State of Market: Midday 01/22/26
Midday market: Stocks advance, precious metals surge, oil eases; crypto lags below round numbers
Equities climb alongside gold and silver as long-end yields remain elevated but stable; November PCE at 2.8% keeps the Fed patient while traders eye Intel earnings and tariff headlines.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Equities are building on the prior session’s rebound into the New York midday, with gains broadening across large and small caps while precious metals extend their leadership. The tone is constructive but measured: rates remain high on the long end of the Treasury curve, oil is softer, and crypto is struggling to regain momentum after slipping through widely watched levels.
By the numbers, the S&P 500 proxy SPY is trading around 690.45, roughly three-quarters of a percent above Wednesday’s close of 685.40. The tech-heavy QQQ is near 621.63 versus 616.28 previously, outpacing broader benchmarks. Blue chips are firm as DIA hovers around 494.91 compared with 490.80 at the prior close. Breadth is favorable, with small caps (IWM near 270.78 versus 267.79) outperforming on a percentage basis. The move suggests investors are incrementally more comfortable adding risk after a volatile start to the week tied to trade rhetoric and shifting macro expectations.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain a central lens for interpreting today’s cross-asset moves. As of the latest available levels for January 20, the 10-year sits at 4.30%, with the 2-year at 3.60%, the 5-year at 3.86%, and the 30-year at 4.91%. The curve configuration—front end below 4% and long end close to 5%—keeps the cost of capital elevated for duration-sensitive assets and helps explain the ongoing push-pull between growth, value, and defensive exposures.
Inflation-wise, the latest data reflected in news coverage shows the Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE inflation, running at 2.8% year-over-year in November, in line with expectations and still modestly above target. That reading, coupled with a CPI index level of 326.03 for December and core CPI at 331.86 (data not seasonally adjusted here), aligns with policymakers remaining cautious about cutting rates rapidly. Consistent with that interpretation, inflation expectations modeled as of January indicate 1-year at about 2.60%, 5-year near 2.33%, 10-year around 2.32%, and 30-year close to 2.45%. Anchored medium- and long-horizon expectations help limit the risk of a sustained re-acceleration, but the absolute level of long-end yields still exerts restraint on multiples.
Today’s price action appears to reconcile those mixed signals: equities are advancing without a sharp decline in yields, while the safety bid is showing up more clearly in precious metals than in Treasurys. Articles this morning also emphasize a steady labor backdrop from jobless claims and a robust third-quarter GDP print of 4.4%, underscoring that growth remains intact even as inflation drifts gradually toward target. That combination supports the “higher-for-longer but not higher-and-higher” narrative that markets have been trying to price.
Equities and sectors: broad gains, tech leadership returns
Index-level moves are constructive. SPY’s climb above its prior close is echoed by QQQ, which is gaining more than SPY midday as investors re-engage with large-cap tech after recent underperformance. DIA participates as well, signaling that cyclical industrials and value exposures are not being abandoned as yields stay elevated.
Under the surface, sector ETFs provided show a modestly pro-cyclical skew:
- Technology (XLK ~145.16 vs. 143.81 prior) is leading, consistent with several articles pointing to renewed enthusiasm around AI-related compute demand. Coverage highlights AMD’s recent multi-session strength as investors lean into CPU share gains in AI servers, while Intel’s rally ahead of tonight’s earnings has raised expectations for the print. These narratives are supportive of semis and compute-adjacent hardware, though they also raise the execution bar.
- Financials (XLF ~53.85 vs. 53.46 prior) are firmer, a logical outcome with the curve stabilizing and spreads reasonably constructive for net interest margins. Commentary from bank leadership on consumer credit health and regulatory proposals remains a watch item, but price action is supportive.
- Health Care (XLV ~158.67 vs. 158.26) is higher but lagging the tape on a relative basis, typical of a risk-on session. Stock-specific news includes confidence in large-cap pipelines and revenue trajectories, but the ETF-level move is modest midday.
- Utilities: The provided sector entry is labeled XLE but carries symbol XLU; using the values shown (last ~43.06 vs. 43.02 prior), utilities are slightly higher. That mild bid can reflect both income-seeking flows and the defensive overlay even as cyclicals advance. Energy-specific data are not provided in the sector set.
