State of Market: Midday 12/25/25
Midday Market: Equities lean higher into year-end as yields steady; precious metals cool at the margin while crypto and FX tread water
Seasonal tailwinds and resilient macro data support risk appetite, but low volatility and crowded trades elevate the need for risk discipline
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Overview
At midday on this Christmas Day session checkpoint, the dominant narrative remains continuity rather than change: risk assets are holding onto recent gains as investors look to carry the year’s late-December momentum into the final trading stretch and early January. The latest available tape shows broad U.S. equity ETFs finishing Christmas Eve modestly higher, with large caps edging out small caps and growth still in command. Under the surface, Technology leadership persists, Health Care is firming on drug and innovation headlines, and Financials continue to benefit from a stable-to-easing rate backdrop. In commodities, the multi-week surge in precious metals paused slightly, with gold off marginally and silver still bid, while energy benchmarks were mixed. Crypto prices are range-bound today, and the dollar shows little movement on limited holiday liquidity.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields, based on the latest available readings (December 22), remain anchored within recently established ranges. The 2-year sits at 3.44%, the 5-year at 3.71%, the 10-year at 4.17%, and the 30-year at 4.84%. The curve continues to display a positive slope from 2s to 30s, with the 10-year below the long bond, suggesting the market is balancing a disinflation trend with still-solid growth prospects and longer-term term premia. Importantly for equities, benchmark duration (10-year) holding near 4.17% is consistent with valuations that have already re-rated this year, provided earnings delivery continues.
Inflation data through November show headline CPI at 325.031 and core CPI at 331.068 (index levels), reflecting progress from midyear but still above the Fed’s long-run comfort if viewed through annualized lenses. Inflation expectations remain well-behaved across tenors in December: 1-year at 3.20%, 5-year at 2.42%, 10-year at 2.34%, and 30-year at 2.44%. The decline in forward measures versus 1-year expectations implies markets anticipate continued disinflation into 2026, a supportive input for duration-sensitive equities and for sectors levered to real discount rates like Technology and long-duration Growth.
Macro narrative alignment with recent newsflow supports this positioning. Jobless claims “fall again — and they’re even lower than last year,” indicating layoffs remain scarce even after leadership changes in Washington and a turbulent 2025 (MarketWatch). Growth resilience is corroborated by the delayed Q3 GDP print of 4.3%, described as the largest gain in two years, boosted by consumer spending (CNBC; MarketWatch). Meanwhile, several pieces highlight the market’s calm: both a low VIX into year-end and a “closely watched gauge of bond-market volatility” signaling an all-clear for stocks (MarketWatch). Together, stable yields, still-elevated but moderating inflation, anchored longer-run expectations, and subdued cross-asset volatility create a benign backdrop for risk-taking — with the caveat that complacency risk rises when volatility compresses.
Equities and sectors
Major index proxies finished Christmas Eve higher, extending the so-called “Santa Claus rally” that historically spans the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next (MarketWatch). SPY last traded at 690.28 versus a previous close of 687.96, QQQ at 623.94 versus 622.11, DIA at 486.97 versus 484.23, and IWM at 252.70 versus 252.08. While intraday ranges and volumes are not provided for this checkpoint, the price levels reflect modest gains across large-cap, mega-cap tech, industrial blue chips, and small caps. The S&P 500 also set a record on Christmas Eve, a first in more than a decade (MarketWatch), underscoring the breadth of the late-year advance.
Sector performance was constructive into the holiday. Technology (XLK 146.31 vs. 145.95) led on the heels of ongoing AI infrastructure and software catalysts. Notable headlines included Nvidia entering a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chipmaker Groq and absorbing part of the startup’s executive team (MarketWatch), as well as forward-looking commentary on what Nvidia investors may expect in 2026, including the impact of OpenAI’s next GPT model and data center buildouts (MarketWatch). On the software side, ServiceNow’s $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis (MarketWatch) expands its reach into cybersecurity as the company positions itself as an “AI control tower,” bolstering the theme of AI-driven operational platforms.
