State of Market Reports (Page 1)

State of Maket Reports Page 1 of 3 • 56 articles

TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 5, 2025 4:08pm (New York)

Stocks edge higher into the close as tech leads and small caps lag; long yields remain above 4%, silver and natural gas rally, Bitcoin slips below $90k

12/05/2025 04:08 PM • Quiet grind higher for the big dogs, sneaky pain everywhere else. SPY eked out +0.18% and DIA nudged +0.20%, but QQQ carried the squad at +0.42% as mega-cap tech kept the scoreboard green. Small caps didn’t get the memo—IWM slipped -0.43% with the cost-of-capital anvil still tied to their ankles. The bond market said “nope” to easy-mode: 10Y parked at 4.06% and 30Y at 4.73%, steep long end keeping duration on a short leash. That zapped TLT/IEF again even as inflation expectations stayed chill (roughly 2.2–2.35% across the curve), feeding the “Fed can cut again” hopium without actually lowering those stubborn long rates. Sector vibes: Tech outperformed (XLK +0.73%) on the same AI-heavy growth drumbeat, while Financials were basically flat and Health Care sagged. Headlines stirred the pot—streaming consolidation chatter (Netflix eyeing WBD assets) spooked media names, AI spending stayed front-page with Meta’s wearable buy and talk of OpenAI burn, and chips caught love with AMAT crowned a top pick. On the consumer tape, Costco softness vs. Dollar General strength screamed K-shaped wallet. Commodities turned up the heat: silver ripped, nat gas sprinted, oil firmed, gold took a breather. Crypto took the L with Bitcoin sliding from ~92k to sub-90k and ETH down more. Into next week: watch the inflation print—benign data plus anchored breakevens could keep the year-end grind alive, but sticky long yields and index reshuffle chatter say keep it selective. Keep one eye on Oracle’s setup and another on the Netflix–WBD regulatory maze. Risk on, but wear a seatbelt.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 5, 2025 4:05pm (New York)

Stocks edge higher into the close as tech leads and small caps lag; long-end yields stay elevated while silver and natural gas rally

12/05/2025 04:05 PM • Risk-on lite into the bell. Big Tech did the heavy lifting again while small caps took a breather. QQQ outran SPY and DIA as XLK flexed on AI/semi/software buzz; IWM slipped red with the long end still barking. Rate backdrop: the latest marks (12/03) keep the curve upward-sloping with 2Y ~3.49%, 10Y ~4.06%, 30Y ~4.73. Positive 2s–10s and long-end >4% = duration drag for bonds and small caps, but anchored breakevens keep quality growth in the driver’s seat as markets lean toward another Fed cut. Bonds bled a little: TLT and IEF down, SHY basically flat. Commodities mixed but lively—gold eased, silver ripped, crude firmed, and nat gas spiked on winter/storage chatter. Crypto cooled off from the open with both BTC and ETH giving back some heat. The storylines matched the tape. AI remained the main character: Google teamed with Replit, Salesforce talked up a powerful pipeline, AMAT got the nod for DRAM/foundry upcycles, while Microsoft’s quota tweaks dinged sentiment and Snowflake’s beat couldn’t keep the stoke after a big run. Media M&A stole headlines as Netflix reportedly pushes to combine with WBD’s studio/Max, a regulatory obstacle course that had investors side-eyeing cash bids. Into next week: the Fed decision looms with cuts back on the table, S&P 500 rebal chatter (MRVL/CVNA watch) could spark flows, and Oracle’s print is the next AI capex vibe check. With 10Y north of 4% and 30Y nearer 4.7%, the long end still calls the shots on factor leadership. Stay nimble, respect duration, ride the mega-cap bid—until the curve says otherwise.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 5, 2025 1:37pm (New York)

Midday market steadies: Tech leads, small caps lag as yields firm and commodities catch a bid

12/05/2025 01:37 PM • Lunch tape is vibing green-but-picky. Big Tech’s doing the heavy lifting: QQQ edges higher while SPY inches up and DIA tags along. Small caps? IWM is the designated bag holder, bleeding a touch and reminding everyone breadth still stinks. Rates are the boss today—TLT, IEF, SHY all softer as yields firm and the curve stays positively sloped. That’s soft-landing energy: not hot enough to scare stocks, not cool enough to bail out duration. Commodities are where the fireworks live—silver ripping, oil and nat gas catching a serious bid, gold modestly green, and the broad basket up. Crypto cooled off after a heater: BTC and ETH sit below their opens as traders reassess sizing after the run. Macro mix is messy but constructive: a delayed inflation read stuck near ~3% keeps rate-cut chatter alive for the next Fed meeting, while jobless claims at a three-year low say the labor market still refuses to crack. Net result: quality growth on top, defensives dragging (healthcare, utilities), financials steady. Micro headlines add spice: Netflix emerging as lead bidder for Warner Bros. Discovery’s assets (~$83B) has the street nervous on execution; AI megacaps stay in the spotlight with chatter around Microsoft, Google’s enterprise coding tie-up, Meta tightening spend, and semi-cap tailwinds for equipment. Retail and airlines toss mixed signals, and Oracle’s print next week is the next boss fight. Bonus volatility watch: S&P 500 committee could drop a rebalance grenade after the close. Eyes on flows and follow-through into the afternoon.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 5, 2025 9:35am (New York)

Stocks edge higher at the open as yields steady; gold rallies, crypto softens ahead of key inflation read

