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State of Maket Reports Page 2 of 3 • 56 articles
TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday •
Tech-led rebound lifts U.S. equities midday; 10-year holds near 4.10% as gold and oil firm, crypto stabilizes

11/24/2025 01:33 PM • Holiday-mode rally unlocked. Tech is carrying the squad into a shortened week: SPY +1.5%, QQQ +2.5% with AI/growth in full send, and IWM +1.7% says breadth isn’t just a rumor. DIA trails but green. The macro juice? Yields are behaving—10Y parked near 4.10%, curve less upside-down, and duration catching a bid (TLT up). That steadier rate backdrop plus anchored long-run inflation expectations is putting a tailwind under multiples. Tech is the tip of the spear: XLK +2.6% as hyperscalers keep writing giant AI checks. Amazon dropped a whopper—up to $50B for U.S. government AI infra, 1.3GW of data centers breaking ground in 2026. Meta gets a fresh defense for leaning into AI spend, and Google’s custom silicon progress keeps the competitive heat on merchant GPU land. Not just a megacap party either—defensives participate (XLV, XLF, XLU all up), signaling broader risk appetite, not a narrow squeeze. Commodities are vibing with a soft-landing script: gold and silver firmer, crude rising, nat gas the odd one out. Crypto stopped wobbling—BTC bounces ~2%, ETH ~4%—but the recent “belief-driven” chop says don’t put away the seatbelt. Single-name spice: Tesla’s China sales hit a three-year low even as its in-house AI chips advance; Kohl’s gets a new CEO into the holiday gauntlet; Novo Nordisk stumbles on an oral GLP-1 Alzheimer’s readout. Big watch-items into the close: can small caps and financials keep pace, do yields stay anchored around 4.10%, and what do retail earnings/Black Friday traffic say about the consumer. With CPI timing scrambled before the December Fed meeting, the market will chase any hint of growth or policy tilt—vol gets spicy fast in a short week.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Stocks open firmer to start Thanksgiving week as tech leads and long-end Treasurys bid

11/24/2025 09:33 AM • Thanksgiving week kicks off with a gravy boat of green. Mega-cap tech sprints out front: QQQ up close to 1% while SPY cruises higher and small caps keep missing leg day. XLK is pacing the tape as the market re-locks on AI/cloud platforms; the “Mag7” saga is getting more selective with Nvidia/Microsoft/Apple in the spotlight and Google chatter heating up on AI tools. Defensives nibble (XLV, XLF modestly green) while Energy’s ETF is a hair up even as oil itself drifts—policy headlines on offshore leasing and Russian flows could spice volatility later. Bonds doing the heavy lifting: TLT bid, IEF firm, SHY flat. The 10Y hanging near 4.10% keeps duration-friendly wind at tech’s back. Street talk leans toward another cut into year-end, but here’s the plot twist: key CPI and jobs prints are delayed, so the Fed’s heading into December with fewer instruments on the dashboard. Inflation expectations are steady, gold’s calm—risk can run as long as growth doesn’t trip. Commodities are split: GLD/SLV steady, USO softer, and UNG gets stuffed. Crypto still shaky—BTC and ETH leaking as November’s slide keeps sentiment fragile. Catalysts: Retail is center stage (Burlington, Kohl’s, Best Buy, Dell) with the whole holiday promo gauntlet ready to decide who gets tendies and who gets leftovers. Also watch Treasury auctions and term premium, plus any oil-flow fireworks. Bottom line: constructive, narrow, and very AI-flavored. If yields keep easing, breadth can finally join the party; until then, quality growth is steering the sleigh.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close •
Risk appetite returns into the close as small caps lead, yields ease, and crypto stays volatile

11/21/2025 04:03 PM • Risk appetite slammed back into the close. Small caps went full send with IWM +2.85% while the big kids jogged higher: SPY +1.00%, DIA +0.99%, QQQ +0.77%. Sector vibe check: healthcare carried the torch (XLV +2.15%), financials joined the conga line, and tech stayed green but chill. Why the pump? Yields eased after NY Fed’s Williams kept a December cut on the table, and the CPI data desert until after the meeting has everyone staring at market breakevens—which are anchored around 2.3%. Curve check (11/19): 2y 3.58%, 5y 3.71%, 10y 4.13%, 30y 4.75%. Easier rates + S&P surveys showing the fastest growth in four months post‑shutdown = looser financial conditions, perfect rocket fuel for domestically sensitive small caps and cyclicals. Bonds confirmed the vibe: duration bid with TLT and IEF up, SHY inching higher. Commodities mixed: oil faded (USO red), nat gas popped (UNG green), and shiny rocks took a breather (GLD, SLV down). DBC closed softer overall. FX/crypto: euro firmer, crypto stayed wobbly. Bitcoin sliced below 82k intraday before bouncing around, Ether drifted lower—equities shrugged it off as the rates impulse ruled the day. Watch into December: more Fed chatter in a data vacuum, crypto tremors that could spill if liquidity thins, and whether oil’s cooldown keeps the inflation math friendly. For now, breadth plus small‑cap leadership and healthcare strength = tendie train still rolling.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday •
Midday Market: Stocks Rebound as Yields Ease, Small Caps Lead; Crypto Stays Under Pressure While Data Delays Cloud the Fed’s Path

