State of Market Reports (Page 4)

State of Maket Reports Page 4 of 7 • 171 articles

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 25, 2025 9:35am (New York)

At the Open: Seasonal tailwinds meet firm macro as equities lean higher into year-end

12/25/2025 09:35 AM • Jingle bells, risk sells—up. We’re opening the final stretch with the full Santa tailwind and a macro backdrop that’s basically a weighted blanket. Curve’s upright and civilized (2Y 3.44%, 10Y 4.17%, 30Y 4.84%), inflation expectations gliding in the low-2s out the curve, and the VIX dozing near year lows. That’s multiple support plus lower discount-rate drama—aka runway for equities after SPY kissed records into Christmas week. Bonds are behaving, vol is muted, and the soft-landing playlist is still on repeat: Q3 GDP at 4.3% SAAR and jobless claims grinding lower keep the consumer sturdy. Sector tone fits the script: XLF catching love on a more normal curve, XLK still humming on AI capex, XLV calmly compounding, energy/utility proxy modestly green. Commodities are mixed: gold cooled (-0.41%) while silver flexed (+0.60%)—classic late-run divergence to watch. Crude is range-bound, nat gas got sat down (-3.9%). Crypto’s a tad softer into the open (BTC/ETH small red), holiday liquidity vibes. Mega-cap narrative still rules: Nvidia licensing moves with Groq feed the AI arms race; Alphabet shopping for data-center power; ServiceNow buying Armis for an “AI control tower.” Meanwhile, Tesla juggles scrutiny vs. robotaxi dreams, Nike’s insider-buy chatter percolates, Honeywell eats a $470M hit and guides down, Huntington Ingalls lands Navy work, and Paramount-WBD whispers escalate with a hefty financing backstop. What matters next: yields breaking higher (bad for long duration) vs. grinding lower (multiple juice), any wobble in claims, the dollar’s potential bounce crimping commodities, and whether metals consolidate or rip again. Santa’s still steering risk-on—just keep eyes on the curve and the power bill for AI.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 24, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks extend holiday climb into Christmas Eve; bonds firm, metals diverge, dollar steadies

12/24/2025 04:03 PM • Christmas Eve close came wrapped in green. SPY +0.34%, QQQ +0.29%, DIA +0.57% leading the sleigh, and IWM +0.25%—seasonal “Santa rally” lore alive as the S&P 500 notched a Christmas Eve record. Under the tree: calm macro and cooperative bonds. Yields sat easy with 2y ~3.44%, 10y ~4.17%, and a positive 2s/10s slope flashing soft-landing vibes. That pairs with a 4.3% Q3 GDP print and falling jobless claims—growth sturdy, layoffs scarce, and inflation expectations anchored near low-2s beyond the short term. Sectors: tech edged up (XLK +0.25%) as ServiceNow dropped $7.75B on Armis to bulk up AI/cyber—enterprise spend and security stacks staying hot. Financials (XLF +0.51%) liked the curve setup, health care (XLV +0.50%) rode weight-loss drug buzz, and energy (XLE +0.47%) climbed even with oil a touch soft. Vol gauges hovered near cycle lows, letting the tape grind without drama. Rates crew stayed jolly: TLT +0.59%, IEF +0.25%, SHY +0.07%. Metals split the difference—GLD -0.41% cooling after a heater while SLV +0.60% shined. USO -0.16% was basically flat, and UNG -3.91% reminded everyone gas still moves like a rollercoaster. Single-name chatter: Honeywell flagged a $470M Flexjet settlement and trimmed outlook—coal in the industrial stocking. Tesla’s back in the spotlight with a Model 3 door probe while still pitching robotaxis. Dollar steadied (euro slipped), and crypto ticked modestly green—BTC and ETH drifting, not sprinting. Next up: watch follow-through on Santa into the first days of January, thin-liquidity mood swings, the next jobless claims, long-end behavior via TLT, and whether AI/cyber M&A keeps fueling tech sentiment.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 24, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Stocks grind higher into Christmas Eve; records in sight as bonds firm and metals cool

12/24/2025 01:33 PM • Christmas Eve tape is in full Santa mode. Thin liquidity, but stonks are levitating: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all green with breadth improving. Bonds are the quiet MVP—TLT/IEF up, 10Y anchored near 4.17%—rate vol snoozing and multiples getting room to breathe. Seasonality elves whisper Dec 26 is historically a winner, so the slow grind has backup from the calendar. Under the tree: AI power plays. Alphabet drops $4.75B on Intersect to sock away electricity for data centers—energy capacity is the new moat. ServiceNow spends $7.75B on Armis to build an AI “control tower.” Semis chatter says Nvidia is rumbling again with 2026 model/data center catalysts—still the poster child of the compute buildout. Health care flex: Novo Nordisk lands the first oral weight-loss drug, sparking a relief rally and putting restaurants/beverages/staples on watch. Financials drift up with friendlier rates. Energy is mixed—USO a hair softer while the XLE bucket prints a slight win. Precious metals cool off: GLD takes a breather after the surge while SLV shines. Macro backdrop still screams soft-landing: GDP strong, jobless claims low, and long-run inflation expectations hovering near pre-2020 vibes (~2.3–2.4%). But don’t nap on surprise risk—some are prepping for a second inflation wave and policy curveballs, even as VIX dozes. FX/crypto calm: EURUSD near 1.177 with dollar stabilization chatter. Bitcoin/Ether steady. Playbook: respect the creep higher, watch post-Christmas breadth, and track AI’s real bottleneck—power. Calm bonds + anchored inflation = holiday melt-up… until it isn’t.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 24, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open little changed into the holiday stretch as bonds firm; metals mixed and the dollar steady

