State of Market: Midday 12/30/25
Midday Market: Equities mixed into year-end as precious metals surge, curve stays steep, AI headlines dominate
S&P 500 and Dow edge lower, Nasdaq flat; gold and silver rebound sharply; long-duration Treasurys softer as 10-year holds near 4.14%; AI deal flow and 2026 positioning drive sector narratives
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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U.S. markets are moving deliberately at midday on Tuesday, with major equity benchmarks mixed into the final stretch of 2025. The tone is constructive but selective: growth leadership is holding up while cyclicals and small caps lag, and precious metals are staging an outsized rebound. The macro backdrop remains one of a steep yield curve, anchored medium-term inflation expectations, and an AI-centric corporate tape that continues to shape sector leadership heading into 2026.
Equities at a glance
- SPY is essentially flat to slightly lower at 687.77, a touch below its prior close of 687.85.
- QQQ is fractionally higher at 620.88 versus a prior close of 620.87, holding the line for large-cap growth.
- DIA trades at 484.00, just below yesterday’s 484.59, while IWM at 249.07 is tracking below its prior close of 249.88, reflecting small-cap underperformance.
The picture is consistent with a year-end consolidation: the Nasdaq-heavy complex is steady while broader and more cyclically sensitive cohorts drift modestly lower.
Macro: yields, inflation, and expectations
The Treasury curve remains notably steep from the front end through the long end, a configuration that supports financials’ net interest margins while keeping duration-sensitive assets on a short leash.
- 2-year yield: 3.46%
- 5-year yield: 3.68%
- 10-year yield: 4.14%
- 30-year yield: 4.81%
The incremental slope from 2s to 10s and out to 30s underscores a market that is pricing contained front-end policy risk with higher long-run nominal growth or term premium. That setup aligns with analyst commentary that a steepening curve could be a constructive tailwind for regional banks in 2026.
Inflation remains contained in expectations terms. The November CPI index level stands at 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068 (index levels; rate-of-change not provided). Market-implied or model-based inflation expectations sit at 3.20% over one year and converge toward the low-2s longer term (5-year at 2.42%, 10-year at 2.34%, 30-year at 2.44%). This “well-anchored beyond one year” profile gives equities room to focus on earnings and thematic growth, while giving the Fed some latitude. Articles suggest the Fed is in “hibernation,” and political headlines around the central bank persist, but the curve and expectations combination today points to policy stability rather than imminent shock.
Sectors: AI narratives endure; defensives mixed
Sector dispersion is modest but informative around midday:
- Financials (XLF) at 55.21 are a touch below the prior close of 55.32, broadly mirroring the slight downtick in the broader tape. The steep curve remains a supportive medium-term theme for 2026, consistent with analysis flagging potential regional-bank tailwinds from curve shape, regulation, and M&A.
- Technology (XLK) at 145.85 is essentially unchanged to slightly lower versus 145.87, a pause amid a heavy late-December AI news flow. Headlines highlight continued megacap dealmaking to position for AI, renewed bullish lists of AI leaders for 2026, and competitive jockeying in accelerators and software stacks.
- Health Care (XLV) at 155.65 is modestly below 155.81, reflecting a defensive sector that’s tracking the broader market. Biotech-specific setbacks in select names (noted below) emphasize idiosyncratic trial risk into year-end.
- Energy proxy as provided in the payload shows a small gain versus its prior close. While the sector handle in the feed presents a symbol inconsistency, the entry indicates a slight uptick intraday. Commodities (crude, natural gas, broad baskets) are also firm, which supports the move.
Overall, the sector tape is consistent with a quiet year-end rotation: growth leaders steady, cyclicals and defensives mixed-to-softer, and commodity-linked groups buoyed by rising underlying prices.
Bonds: duration softens
Treasury ETFs reflect a mild preference for shorter duration today:
- TLT at 87.97 is slightly below its prior close of 88.07, consistent with a marginal rise in long-end rates or a bit of term-premium pressure.
- IEF at 96.55 is a shade below 96.58.
