State of Market: Open 01/23/26
Commodities lead at the open as yields steady; equities ease after two-day rebound
Gold, silver, oil and gas extend gains; long-duration Treasurys edge higher while mega-cap tech narratives stay in focus amid AI and China headlines
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Overview
U.S. markets are opening on a softer note Friday, consolidating a two-day rebound while commodities extend their advance and Treasury prices firm. At 9:30 a.m. ET, broad equity ETFs show modest declines: SPY trades at 687.99 versus a prior close of 688.98 (about -0.14%), QQQ at 619.58 versus 620.76 (-0.19%), DIA at 491.71 versus 493.69 (-0.40%), and IWM at 268.87 versus 269.79 (-0.34%). The tone is risk-neutral to slightly cautious despite constructive macro inputs from steadier yields and inflation expectations. Commodity strength is the standout at the open, with gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, and a diversified commodity basket all higher versus Thursday’s close.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain anchored compared with earlier in the week. As of the latest available readings, the 2-year is 3.60%, the 5-year 3.83%, the 10-year 4.26%, and the 30-year 4.87%. The curve remains positively sloped from 2s to 10s and further out to 30s, consistent with a market that has repriced for slower inflation but still-solid term premia. The modest bid in duration evident at the open—reflected in small gains for IEF and TLT—aligns with the idea of incremental relief on rate-cut timing uncertainty.
On inflation, the latest CPI index levels available in this payload are for December 2025 (headline 326.03; core 331.86). Year-over-year rates are not provided here. However, articles in the past 24 hours flag the Fed’s preferred gauge (PCE) running at 2.8% in November, and commentary suggests the central bank remains in no rush to ease again. Inflation expectations in the model set provided are subdued: one-year at about 2.60%, five-year near 2.33%, and ten-year near 2.32%. The combination—anchored medium/long-term expectations and a 10-year yield around 4.26%—is broadly supportive of equity valuations and duration assets so long as growth holds and near-term inflation doesn’t reaccelerate.
Equities and sectors
Major index ETFs are fractionally lower at the open after broad gains on Thursday across technology, small caps, and longer-duration Treasurys (as highlighted in reporting). Today’s slight giveback appears rotational rather than risk-off. Sector proxies show a defensive tilt:
- Financials (XLF 53.44 vs 53.81) down about 0.68%.
- Technology (XLK 144.48 vs 144.88) down roughly 0.28%.
- Utilities (XLU, represented by the symbol field in the utility-sector quote, 42.68 vs 42.71) marginally lower, about 0.07%.
- Health Care (XLV 158.01 vs 158.29) off around 0.18%.
Notably, the technology complex remains the headline driver. Articles highlight several AI- and semiconductor-linked narratives: an analyst view that Micron’s profits could quadruple by 2027; AMD’s notable winning streak tied to data center CPU momentum; and Intel’s shares rallying into earnings as investors price progress in AI and manufacturing. There is also a fresh report suggesting Chinese authorities have greenlit purchases of Nvidia chips by domestic titans, a potential easing in a previously fraught U.S.-China semi channel. While we do not have single-name price quotes in this payload, these items collectively help underpin sentiment for XLK and QQQ, even as both open modestly lower after Thursday’s strength.
Consumer-related headlines are more mixed. Amazon is reportedly preparing a second wave of job cuts, which can signal ongoing efficiency drives but also pockets of slower demand or strategic reprioritization. TikTok’s formation of a U.S. joint venture and CEO appointment could reduce a regulatory overhang in social video, with potential second-order effects for advertising ecosystems at large. Separately, reports of Under Armour investigating a possible data breach present a negative idiosyncratic driver for that brand.
Auto and industrial commentary is two-sided. Analysis notes Ford and GM are executing well, yet remain exposed to potential memory chip shortages and higher commodity inputs—both relevant with oil, metals, and gas moving up. On the aerospace side, GE’s revenue growth trajectory is under scrutiny, with shares reportedly slipping after earnings despite beats on several metrics.
