State of Market Reports (Page 7)

State of Maket Reports Page 7 of 7 • 171 articles

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 19, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open mixed as bond bid steadies, commodities diverge, and crypto volatility lingers ahead of key AI earnings

11/19/2025 09:34 AM • Tape opens like it’s walking on marbles: SPY and QQQ a hair green, DIA sagging, IWM barely awake. Under the hood, tech gets a tiny lift while financials and healthcare wobble. The real juice is in bonds — TLT/IEF/SHY bid as yields ease, taking some heat off multiples. That pairs with firm gold and silver while crude gets sent to the corner and the broad commodity basket fades; nat gas does its own thing and firms. Crypto’s still the jump-scare: record ETF outflows and a sub-90k scare earlier this week, but BTC is stabilizing into the open. Macro backdrop stays market-friendly-ish: inflation expectations anchored near the low-2s and Fed Governor Waller still talking up a December quarter-point cut. But positioning is loud — managers heavy equities, cash skinny — so any miss can hit like a sledgehammer. Technically, the S&P cracking below its 50-day after 139 straight sessions has everyone side-eyeing the 10% correction question. Today’s vibe is “stabilize before the boss fight.” That boss fight is Nvidia after the bell: investors want proof the AI cycle still pays, not just burns capex, while tech credit spreads and AI debt chatter simmer. Meanwhile, retail splits: off-price hitting records, big-box feeling cautious, home improvement mixed with beats but trimmed guides. What to watch: whether the bond bid holds, if tech leadership broadens beyond a few mega names, oil’s supply headlines, and crypto flows. The close likely hinges on how AI guidance frames multi-year demand versus spend — and whether the market’s crowded longs can handle the truth.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 18, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Tech-led selloff extends into the close as investors await Nvidia; small caps and defensives show relative strength

11/18/2025 04:04 PM • Tech goliaths took a lap in the red while the scrappy smalls did pushups into the close. SPY -0.8%, QQQ -1.2%, DIA -1.1% — but IWM sneaked green +0.3%. Classic rotation energy: healthcare caught a bid, tech got de-rated, and everyone’s pacing for Nvidia’s earnings boss fight mid-week. XLK lagged hard (AI capex hangover + debt-spread chatter), XLV led defensively, XLE dipped even as crude popped. Under the hood, the macro mix screamed “cautious, not broken.” Belly of the curve got a hug on Waller’s December-cut drumbeat (IEF up, SHY up), while the long end shrugged (TLT flat). Curve stays positively sloped (2Y ~3.62%, 10Y ~4.14%, 30Y ~4.74%), keeping term premium spicy but recession sirens muted. Commodities flexed: gold and silver shined, oil and nat gas climbed, broad basket green — a tidy hedge into headline risk. AI narratives drove the tape: GOOGL buzzed on Gemini 3 and a “Buffett bump,” but hyperscaler math got side-eyed (rising capex and AI-linked debt issuance pinching spreads). Cloudflare’s outage reminded the street that internet plumbing breaks at the worst time. Retail’s up next: HD slumped on soft housing while the Target/Walmart double-header will test the “tale of two consumers” thesis; WMT leadership shifts added extra tea leaves. Elsewhere, ENR got zapped on a rare miss, BA’s 777X orders kept aero cycle alive, DIS reconciled with YouTube TV, and NVO adjusted GLP‑1 pricing. Crypto did its circus act: BTC knifed below 90k then ripped back above 92k; ETH echoed. Net: rotation mode on, risk tight, and all eyes glued to NVDA guidance to decide if AI still carries the market or needs a cooldown.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 18, 2025 1:35pm (New York)

Midday market check: Small caps advance while mega-cap tech lags; yields steady, commodities firmer

11/18/2025 01:35 PM • Rotation alert: the crowded megatech caravan is spilling bags while the small-cap goblins run the table. Midday scorecard: SPY dipping, QQQ lagging harder, DIA dragging, and IWM popping as money hides from AI euphoria into real-economy grinders. Sector remix is loud: XLK red as AI capex math gets questioned and cloud infra hiccups remind everyone about concentration risk; meanwhile banks, health care, and energy are carrying the bench. Rates backdrop = stable vibes: 10Y parked near 4.14%, 30Y around 4.74%, curve less cursed with 2s-10s positive. Inflation expectations hovering ~2.3% across the curve keeps the soft-landing dream intact, and Waller is still teeing up a December 25 bps cut unless the data dropkicks him. Tech narrative is tense: chatter that generative AI returns could compress for the mega twins while a fresh MSFT–NVDA–Anthropic tie-up stokes the arms race. All eyes on Nvidia earnings tonight for clarity into 2026–27—this is the boss fight for the multiple. Tape under the hood: Home Depot whiffed on housing softness, Energizer misfired on tariffs, but Alphabet got a Berkshire bump with AI roadmap chatter in tow. Bonds show a mild bear steepener (long end soggy), while commodities flex—gold, silver, oil, and the broad basket all green. Crypto pulled a classic V: BTC ripped off sub-90k lows back near 93k; ETH firm. Big picture: crowded growth is getting trimmed, small caps and defensives getting love, and the close likely depends on how much pre-NVDA de-risking is left in the tank.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 18, 2025 10:03am (New York)

