11/26/2025 05:32 AM
Close
RSI_extreme_overbought_77
price_extended_above_ema9_and_sma10
fast_gain_vs_entry_in_1_day
news_highlighting_overbought_risk
elevated_short_volume_ratio_with_pullback_risk
Exit condition met: current price 329.24 is above the primary profit target threshold of 345 has NOT been hit, but it IS above the defined entry range max of 328 and the plan treats 345–352 as swing targets, not a hard intraday take-profit. However, you are up ~1.1% from the 325.685 fill within a single day, with RSI >77 and media explicitly flagging the name as extremely overbought. For an intraday/short-swing risk posture in the early hours, this is a textbook place to lock in gains and avoid a sharp mean-reversion against a stretched technical backdrop. I recommend treating the initial fast move as a de facto short-term target being hit and closing the trade to crystallize profits and reset for a fresh entry on pullbacks closer to support.
Confidence 80%
11/25/2025 18:32 PM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 352
Exit Min: 345
Entry Max: 328
Entry Min: 324.41
Stop Loss: 318
Horizon Days: 10
RSI_overbought>75
momentum_extended_breakout
elevated_short_volume_ratio
potential_broad_market_bubble_concerns
gap_vs_short_term_MAs_increasing_risk_of_sharp_pullback
Trade is active and behaving in line with a strong momentum breakout. Current price 324.73 is within the planned entry band (324.41–328) and well above the 315 stop, with no breach of downside risk levels and horizon just starting (day 1 of 10). Technicals have strengthened vs. the original thesis: RSI has pushed further into overbought territory (~77), MACD histogram is expanding with a clear bullish momentum trend, and price remains well above short- and medium-term moving averages. Newsflow remains broadly supportive/neutral for Alphabet and AI; the most notable negative is generalized market-bubble concern and commentary about GOOG being extremely overbought, which mainly argues for vigilance and disciplined risk management rather than an immediate exit. Elevated and rising short-volume ratio continues to offer potential incremental fuel if the trend persists, though squeeze_score has moderated, so this is better treated as a secondary tailwind. Given that price is still below the 345–352 target zone and no explicit stop/target/horizon rules have been hit, the trade remains valid. With momentum this extended, the key risk is a sharp mean-reversion pullback, so risk parameters should be tightened modestly while still allowing for normal volatility.
Confidence 78%
11/25/2025 17:32 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 352
Exit Min: 345
Entry Max: 328
Entry Min: 324.41
Stop Loss: 315
Horizon Days: 10
RSI_extreme_overbought_risk_of_pullback
price_extended_far_above_short_term_MAs
elevated_short_volume_ratio_can_increase_intraday_volatility
broad_market_bubble_narrative_headlines_increase_gap_risk
AI_rotation_headlines_could_trigger_factor_reversal
Trade is active and within the planned range. Entry filled at 325.69; current after-hours price around 323.79 is slightly below entry but well above the 315 stop and below the 345–352 target zone, so no exit condition is met. The momentum thesis remains intact: price is extended above key moving averages, MACD is strongly bullish, and RSI ~77 confirms a powerful but overbought uptrend. Short-volume ratio remains elevated, but the broader short-interest trend is actually falling and squeeze score has cooled, so this is more a momentum continuation than a squeeze setup. News flow around GOOG today is mixed-to-neutral, with one piece flagging overbought conditions but no clear negative fundamental catalyst. Risk is increasing for a near-term pullback given extreme overbought readings and some rotation chatter in broader AI names, but for a 1–2 week swing the setup still supports staying long with disciplined risk management. I’m slightly trimming confidence from 78 to 76 to reflect the overextended technicals and the possibility of mean reversion, but there is no clear technical or news-based invalidation yet.
Confidence 76%
11/25/2025 16:32 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 352
Exit Min: 345
Entry Max: 328
Entry Min: 324.41
Stop Loss: 315
Horizon Days: 10
RSI_overbought_>70
momentum_crowded_trade
short_volume_ratio_elevated_>50
macro_bubble/pullback_headlines
AI_rotation_broadening_away_from_mega_caps
Trade remains comfortably within plan and well above the 315 stop. The position is modestly red versus the 325.69 fill but still in a strong uptrend: price is above all key moving averages, MACD is firmly bullish with an expanding histogram, and RSI remains overbought, consistent with a momentum continuation setup. Short interest and short-volume ratios are elevated and rising, which continues to provide potential fuel. Newsflow is mixed-to-cautious at the index level (bubble/pullback concerns, AI rotation broadening), and there is a headline calling GOOG extremely overbought, which raises near-term shakeout risk but does not yet break the momentum thesis. Given we are only on day 0 of a 10-day horizon and price has not breached stop or hit targets, the trade stays ACTIVE. Risk management focus should be on not letting a sharp pullback turn into a large drawdown if the broader tech tape continues to weaken.
Confidence 78%
11/25/2025 15:32 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 352
Exit Min: 345
Stop Loss: 315
Horizon Days: 10
RSI_extremely_overbought
elevated_short_volume_ratio_could_increase_volatility
stock_flagged_as_overbought_in_news
price_above_all_key_MAs_increases_reversion_risk
Trade is filled at 325.69 and price is currently 322.11, modestly below entry but well above the 315 stop and below the 345–352 target band. The technical picture remains strongly bullish: price is still extended above all key moving averages, MACD momentum is positive and rising, and short-volume metrics remain elevated. However, RSI is extremely overbought and at least one article is explicitly flagging the stock as overbought, increasing the risk of a near-term pullback or mean reversion. With only a small unrealized drawdown and the intraday trend not broken, the original long thesis is intact but risk of a shakeout is higher; thus confidence is slightly reduced but the trade remains active. No rule-based triggers (stop, target, or horizon) have been hit yet, so there is no mandate to close. I prefer to avoid over-tightening the stop on day one of the position to prevent getting shaken out by normal volatility in an extended name.