Bonds
Treasuries are a touch firmer. The long-duration TLT trades at 87.83 versus 87.69 (+0.16%). Intermediate duration is also up slightly: IEF at 95.83 versus 95.79 (+0.04%) and SHY at 82.83 versus 82.81 (+0.02%). The mild bid to duration matches the stability in benchmark yields and aligns with recent commentary that investors should widen the aperture beyond headline yield levels to broader dynamics—volatility, term premia, and curves—especially with policy path uncertainty still elevated.
Commodities
Commodities are leading early trade. Gold (GLD 454.26 vs 451.79) is up roughly 0.55% as buy-side narratives remain supportive. Recent reports cite RBC’s commodities team suggesting paths to higher prices amid “unavoidable uncertainty,” and Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end target to $5,400 on intensifying private and central-bank demand. While gold pulled back midweek alongside a risk rally, the continued bid this morning underscores its role as both a macro hedge and a beneficiary of incremental reserve diversification.
Silver (SLV 90.20 vs 87.13) is up about 3.5%, outpacing gold. That’s particularly notable in light of contrarian commentary arguing that silver may have topped, and Bloomberg’s observation of strong Chinese exports—data points that could constrain overly bullish silver narratives. For now, price action speaks to pro-cyclical as well as monetary hedging demand.
Energy is firm: crude via USO at 73.76 versus 71.82 (+2.7%) and natural gas via UNG at 14.12 versus 13.43 (+5.1%). Goldman Sachs characterizes the recent nat-gas spike as an overshoot amid a deep freeze, implying normalization risk when weather abates. Nevertheless, the front-end tightening in gas markets, combined with broader commodity strength (DBC 24.07 vs 23.74, +1.4%), suggests investors are recalibrating inflation and growth sensitivities to energy and raw materials.
FX and crypto
FX moves are subdued in the data provided: EURUSD marks near 1.1743. Without a prior-day cross rate here, the directional read is limited, but the level is consistent with a modestly softer dollar backdrop when U.S. yields are steady to lower and geopolitical anxiety cools from midweek highs.
Crypto is softer. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks 89,564 with an intraday range showing a low near 88,746 and high around 89,885; versus today’s open price in this payload (approximately 89,866), that’s modestly lower. Recent coverage points to Bitcoin slipping below $90,000 as larger holders distribute and haven flows seek other assets. Ether (ETHUSD) tracks similarly, marking 2,935 versus an open near 2,975. The BitGo IPO pricing above range at a roughly $2.1 billion valuation adds a contrasting corporate milestone amid a murkier token price backdrop.
Notable company and policy headlines
- Semiconductors/AI: Reports suggest China has greenlit purchases of Nvidia chips by companies like Alibaba, potentially loosening a constraint on high-end AI compute supply in China. Analysts also highlight Micron’s earnings power under a tight memory market through 2027, while AMD and Intel capture attention for data center CPU momentum and AI manufacturing roadmaps.
- Platforms and media: TikTok’s U.S. joint venture and a newly named CEO aim to end a yearslong saga about continued U.S. operations. Separately, Netflix’s stock pressure persists as investors digest 2026 guidance and the all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s assets; Paramount’s counter-moves keep the bidding dynamic fluid.
- Consumer and retail: Amazon’s anticipated second wave of job cuts extends the efficiency theme across mega-cap retail-tech. Under Armour is probing a potential data incident, though initial reports suggest no financial data or passwords are confirmed compromised.
- Health and staples: Clorox’s reported intent to buy the Purell maker underscores steady interest in health-adjacent consumables and hospital channels.
- Macro-political: The “fear gauge” spike tied to tariff rhetoric around Greenland was reportedly erased after a policy pivot, reinforcing a pattern of sharp but brief volatility bursts around headlines. On growth, third-quarter GDP printed a robust 4.4%, and jobless claims figures continue to reflect a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. Inflation headlines cite 2.8% PCE in November, with the Fed “in no hurry” to cut again.
Putting it together
Friday’s open reflects a cross-current: commodities are rallying on both cyclical and hedging motives, long-duration bonds are steady to slightly stronger as yields hold in a comfortable range, and equities are consolidating a two-day bounce. Within equities, tech’s narrative remains constructive on AI, memory, and compute supply developments, even as investors take a breath this morning. Consumer and media stories are mixed, balancing cost-discipline and regulatory overhang relief against deal uncertainty and brand-specific challenges.
