NVDA (Nvidia Corp Recommendation

11/25/2025 09:32 AM

Close

Stop Loss: 173.5

Stop-loss level breached or effectively tagged; trade must be considered stopped out per rules Price now decisively below short- and medium-term trend levels (9/21 EMA, 10/20/50 SMA/EMA) with bearish MACD momentum Short-swing post-earnings mean-reversion thesis has not materialized within predefined risk parameters Elevated/recently rising short interest can increase intraday volatility against a broken intraday setup

Position should be treated as stopped out. Filled long at 180.45 with an explicit stop at 173.50; the latest last price is 174.01, which implies the stop level was breached intraday or is effectively within a minimal tick of being hit. Per rules, a stop-loss breach requires classifying the trade as STOP_HIT rather than keeping it active, even though the news flow and AI narrative remain broadly positive. Technically, price is now clearly below all key short-/medium-term moving averages (9/21 EMA and 10/20/50 SMA/EMA), MACD remains in bearish momentum, and the post-earnings mean-reversion thesis is no longer playing out within the defined risk band. While the broader fundamental story is intact, the intended short-swing post-earnings setup has failed risk-wise. Stand aside, reassess for a fresh setup rather than widening risk after a stop event.

Confidence 20%

11/25/2025 08:32 AM

Hold

price_below_short_and_medium_moving_averages bearish_macd_momentum_persists position_drawdown_from_entry short_interest_rising_but_squeeze_score_low reliant_on_broad_ai_sentiment_for_rebound

Trade remains within the original risk parameters. The stop at 173.5 has not been breached (last ~174.91), and price has not reached the 191–195 target zone. We are modestly underwater from the 180.45 fill, with price now clearly below short and medium MAs/EMAs and MACD still in bearish territory, indicating ongoing downside/sideways pressure. However, RSI has ticked up toward mid-40s (not oversold or broken), news flow is broadly positive/constructive on AI and Nvidia, and there is no clear thesis invalidation or adverse company-specific news in the feed. Given the combination of modest technical deterioration and supportive news/sentiment, the setup is still viable but slightly weaker than at entry. Maintain the current plan with tighter risk focus; no forced de-risking yet as long as 173.5 holds on a closing basis during regular hours.

Confidence 56%

11/25/2025 07:32 AM

Hold

Exit Max: 195 Exit Min: 191 Stop Loss: 173.5 Horizon Days: 5

price_below_short_term_MAs bearish_macd_momentum open_loss_vs_entry short_interest_rising_but_not_extreme maintain_hard_stop_at_173_50 do_not_add_until_momentum_stabilizes

Position remains within the original risk envelope: price at 176.09 is below entry (180.45) but above the defined stop at 173.50, and well below the 191–195 target band. No hard rule (stop/target/horizon) has triggered. Technically, NVDA is still trading under short MAs/EMAs with bearish MACD, so near-term momentum is negative, but RSI ~45 is neutral and not yet capitulatory; this looks like a continued pullback rather than a clear breakdown, especially with broadly positive, AI-focused news flow and CEO commentary supporting the longer thesis. Given the intraday/short-swing mandate and early-hours context, there is no justification for widening risk. Maintain the existing stop at 173.50 to cap downside if the pullback extends, and keep the 191–195 target range unchanged. Slightly reduce confidence to reflect the loss of support near the 180 area and continued bearish momentum, while acknowledging that the post-earnings and AI narrative remains intact.

Confidence 61%

11/25/2025 06:32 AM

Hold

Exit Max: 193 Exit Min: 189 Stop Loss: 173.5 Horizon Days: 4

PRICE_BELOW_FILLEDBY_~2_8_PERCENT BEARISH_MOMENTUM_MACD_NEGATIVE_BELOW_SIGNAL PRICE_BELOW_10_20_50_DAY_AVERAGES ELEVATED_SHORT_INTEREST_RISING TIGHT_NEARBY_STOP_AT_173_5 REDUCED_R_R_FROM_ORIGINAL_TARGETS

Trade remains within plan but is under short-term pressure. Price at ~175.41 is below the 180.45 fill and under all short/medium MAs and EMAs, confirming ongoing bearish momentum (negative MACD with bearish trend, RSI mid‑40s). However, the stop-loss at 173.5 has NOT been breached, and upside catalyst/news flow remains broadly positive with CEO commentary and multiple bullish articles, plus social interest still ranked #1. Short interest is elevated but not escalating further, and short-volume trends are flat rather than spiking. Given a 5‑day horizon from 2025‑11‑24, there is still time for a mean‑reversion attempt toward the low‑190s, but we should respect downside risk closely. No explicit invalidation from news, but the technical picture has weakened enough that we should avoid widening risk. Maintain the position with a tight leash into the remainder of the week.

