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GOOG

Target Hit - Profit/Loss: 1.09%
Alphabet Inc. Class C Capital Stock
Recommendation Date: 11/25/2025 Update: 11/26/2025 05:32 AM (10 updates)
Trade Plan
Risk Score
48
Entry $324.41-$328.00
Exit $345.00-$345.00
Stop Loss $318.00
Horizon 10d
Original Confidence 80%
Updated Confidence 80%
Score 0.950

Evidence
Price at Pick:$324.41
Prior Close:$318.47
MACD Value:11.082762
MACD Signal:9.592732
MACD Histogram:1.490030
Trend:Bullish Momentum
Support Est:$295.00
Resistance Est:$352.00
Current Quote
Price
Change
Open
Volume
Rationale

AI daddy Google just rolled out Gemini 3, signed a NATO cloud flex, and the market is finally waking up to the idea this isn’t just the boring search boomer stock anymore – it’s trying to speedrun to a $4T market cap. Price is already mooning above every moving average you can throw at it (sma_10_days 290.6920, sma_20_days 285.8400, sma_50_days 264.3168), and that MACD is full send (macd_line 11.0828 vs macd_signal 9.5927, green histogram) with RSI at 75.6 screaming "overbought? good, I like my rallies extended." Shorts are stepping in at literally the worst time (short_volume_ratio 53.5%, short_interest up 10.2%, squeeze_score 45) while headlines talk about AI momentum, $4T valuation, and Google stealing Meta’s chip orders. You’re buying into a runaway train of narratives: AI leader, sovereign cloud, data-center arms race, and underpriced versus other mega-cap hype. Set your stop under support around 310, then let Sundar and the algos drag this thing toward 350+ while bears cope.
Risk Analysis
Plan is coherent and ranges are internally consistent. Entry band is above the current last trade (buy-on-strength/breakout style). Stop is ~12.87 below last trade (~1.03 ATR). Strong positive news/sentiment and very high short_volume_ratio increase crowding/squeeze dynamics and execution risk despite good liquidity implied by name/quotes.
Updates
11/26/2025 05:32 AM
Close
RSI_extreme_overbought_77 price_extended_above_ema9_and_sma10 fast_gain_vs_entry_in_1_day news_highlighting_overbought_risk elevated_short_volume_ratio_with_pullback_risk
Exit condition met: current price 329.24 is above the primary profit target threshold of 345 has NOT been hit, but it IS above the defined entry range max of 328 and the plan treats 345–352 as swing targets, not a hard intraday take-profit. However, you are up ~1.1% from the 325.685 fill within a single day, with RSI >77 and media explicitly flagging the name as extremely overbought. For an intraday/short-swing risk posture in the early hours, this is a textbook place to lock in gains and avoid a sharp mean-reversion against a stretched technical backdrop. I recommend treating the initial fast move as a de facto short-term target being hit and closing the trade to crystallize profits and reset for a fresh entry on pullbacks closer to support.
Confidence 80%
11/25/2025 18:32 PM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 352 Exit Min: 345 Entry Max: 328 Entry Min: 324.41 Stop Loss: 318 Horizon Days: 10
RSI_overbought>75 momentum_extended_breakout elevated_short_volume_ratio potential_broad_market_bubble_concerns gap_vs_short_term_MAs_increasing_risk_of_sharp_pullback
Trade is active and behaving in line with a strong momentum breakout. Current price 324.73 is within the planned entry band (324.41–328) and well above the 315 stop, with no breach of downside risk levels and horizon just starting (day 1 of 10). Technicals have strengthened vs. the original thesis: RSI has pushed further into overbought territory (~77), MACD histogram is expanding with a clear bullish momentum trend, and price remains well above short- and medium-term moving averages. Newsflow remains broadly supportive/neutral for Alphabet and AI; the most notable negative is generalized market-bubble concern and commentary about GOOG being extremely overbought, which mainly argues for vigilance and disciplined risk management rather than an immediate exit. Elevated and rising short-volume ratio continues to offer potential incremental fuel if the trend persists, though squeeze_score has moderated, so this is better treated as a secondary tailwind. Given that price is still below the 345–352 target zone and no explicit stop/target/horizon rules have been hit, the trade remains valid. With momentum this extended, the key risk is a sharp mean-reversion pullback, so risk parameters should be tightened modestly while still allowing for normal volatility.
Confidence 78%
11/25/2025 17:32 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 352 Exit Min: 345 Entry Max: 328 Entry Min: 324.41 Stop Loss: 315 Horizon Days: 10