Stocks open lower as tech leads declines; bonds bid, gold steadies; crypto volatility lingers

11/18/2025 10:03 AM • Risk-off sequel at the open. SPY down roughly 1%, QQQ off about 1.4%, DIA -1.1%, while IWM is the scrappy one at just -0.5%. The pain is concentrated where it hurts: XLK leading declines (~-1.9%) as mega-cap growth gets de-risked. Defensives get a tiny shield—XLV ekes green—and energy sits flat. Monday’s S&P break below the 50-day is still in traders’ heads; if bounces get sold, momentum chasers keep the pressure on. Bonds are the winners’ circle: TLT and IEF catching a bid as duration gets love, even with the long end still elevated (10Y ~4.14%, 30Y ~4.74%). Inflation expectations are anchored near 2.3%–2.4%, and Fed’s Waller floated another quarter-point cut in December—bullish for duration, not a free pass for long-duration tech multiples just yet. Gold and silver shine (GLD, SLV firmer) while oil (USO) drifts and nat gas (UNG) gets dunked ~2%. Crypto remains the chaos meter: BTC bounced around ~91k after a brief dip under 90k (lowest since April), ETH near 3,058—great for heart-rate training, lousy for high-beta equities’ nerves. Single-name vibes are steering the narrative even without quotes: Alphabet sentiment lifted by bullish calls and Berkshire’s disclosed stake; Nvidia is the week’s boss fight on Wednesday amid chatter of trimmed stakes and AI bubble debates. Home Depot’s miss flags housing softness. A Cloudflare-linked outage reminded everyone the internet’s plumbing can leak—another dent to tech sentiment. Positioning is the accelerant: surveys show low cash and heavy equity overweights. Translation: crowded longs + wobbly leadership = fast tape. Watch NVDA, yields, and crypto stabilization for the next turn.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 17, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks fade into the close as tech lags, energy steadies; bonds firm on dovish Fed chatter

11/17/2025 04:04 PM • Risk-off Mondays hit different: indexes bled into the bell while bonds got a soft-landing lullaby. SPY -0.9%, QQQ -0.9%, DIA -1.2% — and small caps face-planted with IWM -2.0%. Rotation screamed defensive: XLK -1.6% and XLF -1.9% ate it, XLV flat, XLE +0.9% doing laps even with crude basically unchanged. Macro was the driver. Fed’s Waller floated another 25bp cut for December, and yields nodded: 10Y parked near 4.11% with a positively sloped 2s/10s, a vibe that says “gradual cuts, not panic.” Duration caught a bid (TLT +0.3%, IEF +0.1%, SHY flat) as risk assets de-risked. AI fever cooled ahead of Nvidia’s print; chatter of big players taking profits fed the jitters, even as Berkshire’s Alphabet buy reminded everyone the long game still lives. Energy stonked despite USO -0.1% — production discipline plus geopolitics kept XLE green. Metals couldn’t hide: GLD -1.2%, SLV -1.0%, with recent gold–equity lockstep flashing a liquidity tell more than an inflation story. Crypto caught the rug: BTC -3.4% toward 91.8k, ETH -5.7% near 3k, with whales distributing into the dip. Headlines mixed the sauce: Boeing stacked a jumbo 777X order (GE engines in tow), Novo Nordisk slashed GLP-1 DTC pricing, Merck chasing pipeline via M&A. Banks lagged on NIM and consumer strain worries, while the NY Fed’s repo check-ins kept plumbing on the radar. Playbook: NVDA guidance and Fed cut odds will decide if this is a tidy rotation or a broader de-risking. Until then, bonds comfy, energy sturdy, growth kids in timeout.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 17, 2025 1:38pm (New York)

Midday markets lean lower as tech lags; defensive pockets firm while crypto extends its slide