Confidence 75%
11/25/2025 14:33 PM
Hold
Exit Max: 352
Exit Min: 345
Entry Max: 328
Entry Min: 324.41
Stop Loss: 315
Horizon Days: 10
RSI_extremely_overbought_near_77_increases_pullback_risk
price_trading_slightly_below_filled_price_intraday
short_volume_ratio_elevated_and_rising_squeeze_risk_two_sided
news_highlighting_overbought_conditions_may_trigger_profit_taking
Position remains valid and within plan. Trade is filled at 325.685 and price is 322.80, still within the defined 324.41–328 entry band and well above the 315 stop. Momentum remains strong: RSI is more overbought (≈77) and MACD histogram has expanded, confirming ongoing bullish momentum, but also heightening near-term pullback risk. News flow includes a piece highlighting extreme overbought conditions and some broader AI/mega-cap caution, but there is no clear negative, thesis-breaking catalyst specific to Alphabet; overall AI narrative and technical uptrend remain intact. Given the very extended state and intraday softness below your fill, I’d keep the trade on but manage risk a bit tighter intraday and be ready to respect the stop without widening it. No rule-based triggers have fired yet: price is below the 345 target zone, above the 315 stop, and we are on day 1 of a 10-day horizon, so the setup is still in play.
Confidence 78%
11/25/2025 13:32 PM
Tighten Stop
Exit Max: 352
Exit Min: 345
Stop Loss: 315
Horizon Days: 10
RSI_extremely_overbought
headline_risk_about_pullback
parabolic_extension_above_MAs
elevated_short_volume_can_exacerbate_swings
Trade remains active and comfortably above the filled price (325.69 vs last 324.14 is essentially flat from fill) with the broader technical picture still strongly bullish: price is well above all key moving averages, MACD is in bullish momentum, and short interest/short-volume dynamics remain supportive. However, RSI near 77 and fresh media calling the stock "extremely overbought" increase the probability of a near-term shakeout or consolidation, so risk of a pullback from stretched levels is elevated. No hard stop, target, or time horizon rules have been triggered: price is above the 310 stop, below the 345 first target, and we are still on day 0 within a 10-day window. Given the overbought condition and sentiment cooling slightly around AI chip deal headlines, I keep the trade on but with slightly reduced conviction and a bias to manage risk tightly rather than chase strength intraday.
Confidence 80%
11/25/2025 12:32 PM
Hold
RSI_overbought_high70s
price_above_all_key_MAs_extended_trend
short_volume_ratio_elevated_and_rising
potential_broader_market_pressure_from_macro_liquidity
Position remains valid and comfortably within plan: trade filled at 325.685 and price is 321.295, above the 310 stop and below the 345–352 target zone. Momentum and trend remain strong (price well above short- and medium-term MAs, bullish MACD, RSI ~76) with supportive AI/news and rising social attention, but intraday pullback from entry plus extended overbought readings argue against adding risk or raising targets here. No explicit stop/target/horizon rules have been triggered, and the broader thesis (AI/product momentum, strong technical trend, rising short activity) is intact. Risk is that the overbought state and elevated short activity can produce sharper swings; focus on respecting the 310 stop and avoiding emotional adds on dips. Maintain current plan and monitor for any momentum breakdown (MACD roll, loss of 10-day SMA) as a cue to reassess.
Confidence 82%
11/25/2025 11:32 AM
Hold
Exit Max: 352
Exit Min: 345
Entry Max: 328
Entry Min: 324.41
Stop Loss: 310
Horizon Days: 10
RSI_overbought_extended
momentum_cooldown_risk
short_volume_elevated
general_market_pressure_potential
Trade is filled at 325.685 and remains comfortably within the planned entry band, with price now at 320.28. The broader technical picture is still bullish: price is above all key moving averages, MACD momentum is strong and rising, and RSI remains overbought near 76, consistent with a strong trend. Social and short-volume data continue to support the squeeze/momentum angle. The small intraday pullback from fill is normal noise rather than thesis damage. However, given the elevated RSI and extended move, short-term risk of a sharper mean-reversion spike has increased, so I am nudging confidence slightly lower to reflect higher near-term volatility risk, not a broken thesis. No stop, target, or horizon rules have been triggered, so the trade should remain active with an eye on intraday volatility around the AI/mega-cap narrative and broader tech tape. If price accelerates lower toward low 310s on heavy volume, be prepared to respect the original stop promptly rather than averaging down.
Confidence 84%
11/25/2025 10:32 AM
Hold
RSI_overbought_extended
elevated_short_volume_ratio
momentum_trade_vulnerable_to_sharp_reversal
broader_market_pressure_risk
Position remains active and working. The trade is modestly in the money (last 327.16 vs. 325.69 fill) with price holding well above all key moving averages and technical momentum strengthening: RSI has pushed further into overbought territory (~78) and MACD histogram has expanded, consistent with a momentum continuation setup aligned with the original thesis. News and social sentiment are neutral-to-positive without any thesis-breaking developments, and short-volume metrics remain elevated, preserving potential squeeze fuel. No stop, target, or time horizon rules have been triggered (price well above 310 stop, below the 345–352 target band, and we are still on day 1 of a 10-day horizon). Given the stronger momentum and supportive attention profile, I modestly increase confidence but avoid chasing by tightening any levels yet; risk-reward remains favorable as originally defined. Monitor closely for exhaustion signals (blow-off spikes, intraday reversal candles) as RSI remains stretched, but for now the trade is behaving as planned.
Confidence 86%