State of Market Reports (Page 3)

State of Maket Reports Page 3 of 7 • 171 articles

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 6, 2026 1:34pm (New York)

Midday Market: Stocks Grind Higher as Metals Shine, Dollar Firms, and Energy Softens

01/06/2026 01:34 PM • Green candles back-to-back as the tape grinds higher and the AI machine keeps printing. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all cruising, with tech setting the pace while banks and health care draft behind. Under the hood, duration’s taking a breather—TLT and IEF off—so yields are inching up, dollar’s doing push-ups, and that’s still not stopping the chips from feasting. Nvidia’s CES drumbeat and analyst love letters have the whole AI food chain buzzing: equipment, memory, and foundry plays in focus, while AMD’s CES notes add fuel. ASML’s upgrade glow-up and Micron momentum keep the capex cycle narrative juiced. Software’s selective—Palantir chatter says margins matter—but the bid is real where growth is durable. Metals are flexing: GLD and SLV ripping as the Venezuela headlines keep the safety vibe alive. Energy, though, is snoozing—USO and UNG both softer despite the geopolitical noise, with pros reminding everyone that real barrels take time. Financials are firm into a constructive 2026 setup, and health care’s green even as GLP-1 drama (Novo pill chatter) pressures peers under the surface. Autos are the mess: Tesla’s sales miss and autonomy crossfire damp the mood, while Ford’s hybrid lane still has traction. Macro keeps it spicy: ISM still contraction-land, a Fed voice flagged AI-related hiring slowdowns, and the jobs report is the next boss fight. Dollar firmer, crypto slipping (BTC and ETH red) as some rotate into “old-economy” names. Big picture: risk-on with a side of rate creep. Watch CES headlines, the labor print, and whether gold’s safety bid sticks while AI capex kings carry the index.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 6, 2026 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open mixed as tech leadership persists; metals bid and oil firms while long bonds ease

01/06/2026 09:34 AM • Mixed open with the AI squad bench-pressing the tape again. QQQ up around 0.2% and SPY barely green while DIA and IWM trip over their laces. XLK leads as CES turns into a semiconductor hype-fest: Nvidia flexes that “Vera Rubin is in full production,” AMD touts cheaper, memory-stacked accelerators, ASML gets an upgrade on rising memory demand, and an Intel foundry glow-up call plus Micron’s pricing tailwind keep the data-center fuel lines open. Palantir picks up a fresh bull for that margin-plus-rev combo—software selectivity remains the name of the game. Rates still restrictive: 10Y around 4.19%, long end sticky, and duration sulks (TLT/IEF lower, SHY flat). That setup keeps financials a touch soft and lets healthcare’s long-duration vibes stay cautious even as XLV pokes green. Utilities catch a tiny defensive bid. Commodities steal some spotlight: gold shines and silver sprints on a safety bid after U.S.-Venezuela headlines, while oil firms as traders price a geopolitical premium—just don’t chase every Venezuela-linked rip, per the chatter. Nat gas is the odd one out, sliding on comfy supply/seasonals. Autos/autonomy drama: Tesla’s sales miss hands BYD the crown, while Mobileye’s sensor-fusion win dunks on camera-only purism—capex will follow what’s safer and proven. Macro check: ISM manufacturing still contracting, medium-term inflation expectations anchored, near-term a bit warmer. Kashkari says AI might be slowing big-co hiring; jobs print later this week is the final boss—soft number juiced for earlier easing, tight print keeps the long end glued. Crypto shrugs off the rotation takes with BTC and ETH bouncing. Narrow leadership, big vibes—watch if this squeezes into broader rotation or reverts to mega-cap muscle memory.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 5, 2026 4:04pm (New York)

U.S. stocks finish higher as cyclicals and small caps lead; safe‑haven metals jump and oil advances while Treasury prices firm

01/05/2026 04:04 PM • Cyclicals clocked in and actually did work. Indices closed green across the board: IWM +1.6% led the charge, DIA +1.3% as Old Economy flexed, QQQ +0.8% and SPY +0.7% tagged along. Banks carried the banner (XLF +2.2%) as yields drifted lower intraday and credit vibes stayed constructive. Duration caught a bid (TLT/IEF/SHY up) while the dollar softened—classic mix for a risk-on day with a safety twist. Tech tiptoed higher (XLK +0.24%): ASML hit a record on an upgrade tied to memory demand, chip-cap equipment names are in focus ahead of Nvidia’s CES talk, and Intel grabbed a Buy—net result is selective adds, not chasing. Health care lagged (XLV -0.3%) with obesity-drug headlines after Novo’s weight-loss pill debut and some midday wobble in Eli Lilly. Energy was quirky: oil firmed (USO +1.8%) and broad commodities rose (DBC +1.8%) on Venezuela headlines and risk premium chatter, but XLE slipped (-1.1%) on single-name dispersion; nat gas faceplanted (UNG -3.6%). Shiny rocks stole the show: gold and silver ripped (GLD +2.6%, SLV +5.0%) on safe-haven flows with yields easing. Macro backdrop: ISM manufacturing stayed in contraction at 47.9%, and Kashkari flagged AI cooling big-cap hiring. Inflation expectations remain anchored in the low-to-mid 2s, giving bonds room to breathe. Crypto joined the party (BTC +1.7%, ETH +2.4%). Watch next: Friday’s jobs report—cool print extends bond bid and cyclical breadth; hot print tests Treasuries and banks. Also track CES headlines for semis and any fresh Venezuela shockwaves for energy dispersion.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 5, 2026 1:34pm (New York)

