State of Market: Midday 01/26/26
Midday Market: Equities extend gains as metals surge; gas spikes again while oil eases
Stocks advance into a Fed-and-earnings-heavy week; small caps lag. Gold and silver power higher, natural gas jumps on weather, Treasurys firm with the 10-year anchored near 4.26% as of last week.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
•
At midday Monday, U.S. equities are grinding higher in a measured, broad advance as investors enter a pivotal stretch dominated by the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and marquee Big Tech earnings. The tape shows strength in large-cap benchmarks while small caps take a breather, and the cross-asset picture is striking: precious metals are ripping, natural gas is surging again on cold-weather demand, oil is softer, and Treasurys are bid. The dollar is softer versus the euro, while major cryptocurrencies are modestly green.
Equities and sectors
- SPY is trading at 693.76, up 4.53 (+0.66%) versus Friday’s close of 689.23.
- QQQ is at 626.97, higher by 4.25 (+0.68%) from 622.72.
- DIA prints 494.32, up 3.39 (+0.69%) from 490.93.
- IWM is the notable laggard at 264.35, down 0.46 (-0.17%) from 264.81.
The pattern—mega-cap strength paired with small-cap hesitation—mirrors the week’s setup. Articles in the feed highlight caution around Big Tech earnings and recommend options-based approaches for names including Meta, Microsoft, and Apple, while some commentators still see scope for the “Magnificent Seven” to reassert leadership. There’s also a steady drumbeat of AI-related narratives: renewed hopes on Nvidia’s China exposure, a fresh $2 billion Nvidia investment in CoreWeave, and debate over whether the AI “trash” has already been taken out. This helps explain why technology leadership is visible in the sector tape.
Sector ETFs confirm the tone:
- XLK (Technology) trades at 146.54, up 1.45 (+1.00%) from 145.09.
- XLF (Financials) is at 53.355, up 0.285 (+0.54%) from 53.07.
- XLV (Health Care) sits at 158.175, up 0.695 (+0.44%) from 157.48.
- XLE (Energy) shows 42.895, up 0.335 (+0.79%) from 42.56.
Technology’s outperformance ties to the week’s catalysts and AI headlines, while financials’ steady bid aligns with an article arguing large U.S. banks screen as long-term bargains on a blend of improving returns on equity and compressed price/earnings multiples. Health care is quietly positive. Energy is higher even as crude eases at the ETF level (see commodities), which may reflect underlying strength in services and selective company-level beats—SLB’s recent large profit beat was flagged over the weekend, underscoring operational momentum in oil services despite commodity price noise.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields as of January 22 (latest in the feed) place the 10-year at 4.26% and the 30-year at 4.84%, with the 2-year at 3.61% and the 5-year at 3.85%. The curve between 2s and 10s is positively sloped, and the long end remains anchored below 5%. That backdrop appears supportive for duration-sensitive risk assets today and dovetails with the bid in longer-duration Treasury ETFs.
On inflation, the December CPI index printed 326.03, with core CPI at 331.86 (levels, not year-over-year rates). Inflation expectations embedded in the model snapshot sit at 2.60% for one year, 2.33% for five years, and 2.32% for ten years, suggesting medium-to-longer-term inflation expectations remain contained near the low-2s. Articles ahead of the Fed suggest the central bank is expected to hold policy steady this week, with the key question being how long it stays pat. Another piece notes investors increasingly want clarity even more than a near-term cut, as leadership rotates and the economy shows some signs of cooling in PMIs with tariffs still weighing.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs show a modest bid consistent with the yield picture:
- TLT trades at 88.345, up 0.415 (+0.47%) from 87.93.
- IEF is 96.125, up 0.175 (+0.18%) from 95.95.
- SHY is 82.875, up 0.035 (+0.04%) from 82.84.
An article in the feed argues “now is not the time to own bonds,” favoring international equities, EM, and gold for the latter half of the 2020s. The market today, however, is expressing a near-term preference for duration, albeit modestly. This can co-exist with longer-horizon asset allocation views: positioning into a Fed hold, anchored inflation expectations, and event risk (Fed, earnings) often translates to a tactical bid for high-quality duration.
