization, and services—are met.
- Commodities volatility: Given the scale of 2025 gains and the recent two-way trade in silver and gold, monitor positioning, margin changes, and potential policy developments affecting supply chains.
Risks
- Policy and fiscal: Headlines warn of the possibility of another government shutdown as Congress returns, which would introduce headline risk and potential delays in data releases or fiscal disbursements.
- Commodity policy shocks: Reports around China’s influence over silver supply raise the risk of export or regulatory actions that could exacerbate price swings.
- Geopolitics and energy flows: Shifts in Russian oil exports and sanction dynamics could inject volatility into crude benchmarks, with spillovers to inflation expectations and rate markets.
- Market structure and leverage: The year’s surge in short-duration options trading and episodes of crowding in commodities underscore the importance of watching liquidity and positioning into thin holiday conditions.
Bottom line
Midday markets are in mild risk-off mode across equities, bonds, and commodities, consistent with a final-session consolidation after a strong year. The macro mosaic—Fed on hold, inflation expectations anchored near target, and resilient labor—remains broadly constructive, but cross-currents in commodities and policy risks argue for maintaining diversification and discipline into early 2026. With breadth modestly weak today and duration under light pressure, price action appears more about calendar effects and profit-taking than a change in trend. The first weeks of 2026 will bring clarity on whether earnings guidance, data momentum, and policy stability can extend the cycle—or whether elevated valuations and commodity volatility temper risk appetite.