State of Market: Midday 01/15/26
Midday Market: Equities Push Higher as Tech and Small Caps Lead; Oil and Precious Metals Ease While Bitcoin Holds Near $96K
Long-end yields remain elevated, banks firm on earnings, and semis digest TSMC strength with a rotation under the hood
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Stocks are broadly higher at midday Thursday, with gains spanning mega-cap tech and economically sensitive small caps. The tone is constructive despite a mixed macro backdrop of still-elevated long-end Treasury yields and softer commodity prices. Sector moves reflect a risk-on bias led by technology and financials, while health care lags on deal headlines and idiosyncratic news flow.
Across the major U.S. equity proxies, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up versus Wednesday’s close, trading at 694.91 against a prior 690.36, a gain of roughly 0.66%. The Nasdaq-100 proxy (QQQ) is stronger, up about 1.04% to 626.02 from 619.55. Blue chips are firmer as well, with the Dow tracker (DIA) up near 0.79% at 495.46 from 491.58. The small-cap Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is outperforming on a percentage basis, higher by about 1.27% to 266.53 from 263.19. The advance suggests investors are leaning into cyclical and growth exposures simultaneously, a mix that often appears when earnings season begins to clarify fundamental trends.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain a central input to risk appetite. The latest readings put the 2-year at roughly 3.53%, the 5-year near 3.75%, the 10-year at about 4.18%, and the 30-year around 4.83%. CNBC noted this morning that yields nudged higher as investors monitored geopolitical headlines, reinforcing that the long end remains the pressure point for duration-sensitive assets. Even so, the equity tape is absorbing that rate setting, likely helped by favorable reads on the labor market and a constructive start to corporate earnings.
On inflation, the most recent CPI print in December shows headline at 326.03 (index level) and core CPI at 331.86. Forward-looking inflation expectations, however, appear anchored: model-based estimates sit around 2.60% for 1-year and near 2.33% and 2.32% for 5- and 10-years, respectively (2.45% at 30-years). That combination—still-firm realized inflation but anchored expectations—helps explain why markets can accommodate elevated nominal yields without derailing risk appetite.
Fresh data points add nuance. Jobless claims slipped below the 200,000 threshold for only the second time in a year, suggesting a tentative improvement in a labor market that had shown signs of cooling. At the same time, the Fed’s Beige Book captured businesses beginning to pass along tariff-related cost increases, with most districts seeing higher input costs outside of two that reported slight price growth. The net effect is an economy that continues to “chug ahead,” as one retail sales recap put it, with the consumer resilient but cost pressures still percolating beneath the surface.
Equities and sectors: tech leadership, banks firm, health care drags
Within sectors, technology is setting the pace. The sector ETF (XLK) trades at 147.00, up about 1.59% from 144.70. Under the hood, the semiconductor complex is digesting a strong TSMC quarter and higher 2026 AI capex guidance. One account characterized TSMC’s fourth quarter as a “thumping” beat with a big revenue milestone and increased AI-related spending plans. That’s broadly supportive for chip supply chains. However, another piece noted Nvidia’s stock has lagged certain chip peers this year following the TSMC print, reflecting a rotation toward memory names and already well-trodden narratives in leading AI beneficiaries. The net take for tech today is constructive breadth with some rotation beneath the surface as investors calibrate where incremental upside may be strongest.
Financials are participating. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is at 54.47, up roughly 0.58% from 54.15. The group is finding support in a mix of earnings and macro. Bank of America edged past expectations and struck a bullish tone on the U.S. economy. Citigroup shares rose despite a profit miss, with management pointing to previously disclosed Russia-related charges as a key driver. Goldman Sachs beat profit estimates but saw revenue fall for the first time in two years, with its Apple Card exposure flagged as a headwind, and Wells Fargo missed on revenue even as it set a new profit target. Despite the idiosyncratic results, the sector is handling long-end yields near 4.8% on the 30-year relatively well—a level that can help net interest margins but still tests credit-sensitive areas. Strategists at one firm also reiterated that banks, which led last year, could remain a favored sector in 2026—a narrative today’s steady tape seems to support.