11/21/2025 01:33 PM • Midday tape got its second wind: stocks grinding higher as yields back off and the small-cap crowd steals the spotlight. NY Fed’s Williams dangled the “December cut” carrot, and with key CPI and jobs prints delayed or canceled, the market’s betting the Fed will lean on vibes, surveys, and financial conditions. Translation: lower yields = oxygen for anything rate-sensitive. SPY, QQQ, DIA are green, but IWM is doing the heavy lifting as breadth actually shows up. Health care is the gym bro today—XLV outperforms on a trillion-cap drugmaker milestone and defensive juice. Financials firm with a gentle bull-flattening helping sentiment, while tech’s taking a breather—XLK flat-ish as AI hype digests recent whiplash instead of mooning or imploding. Bonds bid across the curve (TLT/IEF/SHY up), backing the easing narrative and sprinkling a little multiple magic on equities. Commodities are split: oil soft (USO red), broad basket off (DBC), gold steady to slightly higher (GLD), silver giving back a bit (SLV), and nat gas popping (UNG) on its own quirky fundamentals. FX barely blinks with EURUSD steady in the mid-1.15s. Crypto’s the weak link—Bitcoin and Ether slid, with BTC tagging fresh April lows earlier—reminding everyone that liquidity tantrums still exist. Big picture: cautious risk-on with rotation vibes—smalls leading, defensives strong, tech consolidating. Into December, expect Fed jawboning to carry oversized weight. Watch 2s/10s and TLT for confirmation, IWM for breadth, and crypto for any risk-spill. Event risk remains elevated with the Fed flying half-blind.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Stocks firm at the open as Treasury yields ease; tech steadies on AI headlines while crypto slides

11/21/2025 09:32 AM • Green candles at the bell as bonds catch a bid and yields cool. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all edge higher with a quality tilt into tech and financials. The rate vibes come from NY Fed’s Williams hinting a possible December cut while the October jobs report is canceled and the latest minutes show split views — translation: event-risk roulette until the FOMC. Curve levels remain below midyear peaks, and inflation expectations (1y ~2.74%, 5y ~2.32%, 10y ~2.29%) keep the soft-landing narrative alive. Tech stabilizes after Nvidia’s results soothed the AI-bubble jitters, but it’s still a two-way tape: DOJ chatter on restricted chip exports keeps regulatory heat on, AMD is getting side-eye as a relative winner, Alphabet’s AI momentum is drawing focus, and longer-horizon bets like IBM/Cisco quantum remind everyone the next compute wave is a marathon. Health Care has M&A juice as Abbott moves to buy Exact Sciences and its Cologuard franchise for $21B. Retail is mixed: Walmart dinged on Sam’s comps, BJ’s beats and hikes, Gap more upbeat, while Bath & Body Works got hammered post-earnings. Verizon trims 13k heads; Starbucks strike noise lingers. Commodities: gold and silver slip even with softer yields; crude is red, nat gas firmer. Dollar a touch stronger vs euro near 1.1505. Crypto is the messy side quest — Bitcoin near 83.8k (-2.6%) after a sub-81k swipe, Ether -3%, and a $1.2T sector drawdown since October keeping vol elevated. Watch yields vs tech leadership and AI headlines for the next pivot.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close •
Stocks give back early gains as tech leads broad selloff; long-end yields ease, crypto slumps

11/20/2025 04:11 PM • The AI relief rally showed up for the open and ghosted by the close. QQQ got rug-pulled (-2.4%), SPY slipped (-1.5%), DIA held up better (-0.8%), and small caps (IWM) ate the toughest loss (-1.8%). Sector board screamed risk-off: tech (XLK) led the slide (-3.1%) with megacap/AI hype fading, financials and health care sagged, and energy leaked as crude eased. Rates played hero mode: 10Y near 4.12% and 30Y ~4.74% with a parallel drift lower; TLT/IEF green as duration finally did its job. Commodities were meh-to-red—oil and silver down, gold flat like it already priced the drama. Crypto took the express down: BTC -6.8% and ETH -6.7% with big intraday ranges and ETF-outflow chatter souring vibes. The macro tape is throwing curveballs: Fed minutes showed a split on a December cut and the BLS torpedoed visibility by scrapping October jobs and delaying November, so every AI headline hits like a macro print. Nvidia glow didn’t hold; AMD got named as a relative winner but buyers lost steam; chatter about 2026 buybacks slowing as AI capex stacks leverage added another headwind. Retail was a tale of two wallets: WMT dinged by Sam’s Club comps, TGT traffic soft, BBWI cratered, while TJX flexed record results. Elsewhere: ABT buying EXAS for $21B (cancer screening land grab), aerospace caught a headline risk rebuke, VZ cut 13k, and IBM/CSCO teased long-dated quantum dreams. Bottom line: defensives won the day, bonds cushioned, crypto cracked. Eyes on AI capex cadence, holiday retail, and whether yields break lower on cleaner disinflation signals.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close •
Tech-led selloff drags stocks into the close; Treasuries firm, commodities and crypto retreat