Commodities
The most striking moves are in precious metals and natural gas:
- GLD jumps to 467.43, up 9.43 (+2.06%) from 458.00. Multiple articles note gold reaching record territory, with one asserting spot has breached the $5,000/oz milestone and another making a portfolio case for gold as a hedge amid reduced confidence in Treasurys as a risk offset.
- SLV surges to 103.40, up 10.49 (+11.29%) from 92.91, echoing a headline that silver has crossed $100/oz for the first time.
- UNG advances to 15.115, up 1.145 (+8.20%) from 13.97, extending last week’s “historic” spike as a deep winter storm tightens near-term balances—though one note argues prices have overshot and could correct once weather normalizes.
- USO dips to 73.28, down 0.67 (-0.91%) from 73.95, even as the broader DBC commodity basket rises to 24.40, up 0.22 (+0.91%).
The divergence—precious metals and gas up sharply while oil eases—maps cleanly to catalysts. Metals are capturing both macro hedge demand and event anticipation. Gas is a weather story, supported by power and heating demand spikes as the cold front spreads and grid stress headlines persist. Oil softness likely reflects positioning into a heavy macro week and a lack of fresh supply/disruption headlines in this feed.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD trades near 1.1884, above its cited open in this feed, consistent with articles discussing a soft U.S. dollar run and last week’s notable FX volatility, including a sudden yen spike.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marked around 88,053, up modestly from the cited open (roughly +0.5% intraday).
- Ether (ETHUSD) is near 2,919.6, up about 2.0% from its open.
A piece in the feed emphasizes that gold—not bitcoin or bonds—remains the preferred safe haven in the current environment. Another notes a prominent investor’s preference for established crypto (bitcoin, ether) over smaller “altcoins,” aligning with today’s pattern of large-cap crypto resilience and a focus on quality across risk assets.
Notable movers and themes from the newsflow
- AI and semis: Nvidia’s additional $2 billion investment in CoreWeave underscores capital concentration in AI infrastructure. Intel’s recent reset after a vibes-driven rally, and commentary about AMD’s relative positioning, highlight dispersion within semis. These narratives help explain the positive tone for XLK and QQQ, even as stock-specific outcomes diverge.
- Big Tech earnings: A number of pieces frame investor positioning ahead of Meta, Microsoft, and Apple results, with a notable debate about valuation, spending, and AI monetization. One bull case pegs Meta for significant upside driven by AI.
- Tesla: Ahead of earnings, retail shareholders are focused on capital allocation and a robotaxi roadmap. Another article highlights a milestone as safety drivers are removed from some robotaxi rides, with ambitions for wider U.S. rollout by year-end 2026.
- Social media policy overhang: TikTok’s U.S. joint venture formation and CEO appointment could reduce immediate regulatory risk for the platform’s U.S. operations.
- Financials: One analysis suggests many large-bank stocks screen attractively for long-term investors given ROE trends and multiple compression, consistent with XLF’s bid today.
- Energy services: SLB’s strong beat keeps attention on oilfield services execution despite day-to-day oil price noise.
- Transport and weather: The winter storm remains a near-term operational headwind for airlines; one piece cites JetBlue as disproportionately impacted, while the Transportation Secretary expects air travel normalization by Wednesday.
- Credit markets: A private-credit vehicle tied to BlackRock faces a sizable NAV markdown, a reminder to monitor fund-level liquidity and valuation risks in less transparent parts of credit.
How it fits together
The market is balancing three forces: 1) a benign near-term rates backdrop with contained inflation expectations; 2) an earnings calendar that will test AI and megacap narratives; and 3) a macro-hedge bid that is showing up most clearly in gold and silver. The result is a modestly higher, quality-led equity tape, a firmer Treasury complex, and a defensive tilt in cross-asset hedges (metals) alongside idiosyncratic weather-driven strength (natural gas). Small caps’ underperformance hints at tighter financial conditions at the margin and higher beta sensitivity to any downside growth surprises, consistent with the PMI cooling and tariff-related drag highlighted in the feed.
Outlook: what to watch next
- The Fed: Markets expect no change, so focus is on the statement tone and any guidance about the duration of “hold,” balance-sheet language, and the inflation/growth risk balance. With the 10-year near 4.26% (as of last week’s snapshot) and duration bid today, a hawkish surprise could reverse some of the Treasury and tech strength.