Health care is lagging. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) is down about 0.72% to 156.73 from 157.86. The sector is digesting a significant deal: Boston Scientific’s plan to acquire Penumbra for $14.5 billion to expand into fast-growing vascular segments. While M&A can be supportive longer term, near-term dispersion between acquirers, targets, and peers often pressures the broader basket, especially when weight-loss drug dynamics and pipeline headlines complicate sentiment.
Energy is higher alongside equities even as oil prices ease. The energy ETF (XLE) trades around 43.68, up about 1.18% from 43.17. Oil proxies are softer following headlines that the U.S. could hold off on attacking Iran, which coincided with a pullback of nearly 2% in crude on Wednesday. Today, the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) is down roughly 1.40% to 71.59 from 72.61. The sector’s resilience despite the commodity move may reflect positioning, dividend support, and incremental news like the resumption of construction on a major New York offshore wind project, which feeds through to energy infrastructure and services demand over time. Elsewhere in energy, BP’s renewables write-off highlights the continuing rationalization of portfolios as majors balance returns, transition targets, and capital discipline.
Small caps and cyclicals: why the bid today?
The Russell 2000’s 1.27% gain points to improving breadth. Falling mortgage rates—reported at the lowest level in more than three years—are reinvigorating housing activity, a tailwind for construction, building products, and local services that populate small-cap indices. Coupled with firm consumer data from the delayed November retail sales report and a sub-200,000 jobless claims print, investors have reason to express a cyclical bias even with long-end yields still elevated.
Bonds: curve dynamics remain pivotal
Bond ETFs reflect a modestly mixed duration trade. The long-duration U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) is up about 0.23% at 88.54 from 88.33, while the 7–10 year proxy (IEF) is slightly lower by roughly 0.08% to 96.42 from 96.50 and the 1–3 year note ETF (SHY) is fractionally lower at 82.83 from 82.87. With the 10-year near 4.18% and the 30-year around 4.83%, the long end remains the swing factor for equity valuations, financials’ net interest margins, and housing affordability. The anchored medium- to long-term inflation expectations help limit fears of a renewed inflation breakout, but the Beige Book’s tariff pass-through highlights a sticky floor under certain price categories.
Commodities: precious metals cool, oil slips, nat gas firms
Precious metals are modestly softer. The gold ETF (GLD) is down about 0.35% to 424.45 from 425.94. Silver (SLV) is lower by roughly 0.68% to 83.98 from 84.56. This pullback follows a strong run, with silver having recently cleared a psychological $90 milestone and miners rallying alongside, according to recent coverage. Strategists at Goldman have also cautioned that gold’s popularity as a diversifier may be misplaced in certain portfolio contexts, a view that resonates with today’s mild giveback. Industrial metals, including aluminum and copper, have also stabilized after a bull run into 2026, and the broad commodity basket (DBC) is down about 0.38% to 23.30 from 23.39, consistent with the softer oil tape and a brief pause in base metals momentum.
Energy commodities are mixed. USO’s decline lines up with geopolitical de-escalation headlines, while natural gas (UNG) is up about 1.07% to 10.35 from 10.24, a reminder that winter demand variability and storage dynamics can diverge from crude-specific drivers.
FX and crypto: dollar firms modestly as crypto holds gains
In currencies, the euro is modestly softer against the dollar midday, with EURUSD near 1.1610 after opening around 1.1633. The intraday range spans roughly 1.1597 to 1.1639. A marginally firmer dollar is directionally consistent with the U.S. long end holding near cycle-high levels and with near-term growth data surprising positively.
Crypto is steady after a sharp squeeze earlier in the week. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is near 96,138, within a 24-hour range of about 95,366 to 97,225, and little changed from an open near 96,308. Bloomberg reported that the recent rally wiped out roughly $600 million of bearish bets, underscoring still-elevated positioning and liquidity dynamics. Ether (ETHUSD) is trading around 3,300 within a 3,283 to 3,386 band. For equities, crypto stability tends to support risk sentiment at the margin, particularly for high-beta tech.
Notable corporate and policy developments
Semiconductors remain in focus after TSMC delivered a blowout quarter, raised revenue guidance, and boosted AI capex plans for 2026—constructive for supply chains and AI infrastructure beneficiaries. However, leadership within chips is rotating; commentary highlighted that Nvidia has lagged memory peers this year, reflecting a reassessment of where incremental growth and valuation support reside following last year’s outperformance.