Small caps (IWM) are outpacing large caps so far today. That makes sense in a session where macro anxiety abates and traders probe for catch-up beneficiaries of a soft-landing scenario. Articles note that early-year bursts from the Russell 2000 have not always persisted, and some houses still favor large-cap tech over a 12-month horizon. For now, the day’s tape shows coexistence rather than zero-sum rotation: both growth and value pockets can rally together when volatility subsides.
Bonds: a steady bid to duration, front end little changed
Treasuries are quiet to modestly firmer on the day in ETF terms. Long duration (TLT ~87.64 vs. 87.31 prior) is up marginally, while intermediate (IEF ~95.80) is flat and the 1–3 year segment (SHY ~82.81 vs. 82.84) is fractionally lower. That mix is consistent with a market inching toward duration without a decisive macro catalyst, and with long-end yields still near the upper end of recent ranges. With PCE running at 2.8% in November and expectations anchored, investors can tentatively add duration, but the still-high 30-year at 4.91% argues against an aggressive rush.
Commodities: gold and silver extend strength; oil and gas softer
The most conspicuous strength today is in precious metals. GLD trades around 451.25 versus 443.60 yesterday, while SLV near 87.21 is meaningfully higher than 83.96. News flow has emphasized both structural and tactical demand: one house boosted its gold target with central banks and private-sector buyers cited as key demand vectors, while other coverage notes that gold’s path back toward round-number milestones will likely require either renewed geopolitical stress or clearer signs of easing financial conditions. A contrarian take flagged silver’s recent behavior as “tired,” yet today’s action shows outsized gains in SLV relative to GLD, highlighting how positioning and short-term flows can overwhelm narratives in the moment.
Energy is a counterpoint. USO (~71.58 vs. 73.34 prior) is lower, hinting at some cooling in crude benchmarks as supply considerations and risk appetite adjust. Natural gas (UNG ~13.58 vs. 13.64) is a touch softer as well. Broad commodities (DBC ~23.71 vs. 23.75) are fractionally weaker, reflecting the weight from energy despite the metals bid. If oil’s decline endures, it would incrementally help the disinflation process; for now the move appears technical within recent ranges.
FX and crypto: euro edges up; crypto soft with bitcoin below $90K
In currencies, EURUSD sits near 1.1744 versus an open level of about 1.1683, indicating a modest euro bid against the dollar. Recent headlines have pointed to ebbing geopolitical stress after a conciliatory tone around Greenland, which helped reverse a brief volatility spike. Even so, trade policy uncertainty persists and remains a swing factor for FX if rhetoric re-escalates.
Crypto remains fragile. Bitcoin’s mark is near $89.5K midday, shy of the $90K threshold and broadly aligned with reporting that larger holders have been distributing into weakness while some haven-seeking flows rotate elsewhere. Ether trades around $2,958, below an open near $3,020. While industry-specific headlines include new listings activity in the digital-asset infrastructure space, price action indicates a preference for traditional hedges—gold and silver—over crypto during this particular bout of macro noise.
Notable company and theme highlights from the news flow
- AI/semis momentum: Reports highlight AMD’s multi-day hot streak tied to AI CPU demand for data centers and rising optimism into Intel’s results later today. That enthusiasm is feeding into XLK’s leadership. The risk, as always, is the bar rising too far ahead of prints, which could inject volatility if guidance doesn’t confirm hoped-for mix shifts or margin trajectories.
- Mega-cap media/streaming: Netflix remains under pressure as investors parse its 2026 outlook and debate the pending Warner Bros. Discovery transaction’s strategic merits. Competitive dynamics, regulatory considerations, and capital allocation are front and center in that complex setup.
- Industrials and cyclicals: GE’s stock turned lower on slowing revenue growth even after beating on several metrics, a reminder that valuation and rate sensitivity can dominate at this stage of the cycle. Elsewhere, United Airlines reported better-than-expected holiday-quarter profits and momentum into the new year, dovetailing with today’s modest oil softness to support airline cash flow narratives.
- Macro policy and volatility: Articles note that a tariff-fueled volatility spike—the “fear gauge” jump—was quickly erased after a softer tone on Greenland, illustrating how binary headline risk can be. At the same time, pieces argue that such swings are a warning for what lies ahead: episodic volatility that rewards discipline and nimble risk management rather than complacency.
