State of Market Reports (Page 5)

State of Maket Reports Page 5 of 7 • 171 articles

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 15, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open higher to start the year’s last full week; bonds firm, gold advances as investors balance rotation and rate-cut debate

12/15/2025 09:33 AM • Last full week of the year kicks off with green candles and fewer training wheels. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all pop at the bell, confirming last week’s “dump the crowded AI darlings, buy literally everything else” vibe. Breadth is the star: financials, healthcare, energy, and tech proxies are all up, with small caps joining the party. Bonds are flexing too—TLT, IEF, and even SHY are bid—nudging yields down and greasing the skids for risk. Precious metals like their backdrop; gold and silver are shining while oil and nat gas take a breather. Euro edges up, crypto yawns. Rotation roulette is still the meta. Weekend chatter ran the gamut: AI boom could wobble next year, but some still see the S&P grinding higher into 2026. Oracle’s recent stumble dinged the theme, but Broadcom’s print said the AI pipes are still flowing—sentiment remains jumpy. Today that nets out to a firm QQQ with leadership broadening, not narrowing. Macro keeps the wind at our backs—for now. Curve’s upward from 2s to 10s, with the 2Y near 3.52%, 10Y around 4.14%, and 30Y ~4.79%. Market-based inflation expectations are anchored in the low-2s, helping duration. But Fed dissenters are chirping, and if January data re-accelerates, this bond bounce can rug-pull fast. Single-name watch: Visa riding rate-cut tailwinds; Costco beat but the fine print matters; Lululemon CEO exit = uncertainty; Sanofi slumps on MS-drug news; Tilray and cannabis stay headline-driven; iRobot hits Chapter 11; media deal math (Paramount + Warner) still hostage to rates and regulators. Playbook: Ride the breadth, monitor IWM vs QQQ, keep an eye on TLT/IEF for the risk-on heartbeat. Into the week: FedEx, Jabil, plus key inflation prints to validate (or vaporize) this rally.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 12, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Tech-led pullback into the close as investors rotate defensively; long bonds slip, gold firms, crypto retreats

12/12/2025 04:04 PM • Fed-cut afterparty hangover. The week ended with a tech-led faceplant: SPY gave back post-Fed juice, QQQ took the biggest tumble, and small caps lagged as the crowd rotated into financials and health care for safety. Long-end Treasurys caught a fade (classic bear-steepener vibes), gold put on the crown, and crypto couldn’t keep a bid. The AI complex stayed wobbly—Oracle’s update rekindled nerves about funding the mega-capex dream, while Broadcom hype met disclosure confusion. Net: sentiment is jumpy and headlines are steering the wheel. Rates backdrop still matters. With the last 10Y read at 4.13% (Dec 10) and long-duration ETFs red, the tape is prepping for a choppier January if the bond rally cools. Two Fed dissents on inflation are a reminder the policy path isn’t on autopilot. Sector scoreboard said it all: XLK sagged, XLF and XLV caught flows. Visa strength helped the Dow look less bruised. On the consumer beat, Costco’s upside, travel enthusiasm, and Disney buzz (Zootopia 2 + OpenAI tie-in) show pockets of resilience, but the broader tape cooled. Commodities were a mixed bag—gold up, silver and energy down, broad basket softer. Crypto? Still not partying with the Fed—BTC and ETH both slipped, range-bound vibes returning. What’s next: watch whether dip-bots return to AI/megacaps, if financials keep the ball, and how the curve behaves into year-end. AI capex receipts, bond-market tone, and holiday spend color the next moves.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 12, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday markets dip as post-Fed rotation cools; tech underperforms while financials and health care show relative resilience

12/12/2025 01:34 PM • Midday vibes: the rate-cut party’s out of confetti and everyone’s hydrating. Indices are easing after the sprint to records—SPY 683-ish, QQQ 616-ish, DIA soft, IWM catching its breath. The game plan is rotation, not panic: tech’s wearing the ankle weights while financials and health care spot the lift. Long-end yields are still the boss level (10Y ~4.13%, 30Y ~4.78), and duration is feeling that gravity—TLT and IEF red, SHY basically flat. That lines up with Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee saying “maybe we cut too soon,” which put a little chill on the bond rally hype into January. AI remains the main quest but with side quests and plot twists. Oracle’s mixed print and financing chatter dinged the AI mood, overshadowing Broadcom’s upbeat AI revenue drumbeat. The platform trio (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta) still gets the 2025 AI buff, but today it’s valuation cardio. Disney jumping in with a big OpenAI/Sora tie-up shows the content houses want AI in their kitchen, too. Elsewhere: Costco’s still a membership machine, Visa rides the value wave, and cannabis names popped on talk of easing federal restrictions. Rivian had an Autonomy/AI Day but the stock faded into it—street wants receipts, not roadmaps. Commodities say “cautious risk-on”: gold firmer, silver and energy softer. Crypto can’t catch a bid—BTC and ETH down despite the Fed’s cut, so the pump isn’t coming from policy alone. Bottom line: clean consolidation after a heater. Watch the long end—if yields back up, tech gets more leg day; if they chill, QQQ gets relief. Rotation into financials and health care looks sticky while AI headlines keep driving intraday mood swings.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 12, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open mixed as bond prices slip; precious metals firm while tech digests AI crosscurrents