Midday Market: Broad Rally Builds as Small Caps and Dow Lead; Gold, Silver Extend Breakouts While Bonds Firm

01/05/2026 01:34 PM • Halftime tape is green across the board: IWM leads +~1.7%, DIA +~1.6%, with SPY +~0.8% and QQQ +~0.9%. Breadth is back and the risk-on switch is flipped. Semis are front‑running CES hype—ASML got an upgrade to fresh records, and the wafer‑fab crew (Lam Research, Applied Materials, KLA) is riding the AI data‑center buildout narrative. XLK’s modest gain hides the chip strength doing the heavy lifting. Banks steal the spotlight: XLF +~2.7% as JPM gets love and the earnings countdown begins. Curve’s still awkward, but the market’s betting on resilient NII and fee engines. Defensives get benched: XLU -~2.2% and XLV -~0.6% as a new U.S. weight‑loss pill from Novo stirs GLP‑1 crosscurrents. Small‑cap leadership says risk appetite is alive. Macro check: ISM Manufacturing prints 47.9 (10th straight contraction). Bonds catch a bid (TLT, others green), easing intraday yields, but the long end remains elevated versus late‑December shorts—soft‑landing vibes, not panic. Commods: GLD +~2.5% and SLV +~5.7% rip on the “future rate cuts + geopolitical + deglobalization” cocktail. Oil (USO +~1.8%) pops on Venezuela headlines; nat gas (UNG -~3.9%) faceplants. DBC is broadly higher. FX/crypto: EURUSD edges up; BTCUSD and ETHUSD firm with the risk‑on breeze. Single‑stock spice: Versant (the Comcast spinoff) stumbles on debut; an oil supermajor’s rally on Venezuela chatter looks more sizzle than steak. Watch next: this week’s jobs report to reset rate paths, CES keynotes to validate chip euphoria, banks’ NII/credit color to justify XLF’s pump, and any Venezuela fallout for crude.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 5, 2026 9:44am (New York)

Stocks open firmer as tech leads, bonds steady; gold and oil bid amid Venezuela headlines

01/05/2026 09:44 AM • Green light at the bell and the AI crowd’s already doing donuts. SPY pops ~0.5% while QQQ rips ~1% as mega-cap tech and semis grab the wheel. XLK leads with a boost from chip hype and a bullish Taiwan Semiconductor call, reminding everyone who’s been printing the tendies. Small caps (IWM) are green too, but it’s still a tech-tilted party. Rates market is whispering “steady as she goes.” Long duration catches a polite bid with the 10Y last at 4.18% and the curve gently upward; TLT/IEF up, SHY flat. Fed minutes showed a house divided on cuts, so traders are playing patient—easing still in the 2026 narrative, but timing is a data slave now. Precious metals came out swinging: GLD +~2%, SLV +~5%—gold bugs doing victory laps even with a slightly firmer dollar tone. Energy’s a study in nuance: USO +~1% on Venezuela headlines after reports of Maduro’s capture, but XLE is flat at the open as equity folks weigh production/sanctions/demand crosscurrents; chatter has Chevron outperforming. Financials ease (XLF slightly red) with curve levels not doing banks any favors. Healthcare lags (XLV down) despite isolated biotech wins. Broad commodities firm; nat gas gets dunked again (UNG -~7%). Crypto’s mixed—BTC a hair up, ETH a hair down—more tied to liquidity vibes than micro headlines. Big boss fight is Friday’s jobs print: hot jobs could kneecap the duration/gold groove and ding high-duration tech; soft data extends the “own growth, own duration, hedge with metals” meta. Eyes on early bank/tech commentary and any oil aftershocks. Until then: let the AI engines rev and keep that duration hedge buckled.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 2, 2026 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks kick off 2026 mostly higher as small caps and cyclicals lead; precious metals extend strength while long-end yields hold above 4%

01/02/2026 04:03 PM • New year, new rotation. SPY inched green, DIA flexed, and small caps (IWM) kept cooking while QQQ took a breather. Under the hood, cyclicals and financials grabbed the baton as mega-cap growth chilled after a marathon run. The curve stayed upward sloped with the 2Y at 3.45%, 5Y 3.68%, 10Y parked near 4.14%, and 30Y at 4.81%—just enough gravity to nudge long-duration plays lower and give banks a little tailwind. Sector tape matched the macro: XLF firmed, XLK squeaked higher even as the Nasdaq-100 slipped (breadth > megas), and XLV climbed on that resilient-earnings vibe. Bonds did the duration dance: TLT and IEF eased, SHY ticked up. Commodities split hard—precious metals stayed unstoppable with GLD and SLV ripping again, while energy sagged (USO, UNG). DBC edged up on the metals muscle. Dollar had a modest pump with EURUSD slipping toward 1.1714, yet gold and silver still moonwalked—idiosyncratic demand flexing. Crypto kept the good mood: BTC near 89,749 and ETH around 3,119. Single-name spice: Tesla headlines flagged EV sales missing low bars and a second annual decline, while China’s BYD cranked volumes—pressure building for 2026 auto pricing. Furniture winners RH and Wayfair rode a tariff-delay pop. Nike got insider buy juice, Berkshire flashed a golden cross, and Meta kept feeding the AI arms race. Fed minutes showed a split on the easing path and hinted at a longer hold, while a potential DC funding scuffle looms. Playbook into next week: watch small-cap vs. QQQ breadth, bank read-through from a less-inverted curve, and whether gold/silver can chill at highs without stoking inflation expectations. Rotation over fireworks—for now.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 2, 2026 1:33pm (New York)

