State of Market: Close 12/03/25
Cyclicals lead late-day advance as banks and small caps outperform; bonds firm, energy lags despite oil uptick
Equities grind higher into the close with the Dow and Russell out front. Yields remain contained around 4.09% on the 10-year, while services data and tariff headlines frame the macro. Oil and natural gas rise; precious metals ease. Euro firms modestly; Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Close
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Overview
U.S. stocks finished higher into the close, with cyclical leadership and a notable bid in financials and small caps. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) settled at 683.81, up 0.33% versus its previous close of 681.53. Mega-cap tech lagged the cyclicals but still advanced, as the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) closed at 623.53, up 0.25%. The Dow proxy (DIA) outperformed, rising 0.88% to 479.43, aided by strength in industrial bellwethers, while small caps led broadly with the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) up 1.82% to 249.64.
Under the surface, sector dynamics were consistent with a risk-on tilt: Financials outperformed, technology edged up, health care added to recent gains, and energy slipped despite a firmer tape in crude. In fixed income, Treasuries advanced across the curve, consistent with contained yields and a macro backdrop of cooling labor momentum and ongoing policy uncertainty around tariffs and global central banks.
Macro backdrop: growth steady, labor softer, policy watch
Treasury yields remain anchored near recent ranges. On the latest available print, the 10‑year yield sits at 4.09%, the 5‑year at 3.67%, the 2‑year at 3.54%, and the 30‑year at 4.74%. The curve remains modestly positive from 2s to 10s, signaling no acute stress in growth expectations, while the long end’s higher yield reflects ongoing term premium and supply considerations. Headline CPI last read 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542 (September reference), and market-based inflation expectations are contained: approximately 2.35% over five years and 2.27% over ten, with the 5y5y forward at 2.18% (data provided).
Fresh economic signals today skewed mixed. According to ADP, private employers shed jobs in November for the third time in four months, pointing to a broadening slowdown in hiring that could nudge unemployment higher and weigh on consumption. Conversely, the ISM reported the large services sector grew for a sixth straight month in November while inflation pressures eased, though businesses cited “tariff uncertainty” as a drag on sales and hiring. The policy backdrop around tariffs is fluid: the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump-era country-specific tariffs is looming, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said officials have contingency plans to maintain levies via other avenues should the ruling go against the administration. Funding-market plumbing also bears watching; signs of tighter conditions in short-term markets suggest the Fed may need to act if stress builds. Abroad, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda flagged the prospect of a rate hike this month, a shift that could tighten global financial conditions at the margin by drawing capital toward Japan and firming the yen—another variable for cross-asset flows.
Equities and sectors
Broad indices advanced, led by cyclicals:
- SPY +0.33% to 683.81.
- QQQ +0.25% to 623.53.
- DIA +0.88% to 479.43.
- IWM +1.82% to 249.64.
Financials led sector performance. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) gained 1.33% to 53.54 from 52.84. The group benefited from stable-to-lower rate volatility, a supportive yield curve profile for net-interest margins, and confidence in credit quality as soft-landing odds persist. Media commentary also reflected profit-taking into strength by some investors in bank stocks trading near highs, consistent with the day’s outperformance.
Technology participated but lagged the high-beta small-cap cohort. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) edged up 0.24% to 289.98. Tech headlines were mixed. Microsoft’s stock drew scrutiny on reports of AI sales quota adjustments; one analyst framed any weakness as a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, semis remained in focus. Marvell Technology rallied after an upbeat forecast and unveiled an up to $5.5 billion deal for Celestial AI to augment its data infrastructure positioning—an aggressive move to deepen its networking and optical interconnect stack. Elsewhere in AI infrastructure, Amazon Web Services highlighted new in-house AI chips and deeper ties with Nvidia; several analysts emphasized that cloud capacity ramp is the dominant driver of monetization. Nvidia appeared in multiple commentaries—from valuation support to product partnerships—with a supportive tone for long-run AI demand.
Health care added to gains. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) rose 0.47% to 155.09. Within therapeutics, Bristol Myers Squibb rallied as investors maintained high hopes for Cobenfy in Alzheimer’s despite a delayed late-stage readout. A separate FDA-related memo discussing vaccine safety questions weighed on vaccine makers earlier in the week, reminding investors of regulatory headline risk within the group. On obesity, commentary around Eli Lilly’s Zepbound price actions suggested a volume-over-price strategy that could sustain category growth.
Energy diverged from commodities. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) slipped 0.31% to 87.61 versus 87.88 previously, even as oil proxies advanced. Market discussion highlighted that OPEC+ has been unwinding cuts and boosting supply more quickly than expected this year, contributing to a looser balance and capping upside. With natural gas strengthening and broader commodities firm, the underperformance likely reflects equity-specific positioning and skepticism about the durability of crude’s bounce.