12/12/2025 09:33 AM • Opening bell dropped a vibes check: rotation still rotating. SPY nudged red while QQQ face-planted out the gate, but the boomer caravan (DIA) and the small-cap goblins (IWM) caught a light bid. Long bonds coughed up some of the Fed-cut sugar high (TLT, IEF down), and the shiny-rock crowd ran victory laps with GLD/SLV ripping. Net read: yields inch up, duration chills, cyclicals and fins swipe some spotlight from mega-cap AI. Tech is digesting AI crosscurrents. Oracle’s mixed vibes and AI-spend nerves tugged XLK lower and splashed onto the usual AI beneficiaries, while Broadcom’s print stayed beastly enough to keep the dream alive. Financials popped with a steeper curve tailwind, energy edged green even as crude ETFs sagged, and health care stayed flat, stuck between policy noise and juicy innovation headlines. Macro soap opera: Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee defended his dissent on the cut—translation: the committee isn’t on autopilot even with inflation expectations anchored. Bond pros are whispering that the post-cut rally gets re-marked in January, and today’s duration giveback fits that playbook. Elsewhere, cannabis equities lit up on federal reclassification buzz, crypto yawned in place, and precious metals flexed as hedges, not fear. Flows matter: options chatter says a slide toward SPX ~6,500 could trigger dealer de-hedging shenanigans, so mind your levels. Watchlist into the session: 10-year drift vs. cyclicals, metals follow-through, AI tape-bombs (Oracle drag vs. Broadcom carry), and consumer-strength tells from payments. Rotation isn’t dead; it’s just getting its steps in.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 11, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Dow leads into the close as financials rally; megacap tech soft after Oracle shock while precious metals climb

12/11/2025 04:03 PM • Textbook rotation day. The Dow ripped while the Qs took a timeout. SPY eked out a tidy green, DIA led hard, and small caps kept the comeback tour going as money rotated from AI-drama tech into banks, defensives, and anything that benefits from a still‑steep long end. Fed just clipped another quarter‑point and the front/belly behaved, but the 10Y parked near 4.18% and the 30Y at 4.80% kept duration honest. Translation: financials partied, long bonds sulked, and megacap AI took a chill pill after Oracle’s faceplant. Under the hood, XLF was the day’s gym bro—strong and steady—while XLK sagged on AI spend fatigue headlines. Health care grabbed a comfy bid and utilities inched up as rates stabilized. TLT ticked lower, IEF flat-ish, SHY a hair higher. Metals flashed their shiny muscles: GLD and SLV extended their runs as hedging stayed in style. Energy flopped with USO and especially UNG getting air-dropped, signaling growth jitters trumped any tanker headline premium. Dollar softened versus the euro, and crypto shrugged at a big bank’s target cut—Bitcoin and Ether drifted higher anyway because flows > forecasts. The single-stock tape was a mosaic: ORCL’s drop sent shivers through AI software and splashed on NVDA; Visa spiked like it saw a fresh limit order book, health care names like CVS cheered guidance, and the momentum crowd kept gassing CVNA. Meanwhile, AVGO hype into earnings and ADBE’s “beat but meh” reminded everyone the bar is high. Net-net: rotation is real, yields still rule, and leadership is up for grabs. Watch long-end auctions, AVGO’s print, and metals momentum for the next move.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 11, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday market: Dow and small-caps extend post-Fed bid while tech softens on AI jitters; metals rally, oil and gas retreat

12/11/2025 01:33 PM • Midday scoreboard says rotation nation. SPY is basically a statue, but under the hood it’s a full-on costume change: DIA and IWM ripping while QQQ takes a lap. Yesterday’s Fed cut lit the fuse for value/cyclicals, and today’s follow-through has financials and healthcare flexing, while mega-cap tech cools as the market asks, “Show me the AI profits.” Oracle’s post-print drama rekindled doubts about the cadence and financing of the AI buildout, with spillover into the usual AI crew. Broadcom’s report is now the next boss fight for custom silicon and capex discipline. Rates backdrop is the puppet master. Bonds have a modest bid, with yields a touch lower after the close, even as the curve still sports that long-end term premium. Inflation expectations remain anchored near the low-2s, keeping the “patient Fed” narrative alive—but that mysterious long-end behavior is still a wild card for high-duration assets. Sector tape is textbook: XLF leads as a steeper curve whispers sweeter NIMs; XLV rides real-drug news vibes; XLK lags. Metals are shiny—silver trying to speed-run to 60—while oil and especially nat gas get rolled. Dollar softer versus the euro, crypto drifting with one bank dialing back the end-year BTC dream to 100k. Near-term watchlist: Broadcom’s guidance for hard evidence on AI returns, options-expiry flows that can turbocharge any dip, and whether 10s/30s decide to re-spike and rain on the relief rally. For now, it’s Dow bros and small-cap squads up, AI tourists on timeout.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 11, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open mixed after Fed cut: Tech slips, Dow edges higher as curve steepens and metals firm