11/20/2025 04:06 PM • Tech tried a morning comeback, then faceplanted into the close. SPY -1.5%, QQQ -2.4%, DIA -0.8%, IWM -1.8% — classic de-risking with growth taking the heat. The “Nvidia-inspired rebound” couldn’t stick; AI leaders wobbled and XLK led losers, down ~3.1%, as traders questioned how durable the AI earnings engine really is. Talk of 2026 AI capex crimping buybacks didn’t help the vibes. Bonds caught a modest safety bid (TLT/IEF/SHY green), signaling a drift lower in yields from the recent 10Y ~4.12%/30Y ~4.74% prints. With the Fed split on December and the BLS scrubbing October jobs plus delaying November, the tape is reading tea leaves from curves and guidance instead of clean data. Commodities were soft across the board: oil and gas red, silver slipped, gold basically flat. Crypto got body-slammed — Bitcoin broke below 90k with ETF outflow headlines, Ether matched the slide. Retail was a mixed bag: Walmart and Target sagged on comps and cautious outlooks, but TJX ripped to records and Lowe’s bounced despite trimming the year. Healthcare threw elbows: Abbott dropping $21B on Exact Sciences, while UNH trims a million MA members to reset margins. Industrials/aero stayed nervous after a UPS cargo jet crash update hit sentiment, dinging Boeing and GE Aerospace. Financials bled with the risk-off and curve tone, Verizon’s new boss sharpening the axe with 13k cuts, and PANW prints that didn’t wow in a picky market. Big picture: yields, AI leadership durability, and holiday sales reads are the next bosses. Until then, expect choppy rotations and a premium on cash flow and balance sheets.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Stocks open higher as AI tailwinds steady sentiment; yields anchored, retail mixed

11/20/2025 09:35 AM • AI jets refueled, runway cleared. After a choppy stretch, bulls charged the open with tech doing the heavy lifting thanks to Nvidia’s beat, robust networking growth, and clearer demand visibility. SPY +~1.6%, QQQ +~2.0%, DIA +~1.0%, IWM +~1.5%—classic relief rally setup with XLK leading. Semis, accelerators, networking, and software all catch the “AI is structural” bid, even as some pundits warn 2026 capex could pinch buybacks. Macro isn’t fighting: 2Y ~3.58%, 10Y ~4.12%, 30Y ~4.74%—a gentle upward slope that props financials and takes heat off multiples. Inflation expectations hanging in the low-to-mid 2s keeps the rate dragon leashed. Fed’s got an info gap (no October jobs, November late), so expect more vibes from microphones than spreadsheets near-term. Sector tape screams pro-cyclical: XLF firm on the curve, XLE tracks firmer crude, defensives muted with XLV flat amid a busy M&A/insurer headline mix. Healthcare buzz: Abbott drops $21B on Exact Sciences’ Cologuard. Verizon’s new boss swings the cost axe with 13k cuts. Retail remains two-speed: Walmart wobbles on Sam’s comps, Target still traffic-challenged, Lowe’s beats but stays cautious, while TJX flexes off-price momentum. Bonds nod along (TLT/IEF/SHY +~0.1%), a green light for risk without a bear steepener. Commodities mixed: gold flat, silver easing, oil firmer, nat gas softer. Crypto’s the odd one out—BTC around 91K and ETH near 3K trade heavy on ETF outflow chatter. Big theme check: Microsoft–Nvidia–Anthropic tie-up, IBM–Cisco quantum (long runway). Watch if today’s tech pop broadens to cyclicals and smalls; with the 10Y parked near 4.12%, the lane’s open—now it’s all about breadth and earnings follow-through.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close •
Stocks edge higher into the close as yields steady; tech firms regain footing while oil slides and crypto remains under pressure

11/19/2025 04:10 PM • Market tiptoed green into the bell: SPY +0.39%, QQQ +0.58% showing a little mega-cap courage, DIA barely awake, and IWM flat like a pancake. Tech regained its footing (XLK +0.70%) while Energy ate pavement (XLE -0.84%) as crude slid. Financials held a modest bid and Health Care leaked. Under the hood, rates behaved: 10-year hovering near 4.13% with the long bond around 4.73%, keeping term premium chatter alive but not scary. The macro soap opera is the real volatility engine: Fed minutes flagged split views on a December cut, Governor Waller openly cheering for one, and the BLS canceling October payrolls means we’re trading vibes, not data, into the next meeting. Leadership is fragile—MarketWatch says Amazon and Nvidia slipped into correction territory with Meta already in a bear—but dip nibblers still re-engaged with quality tech ahead of Nvidia’s print, the AI referendum everyone’s queued for. Credit desks are eyeing heavy AI capex and tech spreads, so tone from semis matters. Commodities ran a split-screen: precious metals firmed (silver outpacing gold), nat gas ripped, but oil got clipped and dragged XLE. Bonds inched lower (TLT, IEF soft) consistent with steady yields. Crypto stayed heavy—BTC and ETH bled with ETF outflows and nerves, which helped cap the equity bounce. Bottom line: Slow-clap green. Tech cautiously re-risked, oil said “nah,” and yields stayed chill. Next up: Nvidia guidance, timing on delayed labor data, PCE tea leaves, and whether tech credit and crypto flows stop tugging on risk.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday •
Midday markets tread water: mega-cap tech steadies, energy slips, bonds and gold firm as traders eye Nvidia and patchy data flow

