MU
Expired - Profit/Loss: 0.24%Micron Technology, Inc.
Recommendation Date: 11/26/2025 Update: 11/28/2025 11:33 AM (17 updates)
Trade Plan
Risk Score
61
Entry
$231.13-$236.00
Exit
$248.00-$248.00
Stop Loss
$228.00
Horizon
7d
Original Confidence
90%
Updated Confidence
90%
Score
0.940
Evidence
Price at Pick:$231.13
Prior Close:$224.53
MACD Value:4.505622
MACD Signal:9.039188
MACD Histogram:-4.533567
Trend:Bearish Momentum
Support Est:$204.00
Resistance Est:$260.58
Current Quote
Price
—
Change
—
Open
—
Volume
—
Rationale
Memory king MU is literally getting showered with AI tendies forecasts while the chart is just catching its breath. Morgan Stanley just crowned it their “Top Pick,” blasted the price target to $338, and is screaming about "intensifying shortages across the board" in memory. Citi’s still in the bull camp at $275, and MU keeps popping up on every “Hot AI Stocks” and “Best Growth Stocks” list like the teacher’s pet of the semiconductor classroom. Meanwhile the stock is chilling at $231.13, miles above its 50-day EMA at 203.83 and 50-day SMA at 204.0004, which means the trend is your friend and the friend is rich. MACD histogram is red and ugly (-4.53, bearish_momentum), which here just means we’re buying the dip while everyone else second-guesses a monster AI-cycle uptrend. Shorts are creeping in with si_rising=true and short_volume_ratio ramping to 44.08% versus a 36.59% 5-day average and sv_ratio_accelerating=true, setting up a lovely face-ripper if MU pushes back toward the $260.58 52-week high. Load near $231, aim for mid-$240s+ and let the AI memory famine do the rest.
Micron has a powerful short-term catalyst setup with multiple fresh, AI-driven analyst calls: Morgan Stanley naming MU its “Top Pick” and hiking the target to $338, plus Citi reiterating Buy with a $275 PT, all framed around “intensifying shortages across the board” in memory and inclusion on multiple “Best/Hot AI stocks” lists. Price is pressing near recent highs ($231.13 last vs $260.58 52-week high on 11/17), with strong uptrend confirmation from elevated SMAs/EMAs (sma_50_days at 204.0004 and ema_50_days at 203.8333, both well below spot), indicating any consolidation is occurring above prior bases rather than at resistance breakdowns. MACD shows bearish momentum (macd_histogram -4.5336, macd_state "bearish_momentum"), which fits a short-term digestion after a major run and provides an entry window near the upper half of the recent range while RSI at 52.02 signals neither euphoric overbought nor capitulative oversold conditions. Short interest is moderate with days_to_cover at ~1.03 and rising short_volume_ratio (44.08% latest vs 36.59% 5-day average) and sv_ratio_accelerating=true, implying incremental fuel for a squeeze-like continuation move if price breaks higher on any further AI infrastructure or memory-supply headlines. Combined, the strong and repeated analyst validation, AI infrastructure tailwind, and constructive but cooling momentum argue for a 1-week swing targeting 8–10% upside as the stock re-tests or edges closer to the recent 52-week high range.
Risk Analysis
Range checks: current last_trade_price 229.87 vs entry_min 231.13 — entry is slightly above market (requires buy-on-breakout or small gap up). Stop at 221 is ~3.9% below current and ~0.51 ATR (ATR14 17.4657) — stop is inside 1 ATR which increases stop-hit probability given current volatility. No upcoming earnings listed in the provided earningsCalendar. Positive analyst catalyst and short-volume acceleration are noted, which can increase intraday/near-term volatility. Displayed bid/ask sizes are modest in the snapshot (bid_size 101 / ask_size 520) — use caution on fills and slippage for larger sizes.
Updates
11/28/2025 11:33 AM
Hold
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 228
Horizon Days: 7
MACD still in bearish-momentum regime; trend continuation not yet fully confirmed
Short-interest trend rising, which can add volatility even if ultimately supportive
Price has moved quickly off entry; avoid moving stop up too aggressively to prevent whipsaw
Trade remains valid and is progressing well. Position was filled at 231.47 and MU is now trading around 236.22, meaning the trade is in profit and moving further above the 10/20/50-day averages, confirming the uptrend. RSI in the mid‑50s and MACD still in mild bearish momentum suggest a controlled grind higher rather than a blow‑off; there is no evidence of reversal or thesis failure. No stop or target has been triggered (stop 228 remains safely below, first target 248–255 still ahead), and we are comfortably within the original 7‑day horizon with supportive AI‑demand news flow. Given the constructive price action and improving momentum off the recent consolidation, maintain the trade as ACTIVE with slightly higher conviction, but no need to chase or materially widen risk at this stage.
