State of Market Reports (Page 2)

State of Maket Reports Page 2 of 7 • 171 articles

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 15, 2026 4:05pm (New York)

Stocks grind higher into the close as small caps lead; yields firm, oil slips, and precious metals cool

01/15/2026 04:05 PM • Breadth finally showed up to work. IWM led the pack (+0.87%) while SPY, QQQ, and DIA all drifted higher into the bell — a green grind with small caps carrying the water instead of just the megacap usuals. Under the hood, yields firmed in a mild bear‑steepener: 10Y parked near 4.18% and 30Y around 4.83%, pressing the belly (IEF, SHY red) while the long end (TLT) stayed calm. Translation: risk appetite broadened, but bonds reminded everyone growth isn’t dead. Tech and Financials did the lifting. XLK rode chip hype after TSMC’s “thumping” quarter and AI capex chatter, even as software sentiment stayed mixed with AI monetization questions and Adobe fatigue. XLF inched up on resilient bank color: mixed prints, still‑okay consumer, and BlackRock’s AUM flex. Health Care lagged — policy noise, GLP‑1 stickiness debates — even as Boston Scientific went shopping for Penumbra. Energy was the quirky one: XLE green despite crude red, a sign positioning and single‑name juice trumped barrels today. Commodities cooled overall: USO -2% as de‑escalation headlines shaved oil’s risk premium; GLD and SLV took profit after a hot streak. Dollar firmer (EURUSD down), crypto eased off recent highs after shorts got cleaned out — BTC/ETH still lofty but catching a breath. Macro backdrop stays soft‑landing‑ish: jobless claims sub‑200k, inflation expectations anchored near the Fed’s lane, and mortgage rates at multi‑year lows teeing up housing. Watch next: bank earnings follow‑through, AI capex and software revenue proof, tariff pass‑through in prices, housing momentum, and any geopolitical curveballs that could jerk energy and rates. Selective risk still gets the tendies; mind your duration.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 15, 2026 1:35pm (New York)

Midday Market: Equities Push Higher as Tech and Small Caps Lead; Oil and Precious Metals Ease While Bitcoin Holds Near $96K

01/15/2026 01:35 PM • Risk-on reboot at lunch. SPY +0.66%, QQQ +1.04%, DIA +0.79%, and IWM +1.27% say the tape wants both growth and cyclicals. Yields nudged up (10Y ~4.18%, 30Y ~4.83%) but stocks are shrugging thanks to sub-200k jobless claims and anchored inflation expectations (1y ~2.6%, 5y/10y ~2.3%). Tech is quarterbacking: XLK +1.6% as semis feast on a thumping TSMC quarter and a bigger 2026 AI capex plan. Under the hood it’s rotation season—memory names stealing some shine while Nvidia underperforms the chip pack. Financials join the party: XLF green with BAC edging past estimates and sounding upbeat, C popping despite a profit miss (Russia charges), GS profit beat but revenue down with Apple Card drag, and WFC missing revenue yet laying out a new profit target. Long-end yields help NIMs, credit still the test. Health care lags: XLV -0.7% as Boston Scientific’s $14.5B Penumbra buy stirs M&A dispersion. Energy stocks rise even as crude cools—USO -1.4% on de-escalation signals with Iran—while XLE rides positioning and dividend love. Breadth improves: small caps rip on three-year-low mortgage rates juicing housing, plus firm retail sales and that claims print. Bonds mixed (TLT up, IEF/SHY slightly softer) as the curve stays the final boss for valuations. Metals cool off (GLD, SLV red), DBC softer with base metals catching breath. Dollar a tad firmer. Crypto steady after the squeeze: BTC chilling near 96K, ETH around 3.3K—risk-friendly backdrop. Into earnings, watch yields, the chip rotation, housing follow-through, and tariff pass-through as the spoiler for disinflation.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 15, 2026 9:34am (New York)

U.S. stocks open higher as tech leads; long duration bids, oil and silver ease

01/15/2026 09:34 AM • Risk-on at the bell with tech grabbing the wheel. SPY pops ~0.6% and QQQ rips ~1.2% as semis and AI supply chains get fresh protein powder from TSMC’s beat/raised outlook and bigger AI capex. XLK leads hard (+~1.6%), while boomer Dow (DIA) and small caps (IWM) tag along but can’t keep up. Under the hood, long duration’s getting love—TLT bid—even as headlines chatter about higher yields. That combo (duration bid + firmer dollar) is a warm blanket for high-multiple names. Inflation expectations stay anchored, jobless claims dipped sub-200k, and the consumer still swipes—growth vibes without a panic spike in term yields. Clean tape for now. Financials are steady-eddy (XLF +~0.2%): mixed single-name noise (Goldman revenue wobble vs. Citi resilience), but the street still likes banks with a real term premium and record AUM momentum at the big dogs. Healthcare (XLV) opens softer despite spicy M&A—Boston Scientific scooping Penumbra—classic “deal pop in the target, yawns in the ETF.” Energy (XLE) ekes gains even as crude cools after calmer Iran chatter; balance sheets and buybacks doing the heavy lifting. Commodities take a lap: silver gets smacked, gold drifts, broad basket (DBC) softer. Dollar flexes against the euro, tightening the screws on metals. Meanwhile, crypto stays lively—bitcoin and ether keep grinding after bears got squeezed to the rafters—adding a little extra risk-on seasoning. Watch semis for follow-through, banks as earnings widen, and the curve—another bid in TLT keeps the multiple machine humming; a yield backup could slam the brakes.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 14, 2026 4:11pm (New York)

Stocks slip as tech lags and financials stay soft; small caps, health care and energy buck the trend

