State of Market: Midday 12/15/25
Midday market: Equities ease while bonds and precious metals firm; AI rotation narrative stays in focus
SPY, QQQ, DIA and IWM trade modestly lower at midday; health care outperforms while tech lags; silver and gold rise, oil and natural gas slip; crypto trades lower; investors weigh Fed signaling, labor/inflation uncertainties, and AI spending debates.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday
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Overview
U.S. equities are modestly lower at midday Monday, with broad benchmarks giving back a sliver of last week’s sharp swings as investors digest mixed macro signals and a steady drumbeat of AI-related corporate headlines. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) trades around 680.08 versus a prior close of 681.76 (about -0.25%). The Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) sits near 610.90 against 613.62 previously (-0.44%), while the Dow proxy (DIA) is around 484.14 versus 485.40 (-0.26%). Small caps (IWM) underperform at roughly 252.08 versus 253.85 (-0.70%).
Under the surface, health care is outperforming while technology is lagging, consistent with a continued rotation impulse flagged by recent coverage. In fixed income, Treasury ETFs are firmer across the curve, aligning with a cautious tone and stabilized inflation expectations. Precious metals are bid, while energy-linked commodities trade softer. The dollar is little changed versus the euro on limited intraday data, and major crypto tokens are lower.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The latest available Treasury yield levels show a positively sloped curve from the 2-year out through the long end, with notable term premium evident at the 30-year:
- 2-year: 3.52%
- 5-year: 3.72%
- 10-year: 4.14%
- 30-year: 4.79%
Against that curve configuration, today’s bond ETF tape points to a modest bid for duration: the long-bond proxy TLT trades around 87.43 versus 87.34 previously (up roughly 0.10%); the 7–10-year proxy IEF is near 96.28 versus 96.19 (up about 0.09%); and the 1–3-year proxy SHY is around 82.92 versus 82.87 (+0.05%). While spot yields for today are not provided, firmer Treasury ETFs at midday generally imply a small drift lower in yields versus Friday’s close.
Inflation readings remain anchored in the latest reported snapshots. Headline CPI (September 2025) is 324.368, with core CPI at 330.542. While year-over-year or month-over-month changes are not provided, market-based inflation compensation remains steady in November’s estimates: 5-year at 2.35%, 10-year at 2.27%, and the 5y5y forward at 2.18%. These levels are consistent with medium-term inflation expectations that are close to pre-pandemic norms and support the view that policy easing can continue if growth slows without unmooring price stability. The macro narrative in recent coverage has balanced concerns about labor-market fragility and dissent within the Federal Reserve about the pace of rate cuts, suggesting incoming data on jobs and prices will remain the primary catalysts for rate-path reassessment.
Equities: broad indices and sectors
- SPY: 680.08 last vs. 681.76 prior close (about -0.25%).
- QQQ: 610.90 vs. 613.62 (-0.44%).
- DIA: 484.14 vs. 485.40 (-0.26%).
- IWM: 252.08 vs. 253.85 (-0.70%).
The midday softness follows last week’s volatility and a widely discussed rotation out of the most expensive AI-linked winners into relatively neglected parts of the market. Articles highlight that investors have been “dumping stock-market winners and buying almost everything else,” interpreting the rotation as a potentially constructive broadening of leadership—even if it introduces turbulence for the largest growth stocks in the near term. That framing aligns with today’s sector skew: health care is leading while technology lags.
Sector ETFs (quotes provided) show:
- XLV (Health Care): 155.69 last vs. 154.06 prior (+1.06%). Health care’s outperformance may reflect defensive positioning and interest in steady earnings profiles as investors reassess cyclicality and AI capex sensitivity across tech.
- XLK (Technology): 142.65 vs. 143.69 (-0.72%). The setback tracks ongoing debate about AI spending intensity and payback periods, with several articles spotlighting caution around hyperscale capex and vendor financing structures.
