State of Market: Open 01/21/26
Markets Attempt a Measured Rebound at the Open as Tariff Jitters and Haven Flows Collide
Equities inch higher after Tuesday’s slide; long-end yields remain elevated while gold holds firm. Policy headlines around U.S.-Europe tariffs and a busy earnings slate shape the tape.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Opening overview
U.S. equities opened with a cautiously constructive tone following the prior session’s broad selloff tied to renewed tariff risks between the U.S. and Europe. The major index ETFs show modest early gains: SPY last traded near 679.38 versus a previous close of 677.58, QQQ near 609.07 versus 608.06, DIA at 485.78 versus 484.88, and IWM at 264.54 versus 262.58. The early firmness suggests investors are probing for stabilization while still digesting a heavy mix of macro headlines.
On the macro front, long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated. As of the latest available readings, the 10-year sits at 4.24% and the 30-year at 4.83%, with the front end lower (2-year at 3.59%). Articles highlighted a sharp Treasury selloff on Tuesday on tariff concerns, and this morning’s early upticks in long-duration bond ETFs point to a tentative bid for duration after that stress. In commodities, haven demand is still present: GLD is well above yesterday’s close, while SLV also edges higher. Energy and broader commodity proxies are firm, and natural gas continues to reflect weather-driven tightness.
Macro backdrop: inflation, expectations, and yields
Inflation data remain anchored at recent levels, with the latest available CPI reading (December 2025) at 326.03 and core CPI at 331.86. Forward-looking inflation expectations continue to sit in a narrow band: 1-year at approximately 2.60%, 5-year around 2.33%, 10-year at 2.32%, and 30-year near 2.45%. Taken together, these expectations suggest investors still see medium- and long-term inflation near the Federal Reserve’s target range, despite tariff-related headlines and signs of goods price pressures per company commentary.
Treasury yields reflect a curve that is still relatively elevated at the long end: the 5-year sits near 3.82%, the 10-year at 4.24%, and the 30-year at 4.83%. Recent reporting noted Tuesday was the worst day for Treasurys in roughly six months as the market repriced tariff risk. The combination of high long-end rates and steady inflation expectations implies a risk premium for policy uncertainty layered onto growth and supply dynamics. This morning’s small bounce in duration ETFs suggests some dip-buying or short-covering after the prior day’s move, but levels remain sensitive to the tariff-news cycle and to headlines out of Davos.
Equities and sectors
Major equity proxies are firming at the open following Tuesday’s risk-off session. SPY’s early print near 679.38 compares to a prior close of 677.58. QQQ at 609.07 is modestly above 608.06, and the Dow proxy DIA at 485.78 is similarly a touch higher than 484.88. Small caps, represented by IWM, have a slightly stronger early tone at 264.54 versus 262.58, consistent with some recent narratives around small-cap resilience, though yesterday’s slump reminded investors that macro shocks can overwhelm factor trends in the short run.
Within sectors, the data provided show:
- Technology (XLK) last near 142.58, modestly above its previous close of 141.84, indicating a tentative stabilization after pressure tied to macro and policy risks. Several articles debated how tariff escalation could weigh on Big Tech and its supply chains, though there were also supportive notes: an analyst argued Oracle’s long-term opportunity may be underappreciated, while others saw less immediate threat to Google and Meta from new AI ad competition.
- Financials (XLF) last around 53.36 versus 53.20 yesterday, tracking broader risk appetite and the modest lift in equities. The sector remains rate-sensitive; higher long-end yields can support net interest margins for some bank models but may also tighten financial conditions for borrowers.
- Energy (XLE) shows early firmness at 43.26 versus 42.96, consistent with the bid in broad commodities and the rise in USO and DBC. A sustained move here would likely need ongoing support from crude fundamentals and risk premia.
- Health Care (XLV) is fractionally softer at 155.31 compared to 155.40. News flow is constructive for selected pharma names—articles highlighted J&J’s outlook for $100 billion in revenue next year—but the ETF-level print reflects a very slight downtick at the open.
Beyond the ETFs, notable corporate headlines provide context for stock selection beneath the surface. Reporting flagged Berkshire Hathaway’s preparation to exit its sizable Kraft Heinz stake, an effort to move beyond a legacy deal. In media, Netflix amended its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery assets to an all-cash offer, signaling confidence in balance sheet flexibility and strategy execution even amid a choppy market tape. Semiconductor sentiment remains a swing factor: one piece cited strong pricing trends supporting memory (Micron), and another pointed to improving views on Intel’s manufacturing competitiveness. On the consumer side, Amazon’s CEO warned that earlier inventory buffers against tariffs are fading, with price pressures “creeping” into the marketplace, a point that dovetails with worries about tariff-related pass-through to consumers.