01/14/2026 04:11 PM • Close bell came with a rotation slap: megacap tech face-planted while small caps did laps. SPY drifted -0.5%, QQQ ate -1.1%, DIA napped -0.1%, and IWM flexed +0.7%. Under the hood, XLK bled as software/AI darlings cooled, while health care (XLV) and energy (XLE) wore the crown. Financials stayed soggy despite mixed bank headlines. Rates backdrop stayed spicy: curve’s positively sloped with 2Y at 3.54%, 10Y at 4.19%, 30Y at 4.83%, yet duration got bought anyway (TLT +0.6%). Beige Book chatter says tariff pass-through is heating up, CPI levels are still elevated, but breakevens/expectations remain anchored near the Fed’s target (1y ~2.60%, 5y ~2.33%, 10y ~2.32%). Translation: sticky prices, steady expectations, and a safety bid in bonds. Commodities went split-screen. Gold kept shining (GLD +1.0%) and silver went full rocket (+7.6% SLV) on breakout buzz, while oil eased (USO -1.2%) and nat gas cratered (UNG -9.6%). Crypto rode the hard-asset vibe with BTC +2.5% and ETH +1.3%. Corporate catalysts did the steering: China’s reported cybersecurity squeeze dinged FTNT and PANW; large-cap software lagged with ADBE/CRM under AI monetization scrutiny. In banks, C popped despite a headline miss, but payments felt heat with V/MA on routing-policy worries. Industrials/defense were the winners’ circle: BA flew on orders, LHX ripped on a government-backed missile-motor angle. Energy flexed despite oil down as XOM tagged new highs. Airlines stayed choppy with DAL slipping on a revenue miss. Big picture: rotation is alive, duration’s a hedge, and shiny rocks plus crypto caught the bid. Watch bank guidance, tariff headlines, Middle East premium, and whether small caps keep the torch.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 14, 2026 4:07pm (New York)

Small caps and defensives buck tech-led selloff; bonds and precious metals bid into the close

01/14/2026 04:07 PM • Rotation nation. Into the close, megacap tech took the header while the small-cap gremlins ran the table. SPY drifted red and QQQ slid harder, but IWM wore the crown as defensives and duration caught a bid. Long end stayed lofty, yet buyers showed up anyway with the 10-year hovering near 4.19%—classic “higher-for-longer, but I’ll take my coupon” vibes. That bond bid synced with Utilities and Health Care flexing while XLK ate its veggies. AI angst everywhere: a bank says Microsoft looks underpriced but the tape isn’t treating it like a clear AI final boss, Google tossed “Personal Intelligence” into Gemini, and software skepticism flared with Adobe at multiyear lows and Salesforce softer. Financials stayed meh as mixed bank prints met payments heat—Visa/Mastercard slid on routing-mandate worries—leaving XLF marginally lower. Geopolitics piled on with China-linked cybersecurity headlines smacking that cohort. Meanwhile, precious metals went full shine: gold climbed, silver absolutely sent it with outsized gains and rising margins—a momentum rocket that can cut both ways. Energy commodities lagged (oil and nat gas down), yet Exxon notched a new high in separate coverage—company-specific beats commodity tape. Crypto rode the bid with BTC and ETH pushing near session highs, echoing the metals hedge trade while EURUSD did a whole lot of nothing. Policy risk is the main character: Beige Book flagged tariff pass-through, central bankers rallied behind Powell, and tariff court-watching keeps everyone jumpy. Watch 10-year ~4.2% as the leadership pivot, earnings from banks/big tech to confirm this rotation, silver’s hot-hand sustainability, and any new hits from payments routing or cybersecurity restrictions.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 14, 2026 1:33pm (New York)

Midday market check: Tech-heavy benchmarks lag as energy and precious metals rally; bonds firmer with long-end yields elevated

01/14/2026 01:33 PM • Midday tape is a risk-recalibration special: growth bros take a timeout while real assets and duration flex. SPY and DIA drip red as QQQ faceplants, exactly what you get when the long end stays thicc and AI monetization vibes look squishier. Meanwhile, IWM is that scrappy cousin sneaking green on hopes of easier financing and domestic juice. Energy and healthcare grab the wheel; tech hands over the keys. Silver’s doing a victory lap, gold’s steady shining, oil catches a geopolitical tailwind, and nat gas… didn’t get the memo. Bond bulls are back: TLT and IEF bid with inflation expectations anchored in the low-2s even as the 30Y hangs elevated — perfect recipe for duration ballast and a quality tilt. Banks drop mixed beats: JPM/BAC strong, WFC meh, C wrestling a Russia-related hit. Financials still sag as the crowd weighs curve dynamics and headline risk from card-routing/APR chatter. In Techland, platform wars escalate with Google’s Gemini “Personal Intelligence” poking Apple, while software heavyweights face side-eye until AI turns into actual cash, not just spicy decks. Industrials/Aero get a lift from Boeing order momentum; Delta’s revenue wobble is a reminder that execution matters even in decent travel demand. Crypto stays quirky-green with BTC and ETH grinding higher, EURUSD flat like it’s on lunch break. Big picture: classic rotation — energy and metals lead, bonds bid, growth cools. What’s next? Earnings breadth (especially banks now, software soon), Fed path optics and independence chatter, and whether silver/gold momentum holds if trading costs bite. Keep eyes on Middle East headlines for oil and on guidance for proof that AI spend equals real revenue. Defense with a dash of degen is winning the noon hour.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 14, 2026 9:34am (New York)

U.S. stocks open softer as metals extend gains; bond prices firm and oil edges up