11/19/2025 01:36 PM • Halftime vibes: market holding a plank. SPY +0.12%, QQQ +0.04%, DIA -0.08%, IWM flat. Tech and financials quietly green; energy and health care wear the dunce cap. Everyone’s staring at Nvidia after the bell—the AI thermostat for the whole casino. Rates backdrop stays chill. Curve’s gently steep from 2Y 3.60% to 10Y ~4.13% to 30Y 4.73%, decent for bank margins but still a headwind for long-duration dreamers. Fed Gov Waller floated a December quarter-point cut to help a softening labor market, giving Treasurys a tiny bid, while BLS punting the full October jobs report keeps the data void spooky. Cross-asset tells: bonds and shinies firm, commodities mixed, dollar flexing, crypto faceplanting. TLT +0.14%, IEF +0.06%, SHY +0.02%. Gold and silver catch a lift (GLD +0.27%, SLV +0.48%) as oil eats a 2.5% loss (USO), nat gas pops ~3% (UNG), and the broad commodity basket (DBC) sags. EURUSD -0.4% = stronger greenback. Crypto gets buckled: BTC -2.4%, ETH -5.3% amid ETF outflows and risk-off whispers—but equities aren’t panicking, just narrowing. Inside tech, the AI trade is reshuffling seats: NVDA’s print is crucial; Alphabet rides Gemini 3 momentum; Apple’s low AI bar acts like armor; Amazon and Microsoft wrestle capex and credit spread gravity. Retail is the two-consumer tale: Target soft on traffic, TJX to records, Lowe’s beats but trims FY, Home Depot droops with housing. JetBlue adds Boston-Europe routes, Boeing lands more 777X orders, and a Cloudflare hiccup reminds everyone the internet has single points of failure. Playbook: NVDA guidance on demand cadence, supply balance, and 2027 roadmap decides the next tendies. Watch weekly claims and cut chatter in the meantime.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Stocks open mixed as bond bid steadies, commodities diverge, and crypto volatility lingers ahead of key AI earnings

11/19/2025 09:34 AM • Tape opens like it’s walking on marbles: SPY and QQQ a hair green, DIA sagging, IWM barely awake. Under the hood, tech gets a tiny lift while financials and healthcare wobble. The real juice is in bonds — TLT/IEF/SHY bid as yields ease, taking some heat off multiples. That pairs with firm gold and silver while crude gets sent to the corner and the broad commodity basket fades; nat gas does its own thing and firms. Crypto’s still the jump-scare: record ETF outflows and a sub-90k scare earlier this week, but BTC is stabilizing into the open. Macro backdrop stays market-friendly-ish: inflation expectations anchored near the low-2s and Fed Governor Waller still talking up a December quarter-point cut. But positioning is loud — managers heavy equities, cash skinny — so any miss can hit like a sledgehammer. Technically, the S&P cracking below its 50-day after 139 straight sessions has everyone side-eyeing the 10% correction question. Today’s vibe is “stabilize before the boss fight.” That boss fight is Nvidia after the bell: investors want proof the AI cycle still pays, not just burns capex, while tech credit spreads and AI debt chatter simmer. Meanwhile, retail splits: off-price hitting records, big-box feeling cautious, home improvement mixed with beats but trimmed guides. What to watch: whether the bond bid holds, if tech leadership broadens beyond a few mega names, oil’s supply headlines, and crypto flows. The close likely hinges on how AI guidance frames multi-year demand versus spend — and whether the market’s crowded longs can handle the truth.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close •
Tech-led selloff extends into the close as investors await Nvidia; small caps and defensives show relative strength

11/18/2025 04:04 PM • Tech goliaths took a lap in the red while the scrappy smalls did pushups into the close. SPY -0.8%, QQQ -1.2%, DIA -1.1% — but IWM sneaked green +0.3%. Classic rotation energy: healthcare caught a bid, tech got de-rated, and everyone’s pacing for Nvidia’s earnings boss fight mid-week. XLK lagged hard (AI capex hangover + debt-spread chatter), XLV led defensively, XLE dipped even as crude popped. Under the hood, the macro mix screamed “cautious, not broken.” Belly of the curve got a hug on Waller’s December-cut drumbeat (IEF up, SHY up), while the long end shrugged (TLT flat). Curve stays positively sloped (2Y ~3.62%, 10Y ~4.14%, 30Y ~4.74%), keeping term premium spicy but recession sirens muted. Commodities flexed: gold and silver shined, oil and nat gas climbed, broad basket green — a tidy hedge into headline risk. AI narratives drove the tape: GOOGL buzzed on Gemini 3 and a “Buffett bump,” but hyperscaler math got side-eyed (rising capex and AI-linked debt issuance pinching spreads). Cloudflare’s outage reminded the street that internet plumbing breaks at the worst time. Retail’s up next: HD slumped on soft housing while the Target/Walmart double-header will test the “tale of two consumers” thesis; WMT leadership shifts added extra tea leaves. Elsewhere, ENR got zapped on a rare miss, BA’s 777X orders kept aero cycle alive, DIS reconciled with YouTube TV, and NVO adjusted GLP‑1 pricing. Crypto did its circus act: BTC knifed below 90k then ripped back above 92k; ETH echoed. Net: rotation mode on, risk tight, and all eyes glued to NVDA guidance to decide if AI still carries the market or needs a cooldown.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday •
Midday market check: Small caps advance while mega-cap tech lags; yields steady, commodities firmer

11/18/2025 01:35 PM • Rotation alert: the crowded megatech caravan is spilling bags while the small-cap goblins run the table. Midday scorecard: SPY dipping, QQQ lagging harder, DIA dragging, and IWM popping as money hides from AI euphoria into real-economy grinders. Sector remix is loud: XLK red as AI capex math gets questioned and cloud infra hiccups remind everyone about concentration risk; meanwhile banks, health care, and energy are carrying the bench. Rates backdrop = stable vibes: 10Y parked near 4.14%, 30Y around 4.74%, curve less cursed with 2s-10s positive. Inflation expectations hovering ~2.3% across the curve keeps the soft-landing dream intact, and Waller is still teeing up a December 25 bps cut unless the data dropkicks him. Tech narrative is tense: chatter that generative AI returns could compress for the mega twins while a fresh MSFT–NVDA–Anthropic tie-up stokes the arms race. All eyes on Nvidia earnings tonight for clarity into 2026–27—this is the boss fight for the multiple. Tape under the hood: Home Depot whiffed on housing softness, Energizer misfired on tariffs, but Alphabet got a Berkshire bump with AI roadmap chatter in tow. Bonds show a mild bear steepener (long end soggy), while commodities flex—gold, silver, oil, and the broad basket all green. Crypto pulled a classic V: BTC ripped off sub-90k lows back near 93k; ETH firm. Big picture: crowded growth is getting trimmed, small caps and defensives getting love, and the close likely depends on how much pre-NVDA de-risking is left in the tank.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Stocks open lower as tech leads declines; bonds bid, gold steadies; crypto volatility lingers

