State of Market: Midday 01/23/26
Midday market mixed: Tech edges higher as small caps and cyclicals lag; metals and energy surge while yields hold steady
QQQ builds on recent tech strength even as DIA and IWM retreat; gold, silver, oil and gas advance broadly amid winter storm headlines and ongoing safe-haven demand; macro backdrop steady with 10-year near 4.26% and PCE at 2.8%
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Equities are trading mixed at midday Friday, with megacap tech showing modest outperformance while small caps and cyclicals slip. The tone reflects a steady macro backdrop—Treasury yields are broadly unchanged from midweek levels, inflation expectations are anchored in the low- to mid‑2% range—and strong cross-asset moves in commodities, where precious and energy complexes are leading. Several stock‑specific headlines around semiconductors, autos, media and e‑commerce are shaping sector leadership as investors digest a heavy week of corporate news and macro updates.
At the index level, the Nasdaq‑100 proxy QQQ is modestly higher, up about 0.4% versus Thursday’s close, while the S&P 500 proxy SPY is flat on the day. In contrast, the Dow proxy DIA is off roughly 0.7% and small caps (IWM) are underperforming, down nearly 1.8%. Sector breadth is mixed: technology (XLK) is slightly positive, while financials (XLF), energy (XLE), and health care (XLV) are lower. Outside of equities, commodities are bid: gold (GLD) and especially silver (SLV) are extending gains, while crude (USO), natural gas (UNG), and broad commodities (DBC) all trade higher. Bitcoin and ether are firmer intraday after a volatile stretch this week.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain contained versus earlier in the week. The curve shows the 2‑year at about 3.60%, the 5‑year at 3.83%, the 10‑year near 4.26% and the 30‑year around 4.87% (all as of January 21). That broad stability has coincided with a slower tape in rate‑sensitive equities and largely flat price action in duration proxies: TLT, IEF, and SHY are each near unchanged on the session.
On inflation, the most recent PCE reading came in at 2.8% for November, with reporting noting the rate edging further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and MarketWatch similarly characterizing inflation as still stuck near 3%. The CPI and core CPI price indexes for December show the level of the series (CPI 326.03; core CPI 331.86) but do not on their own imply the month‑to‑month rate. Inflation expectations models are steady: 1‑year at roughly 2.60%, 5‑year at ~2.33% and 10‑year near 2.32% as of January, consistent with a market view of medium‑term inflation anchored modestly above target.
Economic activity indicators are mixed. Third‑quarter real GDP growth was reported at a robust 4.4%, signaling strong momentum late last year, while an S&P Global survey cited by MarketWatch points to some cooling early in 2026, with tariffs weighing on growth and hiring. Altogether, the macro mosaic—steady yields, anchored expectations, and mixed activity—helps explain today’s balanced but rotational equity tape.
Equities and sectors
- SPY is unchanged at 688.98, a flat read versus the prior close. Under the surface, leadership favors technology while cyclicals and small caps lag.
- QQQ trades at 623.25 versus 620.76 Thursday, up about 0.4%, extending a two‑day run in tech after this week’s volatility.
- DIA is softer at 490.17, down approximately 0.7% versus 493.69. The downdraft aligns with relative weakness in financials and health care.
- IWM is at 264.96, down about 1.8% from 269.79, reflecting risk rotation away from domestically oriented small caps.
By sector:
- XLK is fractionally higher at 145.18 versus 144.88 (+0.2%). Semiconductor headlines remain central to tech sentiment: MarketWatch notes AMD shares have been on a strong streak on growing AI server CPU optimism, while Intel delivered a reality check after a run‑up, with commentary failing to meet elevated expectations and shares headed for their worst drop in roughly a year and a half. Separately, a report that China has allowed major firms including Alibaba to buy Nvidia chips suggests improving market access, though the stock reaction was not detailed. On the platform side, CNBC highlights TikTok’s formation of a U.S. joint venture and naming of a CEO, another catalyst for large‑cap internet ecosystem debates.
- XLF is down around 1.6% at 52.95 (vs 53.81). With the 10‑year largely steady, the move appears more idiosyncratic than rate‑driven today. No sector‑wide catalyst was cited beyond broad rotation.