12/24/2025 09:34 AM • Market hit the snooze button into the holiday. SPY, QQQ, and DIA opened basically flat while bonds caught a small bid—rate vol’s chill, yields nudged lower, but the long end’s still doing big-uncle energy (2Y 3.44%, 10Y 4.17%, 30Y 4.84%). Macro stayed sturdy: jobless claims below last year and that delayed Q3 GDP print at 4.3% screams consumer still swiping. Inflation expectations anchored (1y 3.20%, 5y 2.42%, 10y 2.34%), so the vibe is growth resilient, inflation decelerating, policy steady-as-she-goes. Sector check: financials inch green as a positively sloped curve props net interest margins; tech eases with AI capex hangover and monetization questions. M&A says the AI land grab is live—ServiceNow dropping $7.75B on Armis to weld cyber into AI workflows, and Alphabet securing data-center power signals energy is the new bottleneck. Meta chatter about another “efficiency” lap lingers, while Nvidia hype stays a wildcard if leadership re-ignites into 2026. Industrials get a tiny headwind after Honeywell’s Flexjet settlement and outlook trim. Small caps fade as the 30Y at 4.84% keeps financing real. Commodities split: gold cools after a heater, silver shines, crude firms, natural gas gets body-slammed. Dollar steady; that puts a lid on metal moonshots. Crypto’s mixed—BTC a hair green, ETH a touch red—matching the calm, catalyst-light tape. Into the holiday: thinner liquidity, headline whips. If long-end yields behave and rate vol stays sleepy, Santa’s still in play. Watch banks for follow-through, tech for AI spend discipline, GLP-1 headlines in health care, and the dollar vs. metals tug-of-war.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 23, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks edge higher into the holiday break as metals surge and small caps lag; bonds steady, dollar softens

12/23/2025 04:04 PM • Calm tape, green drift. Mega-caps did their holiday cardio while small caps slipped on an icy curb. SPY +0.45%, QQQ +0.48%, DIA barely up, and IWM faceplanted -0.60%—quality and cashflow still king. Under the hood, tech and fins wore the hat; health care sagged a touch. AI remained the main character as Alphabet locked down power via Intersect and ServiceNow snapped up Armis—infra and cyber feeding the model beast. Macro stayed soft-landing coded: long-end yields still beefy (10Y 4.16%, 30Y 4.82% from Dec 19 snapshot) but rate vol eased and TLT inched higher. Inflation expectations cooled into the policy window (5Y ~2.42%, 10Y ~2.34%), and a delayed GDP pop to 4.3% annualized for Q3 shouted consumer resilience. Elsewhere, metals stole the show—gold and silver ripped for a second day as the dollar softened. GLD +1.31%, SLV +3.79%—portfolio armor finding holiday buyers. Energy firmed: oil up, and nat gas went turbo with UNG +8.9% on weather/supply fireworks. Crypto? Took a power nap despite the risk-on vibe. Tape risk is less about fireworks and more about complacency—fear gauge snoozing, small caps reminding you higher financing still bites. Watch for: Santa follow-through in a thin, holiday liquidity maze; whether the long end chills or re-accelerates; metals momentum versus dollar “golden cross” chatter; and more AI land-grab M&A to secure power, data, and security. Quiet grind, selective risk. Don’t confuse calm with safety.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 23, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Stocks edge higher at midday as metals surge; yields steady and curve re-steepens

12/23/2025 01:34 PM • Holiday tape but not sleepy: large caps are drifting up while small caps trip over their laces. SPY +0.4% and QQQ +0.3% carry the sled, DIA +0.3% tags along, and IWM is the Grinch at -0.4%. Macro gas in the tank: a delayed 4.3% Q3 GDP print says the consumer still swipes, even if vibes and surveys disagree. Inflation expectations look Goldilocks—1-year 3.20% but 5- and 10-year anchored at 2.42% and 2.34%—so the market’s cool with the destination even if the road’s bumpy. Rates are the main character: 2Y ~3.48%, 10Y ~4.16%, 30Y ~4.82%. That de-inversion plus a fat long-end premium is a quiet steepener—nice for big, cash-flow tanks and financials, rougher for the rate-sensitive small fry. TLT sneaks green while IEF/SHY fade, consistent with the curve shift. Metals are the party: GLD +0.8% and SLV +3% ripping new highs for a second day, with UNG blasting +6.6% and USO +0.6%. DBC confirms a broad commodity bid. Tech stays perky (XLK green) with AI/security buzz after ServiceNow’s $7.75B Armis snag, while XLF gets a modest steepener tailwind. Health care’s mixed even with Novo’s oral weight-loss approval headline. Tesla chatter: unit sales meh, robotaxi hopium hot—classic leader playbook. FX is chill (EURUSD flat). Crypto is mixed: BTC flat, ETH -1.5% as year-end liquidity thins. Watch for: breadth (does IWM wake up), the 10Y camped near 4.16%, and whether metals keep flexing. Santa rally still on the table, but the re-steepener is picking winners and losers in real time.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 22, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks firm into the close as small caps lead; gold jumps, oil climbs, bonds ease