At the single-stock level, industrials stood out. Boeing led today’s advance, with multiple reports highlighting CFO guidance that 737 and 787 deliveries should rise next year and that 2026 cash flow prospects are improving. That commentary helped power the Dow’s outperformance. In consumer, Macy’s posted surprise sales growth and a profit but shares pulled back after a strong run, while Dollar Tree beat sales expectations as shoppers gravitated to bargains. Airlines were mixed: Delta Air Lines trimmed its fourth-quarter profit outlook citing shutdown-related cancellations but said demand into 2026 remains healthy; markets appeared relieved the impact was limited.
Media and streaming were active. Headlines pointed to Netflix and Paramount as leading bidders for Warner Bros. Discovery; investors were cautious, with reports of both suitors’ shares trading lower on cash-heavy bid details. The outcome could reshape content libraries and negotiating leverage across the media landscape, but for now, equity reaction skews defensive toward buyers and uncertain for the target.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs finished higher across the curve. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) gained 0.27% to 89.05 from 88.81, the iShares 7–10 Year (IEF) rose 0.21% to 96.97 from 96.77, and the iShares 1–3 Year (SHY) added 0.07% to 82.87 from 82.81. The advance is consistent with contained yields and market-based inflation expectations near 2%–2.5% over medium-term horizons. Macro headlines around softer private payrolls, steady services activity, and potential funding market frictions likely reinforced a bid for duration without prompting a wholesale re-pricing of the path of policy rates.
Commodities
Crude and natural gas strengthened, while precious metals eased. The United States Oil Fund (USO) rose 0.67% to 70.67 and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) climbed 3.42% to 15.47. The broad commodities proxy (DBC) gained 0.46% to 23.13. By contrast, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) slipped 0.10% to 386.87 and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) dipped 0.11% to 53.07. Recent commentary has noted that gold, silver, and copper have been printing record or near-record levels together for the first time in decades, supported by a cocktail of real-rate dynamics, central-bank demand, and supply constraints. Today’s small giveback in precious metals looks like routine consolidation against that multi-month backdrop.
FX and crypto
The euro firmed modestly versus the dollar. EURUSD marked 1.1666 late day, up about 0.20% from its open of 1.1642, within a narrow intraday range between 1.1636 and 1.1675. With U.S. yields contained and European growth stabilizing from weak levels, day-to-day moves remain modest.
Crypto performance was mixed. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked around 92,982, down roughly 0.43% from its session open of 93,386, trading within a 91,711–94,014 range. Ethereum (ETHUSD) outperformed, up approximately 2.61% to 3,138 from a 3,058 open and tagging a 3,161 high intraday. Beyond price action, flows and access continue to evolve: Vanguard has begun allowing clients to buy third-party crypto ETFs, and strategic commentary highlighted the geopolitical utility of crypto for some governments. Short-term technicians pointed to potential reversal set-ups earlier in the week; today’s relative strength in ETH versus BTC maintained that theme of rotation within the complex.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- Boeing (BA): Multiple updates emphasized improving 2026 cash flow and higher 737/787 deliveries next year, helping lift industrials and the Dow.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Reports of AI sales quota adjustments pressured the stock earlier, with some analysts viewing weakness as an opportunity.
- Marvell (MRVL): Shares moved higher on an upbeat forecast and the announced acquisition of Celestial AI, bolstering its data infrastructure roadmap.
- Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA): AWS introduced new in-house AI chips alongside deeper Nvidia collaboration; commentary stressed that cloud capacity and customer adoption remain the primary drivers of revenue capture.
- Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): Stock rallied as investors stayed constructive on Cobenfy in Alzheimer’s despite a delayed Phase 3 readout.
- Media M&A: Netflix (NFLX) and Paramount (PARA) were flagged as favored bidders for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), with investors wary of cash-heavy offers.
- Consumers: Dollar Tree (DLTR) outperformed on stronger sales as shoppers traded down; Macy’s (M) gave back a portion of recent gains despite better-than-expected results.
- Airlines: Delta (DAL) trimmed Q4 profit outlook on shutdown-related cancellations but highlighted resilient demand into 2026.
Putting it together
Today’s tape reflected a market that remains willing to add cyclical exposure when yields are contained and earnings visibility improves, particularly in banks and industrials. The combination of softer private payrolls and steady services activity supports the soft-landing narrative, while policy uncertainty—tariffs, potential BOJ normalization, and domestic funding-market plumbing—keeps a lid on multiple expansion. Tech leadership is less monolithic than earlier in the year: while AI infrastructure beneficiaries continue to invest and win orders, dispersion is rising, with stock-specific responses tied to capital intensity, competitive positioning, and near-term monetization proofs.