- XLE is modestly lower at 42.43 (vs 42.71, −0.7%) despite a supportive tape in crude. Notably, MarketWatch reports SLB delivered its biggest profit beat in three years, with shares rallying toward a near two‑year high, highlighting positive earnings dispersion within energy services even as the sector ETF dips midday.
- XLV is off about 0.9% at 156.83 versus 158.29 amid mixed health‑care flows and no single dominant headline in the group at midday.
Single‑name highlights from the news flow include: Intel’s post‑earnings stumble (MarketWatch), AMD’s momentum (MarketWatch), Nvidia’s China access narrative (MarketWatch), Tesla’s “robotaxi” milestone and a separate Optimus robots comment (MarketWatch), Amazon reportedly preparing another wave of job cuts (MarketWatch), GE’s stock turning lower after slowing revenue growth (MarketWatch), and Alibaba premarket strength on an AI chip IPO report (MarketWatch). In media, Netflix remains under pressure amid investor concerns about its Warner Bros. bid and 2026 guidance (MarketWatch), even as Bloomberg notes Netflix shifted its offer terms to an all‑cash bid. Paramount’s counter‑messaging continues (MarketWatch; CNBC). These cross‑currents help explain day‑to‑day dispersion within communication services and consumer discretionary despite relatively calm index‑level volatility today.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs are little changed:
- TLT at 87.68 vs 87.69 (flat)
- IEF at 95.80 vs 95.79 (flat)
- SHY at 82.84 vs 82.81 (+0.03%)
The stall in rates aligns with an inflation picture that, per Thursday reporting, remains near 3% on the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge and with inflation expectations anchored in the low‑2s further out. With 10‑year yields near 4.26% as of January 21, the price action in duration looks more consolidative than directional today.
Commodities
The commodity complex is a focal point at midday.
- GLD is up about 1.3% to 457.69 versus 451.79, supported by persistent investor and central‑bank demand themes noted in multiple reports. MarketWatch cites RBC’s view that gold approaching $5,000 could go higher in a true risk‑off scenario, while Bloomberg and MarketWatch highlight Goldman Sachs lifting its year‑end target to $5,400 and flagging private‑sector demand as a growing driver. CNBC underscores the risk‑management dimension, discussing the “best way to own” gold at record levels.
- SLV gains roughly 5.2% to 91.66 versus 87.13, continuing a powerful advance. MarketWatch notes silver topped $100/oz for the first time, though some contrarian commentary suggests the move could be tiring. Bloomberg observes China’s silver exports have remained robust despite fears of curbs, an additional nuance for supply‑demand dynamics.
- USO climbs about 2.7% to 73.79 (vs 71.82), tracking crude strength.
- UNG rises roughly 3.9% to 13.96 (vs 13.43) as weather remains the dominant driver. MarketWatch describes a “historic” multi‑session price surge as the U.S. braces for a winter storm, though another MarketWatch piece cites Goldman Sachs’ view that the spike reflects a temporary imbalance likely to correct. Ancillary to energy demand and logistics, MarketWatch reports nearly 2,000 U.S. flight cancellations ahead of the storm.
- DBC, a broad commodities proxy, is up about 1.8% to 24.17 (vs 23.74), reflecting the generalized bid across hard assets.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD is firmer intraday at about 1.17883 versus its reported open level, indicating modest dollar softness into midday.
- BTCUSD marks near 90,775, up about 1% versus its open today, with a range between roughly 88,408 and 91,155. MarketWatch noted on Thursday that bitcoin fell below $90,000 as larger holders sold and haven flows shifted elsewhere; today’s bounce is consistent with a choppy, range‑bound profile.
- ETHUSD trades around 2,992, up roughly 0.6% on the session, in a 2,887–3,017 range.
Notable movers and narratives from headlines
- Semiconductors: AMD’s momentum contrasts with Intel’s post‑earnings reality check (MarketWatch). A separate MarketWatch report indicates Nvidia’s China access may be improving, potentially easing a key overhang for AI‑exposed chip demand, while another item highlights bullish views on Micron’s earnings power into 2027.
- Autos and AI: Tesla shares “popped” on progress toward a robotaxi milestone (MarketWatch), with a separate piece noting Elon Musk’s commentary on consumer‑market robots later in the decade.