Bonds
Bond ETF pricing is showing modest recovery after Tuesday’s rout discussed in multiple articles. TLT last trades near 86.77 versus a previous close of 86.65; IEF at 95.64 versus 95.55; SHY around 82.84 versus 82.80. The magnitude is small, but directionally it reflects some stabilization. With the 10-year yield at 4.24% and the 30-year at 4.83% as of the recent print, the term premium question remains front and center. Policy uncertainty—particularly around trade and the legal durability of proposed tariffs—will likely drive near-term rate volatility more than fundamental updates alone. The curve composition suggests investors continue to demand compensation for long-horizon risks, even as inflation expectations look contained.
Commodities
Haven demand for precious metals persists. GLD trades near 447.05, well above the prior 437.23 close, aligning with reporting that gold set fresh records amid “Sell America” positioning. SLV at 85.76 is also above its prior 85.39 close. The drivers are a mix of policy uncertainty, rate volatility, and portfolio hedging needs. In industrials and energy, the tone is firm: USO around 72.85 is up from 71.86, and the diversified commodities proxy DBC sits near 23.78 versus 23.48. Natural gas stands out: UNG at 13.60 compares to 12.37 yesterday, consistent with reporting that futures jumped on expectations for a severe cold stretch in the U.S. Northeast. The move underscores how weather risk can reassert itself quickly after periods of subdued volatility in gas.
FX and crypto
In foreign exchange, the euro-dollar pair (EURUSD) is marked around 1.1721 this morning. Articles noted a weaker U.S. dollar on Tuesday amid tariff-driven risk sentiment, but today’s mark is the data point at hand. For now, FX appears to be taking cues from the policy path and market risk appetite, rather than from shifts in inflation expectations.
Crypto is mixed-to-firm within today’s early range. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marked near 89,567, with a daily range so far of roughly 88,090 to 90,031 and an open near 89,335. Ethereum (ETHUSD) is marked near 2,976, within a 2,899 to 3,000 early range and an open near 2,975. While macro headlines occasionally spill into crypto via the liquidity and risk channels, today’s action looks largely range-bound into the open.
Notable movers and themes from recent coverage
- Policy risk: Multiple items emphasized the return of a “Sell America” trade—dollar and Treasury weakness alongside strength in precious metals—following a new tariff threat against European allies tied to Greenland. Another report indicated the EU is discussing potential retaliation, intensifying two-way risk.
- Bonds: A MarketWatch piece highlighted the worst single-day Treasury performance in months. This morning’s slight bounce in TLT, IEF, and SHY hints at stabilization, but not resolution.
- Metals: Several sources pointed to fresh records for gold and silver. Today’s GLD and SLV prints corroborate continued haven demand.
- Technology and AI: Coverage framed potential pressure on Big Tech from geopolitics and tariffs, while other pieces argued select long-term opportunities (e.g., Oracle) remain intact and that incumbent ad platforms face little immediate threat from new entrants.
- Consumer pricing: Amazon’s CEO detailed how tariffs are beginning to creep into prices as earlier inventory buffers run down, reinforcing the importance of monitoring pass-through to headline and core inflation.
- Corporate actions and earnings: Berkshire’s potential exit of Kraft Heinz, Netflix’s all-cash adjustment to its Warner Bros. bid, upbeat semiconductor commentary around Micron and Intel, strong travel demand supporting United Airlines, and J&J’s revenue outlook collectively illustrate a market where idiosyncratic stories are cutting through the macro noise.
Outlook
Into the rest of the week, the market’s focus should remain on tariff-related developments, any indications of EU response, and court-related timelines that could shape the policy pathway for trade actions. Earnings from bellwethers continue to matter for micro confirmation of macro narratives—corporate pricing power, inventory health, and capex intentions are key watchpoints. On the macro side, the interplay between long-end yields and risk assets remains central: sustained 10-year yields above 4% alongside firm precious metals would signal persisting demand for hedges against policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, natural gas volatility bears watching given winter conditions. For FX, EURUSD levels will help confirm whether Tuesday’s dollar weakness was a one-off shock or the start of a broader trend.
Near-term, positioning looks more tactical than thematic: modest equity strength at the open, a small bid to bonds after yesterday’s drop, firm commodities led by gold, and range-bound crypto. The balance of risks still skews to headlines, suggesting an uneven trading tape where intraday moves can diverge across assets. For investors, that argues for disciplined risk management, selectivity in cyclicals versus defensives, and awareness that policy news can quickly reprice curves, FX, and commodities in tandem.