- Big Tech earnings: Meta, Microsoft, and Apple will set the tone for AI monetization, capex sustainability, and cash-return priorities. Options strategies highlighted in the feed suggest positioning is cautious into prints.
- Tesla earnings and autonomy updates: Investors’ questions center on capital allocation and how any potential SpaceX-related developments might intersect with shareholder priorities. Robotaxi execution milestones will be scrutinized.
- Natural gas/weather: With UNG spiking again, watch for signs of normalization post-storm and any follow-on comments about grid stress, which could influence utility and energy demand narratives.
- FX volatility: After last week’s yen episode and a softer dollar run, watch for post-Fed currency moves; a stronger dollar could pressure commodities and non-U.S. risk, while continued dollar softness would support them.
- Credit and liquidity: The private-credit markdown in the feed is a reminder to monitor fund-level valuation risk; any spread widening could feed back into small-cap financing conditions.
Risks
- Policy and tariffs: Several pieces caution that markets may be underpricing tariff risk; re-escalation could impact growth, inflation, and earnings.
- Government shutdown risk: Odds of a near-term U.S. shutdown are cited as elevated in the feed; a prolonged shutdown would weigh on sentiment and data flow.
- Earnings disappointment: High expectations for megacaps create asymmetry; weaker guidance or AI monetization delays could hit leadership cohorts and broad indices.
- Energy and weather: Severe winter conditions risk operational disruptions (airlines, logistics) and further commodity volatility, notably in natural gas.
- Credit/Private markets: Valuation marks and liquidity dynamics in private credit could spill over to public credit and small-cap equities.
- FX shocks: Sudden moves (as seen in the yen) can tighten financial conditions and reprice global risk quickly.
Bottom line
Midday, the equity market is leaning constructive, led by technology and supported by steady financials and health care, even as small caps lag. A firm bid in Treasurys complements a powerful surge in gold and silver, with natural gas volatility persisting on weather. The setup heading into the Fed and Big Tech earnings argues for disciplined risk management: leadership could be reinforced if guidance and policy tone cooperate, but the concentration of catalysts and persistent macro hedging argue for vigilance around reversals, especially if yields or the dollar lurch higher post-Fed or if earnings underwhelm.
At midday Monday, U.S. equities are grinding higher in a measured, broad advance as investors enter a pivotal stretch dominated by the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and marquee Big Tech earnings. The tape shows strength in large-cap benchmarks while small caps take a breather, and the cross-asset picture is striking: precious metals are ripping, natural gas is surging again on cold-weather demand, oil is softer, and Treasurys are bid. The dollar is softer versus the euro, while major cryptocurrencies are modestly green.
Equities and sectors
- SPY is trading at 693.76, up 4.53 (+0.66%) versus Friday’s close of 689.23.
- QQQ is at 626.97, higher by 4.25 (+0.68%) from 622.72.
- DIA prints 494.32, up 3.39 (+0.69%) from 490.93.
- IWM is the notable laggard at 264.35, down 0.46 (-0.17%) from 264.81.
The pattern—mega-cap strength paired with small-cap hesitation—mirrors the week’s setup. Articles in the feed highlight caution around Big Tech earnings and recommend options-based approaches for names including Meta, Microsoft, and Apple, while some commentators still see scope for the “Magnificent Seven” to reassert leadership. There’s also a steady drumbeat of AI-related narratives: renewed hopes on Nvidia’s China exposure, a fresh $2 billion Nvidia investment in CoreWeave, and debate over whether the AI “trash” has already been taken out. This helps explain why technology leadership is visible in the sector tape.
Sector ETFs confirm the tone:
- XLK (Technology) trades at 146.54, up 1.45 (+1.00%) from 145.09.
- XLF (Financials) is at 53.355, up 0.285 (+0.54%) from 53.07.
- XLV (Health Care) sits at 158.175, up 0.695 (+0.44%) from 157.48.
- XLE (Energy) shows 42.895, up 0.335 (+0.79%) from 42.56.