- Energy services: SLB delivered its biggest profit beat in three years (MarketWatch), supporting outperformance in select oilfield services despite mixed energy ETF performance.
- Media and platforms: Netflix’s stock remains pressured amid skepticism around its Warner Bros. bid and 2026 guidance (MarketWatch), even as Bloomberg details a shift to an all‑cash offer; Paramount continues to lean on regulatory and competitive arguments (MarketWatch, CNBC). TikTok finalized a U.S. joint venture and named a CEO (CNBC), another development in the broader platform landscape.
- Retail and e‑commerce: MarketWatch reports Amazon is preparing another wave of job cuts. CNBC describes Google’s push into agentic commerce as retailers adapt to new shopping modalities.
Outlook
Into the afternoon and early next week, investors will watch for:
- Follow‑through in commodity strength—particularly whether gold/silver retain leadership and whether natural gas normalizes as weather impacts pass, as suggested by Goldman Sachs.
- Sector rotation within equities as tech resilience is tested against small‑cap and cyclical weakness.
- Any incremental guidance from companies at the heart of this week’s headlines (semiconductors, energy services, autos, media/streaming).
- Macro updates that could shift the rate narrative from its current stasis, including any fresh inflation or growth surveys that corroborate (or contradict) S&P Global’s cooling signal.
Risks
- Policy volatility: Trade/tariff headlines and policy pivots can quickly alter risk sentiment and sector leadership, as recent news flow has shown.
- Earnings and guidance risk: As Intel’s experience underscores, elevated expectations can meet harsher realities, driving outsized single‑stock and sector moves.
- Liquidity/weather shocks: The winter storm’s logistics disruptions could amplify near‑term volatility in energy and transport‑related equities.
- Inflation stickiness: With PCE near 2.8% and CPI levels elevated, any upside surprises could reprice rate expectations and weigh on duration‑sensitive assets.
Bottom line: With yields steady and inflation expectations anchored, the midday tape is characterized by rotation rather than a broad risk‑on or risk‑off impulse. Tech’s modest leadership and strength in commodities offset weakness in small caps and cyclicals. The afternoon session will likely hinge on whether sector rotations deepen or converge, and whether commodity momentum extends into the close.
Equities are trading mixed at midday Friday, with megacap tech showing modest outperformance while small caps and cyclicals slip. The tone reflects a steady macro backdrop—Treasury yields are broadly unchanged from midweek levels, inflation expectations are anchored in the low- to mid‑2% range—and strong cross-asset moves in commodities, where precious and energy complexes are leading. Several stock‑specific headlines around semiconductors, autos, media and e‑commerce are shaping sector leadership as investors digest a heavy week of corporate news and macro updates.
At the index level, the Nasdaq‑100 proxy QQQ is modestly higher, up about 0.4% versus Thursday’s close, while the S&P 500 proxy SPY is flat on the day. In contrast, the Dow proxy DIA is off roughly 0.7% and small caps (IWM) are underperforming, down nearly 1.8%. Sector breadth is mixed: technology (XLK) is slightly positive, while financials (XLF), energy (XLE), and health care (XLV) are lower. Outside of equities, commodities are bid: gold (GLD) and especially silver (SLV) are extending gains, while crude (USO), natural gas (UNG), and broad commodities (DBC) all trade higher. Bitcoin and ether are firmer intraday after a volatile stretch this week.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain contained versus earlier in the week. The curve shows the 2‑year at about 3.60%, the 5‑year at 3.83%, the 10‑year near 4.26% and the 30‑year around 4.87% (all as of January 21). That broad stability has coincided with a slower tape in rate‑sensitive equities and largely flat price action in duration proxies: TLT, IEF, and SHY are each near unchanged on the session.
On inflation, the most recent PCE reading came in at 2.8% for November, with reporting noting the rate edging further away from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and MarketWatch similarly characterizing inflation as still stuck near 3%. The CPI and core CPI price indexes for December show the level of the series (CPI 326.03; core CPI 331.86) but do not on their own imply the month‑to‑month rate. Inflation expectations models are steady: 1‑year at roughly 2.60%, 5‑year at ~2.33% and 10‑year near 2.32% as of January, consistent with a market view of medium‑term inflation anchored modestly above target.