12/05/2025 09:35 AM • Risk-on with training wheels. SPY and QQQ open a notch higher, DIA tags along, but IWM trips again—large caps feast while small caps fast. Yields are steady, keeping the 10Y around the 4% neighborhood and letting multiples breathe. Gold is strutting, crypto is yawning, and the whole tape is bracing for today’s inflation print and the Fed’s year-end mic drop. Tech (XLK) still wears the crown as AI pipes get louder (enterprise demand buzz) and semi-cap gear gets love; investors want real AI dollars, not just vibes. Healthcare (XLV) joins the move, while Financials (XLF) ease as the market reruns the NIM math. Energy (XLE) is meh with oil weighed down by ample supply and OPEC+ noise. Media consolidation drama is the single-name spice: Netflix reportedly front-running a grab for big Warner Bros. Discovery assets—potentially landscape-shifting, but investor reactions look wary on price and payback. On the consumer tape, trade-down stays meta: Dollar Tree beat and Dollar General gained share, while Costco cooled as sales decelerated. Payments got a contrarian nod (Visa, Toast), but SoFi ate a selloff after a $1.5B stock raise—beta tax in effect. Bonds are flat-to-slightly green (TLT/IEF/SHY), waiting on the data drop. GLD/SLV bid as hedges go on; USO drifts, UNG pops on weather, DBC flat. EURUSD steady backdrop; BTCUSD and ETHUSD softer, digesting gains. Playbook: cooler inflation = risk and duration rip; hotter = repricing party. Watch breadth and small-cap participation for real durability.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 4, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Small caps lead while megacaps tread water; bonds soften and commodities firm ahead of key inflation print

12/04/2025 04:04 PM • Rotation station. IWM laced up rocket boots while QQQ caught its breath, and SPY squeaked green as the market broadened beneath the hood. Tech and financials quietly carried the torch; health care face-planted; energy ETF ticked down even as crude and nat gas firmed. Bonds got tapped across the curve with yields inching up and the term structure still tilted higher—classic pre-inflation jitters. Commodities said “we lift”: oil and gas up, broad basket up, but silver cooled off after record-level hype earlier this week. Crypto stayed spicy with Bitcoin hanging above 92k and ETH easing—elevated, but consolidating. AI headlines kept the servers humming: AWS rolled fresh chips and hugged Nvidia tighter, while Marvell moved on Celestial AI to juice accelerated networking—the infra arms race isn’t slowing, even if software monetization is staggered (Salesforce strong talk, Snowflake meh on decel). Financials rode the small-cap and curve vibes, consistent with a “no-hire, no-fire” labor backdrop and anchored long-run inflation expectations. All eyes on Friday’s inflation print—the tape is priced for a soft-landing encore. A cool number likely boosts duration and keeps the small-cap catch-up party alive. A hot surprise re-prices the front end and dunks the long-duration stuff, especially rate-sensitive software. After that, the Fed’s year-end meeting: the street flirted with a quarter-cut on soft hiring, but Friday decides the vibe. For now, breadth > bloat. Keep an eye on OPEC+ noise, Venezuela headlines, and silver tourist flows while crypto remains the macro wild card.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 4, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday markets: Small caps lead while bonds soften; commodities mixed as oil firms and silver retreats

12/04/2025 01:33 PM • Midday tape says risk-on… but keep the seatbelt clicked. Small caps are doing cardio with IWM ripping while SPY and DIA barely jog higher. QQQ is the lone wallflower, down a hair as mega-cap tech digests a week of AI chest-thumping. Sector rotation screams cyclical: XLF and XLK firm, XLV gets benched, XLE flat-ish while crude flexes. Rates are the bouncer—long end firmer, curve upright from 2s to 30s, real yields positive. Translation: TLT/IEF red and duration isn’t your friend unless growth really rolls over. Commodities split the bill: oil up, gold sips, silver spills its drink after a big run. Crypto cools intraday after earlier strength—still in “healthy consolidation” mode. Macro tea leaves are messy but market-friendly: ADP shows private job losses again, claims hit a three-year low around Thanksgiving, ISM services still expanding with easing price pressure. Traders are leaning into the “dovish” read—whispers of a quarter-point Fed cut as soon as next week—just as real yields stay sticky. That combo fuels the small-cap squeeze while keeping long bonds in time-out. Stock stories keep the AI debate spicy: Salesforce hyped the pipeline, Snowflake beat but product growth slowed, Oracle nerves into prints, Microsoft headlines split between OpenAI safety net and sales execution pressure, Meta trimming metaverse burn bolstered sentiment. Marvell popped on a rosy outlook plus a Celestial AI deal; Applied Materials got the nod as a cycle winner. Elsewhere, Boeing’s prior surge lifted spirits, dollar stores outdrove Costco’s slowdown, and media names wobbled on WBD deal chatter. Into the afternoon: Does IWM leadership hold, do tech internals firm, and do long yields chill? If rates keep grinding up, duration and high-multiple names could feel it. Watch energy inventories and value-hunting consumers into year-end.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 4, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open slightly higher as claims hit 3-year low; yields steady, mega-cap tech and media headlines in focus

