State of Market: Open 12/25/25
At the Open: Seasonal tailwinds meet firm macro as equities lean higher into year-end
Stocks head into the holiday stretch on the back of fresh highs and calmer rates; metals leadership cools for gold but silver holds firm, while crypto starts mixed-to-softer.
TendieTensor.com State of Market Open
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Overview
U.S. markets open the final stretch of the year with a constructive tone across major equity benchmarks and a calmer macro backdrop. Coming off a session where the S&P 500 set a record into Christmas week, broad ETFs ended modestly higher, consistent with well-known “Santa Claus rally” seasonality cited in recent coverage. At the same time, Treasury yields remain contained with a conventional upward slope from 2- to 30-year maturities, and surveyed inflation expectations sit in the 2.3%–3.2% range across horizons. In risk assets, precious metals momentum looks more mixed at the margin—silver extended gains while gold eased from recent strength—crude was little changed, and crypto prices are narrowly softer versus their quoted opens.
Macro: growth, labor, inflation, and rates
Macro inputs remain supportive of a soft-landing narrative. A delayed read on Q3 GDP pointed to a 4.3% annualized pace, underscoring resilient consumer activity heading into year-end. Labor markets continue to show limited layoff activity—jobless claims fell again and, according to recent reporting, are even lower than a year ago—mitigating fears of a sharp downshift in employment. While some economists warn of a possible stagflationary patch if AI investment cools, the present data do not yet confirm that outcome.
On the price side, the latest CPI index level for November stands at 325.031, with core CPI at 331.068 (index values; year-over-year rates not provided). Survey-based inflation expectations as of December place 1-year at 3.20%, 5-year at 2.42%, and 10-year near 2.34%, with 30-year around 2.44%. This backdrop—expectations gravitating toward the low-2% area over medium and long horizons—remains compatible with equity multiples holding up and with a patient policy stance.
Treasury yields as of December 22 show an upward-sloping curve beyond the front end: 2-year at 3.44%, 5-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.17%, and 30-year at 4.84%. Long-end yields above 4% are consistent with neither overheating nor recession pricing; rather they signal steady nominal growth expectations with term premia intact. Commentary pointing to lower bond-market volatility as a potential tailwind for stocks dovetails with this snapshot of relatively orderly rates.
Equities: broad indices
Major index ETFs closed the prior session higher:
- SPY last traded at 690.28 versus a previous close of 687.96, a gain of 0.34%.
- QQQ ended at 623.94 versus 622.11, up 0.29%.
- DIA finished at 486.97 versus 484.23, up 0.57%.
- IWM closed at 252.70 versus 252.08, up 0.25%.
The advance adds to a year-end pattern that has historically favored equities. Articles highlighted that the S&P 500 notched a record on Christmas Eve for the first time in more than a decade and that Dec. 26 has tended to be a seasonally constructive day. A separate piece noted the VIX is on track to finish the year near its 2024 lows, reflecting rising investor confidence—though not without risks that markets could be overlooking.
From a style and leadership standpoint, the ongoing conversation around megacap technology remains central. Coverage pointed to Nvidia’s renewed momentum within the “Magnificent Seven” framework and to 2026 drivers ranging from data-center buildouts to new model launches. At the same time, there is an active debate about cost discipline and monetization for large platforms following a year of elevated AI investment. These dynamics will likely remain key to index-level performance given the concentration of market-cap in tech and growth franchises.
Sectors
Sector ETFs in the provided data mostly ended higher:
- Financials (XLF) last traded at 55.71 versus 55.43, up 0.51%.
- Technology (XLK) at 146.31 versus 145.95, up 0.25%.
- Healthcare (XLV) at 155.76 versus 154.99, up 0.50%.
- An energy/utility proxy in the payload shows 42.82 versus 42.62, up 0.47%.
The sector mix aligns with a macro tone of stable growth and contained rate volatility. Financials benefit from improved visibility into credit and net interest income as the curve normalizes, while tech remains underpinned by AI-related capex and software budgets. Healthcare’s steady gains fit the defensive-growth profile, and energy’s modest uptick reflects largely stable crude benchmarks.