Economic activity indicators are mixed. Third‑quarter real GDP growth was reported at a robust 4.4%, signaling strong momentum late last year, while an S&P Global survey cited by MarketWatch points to some cooling early in 2026, with tariffs weighing on growth and hiring. Altogether, the macro mosaic—steady yields, anchored expectations, and mixed activity—helps explain today’s balanced but rotational equity tape.
Equities and sectors
- SPY is unchanged at 688.98, a flat read versus the prior close. Under the surface, leadership favors technology while cyclicals and small caps lag.
- QQQ trades at 623.25 versus 620.76 Thursday, up about 0.4%, extending a two‑day run in tech after this week’s volatility.
- DIA is softer at 490.17, down approximately 0.7% versus 493.69. The downdraft aligns with relative weakness in financials and health care.
- IWM is at 264.96, down about 1.8% from 269.79, reflecting risk rotation away from domestically oriented small caps.
By sector:
- XLK is fractionally higher at 145.18 versus 144.88 (+0.2%). Semiconductor headlines remain central to tech sentiment: MarketWatch notes AMD shares have been on a strong streak on growing AI server CPU optimism, while Intel delivered a reality check after a run‑up, with commentary failing to meet elevated expectations and shares headed for their worst drop in roughly a year and a half. Separately, a report that China has allowed major firms including Alibaba to buy Nvidia chips suggests improving market access, though the stock reaction was not detailed. On the platform side, CNBC highlights TikTok’s formation of a U.S. joint venture and naming of a CEO, another catalyst for large‑cap internet ecosystem debates.
- XLF is down around 1.6% at 52.95 (vs 53.81). With the 10‑year largely steady, the move appears more idiosyncratic than rate‑driven today. No sector‑wide catalyst was cited beyond broad rotation.
- XLE is modestly lower at 42.43 (vs 42.71, −0.7%) despite a supportive tape in crude. Notably, MarketWatch reports SLB delivered its biggest profit beat in three years, with shares rallying toward a near two‑year high, highlighting positive earnings dispersion within energy services even as the sector ETF dips midday.
- XLV is off about 0.9% at 156.83 versus 158.29 amid mixed health‑care flows and no single dominant headline in the group at midday.
Single‑name highlights from the news flow include: Intel’s post‑earnings stumble (MarketWatch), AMD’s momentum (MarketWatch), Nvidia’s China access narrative (MarketWatch), Tesla’s “robotaxi” milestone and a separate Optimus robots comment (MarketWatch), Amazon reportedly preparing another wave of job cuts (MarketWatch), GE’s stock turning lower after slowing revenue growth (MarketWatch), and Alibaba premarket strength on an AI chip IPO report (MarketWatch). In media, Netflix remains under pressure amid investor concerns about its Warner Bros. bid and 2026 guidance (MarketWatch), even as Bloomberg notes Netflix shifted its offer terms to an all‑cash bid. Paramount’s counter‑messaging continues (MarketWatch; CNBC). These cross‑currents help explain day‑to‑day dispersion within communication services and consumer discretionary despite relatively calm index‑level volatility today.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs are little changed:
- TLT at 87.68 vs 87.69 (flat)
- IEF at 95.80 vs 95.79 (flat)
- SHY at 82.84 vs 82.81 (+0.03%)
The stall in rates aligns with an inflation picture that, per Thursday reporting, remains near 3% on the Fed’s preferred PCE gauge and with inflation expectations anchored in the low‑2s further out. With 10‑year yields near 4.26% as of January 21, the price action in duration looks more consolidative than directional today.
Commodities
The commodity complex is a focal point at midday.
- GLD is up about 1.3% to 457.69 versus 451.79, supported by persistent investor and central‑bank demand themes noted in multiple reports. MarketWatch cites RBC’s view that gold approaching $5,000 could go higher in a true risk‑off scenario, while Bloomberg and MarketWatch highlight Goldman Sachs lifting its year‑end target to $5,400 and flagging private‑sector demand as a growing driver. CNBC underscores the risk‑management dimension, discussing the “best way to own” gold at record levels.