11/17/2025 01:38 PM • Calm bleed vibes at midday after last week’s chaos. SPY and QQQ are off about 0.5% while small caps wear the dunce cap with IWM down ~0.8%. Rotation is textbook: tech and financials take the heat (XLK -1.2%, XLF -1.0%) while healthcare and utilities soak up bids. Bonds get a gentle hug—TLT and IEF inch higher—as the curve sits positively sloped and the 10Y/30Y hold near 4.11%/4.70%. Dollar firmer vs euro, gold a touch red, but silver and crude sneak higher; nat gas sags. Crypto takes the slippery stairs: BTCUSD -~2.8%, ETHUSD -~4.9%, hovering at session lows as whales lighten up—more profit-taking than panic, but liquidity feels thin. The boss fight is Nvidia’s print midweek. De-risking into the event is the whole plot, with chatter about trimming AI exposure bumping duration names while the secular-bulls still preach runway into 2027. Alphabet gets a narrative boost from Berkshire’s stake chatter, Boeing lands fresh 777X orders (GE Aerospace engines along for the ride), Tesla’s robotaxi talk keeps optionality dreams alive, and Novo’s $349/month GLP-1 DTC push props the healthcare bid. Energy watches Venezuela headlines as USO edges up and that XLE/XLU label mix-up still flashes a defensive tilt. Market plumbing stays in focus with NY Fed SRF chatter; breadth is meh, and the “Santa Flaws” rally debate won’t die. Mark your calendars: options folks have Dec 10 circled. Playbook: respect the chop, hide in quality, and let NVDA guidance, backlogged data, and yields decide whether tendies get served or seized.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 17, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Stocks open softer as tech lags; long bonds and oil edge higher while gold eases

11/17/2025 09:35 AM • Risk switch flipped to cautious at the open: SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM all in the red, with the tech crowd eating the first dip of the week. QQQ lags as XLK sags about 1% — classic “hide the megacaps” rotation — while energy sneaks a green candle with XLE up as crude (USO) ticks higher. This isn’t panic; it’s event‑risk yoga. Long bonds getting a light hug (TLT +0.25%, IEF +0.11%, SHY flat) as the curve sits 2y 3.58%, 10y 4.11%, 30y 4.70%. Inflation expectations are chill in the low‑2s, keeping the multiple dream alive so long as the data behaves. The boss fight is later this week: investors are laser‑focused on Nvidia’s earnings after a choppy AI tape. Options folks also circled Dec 10 for a “double helping” of volatility, so expect gamma gremlins to mess with intraday moves into that window. Headlines add spice: Alphabet buzz off a Berkshire stake and Gemini 3.0 chatter can’t lift tech this morning; Boeing/GE Aerospace ride long‑cycle demand vibes; Chevron/Exxon staying in production‑boost mode, giving energy a tailwind; Novo Nordisk cutting GLP‑1 DTC pricing pressures parts of healthcare. Gold loses a little shine (GLD down), silver too, while crypto is still on the back foot with whales distributing and liquidity thin. Dollar a touch firmer (EURUSD softer) — fits the cautious posture. Net: this is digestion, not doom. Watch breadth on bounces, XLE vs. XLK tug‑of‑war, and whether TLT can keep a bid with the 10‑year around 4.11%. The tape wants to consolidate into the catalyst cluster — then we find out who gets tendies.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 14, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks finish mixed as oil rallies, gold retreats, and long bonds slide; Dow lags while tech steadies

11/14/2025 04:04 PM • Friday closed like a tug-of-war: SPY stood still (-0.01%), QQQ squeaked green (+0.07%), DIA face-planted (-0.61%), and small-cap IWM remembered leg day (+0.30%). Sector rotation stayed the meta. Tech steadied (XLK +0.56) on the relentless AI capex drumbeat, energy rode firmer crude, while financials (XLF -0.98) and health care (XLV -0.57) ate rate smoke. The macro boss remains yields: an upward-sloping curve from 2Y ~3.56% to 30Y ~4.67% clubbed duration (TLT -0.57%, IEF -0.15%) while the front end chilled (SHY +0.02%). Inflation expectations are anchored (5y ~2.36%, 10y ~2.31%) but the shutdown scrambled October data, so vibes > evidence. Year-end funding gremlins lurk; some chatter the Fed may need to sprinkle liquidity into December. Commodities went pro-cyc: oil pumped on geopolitics (USO +2.19%), broad basket firmer (DBC +0.20%). Precious metals got bonked by higher nominals (GLD -1.80%, SLV -3.08%). Nat gas slipped (UNG -1.76%). FX stayed sleepy with EURUSD near 1.162. Crypto bled as bitcoin lost $95K and ether followed. Narrative heat map: semis/AI saw meh near-term talk (Applied Materials) but better H2 hopes; Nvidia’s print next week is the boss fight; Cisco’s AI networking beat kept the data-center capex arc intact. Consumer lane got Starbucks strike headlines and Walmart leadership shuffle. Pharma M&A pinged with Merck buying Cidara. Tesla still in the penalty box; Waymo edging toward driverless freeways. Watchlist: 10Y ~4.08% and 30Y ~4.67% for duration pressure, oil headline risk, Dec 10 options window for vol fireworks, and next week’s AI earnings gauntlet.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 14, 2025 1:38pm (New York)