12/22/2025 04:03 PM • Santa warmed up the sleigh and handed the reins to small caps. SPY drifted +0.6%, QQQ lagged but green, and IWM ripped +1.1% to close out a holiday-lite session with broadening breadth. Financials led the charge as the long end stayed sturdy; XLF popped while tech (XLK) and health care (XLV) did polite golf claps. Energy stocks were the odd one out—XLE slipped even as oil proxies rose. Bonds eased again: TLT, IEF, SHY all a touch softer with the curve still sloping up from 5s to 30s (10Y ~4.12%, 30Y ~4.80 from 12/18). That bear-steepening vibe helps banks but keeps duration on a short leash. The shiny stuff stole the show: GLD and SLV went full sparkle with 2%+ gains as the “debasement trade” narrative caught a tailwind. USO firmed; nat gas face-planted. Dollar softened vs euro intraday even as some chatter flagged a potential USD “golden cross” down the road—translation: FX remains a swing factor. Crypto took a cool-down lap with BTC and ETH a bit softer. On single-name hype, Nike stayed in the chat with mixed takes (top-pick calls vs lingering worries). AI complex still loud: one bull called NVDA “unusually cheap,” and Alphabet grabbed Intersect to lock in data center power—signal that AI compute isn’t slowing, power permitting. Industrials showed pulse via FedEx execution, while defense/space flexed (HII, RKLB, ASTS). Honeywell hit a pothole on a big settlement and trimmed outlook. Big picture: small-cap leadership + tamer bond vol keeps the Santa narrative intact—just watch rates vol, inflation noise, and any dollar resurgence to avoid getting snowed under in thin holiday liquidity.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 22, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Stocks grind higher into the holiday week as small caps lead; gold shines, utilities lag

12/22/2025 01:34 PM • Holiday week risk-on vibes engaged. Broad tape grinding higher with small caps doing the heavy lifting: SPY, QQQ, and DIA are green, but IWM is the one leaving footprints in the snow. That’s classic “rotate beyond mega-cap” energy as traders chase cyclicals into year-end. Financials firm up, tech participates without hogging the spotlight, health care drifts higher, and utilities take a nap—pure pro-cyclical tone. Rates backdrop is friendly-ish: the curve stays positively sloped from 2s to 10s and out to 30s, but duration ETFs (TLT/IEF/SHY) are a touch soft, lining up with a small giveback in bonds. Inflation expectations are anchored in the low-to-mid 2s across the curve, though NY Fed’s Williams threw a flag on November CPI’s “technical factors,” so don’t crown the doves yet. Macro under-the-hood still resilient—GDP holding up and existing home sales thawing for a third straight month. Gold and silver are shining as the hedge trade revives; crude’s firmer while nat gas gets clipped. Dollar’s softer vs. euro, which usually greases the risk wheels. Headlines keep the tape spicy: HII rockets on a Navy frigate win, HON stumbles on a $470M legal hit and trimmed outlook, FDX talks better profits, and AI infra stays the main character—Micron’s recent blowout fuels chatter, NVDA remains the battleground, and ORCL catches a TikTok-cloud tailwind. Weed names pop on reclass buzz, and RKLB surges on government-contract momentum. Setup into the final stretch: breadth improving, long end contained, and seasonal optimism alive—just keep a leash on exposure if rates pop or flows flip.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 22, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open higher into holiday week as tech leads, gold surges, and yields stay above 4% on the 10-year

12/22/2025 09:33 AM • Holiday tape came out of the gate throwing confetti. SPY +0.47%, QQQ +0.69%, DIA +0.20%, and the small-cap gremlins flexing with IWM +0.60%—seasonal Santa energy is alive. Tech’s steering the sleigh: XLK +0.85% as AI/data-center chatter and a “Micron had an Nvidia moment” vibe keep semis and cloud in pole position. Under the hood, long rates aren’t quitting: 10-year ~4.12%, 30-year ~4.80%, and a positively sloped 2s/10s (~+66 bps). NY Fed’s Williams flagged “technical factors” softening CPI, so nobody’s popping victory champagne on inflation just yet. Near-term inflation expectations ~3.2% drift down toward ~2.3% at 10 years—good enough for growth… as long as prints don’t reheat. Sector rotation is textbook: healthcare and energy wobble at the open (XLV red, XLE −1% even with USO +2%—equity/commodity decoupling), financials flat-ish with net interest vibes unchanged. Duration takes a tiny bruise (TLT/IEF down small), front end anchored (SHY flat). The shiny stuff stole the headlines: GLD +2% and SLV +2.7% on “debasement/hedge me” flow, helped by a softer dollar (EURUSD firmer). Oil’s got a modest geopolitical premium, nat gas does nat gas things lower. Crypto’s in risk-on mode too: BTC and ETH green with equities. Big picture: constructive, not euphoric. Tech leading, breadth improving, metals hedging, dollar softer, bonds steady-to-soft as 4%+ on the 10-year caps the multiple froth. Watch for follow-through in chips/cloud, small-cap breadth into year-end, and whether yields stay caged near 4.1–4.2%. A clean glide path keeps the rally cruising; a hot data surprise or holiday-flow air pocket could jar the sleigh.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 19, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Tech leads late-week advance as yields hold firm; silver and oil climb, long bonds slip