The macro mosaic—anchored medium/long-run inflation expectations, a 10-year yield near 4.26%, and strong recent GDP—continues to support a soft-landing baseline. The commodity upswing is the key variable to watch; if sustained, it could filter into inflation prints or margins over coming months. Conversely, if weather-driven energy dynamics fade and Chinese goods price pressures stay contained, the latest commodity pop may prove less inflationary than feared.
Outlook
- Watch the 10-year Treasury around 4.26% for confirmation that duration demand remains intact; TLT’s early gain is consistent with a steady-rate regime.
- In equities, monitor QQQ and XLK as AI and semiconductor headlines (Micron, AMD, Intel, Nvidia/China) continue to shape leadership. A firm commodity tape can also benefit select industrials while challenging energy-intensive businesses.
- In commodities, track GLD’s follow-through after target hikes from major banks; a strong close would reinforce the late-week rebound. For UNG, be alert to mean-reversion risk flagged by sell-side commentary once heating demand normalizes.
- In crypto, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the mid-$80Ks and rebuild momentum will shape sentiment into the weekend, especially alongside the BitGo listing backdrop.
Risks
- Policy and geopolitics: Sudden shifts in trade/tariff rhetoric or regulatory developments can reintroduce volatility quickly, as this week’s “fear gauge” swing illustrated.
- Inflation reacceleration: A sustained climb in energy and broader commodities could challenge expectations for steady disinflation and delay policy easing.
- Earnings and guidance: High expectations in AI-exposed semis and platforms raise the bar; disappointments could prompt sharp factor rotations.
- Cybersecurity and brand risk: Retail/apparel names face idiosyncratic downside from data incidents.
Bottom line
The opening tape points to digestion in equities, leadership from commodities, and a constructive tone in duration. With inflation expectations anchored and yields steady, the market can continue to reward quality growth and energy/resource exposures—provided commodity strength does not morph into a problematic inflation impulse. The balance of headlines tilts supportive for tech and selective cyclicals, but the session’s early tone is one of consolidation after a brisk two-day recovery.
Overview
U.S. markets are opening on a softer note Friday, consolidating a two-day rebound while commodities extend their advance and Treasury prices firm. At 9:30 a.m. ET, broad equity ETFs show modest declines: SPY trades at 687.99 versus a prior close of 688.98 (about -0.14%), QQQ at 619.58 versus 620.76 (-0.19%), DIA at 491.71 versus 493.69 (-0.40%), and IWM at 268.87 versus 269.79 (-0.34%). The tone is risk-neutral to slightly cautious despite constructive macro inputs from steadier yields and inflation expectations. Commodity strength is the standout at the open, with gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, and a diversified commodity basket all higher versus Thursday’s close.
Macro backdrop: yields, inflation, and expectations
Treasury yields remain anchored compared with earlier in the week. As of the latest available readings, the 2-year is 3.60%, the 5-year 3.83%, the 10-year 4.26%, and the 30-year 4.87%. The curve remains positively sloped from 2s to 10s and further out to 30s, consistent with a market that has repriced for slower inflation but still-solid term premia. The modest bid in duration evident at the open—reflected in small gains for IEF and TLT—aligns with the idea of incremental relief on rate-cut timing uncertainty.
On inflation, the latest CPI index levels available in this payload are for December 2025 (headline 326.03; core 331.86). Year-over-year rates are not provided here. However, articles in the past 24 hours flag the Fed’s preferred gauge (PCE) running at 2.8% in November, and commentary suggests the central bank remains in no rush to ease again. Inflation expectations in the model set provided are subdued: one-year at about 2.60%, five-year near 2.33%, and ten-year near 2.32%. The combination—anchored medium/long-term expectations and a 10-year yield around 4.26%—is broadly supportive of equity valuations and duration assets so long as growth holds and near-term inflation doesn’t reaccelerate.
Equities and sectors
Major index ETFs are fractionally lower at the open after broad gains on Thursday across technology, small caps, and longer-duration Treasurys (as highlighted in reporting). Today’s slight giveback appears rotational rather than risk-off. Sector proxies show a defensive tilt:
- Financials (XLF 53.44 vs 53.81) down about 0.68%.
