State of Market Reports (Page 6)

State of Maket Reports Page 6 of 7 • 171 articles

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 2, 2025 4:02pm (New York)

Tech leads late-day climb as yields stay contained; small caps lag and energy softens with oil

12/02/2025 04:02 PM • Mega-caps put the team on their back again. SPY squeaked higher while QQQ did laps into the close, powered by AI/software hype and clean rate vibes. DIA caught a tailwind from Boeing buzz about fatter 737/787 deliveries next year. Meanwhile, small caps face-planted the couch—IWM lagged as breadth stayed meh. Rates stayed chill enough for growth to flex: last seen 10Y around 4.02% with inflation expectations anchored. That kept TLT/IEF/SHY inching up across the curve—just enough oxygen for tech rockets, not enough to cook financials. Sector tape told the story: XLK strong on NVDA–Synopsys partnership headlines and a market that still pays for visible AI monetization. XLF flat with nothing spicy from rates. XLV slipped on vaccine chatter. XLE red as crude cooled and OPEC+ stuck to a pause, with Russian flows adding drag to sentiment. Metals split the bill—gold took a rest while silver kept shining. DBC said commodities light; energy led the fade. FX/crypto leaned risk-on at the margin: euro firmer, dollar softer, and crypto ripped—BTC back over 91k, ETH near 3k—helped by talk of broader ETF access even as bears whispered about potential forced selling elsewhere. Headlines kept the macro soap opera spicy: ISM still contraction mode, BoJ jawboning hike risk, and Fed-chair handicapping in the background. Concentration risk remains real—indices still riding a handful of titans. Next up: watch Salesforce for AI monetization proof, yields for any policy swerve, and IWM for signs of life. Until then, it’s the same playbook: steady rates, tech dominance, energy squish.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 2, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday markets: Tech leads, Boeing lifts the Dow as yields steady near 4%; gold slips while crypto rebounds

12/02/2025 01:33 PM • Green candles for lunch. QQQ is doing the heavy lifting while SPY grinds and DIA gets jet fuel from Boeing. IWM’s peeking green too—broad, not blowout. The macro seatbelt stays fastened: 10Y near 4% with a gentler 2s/10s slope, inflation expectations anchored, and ISM manufacturing still contracting (tariffs blamed). That combo = duration gets a hug, growth gets room to run. XLK leads again on the AI cloud, while XLF is meh and XLV lags as rotation favors tech/cyclicals. Single-stock fireworks: Boeing’s CFO teased higher 737/787 deliveries next year and better cash flow—industrial bid engaged, Dow smiling. In chips, Nvidia’s deeper linkup with Synopsys keeps the AI toolchain narrative spicy, with some takes calling NVDA’s multiple less scary than history. Apple is reshuffling AI research chairs—strategic vibe, not a day-trade trigger. Sell-side still pounding the table on AMZN (cloud capacity ramp), ORCL (bears too gloomy), and META (clearer AI monetization path despite big spend). Tesla posted rare China sales growth in November—a much-needed green shoot. Bonds bid modestly (TLT/IEF up) as that soft ISM print and steady yields play nice. Gold chills (GLD down), silver sneaks higher, commodities softer, and energy eases with OPEC+ pausing supply hikes amid surplus worries. Crypto’s perking up—BTC and ETH bouncing as a major U.S. asset manager opens the door to third-party crypto ETFs, with technicians eyeing a near-term reversal. Risks? Concentration still king (mega-cap carry), BOJ hike chatter is a global rates wildcard, and manufacturing softness lingers. Watch for QQQ/XLK follow-through, broadened participation into XLF/IWM, and whether 10Y ~4% keeps the risk-on runway clear.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 2, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open firmer as yields steady; small caps lead while oil slips and crypto rebounds

12/02/2025 09:33 AM • Green light at the bell and the rates cop is napping. SPY drifts up, QQQ flexes a bit more, and the real spice is IWM leading—small caps actually grabbing the wheel for once. That’s what you get when the 10-year hangs around 4.02% and breakevens whisper low-2% inflation: Goldilocks-lite vibes, nothing on fire, risk gets curious. BOJ’s Ueda teased a hike and rattled some global bonds, but stateside it’s a shrug—TLT a touch soggy, front end steady. ISM still showing manufacturing contraction keeps growth expectations tame and volatility contained. Tech’s wearing the crown early: XLK pops as AI headlines keep the dopamine flowing—Nvidia throwing money at Synopsys and Apple reshuffling the machine-learning war room. Financials catch a small bid with a quiet curve. Energy’s the weird one: XLE green while USO slides as OPEC+ pauses supply hikes but crude keeps sulking—something’s gotta reconverge if that keeps up. Healthcare drifts lower on vaccine headline risk around a rare heart condition, but that’s a narrow hit. Metals split the uprights: GLD cools after a heater, SLV keeps grinding. Euro ticks up, dollar softer—helps the risk mood. Crypto shakes off the holiday slump; BTC and ETH bounce near 2% with chatter about broader ETF access vs. a potential corporate seller. Big picture: breadth watch is on. Alphabet and Nvidia have carried a chunk of the year’s gains—great until it isn’t. If small caps keep leading while rates stay anchored, we might actually get a December where more than five names do the heavy lifting. Eyes on BOJ signals, Fed chair tea leaves, and whether oil’s pout drags energy back to reality.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 1, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks slip to start December as yields firm; tech shows relative strength while precious metals advance