- XLF (Financials): 54.88 vs. 54.95 (-0.13%). Largely flat, suggesting little incremental read from the rate backdrop at midday. Recently, select financials such as Visa (V) received favorable attention tied to improving consumer and travel tailwinds; that said, today’s broad tape is subdued.
Within the AI complex, multiple headlines keep the theme front and center. Oracle (ORCL) remains under pressure in recent coverage amid investor concerns about financing plans around AI infrastructure, and one report last week noted a sharp drop that reverberated across other AI leaders including Nvidia (NVDA). By contrast, Broadcom (AVGO) drew support from earnings tied to AI momentum, though a separate piece flagged investor confusion around disclosures about a new AI customer. The mixed tone underscores why technology leadership is uneven today. Meta (META) drew supportive commentary suggesting it remains an AI beneficiary and a “buy the dip” candidate; JPMorgan argued Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) could be among the better-positioned AI names into next year. Tesla (TSLA) has seen renewed optimism around its AI/autonomy roadmap, with coverage noting shares flirting with new highs on an aggressive long-term valuation case. Rivian (RIVN), however, illustrated that AI narratives alone don’t offset execution and profitability debates, with a negative tone around its “Autonomy and AI Day.”
Retail and earnings-linked headlines were mixed. Costco (COST) topped revenue and sales expectations in one report, but another described the quarter as a mixed snapshot even as profits rose—typical of a late-cycle dynamic where top-line and margin trends diverge. Elsewhere, Lululemon (LULU) faced a leadership change after a challenging year, reinforcing how stock-specific execution can overwhelm broader retail trends. Visa (V) was highlighted as a Dow leader recently as investors reassessed laggards positively following the Fed’s policy shift.
Other notable single-stock items include Sanofi (SNY), which slumped after setbacks on a multiple-sclerosis drug, and iRobot (IRBT), which filed for Chapter 11 and is set to go private under new ownership—a stark reminder of how quickly technological competition and strategic setbacks can alter outcomes in consumer hardware. Cannabis equities rallied late last week—Tilray (TLRY) was singled out—on reports the administration could reclassify marijuana to a less restrictive category.
Bonds
Rates proxies are modestly higher at midday: TLT (long duration) sits near 87.43 vs. 87.34 prior, IEF (7–10 years) is around 96.28 vs. 96.19, and SHY (1–3 years) is approximately 82.92 vs. 82.87. This pattern—firm prices across the curve—coheres with anchored inflation expectations and lingering uncertainty about near-term growth momentum reflected in recent commentary about the labor market and the Fed’s rate path. One piece cautioned that the bond market’s rally off the latest Fed cut “could change come January,” underscoring that positioning and data dependency remain key. With the 10-year last reported at 4.14% and the 2-year at 3.52%, the curve’s positive slope from 2s to 10s/30s suggests the market is willing to price policy easing and term premium simultaneously.
Commodities
Precious metals are firmer, while energy is softer:
- GLD: 395.92 last vs. 395.44 prior (+0.12%).
- SLV: 57.59 vs. 56.10 (+2.66%). Silver is outperforming gold at midday, often a sign of cyclical sensitivity or positioning unwind dynamics; either way, the bid in metals aligns with the modest bid for duration and stable inflation expectations.
- USO: 67.68 vs. 68.81 (-1.64%).
- UNG: 12.55 vs. 12.73 (-1.41%).
- DBC (broad commodities): 22.77 vs. 22.92 (-0.66%).
Energy’s pullback occurs against a backdrop of geopolitical and policy crosscurrents and reports discussing potential changes in global supply dynamics. A separate piece noted that regime change in Venezuela would take time and significant investment to alter output meaningfully—tempering hopes for swift supply relief.
FX and crypto
EURUSD marks near 1.1740 at the time of this report. The open was around 1.1731. Intraday context is limited, but the euro-dollar pair appears little changed, consistent with a day dominated more by equity-sector rotation and commodity moves than by currency catalysts.