- SHY at 82.86 sits slightly above 82.83, signaling stability to modest strength at the short end.
With the 10-year anchored around 4.14% (as of the last available level) and the long bond above 4.8%, the small downtick in long-duration ETFs is coherent with the curve steepness and investors’ preference to keep duration risk moderate into year-end.
Commodities: precious metals rebound, energy firm
The standout move at midday is in precious metals:
- GLD at 401.67 is trading above its prior close of 398.60.
- SLV at 70.53 has surged from 66.01, underscoring continued volatility in silver after Monday’s selloff. Several pieces flag the unusual magnitude of silver’s outperformance relative to oil and debate whether the move is bubble-like or grounded in structural tightness. Commentary also points to potential policy shifts and export dynamics as additional catalysts or risks.
Broader commodity proxies are also bid:
- USO at 69.82 is above 69.61, while UNG at 13.27 is above 13.05. DBC, a diversified commodities basket, at 22.70 is up from 22.49, reflecting a generally firmer complex.
With precious metals rebounding and energy drifting higher, the commodities complex is acting as a hedge against macro uncertainty and a play on potential supply dynamics. Note that year-end tax considerations can introduce short-term flows in metals and index levels; one analysis highlights that the New Year’s tax deadline can pose event risk for gold, silver, and the Dow in thin holiday trading.
FX and crypto: dollar mix, crypto firmer versus opens
The euro is quoted around 1.1756 against the dollar in the payload. Directional deltas are not provided, but the level suggests a stable foreign-exchange backdrop for U.S. multinationals and commodities priced in USD.
Crypto is firmer versus the session open:
- BTCUSD marks near 88,332 with an intraday high around 89,365 and a low near 87,035; the mark is above the provided open of 87,196.
- ETHUSD marks near 2,974 with an intraday high near 3,008 and a low around 2,933; the mark is above the provided open of 2,943.
While crypto is up on the day relative to the indicated opens, a separate corporate headline underscores the risk of equity proxies tied to bitcoin using dilutive share sales. The divergence reminds investors that token prices and equity strategies linked to tokens can behave differently, especially around capital-raising events.
AI and megacap tech: deal flow and 2026 positioning
AI remains the central equity narrative into 2026. Articles point to:
- Ongoing consolidation and capability-building, including a new acquisition by a major social platform to close the year and a licensing move pulling executives from a specialized AI chip startup into a leading GPU incumbent.
- A top sell-side strategist’s 2026 AI list that notably excludes the leading accelerator name, suggesting a broadening of perceived opportunities across software, systems, and other Magnificent Seven components.
- Specific 2026 watch items for AMD as it rolls out accelerators and rack-scale offerings, alongside reflections on what it will take for Microsoft and Alphabet to maintain leadership, what could reinvigorate Amazon’s shares via cloud, ads, and retail, and a watchpoint for Apple around memory cost dynamics.
Taken together, the AI stack remains a multi-layer opportunity, but 2026 may demand more rigorous differentiation and execution, especially in power-intensive verticals where investors will want to see who is monetizing AI infrastructure versus simply building it.
Autos and discretionary: divergent narratives
Tesla headlines are mixed into year-end. One piece points to a pessimistic fourth-quarter sales outlook and lower expected 2025 volumes versus prior years, while another outlines ambitions in AI and robotaxi. Without price data in this feed, the takeaway is a barbell of cautious near-term delivery outlooks against higher-beta optionality in autonomy—an equation investors will re-price as 2026 guideposts emerge.
General Motors is highlighted for a standout 2025 share performance versus peers, illustrating that legacy automakers executing on capital allocation and product cadence can still rerate. In discretionary retail, Target reportedly drew interest from an investment firm—an example of valuation-driven capital finding opportunities in lagging consumer names amid an affordability backdrop.