01/14/2026 09:34 AM • Soft open, spicy under the hood. Indexes drifted lower with QQQ taking the heaviest backpack as mega-cap tech cools off, while small caps and the Dow hold up better. Meanwhile, the metals gang showed up like it’s their birthday: silver ripped and gold glowed, oil caught a risk-premium bid, and nat gas face-planted. Duration got a tiny hug—Treasury ETFs up a hair—even with the curve still lofty (10Y around the low-4s, 30Y upper-4s). Translation: tug-of-war between sticky producer costs and inflation expectations chilling in the mid-2s, plus Fed drama simmering in the background. Tech rotation is the story: software darlings Salesforce and Adobe under pressure as AI math gets re-marked, while the silicon crowd gets love with fresher bull notes on AMD and Intel. Broader AI stack (MSFT/ORCL/NOW) looks like a post-rally breather. Cyber names took a geopolitical chill pill on Beijing headlines. Financials opened soft despite beefy prints from JPM and BAC; WFC’s revenue miss and policy heat on card economics keep a lid on XLF, even as C pops on investors looking through one-offs. Industrials are split: Delta stumbled on revenue, Boeing keeps stacking orders and momentum, defense/space picks-and-shovels stay hot. Energy sector flat, but crude’s firmer; Exxon flexed new highs. Health care is steady while the GLP-1 drumbeat keeps booming. FX/crypto mixed with a mild Bitcoin bid. What’s next: bank earnings for credit and capital clues, media M&A fireworks, card-network regulation risk, and any headline that pokes Fed credibility. For now, metals and oil are the hedge, chips are the hope, and software is in the penalty box.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 13, 2026 4:10pm (New York)

Stocks ease into the close as policy headlines and earnings crosscurrents temper risk appetite; bonds firm and commodities diverge

01/13/2026 04:10 PM • Market threw it in reverse before CPI. SPY/QQQ bled a little, DIA took the biggest bruise, IWM barely nicked. Bonds caught a comfy bid (TLT/IEF/SHY green) as Fed-independence headlines kept rate watchers hedged and the curve’s upslope stayed the talking point. Commodities were a mood swing: oil and silver flexed, gold took a breather. Dollar a tad firmer, crypto majors kept grinding higher. Financials were the laggards. Card-routing noise and a fresh debate about capping credit-card APRs at 10% hit the payments/banking vibe. JPM kicked off earnings with a beat and “economy still resilient,” but policy overhang drowned out the cheer. Tech eased even with the AI hype machine at full volume. NVDA got crowned a top pick on relative underperformance, AMD/INTC earned nods on server and AI chip dynamics, and software/platforms (MSFT/ORCL/NOW) plus AMZN ads got love. AAPL’s Gemini talk tried to sprinkle AI magic on the iPhone story. Still, XLK closed lower—positioning trimmed ahead of data > headlines today. Health care slipped as GLP-1 drumbeats continue in the background. Travel complex split: DAL got dinged on a revenue miss despite profit, while BA rode orders/deliveries momentum to recent two-year highs. Energy stayed hot: USO pumped on Strait of Hormuz premium and U.S.–Iran tensions; XOM notched fresh highs despite Venezuela chatter; a court greenlight gave renewables a small gust. Bottom line: measured de-risking into CPI and earnings, bonds bid, stocks softer, dispersion high. If CPI is sticky, brace for choppier tape; if it cools, risk and duration get the green light.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 13, 2026 4:05pm (New York)

Stocks fade into the close as Financials lag, Energy and commodities firm; bonds catch a small bid

01/13/2026 04:05 PM • Market tip-toed red into the bell. SPY -0.2%, QQQ -0.17%, DIA -0.81% (Dow the day’s scapegoat), IWM basically flat. Under the hood it was rotation station: Financials (XLF -1.9%) got clipped by renewed card-routing and APR-cap chatter; JPM’s beat couldn’t save the group. Tech (XLK -0.2%) drifted while AI thinkpieces flew—chips (Nvidia/AMD/Intel) and software (Microsoft/Oracle/ServiceNow) got love, but the tape stayed picky. Energy (XLE +0.65%) flexed as crude climbed on Strait of Hormuz tensions, and Exxon printed fresh highs. Health Care (XLV -0.43%) slipped on mixed GLP-1 and preannounce noise. Bonds caught a small bid: TLT +0.14%, IEF +0.11%, SHY +0.04%. The 10Y hovered near 4.18%, curve still not inspiring. Breakevens hang in the low-2s while a model 1-year reads 3.2%—translation: sticky short-term, anchored long-term. Fed cut timing and independence headlines kept hedges strapped on. Commodities outperformed: USO +2.54% and DBC +0.77% led the charge. Gold eased (GLD -0.14%) while Silver outpaced (SLV +1.75%); UNG +1.16%. Crypto rode the duration/commodities vibe—BTC ~94,410 (+3.3%) and ETH ~3,203 (+2.7%). News tape highlights: Visa/Mastercard wobbly on routing/cap worries; Boeing cheered orders; Delta dipped on revenue miss; L3Harris hit records off a $1B federal investment; Walmart buzzed on NDX inclusion and AI; Paramount vs. WBD legal chess; Palantir in courtroom headlines. Bottom line: this was risk rebalancing into bank earnings and a pivotal CPI. Oil and crypto up, Financials down, bonds breathing. Play the rotations, respect the catalysts, and keep dry powder for data drops.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 13, 2026 1:33pm (New York)

Midday market: Small-caps firm as mega-cap benchmarks ease; bonds bid, commodities advance