Health Care (XLV 155.76 vs. 154.99) was also firmer. News that Novo Nordisk was first out of the gate with an oral weight-loss drug (MarketWatch) and reports elsewhere of its obesity pill approval supporting shares (CNBC summary) point to sustained investor interest in obesity and metabolic franchises — a key narrative underpinning the sector’s relative strength. More broadly, the sector benefits from defensiveness and idiosyncratic innovation at a time when growth remains an investor preference but macro uncertainty persists.
Financials (XLF 55.71 vs. 55.43) continue to benefit from a stable yield curve and an outlook of contained inflation expectations, which can support net interest margins while limiting credit stress concerns. Meanwhile, Energy’s sector entry in our feed shows a last trade of 42.82 versus 42.62 (note: the entry is labeled XLE in the sector list though the symbol field reads XLU). Regardless of the labeling anomaly, energy benchmarks were mixed at the commodity level (see below), and the modest ETF uptick suggests underlying producer equities are holding steady.
Individual corporate headlines add nuance across Industrials and TMT. Honeywell disclosed a $470 million Flexjet-related charge and lowered its profit outlook (MarketWatch), a reminder that idiosyncratic legal and contractual exposures can offset macro tailwinds within Industrials. Conversely, Huntington Ingalls surged earlier this week on winning the U.S. Navy’s next-generation frigate contract (MarketWatch), highlighting defense as a pocket of strength tied to multi-year procurement cycles. In Media and Telecom, Paramount cited a personal $40 billion financing guarantee by Larry Ellison tied to its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (MarketWatch), while AST SpaceMobile’s rally and ongoing satellite deployments reflect investor enthusiasm in space communications (MarketWatch). Alphabet’s purchase of data-center partner Intersect (MarketWatch) underscores escalating competition for power and infrastructure to feed AI compute demand, a secular driver that continues to anchor Technology’s leadership case.
Bonds
Treasury ETF proxies advanced into Christmas Eve. TLT (88.02 vs. 87.50), IEF (96.34 vs. 96.10), and SHY (82.735 vs. 82.68) all posted small gains. The incremental bid in duration is consistent with 10-year yields holding near 4.17% and with market-based inflation expectations that fade toward 2.3%–2.4% over 5–30 years. A calmer rate backdrop aligns with the report of diminished bond-market volatility (MarketWatch), which, in turn, has historically been supportive of equity multiples so long as growth data remain constructive.
Commodities
Precious metals have been on a strong pre-holiday run, to the point where one strategist called the move “unhinged” (MarketWatch). Our latest prints show a modest pause: GLD last traded at 411.93, just below its prior close of 413.64, while SLV edged higher to 65.23 from 64.84. The split move is consistent with broad enthusiasm for hard assets (CNBC also highlighted fresh highs earlier this week) tempered by holiday liquidity and a slightly firmer dollar technical backdrop discussed in FX coverage. The persistence of long-term inflation expectations near 2.4% and the decline in realized inflation from peaks suggest the medium-term case for gold rests more on financial-stability hedging, geopolitical risk, and real-rate trajectories than on near-term CPI re-acceleration.
Energy proxies were mixed. USO printed 70.19 versus a 70.30 prior close, while DBC was essentially flat at 22.635 versus 22.640. Natural gas (UNG) slipped to 12.395 from 12.90, continuing a weak stretch. Among industry headlines, sanctions-afflicted refinery operations in India (Bloomberg) introduce potential supply-side noise for refined products in 2026, but we do not have direct price effects in today’s data. Overall, the lack of a decisive move in diversified commodities (DBC) fits the macro narrative of steady growth without an inflation shock.
FX and crypto
FX liquidity is thin around the holiday, and our feed shows EURUSD marked at 1.1780 with limited published range data, implying a broadly steady dollar against the euro for this checkpoint. A recent note flagged the dollar closing the year with a technical “golden cross,” suggesting potential near-term support into early 2026 (MarketWatch). A steadier dollar typically leans against upside momentum in dollar-denominated commodities and can align with the slight pullback we saw in GLD today.
Crypto remains in a holding pattern intraday. Bitcoin shows a mark near 88,188 with a published session range between roughly 87,199 and 88,575, and Ethereum sits near 2,952 within a 2,910–2,971 band. A separate article observes that despite milestone wins in 2025, digital asset prices struggled and investors may look to policy support in 2026 (MarketWatch). For today, the tape suggests consolidation amid broader risk-on sentiment in equities.