Midday market: Stocks mixed to start 2026 as yields hold higher and precious metals firm

01/02/2026 01:33 PM • New year, same chaos. At midday the tape’s split: DIAmonds and small caps are green while SPY and QQQ take a tiny nap. Energy is carrying the team even with crude down, tech’s easing off the throttle, and defensives are just coasting. Rates set the vibe: the curve’s steeper from 2Y to 30Y (10Y near 4.14%, 30Y near 4.81%), with longer‑run inflation expectations chilling in the mid‑2% range and 1‑year still sticky around 3.2%. Fed minutes? Mixed signals—some want more patience, maybe a longer pause. Translation: longer‑duration growth feels a headwind, value/cyclicals get a tailwind, and financials have a setup if the curve steepens further. Cross‑asset check: metals got the shiny bid (gold and silver up), oil and nat gas are softer, and crypto came out of the gate swinging—BTC pushing above its open toward 90K, ETH tagging along. Headlines are steering flows: Tesla’s weaker sales and cautious Q4 chatter ding megacap growth mojo, while Berkshire’s near “golden cross” says quality isn’t dead. Netflix scored with the Stranger Things finale in theaters (ancillary revenue plays matter), RH and Wayfair pop on a tariff delay, Nike’s insider buying adds confidence, and Apple/META chatter reminds us 2026 tech leadership might get more selective. What matters from here: watch the 10Y and the slope—if yields stick high, rotation into energy, small caps, and quality value can keep running; if they roll over, tech could re‑grab the baton. For day one, it’s rotation roulette: metals firm, oil soft, crypto loud, and breadth quietly improving under the hood.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 2, 2026 9:32am (New York)

Stocks start 2026 firmer as tech, precious metals lead; bonds bid with 10-year near 4.14%

01/02/2026 09:32 AM • 2026 fired the confetti cannon at the open. SPY cruising +0.5% and QQQ flexing +0.9% says growth and AI toys grabbed the wheel, with IWM +0.6% showing some small-cap spark. XLK is leading the lap, while XLF is just stretching—curve between 2s and 10s is upward sloped and the 10-year’s parked near 4.14%, so bonds are getting a sympathy bid (TLT green) even as the Fed stays mysterious. Minutes say Team Powell is split and “cuts when?” is still a shrug. Dollar a touch firmer vs euro, but precious metals don’t care—GLD +1.3%, SLV +4.5% moonwalking on sticky near-term inflation vibes and long-run expectations still anchored around the Fed’s target neighborhood. Energy got benched: oil (USO) -1.1%, nat gas (UNG) -3.2%. Discretionary got a juice box after a furniture tariff hike was delayed—RH and Wayfair caught a bounce. Autos are spicy: BYD just raised the EV bar while TSLA headlines lean pessimistic on Q4, so expect some jousting in the sector. Corporate tea leaves: Nike got love on CEO insider buys; Tim Cook did his buy-the-dip routine earlier; Meta’s been shopping for AI parts—still fuel for the picks-and-shovels crowd. Crypto put on its training wheels: BTC and ETH nudged higher. What matters next: does this tech-led pop broaden to cyclicals and small caps, and can the 10-year stay chill around 4.14%? Metals momentum vs. a firm dollar is your wildcard. Keep an eye on policy headlines (tariffs, funding deadlines) and the next labor/inflation prints—those are the bosses of this level.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 1, 2026 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks and commodities slip into year-end close as yields hold firm; metals cool after a record run

01/01/2026 04:03 PM • New year, same gravity. The market rang in 2026 with a risk-off slide as long-end yields stayed beefy and sat on multiples like a weighted vest. All the big proxies—SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM—closed red, signaling broad de-risking, not a one-sector wobble. The curve’s got a positive slope and the long end refuses to blink (10Y ~4.14%, 30Y ~4.81%), so duration took the hit: TLT and IEF bled while the front-end (SHY) barely flinched. Tech (XLK), fins (XLF), and health care (XLV) all drifted—banks want a real steepener, but the policy path is muddy. Fed minutes screamed “division,” with a 9–3 split on a quarter-point cut and outside chatter hinting rates could sit tight “for some time.” Meanwhile, claims slid under 200k again—hard to price hero cuts when jobs don’t crack. Commodities eased into the turn. After a record year, metals cooled (GLD, SLV) on profit-taking; energy softened (USO, UNG) and the broad basket (DBC) leaked. FX had the euro a touch softer as elevated U.S. yields lent the dollar occasional flex. Crypto did a little victory lap—BTC and ETH nudged higher even as corporate adoption headlines stayed messy. Big picture: elevated term premium + policy uncertainty = capped rallies until disinflation re-accelerates or the curve steepens for real. Keep eyes on fiscal headlines (shutdown risk), wage floors lifting consumer spend, and the AI/IPO pipeline (SpaceX, Anthropic) for fresh liquidity themes. First few 2026 prints on jobs and inflation will set the tone—either permission to expand multiples or more chop under a heavy 4-handle on the 10Y.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 1, 2026 1:34pm (New York)