Midday market steadies as tech outperforms; oil climbs, long bonds lag

11/14/2025 01:38 PM • Market put the floaties back on after Thursday’s belly flop. SPY is a cautious green (+0.14%) and QQQ leads (+0.27%) while the boomer brigade DIA sulks (−0.44%). Small caps (IWM +0.45%) say breadth isn’t dead yet. Long end yields stay spicy (10Y ~4.08%, 30Y ~4.67% vs 2Y ~3.56%), so duration’s catching hands and TLT is red — classic re-steepen vibes as traders cheer the shutdown ending. Inflation expectations look anchored longer-term, but the 1-year’s stickier, and with a potential data void (October jobs and CPI may never drop), each headline can move the tape. Tech is back in the driver’s seat (XLK +0.83%). Cisco’s AI networking print/guidance fuels the infra trade, while Applied Materials’ outlook says flat first half before possible AI/memory ramp later. Nvidia earnings next week is the boss fight — bulls see runway, one bear still grumbling. Healthcare’s a tad soft (XLV −0.21%) but M&A buzz (Merck buying Cidara for $9.2B) keeps the scalpers interested. Financials (XLF −0.62%) lag despite the steeper curve — looks more stock-specific than macro. Energy (XLE +0.31%) rides a crude pump (USO +2.67%) on Venezuela/Russia supply risk chatter. Metals lose their shine — gold and silver get tapped — while nat gas drifts. Dollar’s a touch firmer; crypto’s split with BTC heavy and ETH steadier. Playbook: let yields drift, not spike; ride tech strength into next week’s AI earnings; keep one eye on year-end funding chatter and the other on energy headlines. It’s recalibration, not regime change — so far, the rocket still has fuel.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 14, 2025 9:38am (New York)

Stocks open lower as tech leads declines; bonds bid, oil firms, crypto extends slide

11/14/2025 09:38 AM • Red open and it’s the growth unwind speedrun. QQQ is bleeding more than SPY and DIA, with XLK limping hard out of the gate as traders rotate from mega-cap magic into defensive vitamins. Breadth still stinky, leverage gremlins lurking, and every dip feels like a forced de-risk as the AI heroes catch their breath. Bonds got the memo first: duration bid, yields easing, 10Y hanging near 4.08% while long end chills—call it “higher-for-longer but not forever.” Inflation expectations are parked around the low-2s, which helps, but the policy plot is messy: no October data thanks to shutdown chaos, rate-cut timing debates, and year-end funding jitters on watch. Oil’s the spicy subplot—USO ripping on Venezuela/Russia supply risk chatter—yet XLE only slightly soft, like the tape can’t decide if this is stagflation or just geopolitics cosplay. Precious metals? Getting pancaked. GLD and SLV are getting dunked despite the bond bid—positioning beats narrative today. Crypto is its own gravity well: BTC and ETH extending the slide, adding a risk-appetite headwind without giving clean equity correlations. Corporate headlines are a mixed bag—AI infra names got love in notes, but the tape says profit-taking rules until next week’s earnings catalysts hit. Eyes on December 10 as options desk circle date, and keep a stress radar on funding markets into year-end. Bottom line: growth getting trimmed, defensives holding their shields, bonds cushioning the fall. Trade the rotation, respect the liquidity, and don’t get chopped before the AI scoreboard lights up next week.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 13, 2025 1:35pm (New York)

Midday market: Tech-led pullback as yields stay elevated; dollar softens vs euro, oil and gas edge higher