Seasonality, sentiment, and positioning context
Multiple pieces revisit seasonal patterns and sentiment. The “Santa Claus rally” is historically concentrated around the final trading days of the year and the first two sessions of the new one (MarketWatch), and an additional article notes December 26 has been the most reliably positive single day for the S&P 500 (MarketWatch). That seasonal backdrop, combined with the S&P 500’s Christmas Eve record and a VIX near cycle lows (MarketWatch), captures today’s setup: supportive, but increasingly dependent on earnings follow-through and on the durability of the AI-investment cycle that has powered leadership. One strategist highlights Nvidia’s renewed strength as a bellwether for both Tech and the broader S&P 500 (MarketWatch), reinforcing the notion that a handful of mega-cap platforms still exert outsized influence on indices.
Notable single-name developments
- Nvidia and Groq: A non-exclusive licensing deal and executive hires (MarketWatch) reinforce Nvidia’s strategy to keep optionality in the AI accelerator stack while absorbing talent. This dovetails with the “what to expect in 2026” theme around model upgrades and data center expansion (MarketWatch).
- ServiceNow/Armis: A $7.75 billion acquisition expands cybersecurity capabilities aimed at creating an “AI control tower” (MarketWatch), signaling enterprise spend alignment with AI governance and security.
- Tesla: Fresh regulatory scrutiny of Model 3 doors (MarketWatch), alongside continued investor focus on robotaxis despite weaker EV sales (MarketWatch), illustrates the push-pull of headline risk versus long-duration optionality priced into the shares.
- Honeywell: A $470 million settlement tied to Flexjet and a lowered profit outlook (MarketWatch) are a reminder that litigation and program risk can intrude on otherwise constructive industrial backdrops.
- Health care innovation: Novo Nordisk’s progress with an oral weight-loss pill (MarketWatch; CNBC summary) underpins obesity/diabetes as multi-year growth themes, helping XLV’s resilience.
- Defense and space: Huntington Ingalls’ Navy frigate contract win (MarketWatch) and continued enthusiasm for space communications (AST SpaceMobile; MarketWatch) highlight pockets of secular growth decoupled from the broader cycle.
Outlook
Into the final sessions of the year and the first week of January, the market’s near-term path is likely to be set by three forces: 1) seasonal flows and positioning, 2) the trajectory of rates and inflation expectations, and 3) the cadence of AI- and health care–related catalysts. Stable 10-year yields around 4.17% with forward inflation anchored near 2.3%–2.4% are consistent with further equity resilience, but with low volatility and narrow leadership, the risk/reward is sensitive to earnings guidance and macro surprises.
What to watch next
- Rates: Any material shift in the 10-year from ~4.17% or a move in 2s toward 3.5% that challenges the current curve shape.
- Inflation signals: Early January price data and corporate pricing commentary for signs of stickiness or renewed disinflation.
- AI investment cadence: Follow-through from big-cap platforms (hardware, software, and power procurement), including integration moves like Alphabet’s Intersect acquisition and enterprise platforms expanding into cybersecurity (ServiceNow/Armis).
- Health care catalysts: Regulatory and clinical updates around obesity and cardio-metabolic drugs that could influence XLV leadership.
- Commodity volatility: Whether gold resumes breakout behavior or consolidates; watch the dollar’s technical posture for cross-asset implications.
- Crypto policy and flows: After a difficult 2025 for prices (per reporting), whether early-2026 policy cues alter sentiment.
Risks
- Policy and regulatory: Renewed scrutiny on high-profile tech and auto names; project-specific pauses (e.g., offshore wind) that can ripple through supply chains (MarketWatch).
- Macro downside: A surprise inflation flare or growth air-pocket that re-prices rates and compresses equity multiples.
- Market structure: Low-volatility complacency and crowded positioning leading to outsized reactions to negative surprises.
- Geopolitics and energy: Refining and supply disruptions (Bloomberg) and broader geopolitical shocks feeding commodity and rate volatility.
Bottom line
The market enters the final stretch of the year with equities trending higher, yields steady, and volatility subdued. Technology leadership, health care innovation, and selective industrial/defense strength remain in focus, while precious metals’ momentum is pausing at the margin. With seasonality at its back and macro data still cooperative, the path of least resistance remains sideways-to-up — but with valuations elevated and volatility compressed, disciplined risk management and close attention to rates, earnings guidance, and policy signals are warranted.