12/01/2025 04:04 PM • December clocked in with a red candle as rates took the wheel. The 10-year parked right at 4.00% and the 30-year at 4.64%, and duration got body-slammed (TLT, IEF down) while stocks wobbled. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all slipped, with blue chips and small caps wearing the biggest bruises. The plot twist: tech still flexed—XLK squeaked green—while precious metals ripped, with gold and silver catching a clean bid as the euro firmed and real-rate vibes stayed tame. Global curve boss today was Japan: BoJ’s Ueda hinting at a possible hike rattled bonds worldwide on repatriation fears, pushing term premia up and making long bonds the piñata. Stateside macro was a split-screen: ISM manufacturing contracted for a ninth straight month (tariffs called out), but holiday shopping came in hot, keeping the consumer not-dead-yet narrative alive. Sector scoreboard said “pick your spots.” Financials eased with the curve weirdness, Health Care lagged on vaccine-safety headline heat, and Energy traded heavy even with crude basically flat and OPEC+ pausing planned supply increases for three months. Under the hood, the AI tape stayed noisy: chatter that Nvidia looks “almost historically cheap,” NVDA dropping $2B into Synopsys, and Workday getting clipped on trimmed subscription guidance—classic dispersion inside tech. Crypto did its own rollercoaster: BTC and ETH faded from opens but swung in wide ranges, as headlines ping-ponged between “reversal incoming” and “downside risk still alive.” Bottom line: rates wrote the script, tech and metals found the bid, and December’s tone now hinges on whether that 4% handle sticks or slips.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 1, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday market check: Stocks edge lower as energy and healthcare lag; precious metals rally; bonds slip

12/01/2025 01:33 PM • December rang the bell and the market hit snooze. Indices are a touch red with Dow and small caps face-planting while mega-cap tech plays lifeguard. SPY and QQQ are barely down, DIA drags, and IWM is the problem child as ISM shows manufacturing contracting again and tariff costs bite. Sector rotation is skinny: XLK grinds higher on fresh AI juice—Nvidia’s $2B drop into Synopsys and partnership headlines scream “keep building the AI moat”—but energy and healthcare are getting worked. XLE sinks even after OPEC+ paused supply hikes; demand/surplus anxiety wins. XLV slumps on vaccine headline risk. Rates aren’t your friend either: bonds slip across the curve, 10Y hovering near 4%, and duration (TLT) gets tagged. Both stocks and bonds red = hedges not hedging. Precious metals flex instead. Gold and especially silver rip, signaling a “store-of-value” bid while the dollar eases versus the euro. Oil is meh, gas catches a weather bid. Crypto cools off its holiday sugar rush with chatter that the biggest corporate bagholder might need to tap the sell button—thin-liquidity vibes magnify the wiggles. Big picture: breadth stays narrow, concentration heavy—Alphabet and Nvidia still carrying a silly chunk of the year’s gains. Value might have its day later, but today the tape pays for AI visibility and punts on cyclicals. Watch the next data prints and the Fed-chair rumor mill; leadership durability in AI, energy’s surplus overhang, and healthcare headlines are your near-term drivers. Until then, it’s headline hopscotch into the close.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 1, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks start December on the back foot as yields firm and metals shine

12/01/2025 09:33 AM • December kicks off with a gut check: stocks red, yields flexing, metals shining. SPY -0.6%, QQQ -0.9%, and small caps faceplant with IWM -1.3% as the long end pops and TLT gets smacked. Dollar eases vs the euro, but that’s not saving growth—higher real rates pinch AI winners and the most rate-sensitive names. Tech (XLK) leads the fade, Energy (XLE) slips with softer crude, Financials (XLF) can’t turn green despite the yield nudge, and Health Care (XLV) is the least bad. Bond tape screams “yields up across the curve” (TLT/IEF/SHY all lower). Keep an eye on the 10-year hovering around 4%—a push higher keeps the risk-off hat on and tightens the screws on valuations. Meanwhile, Team Shine shows up: GLD and SLV green on euro strength and a bid for ballast; silver outrunning gold. Oil (USO) stays soggy even with headline risk, while nat gas (UNG) sneaks higher. Broad commodities mixed. Crypto vibes: BTC steady-to-firm from the open, ETH flat, but the chatter about potential forced selling keeps nerves alert—liquidity matters. Under the hood, AI still drives the narrative even on a red tape: Synopsys bagged a $2B check plus an Nvidia tie-up, while software stalwart Workday caught heat on subscription guidance. Airbus turbulence reminds everyone idiosyncratic risk is alive. Last week’s CME hiccup was a PSA that market plumbing counts. Setup: anchored medium-term inflation expectations but rates still sensitive = narrow leadership and rotation risk. Into December, watch 10Y at 4%, the sticky front-end inversion, metals follow-through on a softer dollar, oil vs geopolitics, and any fresh AI-capex breadcrumbs. Red morning, not panic—just a reset after a hot Thanksgiving run.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 28, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks grind higher into the close as tech and financials lead; gold and silver extend gains while long bonds slip