Midday Market Brief: Equities lean lower into the new year as yields hold firm, metals cool, and crypto steadies

01/01/2026 01:34 PM • Happy New Year—charts are still a little hungover. No fresh regular-hours prints, so we’re rolling with the Dec 31 tape and the vibe is mild risk-off. Big boards sagged into the close (SPY/QQQ/DIA down), small caps (IWM) lagged, and sector ETFs all took a baby step lower. The macro boss remains the curve: 10Y parked near 4.14% with 2s/10s steepened ~69 bps. That’s a future tailwind setup for banks and maybe small caps if it holds, but it left long-duration bonds (TLT/IEF) a touch soggy. Metals cooled after a monster 2025—gold eased and silver gave back more, reminding everyone volatility doesn’t take holidays. Energy was mixed-to-soft with oil slightly down and nat gas still napping. Crypto, though? Carrying the torch into 2026. BTC flirted with 88k and ETH hovered just under 3k—steady hands despite choppy headlines on corporate adoption. Fed minutes scream “committee split” after the last 25 bp trim to 3.50%-3.75%; some want to sit tight “for some time.” Jobless claims under 200k for a third week say labor’s still sturdy, keeping the soft-landing debate alive. China tossed a small lifeline: PMI back to 50.1 and ~$9B in 2026 consumer subsidies—modest cyclical juice if it sticks. Stateside policy adds wrinkles: tariff reprieve for furniture (less inflation heat), minimum wage hikes in 19 states (low-end spend boost), and a fresh shutdown risk (confidence overhang). Playbook for early ’26: watch the 2s/10s for bank/small-cap leadership, precious metals positioning post-rip, Fed pause rhetoric, and any China follow-through. Crypto strength vs equity exhale is today’s split screen.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 1, 2026 9:33am (New York)

Markets begin 2026 on the back foot as long rates stay elevated, metals cool, and policy divides linger

01/01/2026 09:33 AM • New year, new candles, same boss: the long end. 10Y at 4.14% and 30Y at 4.81% has duration trades ducking, and equities opening 2026 on the back foot. SPY -0.75%, QQQ -0.83%, DIA -0.62%, IWM -0.74% — tech leads lower as XLK slips ~1.0%, with XLF, XLU, XLV also red. No clean rotation, just a tidy de-risking after a monster 2025. Fed minutes showed a 9–3 split and chatter about holding “for some time.” Claims under 200k for three weeks and 19 states hiking minimum wages keep service inflation sticky risk alive, so term premium isn’t budging. Commodities got the memo: precious-metal heat check with GLD -0.65% and SLV -6.6% after a record 2025 and talk of China tightening silver trade gates; energy soft too with USO -0.85%, UNG -6.7%, and DBC -1.2%. Crypto is the chill cousin: BTC ~87,766 in a tight range; ETH ~2,975 and slightly above its open. EURUSD hangs near 1.174 — vibes neutral without a prior-day comp. China tossed a lifeline with PMI back to 50.1 and ~$9B in 2026 consumer trade-in subsidies—could prop industrials and supply chains later, but it’s not bailing today’s open. Fixed income echoes the theme: TLT and IEF red while SHY is basically flat—classic long-end pain with 10Y ~4.14% and 30Y ~4.81%. Micro snippets: late-’25 Nike insider buys vs cautious Tesla Q4 sales chatter sum up the mixed micro, but today is macro-driven. Watchlist: 4.1–4.8% long yields as multiple killer, wage dynamics for services CPI, China follow-through, and fiscal brinkmanship headlines. Until the curve chills, dips are for day-traders, not heroes.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 31, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks fade into year-end; long yields steady, precious metals retreat, crypto mixed

12/31/2025 04:04 PM • Last bell of 2025 and the tape tiptoed out risk. Broad equities bled as year-end de-risking met a steady macro backdrop: SPY -0.75%, QQQ -0.83%, DIA -0.62%, IWM -0.74%. Growth lagged value into the close, classic holiday trim. Rates stayed firm with a steep curve vibe—2Y 3.45%, 10Y 4.12%, 30Y 4.80—while inflation expectations slope down from 3.20% (1Y) toward the low-2s longer out. Translation: near-term sticky, longer-term chill. Fed minutes said on hold “for some time,” and jobless claims dipped below 200k again, keeping soft-landing hopes intact heading into 2026. Tech led the giveback (XLK -1.0%) despite ongoing AI chatter and a late-year Meta deal. Defensives couldn’t hide (XLU, XLV red) and financials slipped with the tape even though the curve would like them—just not today. Duration caught a body-check: TLT -0.79%, IEF -0.33%, SHY flat. Commodities were the real drama. Gold cooled (GLD -0.65%), but silver did a cartwheel (SLV -6.58%) as traders braced for China asserting tighter control over silver on Jan 1—volatility wildcard unlocked. Energy eased: USO -0.85%, and nat gas face-planted (UNG -6.67%). Crypto split the uprights: BTC 87,551 (-0.78% from open), ETH 2,971 (+0.16%), with treasury-adoption headlines reminding everyone it’s still idiosyncratic. Micro sparks: Nike popped on insider buys from CEO Elliott Hill and director Tim Cook; Tesla flagged a weak Q4 delivery outlook while non-Tesla EVs were the 2025 winners. Into January, watch early jobs/inflation prints, potential Fed leadership headlines, government funding brinkmanship, silver policy details, and the AI earnings reality check. Fresh year, fresh flows—volatility could wake up fast.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 31, 2025 1:32pm (New York)