Crypto is softer:
- BTCUSD: ~85,567 mark vs. an open of ~89,694 (down about 4.6%); intraday low reported near ~85,508.
- ETHUSD: ~2,927 mark vs. an open of ~3,124 (down about 6.3%).
Recent coverage highlighted that bitcoin was largely unmoved by the latest Fed cut, a reminder that crypto-specific flows and positioning can dominate over traditional macro impulses during certain periods. Today’s pressure is consistent with risk taking being more selective across the board and with lingering profit-taking in prior winners.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- AI spending and financing scrutiny: Oracle (ORCL) remains a focal point as investors question its AI financing strategy. Related coverage described spillover pressure into other AI leaders, including Nvidia (NVDA). Conversely, Broadcom (AVGO) delivered results supported by AI momentum, though investors sought clarity on a new AI customer. This push-pull helps explain XLK’s midday underperformance.
- Tesla (TSLA) optimism: A piece noted shares flirting with a new high on a bold long-term valuation call tied to AI/autonomy. That stands out as a counter-trend within mega-cap growth amid a more cautious broader tech tape.
- Health care strength with idiosyncratic movers: XLV’s outperformance contrasts with a Sanofi (SNY) slump after MS program setbacks, underscoring dispersion within the sector even as investors rotate toward defensives.
- Consumer and retail: Costco (COST) drew mixed reviews despite topping expectations in one report, reflecting a nuanced fundamental backdrop. Lululemon (LULU) contended with a CEO departure after a volatile year. Visa (V) was cited as pacing Dow gainers in a recent session as investors revisited quality in value-laggard financials.
- Policy and regulation: Cannabis shares, including Tilray (TLRY), rallied on reports of a potential federal reclassification, while articles examined the implications of recent Fed decisions, dissenting views on the timing of cuts, and labor-market ambiguity heading into more data.
- Strategic and balance-sheet considerations in media: Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) appeared in coverage emphasizing debt structures and bid dynamics—reminders that cost of capital and deal financing remain central investor considerations into year-end.
- Corporate distress and restructuring: iRobot (IRBT) filed for bankruptcy and is set to go private, reflecting how competitive intensity and strategic missteps can culminate in rapid value resets.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Labor and inflation data: Several reports pointed to a messy, delayed employment picture and upcoming inflation prints. With dissent inside the Fed on the pace of easing, the next jobs and CPI/PCE updates will be pivotal for rate-path expectations and for determining whether the bond rally can extend.
- AI capex digestion: Expect continued volatility around hyperscale spending plans, vendor financing, and ROI timelines. Stock-specific headlines (ORCL, NVDA, AVGO, META, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA) will likely drive factor dispersion within tech.
- Positioning into the year’s final stretch: A late-year rotation has favored cyclicals and defensives at different times. Today’s tape—health care up, tech down—suggests continued choppiness as managers rebalance exposures and lock in 2025 performance.
- Commodities and the dollar: Precious metals’ bid and softer energy prices merit monitoring; a decisive move in EURUSD could act as an additional macro signal if it emerges alongside data surprises.
Key near-term risks
- Data disappointment: A weaker-than-expected jobs or inflation report could reignite growth fears and challenge the soft-landing consensus.
- AI-spending reset: Any further evidence of slowed AI infrastructure commitments or more aggressive financing could unwind premium valuations across AI-levered names.
- Policy uncertainty: Divergent views inside the Fed on timing/scale of cuts, plus regulatory/political headlines (e.g., cannabis scheduling, trade policy), can add volatility.
- Liquidity and year-end flows: Thin liquidity into the holidays can amplify intraday moves, especially around rebalancing.
Bottom line
Midday trading reflects a modest “risk-trim” posture: broad indices are slightly lower, with tech lagging and health care leading; Treasurys are bid; gold and silver are firm; oil and gas are softer; and crypto is under pressure. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and the curve still reflects room for policy easing alongside a positive term premium. With AI narratives and macro data uncertainty sharing the driver’s seat, expect continued rotation and dispersion to define the final trading days of the year.