11/28/2025 04:03 PM • Holiday week melt-up complete. QQQ led the charge as tech re-claimed the crown, SPY/DIA/IWM all green, and financials helped push the sled. Health care was the only one tripping over its shoelaces. Under the hood, the tape said “risk-on but choosy”: mega-cap/AI vibes rekindled with chatter about Meta and Microsoft’s best week since May, Alphabet hype over chips, and a tug-of-war in the AI supply chain where Nvidia’s swoon looked more fear than fundamentals while AMD wore the monthly dunce cap. Dell tossed coal on the AI server furnace; Workday reminded everyone guidance still matters. Retail had sauce too—Urban Outfitters execution buzz and Kohl’s with a results-backed meme-ish pop as Black Friday seasonality tees up the year-end runway. Rates stayed sticky: 2y ~3.43%, 10y ~4.01%, curve +~58 bps. Translation: growth-scare narrative cooling, but term premium still pinches duration—TLT/IEF bled while SHY shrugged. That backdrop juiced the shiny stuff: GLD ripped and SLV absolutely sent, with oil, nat gas, and the broad commodity basket firming as well. Euro ticked up, dollar eased a touch. Crypto was a split—BTC chilled just under flat but kept its 90k badge, while ETH outpaced. One operational hiccup: CME paused futures earlier thanks to a cooling snafu—didn’t dent cash closes, but a reminder that market plumbing matters. Big picture into December: data dependency on jobs/wages is max, chatter about a potential new Fed chair before Christmas is a wild card for the front end, and the Santa window is open—but dispersion is the boss. Pick winners, dodge landmines.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 28, 2025 9:32am (New York)

Stocks open firmer on Black Friday as long-end yields steady; gold and crypto extend gains

11/28/2025 09:32 AM • Thin tape, green screens. Black Friday opens risk-on with SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM all up ~0.2–0.3% as the long end chills: 10-year parked near 4% and 30-year under 4.7%. That re-steepening vibe is comfy for Financials and keeps duration panic muted. Tech leads, Healthcare drifts, and Energy wakes up for a tactical bounce. Metals are the show—gold grinding higher and silver ripping—while oil and nat gas catch a bid. Crypto’s still spicy with Bitcoin holding north of 90k and ETH over 3k. Early drama: CME briefly iced futures on a data center cooling hiccup—reminder that thin holiday sessions can turn small sparks into big swings. AI remains the arena. Alphabet is flexing TPUs, flirting with a $4T watermark and screen-flashing “overbought,” while Nvidia and AMD eat some rotation as the market gets picky about who wins the accelerator arms race. Dell touts broader AI server demand; software’s on notice after Workday’s guide wobble. Bonds say “steady, not sleepy”: TLT/IEF edging lower as front-end SHY stays flat—no disorderly inflation, but no fast-easing fantasy either. Seasonality tailwind is in play into year-end; just remember the float is light. Watch if early green holds into the shortened close, whether metals keep shining with stable real yields, if crude can base after a rough year, and whether crypto’s >90k momentum invites the next push toward six figures or a quick reset. Risks: thin liquidity whips, ops glitches, a hawkish Fed on hot labor, or a growth scare kneecapping cyclicals.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 26, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks and bonds climb into the holiday; tech and energy lead while gold, silver, oil and crypto advance

11/26/2025 04:03 PM • Markets rolled into Thanksgiving with a full plate of green. Broad rally, real breadth: SPY +0.69%, QQQ +0.89%, DIA +0.66%, IWM +0.89%. Tech and energy wore the crown (XLK +1.17%, XLE +1.32%) while defensives napped (XLV -0.25%). That’s risk-on vibes with cyclical seasoning. Rates cooled just enough to keep the party going—10Y camped near 4.04%, long end eased, TLT up. Dollar softened at the edges, and the shiny stuff popped: SLV ripped +3.7%, GLD +0.8%. Oil and nat gas joined the feast (USO +1.1%, UNG +3.1%), lining up with XLE’s strength. Crypto ignored the skeptics and moon-walked anyway: BTC and ETH both up ~3%. Macro backdrop: the Fed says the economy is muddling along, jobless claims at a 7-month low, mortgage rates edging down. December FOMC is the main course, with a spicy side of “new Fed chair?” chatter that could jostle term premium. AI capex remains the storyline. Alphabet flexed chip ambitions (1M AI chips by 2027 chatter) and buzzed on custom silicon traction; Amazon planning up to $50B for U.S. gov AI infra; Dell rode AI servers to upbeat talk. Semis are a tug-of-war—Nvidia clapping back at critics while AMD endures its roughest month in years. Software isn’t a monolith: Workday trimmed guides and got dinged. Retail warm-up: Urban Outfitters and Kohl’s drew kudos, but Black Friday deals might be mid thanks to tariffs and dynamic pricing—watch promos and margins. Bottom line: easing rate fears + anchored inflation expectations = risk appetites perking up. Next up: labor prints, Fed tone, and whether holiday spend brings the gravy without torching margins.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 26, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday Market Brief: Equities climb into Thanksgiving eve as curve steepens, gold and oil advance, crypto rallies