12/11/2025 09:34 AM • Fresh off the Fed’s final cut of 2025, the open is pure rotation theater. Growth takes a breather while boomers and defensives catch a pump. SPY drifts -0.3%, QQQ slips -0.6%, DIA nudges +0.2%, and small caps are flat. The real main character? The curve. 2s ≈3.61% vs 10s ≈4.18% puts 10s/2s at roughly +57 bps — not inverted, finally — a setup that feeds bank confidence and cools high-duration mega-cap multiples. Tech is the laggard with XLK -1.3% as the AI complex checks its credit card bill: Adobe’s AI beat didn’t juice sentiment, Oracle’s mixed print raised financing eyebrows, and everyone is eyeing Broadcom for the custom silicon read-through. Meanwhile, health care flexes (XLV +0.5%) on weight-loss momentum and sturdy defensives, and financials (XLF +0.2%) ride the steepener. Bonds catch a bid (TLT, IEF green), inflation expectations look anchored, and the market reads claims noise as seasonal static, not a macro rug-pull. Commodities split: silver rips again, gold steady, but energy eats it — crude and nat gas slump despite a spicy tanker headline, suggesting supply/demand and positioning still run the show. Dollar softer via EURUSD pop, but crypto yawns lower after target trims. Big watch items next: AVGO earnings for AI capex sanity checks, whether the curve keeps steepening (banks win) or re-flattens (growth sighs), and options flows into December expiration. Bottom line: this is a rotation tape — pick your sectors, don’t chase the hottest narrative without a balance sheet to match.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 10, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks grind higher into the close as small caps and the Dow lead; bonds and commodities firm while dollar eases

12/10/2025 04:04 PM • Broad tape win into the bell. SPY +0.65% kept climbing on rails, but the real fireworks were in the domestics: IWM ripped +1.36% and the boomer brigade (DIA) popped +1.04%. QQQ lagged at +0.40%—still green, just sharing the spotlight for once. Under the hood, financials and health care carried the baton, tech participated, and energy took a breather even with oil firmer. Rates backdrop stayed friendlier into the close: TLT, IEF, SHY all eked out gains as traders digested a Fed tone CNBC says the market liked. Long end’s still the boss (10Y ~4.17%, 30Y ~4.81%), and MarketWatch’s “bond-market mystery” at the back end keeps everyone humble. Inflation expectations chilling in the low-2% zone helps keep real-rate whiplash in check. Commodities had a moment: gold ticked up, silver sprinted again with $60 in its sights, oil and nat gas firmed, and the dollar eased (euro near 1.1688). Crypto mixed—BTC basically sideways while ETH showed a little extra juice. Semi watch: Broadcom (AVGO) earnings Thursday—custom AI silicon demand is the main character. Nvidia sentiment perked on talk of U.S. chip sales to China resuming (with caveats), while Marvell tried to calm the cloud-customer rumor mill. Single-name spice: CVNA squeeze saga plus index-inclusion chatter, GE Vernova printed a record on cash-return talk, and CVS juiced health care with upbeat 2025. Flows and policy are the wild cards: options positioning could turbocharge a 5% SPX pullback toward 6,500 if it starts sliding; Fed chair interview headlines and the Supreme Court tariff case could jolt bonds. For now, breadth is back, small caps are cooking, and the tape likes the soft-dollar + steady-yield combo. Watch AVGO, silver’s $60 test, and whether long-end yields behave.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 10, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday markets mixed as investors await the Fed’s final 2025 decision; Dow, small caps firm while tech eases, bonds catch a bid

12/10/2025 01:34 PM • Midday tape is pure pre-Powell chess. SPY basically flat, QQQ sagging, while the boomer brigade (DIA) and the little guys (IWM) do the heavy lifting. Translation: rotation. Traders are hedging into the Fed’s final 2025 call and whatever tea leaves they drop for 2026. Bond bros are nibbling—TLT and IEF green—which screams modest yield pullback via short-covering or a bet on softer vibes ahead. Dollar’s a touch softer versus the euro, another hint of risk-friendly but cautious positioning. Sector scoreboard has banks and health care wearing the crown (XLF, XLV up), tech easing (XLK down), and utilities slightly off—classic “price in expansion, fade the froth” setup. The macro backdrop says inflation expectations are anchored, but long-end yields have been the bogey all week and the crowd’s in a “rate-cut disappointment phase.” If Powell leans risk management and nods at 2026 soft-landing odds, duration and cyclicals can both win. If he shrugs, back-end yields could re-spike and nuke the rotation. AI remains the main character: upbeat chatter into Broadcom earnings, questions around Marvell’s hyperscale mix, and debate on Nvidia’s China track. Oracle’s financing role and even Google’s 2026 AI glasses keep the capex theme hot, but margins and customer concentration are under the microscope. Commodities are mostly chill-to-red (gold, silver, crude easing) while nat gas grinds up. Crypto splits: BTC drifts, ETH pops. Into the close, watch the statement, dots, and presser. If TLT’s bid holds with XLF and IWM strength, that’s soft-landing season. If yields pop and tech bleeds harder, welcome to Fed-day fade city.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 9, 2025 4:05pm (New York)

Tech ekes out gains into the close as defensives and banks lag; gold and crypto rally while oil and gas retreat ahead of the Fed