Health care and biotech: execution risk in focus
While the headline sector ETF is only modestly lower, individual biotech headlines show sizable negative reactions to trial outcomes for specific companies working on brittle-bone treatments. The lesson for 2026 is familiar: in early-stage and mid-stage biotech, single-trial events can dominate returns, reinforcing the case for either broad diversification or a barbell between profitable large-cap pharma and selectively underwritten clinical catalysts.
Banks and the curve: setup into 2026
KBW commentary suggests 2026 could be a banner year for regional banks, citing a steepening curve, potential regulatory relief, and M&A normalization. Today’s curve levels (2s at 3.46% rising to 10s at 4.14% and 30s at 4.81%) provide a sound macro template for that thesis, even as XLF is marginally lower midday. As always, funding costs, credit quality, and capital rules will be the differentiators.
Seasonality and flows: Santa Claus and tax considerations
Year-end seasonality remains a talking point, with a Santa Claus rally framework running through the first two trading days of the new year. Futures were recently steady as investors looked to end the year on firm footing, and the present midday tape aligns with that: calm breadth, selective strength, and limited volatility. That said, tax-driven flows around the New Year can impact metals and index proxies in thin liquidity—an additional reason to avoid over-interpreting one or two holiday sessions.
Bottom line
Midway through Tuesday’s session, the market is consolidating record-level gains with a slight defensive tilt in cyclicals and small caps, steady leadership in growth/AI exposures, and a conspicuous bid in precious metals. The curve remains steep, inflation expectations are anchored beyond one year, and the AI investment cycle continues to drive corporate actions and 2026 narratives. Risk remains two-sided around policy signaling, tax-driven flows, and pockets of valuation exuberance—especially in metals and AI-adjacent assets—but the core setup remains intact heading into the final trading day of the year.
What to watch next
- Treasury market tone into the close for clues on duration appetite and any year-end rebalancing.
- Follow-through in GLD and SLV after today’s rebound, with an eye on liquidity and any policy headlines tied to metals trade.
- AI deal activity and product updates as 2026 positioning accelerates, especially around accelerators and power infrastructure.
- Sector breadth: whether small caps (IWM) stabilize and whether financials (XLF) catch a late-day bid in line with the curve.
- Any Fed-related commentary or calendar cues after the “hibernation” framing, especially as markets parse 2026 policy trajectories.
U.S. markets are moving deliberately at midday on Tuesday, with major equity benchmarks mixed into the final stretch of 2025. The tone is constructive but selective: growth leadership is holding up while cyclicals and small caps lag, and precious metals are staging an outsized rebound. The macro backdrop remains one of a steep yield curve, anchored medium-term inflation expectations, and an AI-centric corporate tape that continues to shape sector leadership heading into 2026.
Equities at a glance
- SPY is essentially flat to slightly lower at 687.77, a touch below its prior close of 687.85.
- QQQ is fractionally higher at 620.88 versus a prior close of 620.87, holding the line for large-cap growth.
- DIA trades at 484.00, just below yesterday’s 484.59, while IWM at 249.07 is tracking below its prior close of 249.88, reflecting small-cap underperformance.
The picture is consistent with a year-end consolidation: the Nasdaq-heavy complex is steady while broader and more cyclically sensitive cohorts drift modestly lower.
Macro: yields, inflation, and expectations
The Treasury curve remains notably steep from the front end through the long end, a configuration that supports financials’ net interest margins while keeping duration-sensitive assets on a short leash.
- 2-year yield: 3.46%
- 5-year yield: 3.68%
- 10-year yield: 4.14%
- 30-year yield: 4.81%
The incremental slope from 2s to 10s and out to 30s underscores a market that is pricing contained front-end policy risk with higher long-run nominal growth or term premium. That setup aligns with analyst commentary that a steepening curve could be a constructive tailwind for regional banks in 2026.
Inflation remains contained in expectations terms. The November CPI index level stands at 325.031 with core CPI at 331.068 (index levels; rate-of-change not provided). Market-implied or model-based inflation expectations sit at 3.20% over one year and converge toward the low-2s longer term (5-year at 2.42%, 10-year at 2.34%, 30-year at 2.44%). This “well-anchored beyond one year” profile gives equities room to focus on earnings and thematic growth, while giving the Fed some latitude. Articles suggest the Fed is in “hibernation,” and political headlines around the central bank persist, but the curve and expectations combination today points to policy stability rather than imminent shock.