11/26/2025 01:33 PM • Thanksgiving eve melt-up and the gravy is risk-on. Broad tape climbing: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and even the small-cap gobblers (IWM) are green as the Treasury curve keeps un-inverting and the dollar chills. Yields are laid out like a normal menu (2Y ~3.46%, 10Y ~4.04%, 30Y ~4.68%), breakevens hang near 2.3%, and that combo screams soft-landing vibes instead of recession spook stories. Claims just hit a seven-month low, business investment is humming (AI-led), and easing mortgage rates are sprinkling optimism for 2026. Financials grab the stuffing—steeper curve = happier NIMs. Tech is up but rotating: in-house silicon momentum (Alphabet chatter, potential chips to peers, 1M units by 2027) is pushing a leader-board reshuffle while servers/integrators boost outlooks and some discrete chip names feel the competitive heat. Energy catches a bid with crude firm and global financing headlines; Health Care is a touch softer as policy/drug-pricing crosscurrents offset weight-loss data pops. Bonds say “meh but fine”: TLT up, IEF flat, SHY a tick lower—consistent with contained policy risk and some term premium out the curve. Metals sparkle (gold/silver up), broad commodities firm, nat gas pops on winter/LNG sensitivity. EURUSD nudges higher, giving commodities and multinationals an FX tailwind. Crypto goes full holiday mode: BTC and ETH ripping into thinner liquidity despite a skeptical column—vol stays spicy. Big picture: constructive into the long weekend so long as policy surprises and earnings landings behave. Eyes next on claims/Fed chatter, AI capex cadence, Black Friday real-time spend, and any fresh oil/metals supply headlines.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 26, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open firmer ahead of holiday; tech steadies on AI narrative as yields hover near 4%

11/26/2025 09:34 AM • Holiday tape came out swinging. QQQ is doing victory laps while SPY and DIA jog higher; IWM is the wallflower. Rates are calm-ish with the 10Y parked around 4.04% and the long end at 4.68%, so growth multiples keep their glow even as bond ETFs slip. AI is still the main character: Alphabet’s custom-chip drumbeat and chatter about hyperscalers testing alternatives has XLK leading, even if it makes NVDA/AMD stans a little squeamish. Big picture? Claims slid to a seven‑month low, mortgage rates pulled back, and inflation expectations are anchored ~2.3% long-run—clean soft‑landing vibes into a thin holiday week. Sector flow: Tech flexes, financials firm on steadier yields and resilient labor, energy equities catch a bid despite crude dipping, and health care lags on lingering headline risk. On the single-name board, GOOGL sentiment stays spicy on chips and ecosystem knock‑ons (AVGO and server cousins like DELL getting love). NVDA/AMD see wobble on the custom silicon narrative, but the total AI compute pie still looks supersized. AMZN chatter about up to $50B for AI infra (gov cloud workloads) screams long-duration capex. Retail’s a mixed snack: URBN and KSS rally on execution and clarity, while Black Friday watch starts now—traffic, baskets, and “are these deals real?” will set the tone. Commodities say hedge me: GLD/SLV firmer, nat gas up, crude soft. Crypto’s catching its breath in consolidation mode. Thin liquidity + long weekend = mind the gaps.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 25, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks advance into the close as small caps and cyclicals lead; bonds firm, oil slips, euro strengthens

11/25/2025 04:04 PM • Green day with real breadth. SPY +0.9%, QQQ +0.6%, DIA +1.5%, but the star was IWM ripping +2.2% as cyclicals and domestics took the wheel. Why? Yields stayed chill: 10Y parked near 4.06%, 2Y ~3.51%. That anchored curve boosted anything duration‑sensitive and let financials and healthcare flex while tech kept a modest bid. Bonds even caught a vibe, with TLT/IEF inching up. Energy was the odd one out as crude slid again. Policy drama juiced the tape: Treasury’s Scott Bessent hinted there’s a solid shot a new Fed chair gets named before Christmas. Meanwhile, December FOMC sits on a knife’s edge—labor gauges (job openings, wages, consumer vibes) are the coin flips, but medium‑term inflation expectations remain anchored around 2.3%ish, feeding the soft‑landing crowd. AI stayed spicy. Alphabet’s custom chips are reportedly on Meta’s whiteboard, Gemini chatter is heating up vs. OpenAI, and Amazon lobbed in up to $50B for U.S. government AI buildout—fuel for the capex supercycle across compute, networking, and power. Retail is all promos and value into the holiday sprint, with Burlington and Kohl’s in the headlines. Healthcare printed dispersion: Novo Nordisk got a weight‑loss win even as an oral GLP‑1 for Alzheimer’s flopped; XLV still led defensives. Cross‑asset: oil down (USO −1.7%), nat gas weaker (UNG −4%), broad commodities softer. Gold flat but still elevated on the year; silver ticked green. Euro firmed (EURUSD ~1.1559), while crypto sagged (bitcoin −1.1%, ether −0.2%). Watchlist: breadth continuation (small caps/financials), holiday sales run‑rates, and any Fed chair headlines. A surprise in jobs or inflation and this whole rotation gets stress‑tested fast.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 25, 2025 1:36pm (New York)

Midday markets lean risk-on as small caps and cyclicals lead; bonds firm, oil and gas slide

11/25/2025 01:36 PM • Midday tape screaming rotation. Small caps threw on the cape, old-man Dow’s pumping iron, and mega-cap tech is catching its breath. SPY is solidly green, QQQ barely above water, DIA cruising, and IWM ripping—beta and domestic cyclicals back in the driver’s seat while AI tourists hydrate. Bonds got the memo too: with the 10-year hanging near 4.06% and inflation expectations anchored in the mid-2s, TLT/IEF/SHY are bid, easing the macro headache and greasing the small-cap wheels. Energy? Someone spilled it—USO and UNG are sliding, while GLD keeps its chin up and SLV wobbles. Sector story is clean: XLF and XLV lead the charge, XLK flat-to-softer after yesterday’s AI sugar rush. Policy chatter is a live catalyst—Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated a very good chance of a new Fed chair before Christmas and doesn’t see a 2026 recession, but the hawk-vs-dove soap opera keeps every jobs and wages tick a market-moving event into the December meeting. AI plot twist: talk that Meta may tap Alphabet’s custom chips plus Gemini buzz spreads the love beyond a single GPU hero—leadership inside tech is getting picky. Abroad and aisles: Alibaba pops on a revenue beat and AI flex; Burlington misses on sales; Kohl’s names a permanent CEO. EV drama continues with Tesla’s China sales at a three-year low. ECB sniffing around Deutsche Bank is a reminder: financials have landmines even when they’re running. Into the afternoon: watch policy headlines, holiday traffic, OPEC+ tea leaves, and crypto vibes (BTC softer, ETH firmer). If yields stay muted and pump prices drift lower, this cyclical/small-cap party can keep going.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 25, 2025 9:34am (New York)