- Inflation and the Fed: With PCE inflation at 2.8% in November and jobless claims pointing to a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, the Fed appears in no rush to cut again. That stance is consistent with today’s mixed signals: equities can grind higher, but the most obvious hedges—precious metals—are also in demand.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Earnings tonight and into next week: Intel’s report looms large for AI infrastructure positioning, semis sentiment, and the near-term leadership of XLK. Execution against expectations for data-center roadmaps, foundry progress, and margin cadence will matter for the broader tape.
- Tariff rhetoric and transatlantic relations: Market participants will monitor any hardening or softening of trade stances around the Greenland dispute. EU responses and the White House tone can quickly influence risk appetite, FX, and cyclicals.
- Rates and inflation: While the most recent PCE read sits at 2.8%, any incremental data or Fed commentary could move long-end yields. Watch for stabilization in the 10-year near 4.3%—a break in either direction could reset equity leadership.
- Commodities leadership: Precious metals’ surge versus energy’s pullback is a notable divergence. If oil continues to ease while gold and silver remain bid, that mix would support the disinflation path and a quality-led equity rally. The reverse could reintroduce stagflation fears.
- Crypto follow-through: Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim $90K midday keeps the near-term tone delicate. A decisive reclaim could restore risk appetite at the margin, while further slippage may reinforce the role of traditional havens in the current environment.
Risks
- Higher-for-longer yields: With the 30-year around 4.91% and the 10-year near 4.30%, valuations remain sensitive. Any upside surprise to inflation could extend pressure on duration and rate-sensitive equities.
- Earnings execution risk: AI-linked expectations are elevated. Disappointments on orders, supply constraints (e.g., in memory or packaging), or capital intensity could trigger sharp rotations.
- Policy and geopolitics: Tariff headlines, regulatory shifts in tech and media, and election-cycle dynamics can spark abrupt risk-off moves and FX volatility.
- Commodity whipsaws: A reversal in oil’s decline or an abrupt cooldown in metals would challenge today’s cross-asset narrative and potentially reprice inflation expectations.
Bottom line: Midway through Thursday’s session, the market is leaning risk-on with a preference for quality growth and small-cap catch-up, while hedges via gold and silver remain firmly in demand. With rates steady but high and the Fed patient, the next leg will likely be set by earnings confirmation—starting with semis tonight—and the tone of tariff-related headlines. Discipline remains key as the tape rewards selectivity and responsiveness to new information.
Equities are building on the prior session’s rebound into the New York midday, with gains broadening across large and small caps while precious metals extend their leadership. The tone is constructive but measured: rates remain high on the long end of the Treasury curve, oil is softer, and crypto is struggling to regain momentum after slipping through widely watched levels.
By the numbers, the S&P 500 proxy SPY is trading around 690.45, roughly three-quarters of a percent above Wednesday’s close of 685.40. The tech-heavy QQQ is near 621.63 versus 616.28 previously, outpacing broader benchmarks. Blue chips are firm as DIA hovers around 494.91 compared with 490.80 at the prior close. Breadth is favorable, with small caps (IWM near 270.78 versus 267.79) outperforming on a percentage basis. The move suggests investors are incrementally more comfortable adding risk after a volatile start to the week tied to trade rhetoric and shifting macro expectations.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain a central lens for interpreting today’s cross-asset moves. As of the latest available levels for January 20, the 10-year sits at 4.30%, with the 2-year at 3.60%, the 5-year at 3.86%, and the 30-year at 4.91%. The curve configuration—front end below 4% and long end close to 5%—keeps the cost of capital elevated for duration-sensitive assets and helps explain the ongoing push-pull between growth, value, and defensive exposures.
Inflation-wise, the latest data reflected in news coverage shows the Fed’s preferred gauge, PCE inflation, running at 2.8% year-over-year in November, in line with expectations and still modestly above target. That reading, coupled with a CPI index level of 326.03 for December and core CPI at 331.86 (data not seasonally adjusted here), aligns with policymakers remaining cautious about cutting rates rapidly. Consistent with that interpretation, inflation expectations modeled as of January indicate 1-year at about 2.60%, 5-year near 2.33%, 10-year around 2.32%, and 30-year close to 2.45%. Anchored medium- and long-horizon expectations help limit the risk of a sustained re-acceleration, but the absolute level of long-end yields still exerts restraint on multiples.