Midday markets soften into year-end as yields firm and precious metals cool

12/31/2025 01:32 PM • Final lap of 2025 and the tape is taking a cooldown stretch. Indices are a shade red with SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all leaking a bit—orderly, not panicky—classic year-end de-risking and PnL locking. Rates are the hall monitor: curve’s upsloping with 2Y 3.45%, 5Y 3.67%, 10Y 4.12%, and 30Y 4.80%. Fed minutes basically said “park it for a while,” while inflation expectations sit comfy at 3.20% (1y), 2.42% (5y), 2.34% (10y). Labor’s still sturdy with claims sub-200k. Net: long end firms, duration pouts—TLT and IEF drift lower. Sector board mirrors the indices: tech (XLK), fins (XLF), health (XLV), and utes (XLU) all fractionally off. No sector scare, just calendar mechanics. Commodities are where the action is: precious metals cooling with GLD softer and SLV taking the bigger slap after a monster 2025; thin holiday liquidity + higher margins + hot positioning = bumpy ride. Energy and the broad basket ease too (USO, UNG, DBC down). FX is sleepy with EURUSD near 1.174. Crypto’s in sympathy risk-off mode—BTC and ETH a touch softer. Micro sparks: Nike got a vibe lift on insider buys; mega-cap tech still shopping AI into the close of the year; autos split screen with GM’s 2025 outperformance while Tesla talked cautious sales. What matters next: early ’26 earnings on AI capex/monetization, whether disinflation stays on track without denting growth, and commodity policy curveballs (China/silver, Russian flows). Today feels like profit-taking, not a trend break—10Y north of 4% remains the boss level to watch.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 31, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks edge higher into the final trading day of 2025 as yields hold a positive slope and metals cool

12/31/2025 09:34 AM • Final lap of 2025 and the tape tiptoes higher. SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM all opened a hair above Tuesday’s close—call it Santa Rally on a diet. Under the hood, the real story is the curve: 2s/10s back to a positive slope with long end flexing while inflation expectations sit anchored around the mid-2s over 5–10 years. Translation: soft-landing odds still vibing, not a panic about policy surprises. Jobless claims under 200k for a third week says the consumer still has gas, while the Fed minutes hint they’re chilling on hikes after three cuts this year—time to let the stew simmer. Tech leads early (XLK firmer) as AI mega-cap chatter refuses to log off—Meta dealmaking, and the 2026 accelerator lane where Microsoft/Alphabet defend the throne and AMD eyes share. Financials (XLF) steady with a friendlier curve, Healthcare (XLV) a tad soft. Duration gets poked: TLT/IEF drift lower as yields tick up. Metals cool off: GLD a smidge red, SLV heavier after a face-melting year and whiplash week; all eyes on potential Jan 1 China moves that could skew silver supply for Big Tech/solar. Energy has a morning pump—USO firmer on evolving Russia-to-India flows; nat gas (UNG) snoozes. FX neutral-ish with EURUSD near 1.1742. Crypto puts in a respectable nod—BTC and ETH slightly green as the space recalibrates into 2026. Single-name spice: Nike pops on insider buys, while Tesla’s cautious Q4 outlook keeps EVs in the penalty box. Into the close of the year, watch the curve’s follow-through, any China/silver headlines, and next claims print. Quiet drift unless a surprise shows up.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 30, 2025 4:09pm (New York)

Markets drift lower into the close as metals rally; Fed minutes point to a prolonged pause

12/30/2025 04:09 PM • Market did a graceful power-down into the close—consolidation, not chaos. SPY -0.13%, QQQ -0.23%, DIA -0.20%, and small-caps face-planted with IWM -0.73%. The vibe: year-end chop, low juice, rotation roulette. Fed minutes basically said “on hold for some time,” and the curve obliged: 2Y ~3.46%, 10Y ~4.14%, 30Y ~4.81%. That’s a steeper setup that helps banks later, even if XLF took a nap today. Bonds echoed it: TLT -0.22%, IEF -0.10%, SHY barely green—term premium still sticky. Tech cooled (XLK -0.31%) but the AI drumbeat stayed loud: Meta deal-making, Nvidia licensing Groq talent, AMD eyeing accelerator gains, plus Microsoft’s steady ops and Apple’s memory sensitivity while Amazon lines up multi-engine growth. Feels like digestion, not derailment. Healthcare (XLV) was basically flat amid Medicare’s AI prior-auth pilot chatter. Commodities stole the show. Silver lit the afterburners—SLV +4.5%—on rebound energy, bubble debates, and China’s looming “silver weapon” supply angle. Gold edged up (GLD +0.10%), broad commodities flexed (DBC +0.67%), oil inched (USO +0.16%), nat gas ticked higher (UNG +0.50%). Geopolitics added a light risk premium backdrop. Autos headlines split the room—Tesla’s downbeat Q4 lens vs GM’s standout 2025—but small-cap weakness drowned out any clean rotation. Crypto stayed constructive: BTC around 87.9k and ETH near 2,957, both above opens despite mixed corporate-treasury headlines. Playbook into the turn: hold the range, respect the steep curve, and watch metals as the market’s stress valve. Eyes on Fed chatter, early-’26 data, AI deal flow/semis roadmaps, SLV/GLD/DBC momentum, and EV demand updates.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 30, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday Market: Equities mixed into year-end as precious metals surge, curve stays steep, AI headlines dominate