Opening overview
U.S. equities opened with a cautiously constructive tone following the prior session’s broad selloff tied to renewed tariff risks between the U.S. and Europe. The major index ETFs show modest early gains: SPY last traded near 679.38 versus a previous close of 677.58, QQQ near 609.07 versus 608.06, DIA at 485.78 versus 484.88, and IWM at 264.54 versus 262.58. The early firmness suggests investors are probing for stabilization while still digesting a heavy mix of macro headlines.
On the macro front, long-dated Treasury yields remain elevated. As of the latest available readings, the 10-year sits at 4.24% and the 30-year at 4.83%, with the front end lower (2-year at 3.59%). Articles highlighted a sharp Treasury selloff on Tuesday on tariff concerns, and this morning’s early upticks in long-duration bond ETFs point to a tentative bid for duration after that stress. In commodities, haven demand is still present: GLD is well above yesterday’s close, while SLV also edges higher. Energy and broader commodity proxies are firm, and natural gas continues to reflect weather-driven tightness.
Macro backdrop: inflation, expectations, and yields
Inflation data remain anchored at recent levels, with the latest available CPI reading (December 2025) at 326.03 and core CPI at 331.86. Forward-looking inflation expectations continue to sit in a narrow band: 1-year at approximately 2.60%, 5-year around 2.33%, 10-year at 2.32%, and 30-year near 2.45%. Taken together, these expectations suggest investors still see medium- and long-term inflation near the Federal Reserve’s target range, despite tariff-related headlines and signs of goods price pressures per company commentary.
Treasury yields reflect a curve that is still relatively elevated at the long end: the 5-year sits near 3.82%, the 10-year at 4.24%, and the 30-year at 4.83%. Recent reporting noted Tuesday was the worst day for Treasurys in roughly six months as the market repriced tariff risk. The combination of high long-end rates and steady inflation expectations implies a risk premium for policy uncertainty layered onto growth and supply dynamics. This morning’s small bounce in duration ETFs suggests some dip-buying or short-covering after the prior day’s move, but levels remain sensitive to the tariff-news cycle and to headlines out of Davos.
Equities and sectors
Major equity proxies are firming at the open following Tuesday’s risk-off session. SPY’s early print near 679.38 compares to a prior close of 677.58. QQQ at 609.07 is modestly above 608.06, and the Dow proxy DIA at 485.78 is similarly a touch higher than 484.88. Small caps, represented by IWM, have a slightly stronger early tone at 264.54 versus 262.58, consistent with some recent narratives around small-cap resilience, though yesterday’s slump reminded investors that macro shocks can overwhelm factor trends in the short run.
Within sectors, the data provided show:
- Technology (XLK) last near 142.58, modestly above its previous close of 141.84, indicating a tentative stabilization after pressure tied to macro and policy risks. Several articles debated how tariff escalation could weigh on Big Tech and its supply chains, though there were also supportive notes: an analyst argued Oracle’s long-term opportunity may be underappreciated, while others saw less immediate threat to Google and Meta from new AI ad competition.
- Financials (XLF) last around 53.36 versus 53.20 yesterday, tracking broader risk appetite and the modest lift in equities. The sector remains rate-sensitive; higher long-end yields can support net interest margins for some bank models but may also tighten financial conditions for borrowers.
- Energy (XLE) shows early firmness at 43.26 versus 42.96, consistent with the bid in broad commodities and the rise in USO and DBC. A sustained move here would likely need ongoing support from crude fundamentals and risk premia.
- Health Care (XLV) is fractionally softer at 155.31 compared to 155.40. News flow is constructive for selected pharma names—articles highlighted J&J’s outlook for $100 billion in revenue next year—but the ETF-level print reflects a very slight downtick at the open.
Beyond the ETFs, notable corporate headlines provide context for stock selection beneath the surface. Reporting flagged Berkshire Hathaway’s preparation to exit its sizable Kraft Heinz stake, an effort to move beyond a legacy deal. In media, Netflix amended its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery assets to an all-cash offer, signaling confidence in balance sheet flexibility and strategy execution even amid a choppy market tape. Semiconductor sentiment remains a swing factor: one piece cited strong pricing trends supporting memory (Micron), and another pointed to improving views on Intel’s manufacturing competitiveness. On the consumer side, Amazon’s CEO warned that earlier inventory buffers against tariffs are fading, with price pressures “creeping” into the marketplace, a point that dovetails with worries about tariff-related pass-through to consumers.