Today’s price action appears to reconcile those mixed signals: equities are advancing without a sharp decline in yields, while the safety bid is showing up more clearly in precious metals than in Treasurys. Articles this morning also emphasize a steady labor backdrop from jobless claims and a robust third-quarter GDP print of 4.4%, underscoring that growth remains intact even as inflation drifts gradually toward target. That combination supports the “higher-for-longer but not higher-and-higher” narrative that markets have been trying to price.
Equities and sectors: broad gains, tech leadership returns
Index-level moves are constructive. SPY’s climb above its prior close is echoed by QQQ, which is gaining more than SPY midday as investors re-engage with large-cap tech after recent underperformance. DIA participates as well, signaling that cyclical industrials and value exposures are not being abandoned as yields stay elevated.
Under the surface, sector ETFs provided show a modestly pro-cyclical skew:
- Technology (XLK ~145.16 vs. 143.81 prior) is leading, consistent with several articles pointing to renewed enthusiasm around AI-related compute demand. Coverage highlights AMD’s recent multi-session strength as investors lean into CPU share gains in AI servers, while Intel’s rally ahead of tonight’s earnings has raised expectations for the print. These narratives are supportive of semis and compute-adjacent hardware, though they also raise the execution bar.
- Financials (XLF ~53.85 vs. 53.46 prior) are firmer, a logical outcome with the curve stabilizing and spreads reasonably constructive for net interest margins. Commentary from bank leadership on consumer credit health and regulatory proposals remains a watch item, but price action is supportive.
- Health Care (XLV ~158.67 vs. 158.26) is higher but lagging the tape on a relative basis, typical of a risk-on session. Stock-specific news includes confidence in large-cap pipelines and revenue trajectories, but the ETF-level move is modest midday.
- Utilities: The provided sector entry is labeled XLE but carries symbol XLU; using the values shown (last ~43.06 vs. 43.02 prior), utilities are slightly higher. That mild bid can reflect both income-seeking flows and the defensive overlay even as cyclicals advance. Energy-specific data are not provided in the sector set.
Small caps (IWM) are outpacing large caps so far today. That makes sense in a session where macro anxiety abates and traders probe for catch-up beneficiaries of a soft-landing scenario. Articles note that early-year bursts from the Russell 2000 have not always persisted, and some houses still favor large-cap tech over a 12-month horizon. For now, the day’s tape shows coexistence rather than zero-sum rotation: both growth and value pockets can rally together when volatility subsides.
Bonds: a steady bid to duration, front end little changed
Treasuries are quiet to modestly firmer on the day in ETF terms. Long duration (TLT ~87.64 vs. 87.31 prior) is up marginally, while intermediate (IEF ~95.80) is flat and the 1–3 year segment (SHY ~82.81 vs. 82.84) is fractionally lower. That mix is consistent with a market inching toward duration without a decisive macro catalyst, and with long-end yields still near the upper end of recent ranges. With PCE running at 2.8% in November and expectations anchored, investors can tentatively add duration, but the still-high 30-year at 4.91% argues against an aggressive rush.
Commodities: gold and silver extend strength; oil and gas softer
The most conspicuous strength today is in precious metals. GLD trades around 451.25 versus 443.60 yesterday, while SLV near 87.21 is meaningfully higher than 83.96. News flow has emphasized both structural and tactical demand: one house boosted its gold target with central banks and private-sector buyers cited as key demand vectors, while other coverage notes that gold’s path back toward round-number milestones will likely require either renewed geopolitical stress or clearer signs of easing financial conditions. A contrarian take flagged silver’s recent behavior as “tired,” yet today’s action shows outsized gains in SLV relative to GLD, highlighting how positioning and short-term flows can overwhelm narratives in the moment.
Energy is a counterpoint. USO (~71.58 vs. 73.34 prior) is lower, hinting at some cooling in crude benchmarks as supply considerations and risk appetite adjust. Natural gas (UNG ~13.58 vs. 13.64) is a touch softer as well. Broad commodities (DBC ~23.71 vs. 23.75) are fractionally weaker, reflecting the weight from energy despite the metals bid. If oil’s decline endures, it would incrementally help the disinflation process; for now the move appears technical within recent ranges.
FX and crypto: euro edges up; crypto soft with bitcoin below $90K
In currencies, EURUSD sits near 1.1744 versus an open level of about 1.1683, indicating a modest euro bid against the dollar. Recent headlines have pointed to ebbing geopolitical stress after a conciliatory tone around Greenland, which helped reverse a brief volatility spike. Even so, trade policy uncertainty persists and remains a swing factor for FX if rhetoric re-escalates.