12/09/2025 04:05 PM • Classic pre-Fed chop. SPY basically did nothing (-0.08%) while QQQ squeaked higher (+0.13%) and small caps flashed a tiny risk-on with IWM (+0.20%). The Dow face-planted (-0.36%) as banks and health care dragged. Tech carried the bags (XLK +0.28%): NVDA perked up on signals chip sales to China might resume (that’s a big TAM swing), AVGO flexed near fresh highs, and MRVL got benched on hyperscale angst. Rates stayed annoying: long end steadied while the belly sagged (TLT up a hair, IEF softer), a “disappointment phase” vibe for the rate-cut dreamers. Dollar firmed a touch (euro dipped), keeping multiples on a leash. Hedgies reached for shinies—GLD ticked up and SLV ripped—while cyclical juice leaked as oil eased and nat gas cratered. Crypto put on the cape: BTC popped ~3.5% and ETH out-sprinted ~7% as beta hunted pre-Fed liquidity. Single-name fireworks: CVS jumped on raised 2025 guide; Google caught fresh EU AI antitrust heat; media went full soap opera with Paramount bidding richer than NFLX for WBD while D.C. side-eye raised deal-risk volatility. ARES got the passive-rocket boost on S&P 500 inclusion. IBM is snapping up Confluent for $11B to fuel a data/AI stack. Boeing closed a supplier deal to tighten the aero supply chain. What matters next: It’s all about the Fed’s message on the long end. Anchor term premiums and QQQ’s leadership can broaden; whiff and multiples stay stuck while defensives and banks feel it. Keep eyes on AI-semi policy headlines, media M&A regulators, precious metals’ hedge bid, and whether small caps can hold gains if yields don’t chill.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 9, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday markets steady ahead of the Fed: Tech edges higher, small caps firm; long-end yields elevated as metals rally and energy softens

12/09/2025 01:34 PM • Markets are doing the pre-Fed shuffle: slight green with a growth tilt and small caps carrying the pump. SPY and QQQ are up a smidge, DIA sags on weak megacap industrial breadth, and IWM keeps strutting. The whole show hinges on the decision this week: cuts are largely expected, but the real spice is any balance sheet talk or asset-buying hints. Rates are the final boss. The curve’s upsloping with the 10Y at 4.14% and 30Y at 4.79%—term premium still sticky, keeping valuation expansion on a short leash. TLT’s a hair green while IEF/SHY are mixed: classic “disappointment phase” vibes for bond bulls. Tech leads quietly. XLK is higher as AI capex stays main character: chatter on U.S. chip sales to China, Oracle as a barometer for debt-fueled AI buildouts, semi suppliers with momentum, plus 2026 AI glasses keeping the hype cycle caffeinated. Financials dip with curve questions; Health Care’s red despite idiosyncratic wins; Energy’s green but crude and the commodity complex aren’t helping—looks stock-specific. The dollar is firmer versus the euro, a headwind for cyclicals and commodities. Metals are shining into the event: GLD climbs, SLV rips harder, signaling both hedge and industrial beta. Meanwhile USO and DBC fade, and UNG dumps on weather/storage angles. Crypto said “policy week be darned” and ripped: BTC near session highs and ETH tagging along—volatility still the house rule. Setup: If the Fed nails the comms and nudges term premia lower, growth and duration can run. Fumble the balance sheet message and sticky long yields keep Financials cramped and high-duration names in check.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 9, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open mixed ahead of the Fed as bonds catch a bid; silver rallies, oil and natural gas slip

12/09/2025 09:34 AM • Powell-palooza week opens with a cautious side-eye: SPY and QQQ drift a hair lower, DIA sneaks green, and IWM eats the early L as rate sensitivity bites. Rotation check: health care, energy, and a smidge of financials catch bids while mega-cap tech cools—textbook “hide and ride” into the Fed. Bonds finally stop faceplanting: TLT and IEF bounce, SHY flat, hinting at stabilization after the worst Treasury week since April. Curve’s still upward sloping (2y 3.56% vs 10y 4.14% and 30y 4.79%), and with term premiums up, the market’s rewarding cash flow today over dreams tomorrow. Inflation expectations anchored in the low-2s keeps the risk party alive, but the bouncer’s checking duration IDs. Commodities: silver flexes harder than gold, while oil droops and nat gas outright stumbles. Dollar firms a touch vs euro; crypto floats slightly higher with BTC above 90k and ETH near 3.1k. AI/semis circus: NVDA vibes improve on talk of limited China sales greenlights, even as chip-smuggling charges remind everyone enforcement risk is real. AVGO enjoys the ATH afterglow; MRVL feels competitive heat; ORCL gets tagged as the AI credit canary. Big Tech heat: EU pokes GOOGL on AI, and Google shoots for 2026 glasses with Warby. Media M&A cage match: PARA swings at WBD while NFLX faces a gnarly regulatory maze. Industrials get a nod as BA closes a key supplier buy; transports’ strength keeps Dow Theory bulls humming. Financials drama with BRK.B succession watch and JPM poaching Combs. Autos split: STLA brings the tiny Topolino EV stateside; TSLA takes a downgrade. Health care steady as LLY and PFE snag China private insurance access. Index reshuffle buzz for CVNA and ARES; MP gets a love-note upgrade; META buys an AI wearable startup. Watch the statement and any balance-sheet tea. If long-end yields chill, tech/small caps run; if bear steepening returns, XLV/XLE/XLF keep the crown.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 8, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks slip into the close as long duration weighs; tech pockets firm up ahead of Fed

