State of Market Reports (Page 3)

State of Maket Reports Page 3 of 3 • 56 articles

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 11, 2025 12:32pm (New York)

Midday market: Dow leads while tech lags; bonds firm, energy commodities rise, euro edges up as crypto eases

11/11/2025 12:32 PM • Midday tape screams rotation. Dow leads the conga line while growth kids sit timeout: DIA pops as cyclicals and health care flex, but QQQ/XLK catch a chill ahead of a closely watched chipmaker event later today. SPY is basically a flat pancake—chop city—while small caps hover near unchanged. Under the hood, bonds are getting love: TLT and IEF green as yields ease, matching an upward-sloping curve (2y < 10y < 30y) and a “cooling to mid-2s” inflation expectation vibe. That’s a soft-landing snack, but we’ve got a data tsunami brewing once DC reopens—backlogged jobs and inflation prints crammed into a tight window. Expect bigger-than-normal moves when those hit. Health care is the hero: obesity/cardiometabolic buzz and M&A chatter juice XLV to the top of the leaderboard. Financials join the party on improving credit headlines. Tech is the laggard as AI crosscurrents mix hype with hard questions on capex, timing, and accounting—enough to nudge megacaps lower into the event risk. Energy commodities rip—oil and nat gas both up—yet XLE is oddly flat, a reminder that commodity heat doesn’t always flow straight into equity tickers. Euro is firmer, crypto is off the highs with BTC and ETH red—risk tone says “rotate, don’t liquidate.” Big watchlist: shutdown resolution timing, Treasury auctions as tone-setters, the chipmaker’s analyst day for AI sentiment, and any winter energy pinch. Rotation days can stick—until the data drop flips the script.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 11, 2025 9:14am (New York)

Risk appetite improves at the open as shutdown end hopes meet firmer commodities and steady long-end yields

11/11/2025 09:14 AM • Green screen at the bell. Shutdown-end hopium plus friendlier long end has bulls clocking in early: SPY +1.3%, QQQ +1.8%, DIA +0.9%, IWM +0.7% premarket. Tech leads the charge (XLK +1.9%) as the AI saga stays spicy—CoreWeave’s beat screams “not over,” but chatter around CoreWeave pressure and SoftBank ditching its Nvidia stake keeps rotations twitchy. Street talk of $1.5T needed to fund the AI buildout reminds everyone this is a capital-hungry boss fight. Health care’s in the slipstream (XLV +1.0%): Pfizer snagging Metsera and Amgen touting new cholesterol data keep catalysts flowing. Financials firm (XLF ~+0.4%) with the curve less kinked and a $125B Treasury auction gauntlet ahead; Visa/Mastercard settlement watch could reshape rewards math at the margins. Duration’s getting a nibble: TLT +0.4%, IEF a hair green, SHY flat—auction tails and bid-to-cover will steer the day’s vibe. Commodities flex: GLD +3.4% and SLV +5.8% rip, oil and natty firmer (USO +1.6%, UNG +1.3%), while XLE yawns—watch for follow-through if crude sticks. Dollar softens as EURUSD edges up near 1.1600. Crypto cools: BTC -1.3%, ETH -1.2%, with Chanos chest-thumping on MSTR. Playbook: follow Tech leadership, but watch if breadth widens to banks/energy/small caps. Key catalysts are shutdown headlines, the imminent data dump (jobs first), and Treasury auctions moving term premium. Net: constructive open, bulls in control, headline-sensitive. Respect the supply, trade the rotations.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 10, 2025 4:05pm (New York)

Tech leads broad rebound into the close as gold surges; bonds edge lower ahead of heavy Treasury supply

11/10/2025 04:05 PM • Green wall into the close with mega-cap growth doing the heavy lifting. SPY +1.5%, QQQ +2.2%, DIA +0.8%, IWM +1.0%—breadth finally showed up, but the crown stayed on Tech’s head. XLK popped +2.6% on steady AI/capex buzz and supply-chain chatter, while XLF barely nodded (+0.3%) and XLV cruised (+0.8%). Energy sat out: XLE flat even with crude firmer—positioning and idiosyncrasies overrode barrels. Rates backdrop = constructive-but-watchful. Latest reads have the 10Y near 4.11% and 30Y ~4.69%; duration ETFs leaked as the street makes room for this week’s $125B in Treasury auctions. With the data hose kinked by the shutdown, bid-to-cover and indirects are the scoreboard. Headlines say the shutdown could end this week, which helped the risk vibe even as airlines juggle staffing workarounds. Hard assets flexed. GLD ripped +2.7% and SLV outpaced at +4.3%, a clean nod to hedging with policy noise elevated and real yields still spicy. Oil and nat gas ticked up, DBC firmed, but energy equities shrugged. Crypto hit snooze: BTC hugged ~106k in a tight band; ETH drifted ~1% lower from the open—Big Tech correlation took a coffee break. Tape takeaway: growth-led squeeze with improving breadth, gold acting like the side quest, and bonds setting the next chapter. Watch auction stats, shutdown headlines, whether small-cap juice sticks, and if energy equities finally wake up.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 10, 2025 12:34pm (New York)

Midday market check: Tech leads a broad rebound as gold surges; bonds ease while shutdown headlines linger