Financial sector headlines continue to shape flows. BlackRock’s assets under management reached a record $14 trillion as it leans further into private markets, providing a supportive backdrop for asset managers and the broader financial complex. Bank of America’s beat and bullish economic outlook contrasted with Goldman’s revenue dip linked to Apple Card exposure and Wells Fargo’s revenue miss, while Citigroup’s stock reaction improved despite a profit miss tied to Russia-related charges—a reminder that narrative and guidance often matter as much as reported figures.
In health care, Boston Scientific’s agreement to acquire Penumbra for $14.5 billion expands its vascular footprint, consistent with a strategy of targeting fast-growing niches. The sector ETF is down today, but deal flow and pipeline progress remain the primary drivers of medium-term performance.
Policy and geopolitics remain active. Businesses across most Fed districts now report passing tariff costs to customers, complicating the inflation picture even as expectations remain anchored. In geopolitics, oil eased after signals that the U.S. may not escalate militarily with Iran in the near term, lowering an immediate risk premium in crude. Separately, China’s reported ban on certain foreign cybersecurity software pressured the group, highlighting ongoing U.S.-China tech frictions. And in the energy transition, a New York offshore wind project is set to resume construction after a judicial ruling, supporting medium-term infrastructure activity.
Outlook
With long-end yields elevated, equity leadership is likely to remain sensitive to rate moves and earnings guidance. The tech tape appears supported by AI infrastructure demand, but rotations within semis and software are likely as investors reprice relative winners and laggards. Financials should continue to take their cue from net interest margin signals and credit quality commentary, while health care digests deal flow and weight-loss drug adoption dynamics. On the macro side, watch for confirmation that jobless claims’ dip below 200,000 reflects genuine labor-market stabilization and whether mortgage rate declines sustain the budding housing rebound.
Key near-term risks include renewed commodity volatility, tariff pass-through pressures that challenge the disinflation narrative, and geopolitical surprises that could reprice oil and risk assets. Crypto’s elevated positioning is another source of potential cross-asset volatility if momentum reverses. For now, breadth is improving, and risk assets are absorbing the current rate setting—an encouraging sign heading into the heart of earnings season.
Stocks are broadly higher at midday Thursday, with gains spanning mega-cap tech and economically sensitive small caps. The tone is constructive despite a mixed macro backdrop of still-elevated long-end Treasury yields and softer commodity prices. Sector moves reflect a risk-on bias led by technology and financials, while health care lags on deal headlines and idiosyncratic news flow.
Across the major U.S. equity proxies, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up versus Wednesday’s close, trading at 694.91 against a prior 690.36, a gain of roughly 0.66%. The Nasdaq-100 proxy (QQQ) is stronger, up about 1.04% to 626.02 from 619.55. Blue chips are firmer as well, with the Dow tracker (DIA) up near 0.79% at 495.46 from 491.58. The small-cap Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is outperforming on a percentage basis, higher by about 1.27% to 266.53 from 263.19. The advance suggests investors are leaning into cyclical and growth exposures simultaneously, a mix that often appears when earnings season begins to clarify fundamental trends.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain a central input to risk appetite. The latest readings put the 2-year at roughly 3.53%, the 5-year near 3.75%, the 10-year at about 4.18%, and the 30-year around 4.83%. CNBC noted this morning that yields nudged higher as investors monitored geopolitical headlines, reinforcing that the long end remains the pressure point for duration-sensitive assets. Even so, the equity tape is absorbing that rate setting, likely helped by favorable reads on the labor market and a constructive start to corporate earnings.
On inflation, the most recent CPI print in December shows headline at 326.03 (index level) and core CPI at 331.86. Forward-looking inflation expectations, however, appear anchored: model-based estimates sit around 2.60% for 1-year and near 2.33% and 2.32% for 5- and 10-years, respectively (2.45% at 30-years). That combination—still-firm realized inflation but anchored expectations—helps explain why markets can accommodate elevated nominal yields without derailing risk appetite.