Crypto remains fragile. Bitcoin’s mark is near $89.5K midday, shy of the $90K threshold and broadly aligned with reporting that larger holders have been distributing into weakness while some haven-seeking flows rotate elsewhere. Ether trades around $2,958, below an open near $3,020. While industry-specific headlines include new listings activity in the digital-asset infrastructure space, price action indicates a preference for traditional hedges—gold and silver—over crypto during this particular bout of macro noise.
Notable company and theme highlights from the news flow
- AI/semis momentum: Reports highlight AMD’s multi-day hot streak tied to AI CPU demand for data centers and rising optimism into Intel’s results later today. That enthusiasm is feeding into XLK’s leadership. The risk, as always, is the bar rising too far ahead of prints, which could inject volatility if guidance doesn’t confirm hoped-for mix shifts or margin trajectories.
- Mega-cap media/streaming: Netflix remains under pressure as investors parse its 2026 outlook and debate the pending Warner Bros. Discovery transaction’s strategic merits. Competitive dynamics, regulatory considerations, and capital allocation are front and center in that complex setup.
- Industrials and cyclicals: GE’s stock turned lower on slowing revenue growth even after beating on several metrics, a reminder that valuation and rate sensitivity can dominate at this stage of the cycle. Elsewhere, United Airlines reported better-than-expected holiday-quarter profits and momentum into the new year, dovetailing with today’s modest oil softness to support airline cash flow narratives.
- Macro policy and volatility: Articles note that a tariff-fueled volatility spike—the “fear gauge” jump—was quickly erased after a softer tone on Greenland, illustrating how binary headline risk can be. At the same time, pieces argue that such swings are a warning for what lies ahead: episodic volatility that rewards discipline and nimble risk management rather than complacency.
- Inflation and the Fed: With PCE inflation at 2.8% in November and jobless claims pointing to a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market, the Fed appears in no rush to cut again. That stance is consistent with today’s mixed signals: equities can grind higher, but the most obvious hedges—precious metals—are also in demand.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Earnings tonight and into next week: Intel’s report looms large for AI infrastructure positioning, semis sentiment, and the near-term leadership of XLK. Execution against expectations for data-center roadmaps, foundry progress, and margin cadence will matter for the broader tape.
- Tariff rhetoric and transatlantic relations: Market participants will monitor any hardening or softening of trade stances around the Greenland dispute. EU responses and the White House tone can quickly influence risk appetite, FX, and cyclicals.
- Rates and inflation: While the most recent PCE read sits at 2.8%, any incremental data or Fed commentary could move long-end yields. Watch for stabilization in the 10-year near 4.3%—a break in either direction could reset equity leadership.
- Commodities leadership: Precious metals’ surge versus energy’s pullback is a notable divergence. If oil continues to ease while gold and silver remain bid, that mix would support the disinflation path and a quality-led equity rally. The reverse could reintroduce stagflation fears.
- Crypto follow-through: Bitcoin’s inability to reclaim $90K midday keeps the near-term tone delicate. A decisive reclaim could restore risk appetite at the margin, while further slippage may reinforce the role of traditional havens in the current environment.
Risks
- Higher-for-longer yields: With the 30-year around 4.91% and the 10-year near 4.30%, valuations remain sensitive. Any upside surprise to inflation could extend pressure on duration and rate-sensitive equities.
- Earnings execution risk: AI-linked expectations are elevated. Disappointments on orders, supply constraints (e.g., in memory or packaging), or capital intensity could trigger sharp rotations.
- Policy and geopolitics: Tariff headlines, regulatory shifts in tech and media, and election-cycle dynamics can spark abrupt risk-off moves and FX volatility.
- Commodity whipsaws: A reversal in oil’s decline or an abrupt cooldown in metals would challenge today’s cross-asset narrative and potentially reprice inflation expectations.
Bottom line: Midway through Thursday’s session, the market is leaning risk-on with a preference for quality growth and small-cap catch-up, while hedges via gold and silver remain firmly in demand. With rates steady but high and the Fed patient, the next leg will likely be set by earnings confirmation—starting with semis tonight—and the tone of tariff-related headlines. Discipline remains key as the tape rewards selectivity and responsiveness to new information.