12/30/2025 01:34 PM • Midday tape = orderly chaos. SPY is basically a statue while QQQ holds a tiny green candle, but DIA drifts and IWM wheezes—classic late-year consolidation with big-growth steering and small caps riding in the trunk. The macro boss today is the yield curve: 2Y at 3.46%, 10Y at 4.14%, 30Y at 4.81%—steep and proud. That’s a 2026 tailwind for banks even if XLF is snoozing red now, and duration’s getting the side-eye (TLT/IEF a touch soft, SHY steady).

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 30, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks edge lower at the open as metals surge; bonds soften with long-end yields elevated

12/30/2025 09:33 AM • Last open of 2025 and the tape walks the dog: SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM all fractionally red, liquidity thin, vibes cautious. Rotation is the name of the game—financials catch a bid with a steeper long end, while tech is easing off the throttle, energy’s firmer, health care a touch wobbly. Big macro sets the stage: 10Y parked around 4.14% and 30Y near 4.81% in the latest snapshot, so duration gets bonked (TLT/IEF softer) while the front end chills (SHY flat). Inflation expectations still say “near-term sticky, long-term anchored” (about 3.2% 1Y fading to ~2.3–2.4% out the curve), which keeps the curve posture steepish and the growth trade sensitive. Metals are the morning headline—GLD ripping, SLV flying after Monday’s tumble. Strategists are split between “bubble?” and “structural squeeze,” so expect two-sided fireworks as year-end positioning collides with momentum. Energy joins the party: USO and UNG green, with geopolitical noise keeping a risk premium baked into fuels. Fed narrative is “hibernation” with a side of leadership uncertainty into 2026—translation: any hint on reaction functions can yank the wheel fast. Megacap/AI headlines pivot to 2026 execution: Apple margin math vs. memory, Amazon re-accel hopes, Microsoft hunting a fresh catalyst, Nvidia/AMD/Meta fanning the AI arms race—less vibes, more profits please. Crypto’s perky (BTC/ETH above opens) but still living with the 2025 drawdown hangover. Watch for: GLD/SLV follow-through vs. rug pulls, TLT for rate tell, and a financials-over-growth tilt if yields refuse to back down. Thin tape + tax trades = intraday whiplash potential.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 29, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks edge lower into the close as precious metals retreat; bonds firm and oil advances

12/29/2025 04:03 PM • Santa didn’t crash, he just eased off the gas. Into the final hour, thin holiday tape plus year-end tax/rebalance flows nudged stocks lower: SPY -0.36%, QQQ -0.48%, DIA -0.51%, and small-cap IWM led the slide at -0.62%. Sector tape was orderly: Energy eked green while Tech, Financials, and Health Care slipped. The big winner? Duration. With the 10Y parked near 4.17% and inflation expectations anchored, TLT/IEF/SHY all caught a bid—classic late-December “let bonds cook” price action as VIX naps into year-end. The fireworks were in commodities, and not the fun kind for bugs. Precious got clobbered: GLD -4.36%, SLV -7.14% as margin dynamics, thin liquidity, and tax-selling turned dips into slides. Energy bucked it: crude and nat gas firmed (USO +1.65%, UNG +1.91%), lifting XLE while the broad basket DBC sagged under the metals dump. Crypto joined the red team with BTC -3.31% and ETH -3.64%, while EURUSD barely moved—holiday mode engaged. Under the hood, the market’s whisper is “be selective.” The AI trade isn’t broken, just graduating—more proof over pitch in 2026 as Nvidia/AMD catalysts and Microsoft/Alphabet monetization color the next leg. Big picture: modest risk-off drip, duration strength, metals indigestion, energy resilience. Watch the Santa window into the first two sessions of 2026 and any macro surprise that shakes the soft-landing narrative. If seasonality re-ignites, beta gets another lap; if not, expect pickier leadership and sharper reactions, especially in crowded AI lanes and shiny rocks.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 29, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Stocks soften into the year-end stretch as precious metals slump; bonds firmer, energy bid

12/29/2025 01:33 PM • Santa rally took a coffee break at midday. Index ETFs eased after the monster YTD run: SPY drifts ~0.4%, QQQ ~0.6%, DIA ~0.5%, and small caps (IWM) lag. Classic thin-tape rotation: sell the shiny growth toys, hide in defensives. Utilities lead while tech and small caps catch their breath. Duration got a nibble as bonds firmed—TLT green with IEF/SHY slightly up—lining up with an upward-sloping curve (2y ~3.44%, 10y ~4.17%, 30y ~4.84%). That’s a cautious-but-stable vibe, not doom. The real action is in the vault: precious metals faceplanted. GLD dumped ~4.5% and SLV slid ~9.6% as the USD firmed (EURUSD near session lows). Year-end tax selling plus a “that surge looked unhinged” chorus finally bit; tape says validation. Energy bucked the trend. USO +, UNG + after reports Ukraine’s drones tagged Russia’s biggest gas processing plant—geopolitics adding a risk premium, especially for gas. Crypto joined the chill: BTC and ETH off with the risk-off draft and firmer dollar. Sector check: XLK soft despite hot AI headlines (NVDA/Groq licensing chatter, AMD ambitions); XLF slips; XLV near flat; utilities shine as investors prefer regulated cash flows over dreams. Tape tidbits: biotech roulette burned players after setrusumab trial news; GM celebrates its best stock year since the comeback; Tesla picks up fresh regulator noise on Model 3 doors; Target sentiment perks on an activist stake report. With the “fear gauge” near cycle lows and Santa season still on, this looks like orderly digestion—just remember, low vol plus thin liquidity can make any surprise hit harder into the New Year.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 29, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks edge lower at the open as bonds firm; gold and silver retreat while oil gains