12/19/2025 04:03 PM • Big-cap tech put the market in a headlock into the close. QQQ ripped while SPY cruised and small caps tagged along; the Dow just did cardio. XLK torched the scoreboard as the AI supply chain noise kept bulls pressing, with Micron’s upbeat AI-memory vibes still echoing and chatter that Nvidia doesn’t look expensive stoking dip buys. Financials caught a bid on a curve that’s less upside-down at the front, but make no mistake: long-end yields stayed spicy (10Y ~4.16%, 30Y ~4.83%), which is why long bonds ate dirt and TLT/IEF slid. That’s your regime: growth up, duration down. Energy flubbed the bag even with crude firmer—USO green, XLE red—classic equity/oil divergence. Health care was steady as DC jawboning on drug pricing kept policy risk front and center. Metals showed teeth: silver outran gold like it stole something, while broader commodities firmed. FX was a shrug with EURUSD flat-ish. Crypto kept the fireworks going—BTC hovering near 88k and ETH teasing 3k—helped by fresh Street hopium about ETF-driven flows next year. Macro side quest: NY Fed’s Williams said CPI got wonky from “technical factors,” so don’t victory lap disinflation just yet. Housing data is thawing and consumer vibes are still weird, which fits the slow-grind, soft-landing script. Playbook into year-end: watch the long end of the curve—yields up keeps pressure on bonds and can wobble long-duration, yields down = more risk-on fuel. Keep one eye on AI capex follow-through and DC headlines (cannabis, drug pricing).

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 19, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday market check: Tech leads a broad equity bid as rates firm; energy lags while gold, silver, and oil advance

12/19/2025 01:33 PM • Risk-on vibes at lunch. Tech is carrying the squad with QQQ ripping about +1.3% while SPY cruises +0.6% and small caps (IWM +1.0%) show real breadth. XLK is the throttle—semis/AI back in the driver’s seat on Micron cheer and that “Nvidia moment” chatter. Financials (XLF) are green too as the curve beyond the front end stays positive; not a rocket, but a steady climb. Health care (XLV) participates with a side of headline risk as DC drug-pricing talk swirls. Only laggard: energy (XLE) in the red even with crude proxies firmer—idiosyncratic drags plus Venezuela noise keeping traders jumpy. Bonds? Ouch. Duration is taking a lap—TLT, IEF, SHY all red as yields firm. Last check had 2Y ~3.49% vs 10Y ~4.16% (Dec 17), so the slope helps cyclicals but squeezes long-duration valuations when rates tick up. Fed’s Williams reminded everyone CPI had “technical” help, so don’t get comfy—any hot print can flip the script fast. Commodities are shining: SLV pops, GLD steady green, USO grinding higher. Crypto is mixed-to-firm with BTC chilling near 87k while ETH outperforms into year-end positioning. Single-stock/theme buzz: Alphabet throne-watch fuels mega-cap swagger; Oracle gets TikTok cloud tailwinds vs capex hand-wringing; Nike debate rages (margin path vs turnaround innings); FedEx read-throughs keep industrials hopeful. Cannabis names rode policy whispers Thursday. Into the close: watch semis for follow-through, drug-pricing headlines for whips in XLV, yields for any late-day rug, and energy for Venezuela-flavored spikes. Thin year-end liquidity can turn jogs into sprints—keep helmets on.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 19, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open firmer as bonds slip; traders parse Fed signals and oil headlines

12/19/2025 09:33 AM • Green lights to start the holiday lap. Big indexes tick up with SPY nudging highs, QQQ flexing harder, and IWM tagging along—breadth not terrible for once. Under the hood, Tech is steering the bus while Financials catch a small tailwind from firmer yields. Bonds faceplanted at the bell (TLT/IEF/SHY red), so rates did a morning push-up. Commodities are mixed: silver shines, crude wakes up on geopolitics, gold yawns. Crypto? Still doing crypto things, both BTC and ETH up versus their opens. The macro spice: Fed-speak split-screen. NY Fed’s Williams says November CPI had “technical” quirks that might’ve flattered the downside surprise—translation: cool it with the confetti. Meanwhile, Waller tees up a glide path where inflation fades over the next 3–4 months and policy can ease at a moderate pace. Markets are threading that needle: disinflation vibes, but not in a straight line, and yields react to every syllable. Narrative fuel: Micron’s AI buzz keeping semis peppy, though everyone remembers AI buildouts need real financing. FedEx talked up industrial heartbeat after its beat—nice read-through for cyclicals. Energy’s tug-of-war persists: oversupply blues all week, but today’s oil bounce gets a headline assist. Consumer corners are noisy (Nike cleanup, Lululemon activism), and cannabis was spicy Thursday on reschedule chatter. What matters next: do yields chill after the bond ETF dump? Does tech leadership broaden to small caps and cyclicals, or revert to megacap-only? Does crude’s bounce stick? Holiday liquidity can turn tiny ripples into waves, so keep helmets on. For now, risk-on with a side of rate-watch.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 18, 2025 4:09pm (New York)

Stocks close higher as tech leads; bonds bid with long-end yields above 4%

12/18/2025 04:09 PM • Santa brought duration and GPUs. Equities closed green across the board with QQQ out front, SPY cruising, DIA edging up, and IWM adding real breadth. Tech carried the flag (XLK up) after Micron’s upbeat print rekindled AI appetite, while financials (XLF) took a breather as traders sold strength. Energy (XLE) climbed even with oil and gas ETFs softer—positioning > barrels today. Rates hugged the cool-inflation narrative: Treasurys rallied from front to back (TLT, IEF, SHY all higher). The curve stays upward sloping—2Y 3.48%, 5Y 3.69%, 10Y 4.15%, 30Y 4.82%—so the long end still wears the 4-handle and keeps growth multiples honest, but anchored breakevens kept buyers comfortable. Metals and broad commodities faded (GLD, SLV, DBC lower) alongside USO and UNG. EURUSD slipped, and crypto took a timeout with BTCUSD and ETHUSD red despite the equity risk-on. Fed vibes: Waller talking cooling inflation and room for a moderate cuts path, while Bostic keeps the caution tape in view. Translation: glide path, not victory lap. AI remains the main questline—Micron’s beat helped semis, but funding chatter around data centers and earlier Oracle noise remind everyone leverage matters; rebounds in CoreWeave/Nebius headlines show how fast sentiment flips. Healthcare (XLV) stayed steady with fresh weight-loss drug filings in the mix. Into year-end, flows favor upside if inflation keeps cooperating. Watch the next prints, the Fed soundboard, AI capex clarity, energy supply/demand, cannabis policy chatter, and whether IWM keeps leading breadth. Path of least resistance: up, with helmets on—2026 looks like a stock picker’s arena.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 18, 2025 4:05pm (New York)