11/18/2025 10:03 AM • Risk-off sequel at the open. SPY down roughly 1%, QQQ off about 1.4%, DIA -1.1%, while IWM is the scrappy one at just -0.5%. The pain is concentrated where it hurts: XLK leading declines (~-1.9%) as mega-cap growth gets de-risked. Defensives get a tiny shield—XLV ekes green—and energy sits flat. Monday’s S&P break below the 50-day is still in traders’ heads; if bounces get sold, momentum chasers keep the pressure on. Bonds are the winners’ circle: TLT and IEF catching a bid as duration gets love, even with the long end still elevated (10Y ~4.14%, 30Y ~4.74%). Inflation expectations are anchored near 2.3%–2.4%, and Fed’s Waller floated another quarter-point cut in December—bullish for duration, not a free pass for long-duration tech multiples just yet. Gold and silver shine (GLD, SLV firmer) while oil (USO) drifts and nat gas (UNG) gets dunked ~2%. Crypto remains the chaos meter: BTC bounced around ~91k after a brief dip under 90k (lowest since April), ETH near 3,058—great for heart-rate training, lousy for high-beta equities’ nerves. Single-name vibes are steering the narrative even without quotes: Alphabet sentiment lifted by bullish calls and Berkshire’s disclosed stake; Nvidia is the week’s boss fight on Wednesday amid chatter of trimmed stakes and AI bubble debates. Home Depot’s miss flags housing softness. A Cloudflare-linked outage reminded everyone the internet’s plumbing can leak—another dent to tech sentiment. Positioning is the accelerant: surveys show low cash and heavy equity overweights. Translation: crowded longs + wobbly leadership = fast tape. Watch NVDA, yields, and crypto stabilization for the next turn.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close •
Stocks fade into the close as tech lags, energy steadies; bonds firm on dovish Fed chatter

11/17/2025 04:04 PM • Risk-off Mondays hit different: indexes bled into the bell while bonds got a soft-landing lullaby. SPY -0.9%, QQQ -0.9%, DIA -1.2% — and small caps face-planted with IWM -2.0%. Rotation screamed defensive: XLK -1.6% and XLF -1.9% ate it, XLV flat, XLE +0.9% doing laps even with crude basically unchanged. Macro was the driver. Fed’s Waller floated another 25bp cut for December, and yields nodded: 10Y parked near 4.11% with a positively sloped 2s/10s, a vibe that says “gradual cuts, not panic.” Duration caught a bid (TLT +0.3%, IEF +0.1%, SHY flat) as risk assets de-risked. AI fever cooled ahead of Nvidia’s print; chatter of big players taking profits fed the jitters, even as Berkshire’s Alphabet buy reminded everyone the long game still lives. Energy stonked despite USO -0.1% — production discipline plus geopolitics kept XLE green. Metals couldn’t hide: GLD -1.2%, SLV -1.0%, with recent gold–equity lockstep flashing a liquidity tell more than an inflation story. Crypto caught the rug: BTC -3.4% toward 91.8k, ETH -5.7% near 3k, with whales distributing into the dip. Headlines mixed the sauce: Boeing stacked a jumbo 777X order (GE engines in tow), Novo Nordisk slashed GLP-1 DTC pricing, Merck chasing pipeline via M&A. Banks lagged on NIM and consumer strain worries, while the NY Fed’s repo check-ins kept plumbing on the radar. Playbook: NVDA guidance and Fed cut odds will decide if this is a tidy rotation or a broader de-risking. Until then, bonds comfy, energy sturdy, growth kids in timeout.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday •
Midday markets lean lower as tech lags; defensive pockets firm while crypto extends its slide

11/17/2025 01:38 PM • Calm bleed vibes at midday after last week’s chaos. SPY and QQQ are off about 0.5% while small caps wear the dunce cap with IWM down ~0.8%. Rotation is textbook: tech and financials take the heat (XLK -1.2%, XLF -1.0%) while healthcare and utilities soak up bids. Bonds get a gentle hug—TLT and IEF inch higher—as the curve sits positively sloped and the 10Y/30Y hold near 4.11%/4.70%. Dollar firmer vs euro, gold a touch red, but silver and crude sneak higher; nat gas sags. Crypto takes the slippery stairs: BTCUSD -~2.8%, ETHUSD -~4.9%, hovering at session lows as whales lighten up—more profit-taking than panic, but liquidity feels thin. The boss fight is Nvidia’s print midweek. De-risking into the event is the whole plot, with chatter about trimming AI exposure bumping duration names while the secular-bulls still preach runway into 2027. Alphabet gets a narrative boost from Berkshire’s stake chatter, Boeing lands fresh 777X orders (GE Aerospace engines along for the ride), Tesla’s robotaxi talk keeps optionality dreams alive, and Novo’s $349/month GLP-1 DTC push props the healthcare bid. Energy watches Venezuela headlines as USO edges up and that XLE/XLU label mix-up still flashes a defensive tilt. Market plumbing stays in focus with NY Fed SRF chatter; breadth is meh, and the “Santa Flaws” rally debate won’t die. Mark your calendars: options folks have Dec 10 circled. Playbook: respect the chop, hide in quality, and let NVDA guidance, backlogged data, and yields decide whether tendies get served or seized.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Stocks open softer as tech lags; long bonds and oil edge higher while gold eases