01/13/2026 01:33 PM • Midday tape doing the splits: small-caps flex, mega-caps cool off. SPY and QQQ are both off ~0.3%, DIA lags ~0.7%, while the little guys (IWM) sneak green ~0.2%. Rotation vibes as energy/industrials hog headlines, policy risk keeps hands near the eject button, and earnings season warms up. Financials are the punching bag: XLF -1.7% as credit-card routing reform and a proposed APR cap spook banks and payments—even with a constructive early read from JPM’s results. Tech is just a tad soggy (XLK ~-0.3%) despite analyst love for semis and AI themes (shoutout AMD, Intel). Healthcare drags (XLV), while utilities (XLU) catch a defensive bid. Bonds got that “treat me nice” energy—TLT and IEF up ~0.2% as yields ease; the last 10Y print was 4.18% (Jan 9) with the curve still kinked and medium-term inflation expectations glued near 2.3–2.4%. Commodities are the day’s drip: USO pops ~2.8% on Middle East/Hormuz risk and energy chatter, SLV rips ~1.9% while GLD chills flat, and DBC is firm. UNG ticks higher, too. Single-name chatter: Exxon hits a new high despite Venezuela noise; Boeing’s orders and 2025 delivery cadence in focus; Delta beat but got dinged on softer adjusted rev; Visa/Mastercard slide on routing/APR headlines. Meanwhile, crypto degen corner is buzzing—BTC and ETH up ~2%+. Policy drama’s the wildcard: Powell probe backlash keeps Fed independence front and center, a senator threatens to block nominees, and a tariff ruling could drop any minute. Next catalysts: CPI, bank guidance on credit/deposits, AI monetization in tech, and whether oil/silver momentum stays spicy.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 13, 2026 9:35am (New York)

Stocks open mixed as CPI looms; bonds, gold and oil bid to start the day

01/13/2026 09:35 AM • Mixed open with a side of jitters as the CPI mini-boss lurks. SPY inches up, QQQ flatlining, DIA a hair soft, while IWM leads the warm-up lap — classic “risk-on, but keep the seatbelt on.” Bonds grabbed the spotlight: TLT/IEF/SHY all bid as yields ease into the print, with the 10-year last seen around 4.18%. Near-term inflation still “sticky,” but 5–10 year expectations chilling near 2.3% keeps the long end comfy and the curve modestly steep. Translation: front end twitchy, belly/long ready to party on a soft read. Sector tape says “measured rotation.” XLK steady (no mega-cap tantrum), XLV firmer as a dependable late-cycle friend, and XLF a shade lower despite JPMorgan’s beat — policy headlines (hello, proposed 10% credit-card APR cap) keep the boomer banks rangebound until guidance clears the fog. Industrials getting the juice: Boeing rides order momentum and delivery vibes to a two-year high; airlines are a mixed bag with Delta pressured on a revenue miss while Allegiant goes shopping for Sun Country (~$1.5B). Cross-asset hedges are loud: GLD/SLV pop, oil’s firm on geopolitics, nat gas drifts. Crypto’s green too — BTC and ETH catching the “hedge me” flow alongside metals and duration. Macro/policy overhangs are the wildcards: Powell’s independence gets public backup while the DOJ probe noise and a possible Supreme Court tariff ruling by Wednesday spice the event calendar. Playbook: Watch shelter/services in CPI. Upside surprise = front end slapped, Financials cautious. Downside print = belly/long rip, higher-duration equities get tailwinds. Stay nimble, carry hedges, and let the data roll.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 12, 2026 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks grind higher into the close as metals surge; banks lag ahead of earnings and CPI watch

01/12/2026 04:04 PM • Two-track market, one vibe: cautious green for stonks, full send for shiny rocks. SPY, QQQ, and DIA inched higher while IWM flexed small-cap beta leadership. Under the hood, Financials tripped on the way into bank earnings—classic pre-print nerves—while Tech drifted modestly higher on nonstop AI chatter and “show me the money” 2026 vibes. Health Care sat still like it forgot to clock in. Long-duration Treasurys bled again (TLT, IEF down, SHY flat) as the street braced for a stickier CPI read and a little extra policy risk premium. Translation: duration took the L; equities and real assets took the ball. Metals stole the show. Gold kept stacking wins and silver went full turbo, helped by a softer dollar and a market hedging the DOJ-Powell drama and geopolitical noise. Energy joined the party—oil ground up on Venezuela/Iran headlines and nat gas ripped like it found caffeine—feeding that “maybe this supercycle isn’t just a campfire story” narrative. Crypto sat out the rally, with BTC and ETH drifting lower even as stocks and commodities played nice. What’s next: CPI is the boss fight. Hot print? Duration gets smoked again and rate-sensitive corners wobble. Cool or inline? The slow melt-up resumes and bonds catch a breather. First wave of bank earnings right behind it—watch deposit betas, NII guides, credit normalization, and capital return tea leaves. Until then: diamond hands for hedges, paper hands for complacency.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 12, 2026 1:34pm (New York)

Midday Market: Precious metals surge; tech leads while financials lag as policy uncertainty rises

01/12/2026 01:34 PM • Midday vibe: shiny rocks blasting off, tech doing the heavy lifting, and banks taking the walk of shame. SPY sneaks +0.15%, QQQ jogs +0.24%, DIA is basically a screensaver, and small-caps flex with IWM +0.37%. Big rotation: XLK leads as the AI church stays open, while XLF sinks into earnings and Fed noise. The real fireworks are in metals—gold ripping and silver going turbo—as policy drama sparks a haven hunt. The curve stays steep vs the front end (2y 3.49%, 5y 3.74%, 10y 4.19%, 30y 4.85%). Inflation expectations are calm around 2.2%–2.4% long run, with a hotter 1-year near 3.2%. Translation: not an inflation freakout—this is term premium, supply, and policy headlines doing the tango. Bonds sag a touch (TLT/IEF down), matching that 10-year near 4.19%. Commodities carry momentum: oil and broad baskets firmer, nat gas ripping. Tech headlines keep the momentum humming: reports say Apple locked a Gemini tie-up, a potential spark for its AI story; chatter favors Amazon/Meta as 2026 standouts, with Oracle and Amazon getting love as under-the-hood AI infrastructure. Media drama adds spice—Paramount vs WBD with Netflix as the yardstick bid—prime time for governance chaos. Retail splits: Walmart’s AI + index glow-up versus Abercrombie cooling on guidance tweaks. What matters next: Big-bank earnings (watch NII, credit, trading/IB, costs), the Fed-vs-DOJ saga that’s juicing gold, and fresh AI catalysts to keep tech in the driver’s seat. Small-cap follow-through = real breadth; energy geopolitics keeps a floor under oil.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 12, 2026 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open lower as Fed probe jitters lift gold; banks and tech slip ahead of earnings