Tech-led advance lifts major U.S. equity benchmarks into the close as yields steady and energy, metals lag

12/18/2025 04:05 PM • Big-cap tech put the market on its back and marched it into the close. QQQ ripped about 1.5% and XLK matched the vibe, while SPY cruised +0.8%. Small caps (IWM) chipped in +0.6%, but the Dow (DIA) barely moved (+0.1%)—boomers napped while the chips danced. Under the hood it was growth + defensives: utilities caught a bid, financials lagged. Why? Yields stayed anchored and duration liked it—bond ETFs firmed as the 10-year sits near 4.15% (latest 12/16 read). That soft-landing-in-theory, show-me-inflation-in-practice setup kept risk appetite alive without blowing out rates. The news hook: AI supply chain energy. Reports praised Micron’s results and outlook—call it an “Nvidia moment” lite—sparking a semi-led tech pop even as some coverage warned the next real AI catalyst may be a 2026 story. There’s still debate over heavy, debt-fueled data-center capex, but today the tape said: chips first, questions later. Elsewhere, commodities got body-slammed. Oil (USO) and nat gas (UNG) fell, silver (SLV) slid harder than gold (GLD), and the broad basket (DBC) faded—oversupply angst meets steady dollar/rates. Crypto couldn’t catch the QQQ tailwind: BTCUSD and ETHUSD finished below their opens after a hot range. Sector scoreboard: XLU outperformed as yields eased, XLV was a soft green on ongoing obesity-drug buzz, and XLF lagged with a modest flattening tone. Macro chatter featured a Fed voice hinting at cooling inflation in 3–4 months and scope for moderate cuts, but with reminders that bonds’ 2020-esque year isn’t guaranteed to repeat if inflation proves sticky. Watch next: follow-through in semis, whether software joins the party, any upside surprise in delayed inflation prints, and if energy/precious metals stabilizes or keep sliding.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 18, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Stocks advance at midday with tech leadership; bonds firm as 10-year sits near 4.15%; dollar edges up vs. euro; commodities softer

12/18/2025 01:34 PM • Tech is dragging the tape uphill like it’s leg day. QQQ is ripping about +1.9% with XLK near +2.0%, while SPY cruises +1.1% and IWM adds ~+1.0% for real breadth. The Dow’s the designated spectator at +0.5%. Rates are behaving: the 10-year is parked near 4.15% with the 2-year around 3.48%, curve positive, and duration catching a modest bid (TLT/IEF green, SHY flat). With market inflation expectations anchored in the low-2s, that’s oxygen for growth multiples—don’t fight the 4.15%. Sector flow screams “duration trade”: tech leads, financials barely budge, and defensives like utilities and health care tag along. Commodities got sent to timeout—silver lagging hard, gold a slight dip, crude softer, nat gas taking a bigger hit—while the dollar firms a touch vs. the euro. That combo smells like mild disinflation tailwind, not doom. Crypto’s doing its own choreography: BTC a hair lower, ETH a hair higher—uncorrelated vibes while equities cruise. No fresh single-stock fireworks—this is clean factor flow: stable yields → multiple expansion → mega-cap tech victory lap with small caps confirming. Into the close: watch if QQQ and XLK hold the throttle, whether IWM keeps the breadth alive, and if bonds stay bid. A late pop in yields could wobble growth and fade the move; steady rates keep the Santa ramp open for business. Multiple expansion train still boarding—tickets checked by the 10-year.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 18, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Stocks open higher as yields ease; tech leads on AI tailwinds while metals slip

12/18/2025 09:35 AM • Opening bell dropped a bullish mixtape: yields cooled, AI heat turned back on, and QQQ is leading the conga line. SPY +0.9%, IWM +1.2%, DIA +0.5%—risk-on with tech and energy up, financials firm, healthcare flat. Bonds got a bid as the curve eased (10Y ~4.15%, 5Y ~3.69 as of 12/16) and the inflation story softened. Market chatter adds juice: a cooler CPI read and Christopher Waller saying inflation should fall over the next few months with room for about 100 bps of cuts. Translation: duration-friendly and growth-friendly; TLT/IEF inch higher. The spark is Micron’s “dramatic beat,” with MarketWatch calling it MU’s “Nvidia moment.” That’s refocusing buyers on near-term earnings strength across the AI supply chain even as funding jitters (Oracle/CoreWeave) linger—one piece says Oracle fears may be overstated. XLK sits on the throne. Commodities took the other side: gold and silver faded (profit-taking vibes in SLV), oil a touch lower, nat gas a touch higher; DBC flat. Energy equities still green as the tape digests a weak-crude-into-’25 setup and leadership shuffles (BP’s new chief). Consumer/travel headlines add spice: Elliott jumps into Lululemon, DoorDash plugs into ChatGPT, Southwest prints multi-year highs, and American’s A321XLR takes flight in the U.S.—all supportive for transports and the small-cap vibe. Healthcare stays calm despite Medline’s IPO pop; valuation talk keeping XLV subdued. Watch next: can XLK/semis keep the baton if yields drift lower; does the bond bid stick; do SLV/GLD base or break; can XLE decouple from crude; and does IWM breadth hold. Crypto is cheering from the sidelines with BTC and ETH ripping.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 17, 2025 4:10pm (New York)