12/04/2025 09:33 AM • Soft flex at the bell: indexes tiptoe higher as the labor market does a “no-hire, no-fire” routine and the long end of the curve keeps its foot on the valuation scale. SPY and QQQ drift green, DIA follows, but IWM snoozes—classic quality-growth bid when the 10-year hangs near 4.09% and the 30-year lounges at 4.74%. Rate-cut hopium just met reality check: claims at a three-year low keep recession bears on mute while keeping duration risk loud. Tech and media own the headlines. Media M&A buzzed as bids for WBD hit the table and chatter crowned NFLX and PARA as favorites—problem is, wallets screamed, and both suitors got dunked earlier on cash concerns. In AI/software land: CRM thumped the table on an AI-loaded pipeline, but SNOW’s decelerating product growth said the bar’s high. MRVL tried the fast lane, snapping up Celestial AI for up to $5.5B to bulk up its data-center plumbing. MSFT got shade on AI sales pacing, with dip-bulls calling “opportunity.” CRWD flexed tighter with AWS, keeping the cloud-security flywheel spinning. Industrials mixed: BA lifted spirits with delivery optimism; DAL trimmed Q4 on a shutdown hit but demand still hums. BMY stayed perky on Alzheimer’s hopes. META ate EU antitrust heat—platform risk never sleeps. Bonds eased (TLT red) as risk turned faintly on. Metals faded (silver gives back some moon), oil flat, nat gas softer. Euro edges up; crypto cools after a two-week pop. Playbook: ride mega-cap momentum while respecting the long-end boss fight; watch media deal tape, AI capex, and any curve lurch into the next Fed move.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 3, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Cyclicals lead late-day advance as banks and small caps outperform; bonds firm, energy lags despite oil uptick

12/03/2025 04:03 PM • Risk-on into the bell. Cyclicals grabbed the stick and never let go: SPY +0.33%, DIA +0.88% (Boeing jet fuel), and small caps went full send with IWM +1.82%. QQQ still green (+0.25%) but lagged the muscle trade. Under the hood, banks were the MVPs as XLF +1.33% rode chilled rate vol and a friendlier curve, while tech tiptoed (XLK +0.24%) and health care kept grinding (XLV +0.47%). Energy face-planted (XLE −0.31%) even with oil and gas firmer (USO +0.67%, UNG +3.42%)—OPEC+ supply creep kept the party capped. Bonds caught a bid across the curve (TLT +0.27%) with the 10Y hanging near 4.09%; 2s/10s modestly positive = no panic, just steady-as-she-goes. Macro was a tasty two-piece: ADP showed private payrolls shrinking again (hiring cools), but ISM services extended expansion with easing prices—soft landing vibes. Tariff cloud still hovering; Supreme Court ruling looming and Treasury hinting backup plans. Watch funding plumbing too in case the Fed has to grab a wrench. Abroad, BOJ jawboned a possible hike—could tug flows and the yen. AI complex stayed noisy: Marvell popped on an upbeat guide and a splashy Celestial AI buy; AWS flexed new in-house chips while cozying up further to Nvidia. Microsoft had AI quota chatter but dipters circled. Industrials stole the show—Boeing teased higher 737/787 deliveries and better 2026 cash, juicing the Dow. Consumers split: Dollar Tree beat on trade-down traffic while Macy’s cooled after a run. Media M&A roulette spun with Netflix and Paramount circling WBD—buyers skittish on cash-heavy talk. Crypto rotation continued: ETH ripped while BTC napped. Next up: payrolls, tariffs, funding-facility smoke signals, BOJ, and AI monetization checks.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 3, 2025 1:34pm (New York)

Midday market: Small caps and banks lead while energy lags; bonds firmer, crypto mixed

12/03/2025 01:34 PM • Midday tape says breadth unlocked. Small caps are doing victory laps and financials are the engine room, while energy is the kid jogging in from outfield. Bonds are firm, yields a touch lower, and that’s giving SPY, DIA, and especially IWM some extra juice. Macro is a two-speed mixtape: ADP shows softer private payrolls (Fed-friendly), but ISM services keeps expanding. Manufacturing still snoozing, with tariff noise lurking as the Supreme Court looms. BOJ hike chatter and U.S. funding-plumbing jitters are the wild cards that could yank rates around. Tech is steady-green, not manic. AI remains the headline hog: Marvell buying Celestial AI with upbeat guide, Amazon rolling fresh AI chips and cozying up to Nvidia, and everyone noting Big Tech’s capex bonfire—bullish for the build-out, trickier for multiples. Industrials are having a day with Boeing leading on better cash flow and delivery outlooks—pure cyclical sauce that also lifts the Dow. Energy lags despite crude and nat gas bouncing; OPEC+ unwind vibes keep a ceiling on XLE enthusiasm. Metals cool off after a heater—gold and silver easing into this risk-on mood. Crypto is mixed: BTC slightly red, ETH green, with Vanguard opening the door to third-party crypto ETFs, a small but notable access upgrade. Into the afternoon, watch tariffs, funding-market stress, and BOJ signals. If yields stay anchored and services hum, the small-cap/financial rotation can keep carrying the baton while AI headlines steer tech positioning.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 3, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open mixed as bonds firm; soft private payrolls and steady inflation expectations frame the morning tone