- SLV gains roughly 5.2% to 91.66 versus 87.13, continuing a powerful advance. MarketWatch notes silver topped $100/oz for the first time, though some contrarian commentary suggests the move could be tiring. Bloomberg observes China’s silver exports have remained robust despite fears of curbs, an additional nuance for supply‑demand dynamics.
- USO climbs about 2.7% to 73.79 (vs 71.82), tracking crude strength.
- UNG rises roughly 3.9% to 13.96 (vs 13.43) as weather remains the dominant driver. MarketWatch describes a “historic” multi‑session price surge as the U.S. braces for a winter storm, though another MarketWatch piece cites Goldman Sachs’ view that the spike reflects a temporary imbalance likely to correct. Ancillary to energy demand and logistics, MarketWatch reports nearly 2,000 U.S. flight cancellations ahead of the storm.
- DBC, a broad commodities proxy, is up about 1.8% to 24.17 (vs 23.74), reflecting the generalized bid across hard assets.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD is firmer intraday at about 1.17883 versus its reported open level, indicating modest dollar softness into midday.
- BTCUSD marks near 90,775, up about 1% versus its open today, with a range between roughly 88,408 and 91,155. MarketWatch noted on Thursday that bitcoin fell below $90,000 as larger holders sold and haven flows shifted elsewhere; today’s bounce is consistent with a choppy, range‑bound profile.
- ETHUSD trades around 2,992, up roughly 0.6% on the session, in a 2,887–3,017 range.
Notable movers and narratives from headlines
- Semiconductors: AMD’s momentum contrasts with Intel’s post‑earnings reality check (MarketWatch). A separate MarketWatch report indicates Nvidia’s China access may be improving, potentially easing a key overhang for AI‑exposed chip demand, while another item highlights bullish views on Micron’s earnings power into 2027.
- Autos and AI: Tesla shares “popped” on progress toward a robotaxi milestone (MarketWatch), with a separate piece noting Elon Musk’s commentary on consumer‑market robots later in the decade.
- Energy services: SLB delivered its biggest profit beat in three years (MarketWatch), supporting outperformance in select oilfield services despite mixed energy ETF performance.
- Media and platforms: Netflix’s stock remains pressured amid skepticism around its Warner Bros. bid and 2026 guidance (MarketWatch), even as Bloomberg details a shift to an all‑cash offer; Paramount continues to lean on regulatory and competitive arguments (MarketWatch, CNBC). TikTok finalized a U.S. joint venture and named a CEO (CNBC), another development in the broader platform landscape.
- Retail and e‑commerce: MarketWatch reports Amazon is preparing another wave of job cuts. CNBC describes Google’s push into agentic commerce as retailers adapt to new shopping modalities.
Outlook
Into the afternoon and early next week, investors will watch for:
- Follow‑through in commodity strength—particularly whether gold/silver retain leadership and whether natural gas normalizes as weather impacts pass, as suggested by Goldman Sachs.
- Sector rotation within equities as tech resilience is tested against small‑cap and cyclical weakness.
- Any incremental guidance from companies at the heart of this week’s headlines (semiconductors, energy services, autos, media/streaming).
- Macro updates that could shift the rate narrative from its current stasis, including any fresh inflation or growth surveys that corroborate (or contradict) S&P Global’s cooling signal.
Risks
- Policy volatility: Trade/tariff headlines and policy pivots can quickly alter risk sentiment and sector leadership, as recent news flow has shown.
- Earnings and guidance risk: As Intel’s experience underscores, elevated expectations can meet harsher realities, driving outsized single‑stock and sector moves.
- Liquidity/weather shocks: The winter storm’s logistics disruptions could amplify near‑term volatility in energy and transport‑related equities.
- Inflation stickiness: With PCE near 2.8% and CPI levels elevated, any upside surprises could reprice rate expectations and weigh on duration‑sensitive assets.
Bottom line: With yields steady and inflation expectations anchored, the midday tape is characterized by rotation rather than a broad risk‑on or risk‑off impulse. Tech’s modest leadership and strength in commodities offset weakness in small caps and cyclicals. The afternoon session will likely hinge on whether sector rotations deepen or converge, and whether commodity momentum extends into the close.