Tech-led selloff into the close as AI unwind meets steady long-end yields; metals and energy rebound

12/17/2025 04:10 PM • Risk-off lite into the bell. SPY slipped 1.1% to 671.30 while QQQ faceplanted 1.9% to 600.36, DIA eased 0.5%, and IWM matched SPY at -1.1%. No rates tantrum—10Y parked near 4.18%, 2Y 3.51%, curve gently positive; TLT/IEF/SHY barely twitched. The damage was local: Tech (XLK -2.2%) ate it as the crowded AI trade unwound on fresh chatter about data-center financing and whether hyperscaler capex can actually keep pace. Headlines pointed to weakness around Nvidia/Broadcom, Oracle skepticism, and worries ServiceNow leans heavier on M&A—enough to yank leadership and send the Qs spinning. Elsewhere, the tape found some shock absorbers: XLF basically flat, XLV dipped just 0.17%. Energy equities didn’t buy the commodity bounce—XLE -0.7% even as USO jumped 2.7% and UNG ripped 4.4%. Shiny rocks took the crown: GLD +0.86% and SLV +4.4% as the late-cycle + easing-hope combo stayed intact; DBC +1.15% rounded out a green day for broad commodities. FX vibes: EURUSD in the mid-1.17s. Crypto lagged—Bitcoin slid under 86k probing YTD lows, Ether softer. Macro catalyst on deck: Thursday’s delayed CPI. Breakevens are anchored (5y ~2.35%, 10y ~2.27%). Hot print risks body-checking the “moderate cuts” dream and smacking the belly; cool print could juice metals and hand duration a small W. Policy backdrop is split: a Fed chair finalist seeing falling inflation and moderate cuts versus other voices flagging 2026 risks. Primary markets flashed a pulse with Medline’s $6.26B IPO at $29. Playbook: fade froth in AI until guidance calms financing fears, watch if non-tech leadership broadens, and see if energy stocks finally chase crude’s bounce.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 17, 2025 4:05pm (New York)

Tech slides into the close as AI trade unwinds; commodities firm, crypto weakens, and yields hold ahead of CPI

12/17/2025 04:05 PM • Tape lost altitude into the bell. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all finished under Tuesday, with tech eating the heaviest loss as the AI money machine hit a funding reality check. Headlines circled debt-fueled data centers and hyperscaler financing chatter (Oracle/CoreWeave), and that was enough to smack the AI complex as Nvidia, Broadcom, and Oracle slid, with Broadcom logging its worst three-day stretch since 2020. ServiceNow joined the software slippage on fears it goes shopping to keep growth alive. Rotations went defensive: financials were basically a statue, health care dipped but outpaced tech, and the energy/utilities proxy was mixed even as commodity proxies climbed. Rates barely budged: 2Y 3.51%, 5Y 3.73%, 10Y 4.18%, 30Y 4.84%—still inverted up front, anchored out back. Bond ETFs (TLT/IEF/SHY) were snoozy. Fed vibes were two-handed: Waller talked falling inflation and roughly 100 bps of cuts if data behaves, while Bostic waved a 2026 caution flag tied to fiscal/tax risks. That ambiguity kept the curve caged heading into a delayed CPI that could decide who pumps next. Commodities flexed: oil and broad baskets green, nat gas perked up, and precious metals stole the show—GLD and SLV ripping as classic hedges while tech sulked. Crypto couldn’t catch a bid: bitcoin cracked below 86k and ETH leaked lower—risk-off and de-leveraging energy spilling into the digital sandbox. Side quests: Eli Lilly has been outpacing Nvidia lately (non-tech growth rotation), Southwest popped to multi-year highs in prior sessions on 2026 profitability hopes, and Medline’s jumbo IPO priced clean—issuance window still open. Tomorrow’s CPI is the final boss: hot print hurts long-duration tech; cool print feeds metals and maybe stabilizes semis.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 17, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Stocks slip at midday as tech lags; precious metals and energy catch a bid while crypto softens

12/17/2025 01:34 PM • Midday tape = consolidation nation. SPY and especially QQQ are bleeding as the AI/software hype machine taps the brakes. Oracle headlines about data-center funding and AI capex have everyone re-checking their 2026 moon math, while chips wobble after Broadcom’s multi-day slide and a fresh bark from the lone NVDA bear. XLK is taking the hit, Dow and small caps are softer, and defensives aren’t saving you either with XLU drooping as yields drifted up earlier in the week. Bonds? Snooze mode. TLT/IEF/SHY barely flinch as the street refuses to add duration one day before the delayed CPI drop. The macro soundtrack is mixed but chill: Waller talking cooling inflation in 3–4 months and room for roughly 100 bps of cuts, while Bostic plays hall monitor about fiscal risks and says no cuts in 2026. Net: expectations anchored, positioning tactical. Meanwhile, the shiny stuff is partying. Gold and silver catch a clean bid, crude (USO) bounces despite 2025 shaping up as a supply-glut slog, and the whole commodities basket lifts. Euro’s a tad firmer; crypto’s the opposite vibe with BTC sliding toward the year’s lows and ETH tagging along. On the micro front, Medline’s mega-IPO is the risk-appetite litmus test; transports are getting leadership chatter (Southwest perky), media M&A tea leaves put Netflix in the driver’s seat, and Ford’s EV pivot reminds everyone that cash flow > dreams. Big picture: growthy tech is consolidating gains, commodities are the rotation du jour, and the next candle gets drawn by Thursday’s CPI. Buckle up.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 17, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks edge higher at the open as gold and silver surge; bonds soften with 10-year anchored near 4.18%