12/03/2025 09:34 AM • Tape opens like a seesaw: big boys wobble while the little guys sprint. SPY is a hair under yesterday, QQQ leaks as mega-cap tech leadership cools, and DIA is basically napping. IWM shows up with energy, signaling rotation down-cap as traders sniff a softer macro glide path. Why? Bonds got the memo: TLT and IEF are bid with the 10Y parked near 4.09% and inflation expectations steady. Private payrolls slipped again (third time in four months), bolstering the “Fed can chill later” narrative. Curve’s up through the long end, and duration is wearing the crown at the open. Sector scorecard says Financials and Health Care on the front foot, Tech slightly soggy, Energy a touch green despite oil stuck in neutral. Gold shines with GLD up, silver lags, crude (USO) flat, nat gas (UNG) perking on seasonal vibes. Crypto’s split: BTC drifts under its open while ETH edges higher — flows and liquidity still driving. Micro headlines add spice: Boeing optimism on 737/787 deliveries keeps aerospace sentiment aloft; retail is bifurcated with Dollar Tree’s value pitch winning while Macy’s cools after a strong run. AI buildout remains a full-contact sport: Marvell buying Celestial AI, Nvidia cozying with Synopsys, and Amazon pounding the table on custom silicon and cloud capacity. But whispers of an “AI air pocket” into next year keep froth in check. Watch Salesforce after the bell for proof that AI features can actually monetize. Big picture: softer labor + anchored inflation = bond bid, small-cap pop, defensive tilt. Next catalysts: funding-market chatter, upcoming labor/price prints, and whether software can re-grab the narrative.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 2, 2025 4:02pm (New York)

Tech leads late-day climb as yields stay contained; small caps lag and energy softens with oil

12/02/2025 04:02 PM • Mega-caps put the team on their back again. SPY squeaked higher while QQQ did laps into the close, powered by AI/software hype and clean rate vibes. DIA caught a tailwind from Boeing buzz about fatter 737/787 deliveries next year. Meanwhile, small caps face-planted the couch—IWM lagged as breadth stayed meh. Rates stayed chill enough for growth to flex: last seen 10Y around 4.02% with inflation expectations anchored. That kept TLT/IEF/SHY inching up across the curve—just enough oxygen for tech rockets, not enough to cook financials. Sector tape told the story: XLK strong on NVDA–Synopsys partnership headlines and a market that still pays for visible AI monetization. XLF flat with nothing spicy from rates. XLV slipped on vaccine chatter. XLE red as crude cooled and OPEC+ stuck to a pause, with Russian flows adding drag to sentiment. Metals split the bill—gold took a rest while silver kept shining. DBC said commodities light; energy led the fade. FX/crypto leaned risk-on at the margin: euro firmer, dollar softer, and crypto ripped—BTC back over 91k, ETH near 3k—helped by talk of broader ETF access even as bears whispered about potential forced selling elsewhere. Headlines kept the macro soap opera spicy: ISM still contraction mode, BoJ jawboning hike risk, and Fed-chair handicapping in the background. Concentration risk remains real—indices still riding a handful of titans. Next up: watch Salesforce for AI monetization proof, yields for any policy swerve, and IWM for signs of life. Until then, it’s the same playbook: steady rates, tech dominance, energy squish.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 2, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday markets: Tech leads, Boeing lifts the Dow as yields steady near 4%; gold slips while crypto rebounds

12/02/2025 01:33 PM • Green candles for lunch. QQQ is doing the heavy lifting while SPY grinds and DIA gets jet fuel from Boeing. IWM’s peeking green too—broad, not blowout. The macro seatbelt stays fastened: 10Y near 4% with a gentler 2s/10s slope, inflation expectations anchored, and ISM manufacturing still contracting (tariffs blamed). That combo = duration gets a hug, growth gets room to run. XLK leads again on the AI cloud, while XLF is meh and XLV lags as rotation favors tech/cyclicals. Single-stock fireworks: Boeing’s CFO teased higher 737/787 deliveries next year and better cash flow—industrial bid engaged, Dow smiling. In chips, Nvidia’s deeper linkup with Synopsys keeps the AI toolchain narrative spicy, with some takes calling NVDA’s multiple less scary than history. Apple is reshuffling AI research chairs—strategic vibe, not a day-trade trigger. Sell-side still pounding the table on AMZN (cloud capacity ramp), ORCL (bears too gloomy), and META (clearer AI monetization path despite big spend). Tesla posted rare China sales growth in November—a much-needed green shoot. Bonds bid modestly (TLT/IEF up) as that soft ISM print and steady yields play nice. Gold chills (GLD down), silver sneaks higher, commodities softer, and energy eases with OPEC+ pausing supply hikes amid surplus worries. Crypto’s perking up—BTC and ETH bouncing as a major U.S. asset manager opens the door to third-party crypto ETFs, with technicians eyeing a near-term reversal. Risks? Concentration still king (mega-cap carry), BOJ hike chatter is a global rates wildcard, and manufacturing softness lingers. Watch for QQQ/XLK follow-through, broadened participation into XLF/IWM, and whether 10Y ~4% keeps the risk-on runway clear.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 2, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks open firmer as yields steady; small caps lead while oil slips and crypto rebounds