12/08/2025 04:04 PM • Tape went full wait-and-see into the bell. SPY, QQQ, and DIA faded as duration did the heavy lifting on the downside, while the small-cap goblins (IWM) snuck out a baby green to tease a breadth turn. Under the hood, XLK kept its chin up even with QQQ slightly red — selective tech strength as the AI hype machine both pumps and trims. Financials and health care slipped, energy sagged. Commodities chilled: gold and silver eased, oil and nat gas rolled, and the whole basket cooled — classic pre-Fed de-risking vibes. The macro boss fight is all about the curve: front end under the long end with 2y ~3.52%, 10y ~4.11%, 30y ~4.76%. Translation: long duration got nudged again (TLT, IEF down; SHY barely moved). Inflation expectations are anchored in the low-2s, so the market’s leaning into a rate cut this week — but the real spice could be the balance sheet chatter. In headlines, AI keeps grabbing the mic: Citi cheers Nvidia’s trajectory, but there’s talk of future AI laggards, plus Google eyeing AI glasses for 2026 and Meta scooping an AI wearable — hardware season incoming. Media drama ramps with Netflix circling WBD assets and a rival bid in the mix — regulatory dice roll ahead. Industrials and health care tossed in catalysts: Boeing closed a supplier buy, a GLP-1 pill posted promising Phase 2 data, and LLY/PFE got a nod on China’s private insurance list. Crypto stayed tame with BTC edging lower and ETH nudging up; EURUSD softened for a dash of dollar strength. Next: Powell, duration, and whether small-cap breadth finally sticks.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 8, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday market steadies lower ahead of Fed as long-end yields, commodities and crypto all ease

12/08/2025 01:34 PM • Classic pre-Fed drift. Tape’s easing, breadth is meh, and everyone’s waiting for Powell to drop the dot-plot mixtape. SPY 682.67 (-3.02), QQQ 623.00 (-2.48), DIA 477.21 (-2.82) — small caps (IWM 250.58) are only slightly softer, so the damage is controlled. Sectors tilt defensive-lower with XLF, XLV, XLE in the red, but Tech (XLK 147.47 vs 146.60) is the lone gym bro curling reps on an otherwise rest day. Long-end vibes still matter: last snapshot had 10Y at 4.11% and 30Y 4.76%, and bonds stay wobbly (TLT, IEF, SHY all softer). That keeps multiples on a short leash unless the Fed gifts an easier liquidity path alongside any rate cut. Commodities say “lower” across the board — GLD and SLV tick down, crude (USO) and nat gas (UNG) cool, broad basket (DBC) fades — helped by a slightly firmer dollar with EURUSD edging off the open. Crypto chills too: BTC ~90,151 and ETH ~3,114, both consolidating inside tight ranges as positioning gets reset into year-end. Narrative fuel: AI remains the main character — chatter on potential ‘AI losers,’ Nvidia-friendly angles, and OpenAI burn keep XLK in the green while the rest yawns. Media is spicy: Netflix circling Warner Bros. Discovery assets, rival bids popping, and antitrust buzz raise timelines and sector vol risk. Todd Combs shifting roles adds to financials’ strategic shuffle, but index impact is minimal today. Playbook: If the Fed leans dovish on both rates and runoff, duration can rip and cyclicals catch a lift; a balanced or sticky-inflation message keeps long yields elevated and growth multiples on defense. Until then, it’s patience, tight ranges, and selective AI dip-snacking.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 8, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Stocks open steady to slightly higher as Fed week begins; long-end yields remain elevated, gold nudges up while oil softens

12/08/2025 09:35 AM • Welcome to Fed Week: the final boss fight of 2025. Tape opens calm-to-green with SPY/QQQ inching up and IWM grabbing the wheel — small caps out front like they found preworkout in the coffee. Under the hood, the real main character is the long end: term premium still flexing, curve less inverted but not chill, and last week’s duration smackdown still echoing. Translation: Powell’s balance sheet chatter might matter more than the widely expected cut. Tech catches a bid on AI plumbing hype as IBM drops an $11B check for Confluent, signaling that the “pipes and data” trade is still where the picks-and-shovels live. Media’s got mega-deal theater with Netflix eyeing WBD’s studio/streaming stack — massive, messy, and headed for the regulatory obstacle course. Passive flow gang gets a new mission as Carvana heads for the S&P 500, which can juice some mechanical demand into rebal. Health care headlines pop with GLP-1 momentum (Structure Therapeutics) and China insurance tailwinds for Lilly/Pfizer, but sector is flat at the open. Financials are a tad soft despite high long-end yields — early noise or a hint that curve weirdness > NIM fantasies. Commodities split: gold nudges up as the “just in case Powell surprises” hedge, while oil and nat gas get slapped lower. Bonds are quiet-to-soft with TLT flat and IEF ticking down — duration still on the struggle bus. Crypto consolidates: BTC flat, ETH modest green. Playbook: watch Powell’s tone on term premium/BS tools, long-end stabilization (or not), and whether small-cap/tech leadership actually sticks through lunch.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 5, 2025 4:08pm (New York)

Stocks edge higher into the close as tech leads and small caps lag; long yields remain above 4%, silver and natural gas rally, Bitcoin slips below $90k