At the open: Dow and small caps advance, tech eases; yields steady-to-softer as energy and nat gas slide

11/25/2025 09:34 AM • Open bell vibe: value bros flex, silicon stars trip. SPY is basically a coin flip, QQQ sinks ~0.24%, while the boomer basket (DIA) and the small-cap squad (IWM) pop ~0.4% each. That’s a clean rotation into cyclicals/financials/healthcare as bonds catch a friendly bid. Yields are steady-to-softer with the 10Y parked near 4.06% and the 2Y around 3.51%, curve tilted positive out to the 30Y ~4.71%—textbook “rate-cut-more-likely” energy after NY Fed’s Williams sounded dovish and chatter builds for a December trim. Bonus chaos catalyst: Treasury’s Bessent says there’s a real shot a new Fed chair gets named before Christmas. Buckle up for curve whiplash. Tech is the pain trade: XLK bleeds as the AI soap opera heats up—Alphabet’s custom-chip buzz and a possible Meta DC tie-up have investors gaming a more crowded accelerator field. That’s pressure for the usual chip darlings, while financials (XLF) and healthcare (XLV) catch the rotation love. Energy ekes green at the open even as crude and nat gas get body-slammed (USO down >2%, UNG off ~5%). Bonds say “treat”: TLT +0.3%, IEF +0.1%, SHY flat. Gold steady-to-firmer, silver a touch soggy. Overseas and risk beta: EURUSD firmer; crypto chilly with BTC ~-1.4% and ETH ~-0.9%. Single-name spice: Alibaba pops ~5% on an AI-tinged beat; Tesla headlines a China sales low; retail is mixed with Kohl’s slotting a new CEO and Burlington whiffing on warm-weather foot traffic. Watch next: JOLTS/wages, any Fed chair headlines, and whether AI silicon reshuffles keep kneecapping megacap tech or this rotation broadens into the holiday drift.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 24, 2025 4:02pm (New York)

Stocks climb into the close as tech leads, gold shines, and long yields remain contained

11/24/2025 04:02 PM • Santa beta rally preview unlocked. Tech slammed the gas into the close and the rest of the market finally kept up. QQQ ripped about 2.6% while SPY cruised roughly 1.5%; even small caps flexed with IWM up near 1.8% and blue chips tagged along. This was risk-on with training wheels off: growth leading, breadth improving, and cyclicals not getting left behind. Rates stayed chill enough to let stonks cook. The 10-year hovered near 4.10% with a modestly steeper curve after NY Fed’s John Williams teased the idea of a December cut, and with October CPI canceled and November pushed past the meeting, Fed-speak is steering the bus. Translation: optionality on policy plus contained yields equals green screens. XLK led the charge as AI headlines kept the servers humming. Alphabet’s mojo lifted suppliers (think chips and optics), while chatter on Google’s custom silicon kept rotations spicy under the hood. CNBC’s note that Amazon may spend up to $50B on AI for the U.S. government screamed “capex super-cycle,” with data centers, networking, and power names staying in the spotlight. Tesla played both sides of the meme—talking up AI chips while fighting a sales slump in China. Financials, health care, and energy all printed gains; oil firmed, nat gas snoozed. Bonds caught a friendly bid with TLT and IEF up—easier conditions without recession panic. Gold and silver sparkled on dovish vibes. Even crypto shook off the weekend wobble as BTC and ETH bounced. Next up: Fed jawboning in a data vacuum, holiday spend checks (Black Friday/Cyber Monday), and AI capex math. Thin Thanksgiving liquidity could turn minor headlines into major moves.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 24, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Tech-led rebound lifts U.S. equities midday; 10-year holds near 4.10% as gold and oil firm, crypto stabilizes

11/24/2025 01:33 PM • Holiday-mode rally unlocked. Tech is carrying the squad into a shortened week: SPY +1.5%, QQQ +2.5% with AI/growth in full send, and IWM +1.7% says breadth isn’t just a rumor. DIA trails but green. The macro juice? Yields are behaving—10Y parked near 4.10%, curve less upside-down, and duration catching a bid (TLT up). That steadier rate backdrop plus anchored long-run inflation expectations is putting a tailwind under multiples. Tech is the tip of the spear: XLK +2.6% as hyperscalers keep writing giant AI checks. Amazon dropped a whopper—up to $50B for U.S. government AI infra, 1.3GW of data centers breaking ground in 2026. Meta gets a fresh defense for leaning into AI spend, and Google’s custom silicon progress keeps the competitive heat on merchant GPU land. Not just a megacap party either—defensives participate (XLV, XLF, XLU all up), signaling broader risk appetite, not a narrow squeeze. Commodities are vibing with a soft-landing script: gold and silver firmer, crude rising, nat gas the odd one out. Crypto stopped wobbling—BTC bounces ~2%, ETH ~4%—but the recent “belief-driven” chop says don’t put away the seatbelt. Single-name spice: Tesla’s China sales hit a three-year low even as its in-house AI chips advance; Kohl’s gets a new CEO into the holiday gauntlet; Novo Nordisk stumbles on an oral GLP-1 Alzheimer’s readout. Big watch-items into the close: can small caps and financials keep pace, do yields stay anchored around 4.10%, and what do retail earnings/Black Friday traffic say about the consumer. With CPI timing scrambled before the December Fed meeting, the market will chase any hint of growth or policy tilt—vol gets spicy fast in a short week.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 24, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open firmer to start Thanksgiving week as tech leads and long-end Treasurys bid