Confidence 64%

11/25/2025 05:32 AM

Tighten Stop

Exit Max: 195 Exit Min: 191 Stop Loss: 173.5 Horizon Days: 5

price_below_short_and_medium_term_moving_averages bearish_macd_momentum_persisting position_underwater_vs_entry rising_short_interest_could_increase_volatility headline_risk_from_high_profile_shorts_like_burry reduced_upside_window_given_short_swing_horizon

Trade remains active: price at ~175.70 is above the 173.50 stop and below the 194–198 profit zone, with horizon (7 days from 2025-11-24) still intact. The entry at 180.45 is now modestly underwater, and the stock is trading further below short-term EMAs/SMAs, with MACD still in bearish territory. However, RSI around 45 is not broken, news flow is mixed but not thesis-shattering (some positive AI/growth pieces offset by Burry’s negative commentary), and the broader post-earnings fundamental thesis hasn’t been invalidated. This looks like a deeper pullback within the context of the original mean-reversion plan rather than a structural breakdown. Given increased downside volatility and rising short interest, I’m nudging confidence down slightly from 72 to 68 and tightening risk parameters to respect intraday/short-swing discipline.

Confidence 68%

11/24/2025 19:32 PM

Hold

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 194 Stop Loss: 173.5 Horizon Days: 7

bearish_macd_momentum price_below_short_mas high_volume_on_pullback rising_short_interest prominent_bearish_commentary(Burry) post-earnings-volatility

Position remains valid: price at ~179.39 is slightly below entry (180.45) but well above the 173.5 stop, and nowhere near the 194–198 target band. The thesis (strong earnings, Anthropic/AI tailwinds, BofA defense) is still broadly intact, and news flow is mostly positive-to-mixed despite a notable bearish Burry headline. Technically, momentum is still weak (bearish MACD, price below 9/21 EMAs and 10/20 SMAs), so the name is in a pullback/repair phase rather than a confirmed reversal, with RSI mid-40s signaling no major breakdown yet. Within a 7-day horizon from 2025-11-24, there is still time for a post-earnings mean reversion toward the mid/high 190s, but the extended close below short MAs and heavy volume argue for slightly reduced conviction. Keep risk defined via the original stop and avoid adding until momentum improves (MACD flattening and a reclaim of the 9-day EMA on closing basis). If price closes decisively below 176–177 with momentum worsening, be prepared to exit early rather than wait for the hard stop at 173.5.

Confidence 72%

11/24/2025 18:32 PM

Hold

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 192 Stop Loss: 173.5 Horizon Days: 7

price_below_short_and_medium_term_moving_averages bearish_macd_momentum rising_short_interest_positioning_risk headline_risk_from_high_profile_short_seller high_intraday_volatility_near_post_earnings squeeze_score_only_moderate_despite_rising_SI

Trade remains active. Price at ~179.10 is above the 173.50 stop and below the 194–198 target band, so neither stop nor target has triggered, and only day 0 of a 7‑day horizon has elapsed. The stock is still trading under the short EMAs/SMAs with bearish MACD, confirming near-term downside momentum, but RSI has lifted toward mid‑40s and the news flow is net positive despite some headline risk (e.g., Burry critique and mention of an earnings ‘red flag’). The fundamental post‑earnings thesis (strong growth, Anthropic deal, ongoing AI leadership) remains intact; the pullback appears positioning/valuation driven rather than a structural break. Given elevated volatility and rising short interest but only a moderate squeeze setup, risk/reward is still acceptable but not compelling enough to raise conviction; I’m trimming confidence slightly to reflect technical weakness and crowded positioning risk. No rule-based exit is warranted yet; continue to monitor reactions to follow‑up earnings commentary and any change in AI sentiment over the next few sessions.

Confidence 75%

11/24/2025 17:32 PM

Tighten Stop

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 194 Stop Loss: 173.5 Horizon Days: 7

post-earnings volatility elevated bearish MACD momentum persists rising short interest/positioning risk high social/media focus may amplify swings

Trade remains comfortably within plan: filled at 180.45, last at ~182.05, well above the 172.5 stop and below the 194–198 target zone. None of the explicit rules (stop, target, or 7-day horizon) have been triggered on Day 0. Price has reclaimed the 180 area and is nudging back toward short EMAs while still below all key moving averages, which is consistent with a developing mean-reversion attempt rather than a breakdown. MACD is still bearish but histogram is slightly less extreme than in the original snapshot, and RSI has lifted from ~41 to ~45, indicating stabilizing momentum after the earnings flush. News skew is net positive around AI and Anthropic, but there is some positioning and valuation concern plus a public Burry short critique, which can keep intraday volatility high; none of it clearly invalidates the earnings-driven long thesis over a 1-week window. Volume is heavy, consistent with a high-liquidity, post-catalyst battle rather than a dead tape. With price closer to the midpoint between stop and target and the thesis intact, the risk/reward remains acceptable for a short-swing hold, but we should respect the still-bearish momentum by not loosening risk parameters.