11/13/2025 01:35 PM • Higher-for-longer vibes just suplexed growth. At lunch, it’s a rate-driven risk-off: SPY -1.6% to ~672.7, QQQ -2.1% to ~607.8, DIA -1.2%, and small caps get the worst of it with IWM -2.5%. Curve’s upward from the 2Y to the 30Y (2Y 3.58%, 5Y 3.72%, 10Y 4.13%, 30Y 4.71%), breakevens anchored (~2.3s), which keeps real yields biting and duration crying. Sector scoreboard screams rotation: XLK -2.7% laggard, XLF -0.8%, XLE -0.6% even with crude firmer, while XLV sneaks green at +0.4%. Bonds drift (TLT -0.5%, IEF -0.2%, SHY flat), confirming the “no instant easing” message. Dollar eases vs euro (EUR/USD up), but not enough to save metals (GLD -0.2%, SLV -0.6%). Energy’s the only thing with a pulse: USO +0.4%, UNG +1.9%—though a billion barrels idling at sea says “cap that rally.” Crypto? Momentum rug: BTC sub-99k from 102k open, ETH ~3,234 from ~3,482—rates reprice, coins slip. Tape talk is all AI capex cascade: Cisco beats and guides on networking refresh, Micron crowned on DRAM tightening, and Nvidia tees up next week’s boss fight. Meta gets “best idea” on AI ad juice; JD.com pops on better-than-feared. Meanwhile, utilities sweating data-center power costs, Ford vows EVs aren’t optional, Waymo pushes highway autonomy, and labor keeps buzzing (Boeing contract vote, Starbucks barista actions). Shutdown endgame potentially today plus chatter of year-end Fed liquidity support keeps funding-watchers on alert. Bottom line: classic higher-reals day—tech/small caps dump, defensives hold, energy mixed, metals soft. Into the close, semis and mega-cap micro-catalysts decide if we bounce or bellyflop.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 13, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Softer open as investors parse shutdown endgame, stubborn inflation views, and firmer commodities

11/13/2025 09:35 AM • Markets rolled out of bed a little grumpy: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all opening slightly red as the value-and-cyclicals victory lap catches its breath. DC drama’s in endgame mode with a House vote to end the shutdown later, but the data blackout lingers—White House says some October jobs/inflation prints may not drop. Rates keep the pressure on duration with 10Y near 4.13% and 30Y ~4.71%, while breakevens sit low-2s, letting stocks tolerate higher nominals as long as growth doesn’t crack. Fed tone is cautious—Cleveland’s Hammack still on inflation patrol, and Bostic’s surprise retirement adds a future personnel wildcard. ADP hints cooler labor into year-end. Bonus chatter: potential $2k household “dividend” checks—near-term consumer juice, possible inflation aftertaste. Tech takes a breather as AI dreams collide with capex and power constraints; even with Cisco’s AI networking beat, AMD’s big talk, and IBM’s quantum breadcrumbs, XLK is stepping back. Financials and healthcare drift. Energy stocks lag while crude’s firm—classic early-session divergence that could snap back if USO stays bid. Gold’s wearing the shiny hat. Bonds slip as duration sulks. Crypto splits the difference: BTC up a touch, ETH a tad soft. Media/consumer is a mixed bag (Disney’s streaming progress vs. other drags, Starbucks strike noise, Paramount reset vibes, JD.com clearing a low bar). Industrials/auto themes stay live—Ford sticking with EVs, Toyota re-arming batteries, and the “robots have won” meme bolstering automation. Watch the shutdown vote, Fed jawboning, AI-infra order flow (power/memory/networking), oil’s floating storage saga, and any fiscal headlines. This looks like digestion, not doom.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 12, 2025 4:09pm (New York)

Dow leads into the close as financials and health care outperform; gold surges while oil slides with shutdown end in sight

11/12/2025 04:09 PM • Boomer index carried the day. DIA put on the cape (+0.7%) while SPY barely blinked (+0.05%) and QQQ did a polite head nod lower (-0.09%). Under the hood, it was pure rotation: financials and health care ran hot, tech was two-sided, and small caps lagged (IWM -0.25%). Rates backdrop says “orderly”: 2s at 3.55%, 10s at 4.11%, 30s at 4.70% with a positive 2s/10s slope (~56 bps). That lines up with a quiet bid for duration (TLT/IEF green) as the market hedged into policy weirdness. Commodities split like a reality show: gold and silver ripped (GLD +1.6%, SLV +4.1%) while crude face-planted (USO -4.0%); broad commodities (DBC) leaked and nat gas (UNG) squeaked higher. Euro firmed, crypto took a chill pill (BTC and ETH softer). Catalysts? Shutdown end reportedly in sight, but the White House hinted October jobs/CPI might never print. ADP weekly tea leaves pointed to late-October job shedding—soft-ish labor vibes into Q4. Tech storyline was spicy but mixed: AMD threw giant targets at investor day, while SoftBank fully exited NVDA to spread AI bets. CoreWeave chatter split the tape—earnings beat vs a data-center delay—plus rising scrutiny on AI power demand in PJM puts a spotlight on utilities. Toyota’s new U.S. battery plant adds juice to industrial supply chains. Sector scoreboard: XLF +0.87% and XLV +1.41% led; XLK +0.33% net green; XLU +0.23% showed a defensive nibble. Bottom line: rotation mode on—cyclicals and defensives teamed up, tech stayed selective, oil slipped, and gold shined. Watch the shutdown mechanics, the delayed-data flood, oil’s next move, and whether AMD-fueled breadth shows up without NVDA doing all the lifting.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 12, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday market steadies as shutdown end nears; Dow leads, gold shines while oil slips

