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DELL

Target Hit - Profit/Loss: 3.64%
Dell Technologies Inc.
Recommendation Date: 11/26/2025 Update: 11/26/2025 10:32 AM (1 updates)
Trade Plan
Risk Score
61
Entry $128.50-$130.50
Exit $134.00-$134.00
Stop Loss $126.50
Horizon 1d
Original Confidence 82%
Updated Confidence 82%
Score 0.860

Evidence
Price at Pick:$129.47
Prior Close:$125.92
MACD Value:-7.290719
MACD Signal:-5.392649
MACD Histogram:-1.898069
Trend:Bearish Momentum
Support Est:$126.60
Resistance Est:$139.86
Current Quote
Price
Change
Open
Volume
Rationale

DELL is the boomer box-maker that just discovered AI crack and shorts won’t stop hitting the sell button. Setup: Stock nuked ~22% in a month, now sitting around $129 after earnings, with RSI in the high 30s. Everyone loaded puts and shorted the dip, but Bank of America is still yelling BUY and the news tape is literally saying “Dell stock rises” on earnings. That’s classic oversold + fresh catalyst fuel. Shorts: - Short interest up nearly 40%, 3.25 days to cover, and almost two-thirds of volume is short. Squeeze score at 80 with every warning light flashing. If this starts grinding up after the bell, bag-holding shorts will be the exit liquidity. Play: - YOLO long between $128.5 and $130.5 if it doesn’t gap to the moon. - First take-profit around $134 for a safe 4%+ scalp, then let the rest ride toward $136–$138 if volume rips and AI/tech stay green. - Hard stop at $123.5 — if it flushes down there, the bounce is dead and you don’t want to be the liquidity. You’re basically betting that post-earnings AI hype + a market that wants rate cuts is enough to make shorts panic-cover a name that’s still way off its recent highs. Not a guaranteed face-melter, but the math says 4–6% intraday is very doable if buyers show up.
Risk Analysis
Range checks: current last_trade_price 128.99 sits within the stated entry range (128.5–130.5) — feasible for execution. Stop at 123.5 is ~4.3% below current and ~0.75×ATR (ATR14 7.2992) — stop is inside 1 ATR but not extremely tight. ATR implies intraday moves of ~5.7% are normal, so targets (134–138) fall within ~4–7% upside — within 1×ATR for the top end. Short interest/days-to-cover is elevated (3.25), which can add squeeze-driven volatility but also downside gamma risk for intraday horizons. Displayed sizes are modest (bid_size 141 / ask_size 100) — watch for slippage on larger fills. Horizon is 1 day (intraday) which increases execution and gap risk.
Updates
11/26/2025 10:32 AM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 138 Exit Min: 134 Stop Loss: 126.5 Horizon Days: 1
Intraday-only thesis: must be closed by end of session regardless of target/stop Bearish MACD still in effect; bounce can fail quickly if market/tech roll over Price remains well below 20/50-day averages, so this is a countertrend trade within a larger down move Elevated short interest cuts both ways: can fuel a squeeze but also reflects entrenched bearish positioning
Trade is working intraday: last ~$131.90 vs. fill ~$129.11, up ~2.2% with no breach of stop ($123.50) and still below the first target band ($134–$138). RSI has lifted from high‑30s to low‑40s, MACD remains bearish but price is reclaiming short-term EMAs, consistent with a reflex bounce off earnings rather than a failed setup. Social and short metrics continue to support the squeeze/bounce angle. With only a 1‑day horizon and the stock already moving in our favor, the key risk is a midday reversal from overextension rather than thesis failure. Keeping the trade ACTIVE, modestly increasing confidence, and tightening risk to lock some profit if momentum fades.
Confidence 82%
Active Tracking
11/26/2025 11:30 AM
Exited: Target Hit
$134.45 (3.82%)
11/26/2025 11:29 AM
Active
$133.81 (3.33%)
11/26/2025 11:28 AM
Active
$133.45 (3.05%)
11/26/2025 11:27 AM
Active
$133.41 (3.02%)
11/26/2025 11:26 AM
Active
$133.42 (3.02%)
11/26/2025 11:25 AM
Active
$133.46 (3.06%)
11/26/2025 11:24 AM
Active
$133.19 (2.85%)
11/26/2025 11:23 AM
Active
$133.15 (2.82%)
11/26/2025 11:22 AM
Active
$132.90 (2.63%)
11/26/2025 11:21 AM
Active
$132.93 (2.65%)
11/26/2025 11:20 AM
Active
$132.64 (2.43%)
11/26/2025 11:19 AM
Active
$132.87 (2.60%)
11/26/2025 11:18 AM
Active
$132.77 (2.53%)
11/26/2025 11:17 AM
Active
$132.71 (2.48%)
11/26/2025 11:16 AM
Active
$132.72 (2.48%)
11/26/2025 11:15 AM
Active
$132.67 (2.45%)
11/26/2025 11:14 AM
Active
$132.71 (2.48%)
11/26/2025 11:13 AM
Active
$132.68 (2.45%)
11/26/2025 11:12 AM
Active
$132.87 (2.60%)
11/26/2025 11:11 AM
Active
$132.89 (2.61%)
11/26/2025 11:10 AM
Active
$132.96 (2.67%)
11/26/2025 09:42 AM
Entered
$129.11 (-0.30%)
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