Bonds
Treasury-focused ETFs finished firmer across the curve:
- TLT at 88.02 versus 87.50, up 0.59%.
- IEF at 96.34 versus 96.10, up 0.25%.
- SHY at 82.735 versus 82.680, up 0.07%.
These moves are directionally consistent with the yield snapshot described above. Lower bond volatility—as flagged in recent coverage—can reduce equity discount-rate uncertainty and support risk appetite. With the 10-year near 4.17% and long-end yields below 5%, fixed income continues to offer ballast, while leaving room for duration to perform if growth or inflation were to undershoot expectations in early 2026.
Commodities
The precious-metals tape is nuanced. Gold’s GLD eased to 411.93 from 413.64 (-0.41%), even as multiple commentaries emphasized how strong the pre-holiday run has been, with some calling the move “unhinged” and others projecting further upside into 2026. Silver’s SLV advanced to 65.23 from 64.84 (+0.60%), suggesting that the white metal’s beta to gold has remained constructive. Divergences like these are common late in extended runs and bear watching, particularly amid debate over a “great debasement” trade versus a potential consolidation.
Energy benchmarks were mostly steady to softer. Crude proxy USO ticked down to 70.185 from 70.30 (-0.16%). Broad commodity basket DBC was essentially flat at 22.635 from 22.64 (-0.02%). Natural gas (UNG) slipped to 12.395 from 12.90 (-3.92%), reflecting ongoing pressure in a seasonally volatile product. News flow around refinery operations and supply logistics can add idiosyncratic noise to energy prices, but the current readout points to range-bound crude and softer gas into the holiday period.
FX and crypto
In FX, the provided quote shows EURUSD around 1.1783. Without a prior-day reference in the payload, we characterize the dollar stance as neutral on this print. Technical commentary elsewhere highlighted a potential “golden cross” in the dollar, suggesting the worst of 2025’s drawdown may be behind it; should that thesis materialize, it could curb some of the tailwind that a weaker dollar provided to commodities.
Crypto began the session narrowly softer versus quoted opens. Bitcoin’s BTCUSD mark was 87,528, modestly below its listed open of 87,727, while ETHUSD was near 2,923 versus its 2,943 open. Articles noted that despite industry “wins” in 2025, digital asset prices struggled, and investors are now looking toward a more supportive policy backdrop in 2026. For now, ranges remain tight into year-end and liquidity is seasonal.
Notable company and thematic news
- AI hardware and licensing: Nvidia entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip maker Groq and will absorb part of the startup’s executive team. This underscores the ongoing arms race in AI acceleration and software-hardware stacks that has been a pillar for large-cap tech.
- Data-center power security: Alphabet’s purchase of Intersect was framed as a move to secure energy for data centers, a critical bottleneck in AI expansion. Power availability has become a strategic input alongside compute and data.
- Cybersecurity consolidation for AI: ServiceNow agreed to acquire Armis for $7.75 billion, aiming to create an “AI control tower” across assets. This adds to a year where cyber and AI operations platform deals have been prominent.
- Autos and autonomy: Tesla faces renewed regulatory scrutiny over Model 3 doors, even as some market narratives remain focused on long-run robotaxi opportunities. The tension between near-term product risk and long-term autonomy optionality remains front and center.
- Consumer/retail leadership: Nike’s shares were discussed in the context of insider buying by board member Tim Cook and separate sell-side positioning, highlighting how idiosyncratic corporate catalysts could influence early 2026 performance. Meanwhile, evolving consumer trends—weight-loss drugs, pricing sensitivity—continue to reshape food and beverage demand.
- Industrials and aerospace: Honeywell flagged a $470 million one-time cash settlement related to a Flexjet lawsuit and lowered its profit outlook. Defense shipbuilding also made headlines, with Huntington Ingalls winning a Navy frigate contract, a reminder that defense outlays remain a supportive end-market.