Outlook
- Data watch: The soft ADP print puts added focus on official labor data and any follow-through in unemployment. Services activity and price subcomponents bear watching for disinflation continuity.
- Policy path: The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and any backup strategies to maintain levies could influence margins, supply chains, and inflation expectations. Any Fed communication around funding-market facilities would be market-relevant.
- Global central banks: Prospects of a BOJ rate hike this month could tighten global financial conditions and affect cross-border flows.
- Earnings/Corporate: Salesforce has an earnings event on deck, with investors focused on AI monetization (Agentforce) and whether results can rebut the notion that “AI is eating software.” Integration updates around Marvell’s Celestial AI deal and ongoing AWS/Nvidia capacity ramps also remain in focus. In media, developments around bids for Warner Bros. Discovery could move buyer and target equities.
Risks
Key near-term risks include: 1) tariff policy uncertainty that could weigh on hiring and capital spending; 2) stress in short-term dollar funding markets that would warrant Fed action; 3) a quicker-than-expected BOJ normalization that tightens global financial conditions; 4) AI-capex intensity compressing free cash flow for large tech platforms; 5) an OPEC+ supply response that keeps crude price rallies in check, complicating energy equity performance; 6) a further slowdown in hiring that undermines consumption; and 7) regulatory and litigation risks in health care and technology.
Market by the numbers
- SPY 683.81 (+0.33% vs. prior close).
- QQQ 623.53 (+0.25%).
- DIA 479.43 (+0.88%).
- IWM 249.64 (+1.82%).
- XLF 53.54 (+1.33%); XLK 289.98 (+0.24%); XLV 155.09 (+0.47%); XLE 87.61 (−0.31%).
- TLT 89.05 (+0.27%); IEF 96.97 (+0.21%); SHY 82.87 (+0.07%).
- GLD 386.87 (−0.10%); SLV 53.07 (−0.11%); USO 70.67 (+0.67%); UNG 15.47 (+3.42%); DBC 23.13 (+0.46%).
- EURUSD 1.1666 intraday mark (range 1.1636–1.1675; +0.20% vs. open).
- BTCUSD ~92,982 (−0.43% vs. open); ETHUSD ~3,138 (+2.61% vs. open).
Overview
U.S. stocks finished higher into the close, with cyclical leadership and a notable bid in financials and small caps. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) settled at 683.81, up 0.33% versus its previous close of 681.53. Mega-cap tech lagged the cyclicals but still advanced, as the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) closed at 623.53, up 0.25%. The Dow proxy (DIA) outperformed, rising 0.88% to 479.43, aided by strength in industrial bellwethers, while small caps led broadly with the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) up 1.82% to 249.64.
Under the surface, sector dynamics were consistent with a risk-on tilt: Financials outperformed, technology edged up, health care added to recent gains, and energy slipped despite a firmer tape in crude. In fixed income, Treasuries advanced across the curve, consistent with contained yields and a macro backdrop of cooling labor momentum and ongoing policy uncertainty around tariffs and global central banks.
Macro backdrop: growth steady, labor softer, policy watch
Treasury yields remain anchored near recent ranges. On the latest available print, the 10‑year yield sits at 4.09%, the 5‑year at 3.67%, the 2‑year at 3.54%, and the 30‑year at 4.74%. The curve remains modestly positive from 2s to 10s, signaling no acute stress in growth expectations, while the long end’s higher yield reflects ongoing term premium and supply considerations. Headline CPI last read 324.368 with core CPI at 330.542 (September reference), and market-based inflation expectations are contained: approximately 2.35% over five years and 2.27% over ten, with the 5y5y forward at 2.18% (data provided).
Fresh economic signals today skewed mixed. According to ADP, private employers shed jobs in November for the third time in four months, pointing to a broadening slowdown in hiring that could nudge unemployment higher and weigh on consumption. Conversely, the ISM reported the large services sector grew for a sixth straight month in November while inflation pressures eased, though businesses cited “tariff uncertainty” as a drag on sales and hiring. The policy backdrop around tariffs is fluid: the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump-era country-specific tariffs is looming, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said officials have contingency plans to maintain levies via other avenues should the ruling go against the administration. Funding-market plumbing also bears watching; signs of tighter conditions in short-term markets suggest the Fed may need to act if stress builds. Abroad, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda flagged the prospect of a rate hike this month, a shift that could tighten global financial conditions at the margin by drawing capital toward Japan and firming the yen—another variable for cross-asset flows.