Overview
At midday on this Christmas Day session checkpoint, the dominant narrative remains continuity rather than change: risk assets are holding onto recent gains as investors look to carry the year’s late-December momentum into the final trading stretch and early January. The latest available tape shows broad U.S. equity ETFs finishing Christmas Eve modestly higher, with large caps edging out small caps and growth still in command. Under the surface, Technology leadership persists, Health Care is firming on drug and innovation headlines, and Financials continue to benefit from a stable-to-easing rate backdrop. In commodities, the multi-week surge in precious metals paused slightly, with gold off marginally and silver still bid, while energy benchmarks were mixed. Crypto prices are range-bound today, and the dollar shows little movement on limited holiday liquidity.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields, based on the latest available readings (December 22), remain anchored within recently established ranges. The 2-year sits at 3.44%, the 5-year at 3.71%, the 10-year at 4.17%, and the 30-year at 4.84%. The curve continues to display a positive slope from 2s to 30s, with the 10-year below the long bond, suggesting the market is balancing a disinflation trend with still-solid growth prospects and longer-term term premia. Importantly for equities, benchmark duration (10-year) holding near 4.17% is consistent with valuations that have already re-rated this year, provided earnings delivery continues.
Inflation data through November show headline CPI at 325.031 and core CPI at 331.068 (index levels), reflecting progress from midyear but still above the Fed’s long-run comfort if viewed through annualized lenses. Inflation expectations remain well-behaved across tenors in December: 1-year at 3.20%, 5-year at 2.42%, 10-year at 2.34%, and 30-year at 2.44%. The decline in forward measures versus 1-year expectations implies markets anticipate continued disinflation into 2026, a supportive input for duration-sensitive equities and for sectors levered to real discount rates like Technology and long-duration Growth.
Macro narrative alignment with recent newsflow supports this positioning. Jobless claims “fall again — and they’re even lower than last year,” indicating layoffs remain scarce even after leadership changes in Washington and a turbulent 2025 (MarketWatch). Growth resilience is corroborated by the delayed Q3 GDP print of 4.3%, described as the largest gain in two years, boosted by consumer spending (CNBC; MarketWatch). Meanwhile, several pieces highlight the market’s calm: both a low VIX into year-end and a “closely watched gauge of bond-market volatility” signaling an all-clear for stocks (MarketWatch). Together, stable yields, still-elevated but moderating inflation, anchored longer-run expectations, and subdued cross-asset volatility create a benign backdrop for risk-taking — with the caveat that complacency risk rises when volatility compresses.
Equities and sectors
Major index proxies finished Christmas Eve higher, extending the so-called “Santa Claus rally” that historically spans the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the next (MarketWatch). SPY last traded at 690.28 versus a previous close of 687.96, QQQ at 623.94 versus 622.11, DIA at 486.97 versus 484.23, and IWM at 252.70 versus 252.08. While intraday ranges and volumes are not provided for this checkpoint, the price levels reflect modest gains across large-cap, mega-cap tech, industrial blue chips, and small caps. The S&P 500 also set a record on Christmas Eve, a first in more than a decade (MarketWatch), underscoring the breadth of the late-year advance.
Sector performance was constructive into the holiday. Technology (XLK 146.31 vs. 145.95) led on the heels of ongoing AI infrastructure and software catalysts. Notable headlines included Nvidia entering a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chipmaker Groq and absorbing part of the startup’s executive team (MarketWatch), as well as forward-looking commentary on what Nvidia investors may expect in 2026, including the impact of OpenAI’s next GPT model and data center buildouts (MarketWatch). On the software side, ServiceNow’s $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis (MarketWatch) expands its reach into cybersecurity as the company positions itself as an “AI control tower,” bolstering the theme of AI-driven operational platforms.
Health Care (XLV 155.76 vs. 154.99) was also firmer. News that Novo Nordisk was first out of the gate with an oral weight-loss drug (MarketWatch) and reports elsewhere of its obesity pill approval supporting shares (CNBC summary) point to sustained investor interest in obesity and metabolic franchises — a key narrative underpinning the sector’s relative strength. More broadly, the sector benefits from defensiveness and idiosyncratic innovation at a time when growth remains an investor preference but macro uncertainty persists.