- Media and financing: Paramount’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery included a personal $40 billion financing guarantee from Larry Ellison, underscoring the scale and complexity of potential media consolidation.
- Metals and the “debasement” debate: Multiple articles debated the drivers of gold’s surge—from geopolitical risk hedging to monetary debasement—while also cautioning on the risk of near-term excess. The mixed GLD/SLV print today is consistent with a maturing move that could consolidate before any next leg.
Risk appetite and positioning
Sentiment indicators cited in coverage—low VIX, calmer bond vol—are supportive for equities into year-end. UBS’s roadmap for reigniting momentum into 2026, alongside expectations for M&A activity, points to a constructive base case. Still, Morgan Stanley’s list of potential macro surprises and an Apollo economist’s stagflation caution highlight the non-trivial tail risks if growth softens while inflation re-accelerates or if AI-related capex slows more than expected.
What to watch next
- Yields and curve shape: With the 10-year near 4.17% and 30-year around 4.84% in the latest snapshot, any break higher in term yields could pressure long-duration equities; a grind lower would sustain multiple support.
- Labor data: Continued low jobless claims underpin consumption; watch for any inflection that would dent soft-landing odds.
- AI capex and power: Follow-through on data-center power procurement and AI hardware partnerships will influence tech leadership breadth.
- Metals consolidation risk: After a strong run, gold/silver could either base or mean-revert; GLD’s minor dip against SLV’s rise is a micro signal to monitor.
- Dollar direction: Technical arguments for a dollar bounce, if validated, could weigh on commodities and EM risk in early 2026.
- Policy and regulation: From autos to crypto to energy projects, regulatory headlines remain an underappreciated source of single-name and sector dispersion.
Bottom line
The opening setup features a supportive macro constellation—resilient growth, steady labor, anchored inflation expectations, and orderly yields—alongside equity indices that continue to lean higher into seasonal strength. Sector breadth is reasonable, bonds are bid, and commodities are mixed with silver outperforming gold at the margin. While sentiment is constructive, investors should balance the tailwinds with vigilance around dollar trends, metals consolidation, and any surprises in growth or policy that could challenge the prevailing risk-on posture into early 2026.
Overview
U.S. markets open the final stretch of the year with a constructive tone across major equity benchmarks and a calmer macro backdrop. Coming off a session where the S&P 500 set a record into Christmas week, broad ETFs ended modestly higher, consistent with well-known “Santa Claus rally” seasonality cited in recent coverage. At the same time, Treasury yields remain contained with a conventional upward slope from 2- to 30-year maturities, and surveyed inflation expectations sit in the 2.3%–3.2% range across horizons. In risk assets, precious metals momentum looks more mixed at the margin—silver extended gains while gold eased from recent strength—crude was little changed, and crypto prices are narrowly softer versus their quoted opens.
Macro: growth, labor, inflation, and rates
Macro inputs remain supportive of a soft-landing narrative. A delayed read on Q3 GDP pointed to a 4.3% annualized pace, underscoring resilient consumer activity heading into year-end. Labor markets continue to show limited layoff activity—jobless claims fell again and, according to recent reporting, are even lower than a year ago—mitigating fears of a sharp downshift in employment. While some economists warn of a possible stagflationary patch if AI investment cools, the present data do not yet confirm that outcome.
On the price side, the latest CPI index level for November stands at 325.031, with core CPI at 331.068 (index values; year-over-year rates not provided). Survey-based inflation expectations as of December place 1-year at 3.20%, 5-year at 2.42%, and 10-year near 2.34%, with 30-year around 2.44%. This backdrop—expectations gravitating toward the low-2% area over medium and long horizons—remains compatible with equity multiples holding up and with a patient policy stance.
Treasury yields as of December 22 show an upward-sloping curve beyond the front end: 2-year at 3.44%, 5-year at 3.71%, 10-year at 4.17%, and 30-year at 4.84%. Long-end yields above 4% are consistent with neither overheating nor recession pricing; rather they signal steady nominal growth expectations with term premia intact. Commentary pointing to lower bond-market volatility as a potential tailwind for stocks dovetails with this snapshot of relatively orderly rates.