11/17/2025 09:35 AM • Risk switch flipped to cautious at the open: SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM all in the red, with the tech crowd eating the first dip of the week. QQQ lags as XLK sags about 1% — classic “hide the megacaps” rotation — while energy sneaks a green candle with XLE up as crude (USO) ticks higher. This isn’t panic; it’s event‑risk yoga. Long bonds getting a light hug (TLT +0.25%, IEF +0.11%, SHY flat) as the curve sits 2y 3.58%, 10y 4.11%, 30y 4.70%. Inflation expectations are chill in the low‑2s, keeping the multiple dream alive so long as the data behaves. The boss fight is later this week: investors are laser‑focused on Nvidia’s earnings after a choppy AI tape. Options folks also circled Dec 10 for a “double helping” of volatility, so expect gamma gremlins to mess with intraday moves into that window. Headlines add spice: Alphabet buzz off a Berkshire stake and Gemini 3.0 chatter can’t lift tech this morning; Boeing/GE Aerospace ride long‑cycle demand vibes; Chevron/Exxon staying in production‑boost mode, giving energy a tailwind; Novo Nordisk cutting GLP‑1 DTC pricing pressures parts of healthcare. Gold loses a little shine (GLD down), silver too, while crypto is still on the back foot with whales distributing and liquidity thin. Dollar a touch firmer (EURUSD softer) — fits the cautious posture. Net: this is digestion, not doom. Watch breadth on bounces, XLE vs. XLK tug‑of‑war, and whether TLT can keep a bid with the 10‑year around 4.11%. The tape wants to consolidate into the catalyst cluster — then we find out who gets tendies.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close •
Stocks finish mixed as oil rallies, gold retreats, and long bonds slide; Dow lags while tech steadies

11/14/2025 04:04 PM • Friday closed like a tug-of-war: SPY stood still (-0.01%), QQQ squeaked green (+0.07%), DIA face-planted (-0.61%), and small-cap IWM remembered leg day (+0.30%). Sector rotation stayed the meta. Tech steadied (XLK +0.56) on the relentless AI capex drumbeat, energy rode firmer crude, while financials (XLF -0.98) and health care (XLV -0.57) ate rate smoke. The macro boss remains yields: an upward-sloping curve from 2Y ~3.56% to 30Y ~4.67% clubbed duration (TLT -0.57%, IEF -0.15%) while the front end chilled (SHY +0.02%). Inflation expectations are anchored (5y ~2.36%, 10y ~2.31%) but the shutdown scrambled October data, so vibes > evidence. Year-end funding gremlins lurk; some chatter the Fed may need to sprinkle liquidity into December. Commodities went pro-cyc: oil pumped on geopolitics (USO +2.19%), broad basket firmer (DBC +0.20%). Precious metals got bonked by higher nominals (GLD -1.80%, SLV -3.08%). Nat gas slipped (UNG -1.76%). FX stayed sleepy with EURUSD near 1.162. Crypto bled as bitcoin lost $95K and ether followed. Narrative heat map: semis/AI saw meh near-term talk (Applied Materials) but better H2 hopes; Nvidia’s print next week is the boss fight; Cisco’s AI networking beat kept the data-center capex arc intact. Consumer lane got Starbucks strike headlines and Walmart leadership shuffle. Pharma M&A pinged with Merck buying Cidara. Tesla still in the penalty box; Waymo edging toward driverless freeways. Watchlist: 10Y ~4.08% and 30Y ~4.67% for duration pressure, oil headline risk, Dec 10 options window for vol fireworks, and next week’s AI earnings gauntlet.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday •
Midday market steadies as tech outperforms; oil climbs, long bonds lag

11/14/2025 01:38 PM • Market put the floaties back on after Thursday’s belly flop. SPY is a cautious green (+0.14%) and QQQ leads (+0.27%) while the boomer brigade DIA sulks (−0.44%). Small caps (IWM +0.45%) say breadth isn’t dead yet. Long end yields stay spicy (10Y ~4.08%, 30Y ~4.67% vs 2Y ~3.56%), so duration’s catching hands and TLT is red — classic re-steepen vibes as traders cheer the shutdown ending. Inflation expectations look anchored longer-term, but the 1-year’s stickier, and with a potential data void (October jobs and CPI may never drop), each headline can move the tape. Tech is back in the driver’s seat (XLK +0.83%). Cisco’s AI networking print/guidance fuels the infra trade, while Applied Materials’ outlook says flat first half before possible AI/memory ramp later. Nvidia earnings next week is the boss fight — bulls see runway, one bear still grumbling. Healthcare’s a tad soft (XLV −0.21%) but M&A buzz (Merck buying Cidara for $9.2B) keeps the scalpers interested. Financials (XLF −0.62%) lag despite the steeper curve — looks more stock-specific than macro. Energy (XLE +0.31%) rides a crude pump (USO +2.67%) on Venezuela/Russia supply risk chatter. Metals lose their shine — gold and silver get tapped — while nat gas drifts. Dollar’s a touch firmer; crypto’s split with BTC heavy and ETH steadier. Playbook: let yields drift, not spike; ride tech strength into next week’s AI earnings; keep one eye on year-end funding chatter and the other on energy headlines. It’s recalibration, not regime change — so far, the rocket still has fuel.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Stocks open lower as tech leads declines; bonds bid, oil firms, crypto extends slide