- Technology (XLK 144.48 vs 144.88) down roughly 0.28%.
- Utilities (XLU, represented by the symbol field in the utility-sector quote, 42.68 vs 42.71) marginally lower, about 0.07%.
- Health Care (XLV 158.01 vs 158.29) off around 0.18%.
Notably, the technology complex remains the headline driver. Articles highlight several AI- and semiconductor-linked narratives: an analyst view that Micron’s profits could quadruple by 2027; AMD’s notable winning streak tied to data center CPU momentum; and Intel’s shares rallying into earnings as investors price progress in AI and manufacturing. There is also a fresh report suggesting Chinese authorities have greenlit purchases of Nvidia chips by domestic titans, a potential easing in a previously fraught U.S.-China semi channel. While we do not have single-name price quotes in this payload, these items collectively help underpin sentiment for XLK and QQQ, even as both open modestly lower after Thursday’s strength.
Consumer-related headlines are more mixed. Amazon is reportedly preparing a second wave of job cuts, which can signal ongoing efficiency drives but also pockets of slower demand or strategic reprioritization. TikTok’s formation of a U.S. joint venture and CEO appointment could reduce a regulatory overhang in social video, with potential second-order effects for advertising ecosystems at large. Separately, reports of Under Armour investigating a possible data breach present a negative idiosyncratic driver for that brand.
Auto and industrial commentary is two-sided. Analysis notes Ford and GM are executing well, yet remain exposed to potential memory chip shortages and higher commodity inputs—both relevant with oil, metals, and gas moving up. On the aerospace side, GE’s revenue growth trajectory is under scrutiny, with shares reportedly slipping after earnings despite beats on several metrics.
Bonds
Treasuries are a touch firmer. The long-duration TLT trades at 87.83 versus 87.69 (+0.16%). Intermediate duration is also up slightly: IEF at 95.83 versus 95.79 (+0.04%) and SHY at 82.83 versus 82.81 (+0.02%). The mild bid to duration matches the stability in benchmark yields and aligns with recent commentary that investors should widen the aperture beyond headline yield levels to broader dynamics—volatility, term premia, and curves—especially with policy path uncertainty still elevated.
Commodities
Commodities are leading early trade. Gold (GLD 454.26 vs 451.79) is up roughly 0.55% as buy-side narratives remain supportive. Recent reports cite RBC’s commodities team suggesting paths to higher prices amid “unavoidable uncertainty,” and Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end target to $5,400 on intensifying private and central-bank demand. While gold pulled back midweek alongside a risk rally, the continued bid this morning underscores its role as both a macro hedge and a beneficiary of incremental reserve diversification.
Silver (SLV 90.20 vs 87.13) is up about 3.5%, outpacing gold. That’s particularly notable in light of contrarian commentary arguing that silver may have topped, and Bloomberg’s observation of strong Chinese exports—data points that could constrain overly bullish silver narratives. For now, price action speaks to pro-cyclical as well as monetary hedging demand.
Energy is firm: crude via USO at 73.76 versus 71.82 (+2.7%) and natural gas via UNG at 14.12 versus 13.43 (+5.1%). Goldman Sachs characterizes the recent nat-gas spike as an overshoot amid a deep freeze, implying normalization risk when weather abates. Nevertheless, the front-end tightening in gas markets, combined with broader commodity strength (DBC 24.07 vs 23.74, +1.4%), suggests investors are recalibrating inflation and growth sensitivities to energy and raw materials.
FX and crypto
FX moves are subdued in the data provided: EURUSD marks near 1.1743. Without a prior-day cross rate here, the directional read is limited, but the level is consistent with a modestly softer dollar backdrop when U.S. yields are steady to lower and geopolitical anxiety cools from midweek highs.
Crypto is softer. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) marks 89,564 with an intraday range showing a low near 88,746 and high around 89,885; versus today’s open price in this payload (approximately 89,866), that’s modestly lower. Recent coverage points to Bitcoin slipping below $90,000 as larger holders distribute and haven flows seek other assets. Ether (ETHUSD) tracks similarly, marking 2,935 versus an open near 2,975. The BitGo IPO pricing above range at a roughly $2.1 billion valuation adds a contrasting corporate milestone amid a murkier token price backdrop.