12/29/2025 09:33 AM • Final, holiday-shortened lap of 2025 and the tape opens on chill mode. SPY drifts, QQQ takes the steeper slide, DIA shrugs, and IWM sags—classic post-rip consolidation while the “Santa” vibe cools. Under the hood it’s rotation theater: XLK bleeds while energy and health care keep their helmets on. Bonds are getting the love—TLT/IEF/SHY green—backed by a December snapshot of a ~4.17% 10Y and anchored inflation expectations in the 2–3% lane. Duration bid = multiple math gets a tiny boost, even as folks rebalance gains and mind taxes. Commodities are split like a wishbone: gold and silver just got a reality check after the pre-holiday sprint (GLD and SLV down hard), while crude and nat gas catch a bid (USO and UNG up) amid lingering geopolitical jitters. Broad commodities are softer as metals drag. FX says EURUSD a touch softer; crypto gets clipped with BTC and ETH both red—more year-end de-risk than doom. Headlines are all AI, all the time: AMD’s 2026 roadmap in focus, Nvidia/Alphabet/Microsoft chatter humming, and cybersecurity goes shopping with ServiceNow buying Armis for $7.75B. Autos show dispersion—GM’s banner year versus Tesla’s fresh scrutiny—another reminder it’s stock-picker season. What matters next: late-week macro (not specified) to test that gentle duration bid, whether tech underperforms into 2026’s “AI execution” era, if metals keep digesting, and whether dip-buyers show up in crypto. Thin liquidity plus tax moves can turn small waves into splashes—stay nimble.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 26, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Mixed finish as year-end rally cools: Small caps lag, gold and silver extend surge, oil slips

12/26/2025 04:03 PM • Santa still showed up, but the reindeer took a coffee break. Large caps hugged the highs while small caps face-planted into the close. SPY barely budged (just under flat), QQQ ticked lower after its heater, and DIA was statue-still. The pain was in IWM, which lagged as year-end rebalancing and tax games smacked the little guys. Under the hood: tech and health care stayed green, while financials and energy drifted red. Rates stayed duct-taped in place into year-end (10Y around 4.17%, 30Y near 4.84 as of 12/22), inflation expectations camped in the Fed’s comfort zone, and the VIX is dozing near lows—great until it isn’t. Precious metals stole the show: gold and silver went vertical into the holiday glow, with chatter turning from “constructive” to “careful, this got spicy” as tax-selling/profit-taking risk looms. Oil sagged while nat gas firmed, a geopolitical headline reminder (hello, supply shocks) that commodities can flip the script fast. Bonds were a push: long duration slipped, belly and front end firmed—textbook stable curve vibes. Crypto leaked lower into the close after a victory-lap year. Single-name fireworks: Nvidia stayed the AI quarterback (Groq licensing and 2026 data-center hype), ServiceNow swung big with a $7.75B Armis grab to bolt security onto AI workflows, Tesla sentiment tug-of-war (robotaxi dreams vs Model 3 door scrutiny), Nike got a morale boost from Tim Cook’s buy, Target caught a bid on Toms Capital news, and AMC made fresh lows. Watch next: Can Santa carry through the first two sessions of 2026, do metals keep sprinting, and does sleepy vol finally wake up?

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 26, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday market check: Stocks mixed as metals surge, long yields steady; ‘Santa Claus’ seasonality meets year-end positioning

12/26/2025 01:33 PM • Santa showed up…in a GPU. Midday tape is mixed and sleepy, with SPY barely red and QQQ a hair green while DIA and IWM eat coal. Tech owns the wheel again (XLK up) on steady AI hype—think Nvidia licensing chatter and data-center dreams—while financials sag and health care drifts. Rates are chill: curve positively sloped, 10-year near that 4.17% boss level, long bond anchored; TLT leaks a bit as front/belly hold steady. The real fireworks are in the shiny rocks: gold grinding higher and silver absolutely ripping, feeding “mania phase” talk into year-end. Commodities mixed otherwise: broad basket modestly green, but oil backs off despite geopolitics as nat gas catches a bid. Crypto took the day off—BTC and ETH both softer—while EURUSD ranges like it’s still on holiday. Seasonals are the main character: Santa window is open, VIX is dozing, and volume is thin enough that any rebalance/tax swing can slap the tape without warning. Bulls want SPY/QQQ to quietly levitate into New Year; breadth would love IWM to stop tripping. Watch metals for profit-taking vs. FOMO, the long end for any surprise re-price, and energy headlines for sudden inflation vibes. For now, it’s calm—tech steady, metals moonwalking, oil kneeling—and the market’s letting Santa do his thing as the clock runs down on the year.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 26, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks edge higher at the open as precious metals extend gains; bonds firm with 10-year near 4.17%