11/24/2025 09:33 AM • Thanksgiving week kicks off with a gravy boat of green. Mega-cap tech sprints out front: QQQ up close to 1% while SPY cruises higher and small caps keep missing leg day. XLK is pacing the tape as the market re-locks on AI/cloud platforms; the “Mag7” saga is getting more selective with Nvidia/Microsoft/Apple in the spotlight and Google chatter heating up on AI tools. Defensives nibble (XLV, XLF modestly green) while Energy’s ETF is a hair up even as oil itself drifts—policy headlines on offshore leasing and Russian flows could spice volatility later. Bonds doing the heavy lifting: TLT bid, IEF firm, SHY flat. The 10Y hanging near 4.10% keeps duration-friendly wind at tech’s back. Street talk leans toward another cut into year-end, but here’s the plot twist: key CPI and jobs prints are delayed, so the Fed’s heading into December with fewer instruments on the dashboard. Inflation expectations are steady, gold’s calm—risk can run as long as growth doesn’t trip. Commodities are split: GLD/SLV steady, USO softer, and UNG gets stuffed. Crypto still shaky—BTC and ETH leaking as November’s slide keeps sentiment fragile. Catalysts: Retail is center stage (Burlington, Kohl’s, Best Buy, Dell) with the whole holiday promo gauntlet ready to decide who gets tendies and who gets leftovers. Also watch Treasury auctions and term premium, plus any oil-flow fireworks. Bottom line: constructive, narrow, and very AI-flavored. If yields keep easing, breadth can finally join the party; until then, quality growth is steering the sleigh.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 21, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Risk appetite returns into the close as small caps lead, yields ease, and crypto stays volatile

11/21/2025 04:03 PM • Risk appetite slammed back into the close. Small caps went full send with IWM +2.85% while the big kids jogged higher: SPY +1.00%, DIA +0.99%, QQQ +0.77%. Sector vibe check: healthcare carried the torch (XLV +2.15%), financials joined the conga line, and tech stayed green but chill. Why the pump? Yields eased after NY Fed’s Williams kept a December cut on the table, and the CPI data desert until after the meeting has everyone staring at market breakevens—which are anchored around 2.3%. Curve check (11/19): 2y 3.58%, 5y 3.71%, 10y 4.13%, 30y 4.75%. Easier rates + S&P surveys showing the fastest growth in four months post‑shutdown = looser financial conditions, perfect rocket fuel for domestically sensitive small caps and cyclicals. Bonds confirmed the vibe: duration bid with TLT and IEF up, SHY inching higher. Commodities mixed: oil faded (USO red), nat gas popped (UNG green), and shiny rocks took a breather (GLD, SLV down). DBC closed softer overall. FX/crypto: euro firmer, crypto stayed wobbly. Bitcoin sliced below 82k intraday before bouncing around, Ether drifted lower—equities shrugged it off as the rates impulse ruled the day. Watch into December: more Fed chatter in a data vacuum, crypto tremors that could spill if liquidity thins, and whether oil’s cooldown keeps the inflation math friendly. For now, breadth plus small‑cap leadership and healthcare strength = tendie train still rolling.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 21, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday Market: Stocks Rebound as Yields Ease, Small Caps Lead; Crypto Stays Under Pressure While Data Delays Cloud the Fed’s Path

11/21/2025 01:33 PM • Midday tape got its second wind: stocks grinding higher as yields back off and the small-cap crowd steals the spotlight. NY Fed’s Williams dangled the “December cut” carrot, and with key CPI and jobs prints delayed or canceled, the market’s betting the Fed will lean on vibes, surveys, and financial conditions. Translation: lower yields = oxygen for anything rate-sensitive. SPY, QQQ, DIA are green, but IWM is doing the heavy lifting as breadth actually shows up. Health care is the gym bro today—XLV outperforms on a trillion-cap drugmaker milestone and defensive juice. Financials firm with a gentle bull-flattening helping sentiment, while tech’s taking a breather—XLK flat-ish as AI hype digests recent whiplash instead of mooning or imploding. Bonds bid across the curve (TLT/IEF/SHY up), backing the easing narrative and sprinkling a little multiple magic on equities. Commodities are split: oil soft (USO red), broad basket off (DBC), gold steady to slightly higher (GLD), silver giving back a bit (SLV), and nat gas popping (UNG) on its own quirky fundamentals. FX barely blinks with EURUSD steady in the mid-1.15s. Crypto’s the weak link—Bitcoin and Ether slid, with BTC tagging fresh April lows earlier—reminding everyone that liquidity tantrums still exist. Big picture: cautious risk-on with rotation vibes—smalls leading, defensives strong, tech consolidating. Into December, expect Fed jawboning to carry oversized weight. Watch 2s/10s and TLT for confirmation, IWM for breadth, and crypto for any risk-spill. Event risk remains elevated with the Fed flying half-blind.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 21, 2025 9:32am (New York)