Sectors: AI narratives endure; defensives mixed
Sector dispersion is modest but informative around midday:
- Financials (XLF) at 55.21 are a touch below the prior close of 55.32, broadly mirroring the slight downtick in the broader tape. The steep curve remains a supportive medium-term theme for 2026, consistent with analysis flagging potential regional-bank tailwinds from curve shape, regulation, and M&A.
- Technology (XLK) at 145.85 is essentially unchanged to slightly lower versus 145.87, a pause amid a heavy late-December AI news flow. Headlines highlight continued megacap dealmaking to position for AI, renewed bullish lists of AI leaders for 2026, and competitive jockeying in accelerators and software stacks.
- Health Care (XLV) at 155.65 is modestly below 155.81, reflecting a defensive sector that’s tracking the broader market. Biotech-specific setbacks in select names (noted below) emphasize idiosyncratic trial risk into year-end.
- Energy proxy as provided in the payload shows a small gain versus its prior close. While the sector handle in the feed presents a symbol inconsistency, the entry indicates a slight uptick intraday. Commodities (crude, natural gas, broad baskets) are also firm, which supports the move.
Overall, the sector tape is consistent with a quiet year-end rotation: growth leaders steady, cyclicals and defensives mixed-to-softer, and commodity-linked groups buoyed by rising underlying prices.
Bonds: duration softens
Treasury ETFs reflect a mild preference for shorter duration today:
- TLT at 87.97 is slightly below its prior close of 88.07, consistent with a marginal rise in long-end rates or a bit of term-premium pressure.
- IEF at 96.55 is a shade below 96.58.
- SHY at 82.86 sits slightly above 82.83, signaling stability to modest strength at the short end.
With the 10-year anchored around 4.14% (as of the last available level) and the long bond above 4.8%, the small downtick in long-duration ETFs is coherent with the curve steepness and investors’ preference to keep duration risk moderate into year-end.
Commodities: precious metals rebound, energy firm
The standout move at midday is in precious metals:
- GLD at 401.67 is trading above its prior close of 398.60.
- SLV at 70.53 has surged from 66.01, underscoring continued volatility in silver after Monday’s selloff. Several pieces flag the unusual magnitude of silver’s outperformance relative to oil and debate whether the move is bubble-like or grounded in structural tightness. Commentary also points to potential policy shifts and export dynamics as additional catalysts or risks.
Broader commodity proxies are also bid:
- USO at 69.82 is above 69.61, while UNG at 13.27 is above 13.05. DBC, a diversified commodities basket, at 22.70 is up from 22.49, reflecting a generally firmer complex.
With precious metals rebounding and energy drifting higher, the commodities complex is acting as a hedge against macro uncertainty and a play on potential supply dynamics. Note that year-end tax considerations can introduce short-term flows in metals and index levels; one analysis highlights that the New Year’s tax deadline can pose event risk for gold, silver, and the Dow in thin holiday trading.
FX and crypto: dollar mix, crypto firmer versus opens
The euro is quoted around 1.1756 against the dollar in the payload. Directional deltas are not provided, but the level suggests a stable foreign-exchange backdrop for U.S. multinationals and commodities priced in USD.
Crypto is firmer versus the session open:
- BTCUSD marks near 88,332 with an intraday high around 89,365 and a low near 87,035; the mark is above the provided open of 87,196.
- ETHUSD marks near 2,974 with an intraday high near 3,008 and a low around 2,933; the mark is above the provided open of 2,943.
While crypto is up on the day relative to the indicated opens, a separate corporate headline underscores the risk of equity proxies tied to bitcoin using dilutive share sales. The divergence reminds investors that token prices and equity strategies linked to tokens can behave differently, especially around capital-raising events.