12/02/2025 09:33 AM • Green light at the bell and the rates cop is napping. SPY drifts up, QQQ flexes a bit more, and the real spice is IWM leading—small caps actually grabbing the wheel for once. That’s what you get when the 10-year hangs around 4.02% and breakevens whisper low-2% inflation: Goldilocks-lite vibes, nothing on fire, risk gets curious. BOJ’s Ueda teased a hike and rattled some global bonds, but stateside it’s a shrug—TLT a touch soggy, front end steady. ISM still showing manufacturing contraction keeps growth expectations tame and volatility contained. Tech’s wearing the crown early: XLK pops as AI headlines keep the dopamine flowing—Nvidia throwing money at Synopsys and Apple reshuffling the machine-learning war room. Financials catch a small bid with a quiet curve. Energy’s the weird one: XLE green while USO slides as OPEC+ pauses supply hikes but crude keeps sulking—something’s gotta reconverge if that keeps up. Healthcare drifts lower on vaccine headline risk around a rare heart condition, but that’s a narrow hit. Metals split the uprights: GLD cools after a heater, SLV keeps grinding. Euro ticks up, dollar softer—helps the risk mood. Crypto shakes off the holiday slump; BTC and ETH bounce near 2% with chatter about broader ETF access vs. a potential corporate seller. Big picture: breadth watch is on. Alphabet and Nvidia have carried a chunk of the year’s gains—great until it isn’t. If small caps keep leading while rates stay anchored, we might actually get a December where more than five names do the heavy lifting. Eyes on BOJ signals, Fed chair tea leaves, and whether oil’s pout drags energy back to reality.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Dec 1, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks slip to start December as yields firm; tech shows relative strength while precious metals advance

12/01/2025 04:04 PM • December clocked in with a red candle as rates took the wheel. The 10-year parked right at 4.00% and the 30-year at 4.64%, and duration got body-slammed (TLT, IEF down) while stocks wobbled. SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all slipped, with blue chips and small caps wearing the biggest bruises. The plot twist: tech still flexed—XLK squeaked green—while precious metals ripped, with gold and silver catching a clean bid as the euro firmed and real-rate vibes stayed tame. Global curve boss today was Japan: BoJ’s Ueda hinting at a possible hike rattled bonds worldwide on repatriation fears, pushing term premia up and making long bonds the piñata. Stateside macro was a split-screen: ISM manufacturing contracted for a ninth straight month (tariffs called out), but holiday shopping came in hot, keeping the consumer not-dead-yet narrative alive. Sector scoreboard said “pick your spots.” Financials eased with the curve weirdness, Health Care lagged on vaccine-safety headline heat, and Energy traded heavy even with crude basically flat and OPEC+ pausing planned supply increases for three months. Under the hood, the AI tape stayed noisy: chatter that Nvidia looks “almost historically cheap,” NVDA dropping $2B into Synopsys, and Workday getting clipped on trimmed subscription guidance—classic dispersion inside tech. Crypto did its own rollercoaster: BTC and ETH faded from opens but swung in wide ranges, as headlines ping-ponged between “reversal incoming” and “downside risk still alive.” Bottom line: rates wrote the script, tech and metals found the bid, and December’s tone now hinges on whether that 4% handle sticks or slips.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Dec 1, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday market check: Stocks edge lower as energy and healthcare lag; precious metals rally; bonds slip

12/01/2025 01:33 PM • December rang the bell and the market hit snooze. Indices are a touch red with Dow and small caps face-planting while mega-cap tech plays lifeguard. SPY and QQQ are barely down, DIA drags, and IWM is the problem child as ISM shows manufacturing contracting again and tariff costs bite. Sector rotation is skinny: XLK grinds higher on fresh AI juice—Nvidia’s $2B drop into Synopsys and partnership headlines scream “keep building the AI moat”—but energy and healthcare are getting worked. XLE sinks even after OPEC+ paused supply hikes; demand/surplus anxiety wins. XLV slumps on vaccine headline risk. Rates aren’t your friend either: bonds slip across the curve, 10Y hovering near 4%, and duration (TLT) gets tagged. Both stocks and bonds red = hedges not hedging. Precious metals flex instead. Gold and especially silver rip, signaling a “store-of-value” bid while the dollar eases versus the euro. Oil is meh, gas catches a weather bid. Crypto cools off its holiday sugar rush with chatter that the biggest corporate bagholder might need to tap the sell button—thin-liquidity vibes magnify the wiggles. Big picture: breadth stays narrow, concentration heavy—Alphabet and Nvidia still carrying a silly chunk of the year’s gains. Value might have its day later, but today the tape pays for AI visibility and punts on cyclicals. Watch the next data prints and the Fed-chair rumor mill; leadership durability in AI, energy’s surplus overhang, and healthcare headlines are your near-term drivers. Until then, it’s headline hopscotch into the close.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Dec 1, 2025 9:33am (New York)

Stocks start December on the back foot as yields firm and metals shine

12/01/2025 09:33 AM • December kicks off with a gut check: stocks red, yields flexing, metals shining. SPY -0.6%, QQQ -0.9%, and small caps faceplant with IWM -1.3% as the long end pops and TLT gets smacked. Dollar eases vs the euro, but that’s not saving growth—higher real rates pinch AI winners and the most rate-sensitive names. Tech (XLK) leads the fade, Energy (XLE) slips with softer crude, Financials (XLF) can’t turn green despite the yield nudge, and Health Care (XLV) is the least bad. Bond tape screams “yields up across the curve” (TLT/IEF/SHY all lower). Keep an eye on the 10-year hovering around 4%—a push higher keeps the risk-off hat on and tightens the screws on valuations. Meanwhile, Team Shine shows up: GLD and SLV green on euro strength and a bid for ballast; silver outrunning gold. Oil (USO) stays soggy even with headline risk, while nat gas (UNG) sneaks higher. Broad commodities mixed. Crypto vibes: BTC steady-to-firm from the open, ETH flat, but the chatter about potential forced selling keeps nerves alert—liquidity matters. Under the hood, AI still drives the narrative even on a red tape: Synopsys bagged a $2B check plus an Nvidia tie-up, while software stalwart Workday caught heat on subscription guidance. Airbus turbulence reminds everyone idiosyncratic risk is alive. Last week’s CME hiccup was a PSA that market plumbing counts. Setup: anchored medium-term inflation expectations but rates still sensitive = narrow leadership and rotation risk. Into December, watch 10Y at 4%, the sticky front-end inversion, metals follow-through on a softer dollar, oil vs geopolitics, and any fresh AI-capex breadcrumbs. Red morning, not panic—just a reset after a hot Thanksgiving run.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 28, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks grind higher into the close as tech and financials lead; gold and silver extend gains while long bonds slip