Confidence 90%
11/28/2025 10:33 AM
Hold
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 228
Horizon Days: 7
MACD still in bearish_momentum (though improving); momentum could stall below target zone
Short-interest trend rising but no near-term squeeze setup (low squeeze score), can add volatility
Position is extended vs 50-day averages; a fast reversal could test the 228 stop before targets
Trade remains active and on track. Price at ~234.09 is above the 231.47 fill and comfortably within the planned entry band, trending higher with RSI mid-50s and MACD still in mild bearish digestion, which fits the original pullback-buy thesis. No stop-loss (228) or target (248–255) has been hit, and the 7-day horizon from 2025-11-26 has not expired. News and social trends remain supportive of the AI/memory bull thesis, and there is no clear invalidation signal in the provided data. Given the quick move off entry but no test of targets yet, risk/reward is still favorable; maintain the position and monitor for a push toward the 248–255 target zone.
Confidence 88%
11/28/2025 09:32 AM
Hold
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 228
Horizon Days: 7
price_above_entry_but_below_target
macd_still_bearish_momentum
short_interest_rising
short_squeeze_score_low_moderate
Trade remains valid and is working: price is above entry ($234.36 vs $231.47 fill) and well above the $228 stop, with no technical or news-based invalidation. RSI has nudged up to ~54, still far from overbought, and MACD remains in mild bearish digestion but with price holding above short- and medium-term averages (sma10, sma20) and far above the 50-day trend, consistent with a healthy uptrend consolidation. Fresh positive AI-demand news, higher social-media attention, and still-rising but manageable short interest continue to support the squeeze/continuation thesis. No rule-based exits are triggered (no stop-loss breach, no target hit, and horizon still within 7 days from 2025-11-26), so the position should remain active. Given the constructive follow-through above entry and stronger tape, confidence is slightly increased. Keeping the original stop and targets is reasonable as the risk/reward remains attractive and volatility does not justify widening levels.
Confidence 90%
11/28/2025 08:32 AM
Hold
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 228
Horizon Days: 7
price_above_entry
approaching_target_zone
macd_bearish_momentum_persists
short_interest_rising_but_not_extreme
Trade remains active and on-plan. Price at ~236.50 is above entry, below the first target zone, and well above the 228 stop. Trend and structure remain constructive: price is riding above short- and medium-term SMAs/EMAs with RSI in the mid-50s and MACD still in mild bearish-momentum digestion, consistent with a controlled consolidation after the recent run and upgrade-driven strength. No evidence yet of thesis breakdown or news reversal; AI-memory narrative and positive coverage remain intact. Given the fast move from ~231 entry toward the upper half of the initial range, risk/reward is slightly less asymmetric than at entry, so confidence is trimmed modestly but still high. Maintain original stop and targets for now and monitor intraday for any sharp rejection spikes near 248–250.
Confidence 88%
11/28/2025 07:32 AM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 228
Horizon Days: 7
GAP_RISK_PREMARKET
MOMENTUM_DIGESTION_MACD_NEGATIVE
ELEVATED_TREND_EXTENSION_ABOVE_MA
SHORT_INTEREST_RISING_BUT_NOT_EXTREME
Trade remains active and healthy. Price has moved from the 231.47 fill to ~237.46, tracking cleanly toward the 248–255 target band with the broader AI/memory thesis fully intact and supported by continued positive coverage. No stop (225) or target (248–255) levels have been touched, and horizon (7 days from 2025-11-26) has not expired. Technically, MU is holding well above all key moving averages (sma20, sma50, ema21, ema50), indicating a strong uptrend with a modest MACD bearish-momentum digestion that is normal after the prior run. RSI in the mid-50s suggests there is still room for upside before overbought risk becomes acute. Short-interest metrics are stable-to-rising but not at squeeze extremes, which is additive, not threatening. Given the swift move in our favor and the strong catalyst/technicals alignment, the risk-reward is still attractive, but we should begin protecting gains in case of a sharp reversal.