12/05/2025 04:08 PM • Quiet grind higher for the big dogs, sneaky pain everywhere else. SPY eked out +0.18% and DIA nudged +0.20%, but QQQ carried the squad at +0.42% as mega-cap tech kept the scoreboard green. Small caps didn’t get the memo—IWM slipped -0.43% with the cost-of-capital anvil still tied to their ankles. The bond market said “nope” to easy-mode: 10Y parked at 4.06% and 30Y at 4.73%, steep long end keeping duration on a short leash. That zapped TLT/IEF again even as inflation expectations stayed chill (roughly 2.2–2.35% across the curve), feeding the “Fed can cut again” hopium without actually lowering those stubborn long rates. Sector vibes: Tech outperformed (XLK +0.73%) on the same AI-heavy growth drumbeat, while Financials were basically flat and Health Care sagged. Headlines stirred the pot—streaming consolidation chatter (Netflix eyeing WBD assets) spooked media names, AI spending stayed front-page with Meta’s wearable buy and talk of OpenAI burn, and chips caught love with AMAT crowned a top pick. On the consumer tape, Costco softness vs. Dollar General strength screamed K-shaped wallet. Commodities turned up the heat: silver ripped, nat gas sprinted, oil firmed, gold took a breather. Crypto took the L with Bitcoin sliding from ~92k to sub-90k and ETH down more. Into next week: watch the inflation print—benign data plus anchored breakevens could keep the year-end grind alive, but sticky long yields and index reshuffle chatter say keep it selective. Keep one eye on Oracle’s setup and another on the Netflix–WBD regulatory maze. Risk on, but wear a seatbelt.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 5, 2025 4:05pm (New York)

Stocks edge higher into the close as tech leads and small caps lag; long-end yields stay elevated while silver and natural gas rally

12/05/2025 04:05 PM • Risk-on lite into the bell. Big Tech did the heavy lifting again while small caps took a breather. QQQ outran SPY and DIA as XLK flexed on AI/semi/software buzz; IWM slipped red with the long end still barking. Rate backdrop: the latest marks (12/03) keep the curve upward-sloping with 2Y ~3.49%, 10Y ~4.06%, 30Y ~4.73. Positive 2s–10s and long-end >4% = duration drag for bonds and small caps, but anchored breakevens keep quality growth in the driver’s seat as markets lean toward another Fed cut. Bonds bled a little: TLT and IEF down, SHY basically flat. Commodities mixed but lively—gold eased, silver ripped, crude firmed, and nat gas spiked on winter/storage chatter. Crypto cooled off from the open with both BTC and ETH giving back some heat. The storylines matched the tape. AI remained the main character: Google teamed with Replit, Salesforce talked up a powerful pipeline, AMAT got the nod for DRAM/foundry upcycles, while Microsoft’s quota tweaks dinged sentiment and Snowflake’s beat couldn’t keep the stoke after a big run. Media M&A stole headlines as Netflix reportedly pushes to combine with WBD’s studio/Max, a regulatory obstacle course that had investors side-eyeing cash bids. Into next week: the Fed decision looms with cuts back on the table, S&P 500 rebal chatter (MRVL/CVNA watch) could spark flows, and Oracle’s print is the next AI capex vibe check. With 10Y north of 4% and 30Y nearer 4.7%, the long end still calls the shots on factor leadership. Stay nimble, respect duration, ride the mega-cap bid—until the curve says otherwise.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 5, 2025 1:37pm (New York)

Midday market steadies: Tech leads, small caps lag as yields firm and commodities catch a bid

12/05/2025 01:37 PM • Lunch tape is vibing green-but-picky. Big Tech’s doing the heavy lifting: QQQ edges higher while SPY inches up and DIA tags along. Small caps? IWM is the designated bag holder, bleeding a touch and reminding everyone breadth still stinks. Rates are the boss today—TLT, IEF, SHY all softer as yields firm and the curve stays positively sloped. That’s soft-landing energy: not hot enough to scare stocks, not cool enough to bail out duration. Commodities are where the fireworks live—silver ripping, oil and nat gas catching a serious bid, gold modestly green, and the broad basket up. Crypto cooled off after a heater: BTC and ETH sit below their opens as traders reassess sizing after the run. Macro mix is messy but constructive: a delayed inflation read stuck near ~3% keeps rate-cut chatter alive for the next Fed meeting, while jobless claims at a three-year low say the labor market still refuses to crack. Net result: quality growth on top, defensives dragging (healthcare, utilities), financials steady. Micro headlines add spice: Netflix emerging as lead bidder for Warner Bros. Discovery’s assets (~$83B) has the street nervous on execution; AI megacaps stay in the spotlight with chatter around Microsoft, Google’s enterprise coding tie-up, Meta tightening spend, and semi-cap tailwinds for equipment. Retail and airlines toss mixed signals, and Oracle’s print next week is the next boss fight. Bonus volatility watch: S&P 500 committee could drop a rebalance grenade after the close. Eyes on flows and follow-through into the afternoon.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 5, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Stocks edge higher at the open as yields steady; gold rallies, crypto softens ahead of key inflation read

12/05/2025 09:35 AM • Risk-on with training wheels. SPY and QQQ open a notch higher, DIA tags along, but IWM trips again—large caps feast while small caps fast. Yields are steady, keeping the 10Y around the 4% neighborhood and letting multiples breathe. Gold is strutting, crypto is yawning, and the whole tape is bracing for today’s inflation print and the Fed’s year-end mic drop. Tech (XLK) still wears the crown as AI pipes get louder (enterprise demand buzz) and semi-cap gear gets love; investors want real AI dollars, not just vibes. Healthcare (XLV) joins the move, while Financials (XLF) ease as the market reruns the NIM math. Energy (XLE) is meh with oil weighed down by ample supply and OPEC+ noise. Media consolidation drama is the single-name spice: Netflix reportedly front-running a grab for big Warner Bros. Discovery assets—potentially landscape-shifting, but investor reactions look wary on price and payback. On the consumer tape, trade-down stays meta: Dollar Tree beat and Dollar General gained share, while Costco cooled as sales decelerated. Payments got a contrarian nod (Visa, Toast), but SoFi ate a selloff after a $1.5B stock raise—beta tax in effect. Bonds are flat-to-slightly green (TLT/IEF/SHY), waiting on the data drop. GLD/SLV bid as hedges go on; USO drifts, UNG pops on weather, DBC flat. EURUSD steady backdrop; BTCUSD and ETHUSD softer, digesting gains. Playbook: cooler inflation = risk and duration rip; hotter = repricing party. Watch breadth and small-cap participation for real durability.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 4, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Small caps lead while megacaps tread water; bonds soften and commodities firm ahead of key inflation print