Stocks firm at the open as Treasury yields ease; tech steadies on AI headlines while crypto slides

11/21/2025 09:32 AM • Green candles at the bell as bonds catch a bid and yields cool. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all edge higher with a quality tilt into tech and financials. The rate vibes come from NY Fed’s Williams hinting a possible December cut while the October jobs report is canceled and the latest minutes show split views — translation: event-risk roulette until the FOMC. Curve levels remain below midyear peaks, and inflation expectations (1y ~2.74%, 5y ~2.32%, 10y ~2.29%) keep the soft-landing narrative alive. Tech stabilizes after Nvidia’s results soothed the AI-bubble jitters, but it’s still a two-way tape: DOJ chatter on restricted chip exports keeps regulatory heat on, AMD is getting side-eye as a relative winner, Alphabet’s AI momentum is drawing focus, and longer-horizon bets like IBM/Cisco quantum remind everyone the next compute wave is a marathon. Health Care has M&A juice as Abbott moves to buy Exact Sciences and its Cologuard franchise for $21B. Retail is mixed: Walmart dinged on Sam’s comps, BJ’s beats and hikes, Gap more upbeat, while Bath & Body Works got hammered post-earnings. Verizon trims 13k heads; Starbucks strike noise lingers. Commodities: gold and silver slip even with softer yields; crude is red, nat gas firmer. Dollar a touch stronger vs euro near 1.1505. Crypto is the messy side quest — Bitcoin near 83.8k (-2.6%) after a sub-81k swipe, Ether -3%, and a $1.2T sector drawdown since October keeping vol elevated. Watch yields vs tech leadership and AI headlines for the next pivot.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 20, 2025 4:11pm (New York)

Stocks give back early gains as tech leads broad selloff; long-end yields ease, crypto slumps

11/20/2025 04:11 PM • The AI relief rally showed up for the open and ghosted by the close. QQQ got rug-pulled (-2.4%), SPY slipped (-1.5%), DIA held up better (-0.8%), and small caps (IWM) ate the toughest loss (-1.8%). Sector board screamed risk-off: tech (XLK) led the slide (-3.1%) with megacap/AI hype fading, financials and health care sagged, and energy leaked as crude eased. Rates played hero mode: 10Y near 4.12% and 30Y ~4.74% with a parallel drift lower; TLT/IEF green as duration finally did its job. Commodities were meh-to-red—oil and silver down, gold flat like it already priced the drama. Crypto took the express down: BTC -6.8% and ETH -6.7% with big intraday ranges and ETF-outflow chatter souring vibes. The macro tape is throwing curveballs: Fed minutes showed a split on a December cut and the BLS torpedoed visibility by scrapping October jobs and delaying November, so every AI headline hits like a macro print. Nvidia glow didn’t hold; AMD got named as a relative winner but buyers lost steam; chatter about 2026 buybacks slowing as AI capex stacks leverage added another headwind. Retail was a tale of two wallets: WMT dinged by Sam’s Club comps, TGT traffic soft, BBWI cratered, while TJX flexed record results. Elsewhere: ABT buying EXAS for $21B (cancer screening land grab), aerospace caught a headline risk rebuke, VZ cut 13k, and IBM/CSCO teased long-dated quantum dreams. Bottom line: defensives won the day, bonds cushioned, crypto cracked. Eyes on AI capex cadence, holiday retail, and whether yields break lower on cleaner disinflation signals.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 20, 2025 4:06pm (New York)

Tech-led selloff drags stocks into the close; Treasuries firm, commodities and crypto retreat

11/20/2025 04:06 PM • Tech tried a morning comeback, then faceplanted into the close. SPY -1.5%, QQQ -2.4%, DIA -0.8%, IWM -1.8% — classic de-risking with growth taking the heat. The “Nvidia-inspired rebound” couldn’t stick; AI leaders wobbled and XLK led losers, down ~3.1%, as traders questioned how durable the AI earnings engine really is. Talk of 2026 AI capex crimping buybacks didn’t help the vibes. Bonds caught a modest safety bid (TLT/IEF/SHY green), signaling a drift lower in yields from the recent 10Y ~4.12%/30Y ~4.74% prints. With the Fed split on December and the BLS scrubbing October jobs plus delaying November, the tape is reading tea leaves from curves and guidance instead of clean data. Commodities were soft across the board: oil and gas red, silver slipped, gold basically flat. Crypto got body-slammed — Bitcoin broke below 90k with ETF outflow headlines, Ether matched the slide. Retail was a mixed bag: Walmart and Target sagged on comps and cautious outlooks, but TJX ripped to records and Lowe’s bounced despite trimming the year. Healthcare threw elbows: Abbott dropping $21B on Exact Sciences, while UNH trims a million MA members to reset margins. Industrials/aero stayed nervous after a UPS cargo jet crash update hit sentiment, dinging Boeing and GE Aerospace. Financials bled with the risk-off and curve tone, Verizon’s new boss sharpening the axe with 13k cuts, and PANW prints that didn’t wow in a picky market. Big picture: yields, AI leadership durability, and holiday sales reads are the next bosses. Until then, expect choppy rotations and a premium on cash flow and balance sheets.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 20, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Stocks open higher as AI tailwinds steady sentiment; yields anchored, retail mixed