11/28/2025 04:03 PM • Holiday week melt-up complete. QQQ led the charge as tech re-claimed the crown, SPY/DIA/IWM all green, and financials helped push the sled. Health care was the only one tripping over its shoelaces. Under the hood, the tape said “risk-on but choosy”: mega-cap/AI vibes rekindled with chatter about Meta and Microsoft’s best week since May, Alphabet hype over chips, and a tug-of-war in the AI supply chain where Nvidia’s swoon looked more fear than fundamentals while AMD wore the monthly dunce cap. Dell tossed coal on the AI server furnace; Workday reminded everyone guidance still matters. Retail had sauce too—Urban Outfitters execution buzz and Kohl’s with a results-backed meme-ish pop as Black Friday seasonality tees up the year-end runway. Rates stayed sticky: 2y ~3.43%, 10y ~4.01%, curve +~58 bps. Translation: growth-scare narrative cooling, but term premium still pinches duration—TLT/IEF bled while SHY shrugged. That backdrop juiced the shiny stuff: GLD ripped and SLV absolutely sent, with oil, nat gas, and the broad commodity basket firming as well. Euro ticked up, dollar eased a touch. Crypto was a split—BTC chilled just under flat but kept its 90k badge, while ETH outpaced. One operational hiccup: CME paused futures earlier thanks to a cooling snafu—didn’t dent cash closes, but a reminder that market plumbing matters. Big picture into December: data dependency on jobs/wages is max, chatter about a potential new Fed chair before Christmas is a wild card for the front end, and the Santa window is open—but dispersion is the boss. Pick winners, dodge landmines.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 28, 2025 9:32am (New York)

Stocks open firmer on Black Friday as long-end yields steady; gold and crypto extend gains

11/28/2025 09:32 AM • Thin tape, green screens. Black Friday opens risk-on with SPY/QQQ/DIA/IWM all up ~0.2–0.3% as the long end chills: 10-year parked near 4% and 30-year under 4.7%. That re-steepening vibe is comfy for Financials and keeps duration panic muted. Tech leads, Healthcare drifts, and Energy wakes up for a tactical bounce. Metals are the show—gold grinding higher and silver ripping—while oil and nat gas catch a bid. Crypto’s still spicy with Bitcoin holding north of 90k and ETH over 3k. Early drama: CME briefly iced futures on a data center cooling hiccup—reminder that thin holiday sessions can turn small sparks into big swings. AI remains the arena. Alphabet is flexing TPUs, flirting with a $4T watermark and screen-flashing “overbought,” while Nvidia and AMD eat some rotation as the market gets picky about who wins the accelerator arms race. Dell touts broader AI server demand; software’s on notice after Workday’s guide wobble. Bonds say “steady, not sleepy”: TLT/IEF edging lower as front-end SHY stays flat—no disorderly inflation, but no fast-easing fantasy either. Seasonality tailwind is in play into year-end; just remember the float is light. Watch if early green holds into the shortened close, whether metals keep shining with stable real yields, if crude can base after a rough year, and whether crypto’s >90k momentum invites the next push toward six figures or a quick reset. Risks: thin liquidity whips, ops glitches, a hawkish Fed on hot labor, or a growth scare kneecapping cyclicals.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 26, 2025 4:03pm (New York)

Stocks and bonds climb into the holiday; tech and energy lead while gold, silver, oil and crypto advance

11/26/2025 04:03 PM • Markets rolled into Thanksgiving with a full plate of green. Broad rally, real breadth: SPY +0.69%, QQQ +0.89%, DIA +0.66%, IWM +0.89%. Tech and energy wore the crown (XLK +1.17%, XLE +1.32%) while defensives napped (XLV -0.25%). That’s risk-on vibes with cyclical seasoning. Rates cooled just enough to keep the party going—10Y camped near 4.04%, long end eased, TLT up. Dollar softened at the edges, and the shiny stuff popped: SLV ripped +3.7%, GLD +0.8%. Oil and nat gas joined the feast (USO +1.1%, UNG +3.1%), lining up with XLE’s strength. Crypto ignored the skeptics and moon-walked anyway: BTC and ETH both up ~3%. Macro backdrop: the Fed says the economy is muddling along, jobless claims at a 7-month low, mortgage rates edging down. December FOMC is the main course, with a spicy side of “new Fed chair?” chatter that could jostle term premium. AI capex remains the storyline. Alphabet flexed chip ambitions (1M AI chips by 2027 chatter) and buzzed on custom silicon traction; Amazon planning up to $50B for U.S. gov AI infra; Dell rode AI servers to upbeat talk. Semis are a tug-of-war—Nvidia clapping back at critics while AMD endures its roughest month in years. Software isn’t a monolith: Workday trimmed guides and got dinged. Retail warm-up: Urban Outfitters and Kohl’s drew kudos, but Black Friday deals might be mid thanks to tariffs and dynamic pricing—watch promos and margins. Bottom line: easing rate fears + anchored inflation expectations = risk appetites perking up. Next up: labor prints, Fed tone, and whether holiday spend brings the gravy without torching margins.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 26, 2025 1:33pm (New York)