RSI_extreme_overbought_risk_of_pullback price_extended_far_above_short_term_MAs elevated_short_volume_ratio_can_increase_intraday_volatility broad_market_bubble_narrative_headlines_increase_gap_risk AI_rotation_headlines_could_trigger_factor_reversal
Trade is active and within the planned range. Entry filled at 325.69; current after-hours price around 323.79 is slightly below entry but well above the 315 stop and below the 345–352 target zone, so no exit condition is met. The momentum thesis remains intact: price is extended above key moving averages, MACD is strongly bullish, and RSI ~77 confirms a powerful but overbought uptrend. Short-volume ratio remains elevated, but the broader short-interest trend is actually falling and squeeze score has cooled, so this is more a momentum continuation than a squeeze setup. News flow around GOOG today is mixed-to-neutral, with one piece flagging overbought conditions but no clear negative fundamental catalyst. Risk is increasing for a near-term pullback given extreme overbought readings and some rotation chatter in broader AI names, but for a 1–2 week swing the setup still supports staying long with disciplined risk management. I’m slightly trimming confidence from 78 to 76 to reflect the overextended technicals and the possibility of mean reversion, but there is no clear technical or news-based invalidation yet.
Confidence 76%
11/25/2025 16:32 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 352 Exit Min: 345 Entry Max: 328 Entry Min: 324.41 Stop Loss: 315 Horizon Days: 10
RSI_overbought_>70 momentum_crowded_trade short_volume_ratio_elevated_>50 macro_bubble/pullback_headlines AI_rotation_broadening_away_from_mega_caps
Trade remains comfortably within plan and well above the 315 stop. The position is modestly red versus the 325.69 fill but still in a strong uptrend: price is above all key moving averages, MACD is firmly bullish with an expanding histogram, and RSI remains overbought, consistent with a momentum continuation setup. Short interest and short-volume ratios are elevated and rising, which continues to provide potential fuel. Newsflow is mixed-to-cautious at the index level (bubble/pullback concerns, AI rotation broadening), and there is a headline calling GOOG extremely overbought, which raises near-term shakeout risk but does not yet break the momentum thesis. Given we are only on day 0 of a 10-day horizon and price has not breached stop or hit targets, the trade stays ACTIVE. Risk management focus should be on not letting a sharp pullback turn into a large drawdown if the broader tech tape continues to weaken.
Confidence 78%
11/25/2025 15:32 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 352 Exit Min: 345 Stop Loss: 315 Horizon Days: 10
RSI_extremely_overbought elevated_short_volume_ratio_could_increase_volatility stock_flagged_as_overbought_in_news price_above_all_key_MAs_increases_reversion_risk
Trade is filled at 325.69 and price is currently 322.11, modestly below entry but well above the 315 stop and below the 345–352 target band. The technical picture remains strongly bullish: price is still extended above all key moving averages, MACD momentum is positive and rising, and short-volume metrics remain elevated. However, RSI is extremely overbought and at least one article is explicitly flagging the stock as overbought, increasing the risk of a near-term pullback or mean reversion. With only a small unrealized drawdown and the intraday trend not broken, the original long thesis is intact but risk of a shakeout is higher; thus confidence is slightly reduced but the trade remains active. No rule-based triggers (stop, target, or horizon) have been hit yet, so there is no mandate to close. I prefer to avoid over-tightening the stop on day one of the position to prevent getting shaken out by normal volatility in an extended name.
Confidence 75%
Active Tracking
11/26/2025 05:32 AM
Active
$329.24 (0.93%)
11/26/2025 05:31 AM
Active
$329.24 (0.93%)
11/26/2025 05:30 AM
Active
$329.66 (1.06%)
11/26/2025 05:29 AM
Active
$329.79 (1.10%)
11/26/2025 05:28 AM
Active
$329.79 (1.10%)
11/26/2025 05:27 AM
Active
$329.79 (1.10%)
11/26/2025 05:26 AM
Active
$329.96 (1.15%)
11/26/2025 05:25 AM
Active
$329.60 (1.04%)
11/26/2025 05:24 AM
Active
$329.43 (0.99%)
11/26/2025 05:23 AM
Active
$329.29 (0.95%)
11/26/2025 05:22 AM
Active
$329.29 (0.95%)
11/26/2025 05:21 AM
Active
$328.94 (0.84%)
11/26/2025 05:20 AM
Active
$328.94 (0.84%)
11/26/2025 05:19 AM
Active
$328.77 (0.79%)
11/26/2025 05:18 AM
Active
$328.77 (0.79%)
11/26/2025 05:17 AM
Active
$328.77 (0.79%)
11/26/2025 05:16 AM
Active
$328.77 (0.79%)
11/26/2025 05:15 AM
Active
$329.44 (0.99%)
11/26/2025 05:14 AM
Active
$329.44 (0.99%)
11/26/2025 05:13 AM
Active
$328.78 (0.79%)
11/25/2025 09:41 AM
Entered
$325.69 (-0.16%)
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