Financials (XLF 55.71 vs. 55.43) continue to benefit from a stable yield curve and an outlook of contained inflation expectations, which can support net interest margins while limiting credit stress concerns. Meanwhile, Energy’s sector entry in our feed shows a last trade of 42.82 versus 42.62 (note: the entry is labeled XLE in the sector list though the symbol field reads XLU). Regardless of the labeling anomaly, energy benchmarks were mixed at the commodity level (see below), and the modest ETF uptick suggests underlying producer equities are holding steady.
Individual corporate headlines add nuance across Industrials and TMT. Honeywell disclosed a $470 million Flexjet-related charge and lowered its profit outlook (MarketWatch), a reminder that idiosyncratic legal and contractual exposures can offset macro tailwinds within Industrials. Conversely, Huntington Ingalls surged earlier this week on winning the U.S. Navy’s next-generation frigate contract (MarketWatch), highlighting defense as a pocket of strength tied to multi-year procurement cycles. In Media and Telecom, Paramount cited a personal $40 billion financing guarantee by Larry Ellison tied to its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery (MarketWatch), while AST SpaceMobile’s rally and ongoing satellite deployments reflect investor enthusiasm in space communications (MarketWatch). Alphabet’s purchase of data-center partner Intersect (MarketWatch) underscores escalating competition for power and infrastructure to feed AI compute demand, a secular driver that continues to anchor Technology’s leadership case.
Bonds
Treasury ETF proxies advanced into Christmas Eve. TLT (88.02 vs. 87.50), IEF (96.34 vs. 96.10), and SHY (82.735 vs. 82.68) all posted small gains. The incremental bid in duration is consistent with 10-year yields holding near 4.17% and with market-based inflation expectations that fade toward 2.3%–2.4% over 5–30 years. A calmer rate backdrop aligns with the report of diminished bond-market volatility (MarketWatch), which, in turn, has historically been supportive of equity multiples so long as growth data remain constructive.
Commodities
Precious metals have been on a strong pre-holiday run, to the point where one strategist called the move “unhinged” (MarketWatch). Our latest prints show a modest pause: GLD last traded at 411.93, just below its prior close of 413.64, while SLV edged higher to 65.23 from 64.84. The split move is consistent with broad enthusiasm for hard assets (CNBC also highlighted fresh highs earlier this week) tempered by holiday liquidity and a slightly firmer dollar technical backdrop discussed in FX coverage. The persistence of long-term inflation expectations near 2.4% and the decline in realized inflation from peaks suggest the medium-term case for gold rests more on financial-stability hedging, geopolitical risk, and real-rate trajectories than on near-term CPI re-acceleration.
Energy proxies were mixed. USO printed 70.19 versus a 70.30 prior close, while DBC was essentially flat at 22.635 versus 22.640. Natural gas (UNG) slipped to 12.395 from 12.90, continuing a weak stretch. Among industry headlines, sanctions-afflicted refinery operations in India (Bloomberg) introduce potential supply-side noise for refined products in 2026, but we do not have direct price effects in today’s data. Overall, the lack of a decisive move in diversified commodities (DBC) fits the macro narrative of steady growth without an inflation shock.
FX and crypto
FX liquidity is thin around the holiday, and our feed shows EURUSD marked at 1.1780 with limited published range data, implying a broadly steady dollar against the euro for this checkpoint. A recent note flagged the dollar closing the year with a technical “golden cross,” suggesting potential near-term support into early 2026 (MarketWatch). A steadier dollar typically leans against upside momentum in dollar-denominated commodities and can align with the slight pullback we saw in GLD today.
Crypto remains in a holding pattern intraday. Bitcoin shows a mark near 88,188 with a published session range between roughly 87,199 and 88,575, and Ethereum sits near 2,952 within a 2,910–2,971 band. A separate article observes that despite milestone wins in 2025, digital asset prices struggled and investors may look to policy support in 2026 (MarketWatch). For today, the tape suggests consolidation amid broader risk-on sentiment in equities.