Overview
U.S. equities are modestly lower at midday Monday, with broad benchmarks giving back a sliver of last week’s sharp swings as investors digest mixed macro signals and a steady drumbeat of AI-related corporate headlines. The S&P 500 proxy (SPY) trades around 680.08 versus a prior close of 681.76 (about -0.25%). The Nasdaq-100 tracker (QQQ) sits near 610.90 against 613.62 previously (-0.44%), while the Dow proxy (DIA) is around 484.14 versus 485.40 (-0.26%). Small caps (IWM) underperform at roughly 252.08 versus 253.85 (-0.70%).
Under the surface, health care is outperforming while technology is lagging, consistent with a continued rotation impulse flagged by recent coverage. In fixed income, Treasury ETFs are firmer across the curve, aligning with a cautious tone and stabilized inflation expectations. Precious metals are bid, while energy-linked commodities trade softer. The dollar is little changed versus the euro on limited intraday data, and major crypto tokens are lower.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
The latest available Treasury yield levels show a positively sloped curve from the 2-year out through the long end, with notable term premium evident at the 30-year:
- 2-year: 3.52%
- 5-year: 3.72%
- 10-year: 4.14%
- 30-year: 4.79%
Against that curve configuration, today’s bond ETF tape points to a modest bid for duration: the long-bond proxy TLT trades around 87.43 versus 87.34 previously (up roughly 0.10%); the 7–10-year proxy IEF is near 96.28 versus 96.19 (up about 0.09%); and the 1–3-year proxy SHY is around 82.92 versus 82.87 (+0.05%). While spot yields for today are not provided, firmer Treasury ETFs at midday generally imply a small drift lower in yields versus Friday’s close.
Inflation readings remain anchored in the latest reported snapshots. Headline CPI (September 2025) is 324.368, with core CPI at 330.542. While year-over-year or month-over-month changes are not provided, market-based inflation compensation remains steady in November’s estimates: 5-year at 2.35%, 10-year at 2.27%, and the 5y5y forward at 2.18%. These levels are consistent with medium-term inflation expectations that are close to pre-pandemic norms and support the view that policy easing can continue if growth slows without unmooring price stability. The macro narrative in recent coverage has balanced concerns about labor-market fragility and dissent within the Federal Reserve about the pace of rate cuts, suggesting incoming data on jobs and prices will remain the primary catalysts for rate-path reassessment.
Equities: broad indices and sectors
- SPY: 680.08 last vs. 681.76 prior close (about -0.25%).
- QQQ: 610.90 vs. 613.62 (-0.44%).
- DIA: 484.14 vs. 485.40 (-0.26%).
- IWM: 252.08 vs. 253.85 (-0.70%).
The midday softness follows last week’s volatility and a widely discussed rotation out of the most expensive AI-linked winners into relatively neglected parts of the market. Articles highlight that investors have been “dumping stock-market winners and buying almost everything else,” interpreting the rotation as a potentially constructive broadening of leadership—even if it introduces turbulence for the largest growth stocks in the near term. That framing aligns with today’s sector skew: health care is leading while technology lags.
Sector ETFs (quotes provided) show:
- XLV (Health Care): 155.69 last vs. 154.06 prior (+1.06%). Health care’s outperformance may reflect defensive positioning and interest in steady earnings profiles as investors reassess cyclicality and AI capex sensitivity across tech.
- XLK (Technology): 142.65 vs. 143.69 (-0.72%). The setback tracks ongoing debate about AI spending intensity and payback periods, with several articles spotlighting caution around hyperscale capex and vendor financing structures.
- XLF (Financials): 54.88 vs. 54.95 (-0.13%). Largely flat, suggesting little incremental read from the rate backdrop at midday. Recently, select financials such as Visa (V) received favorable attention tied to improving consumer and travel tailwinds; that said, today’s broad tape is subdued.