11/14/2025 09:38 AM • Red open and it’s the growth unwind speedrun. QQQ is bleeding more than SPY and DIA, with XLK limping hard out of the gate as traders rotate from mega-cap magic into defensive vitamins. Breadth still stinky, leverage gremlins lurking, and every dip feels like a forced de-risk as the AI heroes catch their breath. Bonds got the memo first: duration bid, yields easing, 10Y hanging near 4.08% while long end chills—call it “higher-for-longer but not forever.” Inflation expectations are parked around the low-2s, which helps, but the policy plot is messy: no October data thanks to shutdown chaos, rate-cut timing debates, and year-end funding jitters on watch. Oil’s the spicy subplot—USO ripping on Venezuela/Russia supply risk chatter—yet XLE only slightly soft, like the tape can’t decide if this is stagflation or just geopolitics cosplay. Precious metals? Getting pancaked. GLD and SLV are getting dunked despite the bond bid—positioning beats narrative today. Crypto is its own gravity well: BTC and ETH extending the slide, adding a risk-appetite headwind without giving clean equity correlations. Corporate headlines are a mixed bag—AI infra names got love in notes, but the tape says profit-taking rules until next week’s earnings catalysts hit. Eyes on December 10 as options desk circle date, and keep a stress radar on funding markets into year-end. Bottom line: growth getting trimmed, defensives holding their shields, bonds cushioning the fall. Trade the rotation, respect the liquidity, and don’t get chopped before the AI scoreboard lights up next week.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday •
Midday market: Tech-led pullback as yields stay elevated; dollar softens vs euro, oil and gas edge higher

11/13/2025 01:35 PM • Higher-for-longer vibes just suplexed growth. At lunch, it’s a rate-driven risk-off: SPY -1.6% to ~672.7, QQQ -2.1% to ~607.8, DIA -1.2%, and small caps get the worst of it with IWM -2.5%. Curve’s upward from the 2Y to the 30Y (2Y 3.58%, 5Y 3.72%, 10Y 4.13%, 30Y 4.71%), breakevens anchored (~2.3s), which keeps real yields biting and duration crying. Sector scoreboard screams rotation: XLK -2.7% laggard, XLF -0.8%, XLE -0.6% even with crude firmer, while XLV sneaks green at +0.4%. Bonds drift (TLT -0.5%, IEF -0.2%, SHY flat), confirming the “no instant easing” message. Dollar eases vs euro (EUR/USD up), but not enough to save metals (GLD -0.2%, SLV -0.6%). Energy’s the only thing with a pulse: USO +0.4%, UNG +1.9%—though a billion barrels idling at sea says “cap that rally.” Crypto? Momentum rug: BTC sub-99k from 102k open, ETH ~3,234 from ~3,482—rates reprice, coins slip. Tape talk is all AI capex cascade: Cisco beats and guides on networking refresh, Micron crowned on DRAM tightening, and Nvidia tees up next week’s boss fight. Meta gets “best idea” on AI ad juice; JD.com pops on better-than-feared. Meanwhile, utilities sweating data-center power costs, Ford vows EVs aren’t optional, Waymo pushes highway autonomy, and labor keeps buzzing (Boeing contract vote, Starbucks barista actions). Shutdown endgame potentially today plus chatter of year-end Fed liquidity support keeps funding-watchers on alert. Bottom line: classic higher-reals day—tech/small caps dump, defensives hold, energy mixed, metals soft. Into the close, semis and mega-cap micro-catalysts decide if we bounce or bellyflop.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Softer open as investors parse shutdown endgame, stubborn inflation views, and firmer commodities

11/13/2025 09:35 AM • Markets rolled out of bed a little grumpy: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all opening slightly red as the value-and-cyclicals victory lap catches its breath. DC drama’s in endgame mode with a House vote to end the shutdown later, but the data blackout lingers—White House says some October jobs/inflation prints may not drop. Rates keep the pressure on duration with 10Y near 4.13% and 30Y ~4.71%, while breakevens sit low-2s, letting stocks tolerate higher nominals as long as growth doesn’t crack. Fed tone is cautious—Cleveland’s Hammack still on inflation patrol, and Bostic’s surprise retirement adds a future personnel wildcard. ADP hints cooler labor into year-end. Bonus chatter: potential $2k household “dividend” checks—near-term consumer juice, possible inflation aftertaste. Tech takes a breather as AI dreams collide with capex and power constraints; even with Cisco’s AI networking beat, AMD’s big talk, and IBM’s quantum breadcrumbs, XLK is stepping back. Financials and healthcare drift. Energy stocks lag while crude’s firm—classic early-session divergence that could snap back if USO stays bid. Gold’s wearing the shiny hat. Bonds slip as duration sulks. Crypto splits the difference: BTC up a touch, ETH a tad soft. Media/consumer is a mixed bag (Disney’s streaming progress vs. other drags, Starbucks strike noise, Paramount reset vibes, JD.com clearing a low bar). Industrials/auto themes stay live—Ford sticking with EVs, Toyota re-arming batteries, and the “robots have won” meme bolstering automation. Watch the shutdown vote, Fed jawboning, AI-infra order flow (power/memory/networking), oil’s floating storage saga, and any fiscal headlines. This looks like digestion, not doom.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close •
Dow leads into the close as financials and health care outperform; gold surges while oil slides with shutdown end in sight