Seasonality, sentiment, and positioning context
Multiple pieces revisit seasonal patterns and sentiment. The “Santa Claus rally” is historically concentrated around the final trading days of the year and the first two sessions of the new one (MarketWatch), and an additional article notes December 26 has been the most reliably positive single day for the S&P 500 (MarketWatch). That seasonal backdrop, combined with the S&P 500’s Christmas Eve record and a VIX near cycle lows (MarketWatch), captures today’s setup: supportive, but increasingly dependent on earnings follow-through and on the durability of the AI-investment cycle that has powered leadership. One strategist highlights Nvidia’s renewed strength as a bellwether for both Tech and the broader S&P 500 (MarketWatch), reinforcing the notion that a handful of mega-cap platforms still exert outsized influence on indices.
Notable single-name developments
- Nvidia and Groq: A non-exclusive licensing deal and executive hires (MarketWatch) reinforce Nvidia’s strategy to keep optionality in the AI accelerator stack while absorbing talent. This dovetails with the “what to expect in 2026” theme around model upgrades and data center expansion (MarketWatch).
- ServiceNow/Armis: A $7.75 billion acquisition expands cybersecurity capabilities aimed at creating an “AI control tower” (MarketWatch), signaling enterprise spend alignment with AI governance and security.
- Tesla: Fresh regulatory scrutiny of Model 3 doors (MarketWatch), alongside continued investor focus on robotaxis despite weaker EV sales (MarketWatch), illustrates the push-pull of headline risk versus long-duration optionality priced into the shares.
- Honeywell: A $470 million settlement tied to Flexjet and a lowered profit outlook (MarketWatch) are a reminder that litigation and program risk can intrude on otherwise constructive industrial backdrops.
- Health care innovation: Novo Nordisk’s progress with an oral weight-loss pill (MarketWatch; CNBC summary) underpins obesity/diabetes as multi-year growth themes, helping XLV’s resilience.
- Defense and space: Huntington Ingalls’ Navy frigate contract win (MarketWatch) and continued enthusiasm for space communications (AST SpaceMobile; MarketWatch) highlight pockets of secular growth decoupled from the broader cycle.
Outlook
Into the final sessions of the year and the first week of January, the market’s near-term path is likely to be set by three forces: 1) seasonal flows and positioning, 2) the trajectory of rates and inflation expectations, and 3) the cadence of AI- and health care–related catalysts. Stable 10-year yields around 4.17% with forward inflation anchored near 2.3%–2.4% are consistent with further equity resilience, but with low volatility and narrow leadership, the risk/reward is sensitive to earnings guidance and macro surprises.
What to watch next
- Rates: Any material shift in the 10-year from ~4.17% or a move in 2s toward 3.5% that challenges the current curve shape.
- Inflation signals: Early January price data and corporate pricing commentary for signs of stickiness or renewed disinflation.
- AI investment cadence: Follow-through from big-cap platforms (hardware, software, and power procurement), including integration moves like Alphabet’s Intersect acquisition and enterprise platforms expanding into cybersecurity (ServiceNow/Armis).
- Health care catalysts: Regulatory and clinical updates around obesity and cardio-metabolic drugs that could influence XLV leadership.
- Commodity volatility: Whether gold resumes breakout behavior or consolidates; watch the dollar’s technical posture for cross-asset implications.
- Crypto policy and flows: After a difficult 2025 for prices (per reporting), whether early-2026 policy cues alter sentiment.
Risks
- Policy and regulatory: Renewed scrutiny on high-profile tech and auto names; project-specific pauses (e.g., offshore wind) that can ripple through supply chains (MarketWatch).
- Macro downside: A surprise inflation flare or growth air-pocket that re-prices rates and compresses equity multiples.
- Market structure: Low-volatility complacency and crowded positioning leading to outsized reactions to negative surprises.
- Geopolitics and energy: Refining and supply disruptions (Bloomberg) and broader geopolitical shocks feeding commodity and rate volatility.
Bottom line
The market enters the final stretch of the year with equities trending higher, yields steady, and volatility subdued. Technology leadership, health care innovation, and selective industrial/defense strength remain in focus, while precious metals’ momentum is pausing at the margin. With seasonality at its back and macro data still cooperative, the path of least resistance remains sideways-to-up — but with valuations elevated and volatility compressed, disciplined risk management and close attention to rates, earnings guidance, and policy signals are warranted.