Notable company and policy headlines
- Semiconductors/AI: Reports suggest China has greenlit purchases of Nvidia chips by companies like Alibaba, potentially loosening a constraint on high-end AI compute supply in China. Analysts also highlight Micron’s earnings power under a tight memory market through 2027, while AMD and Intel capture attention for data center CPU momentum and AI manufacturing roadmaps.
- Platforms and media: TikTok’s U.S. joint venture and a newly named CEO aim to end a yearslong saga about continued U.S. operations. Separately, Netflix’s stock pressure persists as investors digest 2026 guidance and the all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s assets; Paramount’s counter-moves keep the bidding dynamic fluid.
- Consumer and retail: Amazon’s anticipated second wave of job cuts extends the efficiency theme across mega-cap retail-tech. Under Armour is probing a potential data incident, though initial reports suggest no financial data or passwords are confirmed compromised.
- Health and staples: Clorox’s reported intent to buy the Purell maker underscores steady interest in health-adjacent consumables and hospital channels.
- Macro-political: The “fear gauge” spike tied to tariff rhetoric around Greenland was reportedly erased after a policy pivot, reinforcing a pattern of sharp but brief volatility bursts around headlines. On growth, third-quarter GDP printed a robust 4.4%, and jobless claims figures continue to reflect a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. Inflation headlines cite 2.8% PCE in November, with the Fed “in no hurry” to cut again.
Putting it together
Friday’s open reflects a cross-current: commodities are rallying on both cyclical and hedging motives, long-duration bonds are steady to slightly stronger as yields hold in a comfortable range, and equities are consolidating a two-day bounce. Within equities, tech’s narrative remains constructive on AI, memory, and compute supply developments, even as investors take a breath this morning. Consumer and media stories are mixed, balancing cost-discipline and regulatory overhang relief against deal uncertainty and brand-specific challenges.
The macro mosaic—anchored medium/long-run inflation expectations, a 10-year yield near 4.26%, and strong recent GDP—continues to support a soft-landing baseline. The commodity upswing is the key variable to watch; if sustained, it could filter into inflation prints or margins over coming months. Conversely, if weather-driven energy dynamics fade and Chinese goods price pressures stay contained, the latest commodity pop may prove less inflationary than feared.
Outlook
- Watch the 10-year Treasury around 4.26% for confirmation that duration demand remains intact; TLT’s early gain is consistent with a steady-rate regime.
- In equities, monitor QQQ and XLK as AI and semiconductor headlines (Micron, AMD, Intel, Nvidia/China) continue to shape leadership. A firm commodity tape can also benefit select industrials while challenging energy-intensive businesses.
- In commodities, track GLD’s follow-through after target hikes from major banks; a strong close would reinforce the late-week rebound. For UNG, be alert to mean-reversion risk flagged by sell-side commentary once heating demand normalizes.
- In crypto, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above the mid-$80Ks and rebuild momentum will shape sentiment into the weekend, especially alongside the BitGo listing backdrop.
Risks
- Policy and geopolitics: Sudden shifts in trade/tariff rhetoric or regulatory developments can reintroduce volatility quickly, as this week’s “fear gauge” swing illustrated.
- Inflation reacceleration: A sustained climb in energy and broader commodities could challenge expectations for steady disinflation and delay policy easing.
- Earnings and guidance: High expectations in AI-exposed semis and platforms raise the bar; disappointments could prompt sharp factor rotations.
- Cybersecurity and brand risk: Retail/apparel names face idiosyncratic downside from data incidents.
Bottom line
The opening tape points to digestion in equities, leadership from commodities, and a constructive tone in duration. With inflation expectations anchored and yields steady, the market can continue to reward quality growth and energy/resource exposures—provided commodity strength does not morph into a problematic inflation impulse. The balance of headlines tilts supportive for tech and selective cyclicals, but the session’s early tone is one of consolidation after a brisk two-day recovery.