Confidence 90%
11/28/2025 06:32 AM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Entry Max: 236
Entry Min: 231.13
Stop Loss: 225
Horizon Days: 7
gap_up_from_entry
momentum_bounce_in_progress
short_interest_rising_but_not_extreme
social_attention_rising
stop_tightened_to_lock_in_risk_control
Trade is active and working. Entry was filled at 231.47 and price is now 237.10, moving cleanly away from both the entry zone and the 223 stop. The trend remains strong with price well above all key SMAs/EMAs and RSI in a healthy mid-50s range. MACD histogram is still negative but improving vs the original setup, consistent with a digestion-to-resumption pattern rather than a breakdown. Positive AI/analyst narrative remains intact and recent news flow is supportive; social mentions are ramping, which can add near-term volatility but also demand. No stop or target has been hit, and horizon (7 days from 2025-11-26) has not expired. Risk/reward is still favorable toward the 248–255 target band, so the long thesis remains valid.
Confidence 88%
11/28/2025 05:32 AM
Hold
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 223
Horizon Days: 7
MACD still in bearish-momentum state (consolidation risk)
Short-interest trend rising, adding volatility risk
Early-hours pricing can be whippy; avoid chasing outside original plan
Trade remains active. Price has moved favorably from the 231.47 fill to ~237.69, staying well within the planned entry band and still below the 248–255 target zone. No stop-loss breach (223) and horizon (7 days from 2025-11-26) has not expired. Trend remains constructive: price is comfortably above all short and medium moving averages, RSI is mid-range, and MACD histogram remains mildly bearish, consistent with consolidation rather than a breakdown. News and sentiment remain positive with AI-demand narratives and rising social attention supporting the upside thesis. Given early progress toward target with no technical deterioration, keep the core plan but be prepared to tighten risk if price stalls near high 240s.
Confidence 85%
11/26/2025 19:32 PM
Hold
MACD_histogram_negative_short_term_bearish_momentum
price_extended_above_50dma_but_consolidating
short_interest_rising_but_squeeze_score_low
social_media_attention_trending_down
gap_up_vs_prior_close_could_invite_profit_taking
Trade is filled at 231.47 with last price ~231.10, essentially flat on day despite strong gap vs prior close. Price is holding above 10/20/50-day SMAs and 9/21/50-day EMAs with a still-bullish trend structure; MACD histogram remains negative, confirming digestion but not a breakdown. Catalyst and news flow remain positive (fresh bullish article on AI demand), while social-media attention is cooling, which slightly tempers the near-term squeeze potential. No stop-loss or target levels have been hit, and we are still at Day 1 of a 7-day horizon, so the plan remains intact. Given modest post-gap consolidation and still-bearish short-term momentum, confidence nudged slightly lower but setup remains constructive for the 1-week swing. Maintain current levels and monitor for either a decisive push toward 248+ or a loss of 225–223 support, which would indicate failed breakout and require honoring the stop.
Confidence 82%
11/26/2025 18:32 PM
Hold
MACD_histogram_negative_bearish_momentum
price_consolidating_near_entry
social_media_interest_cooling
short_interest_rising_but_no_squeeze_signal
Trade remains active and healthy. Price at ~230.96 is slightly below the 231.47 fill but solidly above all key moving averages (10/20/50 SMA/EMA), which continue to slope upward and confirm the uptrend. MACD is still in bearish-momentum mode, indicating ongoing digestion rather than a new breakdown, consistent with the original plan to buy into consolidation after a strong run. No stop (223) or target (248–255) has been hit, and we are still on day 1 of a 7‑day horizon with the thesis intact: positive AI/memory narrative and fresh bullish research support remain in place, and there is no contradictory news or momentum collapse. Given the minor red MACD and softening social buzz, I trim confidence slightly but keep the swing setup on. No adjustments to stops or targets yet: the trade is behaving within expectations for an early-stage consolidation and can be given room to work.