01/12/2026 09:34 AM • Opening bell served a risk-off special. DOJ pokes the Fed, Powell calls it a threat to independence, and traders grab shiny rocks like it’s Black Friday. GLD rips +1.75% and SLV sprints +5.3% while stocks slip across the board. SPY -0.45%, QQQ -0.55%, DIA -0.67%, IWM -0.48%—broad fade with a policy-jitters garnish. Financials lead the dump (XLF -1.35%) into a heavy bank-earnings week as the street braces for NII, credit, fees, and buyback talk to either save the day or smash hopes. Tech drifts (XLK -0.55%) as rotation away from last year’s darlings continues—Intel buzzes, Apple debate lingers, AI infra still the main character but in digestion mode. Energy stocks (XLE -0.42%) lag even with commodities ok: USO +0.19% and UNG +2.4%. Defensives peep green (XLV +0.07%) as GLP-1 distribution headlines keep the health-care drumbeat alive. Bonds aren’t your hero today: TLT -0.52%, IEF -0.17%, SHY flat—implying a nudge higher in yields versus Friday. Reference marks still show 10Y ~4.19% and 30Y ~4.85% as of Jan 8, with medium-term inflation expectations anchored near 2–2.5%, but policy noise is steering the wheel. FX and crypto echo the vibe: EURUSD a touch firmer, while BTC and ETH dip as gold steals the hedge crown. Playbook: watch bank earnings for the first real macro tell, keep an eye on Powell headlines for whipsaws, and track AI capex signals for when tech decides to re-take the baton. Bottom line: gold flexing, banks and megacap wobbling, bonds not bailing you out—trade the rotations, respect the headlines.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 9, 2026 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks climb into the weekend as mega-cap tech steadies, silver surges, and long-duration Treasurys gain

01/09/2026 04:04 PM • Green candles into the weekend. SPY +0.7%, QQQ +1.0%, DIA +0.5%, IWM +0.8% as mega-cap tech steadied and breadth actually showed up. Long end rallied—TLT +0.7%, IEF +0.1%, SHY flat—aka multiple expansion juice for growth. XLK led +1.3%, XLE rode firmer crude +1.2%, while XLF (-0.3%) and XLV (-0.5%) ate some humble pie. Mortgage bazooka chatter dominated: average 30-year slipped under 6% for the first time in three years after signals that “representatives” would scoop $200B in MBS. That’s a tailwind for housing affordability and originations, but banks could feel net-interest margin squeeze if long yields keep sliding. Oil had a weekly glow-up (~3% on the week) with Venezuela/Iran narratives and a White House meetup with majors; USO inched higher. Defense did the whipsaw—pushback on buybacks/dividends, then a pledge to lift the budget by 50% sparked a rebound—still headline-driven. Chips and AI vibes carried tech: White House kudos for Intel, brokers pumping AI leaders and optical plays; Alphabet touted as an AI stalwart while Apple works through recent pressure with a refreshed AI pitch. Shiny things flexed: GLD +0.7%, and SLV ripped +3.8% on precious-plus-industrial demand. Nat gas faceplanted (UNG -7.7%); broad commodities were basically flat. Crypto didn’t get the memo: BTC -0.8%, ETH -1.4%. Consumer sentiment ticked up, tepid jobs keep Fed-cut hopes alive, and the pre-release data protocol kerfuffle adds headline risk. Into next week: watch the MBS plan’s transmission to mortgage rates, outcomes from the oil-majors huddle, defense budget follow-through vs capital-return rules, and the labor/sentiment drip. For now, long-end easing + tech/energy leadership = constructive tape.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 9, 2026 1:34pm (New York)

Midday Market: Broad Equity Gains With Tech and Small Caps Leading; Long Duration Treasuries, Gold and Oil Catch a Bid

01/09/2026 01:34 PM • Midday tape = green glow-up. SPY +0.6%, QQQ +0.9%, IWM +0.9% — growth and small caps grabbed the wheel while DIA tags along. Tech (XLK) leads on semi/AI cheer (Intel got a nod, brokers hyped Nvidia/Broadcom), and Energy (XLE) rides crude’s bounce into the White House oil meetup at 2:30 p.m. ET. Health Care (XLV) is flat to slightly red despite GLP-1 chatter, and Financials (XLF) lag even with the curve steeper out back. Breadth says rotation isn’t dead; laggards getting CPR while some mega-cap favorites catch a timeout. Apple still heavy, but the rally’s broadening keeps bulls in control. Macro backdrop: long end still tall (2Y 3.47%, 10Y 4.15%, 30Y 4.82%), yet duration buyers showed up — TLT +0.6%, IEF a hair green, SHY flat. Inflation expectations are anchored near ~2.2–2.3% in the medium/long run, with near-term ~3.2% — enough room for stocks to run while the long end stays spicy. Consumer sentiment perked up and jobless claims are still low, supporting the soft-landing script. Commodities: Gold glides, silver sprints (SLV +3%+), and USO climbs; nat gas faceplants (UNG -5%+). Crypto sits out — BTC/ETH a touch red — while the dollar firms a smidge intraday. Policy circus fuels the rotations: tariff uncertainty (possible Supreme Court twist), a floated $200B GSE MBS buy, Venezuela oil chess, and defense-budget noise. Energy pumps, defense-adjacent sentiment whipsaws, rate-sensitive pockets sniff easing. Eyes on 2:30 p.m. oil headlines, tariff rulings, and any mortgage-bond details. For now it’s risk-on with hedges: stocks up, duration bid, metals shining. Keep stops tight — one headline can flip factor leadership in a heartbeat.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 9, 2026 9:35am (New York)