Within the AI complex, multiple headlines keep the theme front and center. Oracle (ORCL) remains under pressure in recent coverage amid investor concerns about financing plans around AI infrastructure, and one report last week noted a sharp drop that reverberated across other AI leaders including Nvidia (NVDA). By contrast, Broadcom (AVGO) drew support from earnings tied to AI momentum, though a separate piece flagged investor confusion around disclosures about a new AI customer. The mixed tone underscores why technology leadership is uneven today. Meta (META) drew supportive commentary suggesting it remains an AI beneficiary and a “buy the dip” candidate; JPMorgan argued Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) could be among the better-positioned AI names into next year. Tesla (TSLA) has seen renewed optimism around its AI/autonomy roadmap, with coverage noting shares flirting with new highs on an aggressive long-term valuation case. Rivian (RIVN), however, illustrated that AI narratives alone don’t offset execution and profitability debates, with a negative tone around its “Autonomy and AI Day.”
Retail and earnings-linked headlines were mixed. Costco (COST) topped revenue and sales expectations in one report, but another described the quarter as a mixed snapshot even as profits rose—typical of a late-cycle dynamic where top-line and margin trends diverge. Elsewhere, Lululemon (LULU) faced a leadership change after a challenging year, reinforcing how stock-specific execution can overwhelm broader retail trends. Visa (V) was highlighted as a Dow leader recently as investors reassessed laggards positively following the Fed’s policy shift.
Other notable single-stock items include Sanofi (SNY), which slumped after setbacks on a multiple-sclerosis drug, and iRobot (IRBT), which filed for Chapter 11 and is set to go private under new ownership—a stark reminder of how quickly technological competition and strategic setbacks can alter outcomes in consumer hardware. Cannabis equities rallied late last week—Tilray (TLRY) was singled out—on reports the administration could reclassify marijuana to a less restrictive category.
Bonds
Rates proxies are modestly higher at midday: TLT (long duration) sits near 87.43 vs. 87.34 prior, IEF (7–10 years) is around 96.28 vs. 96.19, and SHY (1–3 years) is approximately 82.92 vs. 82.87. This pattern—firm prices across the curve—coheres with anchored inflation expectations and lingering uncertainty about near-term growth momentum reflected in recent commentary about the labor market and the Fed’s rate path. One piece cautioned that the bond market’s rally off the latest Fed cut “could change come January,” underscoring that positioning and data dependency remain key. With the 10-year last reported at 4.14% and the 2-year at 3.52%, the curve’s positive slope from 2s to 10s/30s suggests the market is willing to price policy easing and term premium simultaneously.
Commodities
Precious metals are firmer, while energy is softer:
- GLD: 395.92 last vs. 395.44 prior (+0.12%).
- SLV: 57.59 vs. 56.10 (+2.66%). Silver is outperforming gold at midday, often a sign of cyclical sensitivity or positioning unwind dynamics; either way, the bid in metals aligns with the modest bid for duration and stable inflation expectations.
- USO: 67.68 vs. 68.81 (-1.64%).
- UNG: 12.55 vs. 12.73 (-1.41%).
- DBC (broad commodities): 22.77 vs. 22.92 (-0.66%).
Energy’s pullback occurs against a backdrop of geopolitical and policy crosscurrents and reports discussing potential changes in global supply dynamics. A separate piece noted that regime change in Venezuela would take time and significant investment to alter output meaningfully—tempering hopes for swift supply relief.
FX and crypto
EURUSD marks near 1.1740 at the time of this report. The open was around 1.1731. Intraday context is limited, but the euro-dollar pair appears little changed, consistent with a day dominated more by equity-sector rotation and commodity moves than by currency catalysts.
Crypto is softer:
- BTCUSD: ~85,567 mark vs. an open of ~89,694 (down about 4.6%); intraday low reported near ~85,508.