Confidence 84%
11/26/2025 17:32 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Entry Max: 236
Entry Min: 231.13
Stop Loss: 223
Horizon Days: 7
post-upgrade-volatility
extended-above-50dma
bearish-macd-momentum
rising-short-interest
after-hours-liquidity-risk
Trade is filled at 231.47 with price now ~230.80 in after-hours, still well within the planned entry band and comfortably above the 223 stop. Intraday action shows healthy follow-through versus prior close (224.53 to 230.80) with rising but still constructive momentum: RSI mid-50s and MACD histogram negative but improving from the original setup, consistent with a controlled digestion after a strong run. Trend remains firmly up with price holding well above 20/50-day averages, and the positive AI/memory-demand news flow is intact; nothing in the snapshot contradicts the original catalyst or technical thesis. Short interest and rising short-volume ratio continue to provide potential fuel if price pushes higher. No stop or target has been hit, and the 7-day horizon from 2025-11-26 is just starting, so the trade remains active. Given modestly better technicals but high expectations already priced in, confidence is kept high but nudged slightly down to 86 to reflect typical post-upgrade volatility risk. Risk-reward remains favorable; keep size disciplined and be prepared for fast swings around headlines.
Confidence 86%
11/26/2025 16:32 PM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 223
Horizon Days: 7
MACD_histogram_negative_bearish_momentum
short_interest_and_short_volume_trend_rising
price_extended_above_50dma_but_trend_intact
after_hours_liquidity_thin_for_intraday_stops
Trade is filled at 231.47 and price is holding slightly above entry at 230.84 after a strong up day (prior close 224.53). Trend remains firmly bullish with price well above all key moving averages (10/20/50 SMA and 9/21/50 EMA) and RSI in a healthy mid-50s zone. MACD histogram is still negative, consistent with the original thesis of a short-term digestion phase after a big run; nothing in the current technicals or news flow contradicts the bullish, AI-driven analyst-upgrade thesis. No stop-loss or target levels have been breached, and we are still on Day 1 of a 7-day horizon. Short interest and rising short-volume ratio still provide potential fuel for continuation and remain aligned with the original setup. Given we are near entry with supportive trend and fresh positive news, the trade should remain ACTIVE with only a modest, risk-aware adjustment to tighten the downside slightly to improve reward-to-risk without crowding normal volatility.
Confidence 88%
11/26/2025 15:32 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 221
Horizon Days: 7
MACD still in bearish-momentum regime (digestion not fully resolved)
Rising short interest could add volatility even if it ultimately supports a squeeze
Name is extended above longer-term moving averages, so sharp pullbacks to mid-220s are possible within trend
Trade remains active and technically healthy. Entry was filled at 231.47 and price is now ~233.10, comfortably within the 231–236 buy zone and well above the 221 stop. Trend stays strong with price above 10/20/50-day SMAs and EMAs; RSI in the mid‑50s suggests constructive momentum without being overbought, and the MACD histogram is still negative but improving versus the original setup, consistent with a digestion phase after a strong run. Fresh positive AI-demand news (Motley Fool 60% upside piece) supports the analyst-upgrade catalyst and does not contradict the thesis. Short-interest trend is rising modestly but not at squeeze extremes, which is still additive to upside risk/reward rather than a red flag at this stage. No explicit target or stop has been hit and the 7‑day horizon has barely started, so there is no rule-based reason to close. Maintain position and let the catalyst and trend play out, while staying disciplined around the original stop and targets.
Confidence 90%
11/26/2025 14:32 PM
Hold
MACD still in bearish momentum (digestive phase, monitor for failure of bounce)
Short-volume ratio rising; supportive of squeeze but can also add volatility
Price extended above 50-day; susceptible to fast pullbacks if AI/semis sentiment sours
Trade remains intact and is working as planned. Position was filled at 231.47 and price is now ~232.15, holding above the 20-day SMA and well above the 10/20/50-day EMAs, confirming the uptrend. MACD is still in bearish-momentum mode but the histogram is improving versus the prior setup, while RSI has firmed to ~55 and remains comfortably neutral, consistent with a controlled consolidation after a strong run. News flow stays positive (fresh AI-demand upside article) and there is no adverse catalyst or breakdown vs the thesis. Short-interest/short-volume remain elevated and rising, still supportive of a potential momentum extension if price pushes higher. With 7-day horizon just starting and price still well within the planned entry band, maintaining the original 248–255 target zone and 221 stop is appropriate. No rule-based exit has triggered (no stop loss breach, no target hit, horizon not reached). Risk remains acceptable; monitor any sharp reversal toward low-220s or a momentum collapse, but for now keep the trade on with slightly higher conviction given the confirmation of strength above prior resistance.