Equities: broad indices
Major index ETFs closed the prior session higher:
- SPY last traded at 690.28 versus a previous close of 687.96, a gain of 0.34%.
- QQQ ended at 623.94 versus 622.11, up 0.29%.
- DIA finished at 486.97 versus 484.23, up 0.57%.
- IWM closed at 252.70 versus 252.08, up 0.25%.
The advance adds to a year-end pattern that has historically favored equities. Articles highlighted that the S&P 500 notched a record on Christmas Eve for the first time in more than a decade and that Dec. 26 has tended to be a seasonally constructive day. A separate piece noted the VIX is on track to finish the year near its 2024 lows, reflecting rising investor confidence—though not without risks that markets could be overlooking.
From a style and leadership standpoint, the ongoing conversation around megacap technology remains central. Coverage pointed to Nvidia’s renewed momentum within the “Magnificent Seven” framework and to 2026 drivers ranging from data-center buildouts to new model launches. At the same time, there is an active debate about cost discipline and monetization for large platforms following a year of elevated AI investment. These dynamics will likely remain key to index-level performance given the concentration of market-cap in tech and growth franchises.
Sectors
Sector ETFs in the provided data mostly ended higher:
- Financials (XLF) last traded at 55.71 versus 55.43, up 0.51%.
- Technology (XLK) at 146.31 versus 145.95, up 0.25%.
- Healthcare (XLV) at 155.76 versus 154.99, up 0.50%.
- An energy/utility proxy in the payload shows 42.82 versus 42.62, up 0.47%.
The sector mix aligns with a macro tone of stable growth and contained rate volatility. Financials benefit from improved visibility into credit and net interest income as the curve normalizes, while tech remains underpinned by AI-related capex and software budgets. Healthcare’s steady gains fit the defensive-growth profile, and energy’s modest uptick reflects largely stable crude benchmarks.
Bonds
Treasury-focused ETFs finished firmer across the curve:
- TLT at 88.02 versus 87.50, up 0.59%.
- IEF at 96.34 versus 96.10, up 0.25%.
- SHY at 82.735 versus 82.680, up 0.07%.
These moves are directionally consistent with the yield snapshot described above. Lower bond volatility—as flagged in recent coverage—can reduce equity discount-rate uncertainty and support risk appetite. With the 10-year near 4.17% and long-end yields below 5%, fixed income continues to offer ballast, while leaving room for duration to perform if growth or inflation were to undershoot expectations in early 2026.
Commodities
The precious-metals tape is nuanced. Gold’s GLD eased to 411.93 from 413.64 (-0.41%), even as multiple commentaries emphasized how strong the pre-holiday run has been, with some calling the move “unhinged” and others projecting further upside into 2026. Silver’s SLV advanced to 65.23 from 64.84 (+0.60%), suggesting that the white metal’s beta to gold has remained constructive. Divergences like these are common late in extended runs and bear watching, particularly amid debate over a “great debasement” trade versus a potential consolidation.
Energy benchmarks were mostly steady to softer. Crude proxy USO ticked down to 70.185 from 70.30 (-0.16%). Broad commodity basket DBC was essentially flat at 22.635 from 22.64 (-0.02%). Natural gas (UNG) slipped to 12.395 from 12.90 (-3.92%), reflecting ongoing pressure in a seasonally volatile product. News flow around refinery operations and supply logistics can add idiosyncratic noise to energy prices, but the current readout points to range-bound crude and softer gas into the holiday period.
FX and crypto
In FX, the provided quote shows EURUSD around 1.1783. Without a prior-day reference in the payload, we characterize the dollar stance as neutral on this print. Technical commentary elsewhere highlighted a potential “golden cross” in the dollar, suggesting the worst of 2025’s drawdown may be behind it; should that thesis materialize, it could curb some of the tailwind that a weaker dollar provided to commodities.