Equities and sectors
Broad indices advanced, led by cyclicals:
- SPY +0.33% to 683.81.
- QQQ +0.25% to 623.53.
- DIA +0.88% to 479.43.
- IWM +1.82% to 249.64.
Financials led sector performance. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) gained 1.33% to 53.54 from 52.84. The group benefited from stable-to-lower rate volatility, a supportive yield curve profile for net-interest margins, and confidence in credit quality as soft-landing odds persist. Media commentary also reflected profit-taking into strength by some investors in bank stocks trading near highs, consistent with the day’s outperformance.
Technology participated but lagged the high-beta small-cap cohort. The Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK) edged up 0.24% to 289.98. Tech headlines were mixed. Microsoft’s stock drew scrutiny on reports of AI sales quota adjustments; one analyst framed any weakness as a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, semis remained in focus. Marvell Technology rallied after an upbeat forecast and unveiled an up to $5.5 billion deal for Celestial AI to augment its data infrastructure positioning—an aggressive move to deepen its networking and optical interconnect stack. Elsewhere in AI infrastructure, Amazon Web Services highlighted new in-house AI chips and deeper ties with Nvidia; several analysts emphasized that cloud capacity ramp is the dominant driver of monetization. Nvidia appeared in multiple commentaries—from valuation support to product partnerships—with a supportive tone for long-run AI demand.
Health care added to gains. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) rose 0.47% to 155.09. Within therapeutics, Bristol Myers Squibb rallied as investors maintained high hopes for Cobenfy in Alzheimer’s despite a delayed late-stage readout. A separate FDA-related memo discussing vaccine safety questions weighed on vaccine makers earlier in the week, reminding investors of regulatory headline risk within the group. On obesity, commentary around Eli Lilly’s Zepbound price actions suggested a volume-over-price strategy that could sustain category growth.
Energy diverged from commodities. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) slipped 0.31% to 87.61 versus 87.88 previously, even as oil proxies advanced. Market discussion highlighted that OPEC+ has been unwinding cuts and boosting supply more quickly than expected this year, contributing to a looser balance and capping upside. With natural gas strengthening and broader commodities firm, the underperformance likely reflects equity-specific positioning and skepticism about the durability of crude’s bounce.
At the single-stock level, industrials stood out. Boeing led today’s advance, with multiple reports highlighting CFO guidance that 737 and 787 deliveries should rise next year and that 2026 cash flow prospects are improving. That commentary helped power the Dow’s outperformance. In consumer, Macy’s posted surprise sales growth and a profit but shares pulled back after a strong run, while Dollar Tree beat sales expectations as shoppers gravitated to bargains. Airlines were mixed: Delta Air Lines trimmed its fourth-quarter profit outlook citing shutdown-related cancellations but said demand into 2026 remains healthy; markets appeared relieved the impact was limited.
Media and streaming were active. Headlines pointed to Netflix and Paramount as leading bidders for Warner Bros. Discovery; investors were cautious, with reports of both suitors’ shares trading lower on cash-heavy bid details. The outcome could reshape content libraries and negotiating leverage across the media landscape, but for now, equity reaction skews defensive toward buyers and uncertain for the target.
Bonds
Treasury ETFs finished higher across the curve. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) gained 0.27% to 89.05 from 88.81, the iShares 7–10 Year (IEF) rose 0.21% to 96.97 from 96.77, and the iShares 1–3 Year (SHY) added 0.07% to 82.87 from 82.81. The advance is consistent with contained yields and market-based inflation expectations near 2%–2.5% over medium-term horizons. Macro headlines around softer private payrolls, steady services activity, and potential funding market frictions likely reinforced a bid for duration without prompting a wholesale re-pricing of the path of policy rates.
Commodities
Crude and natural gas strengthened, while precious metals eased. The United States Oil Fund (USO) rose 0.67% to 70.67 and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) climbed 3.42% to 15.47. The broad commodities proxy (DBC) gained 0.46% to 23.13. By contrast, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) slipped 0.10% to 386.87 and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) dipped 0.11% to 53.07. Recent commentary has noted that gold, silver, and copper have been printing record or near-record levels together for the first time in decades, supported by a cocktail of real-rate dynamics, central-bank demand, and supply constraints. Today’s small giveback in precious metals looks like routine consolidation against that multi-month backdrop.
FX and crypto
The euro firmed modestly versus the dollar. EURUSD marked 1.1666 late day, up about 0.20% from its open of 1.1642, within a narrow intraday range between 1.1636 and 1.1675. With U.S. yields contained and European growth stabilizing from weak levels, day-to-day moves remain modest.