12/04/2025 04:04 PM • Rotation station. IWM laced up rocket boots while QQQ caught its breath, and SPY squeaked green as the market broadened beneath the hood. Tech and financials quietly carried the torch; health care face-planted; energy ETF ticked down even as crude and nat gas firmed. Bonds got tapped across the curve with yields inching up and the term structure still tilted higher—classic pre-inflation jitters. Commodities said “we lift”: oil and gas up, broad basket up, but silver cooled off after record-level hype earlier this week. Crypto stayed spicy with Bitcoin hanging above 92k and ETH easing—elevated, but consolidating. AI headlines kept the servers humming: AWS rolled fresh chips and hugged Nvidia tighter, while Marvell moved on Celestial AI to juice accelerated networking—the infra arms race isn’t slowing, even if software monetization is staggered (Salesforce strong talk, Snowflake meh on decel). Financials rode the small-cap and curve vibes, consistent with a “no-hire, no-fire” labor backdrop and anchored long-run inflation expectations. All eyes on Friday’s inflation print—the tape is priced for a soft-landing encore. A cool number likely boosts duration and keeps the small-cap catch-up party alive. A hot surprise re-prices the front end and dunks the long-duration stuff, especially rate-sensitive software. After that, the Fed’s year-end meeting: the street flirted with a quarter-cut on soft hiring, but Friday decides the vibe. For now, breadth > bloat. Keep an eye on OPEC+ noise, Venezuela headlines, and silver tourist flows while crypto remains the macro wild card.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 4, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday markets: Small caps lead while bonds soften; commodities mixed as oil firms and silver retreats

12/04/2025 01:33 PM • Midday tape says risk-on… but keep the seatbelt clicked. Small caps are doing cardio with IWM ripping while SPY and DIA barely jog higher. QQQ is the lone wallflower, down a hair as mega-cap tech digests a week of AI chest-thumping. Sector rotation screams cyclical: XLF and XLK firm, XLV gets benched, XLE flat-ish while crude flexes. Rates are the bouncer—long end firmer, curve upright from 2s to 30s, real yields positive. Translation: TLT/IEF red and duration isn’t your friend unless growth really rolls over. Commodities split the bill: oil up, gold sips, silver spills its drink after a big run. Crypto cools intraday after earlier strength—still in “healthy consolidation” mode. Macro tea leaves are messy but market-friendly: ADP shows private job losses again, claims hit a three-year low around Thanksgiving, ISM services still expanding with easing price pressure. Traders are leaning into the “dovish” read—whispers of a quarter-point Fed cut as soon as next week—just as real yields stay sticky. That combo fuels the small-cap squeeze while keeping long bonds in time-out. Stock stories keep the AI debate spicy: Salesforce hyped the pipeline, Snowflake beat but product growth slowed, Oracle nerves into prints, Microsoft headlines split between OpenAI safety net and sales execution pressure, Meta trimming metaverse burn bolstered sentiment. Marvell popped on a rosy outlook plus a Celestial AI deal; Applied Materials got the nod as a cycle winner. Elsewhere, Boeing’s prior surge lifted spirits, dollar stores outdrove Costco’s slowdown, and media names wobbled on WBD deal chatter. Into the afternoon: Does IWM leadership hold, do tech internals firm, and do long yields chill? If rates keep grinding up, duration and high-multiple names could feel it. Watch energy inventories and value-hunting consumers into year-end.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 4, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open slightly higher as claims hit 3-year low; yields steady, mega-cap tech and media headlines in focus

12/04/2025 09:33 AM • Soft flex at the bell: indexes tiptoe higher as the labor market does a “no-hire, no-fire” routine and the long end of the curve keeps its foot on the valuation scale. SPY and QQQ drift green, DIA follows, but IWM snoozes—classic quality-growth bid when the 10-year hangs near 4.09% and the 30-year lounges at 4.74%. Rate-cut hopium just met reality check: claims at a three-year low keep recession bears on mute while keeping duration risk loud. Tech and media own the headlines. Media M&A buzzed as bids for WBD hit the table and chatter crowned NFLX and PARA as favorites—problem is, wallets screamed, and both suitors got dunked earlier on cash concerns. In AI/software land: CRM thumped the table on an AI-loaded pipeline, but SNOW’s decelerating product growth said the bar’s high. MRVL tried the fast lane, snapping up Celestial AI for up to $5.5B to bulk up its data-center plumbing. MSFT got shade on AI sales pacing, with dip-bulls calling “opportunity.” CRWD flexed tighter with AWS, keeping the cloud-security flywheel spinning. Industrials mixed: BA lifted spirits with delivery optimism; DAL trimmed Q4 on a shutdown hit but demand still hums. BMY stayed perky on Alzheimer’s hopes. META ate EU antitrust heat—platform risk never sleeps. Bonds eased (TLT red) as risk turned faintly on. Metals faded (silver gives back some moon), oil flat, nat gas softer. Euro edges up; crypto cools after a two-week pop. Playbook: ride mega-cap momentum while respecting the long-end boss fight; watch media deal tape, AI capex, and any curve lurch into the next Fed move.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 3, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Cyclicals lead late-day advance as banks and small caps outperform; bonds firm, energy lags despite oil uptick