Crypto began the session narrowly softer versus quoted opens. Bitcoin’s BTCUSD mark was 87,528, modestly below its listed open of 87,727, while ETHUSD was near 2,923 versus its 2,943 open. Articles noted that despite industry “wins” in 2025, digital asset prices struggled, and investors are now looking toward a more supportive policy backdrop in 2026. For now, ranges remain tight into year-end and liquidity is seasonal.
Notable company and thematic news
- AI hardware and licensing: Nvidia entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip maker Groq and will absorb part of the startup’s executive team. This underscores the ongoing arms race in AI acceleration and software-hardware stacks that has been a pillar for large-cap tech.
- Data-center power security: Alphabet’s purchase of Intersect was framed as a move to secure energy for data centers, a critical bottleneck in AI expansion. Power availability has become a strategic input alongside compute and data.
- Cybersecurity consolidation for AI: ServiceNow agreed to acquire Armis for $7.75 billion, aiming to create an “AI control tower” across assets. This adds to a year where cyber and AI operations platform deals have been prominent.
- Autos and autonomy: Tesla faces renewed regulatory scrutiny over Model 3 doors, even as some market narratives remain focused on long-run robotaxi opportunities. The tension between near-term product risk and long-term autonomy optionality remains front and center.
- Consumer/retail leadership: Nike’s shares were discussed in the context of insider buying by board member Tim Cook and separate sell-side positioning, highlighting how idiosyncratic corporate catalysts could influence early 2026 performance. Meanwhile, evolving consumer trends—weight-loss drugs, pricing sensitivity—continue to reshape food and beverage demand.
- Industrials and aerospace: Honeywell flagged a $470 million one-time cash settlement related to a Flexjet lawsuit and lowered its profit outlook. Defense shipbuilding also made headlines, with Huntington Ingalls winning a Navy frigate contract, a reminder that defense outlays remain a supportive end-market.
- Media and financing: Paramount’s pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery included a personal $40 billion financing guarantee from Larry Ellison, underscoring the scale and complexity of potential media consolidation.
- Metals and the “debasement” debate: Multiple articles debated the drivers of gold’s surge—from geopolitical risk hedging to monetary debasement—while also cautioning on the risk of near-term excess. The mixed GLD/SLV print today is consistent with a maturing move that could consolidate before any next leg.
Risk appetite and positioning
Sentiment indicators cited in coverage—low VIX, calmer bond vol—are supportive for equities into year-end. UBS’s roadmap for reigniting momentum into 2026, alongside expectations for M&A activity, points to a constructive base case. Still, Morgan Stanley’s list of potential macro surprises and an Apollo economist’s stagflation caution highlight the non-trivial tail risks if growth softens while inflation re-accelerates or if AI-related capex slows more than expected.
What to watch next
- Yields and curve shape: With the 10-year near 4.17% and 30-year around 4.84% in the latest snapshot, any break higher in term yields could pressure long-duration equities; a grind lower would sustain multiple support.
- Labor data: Continued low jobless claims underpin consumption; watch for any inflection that would dent soft-landing odds.
- AI capex and power: Follow-through on data-center power procurement and AI hardware partnerships will influence tech leadership breadth.
- Metals consolidation risk: After a strong run, gold/silver could either base or mean-revert; GLD’s minor dip against SLV’s rise is a micro signal to monitor.
- Dollar direction: Technical arguments for a dollar bounce, if validated, could weigh on commodities and EM risk in early 2026.
- Policy and regulation: From autos to crypto to energy projects, regulatory headlines remain an underappreciated source of single-name and sector dispersion.
Bottom line
The opening setup features a supportive macro constellation—resilient growth, steady labor, anchored inflation expectations, and orderly yields—alongside equity indices that continue to lean higher into seasonal strength. Sector breadth is reasonable, bonds are bid, and commodities are mixed with silver outperforming gold at the margin. While sentiment is constructive, investors should balance the tailwinds with vigilance around dollar trends, metals consolidation, and any surprises in growth or policy that could challenge the prevailing risk-on posture into early 2026.