Technology’s outperformance ties to the week’s catalysts and AI headlines, while financials’ steady bid aligns with an article arguing large U.S. banks screen as long-term bargains on a blend of improving returns on equity and compressed price/earnings multiples. Health care is quietly positive. Energy is higher even as crude eases at the ETF level (see commodities), which may reflect underlying strength in services and selective company-level beats—SLB’s recent large profit beat was flagged over the weekend, underscoring operational momentum in oil services despite commodity price noise.
Macro backdrop: rates, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields as of January 22 (latest in the feed) place the 10-year at 4.26% and the 30-year at 4.84%, with the 2-year at 3.61% and the 5-year at 3.85%. The curve between 2s and 10s is positively sloped, and the long end remains anchored below 5%. That backdrop appears supportive for duration-sensitive risk assets today and dovetails with the bid in longer-duration Treasury ETFs.
On inflation, the December CPI index printed 326.03, with core CPI at 331.86 (levels, not year-over-year rates). Inflation expectations embedded in the model snapshot sit at 2.60% for one year, 2.33% for five years, and 2.32% for ten years, suggesting medium-to-longer-term inflation expectations remain contained near the low-2s. Articles ahead of the Fed suggest the central bank is expected to hold policy steady this week, with the key question being how long it stays pat. Another piece notes investors increasingly want clarity even more than a near-term cut, as leadership rotates and the economy shows some signs of cooling in PMIs with tariffs still weighing.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs show a modest bid consistent with the yield picture:
- TLT trades at 88.345, up 0.415 (+0.47%) from 87.93.
- IEF is 96.125, up 0.175 (+0.18%) from 95.95.
- SHY is 82.875, up 0.035 (+0.04%) from 82.84.
An article in the feed argues “now is not the time to own bonds,” favoring international equities, EM, and gold for the latter half of the 2020s. The market today, however, is expressing a near-term preference for duration, albeit modestly. This can co-exist with longer-horizon asset allocation views: positioning into a Fed hold, anchored inflation expectations, and event risk (Fed, earnings) often translates to a tactical bid for high-quality duration.
Commodities
The most striking moves are in precious metals and natural gas:
- GLD jumps to 467.43, up 9.43 (+2.06%) from 458.00. Multiple articles note gold reaching record territory, with one asserting spot has breached the $5,000/oz milestone and another making a portfolio case for gold as a hedge amid reduced confidence in Treasurys as a risk offset.
- SLV surges to 103.40, up 10.49 (+11.29%) from 92.91, echoing a headline that silver has crossed $100/oz for the first time.
- UNG advances to 15.115, up 1.145 (+8.20%) from 13.97, extending last week’s “historic” spike as a deep winter storm tightens near-term balances—though one note argues prices have overshot and could correct once weather normalizes.
- USO dips to 73.28, down 0.67 (-0.91%) from 73.95, even as the broader DBC commodity basket rises to 24.40, up 0.22 (+0.91%).
The divergence—precious metals and gas up sharply while oil eases—maps cleanly to catalysts. Metals are capturing both macro hedge demand and event anticipation. Gas is a weather story, supported by power and heating demand spikes as the cold front spreads and grid stress headlines persist. Oil softness likely reflects positioning into a heavy macro week and a lack of fresh supply/disruption headlines in this feed.
FX and crypto
- EURUSD trades near 1.1884, above its cited open in this feed, consistent with articles discussing a soft U.S. dollar run and last week’s notable FX volatility, including a sudden yen spike.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marked around 88,053, up modestly from the cited open (roughly +0.5% intraday).
- Ether (ETHUSD) is near 2,919.6, up about 2.0% from its open.
A piece in the feed emphasizes that gold—not bitcoin or bonds—remains the preferred safe haven in the current environment. Another notes a prominent investor’s preference for established crypto (bitcoin, ether) over smaller “altcoins,” aligning with today’s pattern of large-cap crypto resilience and a focus on quality across risk assets.
Notable movers and themes from the newsflow
- AI and semis: Nvidia’s additional $2 billion investment in CoreWeave underscores capital concentration in AI infrastructure. Intel’s recent reset after a vibes-driven rally, and commentary about AMD’s relative positioning, highlight dispersion within semis. These narratives help explain the positive tone for XLK and QQQ, even as stock-specific outcomes diverge.
- Big Tech earnings: A number of pieces frame investor positioning ahead of Meta, Microsoft, and Apple results, with a notable debate about valuation, spending, and AI monetization. One bull case pegs Meta for significant upside driven by AI.