Stocks edge higher at the open as softer jobs tone supports rate-cut hopes; small caps lead, metals rally

01/09/2026 09:35 AM • Rate-cut hopium unlocked at the bell. December jobs came in sleepy, and that’s all the market needed: SPY, QQQ, DIA green, but IWM is doing laps — breadth back, rotation on, last year’s darlings getting rotated for the underdogs. The curve’s normalizing vibes are loud: 10Y parked near 4.15% towering over 2Y ~3.47%, with inflation expectations chilling in the low-2s. Real yields still positive, bonds steady — macro mix says “gradual easing” not “panic.” Sectors tiptoe higher with XLF/XLK/XLV all up modestly. Precious metals leading the charge — gold firm, silver outmuscling everything. Oil nudging higher, nat gas taking a nap. Crypto easing while equities lean risk-on; FX quiet with euro a touch soft. Chips caught a headline sugar rush — INTC cheered after a presidential shoutout, while notes say Big Tech valuations look less spicy post-pullback even as an AI capex test looms in 2026. Alphabet and Amazon flagged as next-leg AI agent winners, but the tape favors small/cyclicals early. Cyber’s a mixed bag: CRWD broke its streak, PANW/peers bounced earlier this week — guidance will decide the next candle. Defense is a policy yo-yo: LMT and NOC whipsawed on dividend/buyback chatter vs a big budget promise. Retail split: COST flexed on strong December; NKE dinged on slower turnaround and China overhang. Staples under the nutrition microscope (KHC/MDLZ/PEP). Autos recalibrating EV dreams — GM takes another write-down while F talks eyes-off driving on a $30k EV by 2028. Power twist: NVDA’s efficiency could cool some liquid-cooling names. Nuclear cameo: OKLO ripped after META inked its first big deal — AI needs juice. Watch next: wage/participation internals, the $200B FNMA/FMCC MBS mechanics for mortgage-rate relief, and earnings on AI spend, power buildouts, and consumer stamina. Rotation and dispersion are the meta.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 8, 2026 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks close mixed as cyclicals and small caps advance while tech consolidates; commodities firm, long-duration bonds ease

01/08/2026 04:03 PM • Rotation nation. Indexes looked sleepy, but under the hood it was full-on style drift: SPY basically flat, QQQ took a breather, while the Dow and small caps did the heavy lifting. Steeper curve vibes kept banks smiling as the long end stayed spicy (10Y around 4.18%, 30Y near 4.86), which translated into TLT/IEF red and a little pressure on duration-heavy mega-cap tech. Financials and energy caught a bid; tech cooled after a hot streak. Commodities strutted in with oil up, broad baskets firmer, gold shining while silver slipped, and nat gas hitting the snooze button. AI headlines stayed loud even as XLK cooled: Alphabet got the crown over Apple and the 2026 AI baton, BofA hyped Amazon for autonomous agents, and Intel ripped as the trade broadened. Cyber had choppy momentum with CrowdStrike breaking its win streak even after earlier breadth nods that included Palo Alto. Cyclicals had torque: GM got an upgrade on EV strategy, Ford teased eyes-off autonomy later this decade, and Boeing kept the Dow juiced with big Alaska Airlines order chatter and buy-the-dip talk. Defensives were choppy as budget-boost noise clashed with possible buyback limits; healthcare sagged on pharma headwinds and staples took a hit from new dietary guidelines. Big watch ahead: Friday jobs. Hot wages/payrolls could steepen the curve more and ding duration/tech; a cooler print helps growth and long duration. Also on deck: Supreme Court tariff drama, Venezuela energy policy swings, defense guidance, and earnings season updates on AI capex and productivity. Rotation over reversal remains the tape’s vibe.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 8, 2026 1:34pm (New York)

Midday Market: Rotation lifts Dow and small caps as tech consolidates; oil advances, silver and gas slide

01/08/2026 01:34 PM • Classic rotation tape. SPY is flat-lined while QQQ bleeds as mega-cap tech cools, and the boomer brigade (DIA) plus small caps (IWM) take the wheel. Rates are the anchor: 10-year camped at 4.18% with the curve inverted through the belly and steeper out long—soft-landing vibes, not recession panic. Breakevens hover ~2.25% while 1-year inflation sits near 3.2%, keeping the Fed on data-watch. Labor prints back the middle path: ADP +41k, layoffs still historically low, services hiring reappears—just enough juice for cyclicals without demanding duration as a hedge. Policy fog keeps a lid on the indices. SCOTUS could touch tariffs as soon as Friday; Treasury’s Bessent is pumping the tariff stance and calling for more cuts. Health care headlines fly as the House eyes ACA subsidy extensions; XLV drifts. Energy’s the spicy bit: Venezuela chatter is messy on execution and quality, but oil still rips (USO +~2%) while nat gas gets stuffed (UNG -~4.7%). Industrials catch a tailwind off Alaska Airlines’ record Boeing order, helping DIA. Tech leaders pause (XLK red) despite AI hype, with legal noise around Musk/OpenAI/Microsoft adding governance overhang. Financials firm alongside a steady belly. Duration slips (TLT, IEF down) while SHY flat—real yields positive, so earnings need to carry valuations from here. Metals split: gold flat, silver smacked. FX steady; crypto bifurcates with BTC up and ETH softer. Watch next: Friday jobs, any SCOTUS tariff shock, and oil’s mood swings. Until then, expect choppy rotation favoring boomer value and domestically levered small caps over long-duration growth.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 8, 2026 9:35am (New York)