11/12/2025 01:34 PM • Shutdown boss fight nearly cleared and the tape’s doing yoga, not CrossFit. Blue chips are carrying: DIA up ~0.8%, SPY barely green (+0.07%), QQQ a hair red (-0.13%), and IWM a touch soggy. Rotation vibes: defensives and banks in front while mega-cap tech cools off. Bond market is the hype-man—long end bid, 10Y parked near 4.11, bull‑steepening feel. TLT/IEF green, SHY a smidge lower. Inflation expectations stay anchored and September CPI isn’t re-accelerating, so equities keep leaning into soft-landing dream while leadership shuffles. Gold and silver stole the show: GLD +1.9%, SLV +4.6%. Oil faceplanted (USO -3.9%), dragging broad commodities (DBC -1%). Energy/Utilities reads are messy thanks to a feed glitch, net flat-ish there. Sector scoreboard: Health Care (XLV) leads (+1.6%), Financials (XLF) up ~1%, Tech (XLK) only modestly higher as AI hype collides with valuation math. AI saga: AMD sparked chatter with investor-day “giant numbers,” but the street wants rollout timing and who actually monetizes once depreciation-heavy capex hits—winner list may narrow. Autos/industrial electrification keep humming: Ford won’t quit EVs, Toyota flipped on a big U.S. battery plant with more spend signaled. Media/platforms mixed: Netflix off highs eyeing sports/ads; IBM drops quantum breadcrumbs. Macro catalysts queued up: House vote to end the shutdown could unlock a data flood (jobs first) and line us up for ~$125B in Treasury auctions—bonds likely to set the near-term vibe. FX/crypto: EURUSD a touch firmer; Bitcoin red, ETHUSD slightly softer. Into the afternoon: watch the vote, auction stats, the data dump, and AI capex updates. For now: blue chips pump, growth chills, duration bids, metals moon, oil gloom.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 12, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Stocks open higher with tech in the lead as investors eye Treasury supply, shutdown endgame

11/12/2025 09:35 AM • Green open, growth hat on. QQQ +0.5% at 624.73 is smoking SPY (+0.25%) and DIA (+0.3%) while IWM jogs behind (+0.2%). XLK leads (+0.8%) as AMD’s investor day drops “giant numbers” vibes and rekindles AI-semi thirst. IBM adds spice with new quantum processors aimed at fault-tolerant compute by decade-end—long runway, strong narrative. 10Y ~4.11% with 30Y 4.70% and 2Y/5Y at 3.55%/3.67% keeps a positive 2s–10s slope—friendly for duration-heavy tech. But the boss fight is $125B in Treasury supply: TLT a hair green while IEF/SHY are a tad soft—bull-steepish lean with belly nerves. Clean auctions = multiple expansion; ugly tails = growth cooldown. Shutdown endgame keeps risk perky, but when DC reopens expect a data flood (jobs, CPI) that can rip or clip positioning fast. Commodities say “meh”: oil slumps (USO -2.3%), nudging XLE lower despite IEA chatter that long-run demand can still rise. Metals split—SLV rips ~1.3% while GLD barely green. DBC softer; UNG edges up. Dollar a touch firmer (EURUSD ~1.1563). Crypto flexes: BTCUSD ~104,779 (+1.5%), ETHUSD ~3,567 (+3.5%). Watch the proxies—MSTR stays twitchy even when tokens pump. Playbook: ride tech leadership, respect the auction tape, watch semis for follow-through, and be ready for a post-shutdown data dump to reshuffle rate bets.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 11, 2025 12:32pm (New York)

Midday market: Dow leads while tech lags; bonds firm, energy commodities rise, euro edges up as crypto eases

11/11/2025 12:32 PM • Midday tape screams rotation. Dow leads the conga line while growth kids sit timeout: DIA pops as cyclicals and health care flex, but QQQ/XLK catch a chill ahead of a closely watched chipmaker event later today. SPY is basically a flat pancake—chop city—while small caps hover near unchanged. Under the hood, bonds are getting love: TLT and IEF green as yields ease, matching an upward-sloping curve (2y < 10y < 30y) and a “cooling to mid-2s” inflation expectation vibe. That’s a soft-landing snack, but we’ve got a data tsunami brewing once DC reopens—backlogged jobs and inflation prints crammed into a tight window. Expect bigger-than-normal moves when those hit. Health care is the hero: obesity/cardiometabolic buzz and M&A chatter juice XLV to the top of the leaderboard. Financials join the party on improving credit headlines. Tech is the laggard as AI crosscurrents mix hype with hard questions on capex, timing, and accounting—enough to nudge megacaps lower into the event risk. Energy commodities rip—oil and nat gas both up—yet XLE is oddly flat, a reminder that commodity heat doesn’t always flow straight into equity tickers. Euro is firmer, crypto is off the highs with BTC and ETH red—risk tone says “rotate, don’t liquidate.” Big watchlist: shutdown resolution timing, Treasury auctions as tone-setters, the chipmaker’s analyst day for AI sentiment, and any winter energy pinch. Rotation days can stick—until the data drop flips the script.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 11, 2025 9:14am (New York)