- ETHUSD: ~2,927 mark vs. an open of ~3,124 (down about 6.3%).
Recent coverage highlighted that bitcoin was largely unmoved by the latest Fed cut, a reminder that crypto-specific flows and positioning can dominate over traditional macro impulses during certain periods. Today’s pressure is consistent with risk taking being more selective across the board and with lingering profit-taking in prior winners.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- AI spending and financing scrutiny: Oracle (ORCL) remains a focal point as investors question its AI financing strategy. Related coverage described spillover pressure into other AI leaders, including Nvidia (NVDA). Conversely, Broadcom (AVGO) delivered results supported by AI momentum, though investors sought clarity on a new AI customer. This push-pull helps explain XLK’s midday underperformance.
- Tesla (TSLA) optimism: A piece noted shares flirting with a new high on a bold long-term valuation call tied to AI/autonomy. That stands out as a counter-trend within mega-cap growth amid a more cautious broader tech tape.
- Health care strength with idiosyncratic movers: XLV’s outperformance contrasts with a Sanofi (SNY) slump after MS program setbacks, underscoring dispersion within the sector even as investors rotate toward defensives.
- Consumer and retail: Costco (COST) drew mixed reviews despite topping expectations in one report, reflecting a nuanced fundamental backdrop. Lululemon (LULU) contended with a CEO departure after a volatile year. Visa (V) was cited as pacing Dow gainers in a recent session as investors revisited quality in value-laggard financials.
- Policy and regulation: Cannabis shares, including Tilray (TLRY), rallied on reports of a potential federal reclassification, while articles examined the implications of recent Fed decisions, dissenting views on the timing of cuts, and labor-market ambiguity heading into more data.
- Strategic and balance-sheet considerations in media: Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) appeared in coverage emphasizing debt structures and bid dynamics—reminders that cost of capital and deal financing remain central investor considerations into year-end.
- Corporate distress and restructuring: iRobot (IRBT) filed for bankruptcy and is set to go private, reflecting how competitive intensity and strategic missteps can culminate in rapid value resets.
Outlook: what to watch next
- Labor and inflation data: Several reports pointed to a messy, delayed employment picture and upcoming inflation prints. With dissent inside the Fed on the pace of easing, the next jobs and CPI/PCE updates will be pivotal for rate-path expectations and for determining whether the bond rally can extend.
- AI capex digestion: Expect continued volatility around hyperscale spending plans, vendor financing, and ROI timelines. Stock-specific headlines (ORCL, NVDA, AVGO, META, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA) will likely drive factor dispersion within tech.
- Positioning into the year’s final stretch: A late-year rotation has favored cyclicals and defensives at different times. Today’s tape—health care up, tech down—suggests continued choppiness as managers rebalance exposures and lock in 2025 performance.
- Commodities and the dollar: Precious metals’ bid and softer energy prices merit monitoring; a decisive move in EURUSD could act as an additional macro signal if it emerges alongside data surprises.
Key near-term risks
- Data disappointment: A weaker-than-expected jobs or inflation report could reignite growth fears and challenge the soft-landing consensus.
- AI-spending reset: Any further evidence of slowed AI infrastructure commitments or more aggressive financing could unwind premium valuations across AI-levered names.
- Policy uncertainty: Divergent views inside the Fed on timing/scale of cuts, plus regulatory/political headlines (e.g., cannabis scheduling, trade policy), can add volatility.
- Liquidity and year-end flows: Thin liquidity into the holidays can amplify intraday moves, especially around rebalancing.
Bottom line
Midday trading reflects a modest “risk-trim” posture: broad indices are slightly lower, with tech lagging and health care leading; Treasurys are bid; gold and silver are firm; oil and gas are softer; and crypto is under pressure. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and the curve still reflects room for policy easing alongside a positive term premium. With AI narratives and macro data uncertainty sharing the driver’s seat, expect continued rotation and dispersion to define the final trading days of the year.