Fresh data points add nuance. Jobless claims slipped below the 200,000 threshold for only the second time in a year, suggesting a tentative improvement in a labor market that had shown signs of cooling. At the same time, the Fed’s Beige Book captured businesses beginning to pass along tariff-related cost increases, with most districts seeing higher input costs outside of two that reported slight price growth. The net effect is an economy that continues to “chug ahead,” as one retail sales recap put it, with the consumer resilient but cost pressures still percolating beneath the surface.
Equities and sectors: tech leadership, banks firm, health care drags
Within sectors, technology is setting the pace. The sector ETF (XLK) trades at 147.00, up about 1.59% from 144.70. Under the hood, the semiconductor complex is digesting a strong TSMC quarter and higher 2026 AI capex guidance. One account characterized TSMC’s fourth quarter as a “thumping” beat with a big revenue milestone and increased AI-related spending plans. That’s broadly supportive for chip supply chains. However, another piece noted Nvidia’s stock has lagged certain chip peers this year following the TSMC print, reflecting a rotation toward memory names and already well-trodden narratives in leading AI beneficiaries. The net take for tech today is constructive breadth with some rotation beneath the surface as investors calibrate where incremental upside may be strongest.
Financials are participating. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is at 54.47, up roughly 0.58% from 54.15. The group is finding support in a mix of earnings and macro. Bank of America edged past expectations and struck a bullish tone on the U.S. economy. Citigroup shares rose despite a profit miss, with management pointing to previously disclosed Russia-related charges as a key driver. Goldman Sachs beat profit estimates but saw revenue fall for the first time in two years, with its Apple Card exposure flagged as a headwind, and Wells Fargo missed on revenue even as it set a new profit target. Despite the idiosyncratic results, the sector is handling long-end yields near 4.8% on the 30-year relatively well—a level that can help net interest margins but still tests credit-sensitive areas. Strategists at one firm also reiterated that banks, which led last year, could remain a favored sector in 2026—a narrative today’s steady tape seems to support.
Health care is lagging. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) is down about 0.72% to 156.73 from 157.86. The sector is digesting a significant deal: Boston Scientific’s plan to acquire Penumbra for $14.5 billion to expand into fast-growing vascular segments. While M&A can be supportive longer term, near-term dispersion between acquirers, targets, and peers often pressures the broader basket, especially when weight-loss drug dynamics and pipeline headlines complicate sentiment.
Energy is higher alongside equities even as oil prices ease. The energy ETF (XLE) trades around 43.68, up about 1.18% from 43.17. Oil proxies are softer following headlines that the U.S. could hold off on attacking Iran, which coincided with a pullback of nearly 2% in crude on Wednesday. Today, the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) is down roughly 1.40% to 71.59 from 72.61. The sector’s resilience despite the commodity move may reflect positioning, dividend support, and incremental news like the resumption of construction on a major New York offshore wind project, which feeds through to energy infrastructure and services demand over time. Elsewhere in energy, BP’s renewables write-off highlights the continuing rationalization of portfolios as majors balance returns, transition targets, and capital discipline.
Small caps and cyclicals: why the bid today?
The Russell 2000’s 1.27% gain points to improving breadth. Falling mortgage rates—reported at the lowest level in more than three years—are reinvigorating housing activity, a tailwind for construction, building products, and local services that populate small-cap indices. Coupled with firm consumer data from the delayed November retail sales report and a sub-200,000 jobless claims print, investors have reason to express a cyclical bias even with long-end yields still elevated.
Bonds: curve dynamics remain pivotal
Bond ETFs reflect a modestly mixed duration trade. The long-duration U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) is up about 0.23% at 88.54 from 88.33, while the 7–10 year proxy (IEF) is slightly lower by roughly 0.08% to 96.42 from 96.50 and the 1–3 year note ETF (SHY) is fractionally lower at 82.83 from 82.87. With the 10-year near 4.18% and the 30-year around 4.83%, the long end remains the swing factor for equity valuations, financials’ net interest margins, and housing affordability. The anchored medium- to long-term inflation expectations help limit fears of a renewed inflation breakout, but the Beige Book’s tariff pass-through highlights a sticky floor under certain price categories.