11/10/2025 12:34 PM • Risk-on lunch rush. QQQ is carrying the squad (+~1.6%) with AI cheerleading, SPY rides shotgun (+~1%), and even the small-cap cousins IWM show up (+~1%). Boomer basket DIA is green but yawning. Sector scoreboard says Tech is captain while Energy sits in timeout despite crude basically flat. Rates aren’t throwing roses—10Y near 4.1%, 30Y ~4.7%—so TLT/IEF bleed a touch, but stocks shrug and push. The wild card? Shiny rocks. Gold and silver are ripping (GLD/SLV) even as inflation expectations stay anchored, a classic policy/fiscal/geopolitics hedge plus a dash of momentum. Crypto can’t relate—BTC and ETH fade from the open—giving you a neat decoupling: tech moonboots on, coins take a breather. DC shutdown headlines still buzzing: weekend chatter hints at progress, but travel ops are messy and sentiment’s dinged. Market’s vibe says “deal eventually,” with turbulence in the meantime. Under the hood, AI infra chatter stays loud—Nvidia chasing more wafers at Taiwan Semi keeps the build-out theme hot, even as some notes dunk on Meta and flag Microsoft’s losing streak. Elsewhere: Visa/Mastercard settle with merchants (watch rewards math), Pfizer bags an obesity-drug target despite Novo’s interest, Expedia talks AI tailwinds, Airbnb flags investment/regulatory weight, McDonald’s leans value, DoorDash catches heat on spending worries, Wendy’s better-than-feared, and Ford’s Lightning faces the EV reality check. Bottom line: breadth improving, tech leadership intact, metals screaming hedge, bonds wobbly. Keep eyes on shutdown headlines, AI capex signals, and the long end—another yield pop could reshuffle the leaderboard fast.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 7, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

At the bell: Tech lags while small caps, energy and financials steady the tape; gold climbs as long-end rates edge higher

11/07/2025 04:04 PM • Chop city but rotation did the heavy lifting. Mega-cap tech took another breather while the rest of the market quietly shouldered the load. SPY finished basically flat, DIA a touch green, and QQQ sagged as valuation/AI-capex hangover lingered. The small-cap crew (IWM) led with a tidy pop, backed by energy and financials catching a bid. Oil firmed, nat gas slipped, and gold put on some shine as the dollar softened and long-end rate vibes stayed twitchy. Under the hood, curves said “steepen me, bro”: front and belly eked gains while the long end leaked, leaving TLT red. Ten-year pinned near 4.17% with 30-year around 4.74%—not a tantrum, just enough sauce to help banks and crimp duration plays. Macro was a mood: the record shutdown is starting to bite, FAA chopping 10% of flight capacity at 40 airports, consumer sentiment sliding toward the basement, and Challenger layoffs at a 22-year high. Still, claims context says cooling, not collapsing. Inflation expectations? Anchored in the low-2%s, giving markets a reason not to panic. Commodities liked the softer dollar: gold and silver caught bids, oil edged higher, and broad commodities inched up. Crypto rebelled against the tech slump, with bitcoin back above 100k and ether green—so that QQQ correlation took a day off. Net-net: de-risking in megacap tech, not abandoning equities. If shutdown headlines and long-end volatility chill out, breadth could stick. If AI spend skepticism and steepening persist, expect more rotation days where sector picks matter more than the index print.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 7, 2025 1:54pm (New York)

Midday markets: Tech lags while havens firm; bonds stabilize as shutdown concerns and labor signals weigh

11/07/2025 01:54 PM • Midday tape = risk-off with a side of vibes. SPY and QQQ are leaking as megacap/AI gets the yips—this is tech’s ugliest stretch since the spring tariff tantrum. XLK is the anvil, with investors side-eyeing hyperscaler capex like it’s a gym membership in February. Microsoft’s losing streak and Meta’s post-AI-spend slump aren’t helping. Meanwhile, energy says “I lift” as crude inches up and XLE grinds green. Financials are flat, health care drifts, and small caps are down but not disaster-tier—broad de-risking, not full-on evacuation. Bonds put the cape back on. Duration bid shows up across TLT/IEF/SHY with the curve still anchored: 2Y ~3.63%, 10Y ~4.17%, 30Y ~4.74%. That lines up with the macro mashup: labor is cooling (October job cuts spiked) but not falling off a cliff (claims didn’t). Inflation expectations are contained, so the market’s running the “soften but don’t shatter” playbook. Havens firm: gold and silver shine, dollar eases vs euro, and crypto stabilizes—BTC a touch green despite grumpy headlines, ETH a bit perkier. Shutdown grind is the mood killer—FAA slicing 10% of flights at 40 airports doesn’t scream “bull market.” Eyes also on the Fed’s Financial Stability report for any credit cockroach check. Under the hood: semis/AI infra still spend-heavy (capex hangover risk), DoorDash gets clobbered on ‘26 investment talk, travel demand looks sticky (airlines, Expedia), and value/commodities quietly rotate in. Technically, a key S&P support cracked—watch the VIX for a volatility unlock. Into the afternoon: headline roulette on shutdown, any labor read-throughs, and whether bonds keep the bid to keep equities from sliding into the close.

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