12/17/2025 09:34 AM • Green open with a side of FOMO. Tape’s drifting higher but the juice is in rotation: small caps outpacing the big kids as SPY, QQQ, and DIA all nudge up while IWM leads the charge. Mega-cap tech is catching its breath after the AI sprint, leaving cyclicals and financials to carry the bags. Yields are chill but firm, with the 10Y parked near 4.18% and the curve back to a gentle upward slope. That means bond ETFs open soggy, not scary. Precious metals stole the bell: gold shines, silver absolutely rips. That tracks with a softer-dollar vibe and anchored breakevens, which is catnip for metals and commodities broadly. Energy commodities bounce (oil and nat gas up), but energy equities are like, “we’ll see,” lagging despite firmer crude. Fed tea leaves stay constructive: Waller leans independence and a moderate cuts path (talking room for about 100 bps over time), while Bostic waves the fiscal-risk flag. Net: gradual easing bias, sticky long end if deficits stay spicy. Tech’s split-screen continues—AI hardware capex angst keeps XLK muted while the street whispers that software could inherit the crown into 2026. Positioning is hot with record-low cash and the most bullish survey in years, so the holiday tape can float… until a surprise pops it. Watch the messy jobs print ahead, the Fed chair chatter, and whether small-cap/cyclical rotation has legs. For now: silver moonwalks, bonds yawn, and the market tiptoes toward year-end tendies—selectively.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 16, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Tech steadies as cyclicals lag: QQQ edges higher while SPY and Dow finish lower; bonds bid, energy and nat gas slide

12/16/2025 04:03 PM • Market did the splits: QQQ in the green while SPY and the Dow took a seat, and small caps face-planted. Bonds were the real MVP as duration caught a bid — TLT and IEF up, SHY barely twitching — signaling intraday yield compression even with a chunky 10s–30s term premium still hanging around (2y 3.52%, 5y 3.75%, 10y 4.19%, 30y 4.85%). That combo feeds the current meta: cash-generative megacap tech can eat modest rate relief; levered cyclicals and small caps sulk. Energy got sent to timeout: USO -2.5%, UNG -2.9%, dragging DBC, while gold napped and silver yawned. Sector tape says “defensive-mixed”: XLK eked a gain, XLF and XLV sagged — health care weighed by Pfizer’s soft 2026 tone and 2025 reset. Under the hood, tech’s a rotation rodeo: J.P. Morgan’s semis picks vs Broadcom wobble, Oracle funding questions, ServiceNow jitters; Tesla flirting with highs, while Wall Street’s lone Nvidia bear keeps poking the AI beehive. Macro comms went full nuance: Williams and Miran are chill on inflation expectations (breakevens anchored around 2.2–2.35%), but Bostic lobbed a warning on tax-driven inflation and “no 2026 cuts.” Siegel’s “dovish hawkish cut” meme lives. S&P’s December survey flagged a sagging economy on tariffs/inflation/weaker sales — explains IWM pain. Meanwhile, a fund manager survey shows record-low cash and peak bullish vibes, so dips in favored names keep getting bought. Crypto ignored the boomer tape: BTC and ETH green. Watch next: messy jobs setup, more Fed-speak, and earnings from FedEx/Jabil for clues on freight, restocking, and AI spend. Until long-end chill shows up, leadership stays narrow and selective — respect the dispersion.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 16, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday Market Check: Stocks Slip as Energy and Health Care Lag; Bonds Bid While Crypto Advances

12/16/2025 01:34 PM • Risk-off matinee. Breadth stinks and small caps faceplant while energy and health care carry the L. SPY -0.75%, QQQ -0.47%, DIA -0.87%, IWM -1.14%. Long-end yields still hefty (10Y 4.19%, 30Y 4.85%) with a quirky front-end inversion (2Y 3.52% vs 1Y 3.54%), so duration-sensitive and capital-intensive names feel the headwind. Inflation expectations stay chill (5Y 2.35%, 10Y 2.27%), and Fed voices Miran/Williams aren’t sweating prices—Siegel’s “dovish version of a hawkish cut” is the mood, but today’s rotation screams defensive. An S&P survey flagged softer sales, tariff pressure, and hiring restraint—growth vibes mixed. Health care drags as PFE resets the revenue arc and SNY’s MS setback sours sentiment. Energy gets dunked as oil and gas slide (USO/UNG red), even with Ford pivoting toward hybrids and storage, taking notes from TSLA’s energy profits. Tech is a tug-of-war: XLK modestly lower as AI leadership inches from hardware stars to selective software. ORCL gets 2026 love but financing jitters linger; NOW sinks on M&A fears; AVGO just logged its worst three-day stretch since 2020; a lone NVDA bear keeps 2026 caution alive. XLF slips with the broader tape. Bonds catch a modest bid (TLT/IEF/SHY green) as disinflation vibes persist. Commodities broadly soft (DBC down), gold flat, silver off. Crypto flexes: BTC and ETH grind higher on adoption chatter. Cannabis catches air on reschedule headlines (TLRY ripping). SIRI re-ups Stern—content still prints. Into the close, eyes on FDX and JBL for freight and tech-supply read-throughs, plus Fed-chair handicapping, tariff noise, and whether AI’s baton pass to software sticks without pancaking risk appetite.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 16, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Stocks open slightly lower as tech lags, financials edge up; gold firms while oil and gas retreat