Stocks edge lower at the open as investors digest yields near 4.2% on the 10-year, soft early read on jobs, and crosscurrents in oil and defense

01/08/2026 09:35 AM • Market hit the brakes at the open after record intraday highs. SPY/QQQ barely red (~0.1%), but the Dow and small caps took the bigger slap (~0.4%). This is a vibe check, not a rug pull. Long end yields stayed thicc with the 10Y hovering near 4.18% and the curve actually positive, so duration got pinched (TLT down), and banks still yawned instead of mooning. Tech exhaled as XLK eased ~0.5%—AI/chip chatter still loud (Intel buzz, Nvidia moat talk), but leadership is rotating, not vanishing. Financials and healthcare are modestly lower, small caps underperforming fits the risk-trim mood. Energy is the paradox of the day: crude’s bid on Venezuela headline tennis, but XLE is meh as equity folks want real timelines, not vibes. Nat gas sagged, while precious metals took a header—gold down, silver down more—classic higher real rates energy. Bonds slipped in line with firm yields; next big move waits on Friday’s payrolls and any spicy revisions. Labor tea leaves are mixed: ADP’s +41k was soft, services hiring perked for the first time in months, and higher earners are sweating job security—watch discretionary. Defense names are on policy ping-pong (dividends/buybacks chatter vs bigger budget), staples caught a policy jab over ultraprocessed food, and earlier cyber strength (CrowdStrike/Palo Alto) hints at improving breadth. Crypto eased with risk; EURUSD sits mid‑1.16s. What’s next: NFP, AHE, and participation for rate path; Venezuela/defense headlines for sector whips; earnings season for reality checks. Don’t chase—let the data drive.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 7, 2026 4:09pm (New York)

Stocks finish mixed as tech edges higher, defensives and energy lag; bonds firmer, metals retreat

01/07/2026 04:09 PM • Market did the splits. QQQ eked a win while SPY, DIA, and IWM drifted lower—classic rotation, not a rug pull. Health care put the team on its back, financials and utilities took the L, and tech was flat on the surface but buzzing under the hood with AI and semis. Duration grabbed the spotlight: TLT and IEF bid as the 10-year chilled near 4.17%, curve less kinked, and that kneecapped gold and silver as hedge demand cooled. Commodities mostly meh—oil eased, broad raws soft, nat gas the lone overachiever. Chip hype stayed loud: Intel led S&P winners as the AI trade broadened; Nvidia platform updates and AMD positioning kept compute demand front and center, with memory pricing momentum and networking/infrastructure called underappreciated. Cybersecurity caught a bounce, hinting the bottom might be in for select names. Defense primes sagged on chatter of a dividends/buybacks prohibition—capital return math just got murky. Staples got dunked on by dietary guidance aimed at ultraprocessed foods and sugary drinks. Airlines/industrial tape had green shoots: Alaska Airlines dropped a record order, American Airlines held frequent-flyer criteria steady, and an e-air taxi player expanded its U.S. footprint toward FAA cert. Crypto sagged into the close, EURUSD steady-ish. Playbook: duration as ballast while equities chop. Next up—Friday jobs (watch wages/participation) and a potential Supreme Court tariff ruling. Venezuela heavy crude headlines are noisy; execution timelines matter. AI capex remains the main character.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 7, 2026 4:06pm (New York)

Stocks mixed into the close as investors eye Friday’s jobs data; duration firms, energy and precious metals ease

01/07/2026 04:06 PM • Mixed close with a side of nerves: QQQ squeaked green while SPY, DIA, and IWM sagged. Playbook was tech resilience vs. cyclicals and financials taking a timeout as everyone gears up for Friday’s jobs report. Duration caught a bid—TLT and IEF up—with the 10-year hanging near 4.17% and the curve modestly sloped. Translation: policy still restrictive, but no fresh tightening vibes. Commodities cooled—oil and broad baskets faded, gold and silver gave back Monday’s safety sprint—while nat gas decided to be the contrarian winner. Crypto chilled into data-watch mode and the euro stayed rangey. Sector tape: XLV led on the classic “defense wins championships” angle even with MRK/LLY crosscurrents; XLF eased after a heater; XLK was basically flat while the real action churned underneath in semis, networking, and AI software. Staples caught a headline body-check as anti-ultraprocessed rhetoric dinged KHC/MDLZ and put PEP in the splash zone. Energy stayed messy: CVX has Venezuela headlines but the market wants timelines and capex receipts; refiners seen as the sneaky relative winners. Industrials lagged, though ALK’s monster order gives BA multi-year backlog juice. AI/semis narrative still the main character: NVDA platform cadence, AMD cost/memory gains, MU riding firmer memory pricing, INTC gets a foundry value nod, and CSCO/ANET flagged as under-owned AI infra plays. PLTR’s valuation cage match continues. Autonomy drama: MBLY wins bolster sensor fusion vs. TSLA’s camera-only purism. Mega-cap scorecard: GOOGL leapfrogged AAPL for the No. 2 market-cap slot—AI optionality for the win. Media merger roulette (WBD/NFLX/PARA) spins on. COST gets constructive takes; UAA snags a value-chad. AAL keeps status thresholds steady. Setup: A classic breadth signal flashed green this week, but the only thing that matters now is Friday—wages, hours, participation. Until then: bonds bid, selective risk in tech/healthcare, patience everywhere else.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Jan 7, 2026 1:34pm (New York)