11/20/2025 09:35 AM • AI jets refueled, runway cleared. After a choppy stretch, bulls charged the open with tech doing the heavy lifting thanks to Nvidia’s beat, robust networking growth, and clearer demand visibility. SPY +~1.6%, QQQ +~2.0%, DIA +~1.0%, IWM +~1.5%—classic relief rally setup with XLK leading. Semis, accelerators, networking, and software all catch the “AI is structural” bid, even as some pundits warn 2026 capex could pinch buybacks. Macro isn’t fighting: 2Y ~3.58%, 10Y ~4.12%, 30Y ~4.74%—a gentle upward slope that props financials and takes heat off multiples. Inflation expectations hanging in the low-to-mid 2s keeps the rate dragon leashed. Fed’s got an info gap (no October jobs, November late), so expect more vibes from microphones than spreadsheets near-term. Sector tape screams pro-cyclical: XLF firm on the curve, XLE tracks firmer crude, defensives muted with XLV flat amid a busy M&A/insurer headline mix. Healthcare buzz: Abbott drops $21B on Exact Sciences’ Cologuard. Verizon’s new boss swings the cost axe with 13k cuts. Retail remains two-speed: Walmart wobbles on Sam’s comps, Target still traffic-challenged, Lowe’s beats but stays cautious, while TJX flexes off-price momentum. Bonds nod along (TLT/IEF/SHY +~0.1%), a green light for risk without a bear steepener. Commodities mixed: gold flat, silver easing, oil firmer, nat gas softer. Crypto’s the odd one out—BTC around 91K and ETH near 3K trade heavy on ETF outflow chatter. Big theme check: Microsoft–Nvidia–Anthropic tie-up, IBM–Cisco quantum (long runway). Watch if today’s tech pop broadens to cyclicals and smalls; with the 10Y parked near 4.12%, the lane’s open—now it’s all about breadth and earnings follow-through.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 19, 2025 4:10pm (New York)

Stocks edge higher into the close as yields steady; tech firms regain footing while oil slides and crypto remains under pressure

11/19/2025 04:10 PM • Market tiptoed green into the bell: SPY +0.39%, QQQ +0.58% showing a little mega-cap courage, DIA barely awake, and IWM flat like a pancake. Tech regained its footing (XLK +0.70%) while Energy ate pavement (XLE -0.84%) as crude slid. Financials held a modest bid and Health Care leaked. Under the hood, rates behaved: 10-year hovering near 4.13% with the long bond around 4.73%, keeping term premium chatter alive but not scary. The macro soap opera is the real volatility engine: Fed minutes flagged split views on a December cut, Governor Waller openly cheering for one, and the BLS canceling October payrolls means we’re trading vibes, not data, into the next meeting. Leadership is fragile—MarketWatch says Amazon and Nvidia slipped into correction territory with Meta already in a bear—but dip nibblers still re-engaged with quality tech ahead of Nvidia’s print, the AI referendum everyone’s queued for. Credit desks are eyeing heavy AI capex and tech spreads, so tone from semis matters. Commodities ran a split-screen: precious metals firmed (silver outpacing gold), nat gas ripped, but oil got clipped and dragged XLE. Bonds inched lower (TLT, IEF soft) consistent with steady yields. Crypto stayed heavy—BTC and ETH bled with ETF outflows and nerves, which helped cap the equity bounce. Bottom line: Slow-clap green. Tech cautiously re-risked, oil said “nah,” and yields stayed chill. Next up: Nvidia guidance, timing on delayed labor data, PCE tea leaves, and whether tech credit and crypto flows stop tugging on risk.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 19, 2025 1:36pm (New York)

Midday markets tread water: mega-cap tech steadies, energy slips, bonds and gold firm as traders eye Nvidia and patchy data flow

11/19/2025 01:36 PM • Halftime vibes: market holding a plank. SPY +0.12%, QQQ +0.04%, DIA -0.08%, IWM flat. Tech and financials quietly green; energy and health care wear the dunce cap. Everyone’s staring at Nvidia after the bell—the AI thermostat for the whole casino. Rates backdrop stays chill. Curve’s gently steep from 2Y 3.60% to 10Y ~4.13% to 30Y 4.73%, decent for bank margins but still a headwind for long-duration dreamers. Fed Gov Waller floated a December quarter-point cut to help a softening labor market, giving Treasurys a tiny bid, while BLS punting the full October jobs report keeps the data void spooky. Cross-asset tells: bonds and shinies firm, commodities mixed, dollar flexing, crypto faceplanting. TLT +0.14%, IEF +0.06%, SHY +0.02%. Gold and silver catch a lift (GLD +0.27%, SLV +0.48%) as oil eats a 2.5% loss (USO), nat gas pops ~3% (UNG), and the broad commodity basket (DBC) sags. EURUSD -0.4% = stronger greenback. Crypto gets buckled: BTC -2.4%, ETH -5.3% amid ETF outflows and risk-off whispers—but equities aren’t panicking, just narrowing. Inside tech, the AI trade is reshuffling seats: NVDA’s print is crucial; Alphabet rides Gemini 3 momentum; Apple’s low AI bar acts like armor; Amazon and Microsoft wrestle capex and credit spread gravity. Retail is the two-consumer tale: Target soft on traffic, TJX to records, Lowe’s beats but trims FY, Home Depot droops with housing. JetBlue adds Boston-Europe routes, Boeing lands more 777X orders, and a Cloudflare hiccup reminds everyone the internet has single points of failure. Playbook: NVDA guidance on demand cadence, supply balance, and 2027 roadmap decides the next tendies. Watch weekly claims and cut chatter in the meantime.

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