Plan is a contrarian intraday bounce on Novo Nordisk after a steep slide driven by negative drug-trial sentiment. 1) Setup & price context - Current price: 43.78 vs prior close 47.63, a gap-down of ~8.1% from Friday’s close ( (47.63-43.78)/47.63 ≈ 8.1% ). - Today’s low already tagged a new 52-week low at 43.37, so we’re trading at the extreme of the range. - 1M: -10.52%, 3M: -15.46%, 6M: -29.28%, 1Y: -53.59% – strong, extended downtrend with capitulation vibes. 2) Technicals: oversold but showing early momentum turn - Price is far below key moving averages: SMA10 48.30, SMA20 48.84, SMA50 53.91, EMA9 48.22, EMA21 49.53. This confirms a sharp dislocation; mean reversion trades can work intraday when selling exhausts. - RSI 39.35: not yet extreme, but in lower band; combined with the big gap, that’s sufficient for an oversold bounce setup. - MACD line -1.65 vs signal -1.87, histogram +0.22 with state “bullish_momentum” – momentum has just started to inflect upward despite price still near the lows, supporting a potential intraday reversal attempt. 3) Sentiment & news - Social attention rank #5 with a strong positive change in ranking (up 19 places) and “up” mention trend – indicates retail focus right when the move is most stretched. - Recent articles characterize the sell-off as increasingly overdone and highlight long-term strength: • “Novo’s Worst Year Is Your Best Opportunity” (Seeking Alpha) argues for a GARP setup and strong growth catalysts. • “Novo Nordisk: The Sell-Off Is Getting Absolutely Ridiculous” (Seeking Alpha) explicitly frames the current drawdown as excessive. - Additional news flow around deals and sector peers (e.g., Omeros deal, Eli Lilly strength) supports that the core GLP‑1/obesity franchise remains strategic and valuable, suggesting the Alzheimer’s trial disappointment is being reassessed as a non-lethal blow. - Short interest days-to-cover is moderate at 2.35, with short volume ratio 34.66% and a falling short-volume trend vs 5d; this is not a squeeze play, but shorts may be less aggressive on fresh lows, helping a bounce. 4) Liquidity & volatility - Average 20-day volume ~19.7M and today’s volume ~20.1M – ample for intraday trading. - ATR14 ≈ 1.70, so a normal day’s range is about 1.7 points (~3.9% of current price). After an ~8% gap-down and a fresh 52-week low, a 4–6% bounce intraday is within realized-volatility norms, especially if dip buyers step in. 5) Trade levels & risk/reward - Entry: 43.70–44.00, just above the 52-week low (43.37) but still deeply discounted vs prior close. This gives room for a quick flush test toward the low while avoiding chasing too high. - Exit (target): 45.70–46.20. • From entry_min 43.70 to exit_min 45.70 is a 2.00 gain: 2.00 / 43.70 ≈ 4.6% upside. • To exit_max 46.20: 2.50 / 43.70 ≈ 5.7% upside. This meets the 4–5% target window with some extension potential. - Stop loss: 42.70 (about 1.0 below entry_min), giving downside ~1.0 / 43.70 ≈ 2.3%. - Reward:risk at the conservative target is ~4.6% : 2.3% ≈ 2:1, acceptable for a day-trade. 6) Intraday time horizon & management - Time horizon: 2–6 hours post-open, aiming to capture the initial fade-and-bounce pattern once opening volatility settles. - Ideal flow: early flush or retest near 43.5–43.7, stabilization with higher lows on 5–15 minute chart, then a grind higher as shorts cover and value buyers step in. - If price fails to reclaim 44 quickly and starts building lower highs near 43.5 with rising volume, risk of a trend-down continuation increases; in that case stop at 42.7 keeps the loss constrained. 7) Why not GOOG or NVDA from this pack? - GOOG is extended to all-time highs with RSI ~68 and MACD already strongly bullish; after a big run (3M +43.26%, 6M +76.69%), the risk of a mean-reversion pullback intraday is high, making it less ideal for a fresh long scalp aiming for another 4–5% the same day. - NVDA shows bearish MACD momentum and recent multi-day weakness (5D -5.94%), with sentiment over AI froth lingering; while it can move 4–5%, current momentum is still down, so a contrarian long has lower probability. Given NVO’s deeply oversold state, improving intraday momentum, strong liquidity, and narrative that the sell-off may be overdone, a controlled bounce trade with 4–6% upside and ~2–3% downside is reasonable with ~78% confidence, contingent on confirming stabilization after the open.