Crypto performance was mixed. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marked around 92,982, down roughly 0.43% from its session open of 93,386, trading within a 91,711–94,014 range. Ethereum (ETHUSD) outperformed, up approximately 2.61% to 3,138 from a 3,058 open and tagging a 3,161 high intraday. Beyond price action, flows and access continue to evolve: Vanguard has begun allowing clients to buy third-party crypto ETFs, and strategic commentary highlighted the geopolitical utility of crypto for some governments. Short-term technicians pointed to potential reversal set-ups earlier in the week; today’s relative strength in ETH versus BTC maintained that theme of rotation within the complex.
Notable company and thematic headlines
- Boeing (BA): Multiple updates emphasized improving 2026 cash flow and higher 737/787 deliveries next year, helping lift industrials and the Dow.
- Microsoft (MSFT): Reports of AI sales quota adjustments pressured the stock earlier, with some analysts viewing weakness as an opportunity.
- Marvell (MRVL): Shares moved higher on an upbeat forecast and the announced acquisition of Celestial AI, bolstering its data infrastructure roadmap.
- Amazon (AMZN) and Nvidia (NVDA): AWS introduced new in-house AI chips alongside deeper Nvidia collaboration; commentary stressed that cloud capacity and customer adoption remain the primary drivers of revenue capture.
- Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): Stock rallied as investors stayed constructive on Cobenfy in Alzheimer’s despite a delayed Phase 3 readout.
- Media M&A: Netflix (NFLX) and Paramount (PARA) were flagged as favored bidders for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), with investors wary of cash-heavy offers.
- Consumers: Dollar Tree (DLTR) outperformed on stronger sales as shoppers traded down; Macy’s (M) gave back a portion of recent gains despite better-than-expected results.
- Airlines: Delta (DAL) trimmed Q4 profit outlook on shutdown-related cancellations but highlighted resilient demand into 2026.
Putting it together
Today’s tape reflected a market that remains willing to add cyclical exposure when yields are contained and earnings visibility improves, particularly in banks and industrials. The combination of softer private payrolls and steady services activity supports the soft-landing narrative, while policy uncertainty—tariffs, potential BOJ normalization, and domestic funding-market plumbing—keeps a lid on multiple expansion. Tech leadership is less monolithic than earlier in the year: while AI infrastructure beneficiaries continue to invest and win orders, dispersion is rising, with stock-specific responses tied to capital intensity, competitive positioning, and near-term monetization proofs.
Outlook
- Data watch: The soft ADP print puts added focus on official labor data and any follow-through in unemployment. Services activity and price subcomponents bear watching for disinflation continuity.
- Policy path: The Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and any backup strategies to maintain levies could influence margins, supply chains, and inflation expectations. Any Fed communication around funding-market facilities would be market-relevant.
- Global central banks: Prospects of a BOJ rate hike this month could tighten global financial conditions and affect cross-border flows.
- Earnings/Corporate: Salesforce has an earnings event on deck, with investors focused on AI monetization (Agentforce) and whether results can rebut the notion that “AI is eating software.” Integration updates around Marvell’s Celestial AI deal and ongoing AWS/Nvidia capacity ramps also remain in focus. In media, developments around bids for Warner Bros. Discovery could move buyer and target equities.
Risks
Key near-term risks include: 1) tariff policy uncertainty that could weigh on hiring and capital spending; 2) stress in short-term dollar funding markets that would warrant Fed action; 3) a quicker-than-expected BOJ normalization that tightens global financial conditions; 4) AI-capex intensity compressing free cash flow for large tech platforms; 5) an OPEC+ supply response that keeps crude price rallies in check, complicating energy equity performance; 6) a further slowdown in hiring that undermines consumption; and 7) regulatory and litigation risks in health care and technology.
Market by the numbers
- SPY 683.81 (+0.33% vs. prior close).
- QQQ 623.53 (+0.25%).
- DIA 479.43 (+0.88%).
- IWM 249.64 (+1.82%).
- XLF 53.54 (+1.33%); XLK 289.98 (+0.24%); XLV 155.09 (+0.47%); XLE 87.61 (−0.31%).
- TLT 89.05 (+0.27%); IEF 96.97 (+0.21%); SHY 82.87 (+0.07%).
- GLD 386.87 (−0.10%); SLV 53.07 (−0.11%); USO 70.67 (+0.67%); UNG 15.47 (+3.42%); DBC 23.13 (+0.46%).
- EURUSD 1.1666 intraday mark (range 1.1636–1.1675; +0.20% vs. open).
- BTCUSD ~92,982 (−0.43% vs. open); ETHUSD ~3,138 (+2.61% vs. open).