AI and megacap tech: deal flow and 2026 positioning
AI remains the central equity narrative into 2026. Articles point to:
- Ongoing consolidation and capability-building, including a new acquisition by a major social platform to close the year and a licensing move pulling executives from a specialized AI chip startup into a leading GPU incumbent.
- A top sell-side strategist’s 2026 AI list that notably excludes the leading accelerator name, suggesting a broadening of perceived opportunities across software, systems, and other Magnificent Seven components.
- Specific 2026 watch items for AMD as it rolls out accelerators and rack-scale offerings, alongside reflections on what it will take for Microsoft and Alphabet to maintain leadership, what could reinvigorate Amazon’s shares via cloud, ads, and retail, and a watchpoint for Apple around memory cost dynamics.
Taken together, the AI stack remains a multi-layer opportunity, but 2026 may demand more rigorous differentiation and execution, especially in power-intensive verticals where investors will want to see who is monetizing AI infrastructure versus simply building it.
Autos and discretionary: divergent narratives
Tesla headlines are mixed into year-end. One piece points to a pessimistic fourth-quarter sales outlook and lower expected 2025 volumes versus prior years, while another outlines ambitions in AI and robotaxi. Without price data in this feed, the takeaway is a barbell of cautious near-term delivery outlooks against higher-beta optionality in autonomy—an equation investors will re-price as 2026 guideposts emerge.
General Motors is highlighted for a standout 2025 share performance versus peers, illustrating that legacy automakers executing on capital allocation and product cadence can still rerate. In discretionary retail, Target reportedly drew interest from an investment firm—an example of valuation-driven capital finding opportunities in lagging consumer names amid an affordability backdrop.
Health care and biotech: execution risk in focus
While the headline sector ETF is only modestly lower, individual biotech headlines show sizable negative reactions to trial outcomes for specific companies working on brittle-bone treatments. The lesson for 2026 is familiar: in early-stage and mid-stage biotech, single-trial events can dominate returns, reinforcing the case for either broad diversification or a barbell between profitable large-cap pharma and selectively underwritten clinical catalysts.
Banks and the curve: setup into 2026
KBW commentary suggests 2026 could be a banner year for regional banks, citing a steepening curve, potential regulatory relief, and M&A normalization. Today’s curve levels (2s at 3.46% rising to 10s at 4.14% and 30s at 4.81%) provide a sound macro template for that thesis, even as XLF is marginally lower midday. As always, funding costs, credit quality, and capital rules will be the differentiators.
Seasonality and flows: Santa Claus and tax considerations
Year-end seasonality remains a talking point, with a Santa Claus rally framework running through the first two trading days of the new year. Futures were recently steady as investors looked to end the year on firm footing, and the present midday tape aligns with that: calm breadth, selective strength, and limited volatility. That said, tax-driven flows around the New Year can impact metals and index proxies in thin liquidity—an additional reason to avoid over-interpreting one or two holiday sessions.
Bottom line
Midway through Tuesday’s session, the market is consolidating record-level gains with a slight defensive tilt in cyclicals and small caps, steady leadership in growth/AI exposures, and a conspicuous bid in precious metals. The curve remains steep, inflation expectations are anchored beyond one year, and the AI investment cycle continues to drive corporate actions and 2026 narratives. Risk remains two-sided around policy signaling, tax-driven flows, and pockets of valuation exuberance—especially in metals and AI-adjacent assets—but the core setup remains intact heading into the final trading day of the year.
What to watch next
- Treasury market tone into the close for clues on duration appetite and any year-end rebalancing.
- Follow-through in GLD and SLV after today’s rebound, with an eye on liquidity and any policy headlines tied to metals trade.
- AI deal activity and product updates as 2026 positioning accelerates, especially around accelerators and power infrastructure.
- Sector breadth: whether small caps (IWM) stabilize and whether financials (XLF) catch a late-day bid in line with the curve.
- Any Fed-related commentary or calendar cues after the “hibernation” framing, especially as markets parse 2026 policy trajectories.