12/16/2025 09:35 AM • Opening bell says: rotation still driving the bus. Indexes slip as the mega-cap/AI crowd cools off—SPY −0.26%, QQQ −0.42%, DIA −0.15%, IWM −0.58%. Financials catch a modest bid while tech gets a reality check. Call it the “dovish-hawkish” Fed cocktail: cheaper short-end juice helps balance-sheet plays, but the long end isn’t budging. Yields stay a mood board—2Y 3.52%, 10Y 4.19%, 30Y 4.85%—keeping duration-heavy stuff soft and forcing the market to pay up only for earnings with backbone. Sentiment is stretched with record-low cash, so every headline hits harder. Sector tape matches the vibe: XLF a hair green, XLK leaking, XLV and XLU just meh. AI/data-center skepticism is loud—shorts chirping about ROI, Oracle financing chatter, and Broadcom’s slide reminding everyone there’s zero room for fuzzy paybacks at premium multiples. Bonds say “not today” to a duration party (TLT red), while gold flexes—GLD up—because real rates high + geopolitics = shiny insurance. Silver lags, energy trips out of the gate (USO, UNG down), and the broad commodity basket bleeds. Crypto’s the wild child again with BTC and ETH green, feeding pockets of risk-on. Micro sparks: Frontier leadership shuffle, Ford leaning hybrid and dinging battery-adjacent names, Pfizer tightening 2025 focus, and Paramount’s leverage saga keeping credit on the radar. Bottom line: still a rotation tape—banks/quality cyclicals > long-duration dream boards. With long yields firm and positioning spicy, expect sharp moves on any data or AI capex updates.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 15, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Defensives and Bonds Bid Into the Close as Tech Lags; Precious Metals Shine, Energy Slips

12/15/2025 04:04 PM • Tape went full turtle into the close. SPY and DIA barely leaked while QQQ face-planted as the market rotated out of AI fame into boring-but-beautiful cash flows. Small caps (IWM) reminded everyone December leadership can vanish fast. Playbook was simple: hide in healthcare and utilities, sprinkle some financials, and hug duration while mega-cap growth cools off. Macro set the stage: inflation expectations comfy in the low-2s, but the long end’s still tall, so real yields keep tech multiples honest. Fed chatter was mixed—net takeaway: easing at the margins, but it’s still data’s world. Bonds caught a gentle bid across the curve (TLT/IEF/SHY green), classic “don’t overextend” vibes. Commodities split-screened it. Gold kept shining and silver out-memed gold, while oil, the broad basket, and nat gas all took naps. FX said “soft dollar-ish” with EURUSD a touch firmer. Crypto caught the winter chills—BTC and ETH pulled back with risk appetite, year-end liquidity doing its thing. Single-name noise fed the rotation theme: software and AI spend under the microscope (ServiceNow acquisition worries, Oracle financing questions), Broadcom’s AI engine still humming, Tesla flexing on autonomy hype. Retail got selective (a contrarian Costco call), healthcare proved its diversification chops despite Sanofi drama, cannabis stayed spicy on rescheduling talk, and iRobot reminded everyone balance sheets still matter. Bottom line: Defense won Monday. If jobs and inflation prints cooperate, this barbell—defensives + some financials, plus a duration blanket—sticks. If AI capex ROI wobbles or data disappoints, expect more rotation and less hero-ball in tech.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 15, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday market: Equities ease while bonds and precious metals firm; AI rotation narrative stays in focus

12/15/2025 01:34 PM • Market hits the brakes after last week’s roller coaster: SPY -0.25%, QQQ -0.44%, DIA -0.26%, and small caps benched at -0.70%. The rotate-o-tron stays on—health care flexes (XLV green) while tech trips (XLK red), as the crowd keeps rebalancing away from the priciest AI winners into steadier earners. Bonds catch a calm bid across the curve (TLT/IEF/SHY up) with yields drifting lower; curve’s still positively sloped (2Y 3.52%, 10Y 4.14%, 30Y 4.79%) and inflation expectations are anchored near pre-2020 vibes. Metals glow-up: silver sprints (+2.7%) while gold jogs (+0.1%). Energy slips with oil and nat gas red. Crypto risk-off: BTC ~-4.6%, ETH ~-6.3%. AI soap opera keeps tech leadership choppy. ORCL’s AI-financing worries remain a wet blanket, splashing onto NVDA by association. AVGO earned support on AI momentum, but a mystery customer has investors squinting. META stays in the buy-the-dip chat; JPM says GOOGL and AMZN look well-placed into next year. TSLA rides autonomy hype toward fresh highs, while RIVN reminds everyone narratives don’t pay the bills. Retail/consumer tape is mixed: COST topped sales in one read but the quarter felt nuanced; LULU swaps captains after a bumpy year. V has been a Dow bright spot as quality in payments gets a rethink. Health care leads even with SNY stumbling on MS setbacks—dispersion is the name of the game. Elsewhere: IRBT tapped Chapter 11 and is heading private. Cannabis plays ripped late last week—TLRY popped on reschedule chatter. EURUSD is mostly a bystander. Watch next: jobs and inflation prints for the rate path, hyperscaler AI-capex digestion, and year-end rotations plus thin liquidity to magnify any headline. Stay nimble.

Read State of Market Report