Bonds
Bond ETF pricing is showing modest recovery after Tuesday’s rout discussed in multiple articles. TLT last trades near 86.77 versus a previous close of 86.65; IEF at 95.64 versus 95.55; SHY around 82.84 versus 82.80. The magnitude is small, but directionally it reflects some stabilization. With the 10-year yield at 4.24% and the 30-year at 4.83% as of the recent print, the term premium question remains front and center. Policy uncertainty—particularly around trade and the legal durability of proposed tariffs—will likely drive near-term rate volatility more than fundamental updates alone. The curve composition suggests investors continue to demand compensation for long-horizon risks, even as inflation expectations look contained.
Commodities
Haven demand for precious metals persists. GLD trades near 447.05, well above the prior 437.23 close, aligning with reporting that gold set fresh records amid “Sell America” positioning. SLV at 85.76 is also above its prior 85.39 close. The drivers are a mix of policy uncertainty, rate volatility, and portfolio hedging needs. In industrials and energy, the tone is firm: USO around 72.85 is up from 71.86, and the diversified commodities proxy DBC sits near 23.78 versus 23.48. Natural gas stands out: UNG at 13.60 compares to 12.37 yesterday, consistent with reporting that futures jumped on expectations for a severe cold stretch in the U.S. Northeast. The move underscores how weather risk can reassert itself quickly after periods of subdued volatility in gas.
FX and crypto
In foreign exchange, the euro-dollar pair (EURUSD) is marked around 1.1721 this morning. Articles noted a weaker U.S. dollar on Tuesday amid tariff-driven risk sentiment, but today’s mark is the data point at hand. For now, FX appears to be taking cues from the policy path and market risk appetite, rather than from shifts in inflation expectations.
Crypto is mixed-to-firm within today’s early range. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marked near 89,567, with a daily range so far of roughly 88,090 to 90,031 and an open near 89,335. Ethereum (ETHUSD) is marked near 2,976, within a 2,899 to 3,000 early range and an open near 2,975. While macro headlines occasionally spill into crypto via the liquidity and risk channels, today’s action looks largely range-bound into the open.
Notable movers and themes from recent coverage
- Policy risk: Multiple items emphasized the return of a “Sell America” trade—dollar and Treasury weakness alongside strength in precious metals—following a new tariff threat against European allies tied to Greenland. Another report indicated the EU is discussing potential retaliation, intensifying two-way risk.
- Bonds: A MarketWatch piece highlighted the worst single-day Treasury performance in months. This morning’s slight bounce in TLT, IEF, and SHY hints at stabilization, but not resolution.
- Metals: Several sources pointed to fresh records for gold and silver. Today’s GLD and SLV prints corroborate continued haven demand.
- Technology and AI: Coverage framed potential pressure on Big Tech from geopolitics and tariffs, while other pieces argued select long-term opportunities (e.g., Oracle) remain intact and that incumbent ad platforms face little immediate threat from new entrants.
- Consumer pricing: Amazon’s CEO detailed how tariffs are beginning to creep into prices as earlier inventory buffers run down, reinforcing the importance of monitoring pass-through to headline and core inflation.
- Corporate actions and earnings: Berkshire’s potential exit of Kraft Heinz, Netflix’s all-cash adjustment to its Warner Bros. bid, upbeat semiconductor commentary around Micron and Intel, strong travel demand supporting United Airlines, and J&J’s revenue outlook collectively illustrate a market where idiosyncratic stories are cutting through the macro noise.
Outlook
Into the rest of the week, the market’s focus should remain on tariff-related developments, any indications of EU response, and court-related timelines that could shape the policy pathway for trade actions. Earnings from bellwethers continue to matter for micro confirmation of macro narratives—corporate pricing power, inventory health, and capex intentions are key watchpoints. On the macro side, the interplay between long-end yields and risk assets remains central: sustained 10-year yields above 4% alongside firm precious metals would signal persisting demand for hedges against policy uncertainty. Meanwhile, natural gas volatility bears watching given winter conditions. For FX, EURUSD levels will help confirm whether Tuesday’s dollar weakness was a one-off shock or the start of a broader trend.
Near-term, positioning looks more tactical than thematic: modest equity strength at the open, a small bid to bonds after yesterday’s drop, firm commodities led by gold, and range-bound crypto. The balance of risks still skews to headlines, suggesting an uneven trading tape where intraday moves can diverge across assets. For investors, that argues for disciplined risk management, selectivity in cyclicals versus defensives, and awareness that policy news can quickly reprice curves, FX, and commodities in tandem.