11/12/2025 04:09 PM • Boomer index carried the day. DIA put on the cape (+0.7%) while SPY barely blinked (+0.05%) and QQQ did a polite head nod lower (-0.09%). Under the hood, it was pure rotation: financials and health care ran hot, tech was two-sided, and small caps lagged (IWM -0.25%). Rates backdrop says “orderly”: 2s at 3.55%, 10s at 4.11%, 30s at 4.70% with a positive 2s/10s slope (~56 bps). That lines up with a quiet bid for duration (TLT/IEF green) as the market hedged into policy weirdness. Commodities split like a reality show: gold and silver ripped (GLD +1.6%, SLV +4.1%) while crude face-planted (USO -4.0%); broad commodities (DBC) leaked and nat gas (UNG) squeaked higher. Euro firmed, crypto took a chill pill (BTC and ETH softer). Catalysts? Shutdown end reportedly in sight, but the White House hinted October jobs/CPI might never print. ADP weekly tea leaves pointed to late-October job shedding—soft-ish labor vibes into Q4. Tech storyline was spicy but mixed: AMD threw giant targets at investor day, while SoftBank fully exited NVDA to spread AI bets. CoreWeave chatter split the tape—earnings beat vs a data-center delay—plus rising scrutiny on AI power demand in PJM puts a spotlight on utilities. Toyota’s new U.S. battery plant adds juice to industrial supply chains. Sector scoreboard: XLF +0.87% and XLV +1.41% led; XLK +0.33% net green; XLU +0.23% showed a defensive nibble. Bottom line: rotation mode on—cyclicals and defensives teamed up, tech stayed selective, oil slipped, and gold shined. Watch the shutdown mechanics, the delayed-data flood, oil’s next move, and whether AMD-fueled breadth shows up without NVDA doing all the lifting.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday •
Midday market steadies as shutdown end nears; Dow leads, gold shines while oil slips

11/12/2025 01:34 PM • Shutdown boss fight nearly cleared and the tape’s doing yoga, not CrossFit. Blue chips are carrying: DIA up ~0.8%, SPY barely green (+0.07%), QQQ a hair red (-0.13%), and IWM a touch soggy. Rotation vibes: defensives and banks in front while mega-cap tech cools off. Bond market is the hype-man—long end bid, 10Y parked near 4.11, bull‑steepening feel. TLT/IEF green, SHY a smidge lower. Inflation expectations stay anchored and September CPI isn’t re-accelerating, so equities keep leaning into soft-landing dream while leadership shuffles. Gold and silver stole the show: GLD +1.9%, SLV +4.6%. Oil faceplanted (USO -3.9%), dragging broad commodities (DBC -1%). Energy/Utilities reads are messy thanks to a feed glitch, net flat-ish there. Sector scoreboard: Health Care (XLV) leads (+1.6%), Financials (XLF) up ~1%, Tech (XLK) only modestly higher as AI hype collides with valuation math. AI saga: AMD sparked chatter with investor-day “giant numbers,” but the street wants rollout timing and who actually monetizes once depreciation-heavy capex hits—winner list may narrow. Autos/industrial electrification keep humming: Ford won’t quit EVs, Toyota flipped on a big U.S. battery plant with more spend signaled. Media/platforms mixed: Netflix off highs eyeing sports/ads; IBM drops quantum breadcrumbs. Macro catalysts queued up: House vote to end the shutdown could unlock a data flood (jobs first) and line us up for ~$125B in Treasury auctions—bonds likely to set the near-term vibe. FX/crypto: EURUSD a touch firmer; Bitcoin red, ETHUSD slightly softer. Into the afternoon: watch the vote, auction stats, the data dump, and AI capex updates. For now: blue chips pump, growth chills, duration bids, metals moon, oil gloom.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open •
Stocks open higher with tech in the lead as investors eye Treasury supply, shutdown endgame

11/12/2025 09:35 AM • Green open, growth hat on. QQQ +0.5% at 624.73 is smoking SPY (+0.25%) and DIA (+0.3%) while IWM jogs behind (+0.2%). XLK leads (+0.8%) as AMD’s investor day drops “giant numbers” vibes and rekindles AI-semi thirst. IBM adds spice with new quantum processors aimed at fault-tolerant compute by decade-end—long runway, strong narrative. 10Y ~4.11% with 30Y 4.70% and 2Y/5Y at 3.55%/3.67% keeps a positive 2s–10s slope—friendly for duration-heavy tech. But the boss fight is $125B in Treasury supply: TLT a hair green while IEF/SHY are a tad soft—bull-steepish lean with belly nerves. Clean auctions = multiple expansion; ugly tails = growth cooldown. Shutdown endgame keeps risk perky, but when DC reopens expect a data flood (jobs, CPI) that can rip or clip positioning fast. Commodities say “meh”: oil slumps (USO -2.3%), nudging XLE lower despite IEA chatter that long-run demand can still rise. Metals split—SLV rips ~1.3% while GLD barely green. DBC softer; UNG edges up. Dollar a touch firmer (EURUSD ~1.1563). Crypto flexes: BTCUSD ~104,779 (+1.5%), ETHUSD ~3,567 (+3.5%). Watch the proxies—MSTR stays twitchy even when tokens pump. Playbook: ride tech leadership, respect the auction tape, watch semis for follow-through, and be ready for a post-shutdown data dump to reshuffle rate bets.

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