12/03/2025 04:03 PM • Risk-on into the bell. Cyclicals grabbed the stick and never let go: SPY +0.33%, DIA +0.88% (Boeing jet fuel), and small caps went full send with IWM +1.82%. QQQ still green (+0.25%) but lagged the muscle trade. Under the hood, banks were the MVPs as XLF +1.33% rode chilled rate vol and a friendlier curve, while tech tiptoed (XLK +0.24%) and health care kept grinding (XLV +0.47%). Energy face-planted (XLE −0.31%) even with oil and gas firmer (USO +0.67%, UNG +3.42%)—OPEC+ supply creep kept the party capped. Bonds caught a bid across the curve (TLT +0.27%) with the 10Y hanging near 4.09%; 2s/10s modestly positive = no panic, just steady-as-she-goes. Macro was a tasty two-piece: ADP showed private payrolls shrinking again (hiring cools), but ISM services extended expansion with easing prices—soft landing vibes. Tariff cloud still hovering; Supreme Court ruling looming and Treasury hinting backup plans. Watch funding plumbing too in case the Fed has to grab a wrench. Abroad, BOJ jawboned a possible hike—could tug flows and the yen. AI complex stayed noisy: Marvell popped on an upbeat guide and a splashy Celestial AI buy; AWS flexed new in-house chips while cozying up further to Nvidia. Microsoft had AI quota chatter but dipters circled. Industrials stole the show—Boeing teased higher 737/787 deliveries and better 2026 cash, juicing the Dow. Consumers split: Dollar Tree beat on trade-down traffic while Macy’s cooled after a run. Media M&A roulette spun with Netflix and Paramount circling WBD—buyers skittish on cash-heavy talk. Crypto rotation continued: ETH ripped while BTC napped. Next up: payrolls, tariffs, funding-facility smoke signals, BOJ, and AI monetization checks.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 3, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday market: Small caps and banks lead while energy lags; bonds firmer, crypto mixed

12/03/2025 01:34 PM • Midday tape says breadth unlocked. Small caps are doing victory laps and financials are the engine room, while energy is the kid jogging in from outfield. Bonds are firm, yields a touch lower, and that’s giving SPY, DIA, and especially IWM some extra juice. Macro is a two-speed mixtape: ADP shows softer private payrolls (Fed-friendly), but ISM services keeps expanding. Manufacturing still snoozing, with tariff noise lurking as the Supreme Court looms. BOJ hike chatter and U.S. funding-plumbing jitters are the wild cards that could yank rates around. Tech is steady-green, not manic. AI remains the headline hog: Marvell buying Celestial AI with upbeat guide, Amazon rolling fresh AI chips and cozying up to Nvidia, and everyone noting Big Tech’s capex bonfire—bullish for the build-out, trickier for multiples. Industrials are having a day with Boeing leading on better cash flow and delivery outlooks—pure cyclical sauce that also lifts the Dow. Energy lags despite crude and nat gas bouncing; OPEC+ unwind vibes keep a ceiling on XLE enthusiasm. Metals cool off after a heater—gold and silver easing into this risk-on mood. Crypto is mixed: BTC slightly red, ETH green, with Vanguard opening the door to third-party crypto ETFs, a small but notable access upgrade. Into the afternoon, watch tariffs, funding-market stress, and BOJ signals. If yields stay anchored and services hum, the small-cap/financial rotation can keep carrying the baton while AI headlines steer tech positioning.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 3, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open mixed as bonds firm; soft private payrolls and steady inflation expectations frame the morning tone

12/03/2025 09:34 AM • Tape opens like a seesaw: big boys wobble while the little guys sprint. SPY is a hair under yesterday, QQQ leaks as mega-cap tech leadership cools, and DIA is basically napping. IWM shows up with energy, signaling rotation down-cap as traders sniff a softer macro glide path. Why? Bonds got the memo: TLT and IEF are bid with the 10Y parked near 4.09% and inflation expectations steady. Private payrolls slipped again (third time in four months), bolstering the “Fed can chill later” narrative. Curve’s up through the long end, and duration is wearing the crown at the open. Sector scorecard says Financials and Health Care on the front foot, Tech slightly soggy, Energy a touch green despite oil stuck in neutral. Gold shines with GLD up, silver lags, crude (USO) flat, nat gas (UNG) perking on seasonal vibes. Crypto’s split: BTC drifts under its open while ETH edges higher — flows and liquidity still driving. Micro headlines add spice: Boeing optimism on 737/787 deliveries keeps aerospace sentiment aloft; retail is bifurcated with Dollar Tree’s value pitch winning while Macy’s cools after a strong run. AI buildout remains a full-contact sport: Marvell buying Celestial AI, Nvidia cozying with Synopsys, and Amazon pounding the table on custom silicon and cloud capacity. But whispers of an “AI air pocket” into next year keep froth in check. Watch Salesforce after the bell for proof that AI features can actually monetize. Big picture: softer labor + anchored inflation = bond bid, small-cap pop, defensive tilt. Next catalysts: funding-market chatter, upcoming labor/price prints, and whether software can re-grab the narrative.

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