Midday market check: Tech steadies the tape as energy and cyclicals ease; bonds bid ahead of jobs data

01/07/2026 01:34 PM • Midday tape check: growth bros got the wheel. SPY is a hair green, QQQ is jogging ahead, while DIA and IWM are dragging their feet. Under the hood, tech and health care are carrying the backpack, financials and energy are taking a water break. Bonds are getting a strong bid into Friday’s jobs print, metals are giving back shine, oil is softer, and crypto slipped on a banana peel. Rates backdrop stays spicy-but-contained: the curve’s still funky with an inverted front and higher term premium out the curve (2Y ~3.46%, 10Y ~4.17%, 30Y ~4.85 as of 1/5). Inflation expectations are chill—breakevens ~2.2s and a model 1Y near 3.20 drifting toward 2.3–2.4—keeping the growth complex comfy. Macro mix: ADP +41k says “soft but stable,” services turned up with employment expanding for the first time in seven months, while manufacturing stays in the penalty box. Translation: Friday’s jobs report is the real referee for the next rate-path move. Tech leads on AI and semi buzz: Nvidia platform chatter and AMD’s CES playbook (cost/memory wins) keep the compute drum beating, with analogs and networkers hinted as catch-up lanes. Health care’s green despite GLP‑1 pill headlines pressuring select names and vaccine noise around HPV guidance. Financials cool off after a big 2025, waiting for earnings and payrolls. Energy fades with crude softer and Venezuela timelines getting a reality check—patience required. TLT/IEF bid says duration tourists back on the bus; GLD/SLV ease; USO down, UNG up. Corporate spice: Alaska Airlines orders a fleet from Boeing, WBD rebuffs a hostile suitor in favor of Netflix’s offer, and Manchester United pops on a managerial shuffle. Stay nimble—jobs data is the next catalyst.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Jan 7, 2026 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open mixed as Treasuries bid and gold backs off; energy and policy headlines remain in focus

01/07/2026 09:33 AM • Tape opens balanced like a yoga pose. SPY sneaks higher, DIA carries the boomer baton, and QQQ takes a breather as megacap/semis cool off after the AI sprint. Under the hood, Health Care grabs the early W, Tech eases, and Financials sag as duration catches a bid. TLT/IEF up, yields down-ish: 10Y hovering near 4.17% with the curve less angry than last cycle—classic pre-payrolls posture. ADP’s +41k says “slow but not broken,” which keeps Friday’s jobs print as the main event for rate vibes and sector leadership. Inflation expectations are chill in the 2.2s while a 1-year read near 3.2% says near-term sticky, not spiraling. Translation: disinflation glide path intact, but no victory parade. That’s why growthy XLK is on pause while defensives like XLV firm and cyclicals in the Dow still look comfy. Commodities unwind the geopolitical knee-jerk: GLD and SLV give back some of Monday’s Venezuela panic bid, oil (USO) is a touch soft, and nat gas (UNG) catches a gust. Markets basically said, “Cool story, but barrels don’t appear overnight,” and moved on. Crypto cools too—BTC and ETH slip as attention rotates toward old‑economy value plays. Chip chatter stays hot even as prices cool: continued momentum themes for AI, memory, and equipment, with analog underdogs surprising. Airlines/aero get a shot of jet fuel with Alaska’s record order boosting the Boeing demand story, while Joby keeps building toward eVTOL liftoff. What to watch: Friday’s payrolls to set the rate anchor; if 10Y sticks near 4.17% you get balanced risk-on. Also watch gold stabilizing after the pullback, oil headline risk from Venezuela implementation, and whether breadth keeps improving while megacaps catch their breath.

Read State of Market Report

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Jan 6, 2026 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks Advance into the Close as Defensive Metals Surge; Yields Steady Ahead of Jobs Report

01/06/2026 04:04 PM • Green day with extra sauce. The tape broadened and the bears took a timeout: SPY +0.6%, QQQ +0.9%, DIA +1.0%, and small caps IWM went full send at +1.3%. Leadership was a growth/defense mashup—XLK +1.4% on AI-capex hype while healthcare XLV ripped +1.9% despite obesity-drug drama. Financials XLF drifted +0.5% as the street quietly preps for bank earnings. Energy headlines were loud, but the actual barrels said “nah.” Gold and silver stole the show (GLD +1.1%, SLV +6.7%) on safe-haven bids tied to Venezuela noise, while oil/gas eased (USO -2.4%, UNG -3.1%) and broad commodities (DBC) were basically flat. Rates stayed in their lane: 10Y pinned around 4.19%, long duration off a touch (TLT -0.2%, IEF -0.1%, SHY flat) as everyone waits for Friday’s jobs print to actually move the curve. Chips kept the AI party going. CES chatter had Nvidia’s platform in production, AMD chasing, semicap crew (Lam/AMAT/KLA) riding the data center build-out, and ASML notched another record off an upgrade. Memory tailwinds had Micron in the spotlight, and even analog talk (Microchip) teased a comeback. In health, Novo’s weight-loss pill pressured peers intra-day but didn’t stop the sector from flexing. Banks got a steady bid after a monster 2025, with JPM value takes floating around. Outside the core, Ford rebalanced toward hybrids (profit math matters), software picks for 2026 bubbled up, and Palantir bulls talked margins. Dollar firmed vs. euro; crypto was split (BTC softer, ETH up). Bottom line: breadth improved, metals bid, energy softer, and rates chill—next move belongs to payrolls.

Read State of Market Report