Confidence 78%

11/24/2025 16:32 PM

Hold

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 194 Stop Loss: 172.5 Horizon Days: 7

bearish_MACD_and_momentum price_still_below_key_short_MAs rising_short_interest high_profile_bearish_commentary_(Burry) post-earnings_volatility

Trade remains valid and comfortably inside the original range. Position filled at 180.45; last ~182.44 is a modest unrealized gain with no breach of stop (172.5) and no tag of the profit target zone (194–198). Intraday reaction post-earnings is constructive: price reclaimed above prior close and is inching back toward the cluster of short EMAs/SMAs, while RSI has firmed from low 40s to mid‑40s. MACD and histogram remain bearish, so the mean‑reversion thesis is still developing rather than realized. News flow is mixed but net supportive: several positive/constructive AI and Nvidia‑specific takes offset the Burry negative note and general positioning/valuation worries. Social and liquidity metrics remain extremely strong. Given this is day 0 of a 7‑day horizon, there is no time‑based pressure to exit. Risk remains that bearish momentum persists and market stays focused on positioning risk; however, nothing in price or news clearly invalidates the post‑earnings rebound thesis. Keep risk tight around the existing stop and monitor whether price can push back toward the 185–188 EMA band over the next 1–2 sessions; failure there with continued bearish momentum would warrant reducing risk or closing early.

Confidence 76%

11/24/2025 15:32 PM

Hold

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 194 Stop Loss: 172.5 Horizon Days: 7

price_below_short_term_moving_averages bearish_macd_momentum short_interest_rising high_single_name_headline_risk post-earnings-volatility

Trade is filled at 180.45 and is currently working: price ~181.40 is above entry, well above the 172.50 stop, and still below the 194–198 target zone. Post-earnings fundamental thesis remains intact with multiple positive AI/Anthropic-related headlines; negative Burry commentary adds positioning risk but does not structurally break the thesis. Technically, price is still below short EMAs/SMAs with a bearish MACD, but RSI has lifted toward mid-40s from low 40s, indicating modest improvement off the lows and room for continued mean reversion into your 7-day window. No rule-based trigger for stop, target, or horizon yet, so position stays ACTIVE. Given elevated short interest and strong news flow but ongoing bearish momentum, I keep confidence high but shade it slightly down from 80 to 78 to reflect headline/positioning risk and the fact that we remain below key moving averages.

Confidence 78%

11/24/2025 14:32 PM

Hold

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 194 Stop Loss: 172.5 Horizon Days: 7

bearish_macd_trend_persists price_below_short_term_moving_averages headline_risk_from_high_profile_short_seller short_interest_rising_but_not_extreme intraday_volatility_risk

Trade remains valid: price is 181.69, comfortably above the 172.50 stop and below the 194–198 target band, with only a few hours elapsed in a 7-day horizon. Post-earnings fundamental thesis is intact and news skew remains broadly positive despite a negative Burry headline, which is more about sentiment/positioning than a factual deterioration. Technically, NVDA is still below short EMAs/SMAs and MACD remains in bearish momentum, but RSI has lifted from ~41 to ~45 and price is modestly green vs prior close, consistent with a tentative intraday stabilization rather than a breakdown. Elevated but not extreme short interest can still support a squeeze on any follow-through. Given intraday risk and visible overhead resistance near mid-180s, keep the original stop and targets but start thinking tactically: if price stalls hard near 186–188 (EMA9/SMA10/EMA21 cluster) with worsening momentum, be ready to trim rather than wait for full targets. For now, no rule-based exit (no stop/target/horizon breach), so position stays ACTIVE with slightly reduced confidence to reflect ongoing bearish momentum and headline risk.