Midday Market Brief: Equities climb into Thanksgiving eve as curve steepens, gold and oil advance, crypto rallies

11/26/2025 01:33 PM • Thanksgiving eve melt-up and the gravy is risk-on. Broad tape climbing: SPY, QQQ, DIA, and even the small-cap gobblers (IWM) are green as the Treasury curve keeps un-inverting and the dollar chills. Yields are laid out like a normal menu (2Y ~3.46%, 10Y ~4.04%, 30Y ~4.68%), breakevens hang near 2.3%, and that combo screams soft-landing vibes instead of recession spook stories. Claims just hit a seven-month low, business investment is humming (AI-led), and easing mortgage rates are sprinkling optimism for 2026. Financials grab the stuffing—steeper curve = happier NIMs. Tech is up but rotating: in-house silicon momentum (Alphabet chatter, potential chips to peers, 1M units by 2027) is pushing a leader-board reshuffle while servers/integrators boost outlooks and some discrete chip names feel the competitive heat. Energy catches a bid with crude firm and global financing headlines; Health Care is a touch softer as policy/drug-pricing crosscurrents offset weight-loss data pops. Bonds say “meh but fine”: TLT up, IEF flat, SHY a tick lower—consistent with contained policy risk and some term premium out the curve. Metals sparkle (gold/silver up), broad commodities firm, nat gas pops on winter/LNG sensitivity. EURUSD nudges higher, giving commodities and multinationals an FX tailwind. Crypto goes full holiday mode: BTC and ETH ripping into thinner liquidity despite a skeptical column—vol stays spicy. Big picture: constructive into the long weekend so long as policy surprises and earnings landings behave. Eyes next on claims/Fed chatter, AI capex cadence, Black Friday real-time spend, and any fresh oil/metals supply headlines.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 26, 2025 9:34am (New York)

Stocks open firmer ahead of holiday; tech steadies on AI narrative as yields hover near 4%

11/26/2025 09:34 AM • Holiday tape came out swinging. QQQ is doing victory laps while SPY and DIA jog higher; IWM is the wallflower. Rates are calm-ish with the 10Y parked around 4.04% and the long end at 4.68%, so growth multiples keep their glow even as bond ETFs slip. AI is still the main character: Alphabet’s custom-chip drumbeat and chatter about hyperscalers testing alternatives has XLK leading, even if it makes NVDA/AMD stans a little squeamish. Big picture? Claims slid to a seven‑month low, mortgage rates pulled back, and inflation expectations are anchored ~2.3% long-run—clean soft‑landing vibes into a thin holiday week. Sector flow: Tech flexes, financials firm on steadier yields and resilient labor, energy equities catch a bid despite crude dipping, and health care lags on lingering headline risk. On the single-name board, GOOGL sentiment stays spicy on chips and ecosystem knock‑ons (AVGO and server cousins like DELL getting love). NVDA/AMD see wobble on the custom silicon narrative, but the total AI compute pie still looks supersized. AMZN chatter about up to $50B for AI infra (gov cloud workloads) screams long-duration capex. Retail’s a mixed snack: URBN and KSS rally on execution and clarity, while Black Friday watch starts now—traffic, baskets, and “are these deals real?” will set the tone. Commodities say hedge me: GLD/SLV firmer, nat gas up, crude soft. Crypto’s catching its breath in consolidation mode. Thin liquidity + long weekend = mind the gaps.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 25, 2025 4:04pm (New York)

Stocks advance into the close as small caps and cyclicals lead; bonds firm, oil slips, euro strengthens

11/25/2025 04:04 PM • Green day with real breadth. SPY +0.9%, QQQ +0.6%, DIA +1.5%, but the star was IWM ripping +2.2% as cyclicals and domestics took the wheel. Why? Yields stayed chill: 10Y parked near 4.06%, 2Y ~3.51%. That anchored curve boosted anything duration‑sensitive and let financials and healthcare flex while tech kept a modest bid. Bonds even caught a vibe, with TLT/IEF inching up. Energy was the odd one out as crude slid again. Policy drama juiced the tape: Treasury’s Scott Bessent hinted there’s a solid shot a new Fed chair gets named before Christmas. Meanwhile, December FOMC sits on a knife’s edge—labor gauges (job openings, wages, consumer vibes) are the coin flips, but medium‑term inflation expectations remain anchored around 2.3%ish, feeding the soft‑landing crowd. AI stayed spicy. Alphabet’s custom chips are reportedly on Meta’s whiteboard, Gemini chatter is heating up vs. OpenAI, and Amazon lobbed in up to $50B for U.S. government AI buildout—fuel for the capex supercycle across compute, networking, and power. Retail is all promos and value into the holiday sprint, with Burlington and Kohl’s in the headlines. Healthcare printed dispersion: Novo Nordisk got a weight‑loss win even as an oral GLP‑1 for Alzheimer’s flopped; XLV still led defensives. Cross‑asset: oil down (USO −1.7%), nat gas weaker (UNG −4%), broad commodities softer. Gold flat but still elevated on the year; silver ticked green. Euro firmed (EURUSD ~1.1559), while crypto sagged (bitcoin −1.1%, ether −0.2%). Watchlist: breadth continuation (small caps/financials), holiday sales run‑rates, and any Fed chair headlines. A surprise in jobs or inflation and this whole rotation gets stress‑tested fast.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Midday • Nov 25, 2025 1:36pm (New York)