Risk appetite improves at the open as shutdown end hopes meet firmer commodities and steady long-end yields

11/11/2025 09:14 AM • Green screen at the bell. Shutdown-end hopium plus friendlier long end has bulls clocking in early: SPY +1.3%, QQQ +1.8%, DIA +0.9%, IWM +0.7% premarket. Tech leads the charge (XLK +1.9%) as the AI saga stays spicy—CoreWeave’s beat screams “not over,” but chatter around CoreWeave pressure and SoftBank ditching its Nvidia stake keeps rotations twitchy. Street talk of $1.5T needed to fund the AI buildout reminds everyone this is a capital-hungry boss fight. Health care’s in the slipstream (XLV +1.0%): Pfizer snagging Metsera and Amgen touting new cholesterol data keep catalysts flowing. Financials firm (XLF ~+0.4%) with the curve less kinked and a $125B Treasury auction gauntlet ahead; Visa/Mastercard settlement watch could reshape rewards math at the margins. Duration’s getting a nibble: TLT +0.4%, IEF a hair green, SHY flat—auction tails and bid-to-cover will steer the day’s vibe. Commodities flex: GLD +3.4% and SLV +5.8% rip, oil and natty firmer (USO +1.6%, UNG +1.3%), while XLE yawns—watch for follow-through if crude sticks. Dollar softens as EURUSD edges up near 1.1600. Crypto cools: BTC -1.3%, ETH -1.2%, with Chanos chest-thumping on MSTR. Playbook: follow Tech leadership, but watch if breadth widens to banks/energy/small caps. Key catalysts are shutdown headlines, the imminent data dump (jobs first), and Treasury auctions moving term premium. Net: constructive open, bulls in control, headline-sensitive. Respect the supply, trade the rotations.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 10, 2025 4:05pm (New York)

Tech leads broad rebound into the close as gold surges; bonds edge lower ahead of heavy Treasury supply

11/10/2025 04:05 PM • Green wall into the close with mega-cap growth doing the heavy lifting. SPY +1.5%, QQQ +2.2%, DIA +0.8%, IWM +1.0%—breadth finally showed up, but the crown stayed on Tech’s head. XLK popped +2.6% on steady AI/capex buzz and supply-chain chatter, while XLF barely nodded (+0.3%) and XLV cruised (+0.8%). Energy sat out: XLE flat even with crude firmer—positioning and idiosyncrasies overrode barrels. Rates backdrop = constructive-but-watchful. Latest reads have the 10Y near 4.11% and 30Y ~4.69%; duration ETFs leaked as the street makes room for this week’s $125B in Treasury auctions. With the data hose kinked by the shutdown, bid-to-cover and indirects are the scoreboard. Headlines say the shutdown could end this week, which helped the risk vibe even as airlines juggle staffing workarounds. Hard assets flexed. GLD ripped +2.7% and SLV outpaced at +4.3%, a clean nod to hedging with policy noise elevated and real yields still spicy. Oil and nat gas ticked up, DBC firmed, but energy equities shrugged. Crypto hit snooze: BTC hugged ~106k in a tight band; ETH drifted ~1% lower from the open—Big Tech correlation took a coffee break. Tape takeaway: growth-led squeeze with improving breadth, gold acting like the side quest, and bonds setting the next chapter. Watch auction stats, shutdown headlines, whether small-cap juice sticks, and if energy equities finally wake up.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 10, 2025 12:34pm (New York)

Midday market check: Tech leads a broad rebound as gold surges; bonds ease while shutdown headlines linger