Confidence 80%

11/24/2025 13:32 PM

Hold

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 194 Stop Loss: 172.5 Horizon Days: 7

short_interest_rising bearish_macd price_below_short_term_moving_averages headline_risk_Burry_negative_NVDA_piece high_intraday_volatility_possible

Position remains within the original risk framework and is working in your favor so far. Filled at 180.45, last 182.30, with no breach of the 172.50 stop and still below the 194–198 target zone. Price is rebounding from the morning levels and is slightly closer to the 9/10-day moving averages but still below all key short MAs/EMAs, consistent with a pullback in a broader uptrend. MACD remains bearish but the histogram has improved modestly versus the original snapshot; RSI has nudged up from ~41 to ~45, signaling stabilizing, not collapsing, momentum. News flow is net positive/constructive around AI and Nvidia/Anthropic, though the Burry attack is a headline risk that can add intraday volatility. Given day 0 of a 7-day horizon and post-earnings mean-reversion thesis, there is no rule-based trigger to close. Maintain the trade with stops unchanged and be prepared for intraday swings around AI sentiment and any follow-through from the Burry piece.

Confidence 82%

11/24/2025 12:32 PM

Hold

Bearish short‑term momentum (negative MACD, price below short/medium MAs) — expect choppy path to target Large, crowded AI leadership name; positioning risk can magnify intraday swings even on good news Stop at 172.5 is ~4.4% below current price and ~4.4% below fill, leaving room but also meaningful downside if sellers resume Short interest is elevated but not extreme; squeeze potential exists but should not be assumed as base case

Trade remains comfortably within plan. Position was filled at 180.45 and price is now 182.50, above entry but still well below the 9/21 EMA cluster and 10/20 SMA resistance, which preserves the mean‑reversion upside to the 194–198 target band. Momentum is still bearish (negative MACD, histogram, sub‑50 RSI), but RSI has ticked up from ~41 to ~45 and price is pushing away from the lows, consistent with an early stabilization rather than a breakdown. No stop (172.5) or target (≥194) levels have been touched, and horizon (7 days from 2025‑11‑24) is intact. News and sentiment remain strongly positive around AI and the Anthropic deal, with no thesis‑breaking headlines; social ranking remains #1 and short metrics are steady, giving potential for forced buying on strength. Given the supportive news backdrop and early intraday follow‑through off the fill, I keep the trade ACTIVE and slightly increase confidence, but I do not chase higher or move stops yet to avoid over‑tightening against ongoing volatility.

Confidence 84%

11/24/2025 11:32 AM

Hold

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 194 Stop Loss: 172.5 Horizon Days: 7

price_below_short_term_MAs bearish_macd_momentum short_interest_rising high_short_volume_ratio post-earnings_volatility

Trade is working and remains well within the original risk parameters. Position was filled at 180.45 and last is 181.83, modestly green with no stress on the 172.50 stop and still below the 194–198 target zone. Intraday, price is reclaiming some ground after the earnings pullback, but remains under the short moving averages (9/10/21-day) with MACD negative and bearish histogram. RSI has ticked up from ~41 to ~44, consistent with early mean-reversion rather than exhausted upside. News and sentiment are strongly supportive, with multiple fresh positive AI- and Anthropic-related headlines and social rank pinned at #1, aligning with the original thesis of a fundamentally strong, sentiment-driven rebound. No rule-based exit is triggered (stop, target, or horizon), and there is no evidence yet of thesis invalidation or momentum collapse beyond the expected post-earnings digestion. Maintain the trade with slightly higher conviction given the positive news flow and small intraday follow-through, but no need to over-optimize levels on day 1 of a 7-day swing.

Confidence 82%

11/24/2025 10:32 AM

Hold

Exit Max: 198 Exit Min: 194 Entry Max: 182 Entry Min: 179 Stop Loss: 172.5 Horizon Days: 7

bearish_short-term_momentum price_below_short_EMAs_and_SMAs elevated_short_interest_but_not_extreme intraday_volatility_risk entry_band_slightly_above_spot_price

Trade has not been filled yet; last price 178.21 remains between the original entry band 180.18–183 (slightly below entry_min) and well above the stop at 172.5. No stop, target, or horizon rule has been triggered on this same‑day setup (horizon 7 days from 2025-11-24). Technically, price is still below the short EMAs/SMAs with bearish MACD and sub‑50 RSI, confirming ongoing pullback and negative momentum intraday, but news and sentiment remain broadly positive around AI and the Anthropic deal, with no thesis-breaking headlines. Short interest remains elevated but not extreme, and social attention stays at rank 1, consistent with the original narrative. Given the momentum deterioration and price slipping further below the 9/21‑day EMAs versus the original snapshot, confidence is trimmed slightly but the overall post‑earnings mean‑reversion thesis over a 1‑week horizon is intact. I would keep the trade plan ACTIVE but be patient on fills: you can either wait for strength back above ~180 to confirm stabilization or accept a slightly lower entry band if you are comfortable with a bit more volatility risk.

Confidence 80%