12/26/2025 09:34 AM • Final Friday vibes: indices tiptoe higher with Big Tech doing the backpack carry. SPY inches green, QQQ firmer, while DIA and IWM yawn red—classic Santa drift with selective breadth. Rates are the comfy blanket: 10-year parked near 4.17% with the 2-year ~3.44%, and inflation expectations anchored in the low-2s past five years. Result: TLT/IEF/SHY catching a polite bid and volatility snoozing. Sector rotation says megacap silicon still calls the shots—XLK up on AI infra chatter, semis in "time correction" not defeat. Healthcare’s soft even with weight‑loss headlines, financials flat with calm yields, and Energy’s taking a breather despite geopolitics. Shiny rocks stole the open: GLD grinding up and SLV ripping, with silver mania whispers getting louder. Careful—if real yields pop or the dollar flexes, that metal melt-up can U-turn. In commodities land, crude eases (USO down) while nat gas (UNG) pops on winter-demand vibes; DBC slightly higher. FX/crypto chillax: EURUSD fractionally up, BTC and ETH barely budge—holiday mode. Tape risk: complacency into 2026, K-shaped consumer, and AI capex dependency. Also lots of M&A murmur: ServiceNow swinging big in cyber, Alphabet hoarding power for AI data centers, and media megadeal rumors refuse to die. What matters next: keep one eye on the 10-year at ~4.17%, the other on XLK’s leadership, and don’t ignore metals FOMO versus rates. Thin holiday liquidity can make tiny sparks look like fireworks—manage the hopium.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 25, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

U.S. stocks edge higher into the holiday; yields steady, gold cools as silver extends run

12/25/2025 04:04 PM • Santa kept the sled in drive. Indices drifted higher into the holiday: SPY and QQQ both +0.3% while the boomer brigade (DIA) led at +0.6%, with IWM inching up too. Breadth was decent—tech, banks, health care, and utes all green—aka risk-on but with a side of safety. Macro stayed friendly: 2Y at 3.44% and 10Y at 4.17% with a positively sloped curve, 30Y near 4.84%. Inflation expectations are anchored (1y ~3.2%, 5y ~2.4%, 10y ~2.34%), and vol is napping, so bonds caught a light bid and multiples kept breathing. That’s your soft-landing starter pack. Commodities split: gold cooled after a pre-holiday heater while silver kept flexing; oil was basically flat and nat gas slipped. Crypto and the euro did the holiday shuffle inside tight ranges—no fireworks there. Single-name juice was in AI and defense. Nvidia expanded the empire with a non-exclusive Groq licensing deal and a talent scoot, reinforcing the AI buildout theme. Alphabet grabbed Intersect to lock down power for future data centers—electricity is the new moat. ServiceNow bought Armis for $7.75B to level up its AI control-tower pitch. Defense winner HII hit records on a Navy frigate contract. Novo Nordisk popped on an oral weight-loss move. On the chill list: Honeywell cut outlook after a settlement; Nike’s losing streak kept stretching despite an insider buy; AMC diluted again and slid to fresh lows; Tesla headlines bounced between regulators and robotaxi dreams; AST SpaceMobile ripped into launch hype. CWAN got a PE takeout, and Kroger boosted buybacks. Watch next: breadth beyond megacaps, whether long yields stay pinned, and AI’s new bottleneck—power. Metals leadership and any dollar turn can reshuffle the deck fast.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 25, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday Market: Equities lean higher into year-end as yields steady; precious metals cool at the margin while crypto and FX tread water

12/25/2025 01:33 PM • Santa didn’t clock out. Risk assets are cruising into the final laps with large caps steering and growth still in the driver’s seat. Christmas Eve prints showed broad green: SPY notched a fresh record, QQQ and DIA in tow, and IWM up but trailing—classic mega-cap carry. Under the hood, Tech is still the main character: AI hype has real receipts with Nvidia’s non-exclusive tie-up with Groq, ServiceNow dropping $7.75B on Armis to play “AI control tower,” and Alphabet gobbling infrastructure talent. Health Care’s getting love on Novo’s oral weight-loss pill buzz, while Financials enjoy a chill curve. Macro stays friendly. Yields are anchored (2Y 3.44%, 5Y 3.71%, 10Y 4.17%, 30Y 4.84%) with inflation expectations fading out toward ~2.3–2.4% on the long end. Low VIX and calmer bond vol = multiple support, as long as earnings don’t whiff. Duration caught a small bid (TLT/IEF/SHY up) and that keeps the AI-and-long-duration trade comfy. Commodities? Gold finally exhaled (GLD down a touch) while silver kept its swagger. Energy is mixed with USO flat-ish and nat gas (UNG) sliding. DBC says “meh,” matching the no-inflation-shock narrative. Dollar’s steady into a technical “golden cross,” which can lean against metals, and EURUSD is basically napping. Crypto’s in holiday mode: BTC hovering near 88k and ETH around 2,952 within tight ranges—consolidation vibes while equities hog the cheer. Watch the next sessions: seasonality is a tailwind (Santa window still open), 10Y near 4.17% is the line in the sand, and AI/health care catalysts are the juice. Low vol + high hopes = respect risk, but the tape’s still pointing sideways-to-up.

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