Midday markets lean risk-on as small caps and cyclicals lead; bonds firm, oil and gas slide

11/25/2025 01:36 PM • Midday tape screaming rotation. Small caps threw on the cape, old-man Dow’s pumping iron, and mega-cap tech is catching its breath. SPY is solidly green, QQQ barely above water, DIA cruising, and IWM ripping—beta and domestic cyclicals back in the driver’s seat while AI tourists hydrate. Bonds got the memo too: with the 10-year hanging near 4.06% and inflation expectations anchored in the mid-2s, TLT/IEF/SHY are bid, easing the macro headache and greasing the small-cap wheels. Energy? Someone spilled it—USO and UNG are sliding, while GLD keeps its chin up and SLV wobbles. Sector story is clean: XLF and XLV lead the charge, XLK flat-to-softer after yesterday’s AI sugar rush. Policy chatter is a live catalyst—Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated a very good chance of a new Fed chair before Christmas and doesn’t see a 2026 recession, but the hawk-vs-dove soap opera keeps every jobs and wages tick a market-moving event into the December meeting. AI plot twist: talk that Meta may tap Alphabet’s custom chips plus Gemini buzz spreads the love beyond a single GPU hero—leadership inside tech is getting picky. Abroad and aisles: Alibaba pops on a revenue beat and AI flex; Burlington misses on sales; Kohl’s names a permanent CEO. EV drama continues with Tesla’s China sales at a three-year low. ECB sniffing around Deutsche Bank is a reminder: financials have landmines even when they’re running. Into the afternoon: watch policy headlines, holiday traffic, OPEC+ tea leaves, and crypto vibes (BTC softer, ETH firmer). If yields stay muted and pump prices drift lower, this cyclical/small-cap party can keep going.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Open • Nov 25, 2025 9:34am (New York)

At the open: Dow and small caps advance, tech eases; yields steady-to-softer as energy and nat gas slide

11/25/2025 09:34 AM • Open bell vibe: value bros flex, silicon stars trip. SPY is basically a coin flip, QQQ sinks ~0.24%, while the boomer basket (DIA) and the small-cap squad (IWM) pop ~0.4% each. That’s a clean rotation into cyclicals/financials/healthcare as bonds catch a friendly bid. Yields are steady-to-softer with the 10Y parked near 4.06% and the 2Y around 3.51%, curve tilted positive out to the 30Y ~4.71%—textbook “rate-cut-more-likely” energy after NY Fed’s Williams sounded dovish and chatter builds for a December trim. Bonus chaos catalyst: Treasury’s Bessent says there’s a real shot a new Fed chair gets named before Christmas. Buckle up for curve whiplash. Tech is the pain trade: XLK bleeds as the AI soap opera heats up—Alphabet’s custom-chip buzz and a possible Meta DC tie-up have investors gaming a more crowded accelerator field. That’s pressure for the usual chip darlings, while financials (XLF) and healthcare (XLV) catch the rotation love. Energy ekes green at the open even as crude and nat gas get body-slammed (USO down >2%, UNG off ~5%). Bonds say “treat”: TLT +0.3%, IEF +0.1%, SHY flat. Gold steady-to-firmer, silver a touch soggy. Overseas and risk beta: EURUSD firmer; crypto chilly with BTC ~-1.4% and ETH ~-0.9%. Single-name spice: Alibaba pops ~5% on an AI-tinged beat; Tesla headlines a China sales low; retail is mixed with Kohl’s slotting a new CEO and Burlington whiffing on warm-weather foot traffic. Watch next: JOLTS/wages, any Fed chair headlines, and whether AI silicon reshuffles keep kneecapping megacap tech or this rotation broadens into the holiday drift.

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TendieTensor.com State of Market Close • Nov 24, 2025 4:02pm (New York)

Stocks climb into the close as tech leads, gold shines, and long yields remain contained

11/24/2025 04:02 PM • Santa beta rally preview unlocked. Tech slammed the gas into the close and the rest of the market finally kept up. QQQ ripped about 2.6% while SPY cruised roughly 1.5%; even small caps flexed with IWM up near 1.8% and blue chips tagged along. This was risk-on with training wheels off: growth leading, breadth improving, and cyclicals not getting left behind. Rates stayed chill enough to let stonks cook. The 10-year hovered near 4.10% with a modestly steeper curve after NY Fed’s John Williams teased the idea of a December cut, and with October CPI canceled and November pushed past the meeting, Fed-speak is steering the bus. Translation: optionality on policy plus contained yields equals green screens. XLK led the charge as AI headlines kept the servers humming. Alphabet’s mojo lifted suppliers (think chips and optics), while chatter on Google’s custom silicon kept rotations spicy under the hood. CNBC’s note that Amazon may spend up to $50B on AI for the U.S. government screamed “capex super-cycle,” with data centers, networking, and power names staying in the spotlight. Tesla played both sides of the meme—talking up AI chips while fighting a sales slump in China. Financials, health care, and energy all printed gains; oil firmed, nat gas snoozed. Bonds caught a friendly bid with TLT and IEF up—easier conditions without recession panic. Gold and silver sparkled on dovish vibes. Even crypto shook off the weekend wobble as BTC and ETH bounced. Next up: Fed jawboning in a data vacuum, holiday spend checks (Black Friday/Cyber Monday), and AI capex math. Thin Thanksgiving liquidity could turn minor headlines into major moves.

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