- Tesla: Ahead of earnings, retail shareholders are focused on capital allocation and a robotaxi roadmap. Another article highlights a milestone as safety drivers are removed from some robotaxi rides, with ambitions for wider U.S. rollout by year-end 2026.
- Social media policy overhang: TikTok’s U.S. joint venture formation and CEO appointment could reduce immediate regulatory risk for the platform’s U.S. operations.
- Financials: One analysis suggests many large-bank stocks screen attractively for long-term investors given ROE trends and multiple compression, consistent with XLF’s bid today.
- Energy services: SLB’s strong beat keeps attention on oilfield services execution despite day-to-day oil price noise.
- Transport and weather: The winter storm remains a near-term operational headwind for airlines; one piece cites JetBlue as disproportionately impacted, while the Transportation Secretary expects air travel normalization by Wednesday.
- Credit markets: A private-credit vehicle tied to BlackRock faces a sizable NAV markdown, a reminder to monitor fund-level liquidity and valuation risks in less transparent parts of credit.
How it fits together
The market is balancing three forces: 1) a benign near-term rates backdrop with contained inflation expectations; 2) an earnings calendar that will test AI and megacap narratives; and 3) a macro-hedge bid that is showing up most clearly in gold and silver. The result is a modestly higher, quality-led equity tape, a firmer Treasury complex, and a defensive tilt in cross-asset hedges (metals) alongside idiosyncratic weather-driven strength (natural gas). Small caps’ underperformance hints at tighter financial conditions at the margin and higher beta sensitivity to any downside growth surprises, consistent with the PMI cooling and tariff-related drag highlighted in the feed.
Outlook: what to watch next
- The Fed: Markets expect no change, so focus is on the statement tone and any guidance about the duration of “hold,” balance-sheet language, and the inflation/growth risk balance. With the 10-year near 4.26% (as of last week’s snapshot) and duration bid today, a hawkish surprise could reverse some of the Treasury and tech strength.
- Big Tech earnings: Meta, Microsoft, and Apple will set the tone for AI monetization, capex sustainability, and cash-return priorities. Options strategies highlighted in the feed suggest positioning is cautious into prints.
- Tesla earnings and autonomy updates: Investors’ questions center on capital allocation and how any potential SpaceX-related developments might intersect with shareholder priorities. Robotaxi execution milestones will be scrutinized.
- Natural gas/weather: With UNG spiking again, watch for signs of normalization post-storm and any follow-on comments about grid stress, which could influence utility and energy demand narratives.
- FX volatility: After last week’s yen episode and a softer dollar run, watch for post-Fed currency moves; a stronger dollar could pressure commodities and non-U.S. risk, while continued dollar softness would support them.
- Credit and liquidity: The private-credit markdown in the feed is a reminder to monitor fund-level valuation risk; any spread widening could feed back into small-cap financing conditions.
Risks
- Policy and tariffs: Several pieces caution that markets may be underpricing tariff risk; re-escalation could impact growth, inflation, and earnings.
- Government shutdown risk: Odds of a near-term U.S. shutdown are cited as elevated in the feed; a prolonged shutdown would weigh on sentiment and data flow.
- Earnings disappointment: High expectations for megacaps create asymmetry; weaker guidance or AI monetization delays could hit leadership cohorts and broad indices.
- Energy and weather: Severe winter conditions risk operational disruptions (airlines, logistics) and further commodity volatility, notably in natural gas.
- Credit/Private markets: Valuation marks and liquidity dynamics in private credit could spill over to public credit and small-cap equities.
- FX shocks: Sudden moves (as seen in the yen) can tighten financial conditions and reprice global risk quickly.
Bottom line
Midday, the equity market is leaning constructive, led by technology and supported by steady financials and health care, even as small caps lag. A firm bid in Treasurys complements a powerful surge in gold and silver, with natural gas volatility persisting on weather. The setup heading into the Fed and Big Tech earnings argues for disciplined risk management: leadership could be reinforced if guidance and policy tone cooperate, but the concentration of catalysts and persistent macro hedging argue for vigilance around reversals, especially if yields or the dollar lurch higher post-Fed or if earnings underwhelm.