Commodities: precious metals cool, oil slips, nat gas firms
Precious metals are modestly softer. The gold ETF (GLD) is down about 0.35% to 424.45 from 425.94. Silver (SLV) is lower by roughly 0.68% to 83.98 from 84.56. This pullback follows a strong run, with silver having recently cleared a psychological $90 milestone and miners rallying alongside, according to recent coverage. Strategists at Goldman have also cautioned that gold’s popularity as a diversifier may be misplaced in certain portfolio contexts, a view that resonates with today’s mild giveback. Industrial metals, including aluminum and copper, have also stabilized after a bull run into 2026, and the broad commodity basket (DBC) is down about 0.38% to 23.30 from 23.39, consistent with the softer oil tape and a brief pause in base metals momentum.
Energy commodities are mixed. USO’s decline lines up with geopolitical de-escalation headlines, while natural gas (UNG) is up about 1.07% to 10.35 from 10.24, a reminder that winter demand variability and storage dynamics can diverge from crude-specific drivers.
FX and crypto: dollar firms modestly as crypto holds gains
In currencies, the euro is modestly softer against the dollar midday, with EURUSD near 1.1610 after opening around 1.1633. The intraday range spans roughly 1.1597 to 1.1639. A marginally firmer dollar is directionally consistent with the U.S. long end holding near cycle-high levels and with near-term growth data surprising positively.
Crypto is steady after a sharp squeeze earlier in the week. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is near 96,138, within a 24-hour range of about 95,366 to 97,225, and little changed from an open near 96,308. Bloomberg reported that the recent rally wiped out roughly $600 million of bearish bets, underscoring still-elevated positioning and liquidity dynamics. Ether (ETHUSD) is trading around 3,300 within a 3,283 to 3,386 band. For equities, crypto stability tends to support risk sentiment at the margin, particularly for high-beta tech.
Notable corporate and policy developments
Semiconductors remain in focus after TSMC delivered a blowout quarter, raised revenue guidance, and boosted AI capex plans for 2026—constructive for supply chains and AI infrastructure beneficiaries. However, leadership within chips is rotating; commentary highlighted that Nvidia has lagged memory peers this year, reflecting a reassessment of where incremental growth and valuation support reside following last year’s outperformance.
Financial sector headlines continue to shape flows. BlackRock’s assets under management reached a record $14 trillion as it leans further into private markets, providing a supportive backdrop for asset managers and the broader financial complex. Bank of America’s beat and bullish economic outlook contrasted with Goldman’s revenue dip linked to Apple Card exposure and Wells Fargo’s revenue miss, while Citigroup’s stock reaction improved despite a profit miss tied to Russia-related charges—a reminder that narrative and guidance often matter as much as reported figures.
In health care, Boston Scientific’s agreement to acquire Penumbra for $14.5 billion expands its vascular footprint, consistent with a strategy of targeting fast-growing niches. The sector ETF is down today, but deal flow and pipeline progress remain the primary drivers of medium-term performance.
Policy and geopolitics remain active. Businesses across most Fed districts now report passing tariff costs to customers, complicating the inflation picture even as expectations remain anchored. In geopolitics, oil eased after signals that the U.S. may not escalate militarily with Iran in the near term, lowering an immediate risk premium in crude. Separately, China’s reported ban on certain foreign cybersecurity software pressured the group, highlighting ongoing U.S.-China tech frictions. And in the energy transition, a New York offshore wind project is set to resume construction after a judicial ruling, supporting medium-term infrastructure activity.
Outlook
With long-end yields elevated, equity leadership is likely to remain sensitive to rate moves and earnings guidance. The tech tape appears supported by AI infrastructure demand, but rotations within semis and software are likely as investors reprice relative winners and laggards. Financials should continue to take their cue from net interest margin signals and credit quality commentary, while health care digests deal flow and weight-loss drug adoption dynamics. On the macro side, watch for confirmation that jobless claims’ dip below 200,000 reflects genuine labor-market stabilization and whether mortgage rate declines sustain the budding housing rebound.
Key near-term risks include renewed commodity volatility, tariff pass-through pressures that challenge the disinflation narrative, and geopolitical surprises that could reprice oil and risk assets. Crypto’s elevated positioning is another source of potential cross-asset volatility if momentum reverses. For now, breadth is improving, and risk assets are absorbing the current rate setting—an encouraging sign heading into the heart of earnings season.