Confidence 88%
11/26/2025 13:32 PM
Hold
MACD still in bearish-momentum regime; intraday reversals are possible despite strong trend
Short-volume ratio is elevated vs 5-day average and rising, which can add volatility both ways
Social-media attention is cooling (ranking down), so near-term sentiment tailwind may be weaker
Position is extended above medium-term moving averages; a sharp mean-reversion test toward mid-220s cannot be ruled out
Trade is filled at 231.47 and price is currently ~230.79, essentially flat vs entry and solidly within the 231–236 entry band. The catalyst flow remains positive (fresh bullish AI-demand article) and the trend structure is intact: price is above 10/20/50-day SMAs and EMAs, RSI is mid-range (~55), and MACD is still in mild bearish-momentum digestion, which fits the original buy-the-consolidation thesis. No stop-loss (221) or target (248–255) has been reached, and we are still on Day 1 of a 7-day horizon, so rules argue clearly to keep the trade on. Intraday pullback from the morning strength is normal after a strong prior close; nothing in the data invalidates the thesis. Maintain risk discipline with the existing hard stop and upside targets, but be prepared to trim faster into the low 240s if momentum rolls over before targets are hit.
Confidence 86%
11/26/2025 12:32 PM
Hold
MACD still in bearish-momentum state (short-term digestion risk)
Social media mention trend down from prior day (less speculative support)
Upside targets (248–255) require continuation in an already extended uptrend
Position remains within planned entry band and is modestly green versus the 231.47 fill with no violation of stop (221) or attainment of profit targets (248–255). Intraday action is constructive: price sits slightly above the 20-day SMA and well above rising 50-day SMA/EMA, confirming the broader uptrend is intact. MACD remains in bearish-momentum mode but with the histogram less negative than at recommendation time, suggesting digestion rather than breakdown. Fresh positive AI-demand article today supports the upgrade-driven thesis, while social buzz has cooled but not reversed sentiment. No technical or news-based invalidation is visible. Maintain the original swing plan and allow the trade time to develop toward the 248–255 target zone, watching for any sharp reversal back through the 225–226 area as an early warning. Slight confidence uptick given price holding up well post-upgrades within a strong trend.
Confidence 84%
11/26/2025 11:32 AM
Hold
Exit Max: 255
Exit Min: 248
Stop Loss: 221
Horizon Days: 7
MACD still in bearish_momentum (possibility of further digestion/pullbacks before any leg higher)
Short-interest and short-volume-ratio trending higher (can amplify volatility both ways intraday)
Price extended above 50-day moving averages; any sharp reversal toward mean could test the 221 stop quickly
Trade is filled at 231.47 and price is currently 232.34, comfortably within the planned entry band and well above the 221 stop. Intraday action shows constructive follow-through on the analyst-upgrade/AI-memory thesis: price is above the 10/20/50-day SMAs and EMAs, RSI is a healthy 55 (no sign of exhaustion), and MACD remains in mild bearish-momentum digestion consistent with a post-run consolidation rather than a breakdown. No stop-loss or target rules have triggered, and the 7-day horizon from 2025-11-26 remains valid. Short-interest metrics are still rising but not at squeeze extremes, which aligns with the original idea of incremental fuel on further upside. Thesis remains intact with fresh positive news and orderly price action; keep the existing stop and targets and monitor for a push toward 248–255 over the coming days.
Confidence 82%
11/26/2025 10:32 AM
Hold
Price below entry but within normal intraday noise
MACD still in bearish momentum; rally may be choppy
Short-interest trend rising, which can add volatility both ways
Trade is filled at 231.47 and price is currently 229.32, modestly below entry but well above the 221 stop and still inside the initial buy zone. The overall uptrend remains intact with price above short- and medium-term moving averages and no negative news; MACD remains in bearish momentum, so the digestion phase cited in the thesis is still in play rather than clearly broken. No stop-loss or target levels have been touched, and we are well within the 7-day horizon. Social buzz is cooling somewhat, but the positive news tone and strong analyst backdrop are still aligned with the original thesis. Maintain the existing plan and risk levels while watching for any acceleration of downside momentum toward the low 220s.
Confidence 80%
Active Tracking
12/04/2025 12:00 AM
Exited: Expired
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:59 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:58 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:57 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:56 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:55 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:54 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:53 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:52 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:51 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:50 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:49 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:48 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:47 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:46 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:45 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:44 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:43 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:42 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:41 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
12/03/2025 11:40 PM
Active
$232.03 (-0.66%)
11/26/2025 09:41 AM
Entered
$231.47 (-0.90%)
Related News