11/10/2025 12:34 PM • Risk-on lunch rush. QQQ is carrying the squad (+~1.6%) with AI cheerleading, SPY rides shotgun (+~1%), and even the small-cap cousins IWM show up (+~1%). Boomer basket DIA is green but yawning. Sector scoreboard says Tech is captain while Energy sits in timeout despite crude basically flat. Rates aren’t throwing roses—10Y near 4.1%, 30Y ~4.7%—so TLT/IEF bleed a touch, but stocks shrug and push. The wild card? Shiny rocks. Gold and silver are ripping (GLD/SLV) even as inflation expectations stay anchored, a classic policy/fiscal/geopolitics hedge plus a dash of momentum. Crypto can’t relate—BTC and ETH fade from the open—giving you a neat decoupling: tech moonboots on, coins take a breather. DC shutdown headlines still buzzing: weekend chatter hints at progress, but travel ops are messy and sentiment’s dinged. Market’s vibe says “deal eventually,” with turbulence in the meantime. Under the hood, AI infra chatter stays loud—Nvidia chasing more wafers at Taiwan Semi keeps the build-out theme hot, even as some notes dunk on Meta and flag Microsoft’s losing streak. Elsewhere: Visa/Mastercard settle with merchants (watch rewards math), Pfizer bags an obesity-drug target despite Novo’s interest, Expedia talks AI tailwinds, Airbnb flags investment/regulatory weight, McDonald’s leans value, DoorDash catches heat on spending worries, Wendy’s better-than-feared, and Ford’s Lightning faces the EV reality check. Bottom line: breadth improving, tech leadership intact, metals screaming hedge, bonds wobbly. Keep eyes on shutdown headlines, AI capex signals, and the long end—another yield pop could reshuffle the leaderboard fast.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 7, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

At the bell: Tech lags while small caps, energy and financials steady the tape; gold climbs as long-end rates edge higher

11/07/2025 04:04 PM • Chop city but rotation did the heavy lifting. Mega-cap tech took another breather while the rest of the market quietly shouldered the load. SPY finished basically flat, DIA a touch green, and QQQ sagged as valuation/AI-capex hangover lingered. The small-cap crew (IWM) led with a tidy pop, backed by energy and financials catching a bid. Oil firmed, nat gas slipped, and gold put on some shine as the dollar softened and long-end rate vibes stayed twitchy. Under the hood, curves said “steepen me, bro”: front and belly eked gains while the long end leaked, leaving TLT red. Ten-year pinned near 4.17% with 30-year around 4.74%—not a tantrum, just enough sauce to help banks and crimp duration plays. Macro was a mood: the record shutdown is starting to bite, FAA chopping 10% of flight capacity at 40 airports, consumer sentiment sliding toward the basement, and Challenger layoffs at a 22-year high. Still, claims context says cooling, not collapsing. Inflation expectations? Anchored in the low-2%s, giving markets a reason not to panic. Commodities liked the softer dollar: gold and silver caught bids, oil edged higher, and broad commodities inched up. Crypto rebelled against the tech slump, with bitcoin back above 100k and ether green—so that QQQ correlation took a day off. Net-net: de-risking in megacap tech, not abandoning equities. If shutdown headlines and long-end volatility chill out, breadth could stick. If AI spend skepticism and steepening persist, expect more rotation days where sector picks matter more than the index print.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 7, 2025 1:54pm (New York)

Midday markets: Tech lags while havens firm; bonds stabilize as shutdown concerns and labor signals weigh

11/07/2025 01:54 PM • Midday tape = risk-off with a side of vibes. SPY and QQQ are leaking as megacap/AI gets the yips—this is tech’s ugliest stretch since the spring tariff tantrum. XLK is the anvil, with investors side-eyeing hyperscaler capex like it’s a gym membership in February. Microsoft’s losing streak and Meta’s post-AI-spend slump aren’t helping. Meanwhile, energy says “I lift” as crude inches up and XLE grinds green. Financials are flat, health care drifts, and small caps are down but not disaster-tier—broad de-risking, not full-on evacuation. Bonds put the cape back on. Duration bid shows up across TLT/IEF/SHY with the curve still anchored: 2Y ~3.63%, 10Y ~4.17%, 30Y ~4.74%. That lines up with the macro mashup: labor is cooling (October job cuts spiked) but not falling off a cliff (claims didn’t). Inflation expectations are contained, so the market’s running the “soften but don’t shatter” playbook. Havens firm: gold and silver shine, dollar eases vs euro, and crypto stabilizes—BTC a touch green despite grumpy headlines, ETH a bit perkier. Shutdown grind is the mood killer—FAA slicing 10% of flights at 40 airports doesn’t scream “bull market.” Eyes also on the Fed’s Financial Stability report for any credit cockroach check. Under the hood: semis/AI infra still spend-heavy (capex hangover risk), DoorDash gets clobbered on ‘26 investment talk, travel demand looks sticky (airlines, Expedia), and value/commodities quietly rotate in. Technically, a key S&P support cracked—watch the VIX for a volatility unlock. Into the afternoon: headline roulette on shutdown, any labor read-throughs, and whether bonds keep the bid to keep equities from sliding into the close.

Read State of Market Report